VEGAS EXPERTS
Auburn at Arkansas
It's at this point of the year when many "surprising" unbeatens begin to fall and just like we saw with Missouri on Thursday, we believe a similar fate awaits Auburn this afternoon. Arkansas, who has faced a far more difficult schedule to date, has scored 41 or more in three games this season and played its best game of the season last week in clobbering A&M 47-19. The Hogs outgained the Tigers 416-193 in last year's meeting. HC Petrino is 7-0 ATS in his career if his team turned the ball over 3+ times previous game. Auburn is 0-6 ATS off an Under.
Play on: Arkansas
LT Profits
San Jose State -4.5
The Idaho Vandals are off to a 4-1 start and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread, while the San Jose Spartans are 1-3 with their only win coming vs. an outclassed Cal Poly SLO team. And yet, a closer look reveals that San Jose State offers great value here.
You see, the three Spartan losses have come vs. USC, Utah and Stanford, three teams that would have won just as handily if they had played Idaho instead. It then stands to reason that the yardage statistics favor Idaho by a wide margin here, making the Vandals a popular underdog pick among many bettors this week.
Looking at the two San Jose home games, they actually hung in rather nice vs. Utah, covering the big number in a 24-14 defeat. Then, when they finally got a break from the heavyweights here last week, the Spartans outgained Cal Poly by 100 yards. They are now playing a team that we consider their equal at best, an Idaho team that they have beaten each of the last four seasons.
Now the Vandals are improved this season, so we do not mean to discredit their record. But face it, the teams they have beaten are not exactly among the elite teams in the land (New Mexico State, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, Colorado State). The best opponent Idaho faced was Washington, and although they covered the 20-point spread, they did so just barely in a 19-point loss.
We feel that the early season results of these teams has skewed this line in favor of San Jose State, as this number does not appear to tae Strength of Schedule into effect. We believe this line should be closer to -7, so we will gladly go with the value favorite in this spot.
Pick: San Jose State -4.5
Tom Freese
Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Pedro Martinez gets the ball for the Phillies tonight. Pedro does not like to pitch in cold weather. The Phillies are 9-13 with revenge from a 1 run loss and they are 0-6 their last 6 Saturday games and they are 0-4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. Philadelphia is 2-5 their last 7 games vs. winning teams. Colorado is 28-14 off a win by 2 runs or less. Starting pitcher Jason Hammel is 15-6 when the Total is 8.5 to 10. The Rockies are 24-12 off 5 or more straight road games. PLAY ON COLORADO -
Dave Price
1 Unit on Alabama -4.5
Ole Miss continues to get more respect than it deserves because of the hype surrounding the Reds heading into the season. Alabama is the better team by at least a TD on the road Saturday. Bama has convincing double digit wins over VA Tech, Arkansas, and Kentucky while Ole Miss really hasn't beaten anyone. The key to victory today is Bama's No. 2 ranked defense that allows only 222.2 yards per game. The Ole Miss offense has not been the juggernaut most expected and it will be held in check by one of the best defenses in the country. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite period. Take the Tide for 1 Unit.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arizona Wildcats -3
Arizona has not played since September 26th, giving it a lot of time to get geared up for this one. Washington is coming off a tough road loss at Notre Dame and I don't expect the Huskies to be recovered yet. The key here is how weak Washington is defensively. They allow teams an average of 7.1 yards per play on the season. Arizona's balanced offensive attack will have no trouble moving the football. Plus, the Wildcats have superior athletes with a huge edge in team speed. Washington is s 0-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are playing competitive football this season, but they have undertaken a brutal schedule with games against LSU, USC, Stanford, and Notre Dame already. A tough slate like this takes a toll on lesser teams. Expect a fresh Wildcat squad to get the cover on the road.
Bettersworld
3* Boston College +14 over Va Tech
3* Pitt -7 Over Uconn
3* Ole Miss +4.5 over Alabama
3* Stanford pk over Oregon State
3* Air Force +10.5 over TCU
3* LSU +8 over Florida
3* Kentucky +10 over South Carolina
2* UCLA +3.5 over Oregon
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at St. Louis
The Dodgers look to build on their 6-1 record in Vicente Padilla's last 7 starts. LA is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+155)
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 15.703; St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.076
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+155); Under
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martinez) 16.511; Colorado (Hammel) 15.308
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Under
NHL
Colorado at Chicago
The Avalanche look to build on their 10-4 record in their last 14 Saturday games. Colorado is the pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180)
Game 1-2: Atlanta at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.431; Ottawa 11.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+140); Under
Game 3-4: NY Islanders at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.005; Boston 10.991
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+195); Over
Game 5-6: Pittsburgh at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.664; Toronto 11.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under
Game 7-8: New Jersey at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.593; Florida 10.656
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-115); Under
Game 9-10: Anaheim at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.402; Philadelphia 12.041
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+145); Over
Game 11-12: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 13.070; Detroit 12.480
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under
Game 13-14: Carolina at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.416; Tampa Bay 10.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+120); Over
Game 15-16: Los Angeles at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.455; St. Louis 11.658
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+145); Over
Game 17-18: Buffalo at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 13.001; Nashville 12.426
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+110); Over
Game 19-20: Colorado at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.312; Chicago 12.266
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+180); Over
Game 21-22: Columbus at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.367; Phoenix 12.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-120); Over
Game 23-24: Montreal at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.654; Edmonton 11.601
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-135); Over
Game 25-26: Minnesota at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.151; San Jose 11.351
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+180); Over
NCAAF
Game 307-308: West Virginia at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 92.749; Syracuse 84.989
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 8; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 10; 56
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+10); Under
Game 309-310: Michigan State at Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 87.646; Illinois 91.427
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+4 1/2); Under
Game 311-312: Boston College at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 89.019; Virginia Tech 106.309
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 17 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 13; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-13); Over
Game 313-314: Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 69.795; Central Michigan 90.888
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 21; 46
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 22 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+22 1/2); Under
Game 315-316: Duke at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 79.892; NC State 94.599
Dunkel Line: NC State by 14 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: NC State by 15 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+15 1/2); Over
Game 317-318: Maryland at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 81.283; Wake Forest 96.731
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 15 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 11; 51
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-11); Over
Game 319-320: Indiana at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.804; Virginia 91.959
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 9; 38
Vegas Line: Virginia by 6 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-6 1/2); Under
Game 321-322: Purdue at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 84.075; Minnesota 90.334
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Over
Game 323-324: Connecticut at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 93.672; Pittsburgh 99.228
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+8 1/2); Under
Game 325-326: Miami (OH) at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 66.254; Northwestern 85.094
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 19; 47
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 20 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+20 1/2); Under
Game 327-328: Iowa State at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 80.807; Kansas 101.736
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 21; 58
Vegas Line: Kansas by 19; 54
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-19); Over
Game 329-330: Alabama at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 107.094; Mississippi 99.103
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 8; 39
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-4 1/2); Under
Game 331-332: Ball State at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 68.386; Temple 84.015
Dunkel Line: Temple by 15 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Temple by 13; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-13); Under
Game 333-334: Vanderbilt at Army
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 82.371; Army 73.391
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 9; 31
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 10 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Army (+10 1/2); Under
Game 335-336: New Mexico at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 66.807; Wyoming 74.751
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 7; 52
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 10; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+10); Over
Game 337-338: Houston at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 89.540; Mississippi State 90.537
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 1; 75
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+2 1/2); Over
Game 339-340: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 96.154; Washington 90.973
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 57
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-2 1/2); Over
Game 341-342: Bowling Green at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 74.430; Kent State 73.559
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3 1/2); Under
Game 343-344: Stanford at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 96.255; Oregon State 98.025
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 2; 45
Vegas Line: Stanford by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+2 1/2); Under
Game 345-346: Georgia at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 97.951; Tennessee 96.915
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+2); Under
Game 347-348: Marshall at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 79.686; Tulane 75.536
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 4; 42
Vegas Line: Marshall by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-3 1/2); Under
Game 349-350: Kansas State at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 83.272; Texas Tech 101.456
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 18; 64
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 16; 58
Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-16); Over
Game 351-352: Colorado at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 81.401; Texas 118.080
Dunkel Line: Texas by 36 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Texas by 32; 58
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-32); Over
Game 353-354: Georgia Tech at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 96.464; Florida State 97.492
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+3); Under
Game 355-356: Wisconsin at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 92.709; Ohio State 112.791
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20; 45
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 16; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-16); Under
Game 357-358: Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 98.094; Texas A&M 83.548
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 14 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 359-360: Arizona State at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 90.429; Washington State 74.296
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 16; 55
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 21; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+21); Over
Game 361-362: Ohio at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 79.789; Akron 82.249
Dunkel Line: Akron by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Ohio by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+4 1/2); Over
Game 363-364: Utah at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 98.056; Colorado State 83.124
Dunkel Line: Utah by 15; 53
Vegas Line: Utah by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-7); Over
Game 365-366: Oregon at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 95.233; UCLA 95.155
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Oregon by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+3); Under
Game 367-368: Western Michigan at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 70.290; Toledo 81.522
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 11; 67
Vegas Line: Toledo by 7 1/2; 60
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-7 1/2); Over
Game 369-370: Southern Mississippi at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 79.179; Louisville 79.727
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1; 45
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 371-372: Kentucky at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 88.472; South Carolina 96.708
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+9 1/2); Over
Game 373-374: Auburn at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 96.370; Arkansas 100.736
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 4 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: Auburn by 3; 65
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+3); Over
Game 375-376: Baylor at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 87.464; Oklahoma 120.474
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 33; 50
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 24 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-24 1/2); Under
Game 377-378: Navy at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 90.503; Rice 73.470
Dunkel Line: Navy by 17; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 11 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-13); Under
Game 379-380: TCU at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 99.473; Air Force 93.741
Dunkel Line: TCU by 5 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: TCU by 10; 46
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+10); Under
Game 381-382: East Carolina at SMU
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 83.728; SMU 73.304
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 10 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 5 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-5 1/2); Over
Game 383-384: Florida at LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 113.478; LSU 102.708
Dunkel Line: Florida by 10 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Florida by 7 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-7 1/2); N/A
Game 385-386: Michigan at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 89.053; Iowa 102.336
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 13 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Iowa by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-8); Under
Game 387-388: Utah State at New Mexico State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 78.648; New Mexico State 62.363
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 16 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Utah State by 11; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-11); Under
Game 389-390: UTEP at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 73.718; Memphis 75.702
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2; 46
Vegas Line: UTEP by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+3); N/A
Game 391-392: Idaho at San Jose State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 78.352; San Jose State 79.780
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 4 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+4 1/2); Under
Game 393-394: BYU at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 95.221; UNLV 76.502
Dunkel Line: BYU by 18 1/2; 68
Vegas Line: BYU by 16; 60
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-16);
Game 395-396: Fresno State at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 89.625; Hawaii 77.691
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 12; 57
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 9; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-9); Under
Game 397-398: Florida International at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 70.356; Western Kentucky 66.759
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 3 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Florida International by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-3); Over
Game 399-400: North Texas at UL Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 67.296; UL Lafayette 74.652
Dunkel Line: UL Lafayette by 7 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 6; 53
Dunkel Pick: UL Lafayette (-6); Over
Sports Insights
Auburn vs. Arkansas
You're reading it right; we're still not believers in Gene Chizik's new-look Auburn Tigers. Did they go into a hostile environment and beat up on a much-ballyhooed Tennessee defense? They did. But it's easy to forget that Tennessee has gotten most of its publicity this year because of its new coach's snarky remarks, not because of results. If the public wants to overvalue this primetime victory because of all the media attention surrounding Lane Kiffin's orange and wife - err, white - we don't mind at all.
That may very well be the case. The Tigers, who travel to Fayetteville this week to take on the Razorbacks, opened as 3-point favorites at Pinnacle. Sportswriters have been all over Auburn's story this week, noting that they finally feel respected after cracking the polls at #17. These headlines have probably also obscured the fact that they've trailed in every game but their last, as Auburn is getting 68% of bets on the spread and 68% of parlays. In spite of this strong public support, the line has dropped to -2.5 at Pinnacle as well as -2 at other books. Sports Insights Betting Systems are hammering this game, with four Smart Money moves on Arkansas (including BetOnline, +6.82 Units Won). Our best early performer, 5Dimes Steam Moves, has also made an appearance. They're already up 20.4 Units on the young college football season, so we'll bet this one with confidence.
Arkansas +3
Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh
What passes for elite in Big East football may be a bit misleading, but it looks like there's going to be some serious competition at the top of the conference this season. Cincinnati and South Florida have cracked the Top 25, and whichever team wins this match-up will have a solid argument as well. Connecticut's only loss of the season came against North Carolina, a game determined by an offensive holding call in the end zone, resulting in a safety. Pittsburgh fell short at NC State but does have an impressive 27-14 victory over the Navy's triple-option attack under their belt.
Pittsburgh opened as a 10.5-point favorite at CRIS and has received 55% of spread bets. Additionally, 78% of parlay bets are falling on the Panthers, but the line has not grown as one might expect. The reverse line movement in this game is significant, dropping at least 3 points across the board. Pitt is now -7 at CRIS and can be found as low as -6.5. Sharp money surely is falling on the Huskies, and we have evidence of it in another 5Dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).
Connecticut +7
Oregon vs. UCLA
Oregon has been an awfully confusing team this season. They opened with a primetime loss to Boise State, after which their star running back leveled an opposing player with a mean right cross. Since then, they've been more and more impressive in each game, particularly two weeks ago in a 42-3 dismantling of then #6 California. To make matters more baffling, the Ducks' quarterback Jeremiah Masoli missed Monday and Tuesday's practice, was limited Wednesday, and visited doctors again on Thursday to examine his injured right knee. He insists he'll play. On the flip side, UCLA quarterback Kevin Prince rejoined practice this week after breaking his jaw against Tennessee in Week 2 and having it wired shut. Reports have had him on a diet on blended beans, spinach, rice and salsa (we were dying to know as well), and he looks ready to go against the Pac-10 leading Ducks.
Did we mention befuddling? Yet these are the games for which Sports Insights Betting Systems were made. Market analysis has proven time and again to be more dependable and accessible than poring over statistics and match-ups. Games like this allow us to get out of our own way and invest, rather than gamble. Oregon opened as a 6.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and has taken a strong 70% of spread bets as well as 85% of parlays. You'd think the sportsbooks would want to encourage some action on UCLA by giving them more points, right? Instead, the line has dropped precipitously, down to -3.5 at Pinnacle and -3 at other books. We've seen 5 Smart Money plays on UCLA triggered by profitable sportsbooks, including CRIS (+12.6 Units Won). And to complete the trifecta, you know what's coming... a 5Dimes Steam Move (+20.4 Units Won).
UCLA +3.5
OC Dooley
Southern Mississippi -1’ at Louisville
We have excellent line value with tonight’s visitor as the line on this ESPNU televised primetime contest has dropped to account for the fact that Southern Miss just lost starting quarterback Austin Davis (foot) for the rest of the season. On the face of it that is a devastating injury since Davis a year ago (3,128 yards passing, 23 touchdown passes) directed an offense that broke 36 school records and tied 6 others via the “no huddle” spread attack installed by new head coach Larry Fedora. But the fact of the matter is that reserve and now new Golden Eagles starter Martevious Young does have some previous experience and also is blessed with a strong arm along with the ability to gain rushing yards on the ground. Even though Southern Miss just lost their lead quarterback they ARE getting back their #1 options this week both at running back and wide receiver. Senior rusher Damion Fletcher is the nation’s current active leader in carries (866), rush yards (4,658), yards per game (110.9) and all-purpose plays. In last week’s stunning loss against Alabama-Birmingham both Fletcher and star wideout DeAndre Brown missed the game due to injury. Since the Golden Eagles ended up finishing that contest with all 3 of their top players in the offensive backfield hurt, it comes as no shock that Alabama Birmingham came out tops on the scoreboard. But Southern Miss has now had a full week to prepare for a Louisville contingent that failed miserably in an ESPN weeknight telecast versus Pittsburgh which was their Big East Conference opener. It was not all that long ago when Louisville had a 12-1 record and an Orange Bowl berth in what turned out to be Bobby Petrino’s final season as head coach. Without his recruiting prowess the Cardinals program has quickly faded and last year the offense recorded its LOWEST average yards per game dating all the way back to the 2002 campaign. For years Louisville’s attack thrived with star quarterbacks Brian Brohm and Hunter Cantwell leading the way, but these days there are many question marks at that critical position. Louisville played their last game without lead quarterback Justin Burke (sternum) who may be cleared to return this evening. As of this typing the Cardinals are going to make a “game day” decision between Burke or reserve Adam Froman. Whoever plays at quarterback is most likely to struggle against a Southern Mississippi defense that returned 8 starters from a year ago including the entire secondary. As for Louisville who lost a pair of All-Conference linemen to graduation the defense in the past three games (35, 30, 31) has been shredded by the opposition. As mentioned earlier in this analysis Southern Mississippi last week (-10) lost by a 30-17 count at Alabama-Birmingham as they lost their starting quarterback for the rest of the season and were minus #1 injured options at running back and wide receiver. My database research indicates that dating all the way back to 1992, Southern Mississippi has COVERED the spread at a staggering 11-1 ATS clip when shaking off a “double digit” conference loss. That statistic comes as no shock considering that Southern Miss has ripped off 15 consecutive WINNING campaigns. Southern Mississippi tonight most likely will be playing for a fallen teammate as “walk on” punter Peter Wilkes who nearly won the starting job in camp reportedly was killed in a horrible accident this week involving a gun
GREG SHAKER
Houston Cougars at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Play: Mississippi State -2.5
The Cougars are just not as good as we had anticipated and they proved that last week at UNLV. I can promise you that Mississippi State is a better team than the Runnin' Rebels and they are getting better with each week. They have found an offense and actually outgained their last 2 opponents, LSU and Ga Tech. Those are some pretty good teams ya know. They also manhandled Vandy on the road. They are very hungry for a win and should feast today on the non-existant Houston D. I would have hoped to have gotten this one at a better line but needed to confirm the injury situation which looks super for the Bulldogs.
Michael Alexander
Alabama vs. Mississippi
Play: Mississippi +4.5
In what would have been billed as a battle of NCAAF picks unbeatens, a Mississippi loss halted that thinking. Still it should be a great NCAAF Picks games as Ole Miss plays hosts to the #4 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Mississippi bouned back last week versus an overmanned Vanderbilt club but concern in Rebel camp remained as QB Jevan Snead struggled for the second game in a row. After hitting only 7 of 21 passes in the loss to South Carolina he followed that up with a three interception performance last week. If the Rebels have any hopes of an NCAAF Picks SEC title, they will have to beat the Crimson Tide. If Snead continues to struggle Ole Miss will have to relay on their defense. That might not be all that bad as the Rebels come into this NCAAF picks contest with the sixth best scoring defense in the nation allowing a total of 43 points to date.
Alabama rolls into Mississippi riding a five game NCAAF Picks winning streak versus the Rebels and are a perfect 5-0 on the season. However, last week the Tide struggled a bit in only beating Kentucky 38-20. Still the Tide has a defense that is sceond only to Florida in total defense. Overall, they allow only 222.2 yards per game. Not only do they have a tough defense but their offense hasn't been a slouch either as they average 228.2 yards per game on the ground. It appears that they might have to rely on the ground game as wide receiver Julio Jones has struggled. It's been a nice surpise for the Alabama faithful as junior QB Greg McElroy has taken care of the football in his first season as starting quarterback having thrown 89 passes without an interception in the last four games along with 8 TD's. The Tide will have to guard against complanceny as last year they led Ole Miss 24-3 at halftime but had to hold on to win. Also, Mississippi HC Nutt has had success versus 'Bama HC Saben winning two of 5 meeting outright when he was at LSU.
Mississippi is 9-3 ATS as home underdogs vs ranked teams. Alabama is 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings. The Crimson Tide has won five in a row, but has not covered the spread against Ole Miss since 2004.
Take Ole Miss
Lee Kostroski
Arizona @ Washington
PICK: Arizona: -3.5
We really like this situation play on the Wildcats. Arizona is coming off a bye week after a big win over Oregon State two weeks ago. Washington has just played three straight huge games and lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame last Saturday. In the last three weeks, the Huskies defeated USC in probably the biggest upset of the year, lost by 20 @Stanford, and lost in overtime to Notre Dame. They probably don’t have a lot left in the tank after a really emotional win (vs. USC) followed by two big losses. They return home, but after lots of traveling (@Stanford, @Notre Dame) we like the play on the road chalk Wildcats.
Arizona is 3-1 with their only loss on the road at 5-0 Iowa. They were getting inconsistent QB play from their starter Matt Scott, so they made the switch to Nick Foles in their last game against Oregon State. Foles threw for 254 yards with 3 TD’s and no interceptions. Even with limited playing time before the Oregon State game, Foles is now completing 70% for 353 yards with 5 TD’s and no interceptions this season. Arizona’s running attack really helps the passing game. RB Nic Grigsby has run for 407 yards (8.1 YPC) with 3 touchdowns.
Washington made the coaching switch and hired former USC offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian as head coach and you can see that there is improvement from last year’s 0-12 team; but they are still a long way away from being a ‘good’ team. They are giving up 409 yards per game and have been out-gained in 4 of their 5 games. In the last two weeks, they gave up 954 total yards and 74 points in losses to Stanford and Notre Dame. They are obviously fatigued after two road games and a deflating overtime loss to Notre Dame. We like the situation when a team is coming off of a huge game (additionally a heartbreaking loss) and has to play a conference game against an underrated opponent coming off of a bye week.
The Wildats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games @Washington. Washington is 15-34-2 ATS in their last 51 home games and just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two and we expect that to continue Saturday. Go with Arizona.
Dominic Fazzini
Michigan State -4 at ILLINOIS
Jered Weaver definitely pitched better than I expected as the Angels beat the Red Sox on Friday night, spoiling my complimentary selection. But I'm going to rebound today with a play on a Big Ten showdown.
Illinois is reeling and coach Ron Zook has replaced Juice Williams as quarterback after making 38 consecutive starts. Redshirt junior Eddie McGee gets the nod to kick-start the offense for the Fighting Illini, who are 1-3, including 0-2 in the Big Ten.
Illinois has been pounded in its three losses, falling by a combined score of 102-26. The Illini are last in the Big Ten in scoring offense (17.8 points per game), 10th in pass offense (182.5 yards) and 10th in total offense (359 yards).
Michigan State is coming off a 26-20 overtime win over rival Michigan, and has shown the ability to pile up the points, averaging 31.4 per game. Unfortunately for the Spartans, the defense didn't show much in losses to Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
But with the problems Illinois is having, I think Michigan State should be able to win easily today. Take the Spartans to cover the points.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Michael Cannon
Connecticut at PITTSBURGH -6'
Take Pitt as the home chalk over Connecticut today.
The Panthers come into this game leading the nation in sacks per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Connecticut team that doesn’t get much from its passing game.
The Huskies like to play it in the trenches. Running the ball well and stopping the run. But Pitt’s liability has been in its secondary, so it doesn’t appear that the Huskies have the makeup to take advantage of the Panthers deficiencies.
Besides, Pitt is a different-looking team this year. The Panthers can beat you equally with the run or the pass. Senior quarterback Bill Stull has been a late-bloomer and has tossed 11 TDs against only one INT this year.
Pitt also has the talented true freshman Dion Lewis at running back. Lewis is averaging 116 ypg which ranks 6th in the nation. His ability to make plays in the running game will keep UConn from ganging up in the secondary to stop the pass.
Take Pitt minus the points as they grab the 10-point win.
3♦ PITT
Drew Gordon
Wisconsin +16 at OHIO STATE
Now a 66-57 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Angels over the Red Sox 4-1 Friday! For today's free play, we're looking at the Wisconsin at Ohio State match up.
Parity is all the rage in college football, and there's no better example than this Big Ten Clash featuring perennial powerhouse Ohio State hosting an undefeated Wisconsin squad this afternoon. Let me make this crystal clear: The Badgers are the real deal, getting done "Big Ten-style," running the rock (217 rushing yards/game), converting on 3rd down (56%), mixed in with a dash of defense. Look for the Badgers to use this formula to milk the clock and keep this game relatively competitive throughout.
Since losing to USC, we've seen the Buckeyes pick it up, winning and covering their last 3 contests. However, let's not get too carried away, as the Badgers are definitely the best team they've seen since the Trojans, and let's not kidd ourselves, the Buckeyes were double-digit favorites in each of their L3 games (in other words, they were supposed to win big)... If Ohio State thinks its going to steamroll Wisky like it Illinois or Indiana, they've got another thing coming.
So how does Wisconsin get it done? Its actually more up to QB Scott Tolzien, who's ultra-efficient play this season has helps the Badgers to their 5-0 record. He uses his tight ends better than most QBs in the Big Ten, and he's got two good one's in Graham and Kendricks. We can't mention Wisconsin without mentioning the resurgent RB John Clay, who shredded Michigan State and Minnesota in his last 2 games. He'll have tough sledding today against a very good Buckeye's defense, but rest-assured, when yards need to be gained the big bruiser will get it done.
Bottom line, underestimate the Badgers at your own risk, as they're a profitable 5-1 ATS in their L6 Big Ten match ups, and come into this contest playing their best football in recent memory! Buckeye's meanwhile, still likely win this contest SU, but covering the bloated number is an entirely different story. The Badgers are for real, and they'll prove it to the world with a strong showing in this match up.
Take Wisconsin plus the points over Ohio State in this college football match up.
3♦ WISCONSIN