Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 1

MLB

Arizona at Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks look to open the series and build on their 11-2 record in Ian Kennedy's last 13 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120)

Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.135; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Philadelphia (5:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.288; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-210); Over

Game 959-960: Tampa Bay at Texas (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.562; Texas (Holland) 16.160
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at Calgary
The Roughriders look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home. Saskatchewan is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2)

Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 111.099; Calgary 115.423
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+5 1/2); Over

Game 297-298: Hamilton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 111.917; Toronto 106.904
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-3 1/2); Under

Ben Burns

Hawaii @ Louisiana Tech
PICK: Louisiana Tech -3

I've successfully played against Hawaii in both its road games. While they won a home game (Cal Davis) last week, the Warriors previously lost 40-32 at Washington and 40-20 at UNLV. The Bulldogs are off back to back SU losses but played well and covered the spread in each. (*Note that they're 7-1 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off back to back losses.) They lost by one vs. Houston and six at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs beat Hawaii 27-6 in the last meeting here and I feel they should be able to do it again on Saturday. If you can get the line at -3, consider a play on LA Tech.

Matt Fargo

San Jose St. @ Colorado St.
PICK: Colorado St. -3

Colorado St. has a lot of momentum heading into this week as it had a huge come-from-behind win over Utah St. that was eventually won in overtime. The win pushed the Rams to 3-1 on the season and while the wins have been far from dominating, they will not need a dominating effort here against San Jose St. Colorado St. has been outgained in all three of its games against FBS opponents but they won two of those games outright and all three of those happened to come away from home.

The Spartans won their first game of the season against lowly New Mexico St. which ended a 13-game losing streak but that is where it ends. It was the first time in four games that San Jose St. won the yardage battle but it wasn't by much as it outgained the Aggies by just 43 total yards. They allowed New Mexico St. its largest output on offense this season and while the Spartans also had their biggest offensive output of the season, things will get a lot tougher here.

The Rams have had difficulties in moving the ball as they are 104th in the country in total offense and 86th in scoring offense but San Jose St. checks in at 95th in the nation in scoring defense so something will have to give and our edge gives it to the offense. This is the first in the four years that heads coach Steve Fairchild has had a quarterback returning and Pete Thomas is a good one. He set records as a freshman last season and while his efficiency is down, facing the Spartans at home should be the cure.

The most important thing that came out of the win over Utah St. for the Rams is that their confidence continues to grow. They have already matched their win total from each of the last two seasons and the goals keep getting bigger. They were able to spoil homecoming in Logan for the Aggies and now they have their own homecoming this week. Confidence may becoming out of San Jose St, as well but it remains one of the worst teams in the nation and the value is clearly on the home side here.

Hitting the road is not ideal for the Spartans as they have dropped 16 straight road games and not many have been close. Only two of those 16 games were decided by single digits and the average scoring margin is 27.9 ppg. To no surprise, they are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Colorado St. covered both games as a home favorite last season and the Rams have covered five of their last seven games against the WAC. 3* Colorado St. Rams

Tony Stoffo

Washington vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7.5

Sharp opening money, injuries, and trends all point towards a double digit Utah win in this spot. Situational trend hitting at an 85% clip: Play against - Road underdogs (Washington) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 35 or more points. UTAH is 10-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog. UTAH is 26-11 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

Bettorsworld

3* Michigan State +3

To sum up the play, this is a now or never game for Michigan State and Kirk Cousins. Ohio State has dominated the series winning 7 straight, though the last time they played was 2008. But let's face it, this isn't the same Ohio State team we've seen in recent years with Tyrelle Pryor. Pryor is gone, Tressel is gone, and key players are suspended including receiver Devier Posey and Running Back Daniel Herron.

We like the QB match up here with Cousins over Braxton Miller making his 2nd start. We like the Michigan State defense and their chances to stop the Ohio State run and force the game into the hands of the inexperienced QB. Our main concern would be the Michigan State offensive line.

We can look at Michigan State playing 3 cup cakes and then losing to Notre Dame 31-13. But note that that game was 28-13 with Michigan State having a 1st and goal at the ND 3 late in the game before a pick went the other way for a TD. Mich State had more 1st downs and more yards than ND, holding the explosive Irish offense to 161 passing yards and 114 on the ground.

We can also look at Ohio State squeaking by Toledo, a game where Toledo out gained the Buckeyes and shot themselves in the foot with 14 penalties compared to 2 for Ohio State. We can also look at the Buckeyes being dominated by Miami when they stepped up in class.

We like our chances with Michigan State to finally get a win in this series, making the +3 a bonus.

Steve Janus

Bowling Green +20

Bowling Green doesn't have what it takes to upset the Mountaineers on the road, but I believe they are talented enough offensively to keep this game within striking distance and cover the spread. The Mountaineers are coming off a 47-21 loss against LSU this past Saturday, and it is going to be very hard for them to get pumped up to play a team they know they will beat. West Virginia has not been a strong team to back as a huge home favorite. They are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Bowling Green comes into the game scoring 38.5 ppg. They are led by sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz, who has completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,169 yards with 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. I look for Schilz and the Falcons passing attack to really catch the Mountaineers by surprise in this game. I expect Bowling Green to score at least 20 points in this game, which should be more than enough to keep them within 20 points.

Bowling Green is 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and an impressive 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater. BET THE FALCONS!

Brandon Lee

Mississippi vs. Fresno State
Play: Fresno State -3

Ole Miss has shown nothing in the first three games to make me believe they are going to go on the road and beat Fresno State. The Rebels aren't going to get fired up to play this game, as they will have their eyes set on giving it everything they have the following week against Alabama. Ole Miss loss 27-13 at home against Georgia last week, but in all honesty they should have lost that game by four touchdowns. Georgia had 475 yards of total offense to the Rebels 183 and benefited from the Bulldogs missing three field goals.

Fresno State is 2-2 with a couple of hard fought losses at California and Nebraska. They are going to be extremely fired up for the chance to show the country that they are for real with a win over an SEC opponents, and I think they could end up running away with this game. The Bulldogs are going to be able to put points up against Mississippi's defense. While they aren't great on defense, they are talented enough to hold the Rebels in check behind a fired up crowd.

Ole Miss is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Joe Gavazzi

Navy -3

Each of these teams is again running the option with aplomb this season. And each of the defenses has again proven to be a bit problematic. That may be slightly more true for Air Force who has allowed 184 RYPG to each of 2 opponents. And they didn't even sniff their only true opponent in a 35-19 loss to TCU. The bottom line numbers show the Fly Boys at 0-3 ATS. When compared to Navy's 3-0 ATS record, it favors Air Force with a -75 net AFP diff. That would normally be an automatic play for us on Air Force. But this line has barely been adjusted since opening week meaning the AFP, in this case, has not done its job of creating value. As a result, we will favor a Navy team who played far better in their only true test at South Carolina, a 24-21 loss as plus 15. And clearly favor the revenge factor for the home team for a 14-6 loss at Air Force which snapped their 7 game winning streak against the Fly Boys, and 7th consecutive year in which they captured the CIC trophy.

John Ryan

Air Force at Navy
Play: Air Force

5* graded play on Air Force as they take on navy set to start at Noon ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Air Force will lose this game by three or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity get a very important road win.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-4 ATS for 86% winner since 1992. Play against a home team that is an excellent rushing team gaining 4.8 or more yards per rush and facing a team with a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in three straight games. of the 34 plays made based on the criteria of this system 14 of them or 40% have covered the spread by more than seven points. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons.

These are two of the best rushing offenses in the country and there could well be over 750 rushing yards gained in this game. Air Force ranks best nationally gaining 411.7 yards per game and Navy ranks fourth nationally gaining 358.3 rushing yards per game. Air Force is averaging 7.4 rushing yards per attempt and Navy is averaging a solid 6.6 rushing yards per attempt. However, Navy is having trouble defending the run allowing opponents an average of 5.9 yards per rush.

Here is a second system that has produced a 79-37 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2005. Play on a road team after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games and with the game taking place in the first half of the season. Of the 116 plays made based on the criteria of the system, 57 or 49% of them covered the spread by seven or more points. This reinforces my strong belief that Air Force has a very good chance of winning the game. The system has posted a solid 3-1 ATS mark for 75% winners this season.

If we fine tune the system to include games that were covered by 28 or more points the record improves to 54-23 ATS for 70.1% winners since 2005. It improves even more noting that 56% of the games played covered the spread by seven or more points.

Tony George

Kent vs. Ohio
Play: Ohio -16

Given the fact Ohio U lost 4 fumbles against Rutgers last week, no wonder they lostr. They own every single stat edge that counts in this one. This opened up at 13.5 and rose through a fall number of 14, but simply cannot help thinking the offense for the Golden Flashes on the road will again sputter and not hold water against a good Solich coached run game and QB Tetteton kicking in with his excellent pass abilities. As a matter of point, The Flashes simply suck on the road, and have been outscored by a total of 123-10 in their last 3 road games. Amazing stat as I was researching this MAC tilt. Ohio U off a loss, Frank Solich a damn good coach when preparing a team, and at home off a game they could have won the week before against a weak opponent while in focus, is a 3 TD win by Ohio U.

Larry Ness

Texas -9

The Cyclones won 28-21 in Austin last year, marking the school's first-ever win over the Longhorns and its first win over a ranked opponent on the road since 1990. It was the first of what would become four straight Texas losses in 2010, a season which saw Texas go from a 3-0 start and a No. 6 ranking to losing SEVEN of its final nine games. However, one should note that the Longhorns had 83 more FDs and 988 more yards than their opponents despite their losing record (minus-12 turnover ratio was a 'killer') and not surprisingly, Texas has opened 3-0 in 2011. Texas has a number of "revenge" games on tap this season and was last in action on 9/17 when it routed UCLA 49-20 (lost at home to the Bruins last year, 34-12). QB Garrett Gilbert has been benched and Colt's younger brother Case (sophomore) plus true freshman David Ash, now run the team at QB. Two more true freshman, RB Brown and WR Jaxon Shipley (Jordan's brother), are also major contributors. The defense is very good (258.7 YPG ranks 10th and 15.0 PPG ranks 17th) and while Iowa Sate may be off to a 3-0 start (that's no small feat, as it marks the first time that's ever happened in school history!), Paul Rhoads' team is up against it here. JUCO transfer QB Steele Jantz has led the Cyclones to three straight come from behind wins (no margin of great than four points) but his six INTs in 106 attempts is a 'warning sign.' This is BY FAR the best defense Jantz has encountered in 2011 and that Texas defensive speed will be too much. When the Cyclones fall behind here, there will be no comeback. Revenge works again for Texas (it may become a real 'habit' in 2011). Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Auburn vs. South Carolina

Tenth-ranked South Carolina tries to run over defending national champion Auburn when the Tigers visit Columbia on Saturday. The Gamecocks haven’t beaten Auburn since 1933, a stretch of six meetings. But this year is a different story, as the Tigers rank 78th in total offense (374 YPG). Last week, they only scored two offensive touchdowns versus a weak Florida Atlantic defense.The Gamecocks are (16-2) SU in their past (18) home games, and they should have no trouble winning by double-digits on Saturday as since 2008, Auburn is (2-6) ATS as a road underdog. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday College Football complimentary selection is South Carolina Gamecocks.

Brad Diamond

Kentucky vs. LSU
Play: LSU -30

LSU rolls into Tiger Stadium on Saturday afternoon the #1 team in country via the AP brain trust. After defeating three ranked teams this season the star of HC Les Miles is earning NFL talk. What has made the Tigers a formidable unit is their tenacious quicksilver defense balanced by red shirt frosh and red shirt sophomores. To defeat the Tigers you will need a formidable offense balanced between the run and pass. Saturday opponent Kentucky is ranked #113 in total offense garnering only 285 yards per game overall. The set-up does not look good for KU. With the home team 6-0 ATS in the series, I’ll grab a ticket with the Tigers.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Northwestern at Illinois

Northwestern is expected to get QB Persa back for this matchup with rival Illinois and we'll gladly grab the points with the Wildcats considering their sparkling 36-17 ATS mark as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also 8-2 ATS when visiting Champaign. We're not buying the Illini, who are off back to back 3-point wins and are 9-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Play on: Northwestern