Dave Price
Kansas State +17½
Baylor is riding high following four consecutive dominant performances against overmatched opponents, but now it goes out on the road for the first time and will be facing a hungry foe. Kansas State lost by only four points as a 13-point dog at Oklahoma State last week despite five turnovers and 12 penalties. Both numbers are extremely uncharacteristic for Bill Snyder teams, and I expect a much more disciplined effort here. I also expect a very passionate performance from the Wildcats, who were 10-0 and holding the No. 1 spot in the BCS standings before losing 52-24 at Baylor last season. That loss will fuel K-State here. The home team has dominated the series, winning each of the last six meetings by an average of 19.0 points. The Wildcats are 4-0 at home in the series with a 27-point average winning margin. The Wildcats are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games, 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. Also, you want to fade road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that outgain opponents by 125.0 yards or more per game, provided they have outgained their last two opponents by 175 yards or more. Doing so has produced a 33-9 ATS result the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 15.7 points on average but have won by just 9.9 points on average. Baylor is an explosive team, but I like a Kansas State squad that is hungry for revenge to keep this one within the number.
Jeff Alexander
Georgia -7
Missouri is yet to be tested but that changes Saturday when it visits the Dawg Pound. The Tigers have been favored in every game and have won with relative ease, but they take a big step up in competition here. Georgia has played the likes of Clemson, South Carolina and LSU - winning two of the three - and it will be ready to meet this challenge following a disappointing performance at Tennessee where it blew a 17-3 halftime lead and was fortunate to hang on in OT. Georgia smoked Mizzou 41-20 on the road last season, and I expect to see another double-digit victory from the Dawgs. Georgia has been taking excellent care of the football, which is significant because it is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after 2 consecutive games where it committed 1 or less turnovers. It has won by an average of 19.1 points in this spot. Bet the Bulldogs.
Jack Jones
Utah Utes +8
The Utah Utes are certainly a much better team than they were last year when they went 5-7 to miss their first bowl game in over a decade. They have opened 3-2 with impressive wins over both Utah State and BYU, which are two of the better non-BCS teams in the country. Their only two losses this season came against Oregon State (48-51) and UCLA (27-34) in games that they essentially gave away by committing a combined nine turnovers.
Stanford is very fortunate to be undefeated right now. It was thoroughly outplayed last week in a 31-28 home win over Washington. In fact, it was outgained 279-489 in the win, or by 210 total yards. It benefited from a kickoff return for a touchdown on the opening play of the game, which proved to be the difference. Washington also had a completion overturned on the final drive that was suspect to say the least, putting an end to its bid to either tie or win the game late.
The Cardinal haven’t been all that impressive this season to say the least. They are only outgaining opponents 409.4 to 372.6 on the season, or by roughly 37 yards per game. Utah, meanwhile, is outgaining its opponents 481.2 to 406.0, or by an average of roughly 75 yards per game. That’s impressive when you consider how tough the schedule has been for Utah thus far. It has shown a great ability to stop the run, limiting opponents to just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. That will be huge against Stanford, which relies heavily on its running game.
Utah has had a couple extra days to prepare for Stanford having last played on Thursday, October 3. This is certainly a letdown spot for the Cardinal considering they have undefeated UCLA on deck. The extra rest, coupled with this letdown spot for the Cardinal, makes this a great spot bet for the Utes. I also like the fact that Utah has an underrated home-field advantage, going 50-14 in its last 64 home games dating back to 2003.
Plays against a road team (STANFORD) – in a game involving two average defensive teams (21-28 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Utah is an impressive 51-29 against the spread in its last 80 games as an underdog, including 30-15 against the number in its last 45 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Utes are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Utah Saturday.
Bill Biles
Oklahoma -13
Texas is missing their starting QB again this week. The Cotton Bowl seems to bring out the best in Oklahoma and the worst in Texas. Look for Oklahoma to win this one fairly easily.
Joseph D'Amico
California vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -24½
Can you say REVENGE?! Cal took down UCLA last year, 43-17. But these are two totally different teams now. UCLA is 4-0 both SU and ATS, beating such notables as Nebraska and Utah. Cal is 1-4 SU and 0-5 against the number this season. As matter of fact, the Golden Bears failed to cover their L10 straight contests, going back to last season. Their defense has been decimated by injuries, ranking the unit 123rd in Total Yards Allowed (526 YPG) and 124th in Points Allowed (45). They are equally bad against both the run and the pass. In comes a Bruins offense that is posting 561.8 YPG (4th nationally) and 48 PPG (5th). Dual-threat QB, Brett Hundley has 1059 YP and 9 TDs in the air and another 242 YR and 3 more scores on the ground. RB, Jordan James is listed as questionable but Perkins, Jones, and Manfro can fill in just in case, without missing a beat. On the flipside, Cal QB, Jared Goff can throw the ball but does have 5 INTs already and must face a UCLA "D" that has 8 PICKS just in the L2 games. The Golden Bears are averaging a mere 2.9 YPC on the ground. UCLA knows this and will key on the passing game. The Bruins have the pass-rushers to get to Goff and force mistakes. The Home Team is 5-1 ATS the L6 meetings in the series. The Golden Bears are 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games played at the Bruins, 0-7 ATS their L7 Conference games, and 0-7 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a winning record. The Bruins are 5-1 ATS their L6 games played laying DDs, 5-2 ATS their L7 Conference games, and 9-4 ATS their L13 games played at home. Take UCLA.
Game Plan
Indiana +10
The Hoosiers are vastly underrated in the Big Ten this year and have one of the most prolific offenses in the Big Ten. They take on the BEST defense in the country in Michigan State. This is will be an interesting match-up in strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness. MSU really struggles to score and all of their games are relatively close. Indiana is one of our surprise teams this season so we will lean with the undervalued Hoosiers plus the points in this one. Take Indiana.
Steve Janus
Houston Cougars -9
The Cougars are just one win away from matching their win total from last season. I think it’s pretty safe to say that Houston is one of the most improved teams in the country. Second year head coach Tony Levine really deserves a lot of credit for getting this program back on track.
In years past I think Memphis would be a team you would have to worry about the Cougars overlooking, but after their near upset win over UCF last week I would expect the Tigers to have Houston’s full attention. There’s a couple things to keep in mind when handicapping this game. First, it could be difficult for Memphis to rebound off such a devastating loss at home to UCF, where they basically gift wrapped the win for the Knights. Second, the Cougars have had a full two weeks to prepare for this much-improved Tigers defense. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Maybe the biggest factor favoring the Cougars is that the strength of the Memphis defense is against the run. The Tigers allowed Duke’s Brandon Connette to come in for injured starter Anthony Boone and complete 14 of 21 attempts for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Houston quarterback John O’Korn has completed 63.5% of his attempts for 933 yards with 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception. This will not only be the Tigers toughest challenge defensively, but it’s also their first true road test of the season and a lot of times defenses fail to play up to their full potential on the road. Houston also runs a fast-paced offense that could not only give Memphis trouble but really ware down the Tigers and allow the Cougars to open this thing up in the second half.
I know the Cougars haven’t played the toughest of schedules, but they too have made some noticeable improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Houston ranks 28th in scoring defense (20.0 ppg). While I’m not exactly sold on the Cougars being able to maintain that kind of success, there’s plenty of reason to believe they can shutdown a Memphis offense that has really struggled to do anything offensively. Also keep in mind Houston has forced 14 turnovers in four games while the Tigers have turned it over 9 times in four games.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday's college football card is on Ole Miss plus the points against Texas A&M and Johnny Football. I don't care how bad consecutive road losses to No. 1 Alabama and Auburn have the Rebels reeling a bit, the ninth-ranked Aggies are about to have their hands full. I know Texas A&M has the third-best offense in the nation, averaging 561.8 yards per game, and also brings in the fourh-best scoring offense that averages 49.2 points per game.
But just as easy as it is to back the Aggies' high-powered offense, you cannot ignore the fact the Texas A&M's defense is one of the worst in the nation. With Ole Miss returning home, the Rebels will be able to match wits offensively, keep things close and stay within striking distance.
Remember, the Rebels played four of their first five games with a suitcase in hand, and now get to play their next six at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, beginning with A&M. And the Rebels are no slouch on offense, as they rank near middle of the Southeastern Conference, averaging 427.8 yards per game.
I'm taking a shot here with the underdog, and it might not hurt to buy the half point and take 7' with Ole Miss.
1♦ MISSISSIPPI
Brad Wilton
My free play winner for Saturday will be Maryland to shake off that rather lopsided 63-0 beatdown that was administered to them by Florida State last weekend, as Randy Edsall's Terps bounce-back with the home win and cover over the backsliding Cavaliers of Virginia.
UVa was just manhandled at home by Ball State last weekend, as the Cavs dropped to 2-3 both straight up and against the spread.
Virginia is now on a 4-14 spread slide their last 18 on board, and while Maryland QB C.J. Brown was knocked out of last week's game with a concussion, I trust backup Rowe to handle matters at home in College Park where they have covered both previous affairs as double-digit favorites.
The Terrapins won outright as the underdog last year at Virginia, and this year's Maryland team is hands-down better than last year's edition.
Maryland by 10 on Saturday afternoon.
4♦ MARYLAND
Brady Kannon
Colorado St. -3
The San Jose State Spartans had high expectations this season after putting together a nice 2012 campaign but they have sputtered this year in a big way, only winning straight up against lowly Sacramento State and Hawaii. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been competitive, covering against number one Alabama in a not so embarrassing 31-6 loss and scoring nearly 37 points on average in their other 4-games so far. While we are comfortable with the way The Rams are playing, this is more of a play against the very disappointing Spartans. CSU's defense is a bit suspect but SJSU's quarterback David Fales ought to give them opportunities as he is completing just 56% of his passes and has thrown 7-interceptions in 5-games. Until we see a rebound by once proud San Jose State, we'll fade them here and ride with The Rams at home.
Kyle Hunter
Oregon St vs. Washington St
Play: Over 62
Oregon State and Washington State both like to throw the ball early and often. On the other side, both of these defenses aren't very good at all in the secondary. There should be a lot of fireworks in this game. Mike Leach's air raid system is catching on at Washington State, but their defense is still a liability. Oregon State has a good run D, but I don't expect Washington State to even attempt to get the run game going here. The oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to Oregon State's improved offense. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two at Washington State. Take the over.
Freddy Wills
Memphis vs. Houston
Play: Memphis +9½
Houston has been extremely lucky to start the season and everyone is automatically assuming this is the same Houston team that hung up 50+ points on a regular basis, but I'm still not convinced considering Houston largely benefited last game from turnovers against Texas San Antonio, and got lucky in Rice who lost their start offensive player early in that game. In both games they were -9 minutes in time of possession.
Memphis meanwhile just comes off a game in which they hung with Central Florida leading 17-10 in the 4th quarter when they allowed 2 TD's in 9 seconds to go on and lose 24-17. Memphis defense held UCF to just 297 yards, but the 4 turnovers cost them. Memphis should be able to runt he ball and pass against Houston whose defense is not up to par. Memphis has a very balanced offense, but it's their defense that's catching a lot of respect.
Memphis is ranked 21st allowing 3.2 yards per carry in run support which is better than Houston's last two opponents. They are also ranked 26th in opposing QB rating, and 19th in sack % also much better than Houston's last two opponents. Houston's offense struggled against Temple and I think they will have similar issues again today especially in the red zone where opponents have only gone 9 times this season.
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Central Michigan at OhioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Ohio -18FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio comes into this game having won 4 in a row and a 43-3 beat down of Akron at Akron last week. The offense rolled up almost 400 yards and held Akron to 150. The offense is led by senior QB Tettleton who has been solid all year throwing for over 1000 yds, 8 TD and only 3 INT. Their defense has also been solid giving up just over 20 ppg and that includes the opening loss they suffered at Louisville where the Cardinals put up 49 on them. Central Michigan on the other hand needs help on both sides of the ball, they can’t score 17.7ppg ranked 113th and can’t stop anybody 34 ppg 103rd. They do come off a win vs lowly Miami, Oh but have lost 3 of their last 4 by an avg of 20 ppg and QB Rush has been erratic 3 TD 8 INT the last 4 games. We would expect that trend to continue as this is their 3rd road game in a row, and the Bobcats come in rested off a bye and only Eastern Michigan on deck.
Jim Feist
Texas A&M takes on Ole Miss
Play: Over
Texas A&M is 4-1 over the total with a great offense behind QB Johnny Manziel (14 TDs, 4 INTs, 1,489 yds, 71.4%) with an attack that averages 49.2 points, 365 yards passing (5th in the nation), 221 yds rushing per game (28th) for coach Kevin Sumlin. But the defense is a weak spot allowing 30.8 ppg (86th). The over is 42-19-2 in Aggies last 63 games following an ATS loss. Ole Miss (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) also has a dynamite, uptempo attack behind junior QB Bo Wallace. The last game they lost 30-22 at Auburn with an edge in yards 464-375, but they allowed 282 yds rushing (5.9 ypc). Wait until they see this Aggie attack! This shapes up as a shootout; Play Texas A&M/Ole Miss over the total.
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Tulane + over East CarolinaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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East Carolina looks like the top team in the East division of Conference USA but that assumption is based on one big win over North Carolina, a game that came in a bad spot for a Tar Heels team that has simply struggled all around this season. The Pirates did play close with Virginia Tech but posting 204 yards in a game should not be worth much credit and the other wins came in ATS losses as a favorite with wins over Old Dominion, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee State, hardly an impressive trio. This will be the third straight week in a row on the road for the Pirates and coming off back-to-back narrow wins this could be a letdown spot. Last season East Carolina won by five in this matchup and Tulane looks greatly improved this season. The Wave already has four wins this season after going 2-10 last season and the wins came against credible competition beating Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and North Texas. The offense has a formidable passing attack led by Nick Montana and Tulane has soundly out-rushed the last two foes. Tulane has covered in five of the last seven in this series and this spread does not seem to account for much change from last season despite great improvement for Tulane as East Carolina was favored by 10 last season at Tulane as these teams are playing consecutive seasons in New Orleans with the shake-up in Conference USA. Tulane should continue to be a formidable home underdog after winning in that role last week.