King Creole
Southern Miss. -2 vs Louisville
In this non-conference 'Battle of the Birds', we'll take the GOLDEN variety. With some great Systems behind us, there's only one way to go.
If CURRENT year-to-date numbers are important to you, try this 2009 ATS pattern on for size:
So far this season, Non-Conference ROAD teams playing off BB SU losses (S MISS) have gone an impressive 11-2 ATS. And if these visitors are ALSO off an ATS loss in their last game (Like the Golden Eagles), then the results have improved to a PERFECT 8-0 ATS.
Southern Miss laid a ton of points in their last game, as they traveled to UAB as favs of -10.5 points… and lost outright 30-17.
In the last 6 seasons, College teams who LOST by double-digits…. As a double-digit FAVORITE… are 16-2 ATS in their next game.
Marc Lawrence
Rice vs Navy
Play: Rice
The Owls will look to pick up their initial win this season when they host the Midshipmen at Rice Stadium Saturday afternoon. After defeating Western Michigan, 38-14, in the Texas Bowl to conclude the season last year, Rice has come up empty in 2009. With Navy entering off an overtime home win over military rival Air Force and just 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in games after taking on the Falcons, look for the hungry Owls to improve to 12-3-1 ATS as a home dog against an opponent off back-to-back wins here today. Stay at home with Rice today.
Ron Raymond
Illinois +4.5 vs Michigan St.
When Michigan State Played as road team as a Favorite - During Last 5 Years - With SU Record of 1 Win 2 Lost in L3G; The Spartans are 0-5 SU in this role! Classic letdown spot for the Spartans.
John Ryan
Wisconsin vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -16
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Ohio State as they host Wisconsin set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 72% probability that Ohio State will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 1992. Play against road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival facing an opponent off a win against a conference rival. AiS shows an 85% probability that Ohio State will score between 29 and 25 points in this game. OSU is a solid 29-7 ATS (+21.3 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points since 1992. Wisconsin in a very poor role for this game noting that he is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=4.5 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take Ohio State.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -8
Tonight we go to Iowa and play on the most under rated,under the radar undefeated team in the nation. The Hawkeye's are a solid 5-0 this year led by Qb, R.Stanzi. They have played a tougher schedule than a Michigan team that is coming off a loss to a sub par Michigan.St team. That was the first road game for a Wolverine squad that opened 4-0,winning all four games against marginal teams. Last weeks defeating overtime loss sets up Michigan in a solid system that has cashed 12 of 14 times since 1990. What we want to do is play against teams who won 3 or less games last year and today come in off 1 exact loss in overtime and are playing .400 or better ball. These teams just do not bounce back the following week. Iowa has a better defense and have won and covered 7 of the last 9 times as a favorite in this range.
Tom Freese
Georgia Tech at Florida St
Prediction: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 12-3-1 ATS their last 16 games and they are 7-2-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record. The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games off an ATS win. Florida St is 3-7 ATS their last 10 October games and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 home games. The Seminoles are 1-3--2 ATS their last 6 games vs. the Yellow Jackets and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as favorites. PLAY ON GEORGIA TECH +
Joe Gaffney
Eastern Michigan vs. Central Michigan
Play: Under 54
This is somewhat of a rivalry game between two in-state schools. And as a result I expect it to be a bit harder hitting and a bit more of a “grind” than normal. But mainly I think that the Central Michigan defense is going to smother the Eastern Michigan offense. EMU recently lost do-it-all quarterback Andy Schmidt and their attack is in completely diarray. Without their quarterback, EMU will be forced to try to run the ball more and shorten this game.In the last two years there have been 108 and 93 points scored. But this year the total is still only in the 50’s? I smell something fishy. The ‘under’ is 23-10 when Eastern Michigan plays on turf and it is 5-2 when they are on the road. The ‘under’ is 16-7 when EMU is an underdog of 10.5 or more and it is 9-4 when Central Michigan is a home favorite. I dont see many points here and this one stays UNDER the total.
Alex Grosse
Alabama vs. Mississippi
Play: Mississippi +5
The Mississippi Rebels came into this year with a great deal of hype, and the air came out of that balloon a couple of Thursday nights ago when they dropped one at South Carolina. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been their usually dominant selves, rolling through just about everyone in their path.
So why are we on Ole Miss, here? It’s a good spot for the Rebels, who have had an extra week to prepare. They’re playing in Oxford, where they have traditionally given Alabama lots of trouble. The Tide hasn’t covered a number at Ole Miss in ten years, and Houston Nutt has been tough through his first two years with the Rebels. Ole Miss has yet to lose a game by more than 7 points under Nutt, and their offense provides some interesting challenges.
Ole Miss has seen its share of troubles this year, but it looks like they’re finally healthy. From the swine flu to some injury issues, they haven’t had much of a chance to play at full strength. They’ll get a chance to prove themselves in a game that they absolutely have to have on Saturday, and five points is just too many in a game that will come down to a field goal.
EZWINNERS
Fresno State Bulldogs @ Hawaii Warriors
Play: Fresno State Bulldogs -10
The Bulldogs 1-3 record is a bit deceiving. Fresno's three losses are against teams (Wisconsin, Boise State and Cincinnati) that are a combined 15-0 coming into this weekend. The Bulldogs played well in all three of those games and actually won the yardage and first down battle but came up short on the scoreboard. Hawaii has a very young defense and they are dealing with some injuries. The Warriors allowed Louisiana Tech to rush for 352 yards in their last game and they are in for a long game against a Fresno State team that averages 263 rushing yards per game. On offense the Warriors high powered passing might not be able to match scores with Fresno as the Warriors will be without starting quarterback Greg Alexander who injured his knee last week against Louisiana Tech. Hawaii might be the team suffering from jetlag as this is their first game on the island in over a month while the Bulldogs had bye last week. Lay the points!
Dwayne Bryant
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Pick: Florida State -2.5 -120
I like the situation the Seminoles are in tonight. Since their rout of BYU, FSU has dropped games at South Florida and Boston College. Now they come home and should be ready to roll. With all the talk about Bobby Bowden stepping down after the season, I expect him to have his team ready and I expect them to answer the bell in front of a rowdy home crowd. Tech was on the road last week and needed a +4 turnover margin to beat Mississippi State by 11. They were +3 the week before that in a win over UNC. Time for the tables to turn. Buy this down to -2.5 if you must because 3 is a huge key number in football.
Jimmy Moore
Indiana @ Virginia
Pick: Indiana +7
Virginia has been a double digit dog in all of their lined games so far this season and now they are laying at TD to an Indiana team that gave Michigan all they could handle and only failed to cover by 1 point against Ohio State? That doesn't make much sense to me especially with Indiana having easily covered their 2 road games so far this season. Take the points with Indiana.
Brian Graves
Michigan vs. Iowa
Pick: Iowa -8
The Hawkeyes are a very good team that only plays well when they think the stakes are big. That is proven by their near loss to Northern Iowa and last week's showing against Arkansas St. Michigan made a valiant comeback last week, but that game showed the flaws that the Wolverines have. Their defense is suspect at best and their QB rotation is still very young and will have problems against a top flight defense on the road in a National TV game. Turnovers will be key in this game and I see the Wolverines committing some and Iowa playing close to the vest knowing that their defense will win the game. The Hawkeyes also have a significant edge in special teams that will create good field position for them and poor position for Michigan. Take Iowa to move one step closer to their Nov. 14th showdown in Columbus with a 27-9 win!
SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(1) Florida (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at (4) LSU (5-0, 2-3 ATS)
The marquee game of the week takes place under the lights at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, where fourth-ranked LSU hosts SEC rival and top-ranked Florida, which may have to go without star quarterback Tim Tebow.
The Gators have been idle since a 41-7 rout of Kentucky on Sept. 26, jumping out to a 31-0 first-quarter lead and easily cashing as a 20½-point road chalk. Florida lost Tebow to a serious concussion in the victory, and although the former Heisman Trophy winner was cleared to practice earlier this week, his status for tonight won’t be decided until game time. If Tebow can’t go, sophomore John Brantley (4-for-6, 30 yards, 1 TD, no INTs vs. Kentucky) will get the nod.
One week after needing a miraculous goal-line stand in the waning moments of a 30-26 win at Mississippi State, LSU went to Georgia and rallied for a 20-13 victory as a 3½-point road pup. The Tigers saw a 12-7 lead turn into a 13-12 deficit with 1:09 to play, but they got a 33-yard TD run from Charles Scott just 23 seconds later, followed by a successful two-point conversion, to steal the victory. LSU finished with 368 total yards (156 rushing) and allowed just 274 yards (45 rushing).
Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 14 in a row, all by double digits, and it is 11-1 ATS in lined action during this stretch. Meanwhile, LSU is riding a six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS) since a 38-3 thrashing of Georgia Tech in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl, and the Tigers have won 32 consecutive home games played at night.
These rivals have split the last four meetings, with the Gators cashing each time. Last year in Gainesville, Florida cruised 51-21 as a 6½-point home favorite, finishing with a 475-321 edge in total offense (265-80 on the ground). In their last trip to Baton Rouge, the Gators suffered a heartbreaking 28-24 loss, blowing a 24-14 fourth-quarter lead as LSU converted five straight fourth-down attempts on their two late TD drives. However, Florida did easily cover as an eight-point underdog, improving to 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to the Bayou.
Also in this rivalry, the visitor is on a 6-2 ATS roll, and the pup has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Gators, who opened up with cupcakes Charleston Southern (62-3 win) and Troy (56-6), are putting up 45.5 points and 526.2 total yards per game, including 307.5 rushing ypg (7 yards per tote). By comparison, LSU is averaging 27 points but just 322 yards per outing, including 135.8 rushing ypg (3.7 ypc).
Florida also rates the edge on defense, yielding just 7.2 points and 212.8 total yards per game, including just 120 passing yards per contest and 3.9 yards per pass attempt. LSU has been stout on the stop side, too, giving up averages of 14.8 points and 320.8 yards (116 rushing ypg, 3.3 ypc).
In addition to its ongoing 11-1 ATS roll overall, Florida is on further pointspread tears of 23-7 overall, 11-1 on the highway, 21-7 as a favorite, 9-0 as a road chalk, 13-3 in SEC action (8-1 last nine), 5-1 in October and 17-4 against teams with a winning record.
Despite last Saturday’s upset at Georgia, LSU has still failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 regular-season games and is on further ATS slides of 8-19-1 overall, 3-12-1 at Tiger Stadium, 8-21-1 in SEC play, 2-5 in October, 2-4 as an underdog, 3-6 versus winning teams and 0-4 after a non-cover. The one positive: The Tigers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.
Florida has stayed low in four of its last five games overall, but otherwise Urban Meyer’s squad is on “over” rolls of 11-5 in conference play, 5-1 in October, 14-6 after a spread-cover, 15-5 against winning teams and 20-9 when playing on grass. The over for LSU is on runs of 17-9 overall, 13-5 in conference play, 5-2 in October and 4-1 as a home underdog.
On the flip side, 10 of the last 13 clashes in this rivalry have stayed below the total, including five of the last seven at LSU.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Michigan (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at (12) Iowa (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
The Hawkeyes look to run their winning streak to 10 in a row when they resume Big Ten play by hosting Michigan at Kinnick Stadium.
Iowa jumped out to a 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter against Arkansas State last week, then completely lost interest and held on for a 24-21 victory, falling way short as a 21½-point home favorite. The Hawkeyes did have a 420-286 advantage in total offense, but QB Richard Stanzi offset a 296-yard, three-TD passing day with two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. During its nine-game winning streak, Iowa has surrendered an average of just 13 points per game, allowing more than 17 points just twice.
After climbing back into the national rankings with four straight home wins to start 2009, Michigan quickly slid back out of the Top 25 after last week’s 26-20 overtime loss at Michigan State as a four-point road underdog. Freshman QB Tate Forcier (17-for-32, 223 yards) tossed two TD passes with four minutes to play – the second with two seconds remaining – to help the Wolverines rally from a 20-6 deficit and force overtime. However, Forcier then threw an interception in the end zone on Michigan’s first overtime possession, and Michigan State turned around and scored the game-winner on a 23-yard run. The Wolverines were outgained 417-251, including 197-28 on the ground.
These schools last met on the gridiron in 2006, with Michigan prevailing 20-6 as a 12½-point home favorite. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings and they’ve cashed in the last two – including a 23-20 overtime victory as a three-point pup in their last trip to Iowa City in 2005 – after Iowa had gone 8-0 ATS in the previous eight meetings (all as an underdog). In fact, prior to Michigan’s 2006 rout as a home chalk, the underdog had been on a 9-0 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when catching between 3½ and 10 points, but otherwise Rich Rodriguez’s team is in pointspread ruts of 5-12 overall, 1-5 on the highway, 0-4 in Big Ten play, 0-5 in October, 1-5 after a SU defeat, 2-5 as an underdog and 2-5 versus winning teams.
Iowa had a 5-0 ATS run halted when it failed to cover against Arkansas State, but the Hawkeyes are still on positive ATS runs of 37-17 at home, 6-2 in conference play, 4-1 in October, 7-0 against winning teams, 4-1 as a favorite and 10-2 when laying between 3½ and 10 points.
For Michigan, the over is on upticks of 7-2 on the road (all as an underdog), 7-3 in conference play and 4-1 on grass. The over is also 3-1-1 in Iowa’s last five at home and 3-1-1 in its last five in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA and OVER
Boston College (4-1, 3-1 ATS) at (5) Virginia Tech (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Hokies are shooting for their fifth-straight victory when their ACC rivals from Boston College come calling in Blacksburg in this rematch of the last two conference championship games.
Boston College upset Florida State 28-21 at home a week ago as a four-point underdog for its second straight ACC victory at home, the first being a 27-24 upset of Wake Forest as a one-point chalk. However, in their only road game this season, the Eagles stunk up the field at Clemson on Sept. 19, falling 25-7 as nine-point underdogs.
Since their opening-season 34-24 loss to Alabama as a six-point underdog, the Hokies have been playing solid defense, giving up just 14.5 points a game. They beat Duke 34-26 a week ago in Durham, N.C., gaining 477 yards but falling short as a 17-point favorite. The last time Virginia Tech was at home, it blew out ACC rival Miami of Florida 31-7 as a 2½-point home ‘dog, rushing for 272 yards with RB Ryan Williams amassing 150 yards and two touchdowns.
Boston College has won the last two regular-season meetings (SU and ATS), only to fall in each of the last two ACC title games (0-2 ATS). Last year, Virginia Tech lost 28-23 in the regular-season meeting as a three-point ‘dog, but routed the Eagles 30-12 in the title game as a one-point favorite. Dating to 2000 when both squads were in the Big East, Boston College is just 4-6 SU against the Hokies, but the Eagles have gotten the cash in eight of the last 11 overall and six of the last eight in Blacksburg.
The Hokies are on ATS streaks of 28-12 in ACC action, 6-1 against teams with winning records and 4-1 following a non-cover, however they are on slides of 0-5 in October and 3-8 as a favorite.
Boston College is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 after an ATS win, but the Eagles are on positive ATS streaks of 15-6 as an underdog, 12-4 as a road pup and 7-3 in October.
The Eagles have topped the total in eight of their last 10 ACC games and four straight October contests, but the under is on runs of 10-4 on the road and 14-5 on grass. Virginia Tech has topped the total in five of its last seven October games, but the Hokies are on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 at home, 5-2 in ACC games, 7-2 as home favorites and 7-2 when favored by 10½ points or more at home. In this rivalry, the “under” is 4-2 in the last six battles overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Stanford (4-1 SU and ATS) at Oregon State (3-2, 1-3 ATS)
After three straight home wins, Stanford travels to Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore., to face the Beavers in a Pac-10 matchup.
The Cardinal destroyed San Jose State (42-17 as an 18½-point favorite) and Washington (34-14 as a 9½-point chalk) before beating UCLA a week ago 24-16 as a five-point choice. Stanford is averaging 31.2 points and 410 yards per game (221.8 rushing ypg),while the defense is yielding only 16.8 ppg and 324.8 ypg (114.2 rushing ypg). In fact, Jim Harbaugh’s team is averaging two more yards per carry than its opponents (5.5-3.5).
Oregon State went to Tempe, Ariz., Last week and beat Arizona State 28-17 as five-point underdogs, ending a three-game ATS slide and two-game SU losing streak. The Beavers have dropped their last two home games, losing 28-18 to Cincinnati on Sept. 18 as a one-point home ‘dog, then dropping a 37-32 decision to Arizona on Sept. 26 as a 2½-point favorite.
The Cardinal took last year’s contest 36-28 at home, cashing as 2½-point favorites, but it was just their third win in the last 10 years against the Beavers. Prior to last year, Oregon State had been dominating this series, going 9-2 SU and ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS in Corvallis.
Stanford is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games and 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a road ‘dog, however it has cashed in four of its last five overall and six of its last seven in Pac-10 play.
Even after their three-game ATS slide this season, the Beavers remain on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 10-4 overall, 9-3 at home, 30-10 in October, 7-2 in conference games, 44-18 following an ATS win, 35-15-1 as a home favorite and 9-3 after a SU win.
For Stanford, the over is on runs of 8-2 as a ‘dog and 6-1-1 as a road ‘dog, but the Cardinal are also on “under” streaks of 42-18-1 in Pac-10 action, 26-12-1 on the highway and 23-5 in October. Meanwhile, the Beavers are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 5-2 following a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry the under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Corvallis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER
(3) Alabama (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at (20) Ole Miss (3-1, 2-1 ATS)
Alabama goes after its sixth straight win to begin the season and its sixth straight win over Ole Miss when it hits the road for the second week in a row for an SEC West clash with the Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
The Crimson Tide continued their impressive start to the season with last Saturday’s 38-20 rout at Kentucky, barely cashing as a 16½-point road favorite. After outgaining their first three opponents by margins of 343, 302, 336 and 171, the Tide had “just” a 352-301 yardage edge against the Wildcats, but the defense forced four turnovers and the offense committed none.
Ole Miss rebounded from an ugly 16-10 loss at South Carolina – a defeat that knocked the team out of the Top 5 in the rankings – with last Saturday’s 23-7 rout of Vanderbilt as a 10-point road favorite. After managing just 248 yards, including 109 passing, against South Carolina, the Rebels produced 397 yards against the Commodores and surrendered just 240. QB Jevan Snead had an up-and-down game, going 19-for-34 for 237 yards and three TDs, but he also threw three interceptions.
The Rebels went to Tuscaloosa last October and put a scare into then-unbeaten Alabama, rallying from a 24-3 halftime deficit by scoring all 17 second-half points, only to come up short 24-20 as an 11-point road underdog. The Crimson Tide have won the last five meetings dating to 2004, but Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS in the last four (all as an underdog), with the four contests decided by a total of 13 points. The host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, with Alabama going 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Oxford.
Going back to the start of last season, the Crimson Tide have won 17 consecutive regular-season games, with all but three being double-digit blowouts. In fact, including losses to Florida in the SEC title game and Utah in the Sugar Bowl, 17 of the Tide’s last 19 games have been decided by double digits. Meanwhile, since falling at Alabama last year, Ole Miss has won nine of its last 10, with the last eight wins being by 10 points or more.
‘Bama is in the midst of several positive ATS runs, including 9-3 overall, 6-1 on the road, 9-2 as a favorite, 7-1 as a road chalk (4-0 last four), 6-1 in SEC games and 8-2 after a straight-up win. The Rebels have cashed in eight straight games from the underdog role and eight straight against Top 10-ranked teams, and they’re on additional pointspread upticks of 16-5 overall, 3-0 at home, 6-2 as a home pup, 21-10 in October and 6-1 after a SU win.
The Crimson Tide have topped the total in five of six overall (all as a favorite), but otherwise they are on “under” runs of 12-5 in October and 4-1 in SEC play. Ole Miss carries nothing but “under” trends, including 7-3 overall, 36-17 in SEC play and 5-1 in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER
(22) Georgia Tech (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at Florida State (2-3, 1-3 ATS)
Florida State hopes to bounce back from a pair of upset losses and put aside speculation about the future of legendary coach Bobby Bowden as the Yellow Jackets visit Doak Campbell Stadium for an ACC contest.
Bowden’s 34th season with the Seminoles has been a rocky one. It started with a last-second, season-opening 38-34 home loss to Miami, Fla., followed by an embarrassingly close 19-9 home win over Division I-AA Jacksonville State. Florida State then went to No. 9 BYU and rolled 54-28 as an 8½-point road underdog, only to come back and lose the last two weeks to South Florida (17-7 as a 14-point home chalk) and Boston College (28-21 as a four-point road favorite). The ‘Noles are averaging 27 points and 402.8 total yards per game, but the defense is yielding 24 points and 407.4 ypg.
Georgia Tech is coming off two impressive victories, first toppling ACC rival North Carolina 24-7 as a three-point home favorite, then knocking off Mississippi State 42-31 as a 5½-point road chalk in a non-conference contest last Saturday. The Yellow Jackets, whose triple-option attack is averaging 252.2 rushing ypg (4.8 per carry), haven’t won three in a row since a four-game win streak from late September to mid-October last year, a stretch of 11 games.
Georgia Tech snapped a 12-game losing streak to FSU that dated to 1975 with last year’s 31-28 home win, pushing as a three-point favorite as the Seminoles lost a fumble in the end zone on second-and-goal from the 3-yard line with 45 seconds to play. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6 SU all-time in Tallahassee, including a 14-13 loss as a massive 24-point underdog in their last visit in 2003. Georgia Tech is 3-1-2 ATS in the last six clashes going back to 1999 (all as a pup).
The Yellow Jackets are on ATS runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-2-1 against losing teams, 4-1-1 in October, 5-2-1 as a road underdog and 12-3-1 when catching three points or fewer. Florida State has failed to cash in seven of 10 October contests and is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite but is otherwise on pointspread surges of 6-1-1 after a SU defeat, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 8-2 as a favorite of three points or less and 4-0 when laying three or less at home.
For Georgia Tech, the under is on stretches of 5-2 on the road, 8-3 in ACC action, 28-10-1 as an underdog, 20-7 as a road pup, 8-0 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 20-6-2 in October. Conversely, the Seminoles are riding “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-2 in conference, 15-6 after a SU defeat and 11-3 in October. Finally, the under is on a 3-1 run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
Wisconsin (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at (9) Ohio State (4-1 SU and ATS)
Unable to crack the Top 25 despite a perfect 5-0 start, the Badgers will try once more to earn some respect when they head to the Horseshoe to meet Big Ten powerhouse Ohio State.
Wisconsin held off Minnesota 31-28 as a three-point road underdog, and it did so the old-fashioned way, grinding out 295 of its 454 yards on the ground while limiting the Gophers to just 57 rushing yards (328 total yards). Both teams were sloppy with the football, each committing three turnovers. Take away a 44-14 home rout of Division I-AA Wofford, and the Badgers’ other four wins have come by point margins of 8, 3, 8 and 3 points.
Ohio State has made a major statement since suffering a last-minute 18-15 home loss to USC, bouncing back with three dominating performances against Toledo (38-0), Illinois (30-0) and Indiana (33-14), going 3-0 ATS while outgaining all three by a total of 610 yards. Last week at Indiana, the Buckeyes jumped out to a 33-7 lead before allowing a touchdown on the final play of the game, but still cashing as a 17½-point road favorite.
QB Terrelle Pryor has stepped up his play the last three weeks, passing for 503 yards with seven TDs and three INTs.
Ohio State has won and covered the last two in this rivalry, including last year’s 20-17 road win as a one-point favorite, with Pryor scoring the game-winner on an 11-yard run with 1:06 to play. Before that, Wisconsin had gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Buckeyes from 2001-2004, all as an underdog. In fact, prior to OSU winning the last two as a favorite, the underdog had cashed in seven straight meetings.
Also in this rivalry, the visitor is on a 7-3 ATS run, with Wisconsin cashing in four of its last five trips to the Horseshoe.
The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six Big Ten contests, but they’re 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on the highway and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road pup. Ohio State has cashed in its last two home games after going 1-7 ATS in the previous eight in Columbus. Jim Tressel’s squad is also on pointspread rolls of 4-0 overall, 24-8 in Big Ten action, 19-9-1 as a favorite in Big Ten home games, 35-16 as a favorite, 5-1 when laying more than 10 points, 4-0 versus winning teams and 12-4 in October.
Wisconsin’s “over” runs include 3-0 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 in conference and 4-0 versus teams with a winning record. The over is also 3-1-1 in Ohio State’s last five league contests, but the under is 3-0-1 in its last four overall and 9-3-1 in its last 13 October affairs. Lastly, five of the last seven Badgers-Buckeyes battles have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE
(15) Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-2 ATS) at Texas A&M (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
Texas A&M looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season – and a humiliating one at that – when it welcomes the Cowboys to College Station for a Big 12 South matchup.
Since a stunning 45-35 home loss to Houston as a 16-point favorite on Sept. 12, Oklahoma State has rebounded with easy wins over Rice (41-24, falling short as a 32½-point favorite) and Grambling (56-6 in a non-lined game). This is the Cowboys’ first road game of the season, and they’ll have to play without star WR Dez Bryant, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA this week. With Bryant and QB Zac Robinson (602 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) on the field, Oklahoma State’s offense was getting progressively better each week scoring 24, 35, 41 and 56 points.
After flattening three overmatched opponents (New Mexico, Utah State, UAB) at home to start the season – winning by a combined 135-54 – the Aggies met their match last week at Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, losing 47-19 to Arkansas as a two-point underdog. Despite the lopsided score, Texas A&M actually had a 10-0 lead and ended up outgaining the Razorbacks 458-438, including 163-113 on the ground, but the Aggies lost three turnovers, one of which was returned 85 yards for a touchdown.
The Cowboys snapped a four-game losing skid to Texas A&M last year, rolling 56-28 and cashing as a 26-point home favorite. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Oklahoma State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall and has failed to cover in four straight against teams with a winning record, but the Cowboys have covered in four straight lined games in October. Meanwhile, the Aggies have failed to get the money in five of seven overall, eight of 13 at home, eight of 10 as an underdog and five of six against winning squads, but they’re 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 after a SU defeat.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these schools, 8-2-1 in A&M’s last 11 conference games and 4-1 in A&M’s last five in October. However, eight of Oklahoma State’s last nine on the highway have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(13) Oregon (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at UCLA (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Ducks hit the road for the first time since an embarrassing season-opening loss at Boise State when they travel down the Pacific coast to the Rose Bowl for a Pac-10 clash with UCLA.
Oregon has rebounded nicely for the Boise State debacle, ripping off four straight home victories, including pummeling Pac-10 foes Cal (42-3 as a 5½-point underdog) and Washington State (52-6 as a 35-point chalk) the last two weeks. In outscoring those two conference opponents 94-9, the Ducks rolled up a combined yardage advantage of 1,038-365, including 553-184 on the ground.
After a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS non-conference campaign, the Bruins opened Pac-10 play at Stanford last Saturday and fell 24-16 as a five-point underdog. UCLA’s stout defense, which surrendered a total of 38 points and an average of 251 yards through its first three contests, gave up season-highs of 372 total yards and 174 rushing yards, contributing to the Bruins’ nine-minute time-of-possession deficit.
The Ducks may have to go with untested junior QB Nate Costa (21 career pass attempts) in this game, as starter Jeremiah Masoli injured his knee in the rout of Washington State and missed much of practice this week. Costa is expected to start, with Masoli seeing only limited action, if any. Meanwhile, UCLA is expected to get starting QB Kevin Prince back after the freshman missed the last two games waiting for a broken jaw to heal. If Prince still isn’t ready, Kevin Craft (60.3 percent completion rate, 390 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) will start again.
These teams have alternated wins and losses the last four years, with the Bruins going 3-1 ATS (2-0 ATS at home). Last year in Eugene, Ore., the Ducks eked out a 31-24 victory, but UCLA cashed easily as a 19-point underdog. Oregon had a 323-63 rushing advantage, but the Bruins held the ball for nearly 38 of the 60 minutes. The ‘dog is 6-1 ATS and the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and prior to failing to cover in their last two trips to Pasadena, the Ducks had been on a 5-0 ATS roll when visiting UCLA.
The Ducks are riding ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in Pac-10 play, 13-5 in October, 6-0 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams. UCLA also sports several pointspread runs, including 4-1 overall, 25-8-1 at home since 2004, 21-8 as an underdog, 17-5 as a home ‘dog (10-2 last 12 as a home pup), 16-7 in Pac-10 action, 20-6 after a SU defeat, 15-5 after a non-cover and 16-5 versus teams with a winning record. However, the Bruins have failed to cash in five of their last six when catching between 3½ to 10 points.
Oregon is on “over” stretches of 4-1 in conference, 9-1-2 as a favorite and 10-4-1 as a road chalk. Conversely, UCLA has nothing but “under” trends, including 7-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1-1 in October, 20-7-1 in conference, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 8-2 as a home pup. Finally, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry, though the winner has scored at least 30 points in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(17) Auburn (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Arkansas (2-2, 1-2 ATS)
The unbeaten Tigers go after their second straight SEC road victory when they visit Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville to battle Arkansas.
After four consecutive double-digit home wins to start the season, Auburn went to Tennessee last week and took a 26-3 lead into the fourth quarter en route to a 26-22 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. After scoring 37-plus points in their first four wins, the Tigers managed just two touchdowns against the Vols, but still rolled up 459 total yards (224 rushing). Auburn’s new-look offense is producing 41.4 points and 512.8 yards per outing (253.8 rushing ypg).
The Razorbacks bounced back from a pair of tough SEC defeats to Georgia (52-41) and Alabama (35-7) with a 47-19 thrashing of Texas A&M as a two-point favorite in a neutral-site non-conference game at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. Take away a seven-point, 254-yard disappointment at Alabama, and Bobby Petrino’s high-octane offense is putting up 45.3 points and 503.3 yards per game, including 375.3 passing ypg.
Both offenses are piloted by quarterbacks who are enjoying outstanding seasons. The Tigers’ Chris Todd is completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 1,230 yards with 12 TDs and just one INT, while Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, a transfer from Michigan, has thrown for 1,148 yards (55 percent completion rate) with 11 TDs against just two INTs.
The visitor has won and covered four straight meetings in this rivalry and is 6-1 SU and ATS dating to 2002, with the Tigers getting the money in their last three trips to Fayetteville. Last year, the Razorbacks went to Auburn and prevailed 25-22 as a 16½-point road pup, making the ‘dog 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes.
The Tigers ended ATS slides of 0-5 on the road and 0-4 in October with last week’s upset at Tennessee, but they’re still just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 SEC contests. On the bright side, Auburn is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0-1 as a favorite of three points or less and 20-9-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Arkansas is on ATS runs of 4-0 in October, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 16-7-1 as a home pup and 4-1 when catching three points or less at home, but the Hogs have failed to get the money in four of their last five SEC battles.
The under is 6-1 in Auburn’s last seven road games, 4-1 in its last five conference contests and 4-1 in Arkansas’ last five in October, but otherwise the “over” is on streaks of 4-1 for the Tigers overall, 5-0 for the Tigers as a favorite, 10-4 for the Razorbacks at home and 4-1 for the Razorbacks in SEC action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(10) TCU (4-0, 2-1 ATS) at Air Force (3-2, 1-3 ATS)
TCU puts a six-game winning streak on the line when it finally begins the Mountain West Conference portion of its schedule with a trip to Colorado Springs, Colo., for a meeting with Air Force at Falcon Stadium.
The Horned Frogs started slowly against SMU a week ago, leading just 12-7 at the half, but they exploded over the final 30 minutes and cruised to a 39-14 win, coming up just short as a 28-point home chalk. TCU finished with 418 yards and allowed 224, and as usual, it owned a massive rushing edge, gaining 229 yards on the ground while holding SMU to minus-16 yards on 18 attempts. For the season, the Frogs are averaging 220 rushing ypg (4.7 per carry) and allowing an NCAA-low 47 rushing ypg (1.8 per carry), and they’ve outrushed each of their last eight opponents, including six by 146 yards or more.
TCU has surrendered 16 points or less in 11 consecutive Division I-A games and 15 of 16 since the start of the 2008 season. Take away a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and the Frogs, who are 15-2 SU and (10-5 ATS in lined action) since the start of last year, have given up just 21 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008, and they’ve allowed 10 points or less nine times during this 17-game stretch.
Air Force is coming off last Saturday’s 16-13 overtime loss to fellow service-academy Navy, falling short as a 2½-point road underdog to drop to 1-5 ATS in its last six lined games. Like TCU, the Falcons do the majority of their offensive damage on the ground, and they rank second nationally in rushing at 292 ypg (4.6 per carry). Air Force’s defense is also playing very well, giving up 12.6 points and 260 yards per contest.
TCU’s current six-game winning streak began with a 44-10 rout of Air Force last November, cashing as a 20½-point home favorite. The Horned Frogs are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings (3-1 SU and ATS this decade), and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last seven clashes dating to 1987. Finally, the host is 6-1 SU and ATS since ’87, and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last six.
The Horned Frogs are riding ATS hot streaks of 23-9-1 in non-conference play, 26-12 as a favorite (12-5 last 17 as a chalk), 14-6 on grass and 6-0 after a non-cover. Air Force has covered in 11 of 15 in Mountain West play and eight of 11 at home, but in addition to their 1-5 ATS slide overall, the Falcons have failed to cash in five straight as an underdog and five straight against winning teams.
The under is 5-2 in TCU’s last seven road games, 4-1-1 in its last six in October, 9-1 in its last 10 after a non-cover, 15-5-2 in its last 22 versus teams with a winning record and 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five overall. Conversely, four of the last five TCU-Air Force clashes have soared over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
NLDS
L.A. Dodgers (2-0) at St. Louis (0-2)
After a shocking walk-off victory in Game 2, the Dodgers go for their second consecutive National League Divisional Series sweep when they send Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.46 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium opposite the Cardinals’ Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49 ERA).
Los Angeles managed just a single run on an Andre Ethier home run through eight innings on Thursday against St. Louis pitcher Adam Wainwright and entered the bottom of the ninth trailing 2-1. Then, with two outs and nobody on base, Cardinals leftfielder Matt Holliday misplayed a routine, game-ending line drive into a two-base error, and the Dodgers followed with a walk, an RBI single to tie the game, another walk and a line-drive single – all off St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin – to steal the 3-2 victory and take a commanding 2-0 lead in this best-of-5 series.
L.A., which also upset St. Louis 5-3 in Game 1, has now won four straight games dating to Saturday, allowing a total of just eight runs, and the win streak follows a five-game losing skid. The Dodgers are also on positive streaks of 9-3 against right-handed starters, 7-1 as an underdog (4-0 last four as a pup), 8-3 versus the N.L. Central and 24-8 on Saturday. Also, Joe Torre’s troops, who swept the Cubs in the divisional round last October, have won five straight NLDS contests. On the downside, Los Angeles has lost four straight road games overall and six of its last eight playoff roadies.
Going back to the regular season, the Cardinals have dropped five straight games and they’re 7-16 since Sept. 11, including 3-9 at home. They’re also in ruts of 0-4 as a home favorite, 1-5 against right-handed starters, 1-4 after an off day and 1-4 against the N.L. West. On the positive end of things, Tony LaRussa’s club has still won four straight postseason games at Busch Stadium and is also 8-2 in its last 10 on Saturday, 12-4 in its last 16 NLDS contests and 7-1 in its last eight NLDS home games.
Despite being down 0-2 in this series, St. Louis remains 5-4 against Los Angeles this season and 11-6 in 17 meetings dating to 2007. Going back further, the Cardinals are 36-18 in the last 54 games overall against the Dodgers and an even more impressive 20-6 in the last 26 clashes at Busch Stadium.
Padilla went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in six starts with the Dodgers after being let go by Texas, and the Dodgers won six of those seven games, including all four on the road, where the veteran right-hander was 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA with L.A. In his final regular-season start Sunday against the Rockies, Padilla allowed a run on four hits with 10 strikeouts and no walks in just five innings, winning 5-3. Padilla, who is making his first playoff appearance today, was very consistent with his innings for the Dodgers, pitching exactly five innings four times, 5 1/3 innings once and six innings twice, and only once did he throw more than 97 pitches.
Padilla’s career versus the Cardinals is limited to seven appearances (three starts) covering 22 innings, and he’s 2-1 with a 3.68. In his only career start at Busch, Padilla pitched the Phillies to a 4-0 victory in 2002, scatting four hits (no walks) in eight innings.
After a brilliant first five months of the campaign, Pineiro struggled after September 1, going 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA in seven starts, with the Cardinals losing five of his last six outings, including all three games at home. Prior to September, the right-hander 19 quality starts in his first 26 trips the mound, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 19 games.
Pineiro finished the year 7-6 in 15 starts at Busch Stadium despite a rock solid 2.87 ERA. He faced the Dodgers on July 29 at home and gave up just one run on six hits in eight innings, getting a no-decision as the Cardinals won 3-2 in 15 innings. He’s 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts versus Los Angeles (eight earned runs allowed in 21 1/3 innings). Finally, Pineiro’s postseason experience is limited to one relief appearance in 2001 with the Mariners, and he gave up one run on four hits in two innings against the Yankees.
The over is 4-0-1 in Padilla’s last five starts and 5-2 in Pineiro’s last seven outings.
The Dodgers come into Game 3 carrying “over” trends of 8-3-1 on the road, 4-0 as an underdog, 4-0-1 after a day off, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against the N.L. Central, 7-2-1 against right-handed starters, 8-2-1 versus winning teams and 6-2 in road playoff games (5-1 in the divisional round on the road). Similarly, for the Cardinals, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home, 3-0-1 against righty starters and 5-2-2 on Saturday. However, in the playoffs, St. Louis is on “under” stretches of 7-3 overall and 13-5 at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 10-5 overall dating to the start of 2008 (5-2 in the last seven), and four of the last five battles at Busch have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
Philadelphia (1-1) at Colorado (1-1)
Having captured home-field advantage with a surprising Game 2 victory in Philadelphia, the Rockies now look to take control of this best-of-5 series when they return to frigid Coors Field for Game 3. Colorado’s Jason Hammel (2-0, 4.42 ERA) will make his first-ever postseason start, while the Phillies have decided to hand the ball to veteran Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63) in a game where temperatures are expected to be below freezing.
After managing just a ninth-inning run in Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to the Phillies and Cliff Lee in Game 1, the Rockies came out swinging Thursday and got a two-run homer for catcher Yorvit Torrealba, six strong innings from starter Aaron Cook and just enough relief pitching to hold on for the 5-4 victory.
Philadelphia remains on hot streaks of 29-11 after an off day, 8-2 as an underdog (6-2 as a road pup), 8-2 against the N.L. West, 15-7 after a defeat and 7-2 in the playoffs going back to last year’s World Series title run. On the downside, the Phillies have lost six straight Saturday games.
Colorado is on positive runs of 42-16 at home, 7-2 against the N.L. East, 51-24 against right-handed starters, 38-17 as a favorite and 50-23 after a victory. They Rockies have also won four of their last five divisional playoff games (all against Philadelphia) and four straight playoff contests as a favorite, but overall, they’ve still lost five of their last six in the postseason.
The Phillies are still 5-3 against the Rockies this season (2-1 in Colorado), and since getting swept by the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS, Philadelphia has won 10 of 13 in this rivalry (four of five at Coors Field).
Martinez didn’t sign with the Phillies until early July and didn’t make his first start for the team until Aug. 12. He was especially strong in September, going 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA in five starts. The Phillies went 8-1 in Martinez’s nine trips to the mound, including 3-1 on the road, where the veteran right-hander won three of those four games despite a 5.66 ERA.
Martinez is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts) against the Rockies, but only two of those starts came recently, both last season with the Mets. First, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-1 loss at Coors Field in June 2008, then he came back three weeks later at Shea Stadium and allowed one hit and three walks in four scoreless innings, with the Mets winning 3-0. The former Cy Young winner is 6-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 13 lifetime playoff appearances (11 starts), all with Boston from 1998-2004.
Hammel had a solid first season in Colorado, appearing in 34 games (30 starts). One of those relief appearances came Sunday at the Dodgers as he pitched two scoreless innings. The 27-year-old right-hander allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, while surrendering just four runs each in the other two. He was consistent throughout the season, going 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA prior to the All-Star break and 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA in the second half.
Hammel went just 3-3 with a 5.73 ERA at Coors Field (compared with 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA on the road), but the Rockies won 11 of his 15 home starts, including 10 of the last 12. The Rockies went 4-1 in his last five starts as a favorite and 8-2 in his last 10 as a home chalk. Hammel’s only start against Philadelphia came on Aug. 9, and he pitched the Rockies to an 8-3 road win, allowing three runs on nine hits (no walks) in 6 2/3 innings.
For Philadelphia, the over is on runs of 10-2-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday and 6-1-1 after a defeat. However, in the playoffs, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 6-2 on the road and 6-1 in the divisional series. Colorado carries “over” trends of 4-1 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-1 after an off day and 4-1-1 after a win.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in nine of 13 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season, with the last five at Coors Field topping the posted number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO and OVER
Tony Mathews
Miami Ohio vs. Northwestern
Selection: Miami Ohio +18.5
While Miami Ohio is currently 0-5 this season, the RedHawks have improved offensively with redshirt freshman Zac Dysert at QB. Dysert threw for 337 yards while running for 107 in his first start against Kent State. During his second start, he threw for 291 yards while rushing for 45; this was against the highly ranked Bearcat defense. Even though the RedHawks’ defense allowed 439 yards in that game, they did keep the Bearcats below their season average which itself is promising.
As for Northwestern, the Wildcats haven’t beaten their opponents by a significant margin and they’ve had a weak schedule to boot. Even more unfortunate, the Wildcats’ running game has suffered tremendously having an average of only 66 yards over their last three games due to injured RB Stephen Simmons. Therefore, the Northwestern offense has been one dimensional with an average of more than 45 attempted passes per game.
In both conference games, the RedHawks have been highly competitive and have played some very good programs overall. With new QB Dysert at the helm, expect this game to be closer than the oddsmakers are assuming it will be.
Take Miami Ohio +18.5