Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 8

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Golden State at Houston
The Warriors head to Houston tonight to face a Rockets team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games. Golden State is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2)

Game 701-702: Portland at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 120.064; LA Clippers 127.331
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-4); Over

Game 703-704: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 121.300; Indiana 115.342
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 6; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: New York at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.183; Atlanta 122.645
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Minnesota at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.513; Miami 122.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Boston at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.724; Chicago 127.287
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 711-712: Golden State at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 130.996; Houston 128.549
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 2 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 1 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Memphis at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.315; Milwaukee 116.217
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6); Over

Game 715-716: New Orleans at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.511; San Antonio 130.229
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 12 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 195
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Under

NHL

NY Rangers at Toronto
The Rangers head to Toronto tonight where they are 5-1 in their last 6 games versus the Maple Leafs. New York is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110)

Game 51-52: Calgary at Florida (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.341; Florida 10.606
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-115); Under

Game 53-54: Pittsburgh at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.853; Buffalo 11.941
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-340); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+270); Over

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.325; Toronto 10.809
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+110); Over

Game 57-58: Minnesota at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.993; Montreal 10.410
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under

Game 59-60: Winnipeg at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.105; Ottawa 12.776
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-140); Under

Game 61-62: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 9.810; Philadelphia 12.431
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Over

Game 63-64: Tampa Bay at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.326; Columbus 11.221
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+140); Under

Game 65-66: Carolina at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.665; Washington 13.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Over

Game 67-68: Nashville at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.601; St. Louis 13.159
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 69-70: San Jose at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.982; Dallas 10.447
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-110); Over

Game 71-72: NY Islanders at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.218; Arizona 10.781
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-125); Under

Game 73-74: Vancouver at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.034; Los Angeles 10.863
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+120); Over

CFL

Montreal at Hamilton
The Tiger-Cats host a Montreal team that is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. Hamilton is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3)

Game 295-296: Montreal at Hamilton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 113.465; Hamilton 118.586
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3); Under

Game 297-298: Edmonton at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 114.282; Saskatchewan 110.155
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 4; 55
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Brad Diamond

Wisconsin vs. Purdue
Play: Wisconsin -17

The Badgers (6-2) go on the road Saturday in the second of BB road games vs. Purdue (3-6). In the series, Wisconsin has won 8 straight, the last five by a combined score of 212/54, an average of 31.6 points per outing. The Badgers have covered 8 straight in the series, 5 in a row at West Lafayette. Also, after being defeated last week by #17 Nebraska 35-14, the Purdue losing streak vs. ranked opponents is 2-31 SU. Nebraska started their offense on the Purdue side of the field 6 times, 3 went for touchdowns. Part of the ‘Due deficit was accrued via two blocked punts. On the other hand, Wisconsin smashed Rutgers 37-0 for their seventh regular season shutout in 9 years. Wisky is 4-1 ATS after a shutout. By the way, QB Nova of the Scarlet Knights did start, 5/15 with 40+ yards passing was all he could offer to the homecoming crowd. Interesting, the Badgers play Nebraska after Purdue, who they crushed 70-31 in the 2012 playoffs. Going back to Saturday, we note AA RB Gordon of Wisconsin is banged up, but not to worry as RB Clement averaged 9.4 yards per carry against Rutgers as the second running back. With the favorite 7-0 ATS in the series and Wisconsin 4-0 ATS vs. a losing team look for the BADGERS to roll again!

Tony George

Kansas St. +6

Wow, this could very well be for the Big 12 Title gents, or at least a big piece of the puzzle gets answered on Saturday in Fort Worth Texas. TCU off a thriller in Morgantown barely escaping West Virginia with a 1 point win in a cold and rainy setting with College Gameday from ESPN on campus, and a lot of national media hype and exposure. It gets no easier for TCU this weekend as the red hot Wildcats who have 1 loss to mighty SEC foe Auburn, in a game they should have won, comes calling.

There is a 3 way race for the Big 12, Baylor who beat TCU, TCU themselves and Kansas State. Any and all are deserving of the title so this is a MONSTER game this weekend. K State is off back to back impressive wins and to note, they shut out Texas who had not been shut out since 1995 in any game, they lost a game to Auburn on a Thursday Night missing 3 FG’s and getting a pass intercepted in the end zone and losing by 6, and they just destroyed Okie State as a 13 point favorite. TCU has struggled in big games all season, losing to Baylor, needing a miracle finish to win last week, struggling to a win at home against Oklahoma, and TCU gives up big plays on defense which bit them hard in that Baylor game.

Two good coaches here, but if you want to fade Bill Snyder as a road dog, think again. In his last 14 road games as an underdog he has coached, he has covered 13 of them and won 7 of them outright, including a 6 point pup at Oklahoma this year. Jake Waters is a veteran QB with mad skills and is a big time gamer who is a leader, and he rarely makes mistakes, and the shutdown run defense of K State is ranked #9 nationally, while the point production from the offense is ranked #16 nationally. TCU is no slouch folks, their offense is #2 in points scored per game and scoring 82 against Texas Tech helped that average, along with the 6th ranked pass offense in the NCAA. This is a huge game with possible final 4 implications down the road, and we are catching TCU off a brutal road trip and last second win, tough spot for them to travel back and match the intensity that K State will bring to this.

One thing is for sure, Bill Snyder is a magician at beating teams he is not supposed to beat, he has done it his entire career and is one of the best (and oldest) coaches in college football. He has made a career out of making me look like an idiot when I have went against him in big games, and this very well may be for a Big 12 championship and with a 13-1 ATS road dog record, and a 6-2 ATS record overall this year, I will take the points in what should be a thrilling football game and a 3 point win by either side one way or the other.

Take the points and Kansas State – earlier the better, this line will drop

Sleepyj

Arizona St. -2.5

Arizona State is on this dream season so to speak. They have been lucky to have only dropped 1 game. The Sun Devils are still in the overall conversation and they should be..They will need to win out and i give them a slight chance. This is now the biggest game of the year and they can win this one i believe.....Take note this game was moved to 3:30 est...Thats not going to help the Irish...Why?....well the forecast is going to be 88 degrees...The Notre Dame defense will be gassed late and they wont adjust to this type of heat. they havent played in heat like this all year...This will hurt them for sure..They also moved the game earlier and the Irish will also lose a few hrs of rest as well.,..I wonder what other tricks the Sun Devils have in store for the Irish...QB Taylor Kelly is back and the Arizona St team has really come together as a unit...Az St...has won 4 in a row and beaten the better teams in the Pac...USC, Wash, Stanford, and Utah just last week...Now they get the Irish at home and they can run the table...They do have two more tough tests but if the Sun Devils get this offense rolling it can be trouble for all the teams they face. I think that starts here..Now with two weeks under the belt and facing a tough Utah defense they will get a regression in that dept..This is not a easy place to play and i wonder about the mental stability here for the Irish overall...ND still has to play Louisville and go to USC..This is the Irish 3rd road game in a row..this will not help this Irish team..They looked lost last week in a big comeback win...The loss to FSU is still lingering with this team and it showed last week...The Irish have a slim chance to win out and i think they know that..This team is over rated and i don't believe they are a top 10 team..This heat will beat the crap out of this Notre Dame defense and offense..the early start time will hurt them..Arizona State is drooling at these guys...The public will be all over ND....stay away from the chatter....i think Arizona St wins this one 34-27.

Marco D'Angelo

Duke vs. Syracuse
Play:Syracuse +3.5

The Blue Devils moved to 7-1 last week in yet another nail-biter defeating Pittsburgh by a 51-48 final making the victory the third straight ACC win by 7 points or less. Tony Finn writes the forward for Marco D'Angelo's Free College Football Pick video. Marco discusses his Week 11 College Football pick between the Duke Blue Devils and Syracuse Orangemen.

Have the Blue Devils run out of ATS fortune as they head into the final four games of their ACC schedule before going bowling? Duke is 6-2 against the spread this season and will be favorites in their final four contests. After this Saturday's contest at the Carrier Dome the Devils play their final three regularly scheduled contests at home versus Virginia Tech, UNC and Wake Forest.

The football gods have been good to Duke as the squad continues to squeak through an ACC schedule that didn't include Florida State, Clemson or Louisville. Syracuse has played all three of the aforementioned, and lost three. While senior day in college football isn't quite the event that it is for the hoopsters, final home games for graduating players means something. Duke is the only 1-loss team in the ACC Coastal Division but buyer beware as they haven't played the quality schedule that Syracuse has.

In each of their last four games, Duke has fallen short statistically. The Devils have been out-yard-aged by Miami (their only loss of the season), Georgia Tech, Virginia and last week Pittsburgh and the difference is substantial with a 1901 yards against-to-1407 yards for ratio. This Saturday's game at Syracuse would rate as a "hit the Cuse as hard as you can type of game" if it were not for the injuries Syracuse is suffering through. But all indicators suggest that even an injury-plagued Orange are still a value play getting points in the Dome.

Duke has -- for the most part -- been a smoke and mirrors offense this season. The same can be said for their defense. The 3-6 Orange face a do-or-die date with the Bowl masters on Saturday. This is a home contest they must win if they are to string together enough "W's" to qualify for postseason play. In truth Syracuse is unlikely to receive an invitation for a third straight bowl game but expect the Syracuse players to be motivated for a contest against a ranked Blue Devils squad.

Syracuse has been in tough at home against quality opponents, going 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in the Carrier Dome since winning (but not covering) against Villanova. They held N.C. State to 307 yards last week, but lost 24-17 due largely to losing the turnover battle 3-0. Duke comes in after winning a shootout at Pitt, 51-48 in overtime,

The Blue Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games coming off a contest where they allowed 40 points or more.
Syracuse is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 coming off a game where they passed for 280 yards or more.

So how does a team go 6-1 straight up and against the spread in conference road games when they have been statistically massacred? Duke has been outgained by an average of 492.0 to 352.3 against ACC teams this year. Duke simply can't be trusted in the favorite role, especially on the road in a venue that has been a traditionally tough place to win.

DAVE COKIN

PENN STATE AT INDIANA
PLAY: PENN STATE -7

These aren’t the best of times for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are mired in a four-game losing streak as they journey to Bloomington for this Saturday’s duel with Indiana. The Hoosiers are also scuffling as they’re now 3-5. It’s actually a very big game for each team in terms of keeping bowl hopes alive.

At first glance, it seems really difficult to even consider laying any significant points with Penn State. The Lions are having problems moving the football thanks to what has been an invisible running game. Fortunately, the Penn State defense has been tough, and that’s how the team has stayed in games. But this could be the spot where the Nittany Lions finally bust out a little bit and find the end zone with some regularity.

Indiana has big issues right now. Since losing their first-string QB, the Hoosiers have become the ultimate one-dimensional offense. The good news is that one dimension happens to be a great running back, as Tevin Coleman continues to register some spectacular numbers. But the QB situation is a complete mess and try as he might, Coleman can’t do it all by himself.

It will be interesting to see what Coleman can do on this Saturday. Penn State’s strength is stuffing the run. This is clearly not a powerful Nittany Lions entry, but that’s the one area where they really excel. If Penn State is able to at least contain Coleman to some extent, I don’t know where Indiana’s points will come from.

The flip side is that this could be the game where the Lions dormant running game finally gets at least a little cranked up. Indiana has a soft interior that can be exploited. That might allow Chris Hackenburg to put something together. He’s got the tools to be a good college QB, but Hackenburg has put together very pedestrian stats to date and he’s had some interception issues as well. If there’s a potential breakout game for Hackenburg, this would appear to be it.

Penn State hasn’t won in several weeks now, but they’ve also had a couple of decent games that just didn’t go their way. The same cannot be said for Indiana, as the Hoosiers are getting crushed. Indiana has been outgunned by a whopping 651 combined yards the last two weeks and they were pretty awful last week against a Michigan team that had been doing almost nothing on offense previously.

The number here is about where it’s supposed to be on the math. But I think this could be an ideal matchup for the visitors. If they’re able to generate some legit offense here, as I believe they will, I’m not sure how Indiana keeps pace unless Coleman goes wild. That’s not impossible by any means, as he’ll be the best player on the field. But I see the duel in the trenches going Penn State’s way, and that has me looking to lay the points with the Nittany Lions this time.

Marc Lawrence

Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan -1

Edges - Wolverines: 20-4 SU in games with a .500 even record since 1982; and 30-4 SU in this series since 1966. Wildcats: 2-10 SU from Game Six out the past two seasons. With the Wolves having held seven of their nine opponents to season low - or 2nd low - yards this season, and Northwestern having been out gained in six of their eight games this campaign, we recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan.

EZWINNERS

Teaser Alabama -½ & Oregon -2

In this teaser I'm basically asking for Alabama and Oregon to just win their road games this week. I normally love playing LSU as a home underdog at night, but I think Alabama wins this game straight up. They may or may not cover but I'm just looking for the win. The Alabama defense should be able to stop the LSU run game which Ole Miss could not when they lost as a road favorite two weeks ago. In the other game I believe the Ducks are starting to roll. Utah is a tough opponent, but they have also been a very lucky team this season. Just look at their win over USC. Oregon disposed of Stanford last week and the Utes play a similar physical style of as the Cardinals. Utah just doesn't have the playmakers to pull of the upset here in my opinion.

Michigan -1

Michigan head coach Brady Hoke's job is on life support and this week's opponent should allow Hoke to hand on to his job for at least one more week. This game is critical as Michigan must win two out of their last three games to become bowl eligable and their last game of the season is at Ohio State. The Wolverines should also have some confidence coming into this game after last week's 34-10 win against Indiana. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner threw for two touchdowns and he got help from running back Drake Johnson who rushed for 108 yards and two touchdowns himself as the Wolverine defeated the Hoosiers for the 19th straight time. Michigan has also dominated this Northwestern team winning thirty out of the last thirty four meetings. Michigan has a top ten defense and they should feast on the struggling Wildcat offense that is 90th in the nation in passing yards, 107th in rushing yards and just 116th in points scored. Lay this short number with the Wolverines.

Kansas State +7

Just like Ole Miss and Auburn last week, this matchup is most likely an elimation game for the national championship. TCU is the team in the Big XII that is getting all of the attention, while Kansas State has been flying under the radar. The Wildcats only loss came against Auburn in a game that K-State could have easily won. The Wildcats were not out classed by Auburn in any way and I think they match up well with TCU. Last week was the first time this season that the Frogs did not cover the Vegas spread. TCU is coming off of an emotional win as they needed five West Virginia turnovers to escape Morgantown last week with a one point win in a game that they trailed all the way. The Frogs could have a hard time starting this game with the same intensity after that big win and they are laying signigicant points against a very good team. Kansas State knows how to play on the road. The Wildcats have already beat Oklahoma in Norman this season and since 2010 head coach Bill Snyder's K-State team is 11-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Take the points.

Joe Gavazzi

Baylor -6

Sooners have had this one circled, following their 41-12 trashing in Waco last season. At one point, Oklahoma HC Stoops was known as a big-time avenger. Recently, Stoops is just 2-3 ATS in that role. Last week, Oklahoma warmed up for this revenger with a 59-14 thrashing of defenseless Iowa St. in which they outrushed the Cyclones, 510-87 en route to running 103 plays for 751 yards. In a similar warmup, Baylor ran and passed for 326 or more yards in a 60-14 thrashing of Kansas. Baylor now has the No. 1 offense in the land at 590 YPG, good for 6.7 YP play. Big difference in this game, however, is a Baylor defense that has ascended to DANDY status, allowing just 21+ PPG, 100/2.7 overland, and only 4.5 YP play.

West Virginia -3

These teams look little like the entities who faced off in Morgantown last year, when good-hit no field Texas emerged with a 47-40 victory against a Mountaineer team who was doing little right as they reached the nadir of their discontent under 4th year HC Holgorsen with a 4-8 SU, 3-8 ATS mark. This year, under 1st year HC Strong, a Texas team with an improved defense plays this game following a 34-13 victory at bottom of the barrel, TTRR, to boost themselves to Super Surger status at 4-5 SU. Mounties are vastly improved across the board. The 3-3-5 defense is a notch above last season, while behind QB Trickett, the Mounties are averaging 36 PPG on over 500 YPG. There is even balance, at 182/4.0 overland, to their spread attack. Big question is whether they can rebound on the road following a 31-30 home loss to TCU in which they led by 9, but fell by a FG at the gun.

Kansas St +6

Last week, I made an embarrassing selection on the UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK. I took an inflated 17 points with a N. Carolina team, who had a phenomenal offense and was on a major late season role. It backfired on me, when Miami controlled the line of scrimmage 295-6 in a STEAMROLLING 47-20 victory. The UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK now stands 8-2 ATS. Reviewing the parameters that have been common in each of those wins; we find that we have used a quality team with a great defense in a preferred UNDERDOG role who is capable of winning the game outright. Such is clearly the case with today's selection.

There is clearly little to complain about this year's edition of TCU. They are 7-1 SU ATS, having covered the number by 114 points. Their offense is averaging 48 PPG on 550 YPG at 6.7 YP play behind emerging QB Boykin. With success, however, comes inflation. And, despite Kansas St. being a likewise 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS and covering by 62 AFP, this line is at least a full TD from where it would have been opening week. As a result, this offers great value on Kansas St.

Furthering our play is the situational analysis. Last week, TCU won 31-30 at WVU. It was a gut-wrenching victory! The Frogs had to come back from a 9 point deficit in the 4th quarter to kick the winning field goal as time expired. Despite their gaudy numbers and lofty record, this has LETDOWN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT! As a result, we are eager to step in with DEFENSIVE DANDY Kansas St.

This edition of HC Snyder's Wildcats is allowing just 19 PPG, 101/3.1 overland, 321 YPG, and only 4.9 YP play. Last week, Kansas St. rolled to an easier than expected 48-14 victory vs. Oklahoma St., leaving plenty in the tank for this week's battle of 1 loss teams which will serve as a National Title elimination game. Along with that staunch defense, comes the trademark Snyder qualities of positive TO margin and outstanding special teams. As a result, Snyder is 23-9 ATS as underdog, including a perfect 11-0 ATS as road dog vs. ranked foes.

DAVE COKIN

AIR FORCE AT UNLV
PLAY: UNLV +5.5

This hasn’t been a banner season for UNLV football. The Rebels were hoping to build on the success of 2013 which ended with a January 1 bowl game. But a shaky start to the campaign, followed by a ridiculous run of injuries, has really hampered this team and they’re unfortunately still stuck on two wins.

I think there’s a decent chance UNLV could break through this weekend. Air Force will definitely have revenge on its mind, but it’s still not a great spot for the Falcons coming off the rivalry win against Army. That wrapped up the service competition for this season, and winning that trophy was a very big deal for Air Force.

As for UNLV, they probably should have won last week. Despite the slow start against New Mexico, the Rebels ended up taking control of the game and I think I was a little fortunate to cash a winning ticket with the Lobos.

Air Force runs a different option than New Mexico, but the basic elements are the same, so the familiarity factor should benefit the Rebels on Saturday. UNLV will have to guard against the pass more than they did last week, but there should nevertheless be solid recognition to the Air Force scheme.

In each of the last two meetings between these teams, size has definitely mattered. The Rebels are substantially bigger than the Falcons and they’ve clobbered them in the trenches. That’s going to be a big part of Saturday’s game plan. The idea is to stay with Air Force early and wear them down later.

There’s no way to call this an easy decision with the losses piling up. But the mental attitude of the Revels remains positive and this is an opponent they’re going to have legit confidence against based on the two most recent hookups. I expect a close game that could be decided very late. If that’s the case, grabbing anything close to a TD is not a bad option. I’ll roll the dice with UNLV as the right side on Saturday.

Freddy Wills

Baylor vs. Oklahoma
Play: Baylor +6

The running game is big keys for both of these teams and I think this match up is pretty even across the board. Baylor is 0-12 at Oklahoma, but it's time to change that. This defense held Oklahoma to 237 yards last year and Oklahoma has struggled to beat teams who rank in the top 40 in yards/play on offense and defense. Both TCU & Kansas State fall into that category at 8/38 and 32/29 as truly balanced teams and Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas State. Baylor is ranked 23rd in offense and 11th on defense in yards/play. Just too much balance for Oklahoma to win this game by a TD. I am 6-0 on Teasers of the week's this year which you can find tracking for on monitorsportspicks. The value is there for this Baylor team at over a TD + FG at +11.. I'm going to tease it with Notre Dame +8.5 which will be a 4.4* play! Notre Dame and Arizona State face off in another big match up on Saturday. Both teams will face top tier QB's with next level talent. Both defenses have already faced the top 2 QB's in the nation. Arizona State got blown off the field by UCLA at home and Brett Hundley who had 355 yards 4 TD 0 INT"s and rushed for 72 yards on 8 carries, as they lost 27-62. Notre Dame meanwhile kept Jameis Winston in check 23/31, 273 yards 2 TD and 1 INT. Notre Dame can do the same with Taylor Kelly who is playing just his second game off his injury. Everett Golson is every bit as dangerous as Brett Hundley and I think he's got better players around him. Notre Dame is balanced ranking 30th in yards per play offense and 44th on defense. Arizona State's 50th ranked defense will have issues containing Golson and this Notre Dame offense especially coming off a win vs. Utah in OT. I'm probably going to parlay these two on the ML as I can see both road teams in position for a win.

Freddy Wills's Featured Package

Nick Parsons

Oregon vs. Utah
Play: Over 60

I see the Oregon and Utah being a high scoring fast paced back and forth type of game that whoever has the ball last will have a chance to win it.

Oregon exercised one demon last week when they beat Stanford 45 to16. They have another challenge this week against 20th ranked Utah.

Oregon is 5-1 in the Pac 12 and 8-1 overall. They are ranked fourth for the College Football Playoff. The Utes are 6-2 overall this season‚ but they are 3-2 in conference after losing 19-16 in overtime to Arizona State. If they have any hope of playing for the {ac-12 title the realistically cannot lose another game.

Oregon has won five of the last six meetings‚ including a 44-21 rout last season. The Ducks lead the all-time series‚ 19-8.

When you talk about offense you start with Oregon. The lead the Pac-12 with 533.8 yards a game in total offense. If this continues it will be the fifth season in a row they have accomplished this feat.

Oregon’s Marcus Mariota had another sensational day against Stanford, He threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. He also rushed for 85 yards and two scores. For the year he has passed for 2‚541 yards and 26 touchdowns‚ with only 2 interceptions. He has also 410 yards on the ground and seven scores.

Mariota isn’t their only weapon Utah will have to worry about. Royce Freeman has 846 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. He had a streak of three 100 yards rushing snapped against Stanford when he could only manage 98. Byron Marshall leads the team in receptions with 40 and receiving yards with 539‚ he also has 307 yards rushing and five total touchdowns. They have six receivers with 250 yards.

The Ducks one Achilles heel is their defense. The Ducks are next-to-last in the Pac-12 in yards allowed ar 458 a game. One bright spot is that they are sixth in points allowed averaging a modest 24.8.

Ii Utah is going to exploit this weakness they will have to get their offense turned around. They have gained less than 400 yards in the last six games.

The passing game and the offense were hampered, when leading receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season with a knee injury. Against Arizona State without Anderson they managed only 57 passing yards.

Running back Devontae Booker will have to take on an even bigger role for the Utes. He rushed 146 yards on 37 carries against Arizona State‚ and now has a total of 990 yards and eight touchdowns on 183 attempts this season.

Utah's defense is the strength of this team. They rank third in total defense at 385 yards a game and leads the nations in sacks with 39, they will need the pressure in hopes of slowing Mariota down.

Oregon is going to get their points no matter what- That’s a given. How many will be up to the Utes defense and I don’t see them containing Mariota and Freeman for long periods of time. Utah should have their chances to score points themselves against the Oregon defense. Even if Oregon gets up they will still want to impress the playoff committee so I don’t see them calling off the dogs.

Matt Fargo

Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +14½

Florida has been horrible all season long and the Gators play one good game, very good game actually, and they are now being asked to lay an enormous number on the road. Coming off a big upset over a rival with another rival on deck puts Florida into a very tough spot to be focused this week and as good as they looked last week, they can easily come crashing back down. Vanderbilt is having a tough season at 3-6 but it has definitely been playing better that what public perception is portraying. The Commodores have won two of their last three games which came sandwiched around a respectable 10-point loss at Missouri. The public perception plays into the Vanderbilt lines and the fact it is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run against FBS teams proves that is has been better than most think. The Commodores are 3-1 over their last four home games. Give credit to Florida head coach Will Muschamp for making a change at quarterback as he inserted freshman Treon Harris into the lineup last week and while the Gators won, Harris did little as he threw only six passes the entire game. We will see what he can do if he needs to do something himself as he has yet to prove anything. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

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Bill Biles

Louisiana Tech -4

La-Tech is looking to remain unbeaten in conference play as they face off against UAB. LA Tech is on a 4 game winning streak and they are playing good football. Look for La tech to get another win in this one.