Sammy Jankus
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Arizona at Washington
Play: Arizona -3.5
Steve Sarkisian’s Huskies look to be the most improved team in the country so far in 2009. They toppled mighty USC, handed Idaho its only loss, gave #4 LSU all the Tigers could handle and fell in overtime at Notre Dame, so we can excuse their lopsided loss at Stanford several weeks ago. But now U-Dub is back in Seattle and that spells big trouble for an underachieving Arizona squad playing its third straight road game. I think the WRONG TEAM is favored in tonight’s PAC 10 tussle– so your play is on ARIZONA.
Carlo Campanella
Colorado at Texas
Prediction: Texas
With only unbeaten Florida (4-0) and Alabama (5-0) in their way of a number one ranking and a possible National Championship, Texas (4-0) won't take Colorado (1-3) too lightly. In fact, Texas has now won 4 straight games in this series by an average of 35 points per game, including a 70-3 pummeling in 2005. That spells trouble for a Colorado crew that is just 2-12 in their last 14 attempts against teams ranked in the Top 25. We're not worried about laying more than 4 Touchdowns with a Texas squad that's averaging 49.5 points per game this season and hosts this match-up off their "Bye" week, as we find them at 22-7 SU when playing with a week of rest behind Head Coach Mack Brown. They should have no trouble scoring on this Colorado defense, which lost 24-35 last Thursday at West Virginia, but also allowed Toledo to score 54 points back on September 11th in their only other road battle. This is the second of back-to-back road games for a Colorado squad that has struggled on the road and is now 2-14 SU away from home, including 0-2 this year under Head Coach Hawkins. Lay the lumber with Texas, as we find Colorado at 1-12 ATS as dogs playing with revenge!
7* Play On Texas
Jr Tips
Michigan vs.Iowa
Iowa (5-0, 1-0) has won nine straight dating to last season and is is off to its best start in 14 years. The question is which Iowa team will show up Saturday night when the 12th-ranked Hawkeyes try to remain perfect against Michigan in a Big Ten matcchup at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa is undefeated through five games for the first time since 1995 and the Hawkeyes haven't won their first six contests since going 7-0 under Hayden Fry in 1985 which was also the last time Iowa was ranked higher than Michigan (4-1, 1-1) heading into their game. After beding ranked 22nd last week, Michigan dropped out of the Top 25 after falling 26-20 in overtime at Michigan State last Saturday. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings against Iowa, but this will be the first matchup since 2006. The Hawkeyes last beat in 2003. Iowa has looked solid and balanced against top teams like Penn st although they loooked inconsistent this year in a 17-16 season-opening win over Northern Iowa and last week's 24-21 victory over Arkansas State. After forcing four turnovers and holding the Nittany Lions to 307 total yards, the Hawkeyes almost squandered a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against Arkansas State. Quarterback Rick Stanzi threw for a season-high 296 yards and three touchdowns and the Hawkeyes rushed for 124 yards, 15 yards below their season average.The Hawkeyes' defense has been strong enough to keep them undefeated as the unit ranks third in the league allowing 13.4 points and second with 14 forced turnovers. Iowa has not allowed a rushing touchdown in 33 quarters dating to last season. Iowa will face a young, but proficient Michigan offense that should be hungry after being held to a season-low 251 yards including 28 rushing at Michigan State last week. Michigan's athletic freshman quarterback Tate Forcier's scrambling abilities are similar to Northern Iowa's Pat Grace and Arkansas State's Corey Leonard, the two quartebacks who've had success against Iowa this season. Michigan's Forcier is third in the Big Ten with a 142.69 passer rating and has rushed for 154 yards and he can get out of trouble with his feet, and hurt you with his throwing. Forcier, who led the Wolverines to comeback victories over Notre Dame and Indiana rallied his team with two fourth-quarter touchdowns before throwing a key interception in overtime against the Spartans. Forciers 17 of 32 for 223 yards last week as the Wolverines are second in the conference averaging 34.0 points per contest. Michigan has won six of its last seven games at Iowa City and their offense will be able to move the ball and score enough points to beat Iowa. Iowa defense has been consistyent this year unlike their offense. They will face the best offense they have seen all year inclding the most talented quarteback. Michigan will win a close game outright as an an undergo making it 4 wins in a row over Iowa.
TAKE MICHIGAN +7.5
Pure Lock
NORTH TEXAS @ UL LAFAYETTE
PLAY: NORTH TEXAS (+) PTS
R&R Totals
Marshall @ Tulane
Play: UNDER
Mikey Sports
Ball State @ Temple
Play: Ball State (+) Pts
Captain Morgan Sports
Florida @ L.S.U
Play: LSU
Sports Gambling Hotline
Vanderbilt -10' at ARMY
Our FREE play run is 43-31-4 the last 78 days.
We expect Vandy to cover this double-digit road impost against a fading Army squad.
The Black Knights option-attack is very limited, and and team from a "power" conference like the SEC should certainly be able to slow that attack down, and dominate the line of scrimmage.
Vanderbilt was able to cover the touchdown impost at Rice a few weeks back, and should have no trouble flexing their muscles here in West Point today.
Army is on an 0-4 spread slide, and they have also failed to cover 12 of their last 16 at Michie Stadium.
This is probably the last game on the Commodores schedule in which they will be favored, as they have conference games against Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee all upcoming, so look for the 'Dores to take it to Army in this one on Saturday.
Play on Vandy.
5♦ VANDERBILT
Jeff Benton
Houston at MISSISSIPPI ST. -2'
For Saturday’s free play in college football, I’m backing Mississippi State against Houston.
Well, it didn’t take very long for the Cougars’ bubble to burst, did it? After those so-called program-changing wins over Oklahoma State (45-35 on the road) and Texas Tech (29-28 at home), Houston came crashing back down to earth hard last week at UTEP, losing 58-41 as a 14½-point road chalk! So long Top 15 ranking, so long talk of crashing the BCS party, so long Heisman Trophy hopes of QB Case Keenum.
The fact of the matter is that Houston was never as good as everyone claimed it was – certainly, it wasn’t the 12th best team in the country, as the national pollsters would’ve had you believe going into last week’s game. Hell, the Cougars went from No. 12 to completely out of the Top 25 after that loss to UTEP.
Obviously, I don’t believe Houston’s going to gain re-entry today at Mississippi State, which has played much better than its 3-2 record. In the last two weeks, the Bulldogs lost to LSU 30-26 despite having four cracks at the game-winning touchdown from inside the 5-yard line with 90 seconds to play (and Mississippi State out-yarded LSU big time in that game, 374, 263, including 151-30 on the ground!). Then last week, the Bulldogs suffered a 42-31 home loss to Georgia Tech, but again they competed all day long and again finished with the yardage advantage (487-479).
What has me firmly believing that Mississippi State will close the deal today? Two reasons. First, the Bulldogs are playing at home for the third straight week and Houston is traveling for the second week in a row and the third time in four games. Second, and more importantly, is the fact that the Bulldogs’ strength (they rush for 205 yards per game, including 4.6 per carry) matches up perfectly with the Cougars’ weakness (204.8 rushing ypg allowed, including 5.3 per carry after allowing UTEP to run all over them for 305 yards and 7.4 yards per tote last week). On top of that, Mississippi State’s defense is much better against the pass (191 passing ypg allowed) than the run (145.6 ypg). Well, all Houston does is throw the football with Keenum.
Bottom line: This is a total flat spot for Houston (2-8 ATS last 10 road games), and I think the Cougars will take the field today in Starkville still hungover from that debacle at UTEP. At the same time, Mississippi State – long the doormat of the SEC – is seeing tangible signs of progress each and every week, and if they continue to play hard today (no reason to think they won’t), the Bulldogs will finally have a win to show for their efforts. After all, don’t forget, this is still a matchup of SEC talent vs. Conference USA talent.
5♦ MISSISSIPPI ST.
Stephen Nover
Arizona -3' at WASHINGTON
Arizona is a tough opponent for Washington to handle and the Wildcats catch the Huskies at the right time.
Washington is wearing down. The Huskies opened against LSU and in the last three weeks have upset USC, got pounded on the road by Stanford and last week lost in heart-breaking fashion in overtime at Notre Dame in a game they should have won.
The Huskies are an overachieving, young team and it's hard for those types of teams to bounce back off such a tough loss. Washington has failed to cover in 11 of the last 12 times following a loss.
Arizona was idle last week. The Wildcats are rested and ready. The road team has covered 10 of the last 12 in the series. They've beaten Washington seven of the past nine times. The Huskies are 15-34-2 (30 percent) against the spread in their last 51 home games.
The Wildcats are off an impressive and confidence-building 37-32 road win at Oregon State. Arizona got a spark from Nick Foles, making his quarterback debut. He threw three touchdown passes and helped the Wildcats roll up nearly 400 yards. Foles was 25-of-34 passing for 254 yards.
The Wildcats have a deep set of running backs behind a huge offensive line that averages 6-feet-5, 313 pounds. The dangerous Nicholas Grigsby is averaging 8.1 yards per carry. Matt Scott is averaging 7.1 yards per run and Keola Antolin is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Foles now gives the Wildcats a respectable passing option quarterback, which they lacked before.
Arizona leads the Pac-10 in rushing averaging 223 yards on the ground per game. Washington is surrendering an average of 178 yards rushing per contest.
The Wildcats are athletic and mobile on defense, which is a key to keeping star Washington quarterback Jake Locker in check. Washington's inexperienced wide receivers will have problems shaking free from star cornerbacks Devin Ross and Trevin Wade.
3♦ ARIZONA WILDCATS
Chris Jordan
Ohio -3' at AKRON
Take the Bobcats in this one, as they'll get it done plus the points and roll to an easy win over the Zips.
I know this is a road game, and that's always a crapshoot in this conference, but Ohio’s defense has been among the nation’s best from a statistical standpoint and the national numbers reveal that.
The Bobcats are tied for fifth in turnovers gained (14), tied for eighth in fumble recoveries (7), tied for 16th in fourth down conversion percentage defense (25.0 percent), tied for 18th in interceptions (7), 26th in pass efficiency defense (105.63), 28th in turnover margin (0.80) and 28th in third down conversion percentage defense (32.47).
That'll be more than enough to stymie the Zips, whose offense ranks near the bottom in many categories nationally.
Akron lacks a running game - it ranks 94th out of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams with an average of 113.25 yards per game - and was dependent on starting quarterback Chris Jacquemain before he was dismissed from the team.
Jacquemain played the first two games, while untested sophomore Matt Rodgers played the past two. Akron ranks 111th nationally with 159 yards passing per game, and I'm afraid that just won't cut it against this Ohio team.
Taking away a blowout win over Morgan State, the Zips' averages look like this: 67.7 yards per game rushing (117th), 150 yards passing (113rd) and 217.7 yards of total offense (120th).
Ohio, at 1-0 in the East, can keep pace with Temple by moving out to 2-0 in MAC play for the first time since 1999. A win would also give the Bobcats their best recrod through six games since 1997.
Look for the 'Cats to roll here.
2♦ OHIO BOBCATS
Karl Garrett
Utah -8 at COLORADO STATE
Friday comp play winner on the Twins-Yankees UNDER the total, now 5-1 the last 6 days for free.
G-Man gonna "chop some road wood" this Saturday with the Utes as they take on the Rams at Fort Collins.
Colorado State is off a tough road to to Idaho, and I can see them being a little drained when they hit the field against a Utah team that has been off since their win, and cover over Louisville on September 26th, and only have a game against UNLV on-deck.
Expect the Utes to be rested-and-ready to go, and the fact they have won and covered 5 of the last 6 series meetings has me not afraid to shy away from laying this road impost.
After a solid 3-0 start for the Rams, the reality of losing so many players last year to graduation may finally be starting to kick in.
Go ahead and lay the lumber with Utah, as they take this one by 10-points minimum.
2♦ UTAH
Bobby Maxwell
Oregon -3' at UCLA
Hit my fifth straight FREE winner on Friday night as Nevada took care of business at home, blowing out Louisiana Tech and cashing my ticket. Today I've got another comp winner from the college gridiron coming as I go with Oregon on the road in Pasadena, Calif. taking on UCLA.
Oregon has had a nice dose of home cooking after that humiliating loss to open the season at Boise State. The Ducks have scored four straight wins at home, including the destruction of Pac-10 opponents Cal (42-3) and Washington State (52-6).
Oregon has been killing it on the ground, outgaining opponents 553-184 over the last two weeks. The Ducks outgained Cal and Washington over the last two weeks, combining for 1,038 yards of offense while allowing just 365.
There are some stories about QBs in this one as Oregon starter Jeremiah Masoli hurt his knee and last week missed part of the game with Matt Costa taking over. Costa has just 21 career pass attempts. For UCLA, they are getting original starting QB Kevin Prince back after he missed the previous two games as his broken jaw healed. So who really knows what to expect from the QB position on either side today.
In the rivalry, Oregon won last year’s conference matchup 31-24 but didn’t cover as an 18-point favorite. The Ducks dominated the rushing yardage, outgaining the UCLA offense that looked like it was stuck in a sand box with just 63 total yards.
We’ll see if the Oregon offensive juggernaut comes out again like it has the last two. The Ducks are on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 13-5 in October games, 4-0 in the Pac 10.
UCLA has failed to cash in five of its last six when they are ‘dogs by 3 ½-10 points.
This one could get interesting if the two backup QBs have to go for any length of time. This one could go quick as both teams try to use their running games. But even there I love the Ducks as they have some talent in the backfield.
Offensive struggles will be the theme of this one as; both teams will shoot themselves in the foot a few times. But Oregon has the rushing attack to get it done. Play the Ducks.
2♦ OREGON
Scott Delaney
Love BYU at UNLV after the Rebels had their jugulars ripped out of their throats up in Reno last Saturday.
I've seen this defense in person, to wit:
Holding a lead against Oregon State, the defense couldn't contain and lost a heartbreaker at home.
Against Hawaii, albeit in a game the Rebels won, the Warriors dissected the secondary like a rattlesnake traveling through a maze of rats. They struck at free will and made the defensive backs look like statues.
Then a terrible Wyoming team that has the 100th ranked scoring offense put up 30 in a three-point win over the Rebs.
Finally, in what could've been the ugliest display of any Division-One team in the nation, the Rebels' defense let the Wolfpack rack up 773 yards of offense last Saturday - 559 of it on the ground, and 173 of it was by quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
Now you expect a team that has the 112th ranked rushing defense, 97th ranked passing defense and 112th defense overall to hang with a team that has the 24th best offense in the nation?
Let me also remind everyone that BYU has played the likes of Oklahoma and Florida State, and that this is no ordinary road trip - this is the home away from home for the Cougars.
BYU's fan base will be bigger than UNLV's for this game, mark my words.
5♦ BYU
Tony Weston
I’m taking the Phillies on the road in Game 3 of this series at the Rockies.
Colorado showed a lot of grit and determination in Game 2 of this series, getting that 5-4 win to split two games in Philly.
Tonight, however, the defending world champion Phillies will take a 2-1 series lead and get over as an underdog at the Rocks. Consider that coming into this game, even though Philly lost Game 2, they’ve taken 5 of their last 7 against Colorado and are on a 10-3 run their last 13 against the Rockies.
Consider, too, Colorado scheduled starter Jason Hammel only has two wins his last eight starts and the Rockies are just 4-4 his last 8 appearances on the mound.
On the other side, Phillies scheduled starter Pedro Martinez has been brilliant since signing with Philly back in August. In his 9 starts for the Phillies, the team has gone 8-1, including 3-1 on the road.
Philly will chalk up another victory with Martinez on the mound as the Phillies go up 2-1 in this series.
3♦ PHILLIES
Randall the Handle
Duke +15½ over N.C. STATE
Duke Football isn’t exactly synonymous with success but getting 15½-points to a mediocre team like North Carolina State will always get my attention. The numbers for Duke the past five seasons are downright horrifying but this year’s team already has two wins but more importantly can actually score some points. Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis has played in every game with the Blue Devils since 2006 and has a legitimate shot of playing in the NFL. Lewis has a 7-2 touchdown to interception ratio and last week against #5 Virginia Tech, Lewis passed for 359 yards and almost led Duke to a stunning upset of the Hokies. An elite college quarterback like Lewis can do wonders for a team like Duke and this season the offense is clicking like never before. Through five games, Duke is averaging 28.4 points a game and leads the ACC in passing yards, a remarkable achievement for a team that won a combined five games from 2006 to 2008. North Carolina State meanwhile is 3-2 with their big win coming over Pittsburgh in Week 4. North Carolina State coach Tom O’Brien was hired from Boston College and after two seasons has an 11-14 coaching record and does not have a top 25 recruiting class to his credit. O’Brien inherited arguably the best quarterback in the ACC in Russell Wilson and frankly that’s why his record isn’t worse. Wilson will lead the Wolfpack to points against Duke but it’s the North Carolina State defense that ultimately will allow Duke to stay in the game. North Carolina State saw a passing offense for the first time last week and allowed Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner to throw for 360 yards and three touchdowns. Wake Forest is a good comparison to the Duke offense because Duke has almost no running game and will throw the ball regardless of the score. North Carolina State has better overall talent but after last week’s game Duke has shown it can hang with anybody in the ACC. North Carolina State certainly isn’t a team you can feel comfortable with laying better than two touchdowns, as its coaching is subpar and their defense struggles stopping the pass. Take the points and a Duke team that absolutely believes they can win this game. Play: #315 Duke +15½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Ohio -3.5 over AKRON
Akron’s season was thrown a major wrench when the school dismissed third year starter Chris Jacquemain for the entire season. For MAC schools like Akron, stability at the quarterback position is so important and switching mid-season almost always has disastrous results. Matt Rodgers, Jacquemain’s replacement, has been dreadful so far, throwing for a measly 292 yards and four interceptions in two losses to Indiana and Central Michigan. Rodgers had never played a snap before these games and it’s safe to say he is totally unprepared to be a starter at the Division 1 level. Ohio isn’t a team with extraordinary talent but didn’t embarrass themselves against BCS opponents Tennessee and Connecticut earlier in the season. Ohio is led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, who has taken Ohio to a bowl game and is 17-16 in conference play since 2005. After employing the dreaded two-quarterback system for the first two weeks of the season, Senior Theo Scott won the job and has performed decently since. But this play really isn’t about Ohio. It’s about catching a team in disarray in Akron that will struggle mightily to win another game this season. This is a team that is dead last in the MAC in passing yards, can’t run the ball and gives up 30 points a game. Coach JD Brookhart was asked about the team’s morale and answered: “The psyche of the team is fine.” I call hogwash on that front and the fact he has any confidence in Quarterback Rodgers. It won’t be long before bettors will have to lay close to two touchdowns to bet against this team. Cash in now before the oddsmakers realize how bad a football team Akron really is. Play: #361 Ohio -3.5 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Soccer
World Cup Qualifier
USA +2.10 over HONDURAS
The USA can clinch a place in next year’s World Cup with a road victory in Honduras, which should be a tight match. Honduras will also be looking to claim all three points but are in tough against a very good American side which boasts a mix of MLS stars and players currently playing in Europe. The US will most likely start the match taking a cautious approach as they will expect Honduras to come out strong in front of their supporters, however, the Americans are a very good counter attacking side and will do that in this match to claim a narrow victory. Sure the Americans will be without star striker Clint Dempsey but they have plenty of cover in his absence, as this American side is deep. Look for USA to clinch a place in next year’s World Cup with a solid road victory over Honduras at a very generous price to boot. Play: USA +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
World Cup Qualifier
England +1.55 over UKRAINE
England has long qualified for the 2010 World Cup but that has not stopped them from playing their best squad, as will be the case here in Ukraine. Head Coach Fabio Capello will play his strongest team, as England attempts to go perfect in the qualifying round. They currently stand at eight wins and zero losses. England is firing on all cylinders and quite frankly is just too good a side for a desperate Ukraine to cope with. Ukraine needs this win if they have any hope of qualifying, as they currently sit in third place two points behind second place Croatia. Being desperate doesn’t translate to automatic wins especially when playing a powerhouse like England. England, who missed out competing in the European Championship a few year’s ago, are out to put the rest of the world on notice that they are once again a force to be reckoned with and one of the early favorites heading into next year’s World Cup in South Africa. Play: England +1.55 (Risking 2 units)
Charlie Scott
Georgia vs. Tennessee U
Play: Georgia +1.5
Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt's past record shows that his teams win on the road and there's no reason to believe otherwise today. Georgia has played the much tougher schedule so far this season, and I just don't see Tennessee QB Crompton making enough plays to win the game. Tennessee has lost to UCLA and Auburn at home this year, their defense allowing Auburn to rush for 245 yds last week. This is also a coaching mismatch as Georgia Coach Richt has been through the SEC wars, while Tennessee Coach Kiffin is young, in his first year at Tennessee and still learning how to compete in the mighty SEC. I'm on Georgia !
Sam Martin
Navy at Rice
We can’t believe this line is so low, as Navy should be able to run all over a very bad Rice defense. On the other side of the ball, the Owls have been held to 76 or less yards rushing three times this season, and while they’ve lost every game, their closest loss was by 17 points! Navy runs wild and wins this one going away.
Play on: Navy