Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 11

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

San Francisco at St. Louis
The Giants open up the NLCS series tonight in St. Louis and head into the contest with a 1-5 record in Madison Bumgarner's last 6 starts versus the Cardinals. St. Louis is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120)

Game 953-954: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.773; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.209
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over

Game 955-956: Kansas City at Baltimore (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 15.914; Baltimore (Norris) 14.330
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

Montreal at Philadelphia
The Flyers look for their first win of the season and come into tonight's contest with a 13-3 record in their last 16 home games versus the Canadiens. Philadelphia is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110)

Game 51-52: Washington at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.607; Boston 12.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-180); Under

Game 53-54: Anaheim at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.957; Detroit 10.534
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+100); Over

Game 55-56: New Jersey at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.212; Florida 11.760
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Over

Game 57-58: Carolina at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.776; NY Islanders 10.818
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+155); Over

Game 59-60: NY Rangers at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.412; Columbus 11.932
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-105); Under

Game 61-62: Pittsburgh at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.113; Toronto 10.209
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Over

Game 63-64: Ottawa at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.746; Tampa Bay 10.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+155); Over

Game 65-66: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.316; Philadelphia 11.742
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under

Game 67-68: Calgary at St. Louis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.312; St. Louis 12.879
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

Game 69-70: Dallas at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.820; Nashville 11.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+100); Under

Game 71-72: Buffalo at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.122; Chicago 12.647
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-250); Under

Game 73-74: Los Angeles at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.512; Arizona 10.122
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-135); Under

Game 75-76: Minnesota at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.332; Colorado 11.410
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 77-78: Edmonton at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 9.787; Vancouver 11.819
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-175); Under

Game 79-80: Winnipeg at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.329; San Jose 12.896
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-185); Over

CFL

Ottawa at BC
The Lions host Ottawa (2-11 SU) tonight and come into the contest with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing SU record. BC is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: BC (-10)

Game 293-294: Ottawa at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 99.382; BC 116.643
Dunkel Line: BC by 17 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: BC by 10; 44
Dunkel Pick: BC (-10); Over

DAVE COKIN

INDIANA VS. IOWA
PLAY: INDIANA +6

Let’s call it straight, if you’re looking for a reliable college football team, Indiana sure isn’t it. The Hoosiers own what for them is a huge win at Missouri. But they’ve also lost to Bowling Green and got destroyed at home by Maryland. Indiana also has wins over Indiana State as well as last Saturday’s throttling of North Texas. No doubt about it, this team has some real Jekyll and Hyde tendencies.

On the other hand, I think Iowa can be called almost the model of consistency. The Hawkeyes have basically been about the same every game. They haven’t dominated anyone, but they’ve been pretty much okay en route to a 4-1 ledger.

Iowa does own what’s supposed to be a scheduling advantage here, as they’re at home off a bye week following a win. But Kirk Ferentz off the bye hasn’t exactly been a bed of roses for the Hawkeyes. I’m showing them being just 4-7 in this scenario going back to the turn of the century.

Indiana fits a stat angle that I play regularly, which is an underdog with great rushing stats. I’m always on the prowl for teams that figure to win the overland stats. That’s not an automatic here by any means, as Iowa has been tough to run on. But the Hawkeyes do figure to have their work cut out here trying to shut down Tevin Coleman and his pals. Coleman is getting little in the way of national chatter, but this guy is having a monster year.

Iowa is decidedly unspectacular on offense. Mark Weisman bulls his way for positive yardage and is a drive prolonger. I’m assuming Jake Rudock will be back under center for the Hawkeye after getting hurt against Pittsburgh and sitting out the Purdue game. CJ Beathard engineered the comeback against the Panthers, but was only serviceable against Purdue. Rudock is no great shakes, but he’s the much more accurate passer and would appear to fit what Ferentz wants to do on offense better than Beathard.

There’s zero question that Iowa is better defensively, but I have to say that Indiana is a little better on this side of the ball than I thought they’d be. That should give the Hoosiers a reasonable shot at containing Iowa here, and again, the way the Hawkeyes like to play also figures to help the visitors hang in.

Indiana played a really good game last weekend against North Texas. I know their big win was at Mizzou, but I actually gave my highest Hoosiers performance grade off the win against the Mean Green. Most impressive was the defense, and it looks as though Indiana might have an actual superstar in freshman linebacker Tegray Scales. I also love this kid’s mindset. He had a remarkable game against North Texas, and the first thing he talked about postgame were his mistakes.

There’s the rub as far as this game and this selection goes. Indiana has had trouble putting together back to back good games. They have, throughout the Kevin Wilson regime, been maddeningly consistent in their utter inconsistency. That’s obvious, as the Hoosiers have not won two in a row since 2012. But I’m going to gamble that this time the Hoosier won’t bounce and will be in the thick of things all day at Kinnick Stadium. I would have preferred a full TD here, but I don’t think that’s going to happen, so I’ll take what I can get now with Indiana.

Sleepyj

Syracuse +23.5

Syracuse just came off a big blowout loss...They are better than that loss indicated. FSU is about to play the biggest game of the season next week Vs. Notre Dame..FSU has shown me nothing that they deserve to be a 23.5 pt fav on the road..The better teams they have played..Have gave them trouble...Syracuse will be rockin the house in this one..Huge look ahead here for FSU..i think 17 maybe 21..but not 23.5..grab the points here..Orangemen will take this is the BCS championship game and will give FSU all it can handle for 4 qtrs.

North Carolina +16.5

Too many points for a team that is a quality bunch..The defense worries me...Notre Dame does not impress me as i dig into what they did this year..They beat Stanford..Well Stanford has a bad offense..period...They played 4 other teams that are not good period..This is a step up from who they have played aside from Stanford..This Carolina team can score...ND will be looking ahead to FSU as the entire season hangs in the balance with that one...Notre Dame distracted...yes very much yes...Play NC..this line is to high..The oddmakers know it..ND wins by 10 in a good game that they wont be really threatened to much..but i doubt they cover..NC may even take a lead in this game to wake up the Irish.

JR O'Donnell

Texas A&M -3

Texas Am -3 as we will lay the points vs Ole Mississippi @ home College Station ..Power Rated @ Texas Am - 7 fl as they are a tough tough ball club that will bounce back on ESPN .. The Aggies will be ready as the Ole Miss club will be without D Back Elston... Aggies win by a touchdown.

Brad Diamond

Temple -16½

This is an AAC game Saturday in Philadelphia. The Philly Owls come in with a HUGE EDGE being off last week, while the Golden Hurricanes were smacked around by Colorado State 42-17 in a game that saw the Rams sprint out to a 28-7 lead at half-time. Colorado State amassed 532 yards of offense against the smaller Tulsa squad. Tulsa shows 1-4 SU & ATS with Temple 3-1 SU & ATS. Temple’s only loss (we called right here) was against running Navy 31-24. In their three wins the Owls average point differential was 38.3 per game. Both Temple and Tulsa are 1-0 in conference.

Where Tulsa will lose this game is on defense as they are allowing 42.4 points per game ranked #107 out of 124 teams in the nation. The Golden Hurricanes are 76th in offense scoring at 23.4 points per game. They have averaged over 133 yards per game on the ground. But, will need a successful day controlling the ball against the Temple defense, as the Owls offense has big strike capabilities with QB P. J. Walker. The stat sheet shows Temple scoring at a 37+ point per game average. In closing the last three seasons that Tulsa ended with a losing record, they rebounded with a winning season, not this time.

Temple show 21-8-1 ATS in October covering at a 10-2 clip L12 times out. Tulsa comes in 1-6 ATS vs. >.500 units, while losing 4 straight overall to the number. A word of caution, the line opened Sunday night at -12-1/2 Temple and shot quickly to -17 on Monday. There has been a buy back in Vegas today taking the line to 16-1/2. With Tulsa taking a long trip to the east coast with an early start to boot, Temple 37 Tulsa 17.

Harry Bondi

TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (-12) over Florida International

Florida International comes in off a phony win over Florida Atlantic last Thursday night in which they benefited from four costly red-zone turnovers by FAU. In fact, FIU has a 21-to-8 edge in turnovers this year – including a 10-1 advantage the last two weeks – and still is only 3-3 straight up. The veteran Roadrunners hang on to the ball and put a whipping on FIU.

Andy Iskoe

Duke +3

Since taking over in 2008 coach Cutcliffe has changed both the fortune and the culture of the Duke program. Having been to just 2 Bowl games since 1960, the most recent in 1994, Duke has been to a Bowl in each of the past 2 seasons. But Georgia Tech has remained a nemesis as Duke has not defeated Tech since 2003 and is just 2-22 SU since 1990 (8-15-1 ATS). Yet despite this long history of futility this game this line is smallest line over the last 25 games, suggesting that the linesmakers are well aware that Duke's improvement is legitimate. And the line even considers the fact that in back to back weeks Duke lost 22-10 at Miami Fla and Tech defeated the Hurricanes at home 28-17. Both teams have excellent ground attacks although Duke has the better balanced offense with a decent passing game. Defensively Tech allows 6.9 yards per play, #120 of 128 FBS teams. Duke is #15 (4.7 ypp). An underdog with a competent offense and a solid defense makes for an attractive upset candidate.

This would have been a stronger play and likely one included in one of my "For Sale" packages had the line, which opened with Duke getting 6 points, not shown such a drop during the week. But Duke is still playable as I give them an excellent chance of pulling the outright upset and the line may indeed reverse direction and rise back above 4 as kickoff approaches.

Tony Stoffo

Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Play: Under 43

Sucker total bet setting up here as the odds makers posted a super low total on this Wildcats/Golden Gophers Big Ten match-up, and the public have bet it up thru the week. Sharps will come in on the under in this spot as we get closer to kickoff. Under is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games in October. Under is 6-0 in Wildcats last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 conference games. Under is 5-0-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games following a bye week. Under is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 home games. Plus let's not forget that Both starting quarterbacks have only 3 touchdown passes the entire season. Under this posted total the play here

Sam Martin

Texas at Oklahoma
Prediction: Texas

Sooners and Longhorns are on opposite ends of the spectrum this season, with Texas struggling mightily this year while Oklahoma was in everyone's conversation for inclusion of the four-team playoff prior to last week's loss against TCU. Linesmakers know that Oklahoma will get the bulk of the betting action and have the Sooners as favorites of more than two touchdowns (as of this writing), however, it's this type of rivalry that tends to see the big underdog step up big time, and we'll take the generous points with Texas this Saturday.

Not necessarily calling for the Longhorns to win this game outright, but we do expect to see the best game yet out of Texas this afternoon and for the underdog to be the more motivated team. Sooners in an obvious letdown spot here after having their season dashed with last week's loss, and having to cover this big number may be too big a task. Remember, nobody gave Texas a chance last year as they lined up as big 13.5-point underdogs and won outright by 16 points! Texas battles tough and stays within two touchdowns here!

Bryan Power

Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Pick: Duke

The public doesn't seem to be buying Georgia Tech's 5-0 start, nor am I. Granted, I did have the Yellow Jackets in this space only a week ago as they were hosting an overrated Miami team. They won 28-17. Now they host a Duke team that lost to Miami two weeks ago. Normally, I don't like "following the money" and taking diminished value, but the Blue Devils plus the points remain worth a shot Saturday afternoon.

En route to a shocking ACC Coastal Division title last year, Duke lost only two regular season conference games, their first two. One was a wild 58-55 loss to Pitt where they covered as four-point dogs. The other was to this Georgia Tech team by a final of 38-14. That was the only regular season ACC game that the Blue Devils did not cover. With the revenge angle in play (just 2-22 SU L24 vs. Ga Tech!), I expect the dog to be fired up (off a bye) as they arrive in Atlanta.

There are only 10 unbeatens remaining in College Football, so you know Georgia Tech's time for a loss is coming soon. Other than unranked Marshall, the Yellow Jackets probably carry the least amount of respect among those 10 teams. While we know GT can run the ball, so too can Duke and the "Ramblin' Wreck" isn't exactly very good at stopping their opponents from running either. If the Blue Devils protect the football here, look for an outright win.

Tony George

Oregon -2.5

Wow…3 weeks ago numerous sports writers and TV guys said this was Oregon's year and the last 2 weeks they have struggled, BUT SO HAS UCLA. The Bruins have struggled all year and won ugly and it caught up to them last week with Utah beating them at home. Enter a pissed off Oregon team with the better QB, because he has more weapons around him and I like the Ducks here.

UCLA is a pretender in big PAC 12 games, between Stanford and Oregon, UCLA has lost 10 straight to those 2 elite PAC 12 teams. Both teams offensive lines a mess, but UCLA allowed 10 sacks last week - UNREAL. Oregon gets back on track in this one and remember this Oregon team hammered a very good Michigan State this season and I feel is battle tested. The revenge factor you ask, well UCLA played with 4 time revenge last year and revenge every year before that for 4 years and never beat the Ducks. I still Oregon if they get healthy on the OL, is still one of the top 8 teams in the nation.

Ask yourself this, what has UCLA done besides disappoint all season? Virginia outscored them 20-7 in their opener and with some defensive miracles they won that game. The allowed 10 sacks last week, 10!! While Oregon is not a Chip Kelly coached team anymore, they have more weapons on offense

Wunderdog

Mississippi @ Texas A&M
Pick: Mississippi +2.5

I'm not sure when the last time, if ever, that Ole Miss and Miss State both started the season at 5-0, but here we are with both highly ranked. The Aggies once again have a strong passing attack, but they will face their stiffest challenge of the season as the Ole Miss defense is one of the best in the country, and they have foiled opponents' air attacks, limiting them to just over 150 yards per contest, and the defense as a whole allows a stingy 10.2 points per game. Turnovers are always a major factor in close games, and Ole Miss has a 28 game streak where they have turned the opponent over at least once, and have done a great job getting in the passing lanes as the defense has 20 INTs through five games. The Aggies have not played well enough on defense as their three SEC opponents have compiled 492 yards per game and 34.7 points per game. The Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six and A&M has struggled vs. the better teams, logging just an 8-20 ATS mark in their last 28 vs. a winning team. The Rebels are the real deal, so make the play on Ole Miss.

Jeff Clement

TCU vs. Baylor
Play: TCU +8

TCU is coming off a 37-33 home win against Oklahoma last week and will be a 8 point underdog against Baylor which averages 51.0 points per game. Last week quarterback Bryce Petty struggled against the Longhorns with only 111 yards passing but came away with a 28-7 win. Petty has thrown for 1,024 yards with 9 TD's and only 1 INT this year but will be in for another tough test against the Horned Frogs defense which only allows 13.5 points per game. TCU has Trevone Boykin at quarterback who is having an outstanding season with 1,176 yards passing, 260 rushing and 10 touchdowns. TCU is 6-0 ATS last 6 games and Baylor is 1-6 ATS last 7 meetings with TCU. Prediction: BAY 33 TCU 28.

Freddy Wills

Duke vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Duke +3.5

The only reason that Duke is not a premium play here is that they have yet to prove they can stop the run, but there are several reasons why I still like them and will be putting money on them on Saturday. For one there is value here when you look at the fact that Duke lost to Miami and Georgia Tech beat Miami. Oddsmaker's have adjusted the line accordingly, but I don't think that one game is a good indicator in predicting this game. Duke was the pre-season favorites to win the Coastal and face Florida State in the ACC Championship, but now it's Georgia Tech's hype leading the way. Duke has had 2 weeks to hear about it and prepare for the triple option. If Duke was ever going to stop the triple option it's this year with 2 weeks to prepare and a defense returning 8 starters flush with talent in the back 7. It also is worth knowing that Georgia Tech has not stopped the run either allowing 5.46 ypc which is just what Duke likes to do averaging over 6 ypc. I expect a close game decided by a field goal. I give the edge to Duke, because of the extra time to prepare and they have been clutch on third down allowing just 29% conversions and now they face a team that is really predictable in their play calling.

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