SPORTS WAGERS
Aston Villa +1 +101 over EVERTON
Everton is virtually on the cusp of relegation and a for team that was considered one of the elite organizations in the English Premiere League, it sits just two points (devil) out of relegation, sitting at 17th overall in the table. Desperation combined with an impressive historical ability to defend their home pitch could be the rationale as to why the Toffees enter this fixture as an overwhelming favorite. Perhaps it can be the notion that they are squaring off with an Aston Villa team that is currently on a three-game skid of their own, free-falling through the English Premiere League standings. However, Aston Villa is the same team that is responsible for defeating Liverpool at Anfield, 1-0 and Stoke City at Britannia Stadium, by an identical mark. The Villans have won two of their three victories on the road and their three defeats came at the hands of traditional powers Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City. The Villans were unable to score once in all three games, conceding eight total goals to the three teams.
Roberto Martinez's team is overvalued, given their lowly 6 point accumulation up to this point. Despite what history may dictate, the Toffees have yet to win a game at home this year. Everton managed to draw Arsenal at their side of the Merseyside, but they were pummeled 6-3 against Chelsea and were stunned by Crystal Palace 3-2, in their own backyard. Given Everton's struggles at home and Aston Villa's successes on the road, something has to give but we still like an Aston Villa squad getting a goal and betting they won’t lose by two or more.
Rob Vinciletti
TCU vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -8
Baylor is 11-1 ats at home off a win and 9-0 ats at home the last 2 years. TCU is off a monster Home dog win over Oklahoma and must now travel to Play Baylor. While some might be ultra contrarian and look to avoid fading them, We wont wrap the gift horse here. The line has gone down over 3 points and TCU is 0-8 ats off a dog win. Baylor is off 3 convincing road wins and will score early and often here. TCU has impressed winning their first 4 and matching their win total from last years 4-8 squad. Playing against road dogs from +5 to +10 off a home dog win vs an opponent off a road favored win has proven most profitable the past 34 years. Take Baylor.
Marc Lawrence
Penn State at Michigan
Pick: Penn State
Edges - Nittany Lions: 7-0 ATS as dogs off a double-digit ATS loss; and Franklin 9-3 ATS versus conference opponent off SU loss. Wolverines: 0-4 SUATS in this series, and 1-3 ATS last four as a host in this series. With UM coach Brady Hoke squarely on the hot season after his Wolverines have lost their last 10 games in a row to winning opponents, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Penn State.
Kyle Hunter
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Play: Auburn -2½
The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet Saturday in Starkville. Mississippi State has certainly impressed in their last couple wins, but I'm not convinced that the teams they have beaten in those games are as good as most people believe. Texas A&M is overrated by many because of their opening game win over South Carolina, but the Gamecocks aren't very good this year. Mississippi State winning at LSU looks less impressive after Auburn absolutely crushed LSU last week. This year's LSU team just isn't good. Auburn and Mississippi State both have a ton on the line here, but I like the fact that Auburn has been here before. This is all foreign to Mississippi State and Auburn will be the best team they have played this year by a large margin. The Tigers running game is terrific and their defense is underrated. Lay the points with Auburn.
Dave Price
Iowa -3
Indiana had its way with North Texas last week, racking up 363 rushing yards in a 49-24 victory, but things won't go as smoothly this week. Iowa has had a bye week to prepare and to get healthy. And, it's homecoming in Iowa City, which means the Hawkeyes have a little extra motivation. Indiana has been about as untrustworthy as it gets following a win as it is 0-7 ATS following its last seven victories. The Hoosiers, who rely heavily on their running attack, ran all over North Texas, but they won't have the same luck against an Iowa team that will be well-prepared for their ground game. Besides, Iowa is one of the best in the country at stuffing the run, ranking 8th nationally with just 93.2 ypg allowed. Indiana's outburst against the Mean Green actually spells doom as it is on a 0-8 ATS slide after rushing for 350 yards or more and on a 0-13 ATS skid after outrushing an opponent by 200 yards or more. Many great running teams have taken on the Hawkeyes the last couple decades and almost all of them have bit the dust. Iowa is 23-4 ATS versus teams that average 5.25 rushing yards per carry or more since 1992, and it has defeated these teams by an average score of 29.4 to 21.3. Lay the points with the Hawkeyes.
Jimmy Boyd
Alabama Crimson Tide -9
There’s no question that Arkansas is a much better team this year than the previous versions that got embarrassed by Alabama each of the last two years by 52 points. Add in the advantage of playing at home and getting an extra week to prepare and you might see some value in the Razorbacks +10, but I think this is a bad matchup for Arkansas.
It’s no secret that the strength of Arkansas’ offense is their running game. The Razorbacks come in ranked 7th in the country in rushing, averaging 316.6 ypg. However, they are going up against arguably the best run defense in the country. Alabama is giving up a mere 64.0 ypg on the ground and just 2.6 yards/carry. Arkansas has little to no passing attack, so there figures to be a good chance the offense struggles to sustain drives.
The Crimson Tide on the other hand figure to be able to put up more than their fair share of points. Alabama comes in ranked 9th in the country in total offense (554.6 ypg) and are able to beat teams with both the run (240.4 ypg) and the pass (314.2 ypg). Arkansas’ defense ranks just 92nd in the country against the pass, giving up 263.8 ypg. Don’t be fooled by Alabama only scoring 17 points against Ole Miss. The Rebels have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and feature a top notch secondary that was able to keep star wide out Amari Cooper in check.
With Alabama coming into this game extremely motivated off a loss and the advantages they have on both sides of the ball, I think we could be in store for another Crimson Tide blowout. Arkansas just doesn’t have the ability to play from behind, which means if they fall behind early things could spiral out of control.
Alabama is 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games after a contest in which they failed to cover the spread, while Arkansas is just 19-35 ATS in their last 54 games against teams who are allowing 285 or less total yards/game.
There’s also a strong system favoring the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are allowing 16 or less ppg against an average defensive team that’s allowing 21-28 ppg after a contest where they held their opponent to 3 or less points in the 1st half are 39-14 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Crimson Tide.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati/Miami Over 57½
I think we are catching a favorable total here due to both of these teams coming off a bad offensive performance last week. Cincinnati scored just 14 points at home to Memphis and Cincinnati managed just 17 points at Georgia Tech. I look for both teams to get back on track and have this game flying over the total.
Those that have watched Cincinnati this season, are well aware of how bad they are defensively. The Bearcats actually rank 144th against both the run (255.3 ypg) and the pass (306.5 ypg). This should have Miami scoring at will and should lead to a lot of quick scores.
The Hurricanes have a lot better defensive numbers and there could be some concern with them ranking 6th in the country against the pass but a lot of that is due to who they have played. Four of their six opponents have attempted 40+ rush attempts against them. Even with starting quarterback Gunner Kiel not expected to play, I still think this Bearcats' offense has a lot of explosive players, plus they have an experienced backup in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts.
It's also worth noting that these two teams haven't played each other since 1998 so neither team is going to be familiar with the opposing offense, which is a big disadvantage for the two defenses.
Joe Gavazzi
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Texas +16½
In a near statistically even game last week, Oklahoma lost a 37-33 shoot out to TCU. Combined with the 36-20 defeat at the hands of Texas last year, in which the Longhorns won the yardage battle 433 to 276, it gives Oklahoma all the incentive they need. Knowing Oklahoma HC Stoops is 10-3 ATS/loss and that his Sooners are on a 7-2 ATS run gives us plenty of fuel for the fire. Oklahoma, despite last week’s defeat, is still outscoring the opposition 42-21, while controlling the point of attack 209/5.4 to 110/3.1. The Sooners balance their attack with success in the airways 280/8.2. Combined with the situation, it provides us with all the ammunition necessary for a chalk selection with the Sooners. With Texas 2-3 SU ATS, the first time in over 20 years the Horns are under .500 entering this matchup, it looks like a no-brainer! Even the great defensive mind of first year Texas HC Strong could be hard-pressed to succeed in this challenge. After all, his Longhorns are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS as dog, including losses of 41-7 to BYU and 28-7 last week vs. Baylor. In that Baylor defeat, the Horns’ defense did hold the high-powered Bears to just 390 yards, while racking up 334 yards on their own. Nonetheless, the reality is Texas is averaging less than 14 PPG in the last month. The situation notwithstanding, I am favoring Texas as double digit rivalry dog, as the long-term 9-3 ATS dog log of HC Strong remains appealing as does the quickly improving Texas defense.
Scott Spreitzer
Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Play: Auburn -2
Mississippi State was our top premium play last weekend and we cashed in their blowout of Texas A&M. But while the front-seven on defense is fantastic, the Bulldog secondary is bad. In fact, they rank 126th against the pass. I believe Auburn, despite the fact they are a run-first team, can expose a little of the backfield deficiencies. Auburn's second half beatdown of Arkansas is more impressive now than it was when it happened and they annihilated LSU a week ago. I also expect MSU QB Dak Prescott to struggle against the quick Tiger defense. Running the ball two dozen times (like he did last weekend) against this defense will not be wise. Auburn enters on a 16-5 ATS run in their last 21, overall, and they're 10-1 ATS in their last 11 SEC games. One more in the win column. I'm laying the points with Auburn.
Harry Bondi
NORTHWESTERN (+4) over Minnesota
Northwestern started the season 0-2 straight-up and against the spread, but that was when they were laying points. The last two weeks the Wildcats have been back in their preferred role as underdog and not only covered against Wisconsin as a 7-point dog and Penn State as a 10-point dog, but they won both games outright. Northwestern is catching points again this week and we'll call for a third-straight cover, especially since Pat Fitzgerald's squad is 7-3 ATS on the road the last three seasons and faces a Gophers team that is 1-9 ATS off back-to-back wins. Wrong-way favorite. Take the points.
Bruce Marshall
Arkansas State at Georgia State
Pick: Georgia State
While few pay attention, under-the-radar Georgia State continues to cover pointspreads, now 11-4 its last 15 on the board after last week's near-upset (but handy cover) at ULL. With swashbuckling juco QB Nick Arbuckle firing away for 60 minutes, the backdoor will remain open once again for the Panthers at the Georgia Dome vs. an Ark State side that barely survived as a 24-point favorite in this matchup a year ago, winning only 35-33.
Nick Parsons
Anaheim Ducks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Detroit Red Wings -118
Both teams are coming off of opposite results in their openers. Anaheim fell apart defensively in Pittsburgh losing 6-4. Detroit on the other hand looked defensively beating Boston 2-1.
Anaheim is coming off a Coming off a 54-win season and have high expectations for this year. The Duck’s were active in the offseason adding, another offensive asset to the NHL’s highest scoring team in the form of center Ryan Kessler. They will have to improve the play between the pipes as the year progresses. Game one starter John Gibson, who has only four regular season starts in his career, gave up three goals in the first 14 minutes. Unfortunately for Detroit, Frederik Andersen will get the start for the Ducks. He has only started 24 regular season games.
Pavel Datsyuk, who played in only 45 games last season and missed the opener with a separated shoulder will probably miss game two as well. Gustav Nyquist, who led the Red Wings with 28 goals in 2013-14, scored the winner against Boston. They did get back some veterans who missed a lot of last season with injury. Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg returned to the Red Wings lineup and should give them much needed help. Franzen assisted on both goals against the Bruins..
The Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard, has the fifth-most starts in the NHL since 2009 with 274. He's 9-3-1 with a 2.00 GAA in regular-season action against the Ducks The Ducks have won their previous two regular-season trips to Detroit after winning three times in their first 36 games there (3-25-5 with three ties) since entering the league in 1993-94.
I am playing on the red Wings today. I am going with the more experienced goaltender at this early stage of the season. Detroit is coming off a win against Boston and I think they continue the winning today against Anaheim.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Alabama -9 over ARKANSAS: Alabama hasn’t fared all that well off their first loss of the year, but this team still can make it into the NCAA playoffs should they win out and do so convincingly. I know that Alabama is a bit down this year, while Arkansas is improved but how much has Arkansas closed the gap from the last two years in which Alabama has beaten them by identical 52-0 scored. The Hogs may have close the gap, but not by that much. That is just too much ground to think they have made up. The Hogs style of play also plays into the hands of the Tide as they do not spread the ball out and run that up tempo offense that gives Bama fits. Arkansas will run their power running game and that is something Alabama can stop as they come in allowing just 64 ypg on the ground, which is 3 rd in the nation. That means that the Hogs will have to rely on their 111th rated passing offense to move the ball in this one. Not gonna happen. Arkansas is also not a very good defensive team, allowing 25.8 ppg and 403 ypg. It will be tough for them to stop a Bama team that has averaged 549 ypg and 37 ppg on the year so far. The Hogs are improved, and even if they closed the gap by 2 TDs over the last two years, then they still lose by 38. I expect Alabama to win this one by 17+.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Auburn -3 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: I know that Mississippi State is off the huge win vs Texas A&M and before that they had a huge road win vs LSU, but this is a different animal that they will face in this one. We also take note that in those last two wins vs LSU and the Aggies, the Bulldogs allowed 33 combined 4th quarter points. They had big leads in both which is something that won’t happen and I expect them to again wilt away in the 4th quarter vs an Auburn offense that just keeps coming at you. The Bulldogs just won’t have the depth to play a full 4 quarters in this one. Auburn averages 42 ppg on offense and just hung 41 up on a very good LSU defense, but this team also knows how to play defense as they have allowed just 14.4 ppg on the year and I feel they can contain this Bulldog offense that is good but not great. Another sign that I see that makes me feel that MSU is not a top 5 or even top 10 team is the game vs UAB, in which they allowed 34 points and were outgained by 32 yards and that was at home. The Bulldogs have allowed 29 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and just won have enough, especially late, to keep this one close. Auburn may win by DD.
Air Force +7 over UTAH STATE: I love the Falcons here. At the beginning of the year I had this team as a surprise contender in the MWC conference and they haven’t disappointed so far. They have already won a road game at Wyoming and have a 14 point home victory over Boise State, plus they beat a very good navy squad last week. Now they travel to Utah State, who is in a flat spot for them as they are coming off a huge 15 point road win at BYU, as 21 point dogs. Letdown here. Utah State QB Garretson had a big game vs BYU last week, but as we have seen in recent weeks that BYU defense is down. Air Force can Struggle vs the Pass, but they also have allowed just 21.2 ppg on the year and will find a way to contain the Utah State passing game here. The Aggies are 8 th in the nation vs the run, but they haven’t faced a ground attack like this one yet, plus Air Force has added more passing this year, which makes them even tougher and the Aggies are 90th vs the pass. I look for the Falcons to continue to surprise and pull the outright win here, as this is just a bad spot for Utah State.
Hawaii/Wyoming Under 46.5: Last year these teams put up 112 points in regulation, but they will not come close to that in this one, as this game features the 122nd scoring offense of Wyoming vs the 113th ranked scoring offense of Hawaii. The Hawaii defense is not all that great but they don't have to be vs this slow down grind it out offense of the Cowboys. Wyoming defense allowed 56 and 48 points to Michigan State and Oregon respectively, but in their other 3 games this year they allowed a combined 44 points. This defense is tough vs the weak offenses and that is exactly what Hawaii has. This has the makings off a defensive battle.
Cincinnati/Miami Over 57: This Cincinnati defense has been horrible this year, allowing 561.8 ypg and 37.2 ppg. They are 121st in the nation in pass defense, while Miami is 50th in pass offense, which should allow the Canes some big plays downfield. Offensively the Bearcats have been excellent this year, ranking 13th in the nation in passing and yes they will be facing the 6th ranked pass defense of the Canes, but Miami has yet to face a true passing offense, so those numbers may be a bit skewed. I do not think they will stop Gunner Kiel and the Bearcats here, while this Miami offense should have its way vs one of the worst defenses in the nation. This one should be fun.
Florida/LSU Under 47: Wow I just don't see this game coming anywhere near 50 points. Tad he didhe LSU tigers are starting a freshman QB on the road for his 2nd road start of the year and he didn't fare all that well in his first by guiding his team to just 7 points, while LSU as a team had just 280 total yards in that game. Now they face a Florida Gator defense that is very tough again this year and is always tough when they play in the swamp. The Gators have averaged 33 ppg this year, but most of that is due to the 65 points they put up in their opener. They did put up 36 point vs Kentucky but just 20 in regular season of that games and in their last 2 games they put up a total of 31 points. This is not a good offense and the Gators are going back to Jeff Driskel, who has struggled this year, hitting just 54% of his passes with 5 TDs and 6 INTs. Now he will face the 10th ranked passing defense in the nation in LSU and a team that has allowed just 17.7 ppg on the year. One young QB on one side and a struggling one on the other side, facing two tough defenses should mean this will be a very conservative game plan from both teams and allot of running as well. This really has the feel of a 17-13 type game.
BEST OF OF THE REST
Duke +3 over GEORGIA TECH: Duke has really had just 1 bad game this year and that was at Miami. This is a blue devil team that is more than capable of playing in the ACC Title game again. The Blue Devils have averaged 36.8 ppg this year, while allowing just 13.6 ppg, so they have been very good on both sides of the ball. We also note that they have big revenge for a 38-14 loss at the hands of the Jackets last year. The Jackets have gone 5-0 this year so far and are off big wins over Miami and Virginia Tech in their last 2 games, so they may be a bit flat for this one. Also let’s look at Georgia Tech’s first 3 games vs Wofford, Tulane and Georgia Southern in which they struggled for most of those games before winning them. I feel they will struggle vs Duke here, but they won’t pull this one out in the end. We also note that Game 5 teams in a conference game of their first loss of the year are 16-2 ATS since 1980 if their opponent is off a SU & ATS win.
Oklahoma/Texas Under 47: This should not be a shootout. The Texas offense has been sad this year as they have averaged just 319 ypg and 18.4 ppg so far this season. That offense will not get much better vs a Oklahoma defense that is angry after allowing TCU 33 points last week. They also have to be angry after Texas hung 36 points on them last year as well. I just don't see Texas putting up a whole lot in this one. A also don't see them giving up a ton either as they come in ranked 29th overall, 5th vs the pass and 21st in points allowed, giving up just 19.2 ppg so far this year. Oklahoma's offense is explosive but I see them having problems scoring in this one. This game may be played in the 30's.
Georgia/Missouri Under 60: The Dawgs still have some solid backs, but Gurley was about 40% of their offense and that is hard to replace, especially with just a day or two to make adjustments to their offense. Now they will be taking on a Missouri team that has played good defense this year that is allowing just 20.6 ppg. The Bulldog defense has looked good of late, while Missouri has scored just 24 ppg in their last 2 games. I do not expect a shootout in this one.
Jesse Schule
Ottawa Senators AT Tampa Bay Lightning
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning
The Senators missed the playoffs last year, and after losing Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky this off-season, there's not much reason to expect a turnaround here this season. Ottawa lost it's opener on the road at Nashville, getting out-shot 37-20 by the Predators. Goaltender Craig Anderson saw his GAA balloon to 3.00 last season, from 1.69 the previous year. The Sens defense hasn't done him any favors, as he sees an awful lot of rubber every night. The Lightning won their home opener against Florida, scoring all three of their goals on the power-play. Success on special teams is nothing new for Tampa, as they had one of the most potent power-play units in the Eastern Conference last season. The Sens penalty killing unit was well below average last season, and they surrendered a power-play goal in the loss to Nashville in their opener. Steven Stamkos didn't find the net in the win over Florida, but it's only a matter of time before the league's most prolific scorer fills the net. The Sens have lost four of their last five visits to Tampa, and they'll likely be in way over their heads tonight.
Triple Threat Sports
TCU (+) over Baylor
Agree with the line move here, as this one opened at Baylor -11 and had been steadily moving down all week until settling at this number. Both are solid teams, TCU has played the tougher slate, and note that the Horned Frogs are 3-1 ATS as away dogs of this price range while the underdog has covered all three games in this series since these two teams became conference foes.