Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 13

MLB

Detroit at NY Yankees
The Yankees look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 6-0 win over Oakland and is 3-7 in Doug Fister's last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. New York is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130)

Game 901-902: Detroit at NY Yankees (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.559; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.495
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at Edmonton
The Eskimos look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games in Week 16. Edmonton is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton.

Game 293-294: Calgary at Winnipeg (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.251; Winnipeg 110.941
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Under

Game 295-296: Saskatchewan at Edmonton (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 113.587; Edmonton 115.900
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 48
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton; Under

Sean MurphyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke vs. Virginia Tech
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Duke is expected to have QB Sean Renfree back after he missed last week's 42-17 blowout win over Virginia with an elbow injury. While the Blue Devils have been humming along offensively, they'll take a big step up in class on the road against Virginia Tech this week, and I fully expect their offense to take a step back as a result.
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Note that Duke has scored at least 34 points in five of its first six games, however, those performances have come against FIU, NC Central, Memphis, Wake Forest, and aforementioned Virginia. This will be their toughest test since facing Stanford on the road in Week 2, a game in which they scored only 13 points.
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Look for the Blue Devils to focus on pounding the football in an effort to keep their offense on the field for prolonged drives on Saturday. It's really the only chance they have to stay competitive given all of the injuries they've suffered on the defensive side of the football. Their defense has actually held up well all things considered, but it can't afford to be on the field for the majority of this game if Duke wants to have a shot at the upset.
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Virginia Tech got involved in a rare shootout against North Carolina last week. The tone for that game was set when UNC returned the kickoff for a touchdown following the Hokies opening drive touchdown. It was a truly wide-open, old-fashioned shootout, and not surprisingly, the Hokies didn't have the guns to keep pace for four quarters, ultimately falling by a 48-34 score.
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I expect to see the Hokies do a much better job of controlling proceedings this week. Their defense has been tough here in Blacksburg, holding the opposition to just 24 points in three games combined. Granted they haven't faced the toughest competition, although they did limit a pretty good Georgia Tech offense to only 17 points back in Week 1.
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We've seen the Hokies dominate this particular matchup in recent years, holding the Blue Devils to a combined 78 points in their last eight meetings. The last time we saw Virginia Tech come up with a poor defensive showing (back in Week 3 at Pitt), it responded with a shutout of Bowling Green at home the very next week (we cashed with the under in that game).
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The 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series, with the two teams most recently putting up only 24 points combined in last year's matchup. I'm not calling for that type of defemsove slugfest here, as Duke simply doesn't have the horses, but with this total sitting in the mid-50s, we won't need it.

Art AronsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent State vs. Army
Pick: ArmyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I won with Army against Boston College last Saturday. The Knights were substantial underdogs but they won outright. Having earned that elusive first win, they've now got the monkey off their backs. They're playing a winnable game now and they enter it with confidence. The Golden Flashes have only four road wins in their last 15 tries. I say the Knights ride the momentum and make it two in a row. With the spread a virtual non-factor, take a good luck at the home team in this matchup.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kent St vs. Army
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Army did not play on CFB's opening weekend and then on Sep 8, made a rare trip to California to play San Diego St. The Cadets should have stayed home, as they were routed 42-7. The Black Knights then came oh-so-close, in losing consecutive games to Northern Illinois and Wake Forest despite scoring 77 points but a 23-3 loss on Sep 29 to FCS foe Stony Brook in the normally friendly confines of Michie Stadium had them reeling. Army entered last weekend as one of eight winless FBS teams but the Cadets earned their first win of 2012 by beating Boston College 34-31 at West Point. Raymond Maples was stopped on a fourth-and-goal from inches with just over two minutes left with Boston College clinging to a four-point lead. However, the much-maligned Army defense forced a three-and-out, giving them one last chance with 69 seconds left. Three plays later, on a 3rd & 1 from BC’s 29-yard-line, QB Steelman “took it to the house” with a 29-yard TD run with 18 seconds left. This marks Army’s third straight home game, as the Cadets host yet another MAC team, Kent State. The Golden Flashes come in 4-1 (lone loss was 47-14 at Kentucky) and have scored 45 and 43 points in each of their last two games. Seeing another MAC team is nothing new for Army, as I’ve named them an ‘honorary’ member of the MAC. Army played SEVEN games in 2010 and 2011 against MAC schools and expected to play four more MAC schools in 2012. That number was cut to three, when Temple (Army hosts them on Nov 17) moved back to the Big East after last year’s ‘shuffling.’ Now just what did I pick up on when Army played a MAC school? The games went over. Army played three MAC schools in 2010 with the final game scores landing 52, 77 and 63 points with respective closing totals of 41 1/2, 40 1/2 and 45. The oddsmakers noticed as well and last year in four games vs MAC teams the four closing totals were 53 1/2, 50 1/2, 48 1/2 and 48. However, that didn’t help much, as the final scores totaled 75, 69, 63 and 56. That’s an average game score of 66.4 per these last two seasons with all SEVEN of the games going over. Army’s first of three games vs a MAC school came back on Sep 15 at West Point against Northern Illinois. That game closed 49 1/2 but the final was 41-40, Northern Illinois. Clearly, I’m playing the over again here but the oddsmakers are making it more difficult. No more over/unders in the 40s or low-50s now, as this game opened 57 and is “movin’ on up” just like the Jeffersons. Still, I’ll play over but for a lesser amount.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Christian vs. Baylor
Pick: Texas Christian
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TCU is coming off a tough loss at home to the Iowa State Cyclones. TCU had won 12 straight games prior to last week, the longest winning streak in college football.
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The scoreboard will tell you that the Horned Frogs lost the game by a score of 37-23. There is more to the story though, as I believe that the Horned Frogs beat themselves, taking too many penalties and making far too many mistakes.
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It's hard to blame them though, as starting quarterback Casey Pachall was suspended indefinitely after getting arrested for DWI. Rookie Trevone Boykin came in to replace him, and he tossed an INT with his first pass of the game, and three interceptions overall on the day.
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Their starting running back also missed the game, and his replacement fumbled twice.
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There is a chance that both players will be back in action this week, but I am not going to count on it. Coach Patterson will have a full week of practice, to get his players ready for their upcoming game with Baylor. Trevone Boykin didn't have a great game in his debut, but he showed signs of greatness at times. I think he has what it takes to lead them to victory, and having time to practice with the starters all week should certainly help.
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The big advantage TCU has against Baylor is on defense, the Bears come into this game ranked 112th in points allowed, while the Horned Frogs rank 10th. I haven't been impressed with Baylor despite their 3-1 record, I think they are a little overrated.

Brad DiamondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama vs. Missouri
Play: AlabamaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is week #7 of College Football and here we find the #1 Crimson Tide traveling to Columbia to face the Tigers off a bye week. Missouri is 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming off a SU loss to Vanderbilt sitting in 4th place in the SEC East. The Tigers are 0-3 in the SEC East. Alabama is 5-0 SU & 2-3 ATS after smashing Ole Miss 33-14 two weeks back. In preseason, most experts had listed Alabama as a #5 to #1 finisher for the BCS Championship. In September, most odds makers had Alabama around 7/2 to win the title. Missouri, despite coming off an 8-5 season and bringing back 12 starters were listed at 500/1 to grab the cash. In five games this season ‘Bama’ defense is holding opponents to 7 points per game. They are averaging 40 points per contest. We do know the Tide is coming off and SEC game, while facing three SEC teams right after Mizzou. They include Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU.
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Missouri is averaging 25.3 points per game, while allowing 22.8 points per game. The Tigers injury report has listed QB Franklin as out, and RB Josey out for Saturday. Their 19-15 heart breaking loss to Vanderbilt at home was devastating to the program and their fan base. The Tigers managed just 83 yards on 49 carries. Critical too, was the injury to QB Franklin and the turnovers. Missouri has a very challenging schedule, even after Saturday. They are a horrid 3-38 SU against Top-10 units, if you are counting Georgia and South Carolina this season. The Tigers are 1-3 ATS in game #7 of the season.
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With Alabama losing votes for the national title after a so-so win against Mississippi, we see a huge performance by the Tide defensively completely minimizing the Tigers attack. Missouri must create turnovers on defense or they could be embarrassed. The TIDE SHOW PERFECT Saturday at 7-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. FINAL FORECAST: Alabama 40 Missouri 3

Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois vs. MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This price point is a distinct overreaction of 10 points from opening week. That would be a result of the recent Illini slide which has seen them go 0-4 SU ATS of late vs. lined opponents with losses of 17 (Wisconsin), 28 (Penn State), 28 (LA Tech) and 31 (AZ State). With Michigan State and Nebraska on deck, and an offense geared around one player, I’m not convinced that the Wolves go out of their way to author this blow out.
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Boston College vs. Florida State
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FSU In years gone by, BC could hope to remain competitive at this price by playing staunch defense and eating some clock with a decent ground game. All that has changed with a decision by HC Spaziani to go uptempo with a pass oriented offense behind QB Rettig. Quite simply that doesn’t work in this match up. The Seminole front 7 will give Rettig little time to make his throws. A Swiss cheese defense that allowed Army to run for 517 yards last week will feel the wrath of the Florida State offense that failed to score in the second half last week. That resulted in a 17-16 loss to NC State. This will surely have Florida State prepared to vent from th opening gun. 1st half players can also make this wager with confidence.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa at Michigan St
Prediction: IowaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawkeyes leave Iowa City for their first true road game of the season as they look to make amends for their only home loss in 2011, a 37-21 setback to the Spartans in mid-November. They actually may not find the going all that tough. Iowa, surprisingly, is 7-5-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in East Lansing since 1980, including a 15-13 victory in 2009 as 1-point dogs. They?re now taking double digits this afternoon and HC Kirk Ferentz?s 22-10-1 ATS mark with conference revenge when not laying doubles, including 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine, says the 10 points should be more than sufficient. Yes, State has held every foe to season-low ? or 2nd low ? yardage this year but four straight spread losses suggests something is amiss in Spartyville. MSU did rally from a 13-point halftime deficit last week in Indiana to pull out a 31-27 win after holding the Hoosiers to 37 yards and two first downs in the second half and that should give them some much-needed momentum. But Iowa just doesn?t get blown out as evidenced by this stat: 16 of the Hawkeyes? last 18 regular-season losses have been by 10 or less points. And with no super team in the conference this year (this is the first time since the USA TODAY Coaches Poll debuted in 1991 that there?s no Big Ten teams in the poll as Ohio State is declared ineligible), taking doubles in these Big Ten bashes seems to be the way to go. A must take. We recommend a 1-unit play on Iowa.

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USC at WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: USCFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC is in "buy" mode for me after the way they manhandled Utah in Salt Lake. Yes, the Utes got the cover in a 38-28 USC win. But the final score did not represent the mismatch on the field. After stumbling out of the gate, the Trojans finished the game on a 38-14 scoring run. They gained 401 yards on nearly 10 yards per play over the final three quarters of action. We have seen the Husky defense struggle badly in step-up situations, getting ripped 41-3 by LSU and 52-21 last week against Oregon (we had the Ducks). Washington QB Keith Price is going to have to make plays in this one and he simply doesn't step up well against top shelf opponents. Against LSU, Oregon, and Stanford, Price completed just 53% of his passes. He averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt and had 1 TD, 4 INTs, and was sacked 8 times. I believe this is the time to "buy" USC and I'm laying the points with the Trojans on Saturday.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan vs. Ball State
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There aren’t many stronger ‘Over’ teams in the country than Ball State. Pete Lembo’s offense can trade points with anybody, hanging 37, 27, 41, 31 and 43 points in their first five ballgames, including games against Big 10, ACC and Big East foes. They closed out last year by scoring 31, 35, 33, 38 and 28 in MAC play down the stretch. Don’t be fooled for a moment by last week’s Under result – the Cardinals gained 563 yards against Northern Illinois, but they missed field goals and committed three turnovers in Huskies territory. QB Keith Wenning is coming off another career day: 42-71 for 434 yards, and there’s no reason to think he won’t have similar success this week against a mediocre Western Michigan stop unit.
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But Ball State’s defense is every bit as bad as their offense is good. They ranked dead last in yards allowed in the MAC last year and rank near the bottom of the league again in 2012. This D has allowed the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter in each of their last four games. Head coach Lembo doesn’t expect it to get much better anytime soon, with players recruited for four different coordinators and three different head coaches mismatched together on this stop unit.
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Lembo: “If you have a program with continuity and consistency and you’re able to recruit and retain players, you have a chance to field a better defense.” The lack of continuity from system to system is a “huge factor” for a Cardinals defense that has allowed 35, 45, 27, 39, 52 and 26 in their first six games this year, after closing out 2011 by allowing 45, 45, 41, 31 and 45 in their last five games last year. That’s why Ball State is 9-1-1 to the Over in their last eleven ballgames; a streak worth riding again here. Take the Over.

Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Tech +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We could have gotten a better line here if we had acted quicker but I do like what we do have as My Number shows a Texas Tech outright by 1.2 Points. That makes this play 2% for me. Terribly overinflated line here and simply because West Va is off their win verses Texas. How they become favs in this contest so quickly is beyond me. They would have NOT been has they not eeked out a win last week. The Red Raiders lost value with their loss to OK but the fact is that loss was Turnover Driven by a very good OK Defense. West Virginia defense? They don't have one.

Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas vs. OklahomaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: TexasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Red River Rivalry brings 4-1 Texas and 3-1 Oklahoma together again. Oklahoma thrashed Texas LY, 55-17. A game in which Longhorns QB, David Ash was still a newbie. The play-caller has certainly matured since then. This season, Ash has a 77.5% CR, 1276 YP, 11 TDs, and 1 INT. The team has three outstanding ball-carriers in Bergeron, Gray, and Brown (778 YR and 12 TDs combined). With the 'Horns coming off their first loss of the season LW, they will come back strong here. The Sooner's "D" can be beaten. Their offense puts up impressive numbers but QB, Landry Jones' play can be erratic at times. He must face a Texas "D" that allows just 16.0 PPG TY. The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played vs. teams with a winning record while the Sooners are 1-4 ATS their L5 Conference games. Take Texas.

Bobby ConnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida vs. VanderbiltFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: FloridaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The only thing that has me worried about this game is Florida is coming off a big win against LSU and has South Carolina on deck, but if the Gators stay focused they should win this game in a rout. They are a solid running team facing a mediocre at best rush defense. Vanderbilt has scored more than 20 points once this year and it was against Presbyterian. LSU is the only team that has checked Florida under 20 points and Vandy's defense isn't in the same solar system as LSU's.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Volunteers +3
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Mississippi State is 5-0 but it hasn't played anybody yet. Tennessee is 3-2 but its losses came to Florida and Georgia - teams currently ranked in the top 15. The Vols also have an impressive 35-21 win over an NC State team that upset Florida State.
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Tennessee has had a bye week to prepare for this game, and it's hungry for a signature win. Because it has been battle tested early, I believe it can go into Starkville and come out with a "W".
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The Vols have won 6 in a row against the Bulldogs with each of those coming by at least 10 points.
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Mississippi State has been good defensively against weak competition. They rank 11th in the country in scoring defense with 13.4 points allowed per game. However, it is worth noting that Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games versus good defensive teams that give up 14 points or less per game. The Vols have only lost by an average of .4 points in this situation.
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Much of Mississippi State's early success can be traced back to the turnovers it has been able to force. The Vols know a thing or two about forcing turnovers as well. The fact they've come up with 3 takeaways in each of their last two games is significant. Consider that plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers are 24-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.
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Tennessee has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. It averages over 506 yards per game and might be averaging over 600 yards per game had it played Mississippi State's schedule. I'll take the points as I believe the Tennessee offense will be a little too much for the Bulldogs.