Strike Point SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LSU (-7) over FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's another crucial SEC matchup, and this time around it's not the Tigers that are lacking offensive weapons. It seems like in years past LSU's offense was always trying to keep up with the team's superb defense. However, this season the Baton Rogue Bengals have the playmakers to continue putting up points as they have all season long. On the other hand, I think Florida lacks the necessary parts to compete with LSU in Death Valley. I don't think this one will be in single-digits, and the home side will prevail as the chalk in this meeting. LSU did well to avoid a letdown at Mississippi State a week after their tough road loss at Georgia. With a win under their belts last Saturday, they stand in good position to take care of business and knock off UF in this one. Lay the points with the home side in this conference clash of power teams.
Jason SharpeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas (-6.5) over Middle Tennessee StSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nice revenge spot here for North Texas as they come in off a 17-point defeat last year to MTSU. North Texas is off back-to-back losses, but don't be fooled by their last game result; the Mean Green outplayed Tulane in their three-point loss. UNT held Tulane to just 227 yards of total offense in the game but was done in by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown and a 59-yard interception return also for a score for Tulane. North Texas also played Georgia very close the game before as they were tied in the middle of the third quarter in that contest. UNT has gone 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and are a very strong 13-6 against the number following a loss.
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MTSU comes in off a loss last week to East Carolina. That was the second straight defeat for the Blue Raiders, who were hammered the week before by 27 points to BYU despite benefitting from five Cougars turnovers in that game. That loss was an alarming defeat in my eyes as teams don't usually get beat that bad when they hold a +4 edge in the turnover department. MTSU has covered just two of their last eight games overall coming into this one here.
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Look for a motivated home favorite here seeking revenge. Take North Texas minus the points.
Wunderdog
Iowa State at Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech -14
Don't look now but the Texas Tech Red Raiders are off to a 5-0 start on the season. This is a team that has had a long history of offense, but the Red Raiders are doing it on defense this year, allowing a stingy 13.8 points per game. The offense certainly has not taken a back seat either as they are ranked #13 in the country, producing 520 yards per contest and 41.8 ppg. Iowa State is simply ill equipped to hang in this game as they rank #67 offensively at a pedestrian 27 ppg allowed. The Cyclones are also in a tough mental spot having lost at home last week to Texas 31-30 as the Longhorns scored a TD with inside of a minute to play. The Red Raiders have been a momentum-based team that is now 6-0 ATS in their last six when following a 20+ point win in their last contest. The Hawkeyes are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. top-level teams (teams at .750 or better). Play on Texas Tech.
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Boston College vs. ClemsonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Clemson -24FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers are led by QB Taj Boyd who can run as well as find the open man downfield. Boston College was able to stay close to Florida State but that was in Boston. Dabo Sweeney's defense is average but their offense should be able to put up 40+. Clemson won by 22 at home back in 2011 vs. the Eagles and is more productive on offense this year and in the hunt for the ACC crown. Take Clemson -24.
Bob HarveyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 56½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Before the season we reviewed the Texas roster that had 18 returning starters, a wealth of experience dating back before 2012 and an incredible amount of talent, with a defense that looked like it could be what we saw from the squad in 2011 and an offense that should be able to match if not improve upon an explosive 2012. This Longhorns team looked like it should win the Big 12 and rank among the top ten in the country. Before the season, we would have had Texas favored to win this neutral field game outright. Somewhere along the line, Manny Diaz, health issues and unrest got in the way. Blowout losses at BYU and to Ole Miss and narrow victories against Kansas State and at Iowa State ("allegedly") and now we are put in a position simply to defend Texas as being able to keep the score within two touchdowns against Oklahoma.
Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon -14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have played Washington a couple of times this season, cashing when they won and covered against Boise State and Arizona. But the Huskies are facing what I have ranked as the #1 team in my CFB power rankings. And making matters worse for the home team is that they're a little banged-up...a little bruised following last week's physically draining game against Stanford. The offensive line gave up five sacks and QB Keith Price will play this one with a sore thumb. That loss hurt - we heard Washington HC Steve Sarkisian still talking about the game as late as Monday morning. When you take on the Ducks, you'd better be focused as soon as the previous week's game goes final. Oregon has topped 50 points in five straight games and it has already been reported, but worth repeating that Oregon has won 17 games with Marcus Mariota behind center and all 17 wins came by double-digits. Oregon has won 9 straight in the series, covering 8 of those games. And while this is the best Washington version we have seen in a while, they just don't matchup well with the Ducks, especially off the Stanford loss. The series continues to be lopsided...I'm recommending a play on Oregon minus the points.
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Oklahoma vs. TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s the Battle of the Alamo all over again… only this time Mack Brown is channeling Colonel William Barrett Travis, drawing a line in the sand while asking his outnumbered Longhorns to defend their outpost against Bob Stoops and his hordes of Sooner troops. Unfortunately for Ol’ Mackie, Travis and his volunteers were ultimately massacred after a 13-day siege much like Oklahoma has stampeded the Longhorns the last two years (63-21 and 55-17) in their annual Red River Rivalry. So will Brown take the bullet today after a third straight series beatdown? That’s open for debate, despite Oklahoma’s recent death grip on this longtime rivalry. The Sooners have won and covered three straight, plus they’re an impressive 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS when entering the contest undefeated, including 3-0 ATS as double-digit chalk. Mack doesn’t aid his cause with a poor 18-34 ATS effort against unbeaten foes, including 1-5 SUATS when his team is .600 or less. However, despite the lopsided series history in the Sooners’ favor, they are a 5-0 ‘Fat Cat’ Smart Box fade and we’re obligated not to go outside this Box! In truth, the feeling here is the much-scrutinized 19 returning Longhorn starters (minus QB David Ash) who have taken it on the chops each of the last three years will finally step up today. Like another famous defender of the Alamo, Jim Bowie, said after surveying the thousands of Mexican soldiers surrounding the compound: “We would rather die in these ditches than give them up to the enemy.” Yes, the Longhorns are outmanned today but throwing a major scare into No. 10 Oklahoma might be just enough to save Mackie’s job for another week or so. Remember the Alamo. And remember to take the points. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.
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Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5FOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nittany Lions are coming off of an uninspired performance last week at Indiana and I'm still kicking myself for not playing the Hoosiers last week, but I like Penn State to bounce back in this big game against the Wolverines. Michigan is undefeated, but they have hardly looked like world beaters so far this season. Michigan Head Coach Brady Hoke has taken care of business at home where the Wolverines have not lost a game since Hoke arrived at Ann Arbor, but on the road this Michigan team is just 5-5 straight up and 4-6 against the spread. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner is capable of making big plays with his arm and his legs, but he is also capable of making poor decisions as his five interceptions in two games against Akron and UConn will indicate. PSU's defense got Mike Hull back on the field last week after missing time with an injury. Hull is the captain of the defense and with that game under his belt last week I expect a better performance from this Nittany Lion defense at home. Beaver Stadium should be rocking with well over 100,000 in attendance and this is the first time this season that Penn State has been a dog on the big board. I like the Lions to roar in this one, take the points.
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Mississippi Rebels +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams played last season and that was a game that Ole Miss could have easily won as a 13.5 point home underdog. The Rebels led 27-17 before Johnny Football and the Aggies made some incredable plays to get back in the game and eventually get the win. Mississippi was pretty much even with the Aggies in first downs and yardage, but six turnovers were the Rebels downfall. The Rebels have not lived up to high expectations so far this season and have lost back to back games, but I like them to battle in this game. Ole Miss has not handled the favorite role very well, but now they are the underdog that doesn't have the weight of winning on their shoulders. The Rebels are solid on both sides of the ball and should take this one down to the wire. The Aggies are scoring a ton of points with Johnny Football under center throwing to wide receiver Mike Evans but their defense is still a huge concern that is allowing their opponents to gain more than 100 yards over their season averages. Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace has the ability to match scores with Manziel and Wallace has a huge weapon to throw to as well in receiver Donte Moncrief. Take the points.
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Washington State Cougars -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This should be a Pac12 shootout. The Oregon State tandem of quarterback Sean Mannion and wide receiver Brandon Cooks are statistically the best in the nation but the Washington State offense led by quarterback Connor Halliday is 8th in the country in passing and have played a much tougher schedule. Oregon State's schedule has not been very tough. They Beavers actually dropped their first game of the season at home against Eastern Washington before reeling off four straight wins against Hawaii, Utah, San Diego State and Colorado. The Cougars lost a tough opener at Auburn defeated USC and also have played Stanford. The Washington State defense is an underrated unit that ranks 35th in the country in points against. The Beavers defense is 92nd in the nation in scoring defense allowing over 31 points per game despite playing a weaker schedule. The Beavers have also been allowing a lot of passing yards against opposing offenses that are not known for having a good passing game so there is a very strong chance that this secondary gets shredded by the Mike Leach WSU passing attack. I expect the home field advantage and the better defense to give the Cougars the win in this game and cover this short number. Lay the points.
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Northwestern vs. WisconsinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WisconsinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern is in a tough spot this week, traveling to face the Badgers in a series that has been dominated by the home side over the years. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right this time around, installing Wisconsin as a considerable favorite.
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While the Badgers were idle last week, Northwestern was involved in a barn-burner at home against Ohio State - a game the Wildcats ultimately lost by a 40-30 score. I simply don't like the progression, or lack thereof, we've seen from Northwestern this season. After winning its first two games handily against Cal and Syracuse, it has been rather unimpressive over a three-game stretch, posting an 0-3 ATS mark.
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Wisconsin is a modest 3-2 SU to start the season, but it shouldn't be knocked for either of its two losses. Those came on the road against a pair of still underrated squads in Arizona State and Oregon State. It's certainly worth noting that the Badgers gave both opponents all they could handle, going 1-0-1 ATS and losing by just nine points combined.
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The Badgers are getting it done in all facets of the game this season, averaging 7.7 yards per play on offense while giving up a stingy 4.2 yards per play defensively. While the Wildcats do pose a significant challenge, I believe home field will prove to be the difference for Wisconsin.
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Note that the last time these two teams met was back in 2010, when the Badgers rolled to a 70-23 victory right here at home.
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With back-to-back trips to Illinois and Iowa on deck, the Badgers must realize the importance of this game in the Big Ten picture. Northwestern gets a home game against Minnesota next, so I'm not sure they'll be able to match Wisky's sense of urgency on Saturday.
Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida vs. LSUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Florida +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game will be a match-up of strength versus strength with Florida’s stout defense facing LSU’s explosive offense. The Gators got the best of the Tigers last season in their 14-6 win, and while we don’t expect that same type of low-scoring grinder, we do expect this game to go right down to the wire. Florida’s defense has been phenomenal this season. The Gators are holding teams to just 12.2 points per game on 217 yards of total offense per game. They are allowing only 3.7 yards per play which ranks them #2 in the country and only 4.6 yards per pass attempt which ranks them #3 in the country. The Gators run for 192 yards per game while averaging 46.8 rushes per game. They’ll have success against a weak LSU rush defense that has allowed every opponent except Kent State to gain over 100 yards on the ground. LSU allowed over 200 rushing yards to both Auburn and Mississippi State. The Tigers are allowing 4.3 yards per rush overall and 5.0 yards per rush to SEC opponents this season.
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Florida’s ability to run the ball successfully will keep the potent LSU offense off the field. The Tigers have scored 35 points or more in every game; they are averaging 45.5 points on 489 yards of offense per game. However, they are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class here against Florida. The defenses that LSU has faced allow an average of 28.6 points per game which is 16.4 points per game more than Florida allows. Under HC Les Miles, LSU is 9-6 SU but only 4-10-1 ATS at home as a single digit favorite or underdog. Two of the ATS wins and the push came in the underdog role which means LSU is just 2-9 ATS at home as a single digit favorite under HC Miles. Florida is off back-to-back easy wins where they didn’t expend too much emotion or energy. The opposite is true for LSU as they were involved in a high-scoring shootout loss at Georgia two weeks ago and last week they were in a dogfight with Mississippi State for three quarters before scoring 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Gators’ defense and their rushing match-up edge along with the intangible edge make them a live underdog in this spot. We’ll take Florida plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.
Freddy Wills
Memphis vs. Houston
Play: Memphis +9½
Houston has been extremely lucky to start the season and everyone is automatically assuming this is the same Houston team that hung up 50+ points on a regular basis, but I'm still not convinced considering Houston largely benefited last game from turnovers against Texas San Antonio, and got lucky in Rice who lost their start offensive player early in that game. In both games they were -9 minutes in time of possession.
Memphis meanwhile just comes off a game in which they hung with Central Florida leading 17-10 in the 4th quarter when they allowed 2 TD's in 9 seconds to go on and lose 24-17. Memphis defense held UCF to just 297 yards, but the 4 turnovers cost them. Memphis should be able to runt he ball and pass against Houston whose defense is not up to par. Memphis has a very balanced offense, but it's their defense that's catching a lot of respect.
Memphis is ranked 21st allowing 3.2 yards per carry in run support which is better than Houston's last two opponents. They are also ranked 26th in opposing QB rating, and 19th in sack % also much better than Houston's last two opponents. Houston's offense struggled against Temple and I think they will have similar issues again today especially in the red zone where opponents have only gone 9 times this season.
Bruce Marshall
Hawaii vs. UNLV
Pick: UNLV
They're talking bowl (!) at UNLV for the first time since the days of the Clinton Administration after Rebs' 3-game win streak. And Hawaii doesn't look much better than the collection of stiffs recently vanquished by Bobby Hauck's bunch, especially with Norm Chow still seeking consistency at QB (sr. Schroeder three picks vs. San Jose). Believe it or not, revenge-minded Rebs 14-6-1 vs. line at Sam Boyd Stadium during the Hauck era!
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana vs. Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hoosiers come to East Lansing off a 44-24 victory at home over Penn State, the school’s first-ever win against the Nittany Lions, after 16 unsuccessful attempts. This game also marks Indiana’s first road game of 2013, after opening with five home games. The Hoosiers are greatly improved offensively this year, as QB Sudfeld is completing 64.2% for almost 1,500 yards (has topped 300 yards in three games), tossing 13 TDs against six INTs. However, the defense leaves MUCH to be desired (31.0 PPG allowed on 452.6 YPG) and it’s why Indiana is just 3-2, allowing 41 points (to Navy) and 45 points (to Missouri) in two home losses.
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While Indiana ventures away from Bloomington for the first time in 2013, the Spartans return home to East Lansing for the first time in 28 days. Michigan State’s last home game was back on Sep 14 vs Youngstown St. MSU’s offense is not explosive (I’m being kind) but the improvement of sophomore QB Cook has been steady, if not spectacular. He didn’t have a TD pass in either of MSU’s first two games (no INTs, either!) but over the team's last three, he’s had seven TD tosses against just one INT. He also gets the support of a solid rushing attack, averaging 176.6 YPG on 4.4 YPC.
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However, the key to this year’s Spartans is the team's defense, which ranks 1st in yards allowed at just 203.8 YPG (that’s about 250 less than Indiana's per game average!) and ranks 7th in points allowed at 13.4 per. Indiana upset Michigan St here in East Lansing back in 2001 but since that time, Michigan State has won its home games in this series 31-3, 46-15, 52-27 and 56-3. I’m laying the point with the Spartans.
InsiderAngles SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon St vs Washington StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick : OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A potential Pac-12 upset may be worth staying up for Saturday night when the Oregon State Beavers (4-1, 2-3 ATS) pay a visit to the Washington State Cougars (4-2, 5-1 ATS) at Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA at 10:30 ET on ESPNU. The Cougars are small favorites at home here but the Beavers have a very real chance for this victory as they have won four straight games since being caught by surprise in a 49-46 loss to Eastern Washington out of the FCS on opening week to knock Oregon State out of the Top 25.
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The play by the Beavers since then however suggests that they simply got caught looking ahead and took EWU lightly, as they have since outscored their four FBS opponents by an average score of 40.5-27.3, and their quarterback Sean Mannion is quietly starting to throw his name into the Heisman Trophy conversation. Mannion has already passed for over 2000 yards this season while completing 67.2 percent of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he leads the country with his 21 touchdown passes while throwing just two interceptions! Granted Washington State a respectable 47th in the country in passing defense, but the best quarterback the Cougars have faced to this point was probably Kevin Hogan of Stanford, and he passed for 286 yards against them and probably could have passed for more if the Cardinal did not pull in the reins in a 55-17 blowout. Mannion is a much more highly regarded NFL prospect than Hogan is, so Oregon State should be able to put points up on the board even on the road.
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Besides, Washington State has failed two of its three biggest tests so far with its two losses to Stanford and the Auburn Tigers, and even its 10-7 upset win over USC loses its luster considering how much disarray the Trojans were in at the time, leading to the firing of Lane Kiffin. The other three Cougar wins have not come vs. much in Southern Utah out of the FCS, one of the worst FBS teams in the country in Idaho and one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in California 44-22 last week. Thus it is hard to trust Wazzou as a favorite until it actually has a quality win, especially since the Cougars have been very erratic offensively and downright bad in that department vs. the three best teams they faced including the win over USC, so they should have a tough time matching a prolific Oregon State offense.
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Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in their last five head-to-head meetings in Washington State and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 road games overall. Washington State is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a straight up win by at least 20 points.
Tom StrykerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. Arizona StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Arizona State -26FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week's complimentary selection on Missouri got the job done. A special thanks to those of you that were on board with the Tigers. Don't forget, the most cost-effective way to make money out here is to consider purchasing a subscription package. Over the weekend, I'll post well over 20 plays. You'll save a ton and make a bundle. Try a subscription package today. You'll be glad you did.
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Off last week's primetime loss to Notre Dame, Arizona State will bounce back in a big way on Saturday night. Colorado comes to town off back-to-back thrashings by Oregon State and Oregon and the Buffaloes are in the wrong place at the wrong time once again.
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As home favorites priced at -14 or more, ASU has been at its money-making best posting a respectable 35-17-1 ATS record. In this role coming off a straight up loss, the Sun Devils have won 19 straight and have posted a juicy 15-3-1 ATS investment mark. Please note: Those 19 victories came by an average of 25.8 points per game. Equally impressive, as a conference host, Arizona State holds a solid 44-28-3 ATS in its last 75 lined games.
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Statistically speaking, this is an ugly matchup for visiting Colorado. The Buffs bring to Tempe one of the nation's worst pass defenses. CU has allowed opponents to throw for an average of 326.8 yards per game. With Taylor Kelly at quarterback, Arizona State has torched opposing secondaries for an average of 359.4 yards per game. Rest assured, Kelly and the Sun Devils will throw with success all night long in this conference battle.
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In their last 37 games, Colorado has been at its worst notching a feeble 8-29 SU and 10-24-1 ATS record including a pitiful 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS in this set as a guest. Even worse, dating back to their days as members of the Big 12, the Buffaloes have posted a miserable 5-28 SU and 8-25 ATS in their last 33 as a conference guest.
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If the Sun Devils want to have a shot at the Pac-12 Championship, then they need to take care of business against the Buffs. ASU failed in its statement game against Notre Dame and they'll be anxious to get back on the winning track.