SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -5½ over Saskatchewan
The Stamps are definitely an erratic bunch and an underachieving one too. There’s also talk of some tension within, as Joffrey Reynolds has been told that he’s no longer #1 on the depth chart. He doesn’t like that and has made it clear. Having said that, who really cares about a whining prima donna? His teammates will probably come out and have their best game of the year and shut this guy up. Nobody wants to hear it. Calgary allowed an embarrassing 55 points against last week in Hamilton. If that doesn’t wake them up nothing will. The good news is that they put up 36 of their own and during a three-game August winning streak in August the Stamps scored 32, 45 and 38 points respectively. That seems like a while ago but over an 18-game schedule almost every team will hit a peak and a valley. Calgary hit their low last week and we should see a much-more focused club this week. The ascending begins again. The Riders hit their peak with a three-game winning streak before getting whacked last week by the surging Lions. That loss could carry over and while the Riders have been the better club over the last month, they’re not in Calgary’s class. In fact, the Stamps have won both games this year against the Riders and both games were in Saskatchewan. No reason to think that the Riders can return the favor against a highly motivated host in a good spot after back-to-back blowout losses. Play: Calgary –5½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TORONTO +4 over Hamilton
Argos had a very nice win over the Bombers last week and in the process of that win, Steven Jyles got another week under his belt. Jyles hasn’t been sharp but give him time, as he’s about two months behind schedule of everyone else and every game we should see improvement. Toronto also has the CFL’s best defense in terms of yards allowed and that counts for something. The Ticats may be a little too high after dismantling of Stamps. All year it’s been feast or famine for the Tabbies and much like the Stampeders, they’re an erratic bunch that can’t be trusted when they’re expected to win. But if not for the fact that Ejiro Kuale of the Argos guaranteed a victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the immediate euphoria of his team's upset victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, we’d be on Toronto. It makes no sense to motivate a club, especially when you’re the team that is 3-8. You let your play on the field do your talking. In any even, not comfortable endorsing either side, especially with the unpredictable history these two have against one another. Play: Toronto +4 (No bets).
MLB Predictions
St Louis Cardinals +1.5
Tonight in Game 1 we will see a pair of veterans on the mound - Kyle Lohse vs Roy Halladay. These two faced each other on September 19th with Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals coming out on top in a game that was played in Philadelphia. Lohse is 14-8 on the year with a 3.39 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, and .249 opponents batting average. He has been solid over his last 5 starts giving up just 6 earned runs and getting through at least 6 innings four times over those 5 starts. Halladay has been himself going 19-6 over the course of the season with a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .239 opponents batting average. Note that St Louis is averaging over 5 runs on the road, while the Phillies are averaging 4.53 runs at home. The Cardinals rolled right into the playoffs winning 21 of their last 29 games, including going 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog. They are 12-2 in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record, and 13-3 in their last 16 vs National League East teams. St Louis is also 8-2 in Lohse's last 10 starts. Before pulling off four straight victories to end the season the Phillies had lost 8 in a row, which included 6 straight at home. Note the Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day. The Cardinals are feeling good and hitting the ball well lately as they had to earn their spot in the post season in September. I look for the Cardinals to give the Phillies a lot of troubles in this opening NLDS series, and that starts today. Take the Cardinals on the run line to keep it tight, or pull out an upset.
Real Time Animal
2* Tennessee -28.5
Buffalo is now 3-13 under 2nd-year coach Jeff Quinn. In their last eight games the Bulls have lost to Akron, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State twice with their only win against Stony Brook. Last Saturday it was homecoming in Buffalo and they scored three points against Connecticut. Tennessee had last week off to lick their wounds from the 10-point loss in the swamp at Florida. But the Volunteers also crushed Cincinnati in Knoxville 45-23 and I've seen the Bearcats look very good twice. Tennessee behind solid QB Tyler Bray, threw for 405 yards against Cincinnati. I know Tennessee has a huge revenge game against Georgia next week, but I don't see a letdown from them after the Gator loss and with 2nd-year coach Derek Dooley needing every win he can get (6-7 in first year). The last time Buffalo ventured into SEC territory was in 2006 when they lost at Auburn 38-7. Bottom line: Since 2002 the Buffalo program has lost at least 10 games in a season four times including 2010. This team can't score. Last year they averaged 14.2 points per game and so far this season has scored 44 points in three games against FBS competition. Tennessee better produce a monster win here because the next four weeks might be the toughest in the country. Home to Georgia and LSU, on the road at Alabama, and home versus South Carolina. Yikes! Tennessee ran it up on feeble opponents last year scoring 50 or more three times including twice when favored by 19 1/2 or more. Even without star WR Justin Hunter (knee injury) I still expect Tennessee to blowout Buffalo. This is going to seem like a walk in the park for Bray (#15 nationally in efficiency) after facing the very athletic and quick Florida defensive line. Buffalo returned just three starters on defense this year. Meanwhile the offense is #85 in the country this year despite facing Connecticut, Ball State, and Stony Brook the last three weeks.
Don Wallace Sports
Kansas St +4
Kansas St. ranks sixth in the nation in yards per game allowed (246.3) and 11th against the pass (157.3). The Wildcats received votes in this week's AP poll following a 28-24 win at Miami last week. Although the Kansas St. yielded a season-high 411 yards, the defense came up with an impressive stand late, stopping Miami on fourth-and-goal with 49 seconds left. Linebacker Tre Walker made three straight tackles inside the 2-yard line, earning Big 12 defensive player of the week honors. Walker stepped up last week, but the anchor of the defense is Arthur Brown, who leads the team with 25 tackles, including three for loss. Baylor coach Art Briles expects the victory to give the Wildcats a lot of confidence going into this weekend. Kansas St. has not defeated a ranked opponent since beating then-No. 7 Texas in 2007, dropping eight straight against the Top 25. This is the Bears' first visit to Manhattan since a 51-13 loss in 2007. They've never won on the road in the series. Bill Snyder is 9-5 ATS as a dog last 2 years.
O.C. Dooley
Oregon State +18
One may want to call this a law-of-averages pick as Oregon State has not started a campaign with an 0-4 record since way back in 1996 which automatically makes them a dangerous underdog. Considering that the Beavers have used a grand total of 17 different “first year” starters already, it does not come as a complete shock that this extremely young squad is 0-3 out of the gate, even though an opening week home setback to Sacramento State was unexpected. Certainly the oddsmakers do not expect the Beavers to put up much of a fight as their combined touchdowns (5) and points scored (47) are the lowest among any squad that operates out of a BCS conference. But the main reason why I am willing to step out on a limb with Oregon State is that even though they lost on the scoreboard last week, they ended up actually WINNING the statistical battle. That just happens not to be the case with the #25-ranked Arizona State Sun Devils who won straight-up on the scoreboard last weekend but LOST the overall statistical battle which to me is a red flag. Another red flag warning is that host Arizona State is in a “look ahead” position as they have talented Utah along with #9-ranked Oregon on deck. It would be easy for the host Sun Devils to look past the lowly Beavers tonight but that fact of the matter is that underdog Oregon State has won the last three matchups in this series outright. The last time Oregon State visited tonight’s location two years ago, not only did they pull off an outright upset, the Beavers at the time snapped an ugly 0-16 losing skid on the road. Turning to the database here is a whopping 80-PERCENT SYSTEM (38-10 the past five years in the “first half” of the season) that plays ON road teams like Oregon State after being beaten against-the-spread by a combined 35+ points in a three-game span. That system plays “against” an Arizona State contingent who just knocked off traditional western power Southern California which may not be a good thing. Teams from the conference now referred to as the Pac-12 the week after defeating the USC Trojans have been a financial disaster (0-6 ATS) when cast as a double-digit favorite
David Banks
Nebraska / Wisconsin Over
The #8 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers are all set to square off against the #7 ranked Wisconsin Badgers as both programs meet for the first time in Big 10 action under ABC’s Saturday night college football backdrop; kick-off from Camp Randall Stadium is set for 8:00 ET.
This is it - The game Big Red nation has been waiting for! This primetime match-up with the Wisconsin Badgers will mark the very first time that Nebraska will have faced a Big 10 opponent as a member of the conference. Coach Bo Pelini’s squad enters this tussle a perfect 4-0 SU on the year, but the only pointspread victory achieved came just last week when the Blackshirts marched into Laramie, WY and came away with the 38-14 road win and cover (-21). The ATS triumph moved the Cornhuskers to 8-2 SU but just 3-7 ATS their L/10 when favored, but they invade Madison as the underdog; a role they’ve covered in each of the L/4 times with the most recent cover coming in the Big 12 Championship Game against Oklahoma. Nebraska’s 6-2 ATS its L/8 away from Lincoln, but just 2-5 ATS its L/7 when playing off a SU win.
Then there’s the Wisconsin Badgers who enter this contest also a perfect 4-0 SU on the year after simply tearing apart their opponents leading up to this game. Wiscy throttled UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois and South Dakota by a combined score of 194-34 and easily covered each game depending upon where you bought into the market in Week 1. Last week’s match-up was a primer for this one as head coach Brett Bielema already started talking about just how excited he and his team was for this game minutes after making a mockery of their game against the Huskies back on September 17th. Led by new QB Russell Wilson, the Badgers balanced attack through the air and on the ground has the Badgers offense ranked 8th in total yardage (532.2 YPG) and 6th in points scored (48.5 PPG). Wiscy’s in the midst of a 10-0-1 ATS run dating back to last season, but stands just 4-8 SU against ranked opponents in the regular season under the current coaching regime.
These programs last met over three and a half decades ago with the Badgers scoring a 21-20 outright win in Madison. Nebraska has represented well on the road against top notch competition by going 10-3 ATS its L/13 against +.500 opposition. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of their L/5 played as dogs. Wisconsin is 7-0-1 ATS its L/8 played in front of its frenzied hometown faithful, but just 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS its L/8 games played in October. The ‘over’ is 9-4-1 in the Badgers L/14 games played.