Bill Biles
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -14
Oklahoma takes on Texas in one of the best rivalries in college football. Oklahoma coming off a loss to TCU is going to motivate them to come back strong. Texas defeated a favored Oklahoma team last year, so Oklahoma is on notice and will look to avenge that loss last year. I look for Oklahoma to play a solid game and win this one in big fashion.
EZWINNERS
Rice Owls +1
The Rice Owls seem to have things back on track with back to back wins after their 0-3 start to the season. Army is coming off of an upset win against Ball State last week, but the Cadets rarely win back to back games as they are 0-11 straight up in after their last eleven wins. The Army defense should have a hard time getting off of the field against a Rice team that usually owns time of possession while the Rice defense is familiar defending the option. The defending Conference USA champs should get back to .500 this week. Play on Rice.
Mississppi State Bulldogs +3
This is a very even matchup in my opinion and in the battle of unbeaten teams I side with the home underdog. The SEC is loaded this season and any team can beat another from week to week. Mississippi State is setup nicely having been at home for a second week in a row having a fairly easy win over Texas A&M last week. Auburn took advantage of an LSU offense that is not very good in their revenge win last week. The Bulldogs offense is clicking and has excellent quarterback play and will test this Auburn defense. Take the points.
North Carolina Tar Heels +17
The Fighting Irish tend to play to the level of the competition as they have played close games with both Syracuse and Purdue this season that are not very good teams. North Carolina does not have a good record either, but they do have a lot of offensive talent that can put points on the board. The Heel's uptempo offense presents some challenges the Irish defense has yet to face this season. This is a huge spread to ask the Irish to cover with their biggest game of the year on deck next against Florida State. Take the points.
Texas A&M Aggies -2
The Aggies are coming off of their first loss of the season last week at Mississippi State, while Ole Miss is coming off of one of the biggest wins in the recent history of the program. The Aggies won 41-38 in Oxford last season and while Johnny Football is gone, Texas A&M offense is running the same system with Kenny Hill and their defense is improved over last season. It will be tough for Ole Miss to match last weeks intensity on the road at night in College Station. Lay the points.
USC Trojans -2.5
This is a big let down spot for Arizona after knocking of Oregon on the road last week. USC is at the opposite end of the spectrum having lost on a Hail Mary to Arizona State last week. The Trojans defense does have its issues, but I expect them to get enough stops to win and cover this game. USC quarterback Cody Kessler is playing well and I like the Trojan offense to win this one in a shootout against a Wildcats team that is still enjoying last week's upset win. Lay the points.
DAVE COKIN
MASSACHUSETTS AT KENT STATE
PLAY: MASSACHUSETTS -2
There’s finally a number showing on this week’s MAC clash between UMass and Kent State, and I’m not wasting any time jumping in on this one.
Umass is winless and the Minutemen are off yet another really painful loss. They had Miami Ohio dead to rights last week and let it get away in a disastrous second half that was only topped by the kicking mishap at the finish line. But if you’re thinking this is too demoralizing for UMass to rebound from just one week later, I think you can forget about that. All reports are that the Minutemen have had a very strong practice week, and feel extremely confident this is their week to break into the win column.
My suspicions are that the atmosphere is not as positive at Kent State. Credit the Golden Flashes with playing a very tough game at Northern Illinois last week. But this has been a nightmare campaign for this program, and things just aren’t getting any better.
Kent State suffered a terrible blow prior to the season when starting center Jason Bitsko died in his sleep. Obviously, it cannot get any worse than that. But the injury situation for this team is just an added depressant. The Flashes have already lost top RB Durham for the season and now they’re really beat up at QB. Colin Reardon and his backup Nathan Strock are each now listed as doubtful for Saturday. That means it’s possible they’re down to a #3 QB and on an offense that’s only producing 59 yards per game on the ground, that’s not good.
I’m not completely sold Reardon sits here, despite the injury report. I get pretty solid MAC info and I can report that Reardon was dressed for the yesterday’s practice, although he did not participate. But I that could indicate there’s a chance he plays on Saturday.
Regardless, I see this as the spot where the Minutemen break through. They’re 0-6, but UMass is also literally just a small handful of plays from being 4-2. Maybe there’s an argument that Kent State has a couple of near misses as well. But I believe the visitors have been the far more competitive entry and they’re deserving of being favored here. I’ll look for Massachusetts to final hold onto a lead this time en route to the win and cover.
River City Sharps
Akron -13.5
The Akron/Miami (OH) series is one that has been dominated by the Redhawks in recent years as they are 12-3 straight up in the last 15 games between these two schools. Most of the RCS long term clients know that Akron has been a very popular “fade” team for us and that strategy has made RCS and our clients a lot of cash! That said, this is not your typical Akron team and HC Terry Bowden has done a nice job in methodically building back the Zips football program. For Miami, they finally got an FBS win last weekend with a 42-41 victory over UMass. We feel that we have caught Akron here in a really nice spot. You get the Zips off a “sleepy” effort vs. Eastern Michigan, a game they eventually won 31-6. That was a letdown spot off a program building win the week before at Pittsburgh. Then we get Miami that finally got an FBS win, albeit a one-point decision over a pretty bad UMass team. We get Akron at home looking to get back to playing 60 solid minutes and this sets up well for us to cash the ticket. Miami is 1-4 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and the Zips are 4-1 in their last five games following an ATS loss. We are backing the home team in this spot.
Nelly
West Virginia - over Texas Tech
West Virginia has just three road wins in two-plus season of Big XII play with all three wins coming by very slim margins. The Mountaineers are just 3-2 this season it what figures to be a critical season for Dana Holgorsen in his fourth year in Morgantown and the Mountaineers enter this game coming off a convincing homecoming win over Kansas, a game that West Virginia fell short of the favorite spread in but dominated. This is a key game for both teams who could end up sitting right on the edge of the bowl picture this season. Texas Tech showed some signs of trouble in a 2-0 start as wins over Central Arkansas and UTEP came in tight games with the defense surrendering big numbers. The Red Raiders have now dropped three in a row with each loss coming by double-digits. The last two losses have come on the road and Texas Tech is 2-0 S/U and ATS vs. West Virginia the last two seasons. On a per play basis these teams have similar numbers with West Virginia significantly superior on a per game yardage basis. Texas Tech is gaining more yards per carry but the Mountaineers rush 43 times per game, something that will be a problem for a Red Raiders defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush and surrendering 259 rushing yards per game. West Virginia is also the much more efficient passing team with 69 percent completions this season despite Texas Tech's reputation as a well oiled passing team. While Texas Tech has played a good schedule with the three losses all coming against quality teams, West Virginia's losses came against Alabama and Oklahoma in very competitive games. West Virginia also owns a quality win at Maryland. While this line is adjusted dramatically from where it would have been before the season started the gap between these teams seems significant.
Tony Finn
Air Force at Utah State
Play: Air Force +7
Emotions run deep in College Football and there are significant factors in this container when evaluating the Saturday night Mountain West battle between Air Force and Utah State. Utah State is coming off a big win in Provo when they destroyed a BYU team by the score of 35-20, a win that would have looked even better had the Cougars not lost, again, Thursday night to Central Florida. Air Force is coming off back-to-back wins as a home underdog, to Boise State and Navy. Last year's Falcons won only twice, and their improved stop-unit play has made them more than competitive in a soft MWC. Hence, a Free MWC Football Pick to Click from Finn is ready to hit with all your bankroll budget will allow.
It's true that Air Force hasn't been the same team on the road this year losing to Wyoming and squeaking by an undermanned Georgia State troupe. But despite the Aggies big win over the Mormons they are not the same team that scored in bunches a year ago and are dependent on halting opposing schools ground games. There is reason to believe that the current Utah State crew doesn't know that a brain fart is... still a fart... and continuing to inhale (due to their big win a week ago) is harmful to the health of the win column.
Does a couple of added days of practice give Utah State an added edge against the Air Force’s run-based flexbone and trump this Free MWC Football Pick to Click? And does this coaching staff still pride themselves on stopping the oppositions ground attack? Air Force might be coming off a couple of underdog home victories but these wins only make the military outfit more confident. The Falcons haven't forgotten last year's 52-20 loss to the Aggies, a game in which they used three quarterbacks (not one of those three were Kale Pearson) that was not the true starter.
It would be a mistake to underestimate the current mind-set of this Air Force team. They are head and shoulders healthier, more talented and most important, much more focused than last year's squad that was an injury-ravaged and dysfunctional.
It is important to note that the Falcon's signal caller, Pearson is in fine form and that prior to last week's big win over BYU the Aggies had not covered one number this season.
The Utah State win over BYU looked bigger than it actually was. The in-game stats were dead even for the most part and the big difference in the affair was a Cougars backup signal caller that was not ready to play when the BYU offense lost QB Hill to a broken leg. At that point the Aggies forced four turnovers winning by double digits.
Larry Ness
Penn State at Michigan
Pick: Michigan
I used Michigan (plus-3) last Saturday right here and escaped with a cover when the Wolverines lost 26-24 at Rutgers. I'm coming right back with "Big Blue" in this one, backing this beleaguered program and its "on the hot seat" head coach, Brady Hoke. Michigan’s woes have been well-documented but the Wolverines are not as bad as all that.
Michigan out-gained its first FOUR opponents and despite allowing Rutgers' Gary Nova to pass for 404 yards, lost by just TWO points on the road last Saturday.The much-maligned Devin Gardner wasn't bad at QB last week (13 of 22 passing for 178 yards plus 40 rush yards and two TDs). I expect more improvement this Saturday.
Yes, Penn State opened 4-0, but the Nittany Lions were fortunate to get past UCF (by two points and Rutgers (by three points) plus no one gets too much credit for wins over Akron and UMass. Penn St was exposed as a pretender by Northwestern, getting held out of the end zone in a 29-6 loss two weeks ago.
A week off was likely good news but it's hard NOT to notice that SIX of Penn State's 12 TDs in 2014 came against UMass (2-28 since moving up to the FBS level). QB Christian Hackenberg is talented but his OL stinks and he REALLY misses WR Allen Robinson, who is now playing in the NFL.
Penn State prevailed 43-40 in a four-OT game last year in Happy Valley, which was the longest game in school history. That familiar refrain of 100,000 fans swapping "We are!" "Penn State!" chants, rained down on the Michigan players and the Penn St faithful (which have been through quite a lot these last few years), stormed the field in celebration after the contest.
That memory should give Michigan all the motivation it needs in a rare home night game and one "Big Blue" badly needs.
Matt Fargo
Rice vs. Army
Play: Rice +1
We used Rice in this spot last weekend and we will again back the Owls as they look to get to .500 for the first time this season. The Owls lost against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, which are a combined 10-1, away from home and then dropped a tough three-point setback against a very good Old Dominion team at home. Since then, they have won two straight games and this continues an important five-game stretch against mediocre opposition as Rice needs to take care of business if it wants to have a chance at a third straight bowl game as the back end of the schedule is loaded. Army defeated Ball St. last week to end a three-game slide with all of those losses coming on the road. This season, the host is a perfect 5-0 in Army games so the short number here would suggest a win and a cover for the Black Knights but not so fast. They have struggled over the few years to put together winning streaks and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last time Army won consecutive games. The Black Knights have dropped 13 straight games following a victory and most of those haven't even been close with 10 of those defeats coming by double-digits and the average loss in those games has been by 18 ppg. Rice meanwhile has been very good at putting together winning streaks as it is 12-3 in its last 15 games following a victory and those wins have been mostly of the runaway kind as they have come by an average of 13.6 ppg.
Jeff Alexander
USC -3
USC was stunned by Arizona State last Saturday, blowing a 9-point lead with under 3 minutes remaining, but don't expect the Trojans to hang their heads with a chance to pull even with Arizona in the Pac-12 South. The Trojans are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. What's even more impressive is their perfect 7-0 ATS mark in road games since 1992 when they are off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have bounced back to win by an average of 24.3 points in these contests. The fact the Wildcats are a home dog after upsetting Oregon tells us odds makers aren't sold. It's also interesting to note that when the line is +3 to -3 road teams with a winning percentage of 51-60% are 37-13 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Trojans, who are 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Rocketman
Wyoming vs Hawaii
Play: Wyoming +6
The Wyoming Cowboys travel to Hawaii to take on the Rainbow Warriors on Saturday night. Hawaii is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS last 3 years in the month of October. Wyoming is 6-1 SU last 7 meetings overall with Hawaii. Wyoming is 22-10 ATS last 32 road games. Hawaii is 5-12 ATS last 17 conference games. Wyoming returned 16 starters this year for first year Head Coach Craig Bohl. Definitely a barking dog here in this one and could easily win outright. We'll recommend a small play on Wyoming tonight!
Joseph D'Amico
Florida International vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: Florida International +10
FIU has won and covered their L2, both as a 'dog. The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS this season. They are doing it with defense, allowing opponents just 328.7 YPG and a mere 20.5 PPG. Their speedy stop-unit ranks 25th in the nation and will get to QB, Tucker, who has more INT' s than TD's (6/4). The Road Runners can not run the ball, ranking 109th on ground and post a lowly 21.8 PPG. This is a team that is on a 4-game skid, failing to cover their L3. Looking at their stats is deceiving because they own a great Time Of Possession rank and their overall numbers are very comparable to their opponents but TO's, penalties, and the fact that they just can't punch it in the end zone is the reason why this team is used as a doormat. The Golden Panther's are 6-2 ATS their L8 vs. losers and 6-1 ATS their L7 overall. The Road runners are 1-5 ATS their L6 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS their L7 October games.
Michael Alexander
Auburn vs. Mississippi St
Play: Auburn -3
Mississippi Sate continues behind Prescott who has thrown for 13 touchdowns along with only 2 interceptions and averages 91 rushing yards per game. But Auburn comes in at 42.8 points per game in their last 13 games and are on a 13-2 ATS run (+154½ points ATS last 13). Mississippi State ranks 86th in total defense while Auburn ranks 14th.
Chip Chirimbes
Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -3½
Northwestern is off three straight upset victories including wins over Penn State and Wisconsin while Minnesota at 4-1is looking to take advantage of the Wildcats over confidence. The Gophers will control the ball on the ground behind running back David Cobb who need just 11 yards to become a career 2,000 yard rusher.
Doug Upstone
Middle Tennessee State vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall -24½
Play On college football favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Marshall, scoring 31 or more points a game, after three straight wins by 21 or more points. The logic to this free play is simple, this type of favorite knows how to win big and proven it. The can score ample points and play solid enough defense to open wide scoring differentials. In the last five years, these teams are a sensational 22-4 ATS, 84.6 percent!
Jim Feist
Washington vs. California
Play: Washington +4½
Washington (4-1) is very good but a dog here against a rebuilding Cal squad. Washington has had two weeks to prepare after a 20-13 slugfest against Stanford. The Huskies are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. California is favored but one of the worst defensive teams in the nation allowing 40.4 ppg. The Golden Bears are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.