Mike Wynn Sports
Georgia @ Tennessee Preview
Certainly a sense of urgency for both these teams Saturday as Georgia is off a tough home loss to LSU and Tennessee is just 2-3 this season and 0-2 in the SEC conference. Georgia off a controversial loss Saturday to Georgia as the Bulldogs were called for a bad excessive celebration penalty on their final TD with just 1:09 to go. The subsequent 15 yard penalty was accessed on the kick off and LSU took the kick all the way to the Georgia 43 and scored shortly there after. Georgia still controls its own destiny in the SEC East as they still have a big date with Florida looming on the Horizon, but a national title shot is probably not in the cards with 2 losses. Tennessee Volunteer fans have to be feeling a bit uneasy these days as the Vols are just 2-3 with the wins over non BCS schools Ohio U and Western Kentucky. Yes Tennessee has been competitive in the losses but that’s not good enough in Knoxville and Lane Kiffin is feeling the heat. Tennessee already 0-2 in conference still has this match up Saturday and road tough trips to Alabama and Ole Miss. Tennessee will probably do well just to make a bowl game in Kiffin’s first season as head coach. So let’s take a look at these two teams and we’ll start with the visiting Georgia Bulldogs.
As I mentioned earlier Georgia is out of the rankings and certainly out of any National Championship game, but this team still controls their own destiny in the SEC East. Win this game and get by Florida and the only stumbling block left on the schedule is Auburn at home. But first things first, Georgia needs to get a win in Knoxville Saturday and they certainly are capable of that. Georgia attack is led by senior QB Joe Cox who’s completing 59% of his passes this season for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns. Cox has the luxury of working behind a good offensive line. At wide out the 6-4 207 lbs AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the country with 30 receptions and 5 TD’s already this season. The backfield was expected to be a strength this season with King & Samuel but the running game is only averaging 99 yards per game on the ground this season, which is very un Georgia like. Offensively the Bulldogs are still capable of putting up points and on the defensive side they should fair well against Tennessee. Georgia weakness on defense is the pass rush and secondary and the Volunteers just don’t possess a pass attack that can exploit it.
Tennessee really needs this one Saturday as a loss means a 2-4 start and a 0-3 in conference, whereas a win puts them at 3-3 and in position for a post season bowl bid. Head coach Lane Kiffin came in with a lot of hoopla and optimism but it hasn’t translated to wins. Yes Tennessee has wins over lowly Western Kentucky and Ohio U, but they’ve yet to beat a BCS school despite being competitive. Tennessee offense is not real good as their QB Crompton has struggled especially against good defensive teams. Crompton has 9 touchdowns this season but 8 interceptions and he’s completed less than 50% of his passes versus BCS opponents. The Vols do have a pair of good running backs in Hardesty & Brown who both average over 5 yards per carry, but the receiving corps lacks a real quality receiver to help out the QB Crompton. With the offense struggling it’s the defense that’s had to carry the load and they’ve done a pretty good job. Defense is only allowing 19.6 points per game this season and their led by one of the best defensive players in the country in safety Eric Berry. Berry is a big hitting ball hawking safety that picked off 7 passes last season and set an SEC interception return yardage record with 265. Once again the defense for the Vols should match up pretty well against the Georgia offense with Berry keeping a close eye on Georgia WR Green.
So let’s take a look at the trends angles for this match up Saturday. The visitor in this series is 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS the last 6. Georgia has won 6 of the last 9 meetings straight up in this series including 3 of the last 4 games played Knoxville. Georgia is 38-21 ATS on the road following a home game since 1992 and Tennessee a dismal 10-23 ATS at home in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. Georgia probably the side here but I won’t buck the desperation factor for Tennessee as this one is a must win for the Volunteers and they’ll play like it. I prefer an under play here instead as I think it sets up nicely for a low scoring game. Tennessee can’t seem to throw the ball which plays to the Georgia strength on defense and Georgia has struggled a bit running the ball which plays to Tennessee’s defensive strength. Georgia is 12-3 under coming off an upset loss and Tennessee is on a 10-0 under run versus SEC opponents and they’re 11-2 under as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. Defenses should be the dominant units on the field and we’ll look for the under to cash.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAYS
SUN BELT GOY
FIU -3.5 over WESTERN KENTUCKY
The Hilltoppers have been outscored by 28.8 ppg and that includes a 21 point home loss to FCS foe Central Arkansas. That's pitiful. FIU may be 0-4 on the year but have taken on a tougher schedule than WKU and have been outscored by just 14.3 ppg in those games. FIU is clearly the stronger team in this one and my Power Ratings call for them to win by 15. I agree.
OKLAHOMA -25 over Baylor
The Sooners are 8-0 ATS atv hjome before BB road games and 9-1 ATS off a SU & ATS loss vs opponent off a DD win. Oklahoma has outscored their home opponents by a 109-0 count and will take on a depleted bears squad that may be down to their 3rd string QB again in this one. Last week they did beat lowly Kent State 31-15, but were still outgained by 50 yards in the contest. Now they take on an angry OU squad, off a loss, that may have Bradford back. Look for the Sooners to flex their muscles in this one and come up with a 30+ point win.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Marshall -4 over TULANE
After allowing Va Tech 52 points the Herd have since allowed just 16 ppg in their next three games and will take on a struggling Tulane offense that has scored just 11 ppg in their 3 games vs FBS teams. Marshall's offense is capable of scoring some points and will face a Tulane defense that has allowed 34.8 ppg on the year. Marshall has won 2 of their last 3 since the Tech game, including a road win over a memphis squad that is better than this Tulane team. Look for Marshall to continue their improved play as they win this one by double digits. My Ratings have the Herd by 13.
3 Team 10 Point Teaser-- Ole Miss +15, West Virginia PK & BYU -7
3 UNIT PLAYS
TEMPLE -13.5 over Ball State
BSU is 1-10 ATS as road dogs off BB SU losses vs an opponent off a SU ATS win. The Owls come in with one of the better defenses in the MAC and will be taking on a BSU team that is depleted along the OL. Temple has been dormats for years and this is their best team in a long time so look for them to go 3-0 in the MAC with ease here.
ILLINOIS +4 over Michigan State
2 UNIT PLAYS
Houston/ Mississippi State Under 68.5
PITTSBURGH -8 over Connecticut
UCLA +3.5 over Oregon
1 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia/ Tennessee Under 46.5
Wisconsin +16.5 over OHIO STATE
3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Alabama Under 51, Pittsburgh -1.5, Washington +9
Vegas Sports Informer
Take BYU (-16) over UNLV
UNLV is coming off a horrible road loss to their rivals in the state of Nevada. Nevada scored 35 unanswered points against the Rebels defense and now UNLV has to play the BYU Cougars at home. BYU should easily score against these Rebels and this game will be over quickly. The road team in this series is 5-2 ATS and "Vegas’s Team" will go down once again.
Indian Cowboy
Take Kentucky (+10) against South Carolina
Whenever you can get an SEC team with a double-digit spread off a loss and with revenge, it is always something to look at. I understand that Kentucky is not fabulous but they are not a bad team at 2-2 in the SEC. This team has solid potential and some good talent. They come off a brutal couple games facing both the national champs on their first road trip and hosting the Crimson Tide. They ended up losing both games at home and although I don't see them winning this game necessarily in South Carolina this is certainly a game they can be competitive in. I like Kentucky, who has revenge from last year and coming off back-to-back SEC losses, to do well here. Kentucky is 9-4 ATS over its last four road games.
Strike Point Sports
Take Iowa State (+20) over Kansas
We're going to take the points and a flier here on the Cyclones. Kansas has looked good this year but it hasn't come against stellar competition. Now that the Jayhawks get into Big 12 play we're going to assume that their score line will drop. And in each of KU's first four games their margin of victory has decreased from game one to game four. We see a back-and-forth match-up in Lawrence with Iowa State being able to move the ball and score. The winner will likely have 30 points, but we feel ISU can put up 20 or so to keep it within the number. Grab the near three TDs in this one.
DAVE COKIN
BALL STATE / TEMPLE
TAKE: TEMPLE
This week, Im looking at a fairly hefty favorite, but I feel Temple will have an easy time with Ball State. The Cardinals are off a very tough home loss to Toledo. Ball State is not a good team this year, but they put themselves in position for a great win with a late score and a successful two-point conversion to take a 30-29 lead with less than one minute to play. But Toledo QB Aaron Opelt found a receiver wide open behind the Cardinals secondary and just like that, the Rockets snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. That finish creates a very difficult scenario for Ball State this week, as its never easy for a team to put a loss like that behind them. The fact they now have to travel to Temple for a meeting with a surging Owls entry compounds the problem.
Temple is positioning itself as a team with a real chance to capture the MACs Eastern Division. Last year, the Owls had their best season in ages, winning five games. It could have been much better than that, as Temple incredibly had three losses on the final play of the game. They struggled some early having to replace their QB and losing a key DL in Junior Galette, who was kicked off the squad for what was called a lack of commitment. The Owls were upset by Villanova in their opener and, as expected, they were drilled at Penn State. But Temple has been very impressive the last two weeks in conference play. They hammered Buffalo and followed that up with a solid road win at Eastern Michigan. I like the power in the trenches being established by the Owls, as they have amassed a stellar 440-149 ground game advantage in the two wins. The final 24-12 tally in last weeks Temple victory was a bit misleading, as it was actually a very easy win for the Owls.
I see the key variables on Temples side here. They look to have a clear superiority from a purely physical standpoint, and have a great chance to dominate Ball State at the point of attack. Its a bigger game for the Owls, as theyre trying to get to 3-0 in league play. Theres no distraction with a look ahead game, as non-conference Army is on deck, so I see Temple being very focused for this contest. The Cardinals are forced to travel to an unfamiliar venue, as these teams have never met previously, and theyre doing so off a potentially demoralizing defeat. I see this as a scenario that heavily favors Temple, and I see the Owls as an underrated team right now. So its Temple minus the points for this weeks free opinion.
Rocketman
Ball State vs. Temple
Play: Temple -14.5
Temple -14 Ball State comes in with an 0-5 record on the season while Temple is 2-2 so far this year. Ball State defense is allowing 427.6 yards per game so far this season. Temple is 11-2 ATS the past 3 years when playing on grass. Temple is 5-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in October. Ball State is allowing 39 points per game on the road this year. Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Owls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October. Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Owls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Owls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Owls are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Owls are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. We'll recommend a small play on Temple today!
Wunderdog
Michigan at Iowa
Pick: Iowa -7.5
Michigan is a much-improved team, but their miracle finish vs. Notre Dame at home has changed this team into something they are not, at least in the eyes of the public and oddsmakers. We saw a hint of it last week as they opened as a favorite and by kickoff were a four-point underdog. They went on to show the truth in a loss at not-so-highly regarded Michigan State. After four games at home to start the season, last week was their first road game and they must do it again on the road this week. The biggest hole for Michigan is on defense. Eliminating uncompetitive games vs. Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan, the Wolverines have allowed 31 points per game. They face an Iowa team that has the defensive prowess to shut down the Wolverines offense, and that simply puts added pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops. We were on Iowa vs. Penn State as a 5-unit play two weeks ago when they won as a 10 point dog. I liked them so much in that game because of their defense. The same applies here. The Hawkeyes won that game by holding Penn State (who has better offense than Michigan) to just 10 points on the road. And they were able to generate 21 against a Penn State defense that is much better than Michigan's. So, if Iowa can win in Happy Valley, they should have no problem here at home vs. a weaker team. The Hawkeyes have delivered a 37-17 ATS mark in their last 54 at home. They are 10-2 ATS as a favorite from 3.5-10 points and 8-1 ATS after 5+ straight wins under Kirk Ferentz. Michigan is 2-6-1 ATS the past few years as a Big Ten underdog. And, Rich Rodriguez is just 1-10 ATS vs. teams that allow14 or fewer points per game! I like Iowa in this one.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Oklahoma State – vs Texas A&M
Oklahoma -25 vs Baylor
Fresno -9.5 vs Hawaii
Ole Miss +4.5 vs Alabama
Temple -13.5 vs Ball State
UConn +7.5 vs Pittsburgh
Single Plays
Iowa State -16 vs Wisconsin
Wyoming +10 vs New Mexico
Indiana +7 vs Virginia
Arizona -3 vs Washington
Arizona State -21 vs Washington State
UCLA +3.5 vs Oregon
Arkansas +2 vs Auburn
Utah State -11 vs New Mexico State
SMU +6.5 vs East Carolina
Colorado +32.5 vs Texas
North Texas +6.5 vs ULaL
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan at Iowa
Play: Michigan
The Wolverines have been involved with hard-fought contests, and while that can be emotionally and physcially draining on a team, I doubt the Wolverines will fall prey to a letdown. After all, this game is incredibly important in the Big-10 standings after losing to the Spartans last Saturday. Their opponent, Iowa, has been involved in three nail-biters already this season, themselves. I doubt we'll see too many more Hawkeye wins by double-digits, which is almost the amount of points they'd have to win this game by to cover the number. The fact is, Iowa is not winning by wide margins because they don't have the offense to do so. They're averaging just 24.8 ppg on 362.2 total yards per game. The Hawkeyes are gaining just 3.92 yards per carry, and QB Ricky Stanzi is taking a lot of hits. The junior signal-caller has been sacked 12 times this season, while tossing just seven TDs with half-a-dozen interceptions. Stanzi is averaging just 6.61 pypa, completing just over 17 passes per game. Iowa is the type of team that grinds it out, for the most part. And they haven't faced a play-maker like Michigan QB Tate Forcier, who almost single-handedly led the Wolverines in their late-game charge before losing to the Spartans in OT. Michigan is averaging 34 ppg on the season, and while the defense does have its holes, the Hawkeye offense is not the type to take full advantage. I expect a relatively low scoring game that goes right to the wire, making the points well worth taking. I'm playing Michigan, plus the points on Saturday.
Teddy Covers
Alabama @ Mississippi
PICK: Alabama -4.5
Please indulge me for a moment, as we go back in time to last December, when undefeated Alabama was playing one loss Florida in the SEC championship game. ‘Bama was a double digit underdog in that game, but they led the mighty Gators after three quarters, just 15 minutes away from playing for the national title. Those final 15 minutes weren’t pretty for the Tide. A crucial third down stop was negated by a face mask penalty, and Tim Tebow took advantage, leading the Gators on the final two scoring drives of the day in a 31-20 Florida victory.
My point is this – there’s really not much difference between the ‘juggernaut’ defending national champs and this Alabama team. It hasn’t taken Nick Saban very long to build ‘Bama back into national title contention on a yearly basis. ‘Bama’s defense has been nothing short of spectacular, holding Virginia Tech, Arkansas and Kentucky to a combined 710 total yards of total offense. The Crimson Tide offense is just as good – only three turnovers in more than 350 snaps this year; a near perfect balance between the run and the pass; and a bevy of top notch skill position talent.
Ole Miss has played three games against FBS competition this year and they haven’t looked good in any of them. Their opening day win at Memphis was far closer than the final score indicated; they lost outright at South Carolina, and much ballyhooed quarterback Jevon Snead threw three interceptions against a mediocre Vanderbilt defense last week. This offense isn’t likely to click against the best ‘D’ they’ve faced yet, and the Rebels defensive shortcomings will be on fully display against the best ‘O’ they’ve faced this year as well. Battle tested ‘Bama has won each of their last five true SEC road games by six points or more, including wins at Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Arkansas; a trend that should continue with relative ease on Saturday. 2* Take Alabama.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA +3.5
Oregon has been at home 4 weeks in a row, rattling off 4 straight wins. I was really only impressed by the win over Cal during that stretch. Now it faces the tough task of heading out on the road after a long home stand and I fear this one has letdown written all over it for the Ducks. UCLA is greatly improved, and it will be hungry to get right back in the win column after enduring its first loss of the season to Stanford last week. The key here is how well UCLA's defense has played this season and also how tough the Bruins have played the Ducks. Oregon has been favored against UCLA each of the last 2 seasons and the Bruins have covered the spread in both meetings. Last season, UCLA had no business being on the same field with the Ducks, but it played Oregon to a 7-point game on the road as a 20.5-point dog. The season before, Oregon came to L.A. as a 2-point favorite and the Bruins shut out the Ducks 16-0. Oregon has not won five straight games since 2005 and that is going to be a difficult task with a banged up QB (Jeremiah Masoli). So much of Oregon's offense relies on his running ability and his banged up knee is going to keep him from being as effective a runner, if he can even go. I also can't help but mention that the Bruins are 17-5 ATS at home in Pac-10 play the last 5 seasons and 21-6 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. Plus, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins are 75-34 ATS the last 10 years. Take UCLA and the points for 1 unit.
Tom Freese
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
Play: Georgia Tech +3
Georgia Tech is 12-3-1 ATS their last 16 games and they are 7-2-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games off an ATS win. Florida St is 3-7 ATS their last 10 October games and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 home games. The Seminoles are 1-3--2 ATS their last 6 games vs. the Yellow Jackets and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as favorites. PLAY ON GEORGIA TECH +
Jim Feist
UTEP vs. Memphis
Play: UTEP -2
UTEP’s (2-3 SU/ATS) offense is talent, and they finally busted out in a stunning 58-41 upset of Houston. The passing game has junior QB Trevor Vittatoe (3 TDs, 5 picks), plus junior WR Kris Adams and senior WR Jeff Moturi. Vittatoe has had a slow start, but threw 33 TDs a year ago on a very strong offense. The guy who was the hero Saturday was junior RB Donald Buckram, who roasted the Houston defense for 262 yards. It was his third 100+ yard game of the season, so this offense looks like it’s balanced and in sync. Memphis (1-4 SU/1-3 ATS) has all kinds of problems with injuries, terrible defense and no QB play. They got bombed by Middle Tennessee State, 31-14, giving up 436 yards. They haven’t had a running game because star RB Curtis Steele has been banged up with a bone bruise. Play UTEP!
Pro Info Sports
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Selection: 2* Texas Tech -16
Texas Tech welcomes Big XII rival Kansas State to Lubbock on Saturday for the Red Raiders Homecoming. The Red Raiders bounced back after a loss to Houston by defeating New Mexico 48 to 28 while Kansas State defeated Big XII foe Iowa State blocking an extra-point to win 24 to 23.
Kansas State will be playing their fourth road game in the last five weeks; that alone is a monumental task and now must face the wide-open offense of the Red Raiders. Defensive fatigue could be an issue late in this contest because of that schedule all being played away from Manhattan. The KSU defense has not held a single FBS opponent to less than their season average on offense, not a good sign when you are facing Texas Tech.
On the offensive side of the ball Kansas State has the lowest scoring average in the Big XII averaging just 23.6 points per game and that number falls to just 16 points per game when they face teams from the FBS. Snyder tapped QB Gregory to make the start last week instead of Coffman and he played the entire game throwing for 206 yards with a 2-1 TD/INT ratio. They will need much more out of him or Coffman if they hope to have any chance of staying with the Red Raiders offense today.
Texas Tech QB Taylor Potts sustained a concussion late in the first half of last week’s win over New Mexico. TT backup QB Steven Sheffield led Tech to touchdowns on his first four possessions while completing 16-of-22 passes for 239 yards and a 3-1 TD/INT ratio in the win over the Lobos.
Texas Tech has defeated Kansas State four straight times by an average of 25 points per game. KSU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS their last five overall versus the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has the better offensive unit and they have only allowed opponents to average 298 yards of offense when playing in Lubbock so we will back the attack of the Red Raiders here as they make it six in a row ATS versus the Wildcats.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Texas Tech Red Raiders 41 Kansas State Wildcats 20