Steve Janus
Baylor +5½
Baylor should not be catching more than a field goal against Oklahoma. The Bears are simply getting undervalued for their loss at West Virginia. I still think this is one of the best teams in the country. Oklahoma on the other hand is getting too much respect from a lopsided win against a bad Iowa State team. The Sooners looked nothing like an elite team in their previous three games prior to beating the Cyclones. They lost outright to both TCU and Kansas State and were outplayed in a win over Texas. For me the big key here is that the Oklahoma defense is not well equipped to stop the Bears' 5th ranked passing attack (349.0 ypg). The Sooners come in ranked an awful 107th in the country vs the pass (265.8 ypg). You also have to keep in mind that Baylor won last year's meeting 41-12, putting up over 450 yards of total offense. I'll take the points for some extra insurance, but I got Baylor winnings this game outright.
System - Road underdogs who are outrushing opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season, after a game where they outrushed their opponent by 200 or more yards, are 34-11 (76%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan St. -3.5
Ohio State has zero quality wins on the season, while the bad loss came against a down Virginia Tech team at home. Yes, it was J.T. Barrett's first home start (second overall) but there's no excuse losing to the Hokies in front of the Buckeye faithful. OSU has gained a lot of respect while cruising through a soft slate since then, but after seeing the way the Buckeyes faltered in the second half against Penn State it makes us believe Urban Meyer's squad isn't quite where they need to be to beat Michigan State in East Lansing. The Spartans slammed Nebraska, despite the final score, which didn't give a true read of the game. And MSU is virtually five gametime minutes away from a perfect record. The Spartans gave all Oregon could handle in Eugene if not for the final couple minutes of the third quarter and the first few minutes of the fourth quarter. Michigan State rolled-up 438 yards of offense in their 34-24 win over Ohio State in last year's Big-10 championship, shutting the door on Braxton Miller's passing game, holding the former Heisman hopeful to 8-of-21 through the air. This time I believe Marc Dantonio's and Pat Narduzzi's defense will be too much for Barrett to overcome and I don't believe OSU will exact revenge. I'm recommending a play on Michigan State minus the points.
Andy Iskoe
Duke -3.5
David Cutcliffe has done a remarkable job in building up the Duke program to a level not seen since Steve Spurrier worked his magic a quarter century ago. Two straight bowl appearances and a berth in last season's ACC Championship game have led to another solid Bowl bound season this year. Duke is 7-1 and could well meet Florida State once again in this season's ACC TItle game. The offense has been strong and the defense is improved as they catch a Syracuse team that has been plagued by injuries, especially at QB. The Orange has played a representative schedule but Duke already has conference road wins at Georgia Tech and Pitt. The Cuse is just 3-6 with one of those wins coming at home in their opener, in overtime over FCS Villanova. They already have home losses to Maryland and North Carolina State, teams no better than Duke and arguably somewhat weaker. Duke is playing with great confidence and momentum and can play from behind as well as protect a lead. My model calls for Duke to win this game by from 10 to 14 points which suggests laying just over a FG is justified.
Larry Ness
Baylor at Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma
The defending Big 12 champion Baylor Bears (7-1, 4-1) rebounded from their lone loss at West Virginia with a victory in which they allowed only 16 yards on the ground. QB Bryce Petty led the Bears to scores on 11 consecutive possessions in a 60-14 victory over Kansas last Saturday. However, in the postgame interview, the usually talkative QB couldn't manage much more than this: "Just ready for O-U." It speaks to the importance of this game for Baylor, as they play at eight-time conference champion Oklahoma this afternoon, a place where Baylor has NEVER won (0-11)!
Oklahoma does own a 21-2 series lead but the Baylor's two victories have come in the last three years at home, including a 41-12 win last year. If the Bears win out, they would be guaranteed no worse than a share of the Big 12 title, while a loss drops them into a tie with the Sooners. Baylor has struggled vs top-shelf teams away from home and Oklahoma does have the blueprint for beating Baylor. Oklahoma hopes to have Keith Ford back on the field, joining a backfield which saw three players (QB Trevor Knight plus RBs Alex Ross and Samaje Perine) run for over 100 yards as they rolled up 510 yards on the ground against Iowa State last Saturday, on its way to accumulating 751 yards of total offense, the fourth-highest in school history and the most under coach Bob Stoops.
Oklahoma has the ability to control the clock and limit Baylor’s offensive touches. The O.U. defense must do what West Va did, that is close its defense in the middle of the field, a tactic that West Va and Texas used last season when Bryce Petty’s QB ratings for those games were significantly lower than his average. Owning the blueprint is one thing, implementing it is another. The Sooners are 51-4 SU in Big 12 home games under Bob Stoops and I’m willing to lay the points.
Jesse Schule
Oregon at Utah
Pick: Under 60
The high flyin' mighty Ducks of Oregon will be on the road in Utah this Saturday. This could be a potential problem game for the Ducks, as they are once again dealing with injuries to their offensive line. We've already seen them struggle earlier is season, playing a close game at Washington State, and losing outright at home to Arizona.
The Utes aren't exactly an ideal opponent, considering that they lead the nation with 39 sacks so far this season. Utah's two losses this season have come by a combined four points, and all three of their games versus ranked opponents have been close, low scoring games.
Utah will rely on running back Devontae Booker to have a big game, he's coming off five straight games with over 100 yards. Utes QB Travis Wilson is coming off a poor performance at Arizona State, throwing for just 57 yards on 12-of-22 passing.
These teams have failed to score a combined 60 points in seven of the last eight head to head meetings, and the one exception was a home win for the Ducks. I expect Oregon to struggle offensively on the road in Utah, and this game should be close.
Ari Atari
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: New York Knicks +6½
The Knicks continue to struggle and the books have adjusted for it. Have they gone too far tonight? Is there room for us to take advantage and own the edge in this line? Absolutely.
I know you may hate it, but there’s simply too much added value and security to the play when you can grab the Knicks at +7.5 points. Consider buying an extra point.
Both teams are going to be on a back to back but even though they were both playing road games last night, the Knicks were still practically at home against Brooklyn. Atlanta meanwhile, suffered a heart breaking buzzer beater loss in double overtime at Charlotte. The Atlanta starters had to clock an average of 41 minutes with Jeff Teague at full speed for over 43 minutes and Al Horford at 37. Their big man is being carefully watched with the intention to reduce his minutes tonight in order to avoid yet another injury after a long lay-off last season.
Meanwhile in New York, all eyes are now on Amare to save the day. The Knicks are always in search of a hero and Carmelo simply isn’t one. He’ll just keep shooting until they turn off the lights and give him his enormous paycheck on the way out the door. The Hawks however allowed the Hornets to shoot 49.5% and if the Knicks can get open looks, then we’ll have a ball game. We want the Knicks to stay within 3 possessions. We should be able to get just that on a night like tonight.
Give the Hawks a day off and send them into Madison Square Garden on Monday. They’ll most likely have a better game there. The Knicks are a live dog tonight and are being given too many points. Take one more and you should be laughing.
NYK has won 3 of 4 in Atlanta. The Knicks are also 10-3 ATS in the last 13 in Atlanta and 6-0 ATS on the second leg of a back to back.
Mike Lundin
Minnesota vs. Montreal
Play: Under 5
Neither of those two teams have been very dangerous on the offense lately, with the Wild coming off two consecutive losses only tallying one goal and the Canadiens going 2-1-3 over their last six not scoring more than two goals in any of the games. Don't expect to see any goals on the power play in this encounter, both are ranked near the bottom of the league with the Canadiens having the better power play of the two teams scoring on less than 8% of their chances on the man advantage. Conversely, both teams have shown a solid penalty kill, both hovering around the 85% mark.
Darcy Kuemper has three shutouts over nine starts with a 1.77 GAA for the season. His last game was on Tuesday so he should come in well rested here. Carey Price has conceded 10 goals over his last two games, but this should be a good spot for him to get back on track against a misfiring Wild offense.
Ray Monohan
Louisville Cardinals -3
This is a good Louisville team that almost had Florida State last week. They are a strong defensive team, one that can take away the ground game of BC so even on the road I like them as the favourite by a FG. This is an important game in the ACC Atlantic and they should be fired up to get after the Eagles. Coach Petrino will show his worth to the program as a motivator as they bounce back in this one.
Dave Price
TCU -6.5
TCU pulled out a last second win at West Virginia last week, but I expect no letdown with the K-State Wildcats coming to town. K-State pulled off a last second victory over the Horned Frogs last season, and they haven't forgotten. TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games and 6-0 ATS in its last six at home. You want to fade road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are off three consecutive wins in conference play when they are matched up against a team that is off two consecutive wins over conference foes. Doing so has produced a 42-16 ATS mark since 1992. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 6.1 points on average and have lost by an average of 11.9 points.
Kyle Hunter
Air Force vs. UNLV
Play:Air Force -4½
The Air Force Falcons have plenty of reasons to be ready for this game. UNLV has upset Air Force in each of the last two years. The Rebels football program had been on the rise in recent years until this season, when things have really fallen apart. UNLV was declared ineligible for postseason action this year, and now they are sitting at 2-7 after having a nice bowl season last year. UNLV doesn't have a veteran quarterback taking care of the ball like they did last year. Now, it is Blake Decker, and he has had problems with inconsistency and too many turnovers this year. The Falcons running game is powerful, and UNLV ranks 125th out of 128 FBS teams in run defense. The Rebels allow 268 yards per game on the ground. Look for Air Force to run for at least 300 yards en route to a revenge win here. These are two teams headed in different directions right now.
Sam Martin
Florida at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Florida
Normally we would fade a team coming off a big win like Florida had last week against Georgia, but in a highly favorable rushing matchup on both sides of the ball, we'll lay the points with the Gators and look for Florida to come up with their second big win and ATS cover in as many weeks this Saturday at Vanderbilt.
Gators were a double-digit underdog but crushed the Bulldogs by 18 points - utilizing a dominant rushing attack that ended with 418 yards on the ground. Florida only attempted six passes, and they can basically do the exact same thing this week for a similar final result. Vandy can't stop the run, but more importantly they can't pass the ball either, and the one thing Florida has done consistently all year long was stop the run defensively. Gators running game dominant on both sides of the ball and they win this one big!
Harry Bondi
SAN JOSE STATE (+2) over Fresno State
San Jose State comes in a bit undervalued after two straight losses to Nevada and Colorado State, but the Spartans had more total yards than their opponent in both of those games and deserved a better fate. This is a team that has been a money-maker when pitted against a losing team, going 49-28 ATS in that situation and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games. There are real problems at Fresno State, as seen by its recent three-game losing streak. The once-proud Bulldogs defense is allowing 36.8 points per game and 236 yards rushing per game. Those numbers tell us they shouldn't be favored over anyone right now, so we'll happily grab the points.
Richard Witt
Kansas State +6
Respect both of these sides deeply, but given Wildcat HC Bill Snyder's redoubtable record when getting points at this level of competition over his (many) years of involvement in this sport, judge 'Cats to be a solid bargain, at this underdog level. TCU is a handful, but they're feeling more-than-marginal pressure to keep up the good work in their sustained quest to maintain their percentage chance to make NCAAF's Final Four. Such pressure will lead TCU to tread carefully, and to make it unlikely they'll take untoward, careless chance to extend a lead once attained. KState is too powerful offensively to be plowed under in Fort Worth. and as noted, Snyder retains a remarkable knack for success in this type of situation by playing consistently clean games in which mistakes are held to a bare minimum.
Dr. Bob
Top 25
Georgia (-10½) 32 KENTUCKY 22
Georgia’s rushing attack hasn’t been as good without suspended star RB Todd Gurley, who returns next week, but the line has been adjusted and there really isn’t much value at all on this game. My math mode favors Georgia by 9 ½ points with a total of 54 ½ points.
Wisconsin (-17½) 32 PURDUE 19
Purdue became an underrated team when Austin Appleby took over as the starting quarterback for a completely ineffective Danny Etling in week 6 against Illinois. Neither quarterback is a good passer but Appleby has been over 2 yards per pass play better (after compensating for opposition) and he also adds a very positive running element (223 yards at 7.7 yards per run). The Boilermakers are a perfect 4-0 ATS with Appleby as the starting quarterback and I’ll call for that streak to continue even with the huge blow to the pass attack with the season ending injury to top WR Danny Anthrop, who averaged 9.9 yards on the 62 passes intended for him. Even with that adjustment, and an adjustment for Purdue’ best defensive back Frankie Williams being out, I still only give Wisconsin by 13 points in this game. The Badgers will run for over 300 yards like they do every week but Purdue is projected to average 6.0 yards per rushing play and a decent 4.9 yards per play even without Anthrop. Part of the reason for the value on the big dog is that this game figures to have a very low number of total plays, as neither side plays with much tempo on offense and both figure to run more than they pass (especially Wisconsin). The fewer possessions per team, the less likely it is that a huge favorite will cover. I’ll lean with Purdue plus the points.
Strong Opinion – OKLAHOMA (-5) 41 Baylor 30
This recommendation towards the Sooners is more about the situation than about line value since the line on this game is pretty fair (I favor Oklahoma by 6 ½ points). I’m actually surprised that the math leaned with Oklahoma but a huge edge in special teams tipped the scale towards the Sooners mathematically. Oklahoma and Baylor are pretty even defensively, with the Bears rating at 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for opposing quarterbacks faced and excluding garbage time stats (their backups gave up a lot of yards to Buffalo and Kansas) and the Sooners rating at 0.6 yppl better than average but with more interceptions (1.25 per game to Baylor’s 0.71 per game). What was surprising is that Oklahoma’s offense is much better on a yards per play basis with the Sooners rating at 1.6 yppl better than average with QB Trevor Knight in the game (6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while Baylor rates at 0.8 yppl better than average with Bryce Petty in the game (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). The difference is in the running attacks, as Baylor is just average running the ball (5.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp to an average team) while Oklahoma, with the help of Knight’s scrambles, is 1.1 yprp better than average (6.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team).
Overall, Oklahoma has a significant edge in compensated yards per play but Baylor runs 17 more plays per game than their opponents and is projected to run 14 more plays from scrimmage in this game. My line of scrimmage rating, which is a combination of total yards and yards per play and compensated for opposing teams, rates these teams that same with Oklahoma at 20.4 points per game better than average for the line of scrimmage and Baylor at +20.5 points. Part of the reason Oklahoma doesn’t run more plays than their opponents is because the Sooners’ outstanding special teams gives the offense shorter fields to work with, which requires fewer plays to navigate. With the special teams and projected turnovers (slightly in favor of Baylor) factored in I get Oklahoma by 6 ½ points in this game. That’s not significant line value but the Sooners apply to a 116-42 ATS home momentum situation while Baylor applies to a negative 21-63-4 ATS road letdown situation. I like this game for the situation and because Baylor’s offense has played poorly in 2 of 3 games against good defensive teams (4.8 yppl against Texas and 4.0 yppl in their loss at West Virginia) while Oklahoma’s offense has only been slowed down once (4.6 yppl against Texas) while performing well at TCU (461 yards at 6.0 yppl) and especially in their fluke loss to Kansas State, in which they gained 533 yards at 6.9 yppl. Oklahoma has a more consistent offense and I’ll call for the Sooners to get the win. I’ll consider Oklahoma a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ points or less.
Duke (-3½) 27 SYRACUSE 24
Duke is certainly not worthy of being ranked despite their shiny 7-1 record but Syracuse has fallen on hard times since dynamic quarterback Terrel Hunt was injured 5 weeks ago against Louisville. Backups Austin Wilson and A.J. Long have been considerably worse in the passing game and neither runs like Hunt did (324 yards at 6.6 yards per run). Wilson was the #2 quarterback before his injury forced freshman Hunt into the starting role the last 3 games and now Wilson is back and Hunt is injured. Wilson was actually performing at a pretty good level in his start against Florida State before getting injured, compiling 88 yards on 10 pass plays, but he was horrible in relief against Louisville (-15 yards on 4 pass plays) and below average in the opener against Villanova after Hunt was ejected (just 5.2 yards per pass play against a Nova defense that would allow 7.9 yppp to an average FBS quarterback). Even with the negative adjustments I still get Duke by only 3 points in this game, so the line is fair.
ARIZONA STATE (-2½ ) 32 Notre Dame 28
My math model favored Arizona State by 2 ½ points before adjusting the model for current lineups but Taylor Kelly being back at quarterback for the Sun Devils is a negative. Backup quarterback Mike Bercovici was great when called upon to start when Kelly injured his foot, and he’s averaged 7.2 yards per pass play while facing good defensive teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Kelly, meanwhile, has averaged 6.7 yppp but he’s done so against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Kelly’s running ability makes up for some of that difference but overall the Sun Devils are 0.3 yppl worse with Kelly than they are overall. ASU is still 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively with Kelly taking the snaps, which is the same rating as the Notre Dame defense. The Irish have a distinct advantage when they have the ball, as their attack has been 0.7 yppl better than average while ASU’s defense is only 0.2 ypl better than average. However, the Sun Devils’ defensive numbers have been skewed upwards by the 10.6 yards per play that they allowed to UCLA. That unit has been 1.2 yppl better than average in 4 games since that debacle (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) and my model adjusts for variance and rates the Sun Devils higher than their average numbers would. The math only favors ASU by 1 point but the Sun Devils apply to a very good 160-76-2 ATS situation and that will have me leaning with the home team.
West Virginia (-3) 27 TEXAS 24
West Virginia has faced a lot of good defensive teams this season and yet the Mountaineers have managed to average 34 points per game and score at least 30 points against every team aside from the 23 points they scored against Alabama (although it should have been more given the 412 yards at 6.1 yards per play). The Mounties’ offense, which rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average, have another challenge this week dealing with an elite Texas defense that’s yielded just 4.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit. West Virginia’s overlooked but solid defense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) has an even bigger advantage over a sub-par Longhorns’ attack that is 0.1 yppl worse than average with Tyrone Swoopes at quarterback (he’s started since week 2) and overall the math model favors the Mountaineers by 3 points. I’ll pass.
Florida State (-20½) 38 Virginia 22
Florida State was impressive in coming back from a 0-21 deficit at Louisville but that was only the second time all season that the Seminoles have cashed a ticket for their backers and they remain overrated. Virginia is on a bit of a pointspread slide themselves, dropping 4 straight to the number after starting the season with 5 spread wins, but the Cavaliers apply to a 91-42-3 ATS road dog bounce-back situation that is based on their recent woes and this could be a bit of a flat spot for Florida State after last week’s thrilling nationally televised win and with Miami coming up next week. My math model gives Virginia a 54.7% chance of covering and I don’t have a problem with that projection.
Strong Opinion – SOUTHERN MISS (+25½) 22 Marshall 42
Marshall has been beating up on bad teams since the beginning of last season (10-2-1 ATS favored by 14 or more) but the premium price you have to pay to play on Marshall is getting too steep and my math model is picking against the Thundering Herd for a 2nd straight game (they failed to cover as a 28 point favorite in a 19 point win against FAU before their bye week). The line on this game may be even more inflated due to the absence of Southern Mississippi’s starting quarterback Nick Mullens, who was injured early in the game two weeks ago against Louisiana Tech and missed last week’s loss to UTEP. Mullens is expected to miss this game too but backup Cole Weeks has now had the opportunity to have 100 pass plays and his compensated yards per pass play (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) is actually a bit better than Mullen’s compensated numbers (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp). The difference is Mullens’ lower interception percentage (2.7% per pass play to Weeks’ 4 picks in 100 pass plays), so overall Weeks is a bit worse – but not enough to justify this huge line. I think the line is inflated because of last week’s 21 point loss at UTEP (as a 7 point dog), but that result is very misleading given that Southern Miss dominated the line of scrimmage 403 yards at 5.5 yards per play to 235 yards at 3.7 yppl for UTEP. In addition to Weeks’ 2 interceptions the Eagles also lost 3 fumbles, which is what contributed to a big loss when they really were the better team. That result, in addition to the public’s desire to bet on Marshall as a big favorite, has supplied the line value necessary to recommend Southern Miss here as a Strong Opinion. Not only is the line to high (it should be 22 points) but Marshall applies to a negative 45-92-1 ATS big road favorite off a bye week angle and unbeaten (5-0 or better) road favorites of 7 points or more are just 11-32-1 ATS following a bye week. Southern Miss, meanwhile, applies to a 110-49-3 ATS situation that plays on teams with bad spread records late in the season. I’ll consider Southern Miss a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more.
UCLA (-6½) 32 WASHINGTON 21
There are some changes going on at Washington, as likely All-Pac 12 LB Shaq Thompson is now a full time running back and no longer plays defense while potential 1st round NFL draft pick CB Marcus Peters has been dismissed from the team. That’s two significant pieces of a solid defense (5.3 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) that are no longer playing on that side of the ball and Washington was lit up through the air in week 3 by Illinois (20 for 30 passing for 279 yards) in the game that Peters missed due to suspension. If UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has time to throw he should have some big plays against two freshman cornerbacks. Having time to throw, however, could be an issue, as UCLA tends to allow a lot of sacks (3.3 per game against teams that average 2.7 sacks) while Washington averages 4.1 sacks on defense (against teams that allow an average of 2.6 sacks). Sacks are part of my yards per pass play ratings and the projection is for Hundley to get sacked 4 or 5 times (4.5 is the projection) while still averaging 6.5 yards per pass play in this game. The Bruins’ strong rushing attack (240 yards at 5.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) should also produce better than average numbers against a Washington run defense that is 0.6 yprp better than average and overall the Bruins are projected to gain 479 yards at 5.9 yards per play.
Washington’s offense is better with Thompson at running back, as he’s averaged 136 yards at 7.6 yards per run the last two weeks since becoming the featured back, but he also had the luxury of facing Colorado last week and the Buffaloes would allow 6.4 yards per rushing play to an average back. Despite Thompson’s great average the Washington rushing attack has still been below average the last two weeks, averaging 5.4 yards per rushing play against Arizona State and Colorado, who would combine to allow 5.7 yprp to an average team. The Huskies pass attack is also below average, as Cyler Miles averages just 6.1 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). Miles is effective because he throws high percentage passes and has only been intercepted once all season but the Huskies are only projected to average 4.9 yards per play (for 348 yards) against a UCLA defense that is 0.6 yppl better than average.
Washington normally has an advantage with turnovers because of their conservative offense (they’re +12 in turnover margin) but UCLA doesn’t turn the ball over either (Hundley has thrown just 4 interceptions). Normally teams that are that positive in turnovers are a bit overrated and that is particularly the case with Washington because they’ve have 7 defensive touchdowns off turnovers (while giving up just one turnover TD). That’s a 4.7 points per game difference in defensive touchdowns, which explains why my model thinks the Huskies are overrated. My model favors UCLA by 10 ½ points and I was considering this game as a possible play earlier in the week when the line was a bit lower (it would have been a strong opinion at -5 or less) but I’ll still lean with the Bruins minus the points.
TCU (-6½) 29 Kansas State 28
It’s tough going against either one of these teams, as Kansas State has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games with their only straight up loss being by just 6 points to Auburn in a game they should have won, and with TCU having started the season with 7 spread wins before failing to cover last week in a 1 point win as a 3 point favorite at West Virginia. TCU has played 3 good teams and all 3 of those games have been close – a 4 point win over Oklahoma, a 3 point loss to Baylor and last week’s 1 point win at West Virginia. Beating Kansas State by a touchdown or more will likely require getting the Wildcats to make mistakes that they don’t normally make but TCU has the type of defense that forces teams to make mistakes, as the Horned Frogs force an average of 3.2 turnovers per game. Kansas State only turns the ball over an average of 0.9 times per game, so something has to give. My math model is predicting 1.8 turnovers for Kansas State and a 1 point win for TCU in a game that is very close from a compensated yards per play perspective with Kansas State being 1.9 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (+0.8 yppl on offense and +1.1 yppl on defense) while TCU is 2.1 yppl better than average (+1.3 yppl on offense and +0.8 yppl on defense). The reason that my model doesn’t favor TCU by more than the standard 3.5 points for home field advantage is because Kansas State’s special teams rank in the top 5 in the nation while TCU is mediocre in special teams aside from their good field goal kicker. That field position advantage could be the difference and my model would still lean with the Wildcats even if special teams were even. I like Kansas State plus the points and I’d consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
MICHIGAN STATE (-3½) 30 Ohio State 22
These teams are very evenly matched but the situation favors Michigan State to cover at home and the Spartans are the team with an advantage from the line of scrimmage. Ohio State is known as a potent offensive team while Michigan State is known for their defense but the Spartans actually have the better offense. MSU has averaged 7.1 yards per play with quarterback Connor Cook in the game while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team (so, 1.5 yppl better than average). Ohio State, meanwhile, has averaged 6.7 yards per play with quarterback J.T. Barrett under center while facing teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team for a rating of +0.9 yppl. The defensive units are actually very similar, as the Spartans’ defense rates at 1.0 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) while the Buckeye’s stop unit is also 1.0 yppl better than average, yielding just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Michigan State has a pretty solid overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but that’s negated a bit by Ohio State’s large advantage in special teams, which will help with field position. Overall the math favors Michigan State by 5 ½ points and veteran Cook has proven to be much more capable of playing well against a good defense while Buckeyes’ freshman Barrett has averaged just 5.3 yards per pass play against the 3 better than average pass defenses he’s faced this season (Virginia Tech, Maryland and Penn State) while putting up big numbers against bad defensive teams). Michigan State also applies to a solid 114-53-2 ATS situation and I favor the Spartans to win and cover in this Big 10 showdown.
ARIZONA (-17) 42 Colorado 25
Arizona’s offense was shut down last week at UCLA but the Wildcats will enjoy some home cooking against a horrible Colorado defense that can’t stop the run (211 yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play allowed) and are also 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average defending the pass. The other side of the ball is a matchup between a mediocre Buffaloes’ offense and a mediocre Arizona defense and overall the line looks a bit high, as my math model favors the Wildcats by just 14 ½ points. However, Arizona applies to a 50-18 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation that was based on last week’s loss. I’ll pass.
Alabama (-6½) 27 LSU 21
Alabama is the most complete team in the nation, as the Tide are excellent in all facets of the game. Alabama’s defense ranks 3rd in compensated run defense and 9th in compensated pass defense (5th in overall defense) while starting quarterback Sims has my #1 compensated passing efficiency rating, averaging 9.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.7 yppp to an average team. The only facets of the Alabama team that aren’t elite are the rushing attack, which is nearly good (5.4 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) and their special teams, which ranks 25th in the nation. LSU is very good defensively (13th in my ratings at 1.0 yards per play better than average) but the Tigers are inconsistent offensively due to their reliance on big pass plays (17.1 yards per catch but just 51% completions). The LSU rushing attack is just 0.3 yards per rushing play better than average (5.2 yprp against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team), so the Tigers could be in trouble in this game if they don’t hit on a few big pass plays against an Alabama defense that doesn’t give up too many long passes (just 10.8 yards per completion allowed). My math model favors Alabama by 9 ½ points in this game but LSU applies to a 44-6-1 ATS subset of a 87-32-2 ATS home dog off a bye angle that I prefer not to go against.
Oregon (-8) 38 UTAH 26
Oregon is no longer being held in check by very good defensive teams, as they have been the last few seasons, which was illustrated again last week with the 45 points on 528 yards that they tallied against Stanford’s highly rated defense after scoring an average of just 17 points against the Cardinal the previous 2 years. The Ducks also put 46 points on the scoreboard against Michigan State and averaged 43.5 points against UCLA and Washington’s good defensive unit. The quality of the opposing defense doesn’t appear to matter at all, as the one mediocre offensive showing for Oregon this season was against a mediocre Arizona defense while their only other game below 42 points was against a sub-par Washington State defense. My math model, which assumes that the strength of the opposing defense matters, projects Oregon to score 35 points on 524 yards at 6.6 yards per play but I suspect they’ll score more than that against a very good Utah defense that hasn’t allowed more than 28 points or 5.8 yppl to any team all season.
If Utah’s defensive strength is not a factor against Oregon’s offense then the Utes are in trouble since their offense hasn’t averaged more than 4.9 yppl since facing a bad Fresno State defense in week 2. Utah consistently has scored a decent number of points because they have the nation’s best special teams units to set them up in good field position and score an occasional touchdown. Special teams did not bail out the Utes in last week’s 16-19 overtime loss at Arizona State and that close loss sets up Utah in a very negative 50-128-2 ATS letdown situation this week. My math model picks this game right on the number, choosing Oregon by 8 points, but Oregon’s strong tendency to play better against better defensive teams and the negative situation that applied to Utah have me on the side of the Ducks.
SPORTS WAGERS
UTAH +9 over Oregon
Most places have the Utes getting eight but we find a +9 at SIA and that’s where we’ll play it. We still like the Utes getting +8 if you don’t have an account at SIA. The Utes are in desperate need of a win to stay alive in a very competitive and deep divisional race. Utah is coming in off a heartbreaking road loss to division leader Arizona State, losing by just a field goal. In fact, Utah's two losses were suffered by a combined margin of four points. Utah has been in every game that it has lost and has impressive victories as an underdog over both Michigan and UCLA on the road and USC at home. The Utes are anchored by a defense that is excellent against the run, which bodes well here because Oregon has always been a run-first team. Utah also has an excellent rushing attack led by what many regard as one the most underrated running back in college football in Devonate Booker. This is a rock solid 6-2 Utes squad that could easily be 8-0.
When you wager on the Ducks there is always a premium to pay because the market loves high scoring teams that put up crooked numbers every week. With the ability to score 50 a week, seemingly at will, spotting more than a converted TD with the Ducks has become commonplace and profitable. It’s easy to get on board with this team but we see a major collapse around the corner with this program. Oregon's defense has been porous all year against both the run and pass and once again offers a potential vulnerability that can easily be exploited. The key to Oregon's victories have always been their ability to simply outscore their opponents, opponents that may not be as reputable on defense as Utah's unit. When the Ducks lost to Arizona earlier in the year, they scored just 24 points and Utah's defense is better than Arizona’s. We get the less popular Utes at home getting 9 big points in a game they have an equal chance of winning. That’s true value so don’t be afraid to play the Utes in a couple of small parlays on the money line as well. Big overlay.
VANDERBILT +14 over Florida
The Gators enter on a high note, after handily defeating their arch rivals, the Bulldogs of Georgia, last Saturday. However, the Gators may be entering on a "hangover" from last week's victory. It has been seen time and time again, a team comes in off a huge win and suddenly gets caught in the snares of a trap game. The Gators are poised to fall prey to a scenario of this nature.
While the Commodores are by no means a national contender, Coach Derrick Mason has managed to coach his team to be competitive in matches against divisional foes. First, there was the exquisite special teams play orchestrated by the Commodores against South Carolina, which allowed them to put up 34 points against the Gamecocks and rile up Coach Steve Spurrier. Vanderbilt was also in the game against Missouri and Kentucky, losing by a combination of twenty points in those two affairs. Now, the Commodores get the Gators, a team that is rather one-dimensional with an unproven quarterback that the offensive coordinator has yet to invest faith in. The Gators beat the Bulldogs throwing the ball just six times because the Dawgs were not prepared. A large line undermined the ferocity of the rivalry game and the Gators made the most of it, now the roles may reverse. Florida is positioned to potentially make the same mistake as a large favorite against Vanderbilt that both Missouri and Kentucky made. This is a great situational play that we often look for, that being an overvalued, ranked road team, coming off a hugely emotional win against an unranked opponent. The value is on the Commodores and we’re on it.
Texas-El Paso +8½ over W. KENTUCKY
Western Kentucky comes in with a 3-5 overall record and a 1-4 conference record. It wasn’t supposed to be this way for the Hilltoppers, as they came into the year with much higher expectations. However, with a defense that can’t stop the marching band, WKU’s offense is forced to score on almost every possession and that’s a tall order every week. Over the past four weeks, the Hilltoppers have allowed 42 points to UAB, 45 to Florida Atlantic, 51 to Old Dominion and 59 last week to Louisiana Tech in a 59-10 walloping. WKU might have to score 60 to cover this number.
Despite being a heavy dog numerous times this season and prevailing against the spread, the UTEP Miners are once again being offered too much weight, this time in the Hilltoppers barn. The Miners enter on a three-game winning streak. Over that span they defeated Old Dominion, UTSA and Southern Miss. They scored 34 points or more in all three games and previously went off for 28 points against then #25 K-State. As a 21-point pooch against Texas Tech, UTEP lost by just four. Two weeks ago, we had them as an 11-point pooch against Texas San Antonio and they won outright, 34-0. With a 5-3 record and a proficient rushing attack led by Aaron Jones, the Miners have a game plan that could prove effective against a pass-heavy attack led by Western Kentucky's Brandon Doughty. Doughty is regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in Conference USA but like the team he plays for, has not performed up to expectations. For whatever reason, the market doesn’t like these Miners and once again we’ll look to take advantage of receiving a generous amount of points with them.
LSU +6½ over Alabama
There are few rivalries bigger in the SEC than the LSU-Alabama rivalry. This is a game that has provided championship implications in the past and this year is no different. Alabama defeated LSU in a historic national championship game where the Tide would put on what many would say is one of the greatest defensive performances in college football history. This will be another storied chapter of this ancient SEC West feud, as #4 Alabama (7-1) will travel to Death Valley to square off with a formidable LSU team.
LSU (7-2) enters as a significant home underdog but they still offer a lot of upside. First, LSU rarely loses at home, especially at night. In recent history, the Tigers have lost just a handful of games in these settings. The world bore witness two weeks ago when Mississippi entered as a three-point favorite and fell to the Tigers in dramatic fashion within the confines of Death Valley. Many argued that the then undefeated Rebels may have been the best team in the country and their vaunted "Landsharks" defense would shut down LSU's offense on its own field. Needless to mention, the outcome was far different and LSU ran all over Mississippi and handed them their first defeat. Les Miles will likely institute a similar approach against Alabama and perhaps it may pay similar dividends. In summation, the "Bayou Bengals" are aware they can beat top-caliber opponents and have done so recently and frequently. In addition to the stellar performance against Mississippi, LSU managed to win against Wisconsin in similar fashion to open the season. Given the nature of the rivalry and the fact that it is played at Tiger Stadium, LSU will have a great chance of covering the spread and/or pulling off yet another upset.