Ross Benjamin
Air Force @ Utah State
Play: Utah State -7.5
A lot will be made about the Utah State Aggies huge upset win at BYU last week and the potential emotional letdown possibilities versus Air Force this week. However, the other part of the equation that seems to be getting ignored is the fact Air Force comes off an upset win of their own over Navy, and that win has put them in prime position to win the Commander-in-Chief Trophy. The Aggies are just too physical a football team for the undersized Falcons. The concern over the loss of starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season ending knee injury seems to have subsided a bit. Backup quarterback Darrell Garretson was terrific in the win over BYU passing for 321-yards. Garretson also stepped in for an injured Keeton last season and went 6-1 as a starter. I look for the Aggies to wear the Falcons out as the game progresses, and pull away for a comfortable win in the 4th quarter.
Any conference home favorite of 6.5 to 34.0 in games 2 through 8 of the season, coming off an away underdog of 12.0 or more straight up win, versus an opponent playing with revenge has gone 24-1 ATS since 1982.
Dr Bob
Top 25
Strong Opinion – UNDER (47) - Oklahoma (-16½) 30 Texas 10
I was glad to see Oklahoma lose last week to TCU (I have a play on Oklahoma under 10.5 wins) and I will be rooting for them to lose this game. However, the Sooners simply don’t lose consecutive conference games, as Bob Stoops’s team is 21-0 straight up and 17-4 ATS in conference games following a conference loss since 1999, including 13-1 ATS if his team is not favored by 20 points or more. My math model favors the Sooners by 17 ½ points and I’ll add a few more to that margin based on the impressive team trend. I think the Under (47) is the better play in this game, as the Texas defense has kept some very good offenses in check this season (UCLA and Baylor) while the Longhorns’ offense tends to struggle against every better than average defensive team they face. Texas has gone Under in 4 of 5 games with the only over being by just ½ a point in a 7-41 loss to BYU. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 46 points or higher.
Georgia (-2½) 29 MISSOURI 24
I’m sure some people thought it was odd that Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley was suspended indefinitely on Thursday yet the line on this game did not move. Gurley is having an incredible season so far, averaging 155 rushing yards per game at 8.2 ypr, but backups Nick Chubb and Sony Michel have combined for 89.4 yards per game at 8.3 ypr, which is why the line didn’t move. Georgia has more than one talented back and the Bulldogs have an incredibly good offensive line blowing open holes to run through. Missouri is 0.5 yards per rushing play better than average and 1.5 yards per pass play better than average defensively but my math model still projects Georgia to amass over 400 yards at 6.1 yards per play. Georgia’s defense, which is 0.4 yppl better than average, has an advantage over a mediocre Missouri offense that’s averaged just 5.8 yppl against a slate of opponents that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. Overall the math favors Georgia by 5 points with a total of just 52 ½ points, so I’ll side with the Bulldogs and the Under.
Florida State (-24) 40 SYRACUSE 20
Florida State is not the same dominating team that they were last season, as the defense hasn’t been close to last year’s high standards. The Seminoles have up 5.5 yards per play to Oklahoma State and 6.0 yppl to both Clemson and NC State before allowed just 2.1 yppl to an abysmal Wake Forest offense last week. Overall Florida State’s defense is just 0.4 yards per play better than average and they’re fortunate the Syracuse starting quarterback Terrel Hunt was injured last week and will miss the next 4 to 6 games. Hunt was not a great passer but he has run for 324 yards on 49 scampers this season while leading an Orange attack that has been 0.8 yppl better than average this season. Backup Austin Wilson has not been impressive in his limited action this season, compiling just 74 yards on 21 pass plays and -4 yards on 3 runs. I have downgraded the Syracuse attack from +0.8 yppl to -0.2 yppl and project 380 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Orange in this game, which should still be enough to score enough points to cover a big spread.
Florida State’s offense isn’t as good as it was last season either but the Seminoles are still very good offensively, rating at 1.6 yppl better than average with Jameis Winston in the game and that attack is projected to gain 488 yards at 6.8 yppl against a Syracuse defense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average so far this season (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Florida State has a huge edge in special teams that makes up for a less than dominating advantage from the line of scrimmage but the math favors the Seminoles by only 17 points even with the Orange being about 6 points worse offensively without Hunt. I certainly would have considered Syracuse plus the points as a Best Bet if not for a 59-10 ATS big favorite situation that applies to the Seminoles in this game. However, I’ll still lean with Syracuse plus the points since my math model is more predictive than the sitautions are. I will also lean with the Over (53 points).
GEORGIA TECH (-3½) 32 Duke 31
My math model favors Georgia Tech by 5 points but the unbeaten Yellow Jackets apply to a negative 44-100-3 ATS situation that plays against teams that start the season 5-0 and Duke applies to a 30-8-1 ATS situation that plays on teams that are coming off their first loss of the season after starting 4-0. I'll lean with Duke based on the angles.
Strong Opinion - UCLA (+2½) 40 Oregon 37
Strong Opinion - OVER (70.5)
The biggest difference between this year’s Oregon team and recent editions is the absence of long time defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, who crafted a lot of very good defenses in Eugene over his career. New DC Don Pellum is obviously not Aliotti, as the Ducks don’t appear to be as prepared in their schemes as they’ve been in the past and that is showing up in Oregon’s defensive numbers. The Ducks had a compensated defensive yards per play between 4.4 yppl and 5.0 yppl every season since 2003 under Aliotti (average is 5.5 yppl to 5.6 yppl each year) and this season the Ducks have been just average defensively, as their starters have allowed 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive unit. The only game in which Oregon has allowed less than 5.6 yppl is against South Dakota, who gained 4.9 yppl against the Ducks’ starters (S. Dakota would average 4.7 yppl against an average FBS defense). UCLA is a lot better offensively than their raw numbers would suggest, as the Bruins 6.4 yards per play, which is good, have come against a schedule of good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average attack. UCLA’s numbers are skewed by their one epic offensive performance against Arizona State, when they average 10.6 yards per play, but my model dampens the affect of extreme performances and the Bruins still rate at 1.4 yppl better than average with star quarterback Brett Hundley in the game (he missed most of the Bruins’ 20-17 win against Texas). The underrated Bruins’ offense will torch Oregon’s mediocre defense, as my model projects 573 yards at 7.2 yppl for UCLA in this game.
Oregon’s offense certainly hasn’t been an issue, as the Marcus Mariota and the Ducks have averaged 44 points on 534 yards (at 7.8 yppl when Mariota is in the game) while rating at 2.0 yppl better than average after accounting for opposing defenses faced (a bit below average). Last week, in their loss to Arizona, was the first time all season that Oregon did not average at least 7.2 yppl, which they did against Michigan State’s very good defense, so I expect Mariota and the Ducks to bounce back against a UCLA defense that’s just 0.3 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense). My model projects 526 yards at 6.9 yppl for Oregon in this game, which is less than what is expected from the UCLA attack.
Overall, the math favors UCLA by 3 ½ points in this game if each team plays at the level they’ve played so far this season and that degree of difference between my model and the line results in a 56% cover rate by the Bruins at +2 ½ points. While that’s certainly worth of a small play I’d prefer to get 3 points here and I’ve decided to hold out for that before declaring this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at +2 or more and I’d take the Bruins in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more, which I think could happen. I will also consider the Over (70 ½ points) a Strong Opinion at 71 or less and as a 1-Star Best Bet at Over 69 points or less.
Auburn (-3) 32 MISSISSIPPI STATE 29
I wish I had a recommendation on this game, but the math favors Auburn by 3 1/2 points and the situations favor Mississippi State slightly. I'll have to pass.
NOTRE DAME (-16½) 41 North Carolina 23
Notre Dame applies to a 29-62-4 ATS letdown situation based on last week’s win over Stanford and the Irish also apply to a 32-72-3 ATS contrary situation that plays against unbeaten teams when facing a team with a losing spread record. Backing North Carolina here would certainly be contrary and I would have considered it if my math model didn’t give Notre Dame a 54.8% chance of covering based strictly on the math. In this case I trust the math model more than the situation and I’ll lean very slightly with the Irish at -17 or less.
Oklahoma State (-21) 38 KANSAS 13
My math model favors Oklahoma State by 20 1/2 points, so there isn't any line value here, but the Cowboys have a history of beating up on lesser teams under coach Mike Gundy. Gundy's team is 35-8-1 ATS when favored from 3 1/2 to 24 points against a team with a win percentage of .800 or less. Kansas, meanwhile, applies to a 58-103-8 ATS big home dog situation that plays against horrible offensive teams. The technical analysis has me leaning with the Cowboys.
ARIZONA (+2½) 33 Southern Cal 32
Arizona's win at Oregon catapulted the Wildcats from unranked to #10 in the nation. I don't have Arizona in my top 25 rated teams but I also don't have USC rated highly and my math picks this game even. The situations favor Arizona slightly so that's the way I'll lean.
John Ryan
Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Play: Northwestern +4
The simulator shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 3 points. Note, that these 'free' picks are significantly shorter reports than what you receive with my premium selections. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 182-107 mark for 63% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (NORTHWESTERN) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Northwestern started out slow losing their first tow games to California and Northern Illinois. They have now won 3 straight games and have a great opportunity to reach bowl eligibility status with 6+ wins by season end. Their biggest win came at Penn State two weeks ago defeating them 29-6 installed as 10 point dogs and ruining the PSU home coming party. Last week they upset Wisconsin in another upset win 20-14 installed as 7 1/2 point home dogs. They created four turnovers in that game. Minnesota has essentially now passing attack and Northwestern defense is very quick to the ball and are quite disciplined in gap management. These are the two characteristics necessary to defeat a run dominated Gopher team. Note too, that positive momentum does carry several weeks as HC Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals as the coach of Northwestern.
SPORTS WAGERS
UL Monroe +21½ over KENTUCKY
What a great spot to be fading the Wildcats of Kentucky. Despite their 4-1 overall record and 2-1 record in the conference, Kentucky is hugely flawed in many areas and that makes them extremely vulnerable as a big favorite. More than that however, is Kentucky is coming off a huge victory over South Carolina as a 4-point pooch in their own barn. Indeed it was a nice win but one they were extremely jacked up for and one that they celebrated like they just pulled off the biggest upset of the year. It was also Kentucky’s third straight conference game and they get back to conference play next week with a game against the Longhorns. Letdown spots do not get bigger than this for a Kentucky team that is trying to establish itself as a legit threat in the SEC. Let us remind you however, that South Carolina hasn’t looked this bad in a very long time.
We’re not even going to try and make a case for the Warhawks because it’s not relevant. They are a team that reside in the weak Sun Belt Conference and they are not much of a threat to win it. UL Munroe just happens to be in the right spot at the right time, as Kentucky figures to show up in body only and take this enemy extremely lightly. Big upsets happen in sports all the time because of situations exactly like this one. Watch the bottom of your television screen for “upset alerts” because this one has a great chance of being one. Again, the Wildcats celebrated for three days after beating USC, they have played three conference games in a row and they have the Longhorns on deck. This game means nothing to them. Take
Mid-Tenn State +24 over MARSHALL
The Marshall Thundering Herd have steamrolled their way through the Conference USA and non-conference opponents to a 5-0 record on the year. Many speculate that Rakeem Cato and Tommy Shuler will power this talented squad to an undefeated season and perhaps a playoff berth. Sure, the Herd are a herd of dark horses but they are exceptional nonetheless and they enter this one a roll and overpriced.
The Blue Raiders are no pushovers at 4-2. The Blue Raiders feature a quarterback in Austin Grammer that completes over 70% of his passes and also serves as a true dual threat, combining for 16 touchdowns on the year and nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage in just six games. MTSU brings their #1 ranked offense in total yardage and stellar complementing defense to Joan C. Edwards Stadium and it is not a reach to suggest that the Raiders keep this one scary close. This is the same Blue Raiders team that defeated a highly proficient quarterback in Brandon Doughty, in a 50-47 overtime shootout against Western Kentucky but they are undervalued because of their recent close encounter with Southern Mississippi. Nevertheless, MTSU has fared well against the top C-USA teams and they offer a lot of upside with this big number working in their favor against a Marshall team that has not yet been truly tested.
Texas +17 ver Oklahoma
After suffering a shocking defeat in Fort Worth, Texas last week against the now #9 TCU Horned Frogs, the Oklahoma Sooners look to rejuvenate their playoff aspirations with a much-needed win against their arch-rival the Texas Longhorns, in a renewal of the "Red River Rivalry" played in the Cotton Bowl at the Texas State Fair. The occasion is anything but amusements, as the Red River Rivalry has served as a stage for some thrilling contests between these bitter foes in years past. Last year, Oklahoma entered the contest as a 13½-point favorite, in similar regard to the way they enter this year as a big favorite and were defeated handsomely by Texas 36-20. The Sooners were stunned and this memory is still fresh in the mind of coach Bob Stoops and quarterback Trevor Knight. With their loss against TCU last week, Oklahoma may suddenly be besieged with anxiety and a loss of confidence heading in to a game with a team that has had their number.
Nevertheless, Texas enters the game on a low note, suffering a 21-point beating at the hands of their in-state rival, Baylor last week in Austin. Still, what that ‘Horns defense did was contain one of the most explosive in the game and Charlie Strong will use that positive performance as another step in the right direction to prepare his players for this one. The Red River Rivalry is one of the premier rivalries in college football and this number is an actual insult to the Longhorns that only serves to motivate more. Furthermore, the passion and intensity of this game can send this contest in any direction and it’s for those reasons that we’re happy to accept these generous points.
MISS STATE +129 over Auburn
After a convincing victory against Texas A&M at home, the Bulldogs have launched themselves in to a unanimous top-six team across the rankings. In some instances, MSU has even risen as high as #3. The Bulldogs will yet again play hosts to a top-tier SEC West team, when they host #2 Auburn in Starkville. Despite Mississippi's impressive 17-point victory against the Aggies, the Dogs enter the game as pup in their own barn, where they are an undefeated 3-0. By the numbers, Mississippi State's offense scores more points, gains more yards and retains possession longer than Auburn. The Bulldogs also possess perhaps the best QB in the nation in Dak Prescott. Prescott has been the catalyst for MSU’s victories against LSU and Texas A&M, and on the year the man has been brilliant, combining for 19 total scores and over 1,600 combined passing and rushing yards. The Prescott Express is an engine that can drive this team to 6-0 in front of a rowdy home crowd.
The Tigers sport a heralded offense of their own, anchored by Cameron Artis-Payne and Nick Marshall. However, Auburn struggled mightily on the road against their only ranked opponent on the year, Kansas State. Some have argued that if Kansas State had been more efficient in their kicking game, they would have in fact defeated the Tigers. Seemingly it is no apparition that theses Tigers are visibly beatable and the Bulldogs are going to be their toughest test to date. Keep the points. We’re playing State outright.
Dr Bob
TULANE (-3½) 21 Connecticut 18
Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee is out and Nick Montana will be under center for the Green Wave. Montana was the starter last season and was even worse than Lee has been this season. Tulane's pass attack has been 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average (5.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average team) and Montana was -1.9 yppp last season. However, Montana should have decent success against a horrible U Conn pass defense that's allowed 7.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defensive team. If Montana doesn't perform well then Tulane is in trouble since the Huskies have a great run defense that's yielded only 3.6 yards per rushing play (against teams that would average 5.0 yprp) and ranks as the 6th best run defense in the nation. Tulane should win this game if their special teams doesn't implode again (special teams has cost Tulane 6.5 points per game so far this season!!). I'll pass on this one.
Strong Opinion - Boston College (+3½) 28 NC STATE 26
This is a good matchup for Boston College, whose major weakness is a horrible pass attack that has averaged only 5.6 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 7.2 yppp to an average team. The good news for the Eagles is that they won’t have to throw very often given their outstanding rushing attack (327 yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play) should thrive against a soft NC State defensive front that has allowed 5.5 yprp to FBS teams that would average a mediocre 5.0 yprp against an average team. The better BC runs the less they throw the ball and the more likely they are to win (they ran 52 times and had just 14 pass plays in their upset of USC). My math model projects 350 rushing yards at 6.8 yprp and 460 total yards at 6.3 yards per play for BC in this game.
NC State should have pretty good offensive success too, as they try to bounce back from last week’s shutout loss to Clemson. The Wolfpack are still 0.5 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and Boston College is only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl), so NC State has a bit of an advantage when they have the ball. The math projects 372 yards at 6.1 yppl for NC State in this game and overall BC has a solid 56.8% chance of covering at +3 ½ points and a profitable 53.7% at +3. I’ll consider Boston College a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more. The books are split on this one, as about half are at +3.5 and the other half are at +3.
Strong Opinion - Toledo (+3) 33 IOWA STATE 31
I had Toledo on my list of likely Best Bets early in the week when the Rockets were a 6 point dog but this line came crashing down and even got below 3 before coming back up. Most of the line value is now gone, as my math model favors Iowa State by 1 ½ points but I still like Toledo here due to a very strong 171-70-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator that applies to the Rockets. Toledo is well equipped to take advantage of Iowa State’s defensive weakness, which is defending the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average just 4.7 yprp against an average team), as the Rockets have run for an average of 254 yards at 6.8 yprp this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp). I like the matchup and the statistical indicator that applies is based on Toledo’s likelihood to have success on the ground. I’ll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Oklahoma State (-21) 38 KANSAS 13
My math model favors Oklahoma State by 20 1/2 points, so there isn't any line value here, but the Cowboys have a history of beating up on lesser teams under coach Mike Gundy. Gundy's team is 35-8-1 ATS when favored from 3 1/2 to 24 points against a team with a win percentage of .800 or less. Kansas, meanwhile, applies to a 58-103-8 ATS big home dog situation that plays against horrible offensive teams. The technical analysis has me leaning with the Cowboys.
MARSHALL (-24) 50 Middle Tennessee State 26
This line shot up from -21 points but my math model give Middle Tennessee State a 54.5% chance of covering at +24 based solely on the math. However, MTS applies to a very negative 18-75 ATS road letdown situation while Marshall applies to a number of big home favorite momentum situations and a 35-4 ATS big home favorite revenge situation. I have reasons to like both sides here so I'll pass.
UAB (-6½) 34 North Texas 24
North Texas looks better offensively with Dajon Williams at quarterback, as he's averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt while the other two quarterbacks have averaged a combined 3.5 ypa. Even after factoring in the easier defenses faced Williams has been 2.4 yards per pass play better than the team average on his 58 pass plays. However, my math model still gives UAB a 53.5% chance of covering.
OHIO (+1) 36 Bowling Green 32
My math model favors Ohio to win this game even with less effective quarterback J.D. Sprague under center (Derrius Vick is out indefinitely). Bowling Green's no huddle offense racks up a lot of yards but they are actually 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively while the Falcons' defense is 1.3 yppl worse than average and allowing 49.2 points per game to FBS opposition. Teams with a bad defense are usually bad bets as road favorites and I certainly prefer Ohio to win this game.
Western Michigan (+2) 29 BALL STATE 26
Western Michigan missed an extra point in overtime to fall short of their upset bid against Toledo last week but the Broncos are likely to get a mini upset today. The Broncos appear to be an underrated team since losing their opening game to Purdue, as evidenced by 4 consecutive spread wins, and my math model gives them a profitable 55.3% chance of covering the spread in this game. Western Michigan is a bad defensive team (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) but the Broncos are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively, averaging 6.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack. Ball State is not as good from the line of scrimmage, as the Cardinals have been 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. I think the wrong team is favored in this one and I’d consider Western Michigan a Strong Opinion if the line get up to +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion - Toledo (+3) 33 IOWA STATE 31
I had Toledo on my list of likely Best Bets early in the week when the Rockets were a 6 point dog but this line came crashing down and even got below 3 before coming back up. Most of the line value is now gone, as my math model favors Iowa State by 1 ½ points but I still like Toledo here due to a very strong 171-70-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator that applies to the Rockets. Toledo is well equipped to take advantage of Iowa State’s defensive weakness, which is defending the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average just 4.7 yprp against an average team), as the Rockets have run for an average of 254 yards at 6.8 yprp this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp). I like the matchup and the statistical indicator that applies is based on Toledo’s likelihood to have success on the ground. I’ll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion - UNDER (49) – KENTUCKY (-21) 32 UL Monroe 10
Kentucky has a really solid defensive unit this season and the 38 points they gave up in last week’s upset win over South Carolina was really not a bad defensive performance given that they 6.2 yards per play that the Wildcats allowed was 0.2 yppl less than what South Carolina’s potent attack would average on the road against an average team. For the season Kentucky has yielded just 5.0 yards per play in 4 games against FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team and the Wildcats have limited worse than average offensive teams Tennessee-Martin, Ohio and Vanderbilt to an average of just 8 points. UL Monroe’s offense is the worst that Kentucky will face this season (in case you’re wondering Tennessee Martin’s offense is only 0.5 yppl worse than an average FBS team), as the Warhawks have managed just 18.2 points per game and 4.8 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. My model is projecting only 253 yards at 3.5 yppl for UL Monroe in this game and Kentucky is expected to gain 443 yards at 6.4 yppl. Overall, the math favors Kentucky by 24 ½ points with a total of just 41 ½ total points. Kentucky applies to a negative 48-93-5 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win, so I’m not interested in playing the side. However, I think Kentucky’s defense is underrated and UL Monroe’s defense is actually not that bad (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team) and the value in this game is on the Under. I was really close to making the Under a Best Bet here and I will if the total goes up to 51 points. As of now though, I will consider the Under a Strong Opinion and I’d make the Under a 1-Star Best Bet at 51 points or higher.
Louisiana State (+1½) 24 FLORIDA 19
LSU freshman quarterback Brandon Harris had a disastrous first start in last week’s 7-41 loss at Auburn but his season numbers are still good and I expect better results this week. LSU’s offense is predicated on running the ball and throwing in a few big pass plays each game, which is evident by their 17.9 yards per completion average. Florida’s defense is tough to run against (just 3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average defense), but the Gators do tend to give up big pass plays. The question is if Harris, or fellow quarterback Anthony Jennings can have success throwing the ball if Florida shuts down the rushing attack. LSU may not have to have too much offensive success to win this game, as Florida’s sub-par attack (0.4 yppl worse than average with Jeff Driskel in the game) is projected to average just 4.7 yards per play against an LSU defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and has been relatively much better against weaker offensive teams. The Tigers allowed 8.3 yppl to Mississippi State and 7.7 yppl to Auburn last week but they’ve dominated worse than average offensively teams and should put the clamps on Florida’s attack today. I like LSU as a dog in this one.
Strong Opinion - Arkansas State (-10) 40 GEORGIA STATE 24
I won Best Bets with both of these teams last week but this is not a good matchup for Georgia State. The Panthers’ mediocre offense (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) was able to exploit a horrible UL Lafayette defense last week but they’ll post just average numbers against a solid Arkansas State defense that’s allowed 5.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team. It’s the other side of the ball where the Red Wolves have their big advantage, as I don’t see how a really bad Georgia State defense will stop Arkansas State’s attack. Georgia State has allowed 39.6 points on 456 yards at 6.2 yppl allowed despite facing a schedule of bad offensive teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average team. Arkansas State is actually 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) but that’s 0.5 yppl better than the average of the teams that Georgia State has allowed an average of 40 points to. Arkansas State also got back star running back Michael Gordon last week and Gordon ran for 168 yards on just 15 carries and has averaged 7.1 ypr in his career. My model projects 259 rushing yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play and 538 total yards at 6.9 yppl for the Red Wolves in this game and I don’t see Georgia State keeping up - and neither does my model which gives ASU a 55.2% chance of covering. I’ll consider Arkansas State a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less.
Line Catchers
Auburn - 2.5
Auburn have reeled off five consecutive victories to start their 2014 campaign and look to take control of the SEC Western Division on Saturday in Starkville as they take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. The Tigers have had two big tests already this season, beating Kansas State 20-14 as well as proving to be the better team last week against LSU as they dominated in a 41-7 blowout.
While the Tiger offense gets all of the attention, their defense has been just as impressive through 5 games in 2014. They held LSU to an 0-for-13 mark on third down last week whilst giving up just 142 yards through the air. Auburn currently ranks 14th in the country in total defense.
Nick Marshall has passed for 755 yards with 8 TD and 1 INT so far this season and his real threat comes from his ability to run the football, he has totaled 392 yards with 4 TD on the ground while surpassing the century mark in three of the past four contests. Cameron Artis-Payne has shared the workload in this well balanced offense having had at least 22 carries in four of his five games while averaging 5.4 YPC. Last week against LSU, Artis-Payne had season highs in both rushing yards (126) and receiving yards (35).
Strange to think that the No. 2 team in the country and the defending SEC Champs might have less momentum, but Mississippi State has never been riding higher. After earning its highest AP ranking ever and landing an ESPN College GameDay appearance, the Bulldogs have spent the week in the national spotlight. Auburn, as the incumbent, is used to these type of environments and I foresee the Tigers over matching the Bulldogs on Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +110 over BALTIMORE
Ned Yost keeps coming out smelling like a rose after several questionable decisions in almost every playoff game. We could write three pages on that topic but it really does not matter because the Royals are unbeaten in playoff action this year and seem to this year’s team of destiny. In the ninth inning last night, the Royals had bases loaded with none out and failed to score. It appeared as though that could be the turning point for them in the playoffs, as all momentum shifted to the Orioles. What followed was a three-run 10th inning and it was game over. In the end, KC belted out 3 jacks while the Orioles had none. Baltimore stole two bases while the speedy Royals stole none. Amazing. Now the Orioles will feel some pressure for the first time this season. They defeated Detroit in a three games but they had to rally twice to do so, once from a large deficit. They had to rally from four down last night and while they did tie it up, the fact that they are falling behind is certainly a problem. A teams’ win expectation when spotting the opposition four runs is extremely low.
Bud Norris posted a near-4 ERA before the All-Star break with an xERA of 4.12. He was a lot better after the break with 8.5 K’s/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 47 groundball rate%. However, his surge in strikeouts is tempered by his poor 7% swing and miss rate since the ASB, so he's a risky bet to maintain his improved skill base. There are other warning signs as well. Norris posted an unsustainable 96% strand rate over his final five starts. His control can be very shaky at times, as evidenced by the 11 walks he’s issued over his past 29 innings and 52 walks overall in 165 frames. When his walks decrease, his strikeout rate declines, which suggests he’s prone to chucking it as hard as he can when he’s jammed up.
The temperatures are much cooler in these days in Baltimore and what that means is the ball does not carry like it does during those hot summer nights. The Orioles did belt out a lot of hits yesterday but that was against a very shaky James Shields. As soon as the Royals pen took over after the sixth inning, Baltimore’s bats cooled way down and we expect something similar here against Yordano Ventura. Ventura was the 4-1 winner against the Angels in Game 2. He allowed just five hits in 7 frames and the Royals pen did the rest. Ventura went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 183 innings. Little guy with a big arm (fastball touches 100 mph) and secondary offerings that are improving greatly has top-of-rotation potential and if he really is figuring out control as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. The Royals are on a serious roll that is worth backing and that’s precisely how we’ll play it.
San Francisco +111 over ST. LOUIS
Clayton Kershaw twice? No problem. All those high paid sluggers in which many had great seasons? No problem. The Cardinals eliminated the Dodgers in very impressive fashion after they set the tone in Game 1 by rallying back from a 6-1 deficit against Kershaw. The Dodgers never recovered from that but lost in that victory was the shaky start by Adam Wainwright in which he allowed 11 hits and six runs in four innings. Wainwright was also very shaky in the All-Star game among other starts this season. Wainwright’s line drive rate of 24% this year was the highest of his career. He was aided greatly all season by a high 78% strand rate and over his last five starts of the year, that strand rate was a very fortunate 91%. Word is that he’s dealing with a nagging elbow issue and we’re not convinced that he can retain the level of production that he’s produced this year. Wainwright is good but he’s been prone to more disasters than before and he’s certainly the second best pitcher in Game 1.
Current Cardinals have 19 hits in 107 career AB’s against Madison Bumgarner for a BA of .178. Of those 19 hits, only one left the yard and 14 of them were singles. Bumgarner was the game's most skilled starting pitcher in August and September and he reached that level with an elite 17% line-drive rate, 11 K’s.9 and 0.6 BB/9. His 15% swing and miss rate and 70% first pitch strike rate gave full support to his elite command. Bumgarner is locked in right now and while the Cardinals deserve all the credit in the world for defeating the Dodgers, let’s not ignore that the Giants defeated the best pitching staff in the game and the team with the best overall record in the NL. In these riveting playoff games, we’ll stick to playing the value and Bumgarner and the Giants offer it up again.
Bob Balfe
San Francisco Giants +105
Now this is a true playoff matchup between two great pitchers. How can you predict which team hits the monster homerun or commits that crucial error. You need a little luck in these games as for the most part they all come down to one play. Bumgarner has just been lights out in the postseason and when all else is equal I will roll with him. Take the Giants
Tom Barton
LSU vs Florida
Pick: Under 47
The Tigers fans are up in arms screaming how bad their team is that even Les Miles has been mentioned to be fired ... well LSU here's Florida where the fans have been screaming for a change it seems like for years. What a fall from grace in such a short time for these two teams but while they flounder there is still value in the lines to be had. The Gators were able to somewhat rally behind their backup QB last week and pull out a win but after his suspension and off the field issues all week in Gainsville the man who "lost the team" is back under center in Jeff Driskoll. Florida managed just 10 points last week and struggling to beat Kentucky put things into perspective. Sure a 3-1 record with a tight game for a half against Bama is nothing to be ashamed of but you have to watch the games. Florida offensively is a mess and defensively looks strong. Driskoll is completing just 54% of his passes, has just 5 TDs to 6 picks and in the last two weeks that number goes to 1 TD to a staggering 5 picks. LSU meanwhile have problems of their own after scoring just one TD vs. Auburn's defense. Their two headed QB approach has worn thin and their high scoring wins have come against really bad competition. This is a game where whoever reaches 20 first should win the only thing holding me from a large play is the offense is so bad that turnovers can kill us.
LT Profits
Boston College vs NC State
Pick: Boston College +3.5
The visiting Boston College Eagles appear to have an edge both offensively and defensively in this contest, making them dangerous underdogs as they visit the NC State Wolfpack. Granted the Eagle are one-dimensional offensively ranking sixth in the country in rushing with 316.8 yards per game on the ground with their quarterback Tyler Murphy being a better runner than passer, but that approach worked while rushing for 452 yards in a non-conference upset of USC a few weeks ago and it should work again vs. an NC State run defense ranked 78th allowing 171.0 rushing yards per game. NC State looked good offensively vs. weak non-conference foes but the Wolfpack amassed just 154 total yards at Clemson last week and now face a BC team ranked 13th in the nation in total defense allowing only 304.4 yards per contest. NC State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a straight up loss by more than 20 points.
Chase Diamond
Auburn vs. Mississippi St
Play: Mississippi St +3
This play features the 5-0 Auburn at the 5-0 Mississippi State. This game is a chance for Mississippi State to step up into the spotlight here at home and on National T.V. they also have a revenge factor from last years last second loss at Auburn. No team comes in any hotter then Miss State having won 9 games straight and is looking to take the number one spot in the nation. 59% of the public is backing Auburn here but Miss State is the better team and we are getting great line value here. I talked to a few local books and all expect to clean up on this game here. Take Miss State plus the points but I expect a outrite winner here.
Tony Karpinski
Penn State vs. Michigan
Play: Penn State +1.5
Gary Nova just put up 400 passing yards against Michigan. If the O-line can protect Hackenberg, Penn State should be able to put up big numbers. The Penn St Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS as dogs off a double-digit ATS loss and also had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Head Coach Franklin is 9-3 ATS versus conference opponent off SU loss. Wolverines: 0-4 SUATS in this series, and 1-3 ATS last four as a host in this series. With UM coach Brady Hoke squarely on the hot season after his Wolverines have lost their last 10 games in a row to winning opponents, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Penn State. Thank you and good luck as always.
Will Rogers
Winnipeg Jets vs. San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks -180
The Winnipeg Jets are coming off a win in their season opener, but the news isn't all good for the Jets, as they lost their best player Evander Kane to an injury. The Sharks are coming off a 4-0 shutout win at L.A., executing revenge against the defending Stanley Cup champs. The home team should get another win tonight against an inferior opponent.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - Antti Niemi stopped all 34 shots he faced against the Kings, getting the season started with a shutout. He's a perennial Vezina candidate, and finished last year tied for second in the league with 39 wins. His backup Alex Stalock is also solid, posting a record of 12-5 with a 1.87 GAA last season. Ondrej Pavelec on the other had has been shaky for the Jets.
2. Special Teams - The Sharks converted on one of their four power play chances against the Kings, while killing all five penalties. The Jets didn't just fail to score with the man advantage, they gave up a short-handed goal in the win over Arizona.
3. X-Factor - The Jets are 4-10-2 in the last 16 meetings in this series.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the UCLA Bruins plus the small number against Oregon in a battle of two teams coming in off of a loss. Those losses weren't as bad as they might have appeared when they were happening because everyone in this conference is losing.
The only downside for me is the fact that Oregon hasn't lost back-to-back since 2007 and has dominated the Bruins over the years, winning by an average of 17 points per meeting.
What's exciting about today's game is that we have two very talented QBs who can beat you with their arm and/or their legs and they have the talent around them to help them do whatever they need to do to win.
The biggest detriment to the Oregon offensive attack is that banged up offensive line... and that can't be taken lightly. Did you see Oregon almost lose in Pullman two weeks ago? Did you see them get man-handled at home by Arizona last week? This wasn't a receiver or RB or Mariota issue... this was an offensive line issue as apparently they didn't recruit a lot of depth there.
This should be a good game to watch, but in the end I believe UCLA won't lose two straight home games. Take the Bruins over the Ducks as your free play of the day.
3♦ UCLA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to lay the lumber with the visiting Cowboys of Oklahoma State as they face the downtrodden Kansas Jayhawks.
KU put the KO on coach Charie Weis, and now go with interim coach Clint Bowen whose team has been able to score just one offensive touchdown in their pair of conference games to date, and they facing an Okie State team that has posted 31 points or better in all 5 of their games this season.
The Cowboys have covered 2 of their last 3 when laying double-digits, and they are on a 10-2 series spread run the past dozen meetings against the Jayhawks.
State has also punched the ticket in 11 of the past 12 meetings in the Sunflower State.
New coach, same result, as KU gets clobbered once again.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE