Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 12

DUNKEL INDEX

CFL

BC at Calgary
The Lions look to bounce back from their 31-17 loss to Saskatchewan last week and build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following a SU defeat. BC is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: BC (+7)

Game 291-292: BC at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 118.782; Calgary 120.544
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 2; 49
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: BC (+7); Under

MLB

LA Dodgers at St. Louis
The Dodgers look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games when the total is set at 6 1/2 or lower. LA is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130)

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.547; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.025
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 905-906: Detroit at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.873; Boston (Lester) 15.902
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under

NHL

NY Islanders at Nashville
The Predators look to build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games versus the Islanders. Nashville is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-120)

Game 51-52: Boston at Columbus (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.599; Columbus 11.085
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under

Game 53-54: Edmonton at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.342; Toronto 10.330
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+145); Over

Game 55-56: Philadelphia at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.754; Detroit 10.812
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Under

Game 57-58: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.226; Tampa Bay 11.720
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Over

Game 59-60: Colorado at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.422; Washington 10.657
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under

Game 61-62: Buffalo at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.573; Chicago 12.084
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-240); Over

Game 63-64: NY Rangers at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.343; St. Louis 11.287
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 65-66: NY Islanders at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.356; Nashville 11.864
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-120); Under

Game 67-68: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.286; Minnesota 12.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Under

Game 69-70: Montreal at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.329; Vancouver 11.084
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+115); Under

Game 71-72: Ottawa at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.256; San Jose 13.178
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-180); Over

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Alabama vs. KentuckyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kentucky +27½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Needless to say, I respect Alabama. I successfully backed the Tide in each of the last two national championship games, big wins over LSU and Notre Dame. I'm also 1-0 when playing on the champs this season, backing them when they blanked Ole Miss by a 25-0 margin.
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That said, I feel this number is a little large. The Tide have only played away from home once; a game ultimately decided by seven points. Overall, four of their five games have been decided by 25 or less. The only team they beat by more than that was Georgia State, a 45-3 win when laying more than 50.
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The Wildcats covered for us at South Carolina last week and I backed them earlier in the season when they trounced Miami Ohio. While they're obviously a ways off from starting to play in BCS bowl games, I do believe that this is an improved Kentucky team.
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While Alabama is in a class of its own, the Wildcats have now faced Louisville, Florida and South Carolina the past three weeks. None of those teams were able to beat them by more than 17. (Kentucky lost by 14, 17 and 7.)
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With the cover last week, the Cats are now 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range. I think the points are worth a look. Consider Kentucky

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon St vs Washington StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Saturday night's Pac-12 showdown between the Beavers and the Cougars features two of the top 3 quarterbacks in the country (statistically). Oregon State's Sean Mannion leads the nation in passing yards with 2018, while Connor Halliday is third with 1993. The Beavers lost their season opener to Eastern Washington, but have since won four straight. The Cougars were blown out at home by Stanford two weeks ago, but bounce back with a lop-sided win over Cal this weekend. Both teams rely on an all out aerial attack, while neither team has had much success defensively. Oregon State is coming off a bye week, after a blowout win over the Colorado Buffaloes in Oregon at the end of September. The Beavers have likely used the added time off to put together an elaborate bag of tricks on offense. Oregon State has won five of the last six meetings, and each of their last three visits to Washington. Two of those three games saw the total go over the number, and all three were blowouts, decided by 20+ points. With the Beavers defense not what it was in past seasons, this one might be a little closer, and both teams should find the endzone early and often.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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HOUSTON (-10) over MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Under second-year Head Coach Tony Levine, the underrated Cougars have very quietly put together a nice run this season, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. In fact, Houston is one of just six teams in the nation – along with Oregon, Baylor, Houston, UCLA, Missouri and Wisconsin – to be perfect at the betting window this season and dating back to last season the team has covered six straight games. The offense is extremely balanced, with the two-headed RB combination of Ryan Jackson and Kenneth Farrow piling up the yards on the ground while dangerous WR Deontay Greenberry, who chose Houston over Notre Dame, has become a nightmare match-up for opposing teams ever since he was moved to the inside position in spring camp. Houston is in a great scheduling situation after having a bye last week and over the years they have punished inferior opponents, going 20-7 ATS against teams with losing records. Lay the points.
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UNLV (-9.5) over HawaiiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rebels have suffered through some tough times over the last decade, but against the spread they have one of the strongest home-road dichotomies in college football. Since 2003, UNLV is a dismal 18-49 (27%) ATS on the road, but a respectable 32-27 (54%) when playing in the shadows of The Strip. Head Coach Bobby Hauk’s team is playing with confidence, having won three in a row – after notching just two victories all of last season – and now faces a winless Hawaii team that is 8-22 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. Lay the points with the Rebels.

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh +9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This one was pretty simple. Yes, I am somewhat concerned that giving up all those points to Duke is an issue, but V-Tech simply has trouble scoring, especially if you put it on the shoulders of Logan Thomas. All of a sudden that 41-13 loss at home to Florida State doesn't look so bad, given what the Noles have done since. The Hokies struggled to put away North Carolina, a team I think is far less rounded than Pittsburgh, and they beat G-Tech on the road, which is all well and good, but are we really seeing what G-Tech is NOT this season, given what Miami did to them and what the line for their road game this week is? The Panthers have had two weeks to get ready for this game, and perhaps shore up their defense, and although they did give up all those points early, they've got an experienced quarterback and DO at least have a road win. The last 20 home games, VT is 7-10-3 ATS, while the last 20 road games the Panthers are 13-7. This line is simply a reaction to what WAS and not what IS, IMO. Even if the Hokies get ahead, they simply don't have the killer instinct, nor will Beamer let Thomas chuck the ball all over the yard, which simply gives tremendous value to the point here.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana vs. Michigan StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is Indiana’s best team since 2007, and quite possibly their best team since the 1993 squad that was ranked in the Top 25 and met Virginia Tech in their rare bowl game. Head coach Kevin Wilson has been building towards the 2013 campaign since he got the job following the Hoosiers 2010 season.
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Wilson has developed a deep roster loaded with upperclassmen for the first time in his tenure in Bloomington. But the markets weren’t impressed with Indiana’s early season struggles against the likes of Navy and Missouri. Even last week’s impressive 20 point blowout win over Penn State hasn’t afforded the Hoosiers the appropriate level of betting market respect.
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Indiana’s offense is ranked #9 in the country, averaging 535 yards per game. They’ve averaged 37 points per game (at least 28 in every contest) against FBS competition, not including the 73 they hung on Indiana State in their opener. QB Nate Sudfeld is averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt, RB’s Tevin Coleman and Stephen Houston are both gaining more than six yards per rush, and four different receivers have caught at least two TD passes.
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Indiana gave Michigan State everything they could handle last year, when the Hoosiers were a 4-8 bottom feeder while the Spartans were enjoying another bowl bound campaign for the sixth consecutive season. They hung 27 points on Mark Dantonio’s strong stop unit – only Nebraska scored more against Sparty’s defense in 201 -- in a tight, competitive four point loss.
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Michigan State’s anemic offense makes them a poor favorite behind the #100 ranked offense in college football. The results don’t lie – they’ve been home chalk against FBS competition twice this year, failing to sniff a pointspread cover either time, scoring only 26 against Western Michigan and 21 against South Florida. It’s surely worth noting that Western Michigan and South Florida are a combined 2-7 ATS in their other nine games combined, and eight of their nine opponents scored more than Michigan State did against them.
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Indiana’s defense was torched repeatedly in each of Wilson’s first two seasons on the job, allowing 36 points per game over that two year span. But we’ve seen this stop unit play extremely well twice in their last three games, growing up right before our eyes. Facing the sluggish Spartans attack is a prime recipe for continued defensive improvement for the Hoosiers, giving them a good chance to hang within the number here. Take Indiana.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mississippi St -10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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An overrated MAC team on the road for the first time in nearly a month facing an SEC school with a powerful track record in situations like this puts me on Mississippi State against Bowling Green.
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Bowling Green is 5-1. Impressive right? Not so fast. The Falcons' victories have come against Murray State, Tulsa, Kent State, Akron and UMass. Mississippi State just got done playing LSU. The Bulldogs were ahead of the Tigers entering the fourth quarter.
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When the Falcons last traveled, back on Sept. 14, they were hammered by Indiana, 42-10. The Hoosiers, a middle of the road Big Ten School, put up more than 600 yards of offense while holding the Falcons without an offensive touchdown.
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Under Dan Mullen, the Bulldogs have hammered non-conference foes at home. They've won by a combined 246 points in their last six non-conference games at home, an average victory margin of 41 points. This includes a 62-7 victory against Troy and a 51-7 win over Alcorn State this season.
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The Bulldogs have covered 11 of their past 15 home contests. They are 10-1 ATS as home chalk.
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Fifth-year senior Tyler Russell is back at quarterback after suffering a concussion in Mississippi State's first game. His next touchdown throw will set a school record for most touchdown passes in a career. The Bulldogs also will use dual threat Dak Prescott at quarterback. He leads the team in rushing. Those two should have no problem operating against a vulnerable Bowling Green secondary that has only one interception
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The Bulldogs can't take a loss here as they try to earn a bowl bid. They have an easy SEC game on tap next week at home against Kentucky. So they should be fully focused. Look for the class difference to show up in an easy Mississippi State victory.

Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arkansas / South Carolina Over 50.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Clowney, no Clowney we are not impressed with the Gamecocks Defense. The fact is this team is 7-0 OVER in their last 7 conference games and that is pretty strange for the SEC. These two have played OVER at a 6-1 clip their last 7 times they have met. But Trends are idiots mostly and the fact is here at home the Hogs can score points and South Carolina can do that anywhere. There are other reasons that my number is higher than what books have posted but most of those are not something I want Books to be privy to. Interesting to note that this number as of this writing is anywhere from 50.5 to as high as 52 at Pinny. Does that tell us something? Perhaps. As always I am not sure where this number is going as predicting that is becoming harder and harder with CFB Totals. But the next real key number other than 51 is 54 and I doubt it goes there. Therefore I am playing it now.

Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma -13FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is almost a Shoe In that this is Mack Browns last Red River War Game in the Cotton Bowl as coach of Texas, in the Annual Showdown at the Texas State Fair with hated rival Oklahoma. In many ways this is the biggest game of the year for Texas, and equally important to Oklahoma each and every year.
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Do not put a ton of stock into the Texas – Iowa State game and the last minute 31-30 win Texas endured. Iowa State is very difficult to beat in Ames, it is a very tough venue to go in and win and they have knocked off numerous ranked teams in there under their excellent head coach Paul Rhodes. While it may be hard to motivate players for Iowa State on a Thursday road game, it is not hard to motivate a team as a 2 touchdown underdog in the annual Red River Shootout. With 19 starters back on offense and a refocus of sorts after a bad start it is hard to fathom that Texas comes in here and lays down for this one. Unfortunately they would have to play a perfect game just to cover this number.
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Blake Bell is a dual threat for Oklahoma, and remember Texas Allowed BYU QB Hill 259 yards on the ground, it is scary what Bulldozer Bell for the Sooners may do here. Texas has lost 3 in a row in this series in Dallas, and while Oklahoma is clearly the better team, and QB Ash is most likely out for Texas, Case McCoy is still a capable QB and Texas has the talent here to cover this number in a hugely emotional game for them as this is no doubt unless Texas goes undefeated the rest of the year, this is most likely Mack Browns appearance in this game as a head coach, and do not think for a minute the Texas Players do not understand this. All that said, there are matchup issues all over the place in this one, OU simply too strong on both sides of the ball in the trenches, and they have more playmakers and are vastly better coached.
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At days end Oklahoma clearly the better team, and unless the wheels fall off win this game should win, but Texas has a bitter taste after the last 2 years in this heated series with losses of 63-21 and 55-17. The reason for those losses, Bob Stoops versus Mack Brown in the coaching arena, and that has not changed. Texas Played 2 good teams all year, and lost top both of them, and I say BYU is good, and in the same breath say Oklahoma is great! Stoops sends Mack out of the Cotton Bowl with his tail between his legs again, Texas’s defense should get shredded.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon vs. WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Huskies 31-28 loss last week at No. 5 Stanford was heartbreaking because the Huskies dominated the Cardinal statistically . It was extremely frustrating for the coach and team, and now Im betting this side comes out with a chip on their shoulders. This contest means so much to Washington ...as a win would give them the much needed respect they so badly desire. Oregon argueably the most explosive team in football comes into this tilt with a swagger, and maybe a little to confident. The high flying Ducks have a big target on their backs .Thats never a good thing. Im also betting, the Huskies leave everything on the field this Saturday and get us the all important cover. Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at Arkansas St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arkansas St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas State will win this game by 26 or more points. They are coming off a BYE week and playing a very weak Idaho Vandals team. SIm projects that AS will score more than 28 points and will allow between 7 and 7.5 yards per play. In past games, Idaho is just 1-4 ATS this season, 5-16 ATS the past three seasons, and 47-82 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. Moreover, Idaho is just 0-3 ATS this season, 0-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 3-23 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed between 7 and 7.5 yards per play. AS is a resounding 2-0 ATS this season, 17-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 41-16 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. They are also a perfect 2-0 ATS this season and 12-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining better than 6.5 yards per play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-9 ATS mark for 84% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ARKANSAS ST) off a bye week. Simple to follow and is already 4-0 ATS this season.

AC DineroFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama vs. KentuckyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kentucky +28FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite the record, Kentucky has played some decent football against some really good teams (Florida, South Carolina, and Louisville). They do get the short end of the schedule having to play a 3rd straight tough physical game against a very good Alabama team. Obviously, the talent level is a mismatch, with the Crimson Tide's potent offense and a defense that is starting to roll. But, that is why there is a 4 TD spread. The up tempo offense Kentucky has employed this season has produced some decent results: 5.0 ypc and 7.5 ypa. But they need to get better converting on 3rd down. The main concern with the Wildcat defense is they do give up some big plays. If they can limit those, they should be in decent shape as they only give up 36% on 3rd down. Surprisingly, the potent Alabama offense is only converting 42% on 3rd down. With an advantage in the kicking game, Kentucky should be able to stay within 4 TDs in front of an inspired home crowd this weekend.

Chris Jordan

My free winner for Saturday's college football card is on Ole Miss plus the points against Texas A&M and Johnny Football. I don't care how bad consecutive road losses to No. 1 Alabama and Auburn have the Rebels reeling a bit, the ninth-ranked Aggies are about to have their hands full. I know Texas A&M has the third-best offense in the nation, averaging 561.8 yards per game, and also brings in the fourh-best scoring offense that averages 49.2 points per game.

But just as easy as it is to back the Aggies' high-powered offense, you cannot ignore the fact the Texas A&M's defense is one of the worst in the nation. With Ole Miss returning home, the Rebels will be able to match wits offensively, keep things close and stay within striking distance.

Remember, the Rebels played four of their first five games with a suitcase in hand, and now get to play their next six at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, beginning with A&M. And the Rebels are no slouch on offense, as they rank near middle of the Southeastern Conference, averaging 427.8 yards per game.

I'm taking a shot here with the underdog, and it might not hurt to buy the half point and take 7' with Ole Miss.

1♦ MISSISSIPPI

Brett Atkins

Last Sunday anyone who said the Dallas Cowboys could hang with the Denver Broncos might have been considered crazy. Out of their mind. Mui Loco!

Well, if the same can be said about the Washington Huskies at home against the high-fying Oregon Ducks, then call me loco, cause I think the home underdog is a great play here. I mean, sure, Oregon is dangerous and it doesn't get any simpler for an offensive juggernaut like that. And yes, Oregon is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS this season already. But does any of that serve as motivation for the Washington Huskies, who play in one of the college football's best venues - just like the NFL's Seattle Seahawks?

The Huskies are sure to be motivated for this game, an annually anticipated border rivalry. And while everyone is drooling over Baylor and Oregon, you better pay attention to what this Washington team has done this season, so far, as it's gone three-and-out on offense a mere six times in 65 drives this season (9.2 percent), second only to Baylor.

Coach Steve Sarkisian has these Huskies playing well, they're very talented, and they'll undoubtedly be out to prove they can hang with Oregon's explosive offense. And for the record, I don't think the Ducks have been threatened by a quality team this season, and this is a going to be one of those game they'll be tested. You can never go wrong in taking a double-digit home underdog in college football, and gauging Washington's balance on both sides of the ball, I say we take the points.

5♦ WASHINGTON