Kyle Hunter
Houston vs. Central Florida
Play: Over 64
The Houston Cougars and UCF Knights both come into this game with only one loss on the year. UCF beat Louisville on the road for a huge win, while Houston has yet to pick up a big win. These two things have a lot in common. Notably, both of these teams can really air it out. Both of these defenses are suspect as well. 64 points isn't all that many when you get two very good quarterbacks up against defenses that can't bring the heat very well at all. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
Tom Stryker
USC vs. California
Play: USC -15½
Southern Cal is starting to make some progress under interim head coach Ed Orgeron and the Trojans should be able to dominate this soft California team based on the strength of their defense alone.
So far this season, the Men of Troy have held six of their nine opponents to 300 total yards or less. USC is ranked 12th in total defense allowing an average of 323.6 yards per game and 13th in scoring surrendering an average of just 18.7 points per game. California's one-dimensional attack will be in serious trouble in this Pac 12 battle. The Golden Bears are a sound passing team averaging 351.1 yards per game through the air. But, Cal can't run (avg 111.8 ypg) and that dismal ground attack will cost them dearly against USC's top-ranked "D".
The history book sides with the Trojans too. Southern Cal is a reliable 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 meetings with California including a nearly perfect 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six visits to Berkeley. Also, at home, the Golden Bears have been in hibernation notching a soft 7-14 SU and 6-12 ATS record in their last 21 games including 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in this spot priced as an underdog.
USC quarterback Cody Kessler, running back Silas Redd and WR Marqise Lee are starting to find their rhythm on offense. Matched up against a Cal defense that has been pounded for an average of 42.8 points and 529.8 yards per game, the Men of Troy will be able to do anything they want when they have the football. Lay the lumber. Take USC.
Jack Jones
BYU +7½
The Cougars are a completely different team in 2013. They are led by a hurry-up offense that has given opposing defenses fits with their pace. They have managed to open 6-2 with impressive wins over the likes of Texas (40-21), Utah State (31-14), Georgia Tech (38-20), Houston (47-46) and Boise State (37-20). Their two losses came by a combined 10 points early in the season, and they have reeled off five straight victories since while scoring at least 31 points in each.
BYU is putting up 32.4 points and 511.2 yards per game to rank 13th in the country in total offense. That 511-yard output becomes so much more impressive when you consider that the eight teams BYU have faced only allow an average of 398 yards per game defensively. They are outgaining that average by roughly 113 total yards.
Taysom Hill has put up Heisman Trophy-caliber numbers to this point. He has thrown for 2,019 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for a team-high 841 yards and eight scores. Hill has been running the no-huddle offense to perfection in recent weeks. Now, the Cougars will have had two weeks to prepare for Wisconsin having last played on October 26, which will be a big advantage because the Badgers played last Saturday on November 2.
While BYU is giving up 382.6 yards per game to rank 51st in the country in total defense, a closer look into the numbers shows that the Cougars are every bit as good as the Badgers defensively. BYU is allowing roughly 383 yards per game against teams that average 435 yards per game. Wisconsin is giving up 286 yards per game against teams that average 362 yards per game.
So, as you can see, the Cougars have played much better offensive teams to this point. They are only giving up 145.3 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry despite facing mostly run-first teams to this point. Their eight opponents have averaged 202 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the year, so they’re holding them roughly 57 yards and 1.0/carry below their season averages.
Plays on a road team (BYU) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season. BYU is 8-0 against the spread when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60-75% over the last three seasons. The Cougars are a perfect 9-0 against the number as an underdog over the last three seasons. Bet BYU Saturday.
Chip Chirimbes
Missouri vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky +14
Missouri is in position to reach the SEC Championship game if the can win their final three games and this is the weakest of their opponents. After Kentucky they will face Mississippi and Texas A&M. The Wildcats shouldn't present too many problems as they haven't won a conference SEC game since the 2011 season. Kentucky has played tough against South Carolina and Mississippi State and the major obstacle for the Tigers is if they get caught looking ahead and that just might happen here. With the home field and points I can see the Wildcats keeping this close. Take Kentucky!
Dave Price
BYU +8
BYU isn't getting the respect it deserves from odds makers. The Cougars, who haven't lost by more than seven points this season, have rattled off five consecutive victories. BYU has impressive wins over Texas, Utah State, Georgia Tech, Houston and Boise State. Wisconsin has played a relatively soft schedule, and it lost its two toughest contests (Arizona State, Ohio State). Wisconsin's statistics are skewed because of the schedule they have played. The Badgers rank sixth in the country in total defense despite giving up 468 yards to Arizona State and 390 yards to the Buckeyes. This just goes to show you how weak the rest of their schedule has been. Wisconsin will undoubtedly have a tough time slowing down a balanced BYU offense that averages 511.2 yards per game. BYU has been up to the challenge against quality competition, going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games versus teams carrying winning percentages of 60-75%. The Cougars have also been a terrific underdog investment at 9-0 ATS in their last nine in the role. They are even 6-0 ATS in their last six as a road dog, winning these by an average score of 24.3 to 16.7. Take the points.
Lee Williams
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Kansas State +3
These 2 teams are fairly equal talent wise and after running off 7 straight wins Tech is suddenly off losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma.St. KSU losses have been to quality opposition and they played close in those games, including Baylor.We feel KSU and points is solid value.
Steve Janus
Florida Gators -10
Without starting quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels the Commodores managed to score just 24-points last week against a Texas A&M defense that had allowed at least 33 points in each of their previous four SEC games. That includes 33-points against an Arkansas team that has scored a combined 34 points in their other four conference games. I have a hard time seeing Vanderbilt scoring enough to cover this double-digit spread on the road against the Gators. Florida is limited offensively, but their defense ranks 8th in the country, giving up just 290.7 ypg. Gators should have excellent field position on most drives and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the defense didn't help the offense out with a couple of big turnovers.
Florida was a 9.5-point favorite at Vanderbilt last year and went on to win 31-17. Now we get them at basically the same line at home and in desperate need of a win. At 4-4, the Gators need to win two of their final four games to become bowl eligible. With a road game at South Carolina and home game against Florida State left on the schedule, this game becomes one Florida absolutely has to have.
Bill Biles
Penn State vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2½
Minnesota plays better at home, and Penn State struggles on the road. Minnesota will force a couple of turnovers, and they will capitalize on them. Minnesota will use their balanced attack to keep the mediocre Penn State defense from getting off the field.
Alex Smart
SMU vs. Cincinnati
Play: Over 63½
SMUs QB Garret Gilbert leads nation in total offense at 408 yards per game and is third in passing yards at 393. He is averaging 501 yards of total offense over past three games. The Mustangs passing offense, is ranked fifth nationally at 381 yards per game. Im betting Cincinnatis viable secondary has its hand full this week. On the flip side, SMUs defense is miserable and porous (allowing 42 ppg) and the Bearcats are the kind of team that have the offensive weapons to pound pourous stop units mercilessly as they are averaging 34 PPG. This has the making of a track meet!
Brandon Shively
Arizona State vs. Utah
Play: Utah +7
Arizona State comes into this game this afternoon in a tough spot as they have double revenge games on deck vs. Oregon St and UCLA and considering that Utah has some revenge on their mind as well from last year's 37-7 to Arizona State. Since joining the Pac 12, Utah has lost both matchups to Arizona State so this makes it a double revenge game and one the seniors will be hungry for. Utah has their best offense now since joining the Pac 12 and should be nice and refreshed coming off a week of rest. Utah already beat Stanford at home and lost to UCLA by only 7 but because of 6 interceptions by quarterback Wilson or they would have won that game also.
Arizona State has a 3-14 ATS mark in the 2nd of B2B road games and if you match that with Utah's 12-4-1 ATS mark as a home dog of 7 or more points, this game has upset written all over it. Also note that Co-OC for Utah is former Arizona St HC Dennis Erickson and given the Utes an extra week to prepare, I feel Erickson has an advantage tonight.
On defense I like the Utah defense also. I saw them slow down UCLA and Stanford and have no doubt they will do it again tonight. Historically, Utah is tough to beat at home, and the trends suppoer it.
• Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Utes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye week.
Factor that in with the mysterious struggles that Arizona State has on field turf (1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games) and this is a live home dog that will be bringing home the bacon this afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -2½
This game is a battle of 2 pathetic Mac conference schools who both play little or no defense. In game 10 when we have two teams that have one exact win and one of the teams is off a win that team has lost just one to the spread long term. The Visitor in this series has covered 8 of 11. Eastern Michigan has the 3rd worst defense in the country and Western Michigan has double revenge Western Michigan has been more competitive and did emerge with a road dog win in their last game. Today they make the short trip into Eastern Michigan to take on an Eagles squad that has allowed 42+ points in 6 straight games. Perhaps the biggest reason we will Play Against Eastern Michigan is due to the Power angle Below that shows Eastern Michigan as a terrible 1-18 straight up and to the spread at home off a road loss. Look for Western Michigan to take this one.
Eddie J
Vanderbilt vs Florida
Pick: Florida
The Gators look to avoid a 4 game losing streak vs Vandy. Vandy may be the right opponenet as the Gators play at the swamp for the first time since Oct.5. Florida has beat Vandy 22 straight and 17 straight at home. The L 10 meetings Florida has won by 18.7 PPG. In the 3 games at the swamp this year Florida has won by 17 PPG. With a backup QB for Vandy vs a vaunted Defense it's a perfect storm to take the Gators.
Jim Feist
Iowa vs Purdue
Pick: Iowa
The Iowa Hawkeyes (5-4 SU/5-4 ATS) have been playing well, on a 5-2 ATS run. They've hit a rough patch the last month because the schedule has been brutal, but now they face a cupcake team and need one more win to clinch a bowl. The offense is balanced, with a strong ground attack and the defense has been great allowing 19 ppg (17th in the nation). They face a bad Purdue team this week and the Hawkeyes are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a S.U. loss. They face a punchless Purdue squad that is 1-4 at home, averaging 11.5 ppg for the year on offense while allowing 37.1 ppg! The Boilermakers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Their only win was against Indiana State (20-14) as a 17.5 favorite! Their two QBs have combined for 7 TDs, 11 INTs and they've been outscore 70-0 the last two games!
AC Dinero
Utah State vs. UNLV
Play: UNLV +16
This is more of a play against Utah St than it is on UNLV. Even though Utah St has the edge in just about all statistical categories, that was with their starting QB. But he is out for the year, so I am skeptical about this team laying 2 TD's on the road to a team having a decent season, warts and all, particularly in stopping the run. However, this team has a chance to make a bowl game behind a solid running game (4.5 ypc) and a pretty good pass defense that gives up just 6.4 ypc in the pass happy MWC. Look for the Runnin Rebels to hang tough in this game.
Tony Karpinski
Virginia Tech vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida -6.5
This week’s free pick is Miami over Virginia Tech as they win by 10 points or more I predict. Virginia Tech comes in as the typical middling team struggling to keep their head above waters, but not bad enough to be drowning, in the tough ACC. Virginia Tech doesn’t move the ball in the air well at all, which is a massive concern. They are as well very turnover prone. Virginia Tech does base its team off of a solid defense; and they don’t allow a lot of big plays. Miami comes in typically lighting up teams for 36/game, ought to likely do the same against Virginia Tech. Power running is key for Miami as well with big runs and with TD vulture Dallas Crawford. Miami will definitely want to make a case after last week’s humiliating blowout loss to FSU, 41-14. Tight game, Tech will play tough, but Miami closely clears the numbers. Va. Tech is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.