John Ryan
BYU vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming +13
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wyoming as they face BYU set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Wyoming will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 64-24 ATS for 73% winners since 1999. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. AiS shows an 85% probability that Wyoming will gain between 150 and 200 net passing yards; 83% probability that they will rush for 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt; 86% probability that BYU will rush for 100 to 150 yards. Note that BYU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 2 seasons. BYU is also 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. mistake prone teams getting nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons. Take Wyoming.
Tom Stryker
UTEP vs. Tulane
Play: UTEP -6.5
With a 2-14 SU and 3-12 ATS record in its last 16 games, Tulane has certainly been taking it on the chin lately The Green Wave haven’t had any success at home either notching a woeful 1-7 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in their last eight tries. Texas El Paso enters this CUSA affair off its stunning home loss to UAB and the Miners will be looking to take their frustrations out here.
Believe it or not, there is actually a strong late-season college system that favors UTEP on Saturday afternoon. Since 1980, game nine or 10 road favorites priced at -15 or less are an outstanding 105-54 ATS provided they carry a won/loss percentage between .125 and less than .500 and their opponent is a losing team. On Saturday, Texas El Paso and Utah State fit this system perfectly. (Colorado State would apply too if the Rams were favored at Hawaii.)
Defensively, the Miners have struggled. UTEP has allowed an average of 33.9 points and 470.1 total yards per game this season. That’s bad enough to rank the Miners 116th in the nation in total defense. That fact is noted. However, under the direction of redshirt freshman quarterback Ryan Griffin, Tulane’s offense has been stuck in neutral. The Green Wave has averaged only 13.4 points and 314 total yards per game this season. That’s a far cry from UTEP’s offensive averages of 26.0 points and 378 total yards per game.
Tulane has lost its last four games by the combined score of 160-32! Even though the Green Wave will move the football a little better against this soft Miners defense, Tulane won’t be able to match points with an El Paso offense that is led by quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and RB Donald Buckram. Take UTEP!
Craig Trapp
Connecticut vs. Cincinnati U
Play: Under 51.5
Both of these teams have good defenses and UCONN played great last year verse Cincy. UCONN knows they can't outscore the Bearcats so they must run the ball and use up the clock. The Bearcats are going to be motivated as last year this team upset the Cats and they ran the ball right down the field. Today the Cats will be going for revenge and would not be surprised if Cincy holds them under 14. Cincy is a great Under team recently going under 5 of last 6 games. Everything points to the under as the Cats cruise to an easy victory.
Rob Vinciletti
Utah State vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii +1
Hawaii is not as good as in past years,however they should be able to get this one today at home. Utah.St falls in to a negative system of mine that plays against certain road favorites off a road dog loss and cover if they are taking on an opponent off a road dog loss and cover.This system is 3-16 ats for road favorites like Utah.St since 1980. Both teams suffered tough road losses last week. This week Hawaii is a 2 point dog to a Utah.St team that has lost all 4 times on the road this year and the last 10 road games going back to 2007. They are just 1-6 against the spread as road favorites of less than 5 points. Hawaii has revenge for a loss last year in Utah where they actually had more yards 374-368. Look for a nice home win here tonight by the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
FairWay Jay
Arkansas -7
South Carolina is perceived as a pretty strong defensive team, but some disturbing numbers are appearing as the season wears on against the Gamecocks. So. Carolinas run defense the last four games has allowed 205, 264 (6.9 ypr), 141 and 199 yards rushing. Adding to their struggles is an offense that has scored just 13, 14 and 6 points the last three weeks. Steve Spurriers team is wearing down and now they go on the road for a second straight week and play their first game on artificial turf against the SECs top dog in yards per play (6.8) and no. 2 total and scoring offense. Arkansas has scored at least 40 points in all four home games and was slowed by only the best in the league. The Razorbacks defense is the SECs worst statistically, but go through their conference schedule and youll see they have faced the leagues top-tier offenses in Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss. Quarterback Ryan Mallett guides the SECs top passing attack with nearly 270 passing ypg, over 9.0 ypp attempt and 18/3 TD-INT ratio. South Carolina has the fewest INTs in the SEC and has allowed the most sacks. Arkansas should go hog wild on the ground and through the air in a game they need to have a shot at a bowl berth.
Tom Freese
Utah St. at Hawaii
Play: Utah St.
Utah St runs the ball for 4.7 yards a carry while Hawaii allows 5.0 yards a carry. Utah St is 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 November games and they are 9-1-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 yards in their last game. The Aggies are 10-2-1 ATS their last 13 games overall. Hawaii is 3-7 ATS vs. losing teams and they are 1-5 ATS off a straight up loss. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their last game and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 Conference games. PLAY ON UTAH ST -
Dave Price
1 Unit on Missouri Tigers -14
Mizzou got back on track last week with a big win over Colorado while Baylor fell by double digits for a 4th straight game. Mizzou is on a 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS against run versus Baylor, including a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS run at home. Baylor gave the Tigers a scare last season at home but I can't see it happening in Columbia this season without Robert Griffin in the lineup to make plays. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect Baylor to fall to 0-5 in Big 12 play with a lopsided defeat.
Tony Mathews
Kent State vs. Akron
Play: Kent State -3.5
Over the last month the Zips’ offense has been totally spent after a harsh string of injuries to key players. In fact, with the loss of high scoring players, Akron will not be able to make a comeback this season. The hapless offense has averaged only 213 yards total and a poor 12 points per game over the last two weeks. Akron’s 3rd down conversion rate is only 4.8% and QB Patrick Nicely hasn’t a single offensive weapon at his disposal. This spells trouble for Akron this week as they face off against Kent State, a team that boasts a highly efficient defense that in their last 3 games, has allowed only 31 points.
Defensively, the Zips are also exhausted. The Zips will be caught in the headlights trying to deal with Kent State QB Spencer Keith. Over the last two weeks Ohio and Western Michigan, difficult MAC opponents, both broke down under Keith who completed 65.3% of passes for 646 yards. Over the last two games, the Zips have allowed 509 yards rushing and will fall under Kent State’s abruptly new diverse attack.
All the signs point to a Kent State victory!
Take Kent State -3.5
Triple Threat Sports
Alabama vs LSU
Play Under
This was close to being a star rated Direct Service Play, but the recent history of Overs in the series kept it from getting that star rating. Still, cannot ignore stats showing Bama has allowed 14 or less in six of its last seven games while scoring just 18ppg in their last three contest, and LSU allowing 13 or less in six of its last seven games. The UNDER is the way to go here.
JR TIPS
SOUTHERN CAL vs. ARIZONA STATE
USC is out of the national championship picture but beating Arizona State has been a sure thing for the Trojans under Pete Carroll. The 12th-ranked Trojans look to bounce back from their most lopsided loss in 12 years and extend their winning streak over the Sun Devils to 10 wins in a row in Tempe tonight. USC has two losses this season to Washington and last weeks pounding from Oregon 47-20. The Ducks rolled up 391 yards on the ground and dealt the Trojans their worst loss since 1997 and Oregon's 613 total yards were the second most allowed by USC in school history. The Trojans should be able to get back on track as they have won eight straight games over Arizona State under Pete Carroll by an average of 22.0 points a game. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley didn't play bad going 21 of 38 for 187 yards and two touchdowns, but threw an interception for the fourth straight game in a row although his 246.7 passing yards per game rank second in the Pac-10. Arizona State's run defense has been excellent this season but their pass defense is awful as they allowed Cals quarterback Kevin Riley to throw for 351 yards in a 23-21 win. Barkley and USC leading receiver Damian Williams should have their way with this pass defense. The problem was USC's defense last week and the Oregon Ducks. An angry and embarrassed USC defense will play much better and well enough to keep their offense on the field who will put up big number against the Devils. If USC didn't get blown out last week, they would be favorite by 21 points in this game due to the fact they have beaten the Devils by an average of 22 pints a game. This line is way to low..
TAKE USC-10
BIG AL
Navy at Notre Dame
The Midshipmen are the country's best road team, having covered about 69% of their games over the past 20 years (80-36 ATS). That's rather impressive. Also, Notre Dame is a poor 1-15 ATS its last 16 at home vs. a foe off an upset loss. More often than not, those upset victims may have been looking ahead to their date with Notre Dame, so it's not surprising that virtually all of them rebound off upset losses to cover the spread in South Bend (this happened earlier this year when Michigan State lost to Central Michigan, then covered as a 10-point dog vs. the Irish). With Navy indeed off an upset at home to Temple last week, we'll grab the points with the Midshipmen.
PLAY NAVY
SPORTS WAGERS
Illinois +7 over MINNESOTA PINNACLE
Let’s see, a 5-4 Minnesota team at home laying only a touchdown to a 2-6 Illinois team – that must be a mistake?! For the square that doesn’t pay attention to strength of schedule, injuries and motivation, this game seems like a “lock.” Take a closer look, however, to the current state of the Minnesota program and it’s a shock they’re being trusted to lay a touchdown to a team with better talent. Yes, Minnesota has the better record and team statistics but they lost their only offensive playmaker in WR Erick Decker. Without Decker, who had 50 catches for 758 yards in 8 games, Minnesota can’t count on any playmaker to make plays and in any BCS conference that’s a major problem. Ask Oklahoma State what losing a Dez Bryant does to your team’s offense and morale. It’s a huge loss that was masked by Minnesota thrashing Michigan State last week. That game was the first in which Minnesota scored more than three offensive touchdowns this season and you can safely infer that won’t happen again. Illinois finally got their first Big Ten win last week against Michigan, beating them 38-13 as a sizeable underdog. Much maligned quarterback Juice Williams was reinstated as the starter and finished the game without a turnover. Williams can kill your chances against elite teams, but facing a mediocre Minnesota team is exactly the type of opponent Williams’ thrives on. The money-line for this game currently sits at +2.40 and I would definitely recommend playing that number if you feel like gambling a little. I’ll stick to taking the points on one of the biggest overlays of the year. The injuries suffered by Minnesota are serious enough that they must be considered a completely different team; to our fortune the lines-makers have yet to adjust. Play: #319 Illinois +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Colorado St. +1 over UNLV
Good thing this game isn’t going to be televised because this is likely going to be the ugliest game played this week. Combined, these schools have a 1-9 conference record and identical 3-6 marks. As usual, the major undoing for both these schools is the atrocious defenses. Both teams give up more than 30 points a game and 400 yards a game, and UNLV is dead last in the entire FBS with only two interceptions this season. Add the fact that the Mountain West is in the midst of sending a team to a BCS bowl game and it’s not surprise their conference records are that bad. Saturday’s tilt will feature teams whose weaknesses on the defensive side of the ball are almost exactly the same. In that case, the rule of thumb is usually to back the home team but this particular game is an exception to the rule. Colorado State is expecting to have leading rusher Leonard Mason return for this game after cracking his ribs, and his addition is huge. Mason has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and with his replacement John Mosure still in the mix averaging 4.6 yards per carry it gives Colorado State a decided advantage in the running game. With UNLV allowing an eye-popping 212 yards per game on the ground you can guarantee Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild will commit to running the ball. For a team to be unable to stop the run it needs to score early and often and while UNLV can certainly score, it’s pass first offense won’t be able to keep their defense off the field for an extended period of time. I’ll take the team with the edge in the running game over a team that needs to score points every drive. Play: #389 Colorado State +1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
JIM FEIST
ILLINOIS / MINNESOTA
TAKE: MINNESOTA
You never know which Illinois (2-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) team is going to show up. They.5?ve been underachievers all season, rotating 2 QBs. QB Juice Williams (2 TDs, 5 picks) led the team to a big upset the last game, a stunning 38-13 win over the Michigan Wolverines, but that was at home. This offense has been anemic and sloppy all season. Don.5?t forget that ended a 5-game skid where all the losses were by double digits. Minnesota (5-4 SU/ATS) runs a spread attack with junior QB Adam Weber, a team fighting for a winning record and a bowl berth. The Gophers are 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings, including a 27-20 win a year ago as a +12 dog. Home field and motivation carry the home team to a big win over the underachieving visitors. Play Minnesota!
DAVE COKIN
OKLAHOMA STATE / IOWA STATE
TAKE: IOWA STATE
Oklahoma State is clearly a more talented entry than Iowa State. But the better team doesn't always get the money, and I see the Cowboys as being ripe for an upset this week. Last Saturday's game vs. Texas was absolutely huge for Oklahoma State, and to say they laid an egg before the Stillwater faithful would be a considerable understatement. Going on the road to face a less than sensational opponent may not be easy for the Cowboys, and it's also a sandwich game as they have a big revenge duel with Texas Tech on deck.
Iowa State is a very pleasant surprise this year. Not much was expected from the Cyclones, but they've gotten a little lucky on a couple of occasions and suddenly find themselves at 5-4 with a chance to cinch a bowl bid if they can win this game. Iowa State is healthier for this contest than they've been the last couple of weeks. This is not an especially talented team, but they're playing extremely hard on every play and overachieving in the process.
If the right Oklahoma State team shows up for this game, there may not be a whole lot Iowa State can do to hang in. But the scheduling dynamics for the Cowboys are not favorable and I'm just not sure they're the most mentally tough team around. I'll take a chance on the revved up home dog and will grab the points with Iowa State.
Karl Garrett
Connecticut at CINCINNATI -17
G-Man says lay it this Saturday night with the undefeated Bearcats!
This Cincy team is for real, and it will only be a matter of time before they distance themselves from Connecticut in this time change, revenge contest.
Last year the Huskies stuck it to the Bearcats, 40-16 in Storrs, as the home team moved to 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 series meetings.
Cincinnati is an eye-popping 13-5 their last 18 lined home games, and are also 8-4 their last 12 homes games as a favorite.
Zach Collaros has not missed a beat filling in for Tony Pike at QB for Coach Kelly's team, while the Huskies QB situation is still shaky at best. Cincy's defense leads the land in tackles for a loss, and they are # 3 in turnover margin. That will spell doom for the Huskies tonight.
After back-to-back 24-28 losses to West Virginia, and Rutgers, expect the dam to break open for UConn in this spot, as they get run over by the Cincinnati juggernaut.
Lay it!
4♦ CINCINNATI