Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tulsa -12.5 over SMU: A 1-7 team laying double digits? Yes and it is warranted as they is a historically bad SMU squad. The Mustangs are 0-7 on the year, have the worst offense and defense in the nation, have been outscored by 41 pg on the year and have been outgained by 251 ypg in conference play. Tulsa is 1-7 but have been a far more competitive team than the Mustangs have, especially in conference play, where they have outgained their foes by 20 ypg. Let's also note that SMU lost to Memphis by 38 points and was outgained by 331 yards, while Tulsa did lose by 20 to Memphis, but was outgained by just 15 yards in the game. This is a very bad SMU squad that will just not put up nearly enough points to keep this one close vs a Tulsa squad that is not as bad as their record would indicate.
Georgia Tech/ NC State Over 61: I see this game as a shootout, much like the last two years that saw 80 and 73 points being scored. The Wolfpack have had some issues on offense of late, but earlier in the year they did have a stretch of 4 games in a row where they put up at least 40 points, which included scoring 41 on Florida State. They should get back to scoring in this one vs a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed 464 ypg and 30.3 ppg on the road, which includes allowed 509 ypg and 33.3 ppg in their last 3 away from home. On offense this team has no such issues, averaging 36.9 ppg overall, including 41 ppg on the road. They should clearly be able to score in this one vs a NC State defense that has allowed 28.6 ppg and 427 ypg at home this year. The Over is 7-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 8 road games, while the Over is 14-5 in the Wolfpack’s last 19 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Punters can take the day off in this one.
Louisiana Tech -4 over UAB: The Blazers are an improved team, but they are going up against a very hot Bulldog squad that is just clicking on all cylinders right now. The Bulldogs have won 4 in a row, including a 52 point win over UTEP and last week's 49 point destruction over Western Kentucky. The Bulldogs also have 21+ points road wins over North Texas and UL Lafayette on their resume as well. This team has 3 losses on the year, but one was vs Oklahoma and the other was vs Auburn. The Bulldogs did cover both games though. UAB is home off a three game road trip and may have tired at the end of it, as they blew a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter vs FAU last week, before winning by 3. The Blazers are not all that strong after a win, going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 in that spot, while the Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. The Bulldogs should win this one by over a TD.
Ohio State/ Michigan State Under 56: A night game with cold, rainy nasty conditions should not lead to allot of scoring in this one. I can't see this game as an aerial show with those conditions. Last year the teams put up 58 points, but in the previous 5 games there had been no more than 55 points scored in a game. Both offenses that may play a bit more conservative in this one will go up against two superb defenses. The Spartans come in having allowed just 279.4 ypg and 20.3 ppg overall, while at home they have been even stingier, allowing just 236 ypg and 13.6 ppg. The Buckeyes come in having allowed just 299.5 ypg and 19.9 ppg overall this year, while on the road they have allowed just 21.7 ppg. The Buckeye offense has been solid, but JT Barrett has struggled in his two games vs good defenses (Va Tech & Penn State) and will struggle here as well. The Spartans have scored 47.2 ppg at home, but have yet to face a defense as tough as the Buckeyes and have yet to play in conditions like there will be tonight. This one should be an old fashioned defensive battle. The kind I love.
BEST OF THE REST
Louisville -3 over BOSTON COLLEGE: I know the Cards come in off a tough loss vs Florida State and that might make this a bad spot for them, but they have had a little extra time to get ready for this game and that can only fuel them a bit more. Louisville has one of the best defenses in the nation and their offense is getting better each week. The Boston College Eagles have played better of late and did win on the road at Virginia Tech in their last game, but prior to that they struggled mightily with a bad Wake Forest team and they are just 1-3 at home vs FBS teams this year. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS off A SU loss and that trend should continue here. I say the Cards win this one by a TD or more mainly thanks to their defense, which has to be angry after last week’s rough showing vs the Noles.
Iowa PK over MINNESOTA: Iowa is a good road team and they have dominated this series of late. Iowa has a bit better defense and they are slightly better on offense as well. Minnesota barely beat Purdue and Northwestern at home, while Iowa Beat Purdue by 14 on the road and crushed Northwestern by 41 at home last week. Iowa is playing better right now and I look for them to win this one by at least a TD.
Alabama / LSU Under 46: Boy this is my type of game as I am expecting a low scoring game here. Last year these teams put up 55 points, but in the previous 6 meetings no more than 45 points have been scored in regulation, with those 6 games averaging just 33.5 ppg. That is the type of game I expect here. The LSU offense is not as explosive and really the only way for them to win this game is to shorten it with their strong ground attack and then rely on their very good defense to take care of the rest. For Alabama they have another stout defensive squad and will not give up a whole lot of points to a very suspect LSU offense. The Tide has allowed 14 ppg this year, while the Tigers have allowed just 15.9 ppg on the year, including just 10.7 ppg at home. This should be an old fashioned defensive battle, with the game being played in the 30s at most.
Oregon -8 over UTAH: I know that Utah is improved this year and that they do have an excellent defense, but still Stanford has one too and the Ducks put up 45 points on them. Oregon will get their points no matter who they are playing and that’s where the problem will come from the Utes, as they just don’t have the offense to keep up in this one. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games overall, while the Utes are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 20 points or less. Ducks will win this one rather easily.
Wunderdog
UTEP @ W. Kentucky
Pick: UTEP +8
Western Kentucky has some issues. Their last four games have not been pretty as they have managed just a single win vs. Old Dominion. Old Dominion has allowed 41 points or more in six straight games, and Western Kentucky needed most of the 66 points they scored in that one to get the win 66-51. This is a team that has given up 500 yards or more in each of their last four games, and have allowed just shy of 50 ppg. There comes a point in time when you have to stop someone but the Hilltoppers just haven't been able to do it. Last week their offense couldn't get it going and they went down 59-10. UTEP has made great strides and have won three straight games, and in the process they have out-scored their opponents 111-49. The take here is they obviously can score, and will score a lot against Western Kentucky, but they have also allowed just 16.3 ppg in their last three so they certainly have a shot at getting a few more stops here. The Hilltoppers are just 1-6 ATS after allowing 280 passing yards in their previous game, which has become the norm, allowing over an average of 350 yards per game in their last four. Play the points on UTEP.
LT Profits
Duke vs. Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse +3.5
The Duke Blue Devils are 7-1 while the Syracuse Orange are 3-6, but it must be said that the toughest game that Duke has had thus far was probably Miami, which was the game it lost, and that it has faced a weakest schedule among ACC teams according the Sagarin Ratings ranking 100th in SOS! Meanwhile, the Orange are ranked 24th in SOS losing to the likes of Florida State, Clemson and Notre Dame. Despite those schedules, Syracuse has hung in defensively ranking 38th in the country in total defense while Duke is just 81st in total defense including 107th in rushing defense, which is something a Syracuse team averaging 163.3 rushing yards on 4.5 YPC can exploit. For further inspiration, this is also Syracuse’s final home game of the season already, so it should give maximum effort. Syracuse is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.
Jeff Clement
Michigan vs. Northwestern
Play: Michigan -2
The Wolverines beat Indiana last week 34-10 behind Freshman tailback Drake Johnson's 122 yard performance with 2 TD's while Northwestern lost for the 4th in a row with a blowout 48-7 loss to Iowa. Michigan needs a win to get back to .500 so they can get Bowl eligible and save Brady Hoke's job. Northwestern is 1-10 ATS last 11 home games and 3-10 ATS last 13 conference games. Michigan is 7-2 ATS last 9 games against teams with losing records. I expect Michigan to run the ball effectively and as long as Devon Gardner can prevent turnovers they should win.
Tom Stryker
Iowa vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers enter Saturday’s home war against the Hawkeyes off a week of rest and a heart-breaking 28-24 road loss at Illinois. With a schedule that closes with a home date against Ohio State next week and road wars at Nebraska and Wisconsin, Minnesota had plenty of time to decide if it s going to rise up to the challenge of its tough season-ending schedule or fold late like it historically does. I believe head coach Jerry Kill’s men will come together and pull off this minor upset.
It certainly won’t take much for the Golden Gophers to get up for this contest. The Hawkeyes currently possess the Floyd of Rosedale trophy thanks to a pair of wins in the last two meetings in this series. Iowa slammed Minnesota 31-13 at home in 2012 and drilled the Gophers 23-7 last year in the Twin Cities. Sporting a 15-5 SU and 11-6 ATS record, Minny has played pretty well in its last 20 home games. Coach Kill’s kids improve to a decent 6-2 SU and ATS in this situation provided they are tackling an opponent that arrives off a straight up win.
Iowa sure did look impressive in its 48-7 home win against Northwestern last Saturday. Off that blowout victory, this trip to Minneapolis will be a much tougher one than the Hawkeyes probably expect. Since 1992, Big 10 road favorites are a weak 28-43-1 ATS provided they won by 28 points or more at home in their last game. Provided our “play against” guest is not facing an opponent that enters without momentum off two or more straight up losses, this conference angle dips down to a stiff 14-29-1 TS. That spells bad news for the Hawkeyes.
In order to win back that solid bronze pig, the Golden Gophers will successfully attack an Iowa stop unit that is ranked 18th in the FBS in scoring and total defense allowing an average of 20.0 points and 322.8 yards per game. Coach Kill's men will be in trouble next week but not here.
River City Sharps
Louisville -3
Being based in Louisville, KY, there is probably no team that we have a better pulse on than the Louisville Cardinals. There was plenty of disappointment last Thursday as the Cards effort came up short against Florida State. While they did lose the game, one real positive that came out of the game was their ability to move the ball and score against the Seminoles defense. While Louisville’s defense has been pretty solid all season, they didn’t quite hold up in the second half against the FSU onslaught. Now we find the Cards travelling to Boston for a matchup with the much improved Boston College Eagles. BC comes into this game on a high following their road victory at Virginia Tech, but we think this is a story of matchup problems for the Eagles. You see, the Eagles have virtually a non-existent passing game and count of QB Tyler Murphy to run out of several different looks. The problem is that even though Louisville will be missing Lorenzo Mauldin this week, the Cardinals have a really stout rushing defense and running against this team has been a losing proposition for most teams. We expect BC to struggle establishing their running game and the Louisville secondary has been really opportunistic this year. On offense, the Cards are not going to test the BC rush defense as much as trying to go over the top with the tight ends and Devontae Parker on the edge. As for the trends, consider that the Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and an amazing 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. We also like the extra couple of days Petrino gets to prepare for this game and believe you will see the Cardinals best road performance of the season. Cards hit the road and come away with their most convincing road effort of the season.
Nelly
Boston College + over Louisville
The Cardinals enter this game coming off last week's season-making opportunity against Florida State, a game the Cardinals led 21-0 at one point and re-took the lead in the fourth quarter, only to still lose. It could be a tough emotional spot for Boston College as well as the Eagles held on for a big win at Virginia Tech last week. Last week's win clinched a bowl spot for Boston College in a season where expectations were grounded. The Eagles are one of the best rushing teams in the nation posting 275 yards per game and with a knack for playing close games as three losses have come by a total of 16 points. Both teams have top 20 scoring defenses but the ground edge for Boston College could lead the way in a difficult spot for both teams. Boston College gains 5.5 yards per rush compared with Louisville posting only 3.7 yards per rush even with the return of Michael Dyer. Both teams have excellent run defenses but Boston College has far more potential on offense and the Eagles should be an underdog with a rushing edge at home. Boston College has out-rushed each of the last seven opponents, including good teams like USC, Colorado State, and Clemson. Last week's game meant the season for Louisville and while Boston College is also coming off a big win this is a confident team that will have a great home field edge in cool conditions.
Stephen Nover
Duke -3.5
Duke is 15-1 in its last 16 regular season games. The Blue Devils rank 13th in the nation in scoring defense giving up less than 20 a game.
The Blue Devils have a strong coaching and quarterback edge with Anthony Boone. Syracuse has multiple injuries, including at quarterback. The Orangemen rank 108th in points per game. They have been held under 20 points in six of their last seven games and are going with untested redshirt freshman Austin Wilson at quarterback while dialing back their playbook to make things more simple for him.
Making things even rougher for Wilson is the Orangemen are down two injured starting offensive linemen and their ground attack managed just 38 yards rushing on 37 carries last week versus North Carolina State while their offensive line allowed eight sacks.
Under David Cutcliffe, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country, the Blue Devils have gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games. Duke is the fresher team, too, having had two byes during the last five weeks. Syracuse, on the other hand, is playing for the ninth consecutive week.
Syracuse is going to need takeaways to have a chance. Duke, though, hasn't turned the ball over in its last 205 plays. The Blue Devils have lost the ball only five times all season.
Joe D'Amico
Tulane at Houston
Pick: Houston
Houston has won and covered the L10 in this series. The Cougars are riding a 3-game win and cover steak, allowing a mere 37 total points. They are on a 5-1 ATS run, chomping at the bit to get to a freshman-riddled Green Wave team. RS frosh QB, Tanner Lee will be on his heels all day long against the 5th ranked UH defense that grabs a ton of ton of INT's. Lee's backfield is banged-up badly which doesn't bode well for a Green Wave team that already averages a paltry 18.1 PPG. Cougars QB, Greg Ward jr. has tallied 545 YP in his three starts. The play-caller has a lot of weapons in his arsenal. Tulane can not stay score-for-score with the explosive Houston offense. The Green Wave is 0-5 ATS their L5 games played at the Cougars, 2-5 ATS their L7 vs. teams with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played on the road. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS their L5 Conference games, 20-7 ATS their L27 games vs. teams with a losing record, and 19-7 ATS their L26 games played following an ATS win.
Jim Feist
Wizards at Pacers
Pick: Over
These clubs just met on the 5th, an OT win by the Wizards in Washington, 96-94. The Wizards lost their opener of the season to Miami and have since won the next four straight. They are also 3-2 ATS, though they failed to cover as a 9 1/2 home point favorite over Indiana. Indiana opened with a win against Philly but has since lost its next four games and is 3-2 ATS this season. The Pacers total points have dropped dramatically as they have been under 90 points in two of the last four and just barely over 90 in the other two. It's not surprising, their offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) have dropped steadily to the low 90's while their defensive efficiency has been over 100 in three of their five games. The Wizards were a very efficient offensive team, posting 112, 110 and 111 offensive efficiency numbers in three of the last four games. The Wizards have also gone OVER in four of their five games, not scoring less than 95 points yet. The Pacers went over their first three games and four of five also thanks in part to a less than efficient defense. My numbers have this game making it into the 190's and with the total at 185 1/2, that's a pretty good cushion.
Jimmy Boyd
Notre Dame +2½
While both of these teams have played a relatively soft schedule to this point, I have been more impressed with Notre Dame. The only blemish on the schedule for the Fighting Irish is a 27-31 loss at Florida State, a game in which they had an outstanding shot at winning. Arizona State on the other hand was embarrassed in their lone defeat, losing 27-62 at home to what has turned out to be an overrated UCLA squad. The Sun Devils also got a gift win against UCS, beating the Trojans on a last second Hail Mary.
Offensively there’s not a lot that separates these two teams. Arizona State is 38th in scoring (34.4 ppg) and 21st in total offense (483.6 ypg), while Notre Dame is 30th in scoring (35.4 ppg) and 34th in total offense (458.3 ypg). Where I expect this game to be won is on the defensive side of the ball and I give the advantage to the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is 40th in total defense (359.2 ypg), while Arizona State is 58th (385.3 ypg).
The big key here is that the Sun Devils have faced a number of bad offenses. Their last 3 games alone have come against the likes of Stanford (73rd total offense), Washington (94th) and Utah (88th). The Fighting Irish are the best offense they have faced outside of UCLA and the Bruins put up 62 points and 580 yards of total offense against this defense. You also have to factor in that Notre Dame has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Everett Golson, who can beat you with both his arm and his legs.
Arizona State is getting to a point where they have been an excellent team to fade. the Sun Devils are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after winning at least 6 of their last 8 games. Arizona State is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 played in the month of November. Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the Pac-12 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game.
There’s also a nice system in play on Notre Dame. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 10 or more points, who have a winning record on the season and are playing another winning team are 45-21 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Fighting Irish.
Chip Chirimbes
Syracuse +3½
Well, they say 'the third time is a charm'. I sure hope so as the Duke Blue Devils are the public's choice and for good reason as they continue to get the money having won 15 of their last 16 regular season games while Syracuse has dropped six of their last seven and will without quarterback Terrel Hunt (broken leg). The Devils have been out-gained by each of it's last four opponents and as a favorite here that will suffer. Syracuse but will find a way to get the money here.
Doug Upstone
Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -23½
Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Auburn who average 6.2 or more yards per play, against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 7.25 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. Teams that have the offensive fire power of the Tigers are nearly impossible to stop in this situation. How so you ask, what about a 24-3 ATS record (88.9%) in the last 22 years!
Rob Vinciletti
UL Monroe vs. Appalachian St
Play: Appalachian St -4.5
State fits one of our tight long term dominator system that plays in home favorites from -2 to -30 that come in off a home shutout win vs an opponent like LA. Monroe off a loss. These teams with a licker subset cover 96%. State has a big edge on offense and is off consecutive blowouts. Their defense has kicked it up a notch too. They are 5-0 vs losing teams and LA. Monroe has lost the last 4 as a dog. Monroe has 2 wins over mediocre teams both at home and will get beat again here today. Take Appalachian St.
Steve Merril
Notre Dame vs. Arizona St
Play: Under 60½
Notre Dame has played in three straight high-scoring games with point totals of 93, 58, and 88. Off those three games, the oddsmakers had to inflate the total on this game by a few points, especially since the Sun Devils have the reputation of a high-scoring team. Notre Dame has played solid defense this season as the Irish are only giving up 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 28.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.
Arizona State also has a very good defense this season, and that has gone largely unnoticed. The Sun Devils are 5-3 to the Under while allowing just 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play. Over their last three games, Arizona State has allowed a total of 36 points. The Sun Devils’ offense is trending down as they’ve scored 26, 24, and 19 points in their last three games. These two teams played last season and that game ended in a 37-34 Notre Dame win. But these teams have changed this season, so we expect a lower scoring game between Notre Dame and Arizona State on Saturday afternoon.