Tony Bucca
Louisville -3
Ultimately the team that can move the ball more consistently, wins. BC depends on their ground game. The Cardinals average 2.7 yards allowed per attempt on the ground. It'll be close throughout being that it is in Boston College, but Louisville will win by a TD.
Alex Smart
NY Islanders vs. Arizona Coyotes
Play: NY Islanders -125
The Islanders are off back to back wins vs top tier teams the LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks. They now take a step down in class and despite of being on the tail end of a grueling western 5 game road trip, Im betting the Isles still have enough left in the tank to dispose of a very inconsistent Arizona side. The Coyotes have played a little better of late , especially at home, but their biggest problems, will come via their offense in this matchup as the Isles are loaded with offensive talent ie Tavares, Okposo, Nelson, Neilson. Under most circumstances I cannot see the desert dogs keeping up on the scoreboard. With that said, look for the much improved Islanders to notch their 6th road victory of the season. Note: Islanders are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
John Ryan
Georgia State vs. Troy
Play: Troy -7
The simulator shows a high probability that Troy will win this game by 9 or more points. Both teams are having difficult seasons each posting 1 win on the season. Troy is 1-4 in conference play while Georgia State is winless. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark for 28-5 ATS and 85% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs (GEORGIA ST) outrushed by their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season and after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games. 53% of these games played covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 48-18 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. This system is a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 46% of all plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on a home team (TROY) in a game involving 2 terrible teams being outscored by opponents by 10+ PPG after 7 or more games of the regular season and after allowing 42 points or more last game. Troy's defense has struggled this season, but are now facing an offensive unit that is perhaps the worst on their schedule to date. Georgia State (GS) are gaining just 2.2 yards per rush in road games and just 1.7 yards per rush over their last three games. The defense is allowing 7.0 yards per rush in conference games and 7.7 YPR over the last three games. Even more alarming is that the GS defense has posted a 12.1 yards-per-point ratio. This simply means that for every 12.1 yards allowed it puts one point on the scoreboard. A ratio of 15 to 17 is average with numbers nigher reflecting increasingly better defensive units. In a another meaningful ratio, they rank 126th in the nation posting a 0.573 points-per-play. This reflects that most scoring drives they allow occur rapidly and are not made by long scoring drives. I believe Troy has a big day and wins easily.
Jeff Alexander
Texas +3.5
This is a letdown spot for West Virginia following last week's deflating last second defeat to TCU. Now the Mountaineers are on the road, where they are extremely fortunate to be 3-0 in true road games. They managed to sneak by Maryland and Texas Tech by the skin of their teeth, beating each by only 3 points, but they are in serious danger here against a Texas squad that needs to win 2 of its last 3 to become bowl eligible. The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games versus teams with a losing record. Grab Texas and the points.
Will Rogers
Canucks vs. Kings
Play: Over 5
The Vancouver Canucks have started a four game road trip with back-to-back wins as they get set to face the Los Angeles Kings tonight. We have the total set at five goals for this game but I think these two teams have enough offensive firepower to light the lamp a few times tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Eddie Lack - It is very likely that the Canucks will turn to their backup goalie tonight as Ryan Miller started Thursday and they have a game against the Ducks tomorrow. Lack is 0-3 with a 4.19 GAA conceding 15 goals over his three starts and conceded seven against the Avs his last time out on the road.
2. Vancouver on the road - The Canucks are in the middle of a four game road trip which will take them to Anaheim tomorrow. They have played the Avs and the Sharks prior to tonight's game, scoring eight while conceding four. Nine of their last 14 games on the road have gone over the total.
3. X-factor - Henrik (5+10) and Daniel Sedin (3+11) have a combined one goal and three assists over the last two games.
Andy Iskoe
Duke -3.5
David Cutcliffe has done a remarkable job in building up the Duke program to a level not seen since Steve Spurrier worked his magic a quarter century ago. Two straight bowl appearances and a berth in last season's ACC Championship game have led to another solid Bowl bound season this year. Duke is 7-1 and could well meet Florida State once again in this season's ACC TItle game. The offense has been strong and the defense is improved as they catch a Syracuse team that has been plagued by injuries, especially at QB. The Orange has played a representative schedule but Duke already has conference road wins at Georgia Tech and Pitt. The Cuse is just 3-6 with one of those wins coming at home in their opener, in overtime over FCS Villanova. They already have home losses to Maryland and North Carolina State, teams no better than Duke and arguably somewhat weaker. Duke is playing with great confidence and momentum and can play from behind as well as protect a lead. My model calls for Duke to win this game by from 10 to 14 points which suggests laying just over a FG is justified.
Air Force -5.5
After making it a Bowl for the first time in more than a decade last season UNLV had expectations that this season would build upon last season's success. Such has not been the case and although the Rebels have sustained an unusually high number of injuries that excuse, alone, cannot explain this season's misfortunes. The talent and depth is just not there. Air Force plummeted to 2-10 last season that ended a run of 6 straight Bowl trips. Included in that record was an ugly late season, nationally televised 41-21 loss to UNLV, a second straight loss that followed 5 straight wins in this series. The matchups suggest Air Force, with the #11 rushing offense (271 ypg) will have success against UNLV's #125 rush defense (268 ypg). Air Force also has a significant edge in turnover margin (+4 vs -10) and is playing with great confidence after last week's road win at Army to clinch the Commander In Chief Trophy. The memory of last season's spanking lessens the likelihood of a letdown whereas the Rebels are a dispirited group.
LSU +6.5
I have been picking apart this game all week and have alternated between LSU and Alabama as to which is the right side. As I dug deeper and deeper it became clear to me that LSU has an excellent chance to pull the outright upset. Both teams are rebuilding from last season. Alabama has gotten much more attention with its 7-1 record (but just 2-5 ATS) and its more lofty ranking. But LSU is a solid 7-2 (6-2-1 ATS). The Tigers have won 3 in a row since starting 4-2 with an offense that relies more on the run than on the pass. Alamaba is 0-4 ATS away from home which includes a 1 point non-covering win at Arkansas and the 6 point road loss at Ole Miss. If the Tide can struggle at those two conference venues why can't they struggle at one of the nation's toughest home fields, especially at night? LSU's only poor effort came a month ago in a 41-7 loss at Auburn. Although Alabama defeated LSU in the BCS Title game a few seasons back, LSU has actually won 6 of 10 regular season meetings over the past decade. Both teams are loaded with talented, athletic players, many of whom will play on Sundays. This should be a typical, physical closely contested game likely to be decided late, with my model calling for the final margin to be a FG.
Scott Delaney
My free play for today is on the UNLV Rebels in their second-to-last home game of the season, as they're catching points from Air Force, and it's the right week to back the boys from Vegas.
Last week was a tough break for the Rebels, who just missed out on getting into overtime against New Mexico, as junior walk-on placekicker Brian McIntyre's 55-yard field-goal attempt fell just under the crossbar.
The Rebels could be winless, just as much as as they could have a couple more wins on their docket. It's been a rough season, there's no doubt about that, and even though they're no longer bowl eligible, it doesn't mean they aren't capable of closing the season with some pride.
UNLV generally plays the Falcons tough, and I expect nothing to change here, especially since the Academy is a surprising 0-9 against the number, immediately after finishing its competition for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy against Navy and Army. That's what you call a letdown. Now the airmen are in Vegas, and the Rebels are pissed off and desperately could use a blowout win.
The Rebels have won and covered their last two against Air Force, while they've covered three of their last four. Plus, UNLV is on a 4-0 run at Sam Boyd Stadium when hosting the Falcons. Add in the fact the Rebels are on a 14-6 ATS run as a home pup and I think we have a solid play here with the home underdog
5♦ UNLV
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Michigan State Spartans over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the most important game in the Big 10 this year.
The loser is done... out of the playoff picture for good. The winner has a legitimate shot to run the table, win the conference championship game, and possibly sneak in as the #4 seed in the tourney.
Listen, it's no surprise that the rest of the country dogs on the Big 10.
Remember, it used to be the best conference in college football for many years back in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. Even the 90s had their moments... but only one team from the Big 10 since 2000 has competed for a National Championship... and that was Ohio State (three times --- one win and two losses).
Having said that, these two teams know how important tonight's game is not only for Big 10 and National seeding... but for style points.
Both teams not only want to win this game, but they want to win it convincingly so they can earn some style points for the committee. Michigan State already had a leg up on Ohio State because their only loss was at Oregon in a game they dominated the first half, but completely fell apart in the second half. It was also a road game so that definitely plays into their hands in terms of strength of schedule.
Ohio State's claim to fame? A home game vs. Virginia Tech. Now granted, when these games were scheduled, Virginia Tech was a very good football team competing for BCS bowl games every year... they can't really help the fact that the Hokies have fallen on hard times. But they could control the fact that they were embarrassed by this horrendous team at home... all but eliminating them from contention early in the season.
The biggest difference tonight will be at the QB position. JT Barrett has played well when Ohio State dominates their opponent and he's not facing pressure. But in the two tightest games of the year, VTech and Penn State, he was nowhere to be found. In fact, just knowing that they let Penn State back in the game is all I need to know that they can't hang with Michigan State today.
Penn State is not a good football team, and probably should have pulled off the "upset". Michigan State hasn't been challenged by a single Big 10 opponent and I don't really think they'll be challenged tonight.
Take the Spartans as your free play of the day.
5♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Ragin' Cajuns to roll on in Las Cruces against the Aggies of New Mexico State.
UL Lafayette is playing their best football of the year, winning 4 straight while covering in each of their last 3 wins.
The same cannot be said for New Mexico State, as the Aggies 2-0 start to the year is in the distant past, as they come in having lost 7 in a row while going 1-5-1 against the spread during the slide. Not only that, but the Aggies defense (what defense?) has allowed over 40 points per game during the skid.
Lafayette won last year's meeting 49-35, but they were laying an absurd -32 1/2 points in that meeting. Tonight's meeting may be on the road, but at least the Cajuns are laying about half that amount in this meeting.
Go with the bowl-seeking road favorite against the going-nowhere host.
2♦ UL LAFAYETTE
Gabriel Dupont
I am playing Georgia Southern on the road Saturday, as I think it will annihilate Texas State.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working with Georgia Southern - Offense. The Eagles continue to impress some folks in their inaugural Sun Belt Conference campaign, as they come in after a 42-10 beatdown of Troy on national television. Georgia Southern is now riding a six-game winning streak, it's undefeated in Sun Belt play, and is in after amassing 421 yards rushing to maintain the top team rushing average in the nation.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against Texas State - Average homers. Texas State, for as well as it's doing this year, is just 2-2 at home this season. Texas State has a combined record of 13-9 in home games since 2011, but it doesn't seem to be able to hold its ground against superior competition. The Bobcats might hang tough early, but it won't be able to contain the soaring Eagles.
In conclusion, why Georgia State is my SMART PLAY in this game - Georgia Southern has had extra time off for this one, as it defeated Troy on the previous Thursday, which helps when traveling to a tough stadium. The Eagles' extra preparation will shine on defense, where they needed to prepare for an equally impressive running team.
The Eagles' defense was impressive against Troy, as it allowed just 83 yards of total offense through three quarters and 154 for the game. The Trojans were forced to punt six times and were without a touchdown until the final 1:18 of the game. Georgia Southern is one of the best covering teams in the nation, with an 8-1 ATS mark, and will continue to roll here.
5♦ GEORGIA STATE
Chris Jordan
Both coaches have downplayed today's rivalry in East Lansing, Mich., but knowing how fiery Michigan State coach Mark DiAntonio can get (see Michigan game) and how much Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is known for running up the score, I think they both know there's plenty to this one today.
Michigan State hasn't lost to a Big Ten school since 2012, while Bucky is 20-0 in regular-season conference play under Meyer, and a loss to the Spartans in the 2013 title game still stings.
The stakes are high in this one, and my second free winner for today is on the Spartans, as I like the home chalk here.
Personally, I tend to side with offensive teams, thinking if they find a groove - especially at home - there isn't much that can be done. And with quarterback Connor Cook, running back Jeremy Langford and wide receiver Tony Lippett, Michigan State has plenty of options on that side of the ball.
That doesn't mean I don't respect Michigan State's defense, which boasts standous on the D-line, including Shilique Calhoun and Marcus Rush. If they wreak havoc early enough, you're going to see Ohio State buckle and open the flood gats for Cook and company to roll here.
Lay the chalk, and if you're saddled with a 3 or 3', be sure to buy the half point down.
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Brad Wilton
Huge win for Auburn in Oxford last Saturday night, and now the Tigers sure look like they are in control of their own destiny as they look to stay in the fist ever college playoff in January.
Have to side with the Tigers at home to lower the boom on a Texas A&M team that is relying on redshirt freshman Kyle Allen to keep pace with Nick Marshall and the Auburn attack.
The Aggies ended a 3 game slide with an escape-job against UL Monroe last weekend, 21-16 as the -34 point favorite! Good luck tonight Kevin Sumlin.
Auburn pulled the 45-41 upset last year over A&M in College Station, and the sledding this afternoon should be a lot easier as the Aggies are allowing 31 points per game this year. Gus Malzahn moves the Tigers one step closer to the college playoff with a home blowout rout of Texas A&M.
Lay it with the Tigers.
3♦ AUBURN
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary -½ +150 over FLORIDA
Regulation only. In two games against Philadelphia this past week, the Panthers scored three goals. In their past 10 games, the Panthers have scored one goal seven times. In other words, Florida’s most common number of goals scored per game is one. The Panthers have played two 1-0 games so far and five 2-1 games. When you score once per game you are always in serious danger of losing and that makes taking back a tag against the Panthers very appealing indeed. Florida has been stingy defensively but we couldn’t care less because if the Flames can score twice, we have a great chance of cashing this ticket.
Calgary continues its five game road trip here. They have gone 2-1 thus far with victories over Montreal and Washington and a loss against Tampa Bay. Incidentally, the Flames scored 12 times in those three games and that’s with the electric Johnny Gaudreau very much under the weather with flu-like symptoms. Aside from being the hardest working team on ice with perhaps the best core of defensemen, the best thing about wagering on the Flames is that they stay out of the box. Over their past nine games, Calgary has taken just 17 minors, which is less than two a game. Over their past four games, Calgary has taken just six minors. That’s significant here because the Panthers are less capable of scoring on five on five play than any team in the NHL. In 11 games, Florida has 10 five on five goals, which is four less than the Sabres 14. The Flames have scored 28 five on five goals. Lastly, this is a matinee game in Florida that goes off at 3 PM. There will be more people watching bowling in Florida than there will be at this game and that doesn’t bode well for the Panthers morale. Playing to a ¾ empty arena is somewhat depressing and not very energizing for the host and these determined Flames figure to take advantage of everything wrong with the Panthers.
Minnesota -½ +165 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. When teams get into an OT game with the Canadiens and don’t win it in the five-minute drill, chances are they are going to lose it in the shootout because Carey Price doesn’t often lose shootouts. Instead of taking the Wild including OT, we see much more value in backing them in regulation only. Aside from goaltending, there is a lot to like about the Wild here. First, there is a ceremony before the game begins that is sure to take at least a half hour. The Canadiens are retiring Guy Lapointe’s #5 jersey and that’s a bit odd considering he played in the 70’s. In any case, these ceremonies are a major distraction. We wish we had a schedule of every pre-game ceremony in every sport because we’d bet against it every time. The home team stands on their feet for 30 to 45 minutes while the opposition is in the locker room sitting down and getting jacked up to get on the ice. Besides all that, the Habs are simply not very good. After getting whacked by the Flames and Blackhawks in back-to-back games this past week by a combined score of 11-2, Montreal responded with a 2-1 OT win over Buffalo. The shots on net in that Sabres game was 32-32 and it was the only game this year that the Sabres played and didn’t get badly outshot. We’ve been saying all year that Montreal is grossly overvalued. Of their nine wins only one was justified. When they win it’s because of Carey Price and not because they’re the better team. The Habs may win here because of the big edge they have in net but once again they’ll very likely get badly outplayed.
The Wild are the complete opposite of Montreal. They outplay every opponent and lose because they have inadequate goaltending. Against Ottawa on Thursday, Minnesota outshot the Sens 35-17 and lost 3-0. It’s been the same story for the Wild over and over this year in that they usually hold a 2/1 or 3/2 edge in shots on net and an even bigger edge in time of possession in the offensive end. Minnesota is 7-5 and if they had a quality goaltender they would have fewer losses than any team in the league. Despite the shaky goaltending we’ll continue to back the Wild at these prices, especially against weaker teams because their chances of winning are greater than their chances of losing.
N.Y. Rangers -½ +170 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The Maple Leafs went into New York on October 12th and completely annihilated a listless Rangers team, 6-3. The Maple Leafs scored five goals in the second period of that game against Queen Henrik before he was yanked in favor of Cam Talbot. Talbot came in and stopped all 12 shots he faced and the best news is that Talbot gets the call for this one. The Rangers also get the gritty and talented Derek Stepan back for this game and that’s a huge morale boost for this team. The Rangers are playing much better the past few games as well. They were the better team against St. Louis two games back but lost in OT. In a 1-0 loss to Winnipeg last Saturday, they outshot the Jets 38-25. The Rangers have picked up points in four straight and in four of their past five and we can assure you that a stronger effort against the Maple Leafs this time around is forthcoming.
Teams get jacked up to play in Toronto on Saturday night. Toronto is 1-7 in their past 8 Saturday games with only win over that span occurring against Chicago last week in a game the Leafs were outshot in 47-27. Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses to Arizona and Colorado and that’s not an easy trip. Along the way, they lost Jake Gardiner to an injury, not to mention two gritty players in Brandon Kozun and Daniel Winnick, although the latter hasn’t been ruled out yet. Aside from the Sabres, the Maple Leafs defense remains the league’s worst. They can’t move the puck out consistently and continue to cough it up in their own end when the opposition pressures them. The Leafs have not made any improvements whatsoever. They’re the same garbage team that win games when Jonathan Bernier and/or James Reimer stand on their head. They had a chance to defeat two very beatable teams in their recent two-game trip but instead picked up one lucky point when they pulled the goalie and tied it late in the third. Now they’ll return home to face an energized Rangers team that is looking better each game. The Leafs aren’t going to outplay the Rangers and they’re not going to get any softies on Talbot either. Rangers straight up in regulation is the call.
Winnipeg -½ +200 over OTTAWA
Regulation only. The Senators are the only team in the NHL without a regulation loss at home but that cannot last much longer because they are the second best team on the ice almost every game. Out of 30 teams, the Sens are 28th in time of possession in the offensive end. That puts them ahead of only Colorado and Buffalo. Shot efficiency rating measures a team’s ability to hit the net and that’s a stat that has been around since 1990. Teams’ with a low shot efficiency rating virtually have little chance of finishing high in the standings or even making the playoffs. 14 teams miss the playoffs every year. Last season the four worst teams in shot efficiency rating, Buffalo, Toronto, Edmonton and Washington all missed the playoffs and the same applied in 2012 and 2013. This year the Sens shot efficiency rating is 0.82. The league average is 1.04. The Sens rank third last in the NHL and the proof is in the pudding that their winning ways cannot continue. The Senators have been extremely fortunate but a serious regression is just around the corner.
Winnipeg is so solid throughout its entire lineup. It may surprise you to learn that Winnipeg has picked up points in seven straight with five victories and two OT losses. Three of those five victories were on the road against the Islanders, Rangers and Chicago. The Jets have also killed off 17 straight minors and that includes a perfect 5-5 against Pittsburgh on Thursday against the greatest PP that this league has seen since the Gretzky days. Pittsburgh had connected on 9 PP goals in 24 opportunities before the Jets shut them down. The Pens PP % of 36.5% is pure sickness. The Jets goals against per game of 2.07 rank them 6th in the league. Analytically speaking, the Jets rank high in several key categories and it’s also worth noting that unlike previous years, Winnipeg is playing their best hockey on the road. Andrej Pavelec had previously been a liability for the Jets. This year he’s played outstanding so far if it continues the Jets will have few flaws, as they have goal scorers, point producers and an outstanding group of blueliners. Taking back this sweet price, Winnipeg offers up way too much value to ignore.
Bruce Marshall
Idaho at San Diego State
Pick: Idaho
Rather quietly, Idaho ahs emerged as a competent poitnspread performer this seaspon, covering 6 of 8 overall and all four of its games away from the Kibbie Dome. Vandals now running the ball effectively with big RBs Jemel Brown and Elijhaa Penny and doing a better job keeping defense off the field. And Aztecs not stopping run effectively in recent games. SDSU also "O" continues to disappoint as QB Kaehler struggles, with Aztecs becoming one-dimensional behind RB Pumphrey. Hardly a recipe to lay 3 TDs.
Brandon Shively
Kansas State vs. TCU
Play: TCU -6½
I like TCU to win this game by double digits. This is the nation's most improved team in the country and they will be looking for revenge from last year's 33-31 loss to Kansas State. TCU is a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season and are 4-0 ATS at home as a favorite winning by an average of 16 points per game.
These two teams have played 3 common opponents this season (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech) and TCU has a +322 yard net advantage over these three teams. I will also note that Kansas State has played 2 ranked teams this season (Auburn and Oklahoma) and got outgained in both games. TCU quarterback Boykin is having a helluva year and has a trio of wide receivers that are all speedsters and Kansas State has not seen an offense this dynamic this year.
This is a statement game for TCU to be included in the 4 team College Football Playoff and HC Gary Anderson will run this score up if possible. He is now 0-2 vs. his Alma Mater and trust me, he wants this game bad. I am expecting TCU to pull away in this game and to win by double digits.
I will also recommend a 2 team 6 point Teaser on: (TCU -1 and Alabama -.5) that should cash in with ease this Saturday Night.