Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 10,2009

Freddy Wills

UTEP vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis +2

Going with Memphis here today this line is way off and it's based on UTEP's offensive explosion at home last week against a solid Houston team. Note they were out gained by 83 yards despite winning by 17. Before this offensive explosion UTEP could barely put together anything on offense in fact they are still ranked 117th overall and they are bad against the pass and rush. Memphis is not much better, but their offensive and defense ranks are slightly better and most of all their pass defense is ranked 62nd. They played Mississippi in game 1 to 17-7 at home before getting blown out. Memphis did the same thing last year they started slow and then they got it together and I think with the need to win they will get it done. Memphis can not fall to 0-3 and despite them being without Bass at QB Memphis has allowed just 6 sacks and Hudgens who will now be back their should be able to pass all over UTEP that gave up up 536 yards last week. UTEP falls under an interesting tredn: Teams since the 1985 season are 10-29-1 ATS when they are off a home win as dogs while going over now playing vs. conference opponent as an away favorite.

Marc Lawrence

Kentucky at South Carolina
Prediction: Kentucky

The Wildcats invade Columbia to meet the Gamecocks in a key SCE showdown early Saturday looking to shake a three-game ATS losing slide. That good news for Kentucky backers as the Cats are 3-1 SU and ATS in games off three spread losses under head coach Rich Brooks. They are also 0-2 in SEC play this season, making them a hungry dog against 2-0 South Carolina. With the Gamecocks looking dead ahead to a matchup with Alabama next week, this is the week to side the with Wildcats.

David Malinsky

Kentucky @ South Carolina
PICK: South Carolina -9.5

Rich Brooks and his Kentucky team are in one of the worst scheduling set-ups of the season this week. Not only are they off of back-to-back games against Florida and Alabama, the toughest two-game cycle any team will face, but they are also going on the road for the first time (the win over Miami O. at Cincinnati was a short bus ride, and there were far more Wildcat fans in attendance), to take on one of the freshest opponents they will face this autumn. To make matters worse, Brooks has gone 0-4 SU and ATS against Steve Spurrier in their head-to-head encounters, losing to the spread by 38.5 per game in the process. But that is not all, which is what makes this one easy to get to at the reduced tariff the markets have created.

As if the scheduling dynamics were not enough for Kentucky, those back-to-back physical drubbings of the past two weeks have taken a particular toll on defense. They will have to make this trip without their best defender, CB Trevard Lindley, a second-team All-American LY, and also his partner at the other CB spot, Paul Warford. Not only does that force true FR Martavious Neloms and SO Randal Burden into the starting lineup, but it also means untested SO Taledo Smith and RS FR Cartier Rice will have to play major roles, since South Carolina is going to spread the field with multiple WR’s to attack those very weaknesses. With Stephen Garcia and the Gamecock offense growing by the week, the holes in the Wildcat defense can be readily exploited.

It is not any easier for Kentucky offensively. South Carolina held N. C. State, Georgia and Mississippi to a combined 689 yards on only 41 first downs, with the Gamecocks fielding an aggressive group with the kind of team speed that makes driving the field difficult. And that defense will have plenty of energy here. While Kentucky has faced not only the two best teams in the nation the last two Saturday’s, but also two of the most physical, South Carolina will be playing for only the second time in 16 days, with the only game in that span a walk-over vs. South Carolina State. Without the ability to move the chains and control the ball the Wildcats force their own defense back onto the field too often, magnifying those weaknesses at CB, and we expect both physical and mental fatigue to become factors in the second half as this game breaks wide open.

Sean Murphy

New Mexico @ Wyoming
PICK: Under 48

This play sets up nicely thanks to both New Mexico and Wyoming being involved in higher scoring games than expected last week.

New Mexico stayed inside the inflated pointspread at Texas Tech, scoring 28 points in the process. That game produced 76 points, sailing over the posted total of 56. Prior to that contest, the Lobos had been held to 6, 10, 13, and 17 points in their first four games this season.

Donovan Porterie may bring plenty of experience to the table, but he's by no means an efficient quarterback. Through five games the senior has thrown for only 846 yards, completing 59% of his passes for three touchdowns and three interceptions. He can't shoulder all of the blame, as he isn't surrounded by a wealth of talent. The Lobos have also had a tough time moving the football on the ground, averaging just over 105 rush yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.

I expect the Lobos offense to struggle again in this spot. Despite allowing over 28 points per game, Wyoming has actually been fairly solid on the defensive side of the ball at home this season. Through three games as hosts, the Cowboys have limited their opposition to 4.1 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass play. That's despite facing a pair of explosive offenses in Texas and UNLV.

Wyoming has scored exactly 30 points in each of its last two contests, but I don't expect them to hang another crooked number on the board this week. This qualifies as a letdown spot for the Cowboys after back-to-back outright underdog wins over UNLV and Florida Atlantic. The Cowboys had scored only 39 points in their first three games of the season.

Wyoming's passing game has come around under the guidance of freshman QB Austyn Carta-Samuels, but in order to be effective through the air, the Cowboys need to run the football. New Mexico has actually been stout against the run this season, holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per rush. If the Cowboys can't get their ground game rolling early, Carta-Samuels could be in for a long day.

New Mexico has put up awful defensive numbers so far this season, but the Lobos have also faced a difficult schedule, going up against the likes of Texas A&M, Tulsa, Air Force, and Texas Tech. They caught a breather along the way in the form of New Mexico State, and performed well defensively in that game, holding the Aggies to just 20 points on 218 total yards of offense.

This has been an under series in recent years, with five of the last six matchups totaling 29 points or less. Last year it was New Mexico walking away with a 24-0 victory. That game featured only 551 total yards of offense. In fact, the losing team has been held to 10 points or less in five of the last six meetings.

Because the Lobos and Cowboys have been involved in shootouts in recent weeks, the oddsmakers have no choice but to set this total in the high-40s. I believe the number is at least a field goal too high, so I'll recommend a play on the under. Take the under.

Larry Ness

Iowa St. @ Kansas
PICK: Kansas-19.5

Gene Chizik went 5-19 in two years at Ames but was welcomed back at Auburn (he was the school's DC in 2004 when the Tigers went 13-0) after Tuberville was forced out.Chizik made the right move (Tigers are 5-0 and ranked 17th) while last year's DC at Auburn, Paul Rhoads, is the new HC at Iowa St. The Cylcones are 3-2 after last week's heartbreaking loss in Kansas City to Kansas St. Iowa State QB Austen Arnaud threw a 23-yard TD pass with 32 seconds remaining in the game last Saturday and the Cylcones only needed to add the extra point for OT. However, Emmanuel Lamur blocked the extra point attempt and ISU was left with a crushing 24-23 loss. Now the Cyclones must visit Lawrence to take on the 4-0 and 15th-ranked Jayhawks. Kansas opened the 2009 season with three straight easy wins (averaged 42.3 PPG) but win No. 4 was a little closer, as the Jayhawks' D struggled somewhat with Southern Miss, winning just 35-28. There have been no struggles for QB Todd Reesing in 2009 though. He came into his senior season having thrown for 7,374 yards the last two years with 65 TDs and just 20 INTs. He's completing a career-high 67.1 percent of his passes through four games (averaging 284.3 YPG in the air) with nine TDs and two INTs. Former QB turned WR Kerry Meier (97 catches / 8 TDs in 2008) is off a 10-catch, two-TD game vs Southern Miss and depending how many games the Jayhawks play in 2009 (will they reach the Big 12 title game?), will likely catch 80-90 passes again in 2009. The Kansas running game is very good with Opurum (320 YR / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) and Sharp (240 YR / 5.7 YPC / 3 TDs) both contributing to the team's 209.3 YPG on the ground (5.1 YPC / 12 TDs). Iowa State's three wins have come over North Dakota St plus two FBS 'lightweights,' Kent State and Army. The Cyclones have lost 12 straight Big 12 road games (average loss by just under three TDs) and with Kansas off a bye week and ISU off that last-second loss to KSU, expect the Jayhawks to roll. Lay it!

Alex Smart

Duke @ NC State
PICK: NC State -14

Duke has lost 11 straight in this series to North Carolina State and have lost 20 straight ACC road games. I'm betting things do not get much better for Duke football program here today in Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh vs a Tom Obrien coached team that are off a disappointing 34-24 road loss to Wake Forest last week . It must be noted that Wolfpack have proven to be a strong bounce back bet as is evident by a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games following a S.U. Loss. The Blue Devils have beaten a couple of cupcakes this season (NC Central & Army), and lost to FCS team Richmond to begin their season. Needless to say Duke is far from a consistent team. The Bottom line: The Blue Devils , are off an emotional loss to Vtech last week in front of their own alumni. Duke played a great game behind top tier QB Thadeus Lewis, and still came up short which I'm sure will now have them in a letdown situation , which in turn will put them at a disadvantage. NC Sate despite of a ugly effort last time out are an explosive team behind the arm of QB Russel Wilson who has thrown for 14 TD passes this season. I expect he and his offense rip apart a Duke D, that have allowed average of 366 YPG on the year and smashed for 477 yards by a pedestrian Vtch offense last Saturday. Final notes & Key Trends: Wolfpack are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Blue Devils are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater......Play on North Carolina State ? Projected score : NC State 37 Duke 17

Matt Fargo

UTEP @ Memphis
PICK: Memphis +3

UTEP is coming off a huge win last week over Houston and because of that one effort, the Miners are now road favorites. Granted they were road favorites over New Mexico St., arguably one of the worst teams in the country, and covered that number even though they outgained the Aggies by only 54 total yards. Even against Houston, despite winning by 17 points, UTEP was outgained by 83 yards by the Cougars as it was able to take advantage of two fumbles, one that was returned 70 yards for a touchdown. In its other games, it lost at home to Buffalo and was annihilated by both Kansas ands Texas while getting outgained by 964 yards in those games. Memphis obviously does not compare to those latter two teams mentioned but it shows that the Miners are not a very good team. The same can surely be said about Memphis as they are having a very disappointing season. At 1-4, the Tigers have yet to defeat a team from the FBS as their only win has come against FCS team Tennessee-Martin. It also happened to be the only game where they outgained their opponent which is definitely a problem. The only saving grace is the play at home where it played Mississippi real tough for three quarters and also played Marshall tough as it was outgained by just 16 yards. All of this still translates into a 1-4 record but let’s not forget who we are dealing with here. Memphis started 2007 going 2-4 and started 0-3 last season before making a strong finish and heading to a bowl game both years. The season is far from over but this is a game that is really does need to win as it cannot fall to 0-3 in C-USA action. Tigers quarterback Tyler Bass, who has started the last three games, is a question mark here due to a shoulder injury but the offense has not done much and if he can’t go, veteran Will Hudgens will get the nod which is a pretty equal trade if you ask me. I take long looks at rankings for rushing offense and defense as well as offensive and defensive passing efficiency as those are four big categories when it comes to the strength of a team. Neither of these teams is very solid in any of those areas and that is what makes this line even more puzzling. The average ranking for Memphis in those aforementioned categories is 102nd while the average for UTEP is 93rd. That is not a big difference at all and those rankings do take strength of schedule into account as the Miners have played a much tougher slate. For instance, they are 83rd in raw rushing offense but I have ranked 56th based on their schedule. By factoring in the schedules, it does not allow unfair advantages. So in this case, we are a relatively even scale yet the road team gets the chalk. Memphis falls into a very potent situation as well. Play against road teams where the line is between +3 and -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +5.4 ppg. This situation is a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last five seasons and it makes logical sense as it is simply saying play against really bad teams that are wrongly favored on the road. Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against defenses that are allowing 6.25 or more yppl (UTEP is allowing 6.26 actually). Also, the Miners are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games against teams that have a winning percentage worse than .250. Look for the Tigers to finally get over that FBS hump. 3* Memphis Tigers

Black Widow

1* on Army +11

These are two power running teams in Vanderbilt and Army. The Commodores don't have the kind of explosive offense it takes to cover this double-digit spread on the road. Vandy has scored 9 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this year, and the only times they surpassed that 9-point total came against lowly Rice and Western Carolina teams. Army is no powerhouse, but they are much better than they are getting credit for with this line. The Black Knights are rushing for 231 yards/game this season. Vandy has not stopped the run very well, giving up 160 rushing yards/game so the Black Knights should be able to move the ball on the ground with ease. Vandy is only completing 46.3% of their passes this year, so their strength is certainly their running game. But Army is allowing just 112 rushing yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry. We like the Black Knights catching double-digit points at home here especially when these are two evenly matched teams. Don't be surprised to see an upset here Saturday. Take Army and the points.

John Anthony

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -13

The 2009 Hokies have the same MO as the other 22 VT editions under Beamer in that they play up and down to their competition and as dependable as rain covering this type of number. Why use them here ??? The ACC has come down to these two over the past couple of years and will take this one very seriously as the last time BC visited, they beat the 8th-ranked Hokies behind Matty Ice. BC a bit down this year despite win over FSU, their one one roadie was a spanking at Clemson. John Anthony sees the Hokie version that beat down Miami two weeks ago rather than the VT light we saw at Duke. Lay it with Virginia Tech.

John Martin

1 Unit on Baylor/Oklahoma O 54

Oklahoma might just put up 54 points on their own Saturday to get the OVER for us. The Sooners are scoring 54.5 points/game at home this season so it's certainly not out of the question. Baylor is also a very good offensive squad, scoring 36.2 points/game this season. So they'll chip in enough points to get the OVER as well. Oklahoma has put up 49 and 52 points on Baylor in their last two meetings with the Bears, respectively. Both games went OVER the number as Baylor chipped in 17 and 21 points, respectively. Oklahoma is a PERFECT 9-0 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Sooners are also 10-1 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with the OVER 54 points.

Dennis Macklin

Michigan State vs. Illinois
Play: Michigan State -4

The Fighting Illini are in complete freefall and it appears that Ron Zook is ready to move on as he's replaced QB Juice Williams (38 consecutive starts) with first time starter Eddie (63%, 1-2, 211) McGee. Illinois is a disaster on both sides of the ball with the offense 110th in scoring and the stop unit 105th in total defense. Twenty-four of their 26 points scored against BCS opponents came in fourth quarter garbage time with the horse already out of the barn. The Spartans have to be ultra-confident after win over the hated Wolverines and do some nice things with QB changeup of Cousins and Nichol. Spartie has dominated the series of late including winning five of six here making MSU a solid call.

Steve Zukiel

Utep vs. Memphis
Play: Utep -2½

I truly believe the UTEP Miners are a much better football team than the struggling Memphis Tigers and usually this game would be all over my service. However, let's not forget that the Miners are coming off a HUGE UPSET of the then-ranked Houston Cougars last week, so there very well could be a letdown here. Despite that, I still believe they are a play and want everybody to get this play for free. Let's also not forget that the Tigers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at the Liberty Bowl. Take the Miners here.

Bob Wingerter

Michigan vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -8

It is amazing how a couple of plays can change the perceptions of a team and a season. But while there is a general level of optimism in the second season for Rich Rodriguez in Ann Arbor, the shrewd observer will see something entirely different. The Wolverines trailed Notre Dame and Indiana by a combined 145 yards of total offense in those two tense home wins, needing to rally from fourth quarter deficits each time. And if not for hitting a 60-yard TD pass with a little over four minutes remaining at East Lansing on Saturday, they could have lost in double figures in a game in which they were dominated at the line of scrimmage (they were outrushed 197-28). How different does the season look if a couple of those big plays are not made? The bottom line is that they are still lacking in fundamentals on both sides of the ball, with the offense a work in progress because of those young QB’s, and the defense not any better under Greg Robinson than LY’s mediocre unit. Now they have to leave the state of Michigan for the first time, and will face an opponent that will tax all of those issues. That hard-hitting Iowa LB corps rates among the nation’s best, and will keep the Wolverine spread attack form having any seams to work with, while a Hawkeye offense geared around ball control can methodically move the chains throughout both on the ground and through the air. And by playing with their usual fundamental soundness, they frustrate an opponent that lacks a similar polish.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&m
Play: Oklahoma State -5

We got what we expected from these Aggies at the top of this page last week, a young team that was absolutely not ready for prime time, yet got put into the wrong pointspread category because of those routs vs. lightweights. Unfortunately that loss to Arkansas was so decisive that the oddsmakers see that adjustments need to be made, but they will leave this door wide open for us. It will be a crisis of confidence for Mike Sherman's team, with so many true freshmen already in key roles, and the last thing that they need is to face not only a superior opponent, but one that is hungry and fresh. Having only coasted past Grambling two weeks ago, and then having last week off, the Cowboys will be in a mood to play their A game, and with so much talent in the skill positions that exemplary balance can overwhelm this defense, much as they did in last year's 56-28 rout in Stillwater. Mike Gundy's squad has gone 6-2 ATS on the Big 12 road the past two seasons, and will be well prepared for this trip.

#1 Sports

Wisconsin @ Ohio State

Wisconsin: The Badgers (5-0, 2-0 Big 10) retained The Paul Bunyan Axe for the 6th-consecutive season with a 31-28 victory at Minnesota last week in which 6’1” 248 sophomore RB John Clay (112 for 582 and 7 TD) captured conference’s Offensive Player of the Week honors with 184 rush yards and 3 scores while 6’3” 248 senior LDE O’Brien Schofield (26 T, 11 TFL, 4 ½ S, 2 FF) bagged conference Defensive Player of the Week accolades with 6 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, a pair of sacks, a forced fumble, plus a pass defensed.

Little was expected of Schofield’s stopper group heading into the season – and they have been a little generous to opposing pass attacks, allowing 235.0 pass yards passing per game with 9 TD – but the big, drive-ending plays keep piling up to hold opponents to a manageable 24.6 points per contest. 12 different players have either forced a fumble, recovered a fumble, or snatched a pick to tally up 8 interceptions and 7 recovered fumbles through 5 games. Pressure has been the key with 34 tackles for loss including 14 sacks while 6’4” 291 sophomore RDT Patrick Butrym’s improving health produced big dividends against the Gophers with 4 tackles, a sack, and an interception. Speedy and dynamic linebackers 6’2” 230 senior Jaevery McFadden (32 T, 3 TFL, S), 6’0” 233 junior Culmer S. Jean (31 T, 2 TFL, FR), and 6’2” 221 Mike Taylor (35 T, 5 TFL, S, FF, FR, INT) have all terrorized on the blitz and 6’0” 198 senior FS Chris Maragos (26 T, 2 TFL, S, FF, 3 INT) capitalized by forcing 4 turnovers himself. Sophomore corners 5’9” 185 Antonio Fenelus (19 T, FR, INT) and 5’11” 188 Devin Smith (16 T, FR, INT) are getting better but are still young and can be had.

Head Coach Bret Bielema’s (33-11 in 4th year at Madison) is a balanced, efficient attack that has just one weakness…hanging on to the rock. 7 glaring fumbles have been an issue with backs Clay and 5’10” 210 junior Zach Brown (52 for 211 and 3 TD) each having problems with the handle. Wisconsin is historically known for their behemoth offensive lines (some years bigger than ever the largest in the NFL) and this group may be young but they are well fed again. 6’7” 325 junior LT Gabe Carimi, 6’5” 320 junior LG John Moffitt, 6’5” 315 freshman C Peter Konz, 6’4” 317 sophomore RG Kevin Zeitler, and 6’7” 330 sophomore RT Josh Oglesby have pounded out the conference’s best 217.2 rush yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns while allowing just the NCAA’s second-best 2 sacks all year. 6’3” 205 junior QB Scott Tolzien (82 of 125 for 1043 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT) has thrived with this protection. 6’3” 212 sophomore WR Nick Toon (22 for 269 and 2 TD) and 5’10” 177 WR junior Isaac Anderson (12 for 255 and TD receiving, 2 for 37 and TD rushing) are each credible deep threats while tight ends 6’3” senior Garrett Graham (23 for 268 and 4 TD) and 6’4” 236 junior Lance Kendricks (12 for 135 and 2 TD) have been pure money on 3rd down (36 of 64) and in the Red Zone where the Badgers are perfect with 18 touchdowns and 2 fieldgoals in 20 trips. Wisconsin ranks 1st in the Big 10 with 35.0 points per game and if needed sophomore K Phillip Welch has a deadly leg, already nailing a 57-yarder in 2009.

Ohio State: The Buckeye’s (4-1, 2-0 Big 10, #9 AP) racked their 16th consecutive conference road win last Saturday, holding Indiana to just 18 rush yards on 26 carries on the way to thumping a decent Hoosier squad 33-14. As much was expected but the performance of QB Pryor was a huge step forward by hitting 8 different receivers on 17 of 28 passing for 166 yards with 3 touchdowns and a pick while adding 63 yards and a score on the ground.

6’6” 235 sophomore Terrelle Pryor (67 of 115 for 861 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT passing and 55 for 298 and 3 TD rushing) is exactly polished and ranks 10th in the conference at 172.2 pass yards per contest but has superb size, is 12-2 as a starter, and is deceivingly fast with long strides that have caused numerous players to take poor angles. Replacing NFL selections RB Chris Wells, WR Brian Robiske, and WR Brian Hartline wasn’t expected to be easy but the team approach has been effective enough. 6’1” 217 junior RB Brandon Saine (49 for 294 rushing, 9 for 103 receiving) has emerged as the starter over 5’10” 193 sophomore Dan Herron (64 for 233 and 5 TD) with his first career start producing 113 yards on 17 carries last week.6’3” 205 sophomore WR DeVier Posey (19 for 214 and 2 TD) has been reliable while 5’11” 175 junior WR Dane Sanzenbacher (15 for 309 and 4 TD) has smoked defenders for 20.6 yards per catch. By the numbers Ohio State has scored 29.4 points per game on 187.4 yards rushing and 182.0 yards through the air while turning the ball over 8 times and surrendering 6 sacks behind a line that averages 6’5 ½” and 309 pounds that features 3 sophomores including both tackles.

Head Coach Jim Tressel’s (87-20 in 9th-year at Columbus) defense is this crew’s most potent force. Buckeye stoppers have been simple immovable on the ground, allowing 83.4 yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry, while being no more generous through the air, allowing 169.2 yards per game at just 5.5 yards per attempt. 11.8 points allowed per game is the stat that keeps opponents’ coaches up at night and the Ohio State front 7 isn’t just talented, they are extremely deep up front. Defensive tackles Worthington (15 T, S, FR), Denlinger (8 T, 4 TFL, 2 S, INT), Rose (9 T, 3 TFL, 2 S), and Simon (5 T) have all brought devastating penetration from the inside while defensive ends Gibson (12 T, 5 TFL, 2 FF), Heyward (16 T, 3 TFL, 2 S), Williams (8 T, 2 ½ TFL, 1 ½ S), and Wilson (8 T, TFL, INT) have all capitalized on the single-teams. With nowhere to run for the opposition, 8 different Buckeye defenders have snatched picks including tough safeties 6’2” 210 junior Jermale Hines (19 T, S, INT), 6’0” 205 senior Anderson Russell (17 T, FR, INT), and 5’11” 188 senior Kurt Coleman (29 T, 3 FF, INT) plus starting corners 6’1” 193 junior Devon Torrence (15 T, S, FF) and 6’0” 188 junior Chimdi Chekwa (17 T) have the size to handle the conference’s big wideouts. Senior K Aaron Pettry is 5 of 5 from 40+ including a pair of makes from beyond 50 yards this season.

SELECTION: The Badgers may not be the best 5-0 crew in college football (ranked #26 by the AP) but a better Buckeye squad needed a 4th-quarter comeback in 2008 to secure a 20-17 victory at Camp Randall. Take Wisconsin + 16 and check it out on ABC Saturday afternoon at 3:30 PM EST.