Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, November 9

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Indiana at Brooklyn
The Pacers look to follow up last night's 91-84 win over Toronto and build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing wih 0 days rest. Indiana is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3)

Game 701-702: Utah at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.191; Toronto 121.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 188
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+8); Under

Game 703-704: Orlando at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 108.732; Atlanta 119.226
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 199
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Over

Game 705-706: Indiana at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.124; Brooklyn 118.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 3; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3); Under

Game 707-708: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 110.212; Cleveland 120.303
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-7 1/2); Over

Game 709-710: Boston at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.058; Miami 127.514
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 14; 195
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+14); Under

Game 711-712: LA Clippers at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 119.241; Houston 127.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 216
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 713-714: Golden State at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.983; Memphis 127.340
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 715-716: Dallas at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.951; Milwaukee 117.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 4 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 717-718: Portland at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 110.088; Sacramento 120.786
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 10 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Over

NCAAB

College of Charleston at Louisville
The Cardinals begin defending their national title against a Cougars team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. Louisville is the pick (-22) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 24 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-22)

Game 719-720: Ball State at Indiana State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 53.627; Indiana State 60.294
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+14 1/2)

Game 721-722: College of Charleston at Louisville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 51.066; Louisville 85.395
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 22
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-22)

Game 723-724: Temple at Penn (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 65.620; Penn 51.668
Dunkel Line: Temple by 14
Vegas Line: Temple by 5
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-5)

Game 725-726: Northern Iowa at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.494; Ohio 60.652
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 1
Vegas Line: Ohio by 1
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (+1)

Game 727-728: Drake at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 59.403; Illinois-Chicago 56.646
Dunkel Line: Drake by 3
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+1 1/2)

Game 745-746: Manhattan at LaSalle (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 57.001; LaSalle 69.277
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 6
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-6)

Game 747-748: Tennessee Tech at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 47.285; South Florida 58.817
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+13 1/2)

Game 749-750: Iona at Cleveland State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 56.861; Cleveland State 54.311
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+2)

Game 751-752: Niagara at Seton Hall (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 54.715; Seton Hall 61.827
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 7
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 13
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+13)

Game 753-754: IPFW at Dayton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 53.164; Dayton 65.755
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 17
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+17)

Game 755-756: South Dakota at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 46.998; St. Bonaventure 64.652
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-10 1/2)

Game 757-758: Northern Arizona at TX-San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 41.859; TX-San Antonio 53.909
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 12
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (-7 1/2)

Game 759-760: Eastern Illinois at Northwestern (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.677; Northwestern 58.230
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+13 1/2)

Game 761-762: CS-Fullerton at Montana State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 47.775; Montana State 47.658
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Montana State by 3
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (+3)

NHL

Pittsburgh at St. Louis
The Blues look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 home games versus the Penguins. St. Louis is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135)

Game 51-52: Edmonton at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.949; Philadelphia 9.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135); Over

Game 53-54: Florida at Ottawa (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.463; Ottawa 11.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 2 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-200); Under

Game 55-56: Toronto at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.425; Boston 12.892
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-190); Under

Game 57-58: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.968; Detroit 11.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Over

Game 59-60: Minnesota at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.866; Carolina 10.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Under

Game 61-62: NY Islanders at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.541; Columbus 10.103
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110); Over

Game 63-64: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.362; St. Louis 12.848
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 65-66: Chicago at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.646; Dallas 12.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+120); Over

Game 67-68: Washington at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.478; Phoenix 13.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-150); Under

Game 69-70: Vancouver at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.040; Los Angeles 11.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+120); Over

Will Rogers

BYU vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Under

The Wisconsin Badgers moved back into the Top 25 after putting together three straight wins against Big-10 opponents. I gave out a free play on the under in last week's win at Iowa, and I'm not expecting to see a lot of points scored in Wisconsin this week with the Badgers hosting another tough defensive team in BYU.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Wisconsin Offense - The Badgers looked terrible on offense in Iowa last week, converting on just 4-of-15 3rd down situations, with Joel Stave completing 11-of-19 attempts for 144 yards and a pair of TDs.

2: Previous History - Both BYU and Wisconsin have trended toward low scoring games, with the total going under in 5-of-8 for each team. The Badgers have seen the total go under in 3-of-4 home games, with the only exception a 41-10 win over Purdue (still not enough points to go over the total for this game).

3: X-Factor - These two teams rely heavily on running the football to score points, and with both teams chewing with each offensive possession, it's going to be tough to reach the total here.

Jesse Schule

Auburn vs. Tennessee
Pick: Auburn

The Tigers have won back to back road games over SEC teams, and last week they handed the Razorbacks a 35-17 defeat in Arkansas. Auburn heads out on the road again this week to face the Vols, who are without their starting quarterback Justin Worley.

Backup Joshua Dobbs has not thrown a touchdown pass while going 31-of-54 passing in consecutive losses since coming in midway through the loss to Alabama. The Freshman was picked off twice, and coughed up a fumble in the loss to Missouri last week.

The Tigers ran all over Tennessee last week, running for 339 yards in a 31-3 victory. The Vols defense is allowing almost 30 points per game, although they have had a tough schedule, with six of their nine opponents ranked in the Top 25.

Auburn hasn't exactly been playing cupcakes en route to an 8-1 record though, with impressive wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss.

Without Worley, I really don't see the Vols competing with a tough Auburn team this week, even though the game is being playing in Knoxville. I expect to see the Tigers win by double-digits.

Freddy Wills

LSU vs. Alabama
Play: LSU +13

Alabama's schedule has not been tough and has been filled with major advantages. They had an extra week to prepare against their only challenge to date which was A&M where they barely came away with a win. Once again Alabama has an extra week to prepare for this game and of course they are at home. They will also go to Auburn to finish the season after they play Chatanooga the week before which is the same as a bye week. They have by far an easier schedule thus far compared with LSU. Their non conference games were against Virginia Tech, Colorado State and Georgia State... Give me a break. They've faced the 3 worst teams in the SEC who have a combined 1-13 conference record and haven't had to face some of the best SEC South Carolina, Missouri, Florida or Georgia.

LSU has already had to play 3 top 20 teams in Florida, Georgia and Auburn. They had 2 three point losses otherwise they would be undefeated. They are not 12.5 point under dogs they simply carry to much value in this spot. After all they too have an extra week to prepare and you could even say 3 as they played Furman on the 26th while Bama played Tennessee.

Part of the 12.5 point margin is because all of a sudden the Alabama defense looks nasty and that was supposed to be a weakness (see Texas A&M). However, a closer look reveals they have played nothing but 1 dimensional offenses and not one of those dimensions is an offense that can stretch a defense and keep them honest like LSU can. Alabama showed in the A&M game that they can give up a lot of points when you can run the ball and pass the ball down the field. When you take out the A&M game the Alabama defense has dominated, but they have not faced another opponent ranked in the top 80 in rushing yards per carry, QB rating, and yards per passing attempt.

I look at those three stats, because yards per carry prove you have an effective offensive line and talented running backs. I look at QB rating, because it shows the full picture of can your QB be efficient and not make mistakes while also making plays. I look at yards per passing attempt because it shows whether or not an offense is capable of backing a defense up. In other words can Alabama's safeties crowd the line of scrimmage all game?

The answer is absolutely not! LSU is ranked 36th in yards per carry with Jeremy Hill and Terrence Magee averaging over 7 yards per carry which is better than Alabama's duo. They are ranked 6th in QB rating as Zach Mettenberger has proven he can make plays and is finally living up to the potential under the tutelage of OC Cam Cameron. LSU is ranked 3rd in yards per passing attempt as Mettenberger has averaged 10.8 yards per attempt. He's got NFL caliber receivers running NFL caliber routes in Jarvis Landry and Odell Becham Jr. Those 3 rankings are just as good as Texas A&M and LSU has a more capable defense.

LSU's defense is down compared with prior years, but they are capable of dominating a game. LSU also holds an advantage in 3rd down offense, red zone offense and defense which are other keys in a close game. The last 6 regular season games have all been decided by single digits and this one will too. I won't be surprised if LSU is there with a shot to win in the end. If you need some trends to make you feel better at night LSU is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Alabama, and the road team is 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

Bryan Leonard

Virginia Tech +7

The Hokies entered the bye week 6-1 on the season and primed for a strong second half run. With Duke and Boston College on the horizon we are sure the team was focused on the November 9th meeting at Miami, with only Maryland and in-state rival Virginia on deck. But something happened on the way to a strong bounce back season, as the Hokies lost outright to both the Blue Devils and Eagles. Turnovers were the key in those 3 and 7 point losses as Virginia Tech had a negative 4 turnover margin in those games despite out gaining both opponents. In fact, Virginia Tech has out gained all but one opponent this season, the lone deficit coming by 35 yards to North Carolina. In last years meeting between these two the Hokies held a 421 to 347 yardage edge but a negative 3 turnover margin did them in.

Miami is coming in off a bubble burst loss to Florida State. It not only ruined their perfect season but extended their four year futility at the hands of the Seminoles. With a schedule loaded with the likes of Florida Atlantic, Savannah State, South Florida and Wake Forest, you now have to question just how good this Hurricanes team is. Against the best two teams they faced they were out gained by 201 and 242 yards respectively vs Florida and Florida State. Miami hasn't beaten the spread by more than 12 points all season (Savannah State). And have come up short to the number each of the last three weeks by a combined margin of 34 1/2 points. These two are much closer in talent than the betting line would have you believe. Let's grab this key number now because we doubt it will be available come game day.

Jason Sharpe

Michigan (-7) over Nebraska

The Michigan Wolverines were soundly beaten last weekend against their in-state rivals, the Michigan State Spartans. It was an embarrassing loss for a very proud Michigan football program that prides itself on toughness and effort. A lot of folks are now questioning if third-year head coach Brady Hoke has this program on the right path going forward. Not only is Michigan trying to atone for an ugly showing last week, they also have revenge on their minds here in this one as they were manhandled last year at Nebraska by a 23-9 score as they lost their starting quarterback and went with an overmatched backup in the contest.

Nebraska comes in off a shocking win last Saturday as the Cornhuskers somehow came up with a Hail Mary pass to win 27-24 over Northwestern. It was a season-saving grab for Nebraska, who looked like it was facing a second straight loss and their third defeat overall on the season. Something still doesn’t feel right to me with this team as they have taken advantage of a very easy schedule thus far. Look no further than the fact their wins are over Wyoming, Southern Mississippi, South Dakota State, Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, with only the Purdue victory coming away from home.

The Wolverines are a proud team and should be going all out here after last week’s poor effort. Take Michigan minus the points.

Allen Eastman

Washington (-28) over Colorado

I do not expect this game to be competitive. I can see the score of this game being somewhere around 48-10. I think this one is an absolute blowout, and I think that Washington is better than people realize. They have had a tough schedule. The Pac-12 is the best conference in the country right now, and Washington lost a few league games. But they are still fighting to get themselves into a major bowl game. Colorado is just 7-20 ATS in its last 27 Pac-12 games, and it is asking a lot for them to go to UW this week. Colorado is just 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games overall and just 16-36 ATS in its last 52 road games. Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games, and they have a far superior offense. Washington has covered four straight games in this series, and they are just too much for the Buffs.

Playersbet

Colorado State/Nevada Over 64

This Rams offense has increased drastically this year as they come into Saturdays mathcup vs Nevada averaging 33 point per game compared to last year where they were only averaging 21.2. Thats a 56% increase in PPG scored. 2 separate times this year the Rams have put up over 50 points, as they dropped 59 on UTEP and 52 on Wyoming. The Rams offense line features 4 seniors and one junior who has accounted for 139 total starts, tied for 11th in the nations. This group continues to show improvement and plays a big part in the Rams rushing offense. The Rams ground attack is averaging 187.2 yards per game, the highest total since 2003 as the green and gold scampered for 190.8 yards per game. Rams are home again this week off a 12-point loss against Boise State where CSU drowned the Broncos in the stats, winning 626-437. This game sets up nicely for Jim McElwain’s improved rushing offense (187.2 YPG on the ground), which has pounded out over 220 yards in their last three contests. Contrast that with the soft rushing defense of the Wolfpack (allowing nearly 258 YPG, ranked 3rd-to-last in the nation), and sophomore Kapri Bibbs should be in for a big day. Nevada will be hard-pressed to slow hot QB Grayson and percolating CSU “O” (41 ppg last five). We have this game hitting 70+ as both teams should be able to put up 30+ points.

Stephen Nover

West Virginia vs. Texas
Play: Texas -6

I don't think West Virginia is that good this season, while Texas is coming on spurred by dreams of capturing the Big 12 championship. The Longhorns have scored at 31 points in each of their last five games, all victories. During this span, Texas dealt TCU its worst home loss in 16 years and held Oklahoma to 20 points and 263 yards. The change in defensive coordinators from Manny Diaz to Greg Robinson is paying off. The Longhorns allowed an average of 28.4 points and 464 yards during their first five games. In their last three games, the Longhorns have surrendered 20, 7 and 13 points and 263, 246 and 306 yards. West Virginia has allowed an average of 43 points during its past four games. The Mountaineers rank 102nd in total defense yielding an average of 453 yards a game. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 4-14 ATS versus foes with winning road records. Texas has been pointing to this game, too, since a 48-45 loss last season to the Mountaineers.

Marc Lawrence

Nebraska vs. Michigan
Pick: Nebraska

The bipolar Huskers dress up as dogs for the first time this season, with the feeling here is Bo Pelini would likely have been hitting up brother Carl for some of his stash had the Huskers not connected on a 49-yard Hail Mary pass to turn a loss into a win over Northwestern last Saturday. Certainly some sort of pain reliever is in order as Pelini’s butt has been blistered by the hot seat he’s been living on this season. On the positive side, though, Pelini is 23-4 SU versus a foe that allows more than 23.5 PPG on the season, with only two losses by more than 6 points. Last week, DC Pat Narduzzi’s Michigan State defense absolutely stifled Devin Gardner and the Wolverines, sacking No. 98 seven times and if you subtracted the sacks from Michigan’s rushing total, they gained one yard on 22 carries… that’s right, one yard against that rock-ribbed Spartan defense. Just as scary is Michigan’s performance in games after getting smacked around by the Spartans: 0-7 ATS at home after playing MSU and facing an opponent with a .500 or better win percentage. Finally, the Wolves’ rotten record in games when seeking conference revenge (5-13 SU and 1-16-1 ATS) has us buttering up the Corn. We recommend a 1-unit play on Nebraska.

Teddy Covers

Mississippi St vs. Texas A&M
Pick: Over

The Aggies have scored at least 41 points in every game, including their matchup against Alabama’s elite defense. Let’s not forget that the Crimson Tide gave up 42 points and 628 yards of total offense against the Aggies, but only 26 points in SIX games since that shootout.

Mississippi State isn’t any more likely to shut down Johnny Manziel than any of the other SEC defenses that Texas A&M has shredded in recent weeks. The last two good offenses the Bulldogs have faced – South Carolina and LSU – combined to score 83 points against Dan Mullen’s defense.

Don’t be fooled by the 38-13 final score when these two teams met last year. Texas A&M punted once in that game, finishing with 332 passing yards and 361 rushing yards, moving the ball at will against the Bulldogs stop unit.

The only question here is whether Mississippi State can put touchdowns on the board. Texas A&M has put up solid defensive numbers in recent weeks, while the Bulldogs offense has been rather limited. Again, don’t be fooled. The Aggies have faced weak UTEP and Vanderbilt (with a frosh QB making his first start) offenses in their last two games. They allowed 33+ in all four other SEC games this season; unable to generate stops on any sort of a consistent basis.

Meanwhile Mississippi St ha averaged 32 points per game since getting shut down by Oklahoma State in their opener. Whether Zak Prescott or Tyler Russell starts at QB this week; the Aggies defense can’t be trusted to deliver a shutdown performance. And if Prescott plays, watch out – his mom passed away earlier this week, and he’s capable of delivering an inspired performance against this caliber of defense.

John Ryan

Missouri at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky

The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Missouri has had a very strong season with just one loss. Many games were decided and opponents had to rely nearly exclusively on the pass to make at least an attempt at a comeback. However, the Tiger secondary is not an elite one and is subject to allowing multiple completions that move the chains. They rank 112th in the nation allowing opponents to complete 62.71% of their pass attempts. Kentucky ash nearly always competed well against these types of defenses noting they are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when facing awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse since 1992. The unit ranks 81st allowing opponents to score 85% of the time in the red zone. Kentucky has had struggles on offense, but they rank third best averaging 0.9 turnovers per game. To compete against Missouri, any team must take care of the ball first and foremost. Missouri lost two weeks ago to South Carolina in OT and in a game they led 24-0 in the fourth quarter. So, although they lead the SEC East standings by one game and know if they defeat Mississippi and then Texas A&M they will be playing in the SEC Championship game, they are very prone to a complete letdown in this matchup. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MISSOURI) that are excellent rushing teams gaining >=230 RYPG and are facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 190 and 230 RYPG. Kentucky is a solid 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. Take Kentucky.

Sam Martin

Florida St at Wake Forest
Prediction: Wake Forest

Florida State coming off a pair of wins the last few weeks that has solidified their top-two ranking and on a path to the National Championship Game. Wins against Miami FL and Clemson has solidified FSU's high ranking, but along with that comes high expectations and even bigger pointspreads to cover.

This is a great "play-against" spot on the Seminoles, coming off that big win against Miami and in an obvious letdown spot this week, and even better it comes against an underrated Wake Forest team that already proved their worth in a near upset-win against the Hurricanes.

WF only giving up 13 ppg at home, and while it's ridiculous to believe they'll shut down Florida State completely, they can at least hold the Seminoles scoring down enough to cover this huge number.

Jimmy Boyd

Penn State +2½

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the most overrated teams in the Big Ten. What we thought were impressive wins over Northwestern and Nebraska have become less and less impressive with each passing week. They don't have a quality win on the season, and I think Penn State has a great chance to win what should be a very close game this week.

The Nittany Lions are a very run-biased team averaging 42 attempts per game out of their 79 offensive plays. That is a big matchup advantage against this Gophers team that has given up 149 rushing yards per game at home on 4.8 yards per carry. The Gophers defense has allowed 24.9 points per game overall, and they could be in for another long day against Penn State.