Joe Gavazzi
North Carolina St. at Duke
Play: Duke 9
First year NC St. HC Doeren, former HC at N. Illinois, is not used to these kinds of struggles. While his former team is again averaging over 44 PPG with an all-league QB, Doeren’s new team the Wolfpack, is struggling at 23 PPG with ample problems at the signal caller position. Last week, NC St. blew a 10-0 lead against rival NC in an eventual 27-19 loss. As a result, it is quite unusual to see a 3-5 SU ATS Wolfpack on a 4 game losing streak, looking up in the standings at 6-2 SU ATS Duke who is on a 4 game winning streak. The Blue Devils last victory clinched a Bowl invitation with a 13-10 win at VA Tech. With 2 weeks to rest, Duke is plenty pumped to break a 6 game series stranglehold by State and extend their record of 6-1 ATS as home chalk.
Red Dog Sports
Philadelphia vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 203½
Take the under as these two played last night and scored only 173 points. I expect them to play another low scoring game on Saturday night going back to back with tired legs after traveling from Philadelphia to Cleveland.
Dave Essler
Virginia Tech +7
There's plenty of "7"'s still out there, or buy the hook. Miami didn't just lose to FSU, they were physically abused. The Hokies are not the team you want next, not when they're an upset team after having lost two straight. I remember well how badly the 'Canes struggled to move the ball against Florida, escaping with a win because of the Gators' ineptness. Without their star RB Miami is more than likely going to have to rely more on Morris, and against the VT defense that's going to be a problem. In a game that may not see many points, there's huge value to touchdown here. Plus, there's payback from an 18 point loss to the 'Canes last season. VT still has a shot at the ACC Coastal if they win this game, and this is simply nothing more than a last possession FG game, IMO.
Charlie Scott
BYU vs. Wisconsin
Play: BYU +8.5
BYU has the defense and playmakers on offense to matchup physically with Wisconsin and won't be pushed around by Wisconsin. BYU is a rare Independent which basically means the Mormons get to keep all the money they make and don't have to share their revenue with other Conference Schools. Meanwhile Wisconsin is headed down the stretch of another Big 10 Regular season. Some key starters suffered injuries for Wisconsin last week vs Iowa. In the middle of Big 10 Regular season, I just can't see Wisconsin being fired up and concerned about covering this spread. While for the Mormons this constitutes a Big game.
Bruce Marshall
BYU vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Over
Since a pair of losses in September, Bronco Mendenhall has opened up the BYU offense for multi-dimensional soph QB Taysom Hill, with some very positive results. Bottom line is that Cougar offense now running off plays in a hurry...more possessions and more snaps can now be expected in BYU games. This one will thus bear little resemblance to the last time Mendenhall and Gary Andersen-coached teams faced off when the latter was still at Utah State a year ago (6-3 Cougar win).
Harry Bondi
MISSOURI (-13.5) over Kentucky
We used Missouri (-10) over Tennessee, 31-3, last week as our 10-Star “Lock of the Year” and we’ll go back to well with them again here. Kentucky is a very disappointing 2-6 overall and 0-4 in the SEC and has packed it in for the season. Meanwhile, the surging Tigers still have a shot at an SEC title so they won’t be looking past this game. The one chink in Missouri’s armor this year is its pass defense, but Kentucky won’t be able to take full advantage since two of its best receivers will be on the sidelines for this game. Kentucky has always struggled vs. mobile QBs and no matter who starts behind center for Missouri – either James Franklin or Maty Mauck – the Wildcats will have to deal with a multiple-threat quarterback. Missouri is averaging 45 points per game on the road, where it is 3-0 ATS this season, while Kentucky is just 7-15 ATS as a dog, including 1-11 ATS when catching double digits. Rout!
Charlie Sports
BYU +9
The 6-2 BYU Cougars who are independent will take on the 6-2 Wisconsin Badgers of the Big Ten Leaders division in 2013 NCAA Football action. BYU has won their last 5 straight up and are 4-1 Against The Spread their last 5 NCAA Football games. Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS their last 8 overall. The Badgers are 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 vs. A team with a winning record. BYU gets the road cover.
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati -7
SMU lost a lot of starters from last year and I think they have done a pretty good job. Cincinnati has a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and I don't want to say they are hot dogging it, but they have not played up to their potential this year. SMU has a pretty lousy defense so I expect Cincinnati to put up a lot of points at home today. Take Cincinnati.
Wunderdog
UAB at Marshall
Pick:Marshall -24
Outside of lopsided losses to LSU and Vanderbilt - both of the SEC, the UAB Blazers have played a rather light schedule. The problem is that they have gone 2-6 on the season, with just one of the wins was vs. FBS competition. That win came at the expense of Florida International who is 1-7 on the season, and it was by a meager 3 points. This team is 3 points away from being winless against FBS competition. Despite the rather cupcake-laden schedule, UAB has allowed 24 or more points to every team they have faced, so Marshall should get a lot of opportunities here. The Herd have been scoring at a high rate lately, averaging 55 points per game in their last two. And, they have gone for 49 or more points four times on the season and they should be able to add one to that. The Blazers have failed to cover each of their last four on the road, while the Herd is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four at home. Lay the bundle, and play on Marshall.
Arkansas Gambler
Iowa St +7.5
The Horned Frogs of Texas Christian are in a tight spot needed to win their last 3 games to be bowl eligible once again for head coach Gary Patterson. Meanwhile, Iowa State is playing for pride and pride alone with a nasty 1-7 record. Here is why I’m backing the Cyclones in this game. They are one of those teams that isn’t very good, but they go all out in front of the home crowd. Against two pass heavy teams Texas and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones only allowed 244 yards and 78, respectively. TCU is dealing with the drama of players leaving the team for personal reasons, returning, then others leaving. Their top defensive player, and one of the best in nation, cornerback Jason Verrett is expected to be banged up and may miss this game. Iowa State comes home for only the 2nd time in 5 weeks, and they welcome it. TCU is 7-17 ATS as a favorite the last 3 years, including 1-5 ATS this season. I do expect TCU to squeak it out, but not without a scare.
Arizona -1.5
I LOVE this pick, and hate we missed out on the pick em’ earlier in the week, but I still see major value here. This is a major revenge game for the Arizona Wildcats after getting embarrassed in Los Angeles, 66-10 last year. Arizona are winners of three-straight games and come into this home game with a lot of momentum. Running back Ka’Deem Carey has already exceeded 1,000 yards on the ground with 10 touchdowns through only seven games! UCLA is giving up almost four yards per rush, and ranks 73rd in the nation in rush defense. The Bruins are banged up injury wise after facing Stanford, then Oregon, before taking on Colorado. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in last 6 of this series, while the home teams has covering 8 of the last 10 in this series. I like the Wildcats.
Auburn -7
Let’s be honest, this game is going to be a blowout! Tennessee has played teams very tough at home this season, but neither South Carolina nor Georgia have this hurry-up style office that Auburn is bringing in. The closest thing the Vols have faced to this would be Oregon early on in the season, which trounced Tennessee 59-14. Tennessee is starting a freshman QB for the second-game and he showed no confidence last week against Missouri. Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn has this team focused as they have gone into Texas A&M and Arkansas to pull outright wins, and covers. In fact, the Tigers have covered six-straight games. I don’t know how the spread is under 10 or more points, but I’ll take it. This game may be close early on, but much like the Missouri game, the Volunteers won’t be able to keep up with Auburn’s scoring. To be safe, if your book has -7.5, I would buy down.
Scott Gramling
Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -3
Only once in the past eight meetings between these schools has the home team come away with an ATS victory. Notre Dame is 3-1 both SU and ATS at Pittsburgh during that span, and the Panthers come into this game with just one SU win and one ATS win since the end of September. The Irish, meanwhile, enter this game having scored 37 or more points in three of their past four games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the past three seasons, and there’s little reason to believe that Notre Dame won’t surpass that plateau with relative ease. This has all the makings of a double-digit win for the Irish.
Chase Diamond
Wake Forest vs. Florida State
Play: Wake Forest +35
This game features the 8-0 FSU at the 4-5 Wake Forest. Wake has really played up to it's opponents this season. And as all of my clients know we have backed FSU a lot this season but today early we will be riding on the other side. Wake has a tough Defense that's ranked 20th in the nation overall and check this out FSU is just 4-13 ATS in it's last 17 road games coming off three straight conference rival wins. Wake is 10-4 ATS following a loss and with the public is heavy on FSU I love our gift of 35 points here.
DAVE COKIN
PENN STATE VS MINNESOTA
PLAY: MINNESOTA -2.5
Prior to start of the season, the LVH conducted a seminar that tied in with their NFL contest. I was part of the college panel and one of the questions we were asked was to provide one team that would not live up to billing and might be a good squad to look to fade. My option was Penn State, and as of right now that looks it might have been a good choice.
This was a team that thrived in 2012 with an us against the world mentality. They didn’t just play with a chip on their collective shoulders, that was a boulder. But the thought was that the emotional edge would ebb this season, and that reality would begin to set in. I think that’s precisely what has happened, and the result is that Penn State is really not a particularly good football team.
The wins for the Nittany Lions have come against Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Michigan and Illinois. The Wolverines are the only above average entry in that group, and they’re not exactly looking like world beaters themselves. The losses have been on the ugly side. They scored late to make it close against UCF, got demolished at Indiana and the loss at Ohio State was humbling.
I found the Penn State win against Illinois last week totally unimpressive. That’s a bad opponent, and yet after getting up 14-0 they needed a last minute field goal just to force overtime. Coming out of the humiliation at Columbus, this was a spot where Penn State needed to show something. Instead they were unfocused, taking a load of dumb penalties all day long and barely escaped what would have been a really horrible loss.
Minnesota is heading in the other direction. The Gophers have won three straight and what’s most impressive has been their mental toughness. This is a team that still has plenty of flaws but quitting is absolutely not one of them. They really seem like a team that’s committed to getting it done for their sidelined coach, with Jerry Kill now relegated to observing the games rather than coaching them as he deals with his illness. The Gophers have a refuse to lose mindset these days, and I’d rather not get in the way of a team in that state.
From a statistical standpoint, this isn’t bad. Minnesota wants to run the football, and the Nittany Lions are surrendering 199 yards per game in conference play. Penn State’s rushing stats on the road are awful, with the current ratio an ugly 82/210. Pair that with Minnesota’s 218/149 at home and there would seem to be a clear cut edge for the Gophers. This game power rates roughly even. Two of my three key sets favor Minnesota, one favors Penn State.
My main focus here is more on the current form than anything else. There’s no close call on that count as even off a win, Penn State is reeling, while the Gophers continue to surge. Momentum can be very fickle as just one crazy play can turn the ride in an instant. But I’m seeing substantial reasons to fade the guest and back the host, so I’m laying the small number with Minnesota today.
Larry Ness
UCLA at Arizona Wildcats
Play: Arizona Wildcats
Arizona and UCLA (along with USC) are all 3-2 in the Pac 12 South, trailing 4-1 ASU. The Bruins visit Tucson on Saturday night to take on the Wildcats and the loser is all but out of the race for a spot in the Pac 12 championship game. UCLA held Ka’Deem Carey to a season-low 54 rushing yards in last season’s 66-10 victory, lifting the Bruins into the top-25 with four regular-season contests remaining. That also marked the last time Carey has been held to double digits in rushing, as he’s topped 100 yards in each of his last 11 games (he sat out Arizona’s first game TY, serving a suspension).
UCLA is hoping to get a repeat performance from QB Brett Hundley, who bounced back from two sub-par road games against No. 6 Stanford and No. 2 Oregon to throw for 273 yards and two TDs in last week’s 45-23 victory against visiting Colorado. Hundley should be confident against the Arizona defense, as last year he completed 23 of 28 passes for 288 yards with three TDs and no INTs vs the Wildcats. The Bruins’ return to prominence under Jim Mora Jr has been impressive but while road losses at Stanford and Oregon were expected, the fact that UCLA was outgained by a combined 425 total yards, is troubling.
Note that even in UCLA’s 22-point win over Colorado (a non-cover), the Bruins only outgained the Buffaloes by 31 yards. Now they hit the road again against a team out for some serious revenge, after losing by 56 points in the Rose Bowl last season. This marks Arizona’s first of THREE straight home games, before ending the season with a trip to Tempe, to take on the Sun Devils. The home team is on an outstanding 9-1 ATS run in this series and I WON’T buck that trend!
SPORTS WAGERS
TENNESSEE +7½ over Auburn
What we have here is another ranked opponent on the road spotting more than a converted TD in a difficult spot. The Tigers come into this week ranked #9 in the country and anytime you have a top-10 team playing a .500 team like Tennessee, you will pay a premium to wager on them. That’s something we rarely recommend. Since losing to LSU by 14 points in Week 4, Auburn hasn’t lost since to run its record to 9-1. Throw in a pair of wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M and it’s easy to see the appeal in them against a .500 Tennessee squad. However, the Tigers will play its third road game in four weeks, with the other two (A&M and Arkansas) being emotionally draining. Furthermore, the Tigers close out the season with games against Georgia and Alabama, making this a true trap game.
The Vols are just 4-4 but they have without question played the toughest schedule in the country. Tennessee has already played then #2 Oregon, then #19 Florida, then #6 Georgia, #12 South Carolina and #9 Missouri. The Vols have played just three unranked opponents this season and defeated them all by 45, 32 and 7 points respectively. As a result of that tough schedule, Tennessee’s stats are skewed the wrong way and that has created some nice value on this host for the remainder of the schedule. The Vols are moving in the right direction. They are a tough out in good situations at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee is a physical outfit that will not back down against anyone. The Vols already have a notable win over South Carolina and they figure to be able to move the ball on the ground against a rather soft Auburn defense. When we play a dog of less than 13 points in college football, we usually give them a big chance to win outright. That applies here too. Take the points but don’t be afraid to play a little on the Vols straight up either. They can win this one.
WYOMING +9 over Fresno State
One of our favorite angles down the stretch is to play an unranked home team against a ranked visitor that has a bunch of skewed numbers on its side. Fresno State is ranked 16th in the nation with an 8-0 record and every week it seems like they are putting up ridiculous offensive numbers. However, when we look at the Bulldogs opponents we see a straight line of marshmallow after marshmallow. Against the best of the bad, FSU defeated Boise State by 1, Rutgers by 1 in OT and San Diego State by 7, also in OT. The Bulldogs narrowly escaped a trip to Hawaii also. In reality, this falsely ranked guest (no way are they a top 25 outfit) could just as easily be 4-4 instead of 8-0. The Bulldogs have played just three road games this season. They destroyed the 1-8 Idaho Vandals (everyone destroys Idaho) and in their other two road games they narrowly got by Hawaii and San Diego State. The Bulldogs failed to win by this margin in those latter two road games and chances are they won’t win by double digits here either.
Wyoming’s schedule isn’t going to give them more credibility than the Bulldogs but the Cowboys have put up almost identical offensive numbers as their ranked opponent today. The difference is that Wyoming is 4-4 and has not had every bounce go its way like FSU has. Certainly the Cowboys could have defeated both Nebraska and San Diego State and have a record of 6-2 instead of 4-4. With some better defense, the Cowboys could give a lot of teams fits and they addressed that during their bye week. Wyoming changed defensive coordinators and it also hired former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Bill Young as a consultant. The coaching change and open date will change things up for the Cowboys, giving Fresno some new looks that haven't appeared on film. Upset possibility.
Vanderbilt +10½ over FLORIDA
The Gators continue to regress with an offense that can’t keep their defense off the field. Florida rarely breaks the 21-point plateau and when you’re laying 10½ points with a team that can’t score 20, the risk is too great. The thinking here for many is that the Commodores will have trouble scoring but that may not be the case. Indeed, Florida’s defense is capable of holding Vandy to a low total but after nine weeks, Florida’s defense has been wearing down due to all the time they’ve spent on the field. Over the past two games, Florida’s defense has allowed 59 points and over 900 yards of total offense.
The Commodores have dealt with a lot of turmoil this season and it has caused many distractions but they’ve played some tough teams, they defeated Georgia two weeks ago and they lost by just 10 points to South Carolina earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that although they allowed 35 points to the Gamecocks, they were able to score 25 of their own. The Commodores lowest point total this season is 24 points and we’re not asking them to duplicate that here. To cover this ridiculous number, Vandy needs to score between 13 and 20 points. Should they play true to form and score at least 3 TD’s, it’s an easy cover. It’s rarely a good idea to spot double digits in-conference with a team whose arrow is pointing in the wrong direction. The Gators humdrum offense doesn’t make it any more appealing either.