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Texas +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Going to take the better team here, and in my opinion that is Texas, even off a loss to West Virginia. Not many teams in the country can hold Geno Smith and the Mountaineer attack to under 35 points with the exception maybe of Alabama, and Texas lost that game by 3. On the other hand Texas's QB Ash playing great ball for them, and their 1-2 punch at RB and balance on offense is better than OU's. Oklahoma had a nice win at Texas Tech last week, but Tech not near the team Texas is, and the Texas defense, and the ability to rush the passer is a big key in this game.
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Last time OU played someone close to Texas in talent, who could run the ball and rush the passer in press coverage was K State, and K State beat them up in Norman. Texas playing with 3 time revenge in this heated rivalry game and have not forgotten the butt whipping OU gave them last year. OU's offense has WIlliams running the ball better but QB Jones is having a less than stellar year and only has 1 big play weapon in WR Stills. I like the Longhorns here in Dallas at the Cotton Bowl to make a statement against an over rated OU team who has not been in total sync all season.
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Ball State -2.5
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The Ball State Cardinals should be a much bigger favorite Saturday over the Western Michigan Broncos. The Broncos remain without one of the best quarterbacks in school history in Alex Carder, who is out indefinitely with a hand injury.
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Western Michigan is 0-2 on the road this season, and it isn't about to pick up its first win away from home Saturday. The Broncos are only averaging 15.0 points/game in road losses to Illinois and Minnesota this season.
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Like WMU, Ball State sits at 3-3 on the year. Its only losses have come on the road at Clemson and Kent State, while also falling at home to Northern Illinois last week. It has impressive wins over Indiana and South Florida, so this team is certainly battle-tested.
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Off two straight losses, there's no question the Cardinals are going to be extra motivated when they return home to face the Broncos this weekend. They want revenge from a 35-45 loss at Western Michigan last season, and they have 13 starters back from that team.
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Ball State returned eight starters on offense from last year's team, and this unit is really hitting on all cylinders. It is scoring 33.7 points/game while ranking 20th in the country in total offense (491.5 yards/game).
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The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Ball State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Broncos are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Western Michigan. Bet Ball State Saturday.
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Notre Dame -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a game the Fighting Irish want badly as they have lost the last 3 in the series. Stanford has a nice win over USC but that victory came at home. It laid an egg at Washington in its only road game thus far. Expect its road struggles to continue in South Bend, where it has dropped 7 of its last 8. Those 7 losses have come by an average of 14.7 points and all but 1 came by 7 points or more. Notre Dame is off to a 5-0 start and 4 of its wins have come by at least 7 points. Its defense has been the difference as it has held explosive offensive teams like Michigan and Miami to 6 and 3 points, respectively. Since Kelly took over, the Irish are an unbeaten 8-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. These have won by an average of 20.5 points in this spot. Lay the number.
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Utah vs. UCLAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah has been in every game but one, losing to Utah State in OT, beating No. 25 BYU and coming off a 38-28 loss to USC, giving the mighty Trojans a game all the way. The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. This UCLA team has lost 2 of 3 games, beating only Colorado and getting trashed by Cal last week, 43-17. The Bruins are 17-35-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, 7-16 ATS in their last 23 conference games. UCLA's defense got smoked last week and the Bruins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Play Utah!
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Iowa Hawkeyes +8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a lot of points for Michigan State to be laying considering how much it has struggled on offense. The Spartans are 100th in the country in scoring with 21.8 ppg and 80th in total offense with 389.0 ypg. The Spartans have been at their best when they've been able to run the football as they are 4-0 this season when rushing for more than 100 yards and 0-2 when they don't. They've tallied at least 120 yards on the ground in each of those 4 games but will have trouble getting there Saturday. An Iowa defense that ranks 23rd in the nation against the run with 111.0 ypg allowed won't give up anything easy on the ground. Iowa is 19-6 ATS under coach Ferentz when it checks into a game following 3 straight games of holding its opponents to 125 rushing yards or less. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, and the Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.
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Ole Miss -6FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's amazing how fast Auburn has fallen out of the national spotlight and into the basement of the SEC. After losing at home to Arkansas by a final score of 7-24, the Tigers are now 1-4 with their only win coming at home against ULM 31-28 in overtime.
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Auburn simply doesn't have the talent or the coaching to compete in the SEC right now. The play at quarterback has been about as bad I have seen in some time. Keihl Frazer and Clint Mosely would be lucky to find a starting job in the Sun Belt Conference. These two have combined to throw 10 interceptions with just three touchdowns.
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It's not just the quarterback who is playing bad, no one on the offense has been able to step up and give this team some sort of life. Auburn is 106th in passing offense (172.0 ypg) and 91st in rushing (130.4 ypg). I'm confident even Mississippi's average defense can keep them in check, especially after watching Arkansas hold them to a touchdown. The Razorbacks had allowed 145 points over their last three games combined!
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Ole Miss has been the laughing stock of the SEC West for a few years now and this is their chance to let someone else feel what it's like to sit in the basement of this loaded division. The Rebels are just 3-3 overall but there's no denying that head coach Hugh Freeze has this team playing much better football. Ole Miss nearly upset a very good Texas A&M team at home last week, losing by a final of just 27-30.
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A lot of people don't realize how much talent the Rebels have on the offensive side of the ball. Starting quarterback Bo Wallace has been the spark plug that got this offense going. He has thrown for 1,145 yards and 8 touchdowns, while also rushing for 186 yards and three scores. Jeff Scott and Randall Mackey have combined for 652 yards and eight scores on the ground and Donte Moncrief has caught 27 passes for 453 yards and five touchdowns. The Rebels are going to put points on the board against a Auburn team that is lacking confidence and any real reason to show up on Saturday.
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Hard to see Auburn getting up for this game after two huge games against LSU and Arkansas, who are without question much bigger rivals than Ole Miss. It sets up a very favorable situation to bet Ole Miss. Auburn is 0-8 ATS in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992!
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Oregon St at BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Beavers visit the Cougars on Saturday in Corvallis. Some recent Trends Oregon State: •OREGON ST are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 road games. BYU: • BYU are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. • BYU are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. BYU has won the last 2 matchups 10/15/11 BYU 38 OREST 28 12/22/09 BYU 44 OREST 20 The stat that really shows up is the great defense the Cougars have played allowing just 10 points in their last 3 games. They also played 2 more games than Oregon St. Oregon St Mannion is out for the game as well. BYU wins in this tough tussel in Provo.
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Wyoming +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Air Force comes in with the slightly better SU record (2-3 SU vs 1-4 SU), but it's the COWBOYS of Wyoming that are the better spread team (3-1 ATS vs 2-2 ATS).
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With uncertainty at the quarterback position for Wyoming, where Brett Smith missed time early in the season and then faced a possible suspension after last week's ejection, this line was up above four points during some of the week. With Smith playing at home for the Cowboys, look for the line to drop even further. In other words, get on this early (though I am not sure Wyoming will end up favored like we have them, so there should be value that remains for the Cowboys no matter what).
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Ultimately, this pick has almost everything to do with Smith, the sophomore quarterback who led Wyoming to a bowl in 2011 in a season where he completed 61% of his passes for 2,622 yards, 20 TDs and 11 INTs while rushing for another 710 yards and 10 TDs. Smith suffered a concussion in a loss to Toledo and missed the game at home against Cal Poly. With Smith, Wyoming is 3-0 against-the-spread with two close road losses and a road win over Idaho. Without him, the Cowboys lost as favorites to Toledo at home and then against Cal Poly the next week. Last week, had he not been ejected for his second unsportsmanlike foul penalty against Nevada, Wyoming, which lost 35-28 in overtime, may have knocked off the Wolf Pack as 16 point underdogs.
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While we have made a strong case that Wyoming is a completely different and pretty good team with its best player in the lineup, Air Force just is not a great football team right now. The Falcons are 2-3 straight-up against just the 122nd ranked FBS schedule. Air Force's lone wins have come over Colorado State, our 107th ranked team, and Idaho State, a 1-4 FCS team. Air Force currently ranks 105th overall. And, not only did the Falcons lose at home, 25-17, to Smith and a similar Wyoming squad last season, Air Force only returned six starters from last year's team that was one of the better and more experienced Air Force teams in recent memory
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These two teams put up 1000 yards of offense last season in a 50-48 shoot-out (won by Baylor and RG3). TCU ended the nation's longest win streak after losing to Iowa State 37-23 as 7 point chalk. TCU will be looking to slow down the Baylor attack by feeding Matthew Tucker the ball on the ground. The Bears rank dead last in FBS defense giving up 39.8 points per game. On the flip side TCU is only giving up 13.2 a game and have the #1 scoring defense in the Big 12. Forgot about the loss to Iowa State as TCU was in total disarray due to losing QB Casey Pachall and turned the ball over FIVE TIMES, including two INTs in the 4th quarter. TCU rebounds huge and possibly could win this game outright.
NCAA Football Game of the Week (2-0 Last 2 weeks) - Kansas St (-6.5) *5 Units
Service Plays
Miami (+8) *3 Units
West Virginia (-3.5) *3 Units
Upset Pick of the Day (2-0 Last 2 weeks) - South Carolina (+125) *2 Units
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South Carolina vs. Louisiana State
Pick: South Carolina
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South Carolina and LSU come into tonight’s game from opposite ends of the spectrum. South Carolina is off their big 35-7 blowout win over Georgia while LSU comes in off a 14-6 loss at Florida. Normally, this would be a good situational spot for LSU. However, the Tigers are dealing with some major attrition issues, especially along their offensive line. The unit has been decimated by injuries, and going against one of the best defensive fronts in college football will be a monumental challenge. The Tigers offense has been terrible in their two SEC games; they’ve scored a total of 18 points while gaining a total of just 551 yards of offense. QB Zach Mettenberger has been brutal in the two conference games, and he’s facing an elite defense in this game which means the struggles will continue.
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South Carolina’s defense has been outstanding this season. The Gamecocks are allowing just 11 points and 278 yards per game. They’ve allowed a total of just 47 points in their four SEC games, and they are holding opponents to just 4.2 yards per play. There’s no question that LSU also has a stout defense, but South Carolina’s offense has scored a total of 121 points in their four conference games. This game figures to be a close defensive battle throughout, but we like the huge offensive edge that South Carolina has over LSU so we’ll recommend taking the points with the Gamecocks on Saturday night.
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Louisville vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Louisville
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The Louisville Cardinals (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) are coming off B2B road wins 28-21 over Fla. Intl. and 21-17 over Southern Miss. The Cardinals offense is currently ranked 52nd in the nation, putting up an average of 31 PPG.
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QB Teddy Bridgewater has been solid so far with a QB rating of 157.4 and 73% completion for 1,134 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT. Jeremy Wright (389 yards 5 TD) and Senorise Perry (458 yards 5 TD) lead a strong ground attack that has averaged 169.2 YPG, good for 58th.
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The defense has been a big strength for Louisville. They are 28th in PPG allowed (18.6), 25th in total yards allowed (321.4), 35th in rush yards allowed (118.2) and 34th in pass yards allowed (203.2). The Cardinals are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 overall and 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road.
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The Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) suffered a tough 14-13 loss at Syracuse last week. They are 2-1 at home including an impressive 35-17 victory over then #13 Virginia Tech.
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QB Tino Sunseri has been strong with a QB rating of 164.7, 1,463 yards with 8 TD and 2 INT however the run game has struggled averaging 72nd in the nation with 155.4 YPG. Overall the offense has been average scoring 26 PPG ranking them 78th overall in the nation.
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Line backer Shane Gordon (31 tackles 1.5 sacks) leads a Panthers defense that been strong despite the teams losing record. They are 39th in PPG allowed (21.2), 23rd in total yards allowed (320.2), 51st in rush yards allowed (134.8) and 23rd in pass yards allowed (185.4).
The Panthers are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall and 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at Heinz Field.
The Cardinals have lost the last 4 contests with the Panthers; not having beaten Pitt since 2007. This is their first Big East matchup of the season after coming off of a bye week; coach Strong has the team prepared for the task at hand.
Louisville is currently available -3 at most sports books. Take a look at the Cardinalts to win ATS.
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Texas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Under 58½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas fits a solid system that pertains to them being a Conference dog in non home games if they were a favorite of 7 or more and are getting less than 19, provided its Game 4 or later and this is their first loss. Texas plays with Big revenge in this one for a 55-10 Pasting last year in this game where they had 5 turnovers. Stoops for Oklahoma is 0-4 ats vs Texas when he has at least one loss. The Sooners have failed to cover 12 of 16 times in games before Playing Kansas and Texas has covered 5 of the last 6 in Game six. Coach Brown has covered 8 of 9 with Double Revenge. The Sooners have not faced an offense this good all season. This game should be a Nail biter and Will probably be decided on one or 2 of the last possessions.
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5 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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Iowa State +7 over KANSAS STATE: This has been a close series of late as the last 3 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Bill Snyder usually puts a lot of emphasis on the Kansas game and he has gone 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS the last 3 years following a game with their instate rivals. Now not only is he coming off a game with Kansas, but he has a game with West Virginia on deck. Im not sure they will be fully focused for this one. Kansas State is mostly about the run, ranking 9th in the country with 262 ypg on the ground, but they will have a tough time moving on the ground in this one as the Cyclones come in ranked 30th vs the run allowing just 115.8 ypg on a mere 3.3 ypc. The KSU defense has a weakness and that is vs the pass as they are 92nd vs the pass allowing 256 ypg. ISU should be able to exploit that pass defense a bit just like Kansas did last week hitting some big plays, while the game was still close. The Cyclones have been solid defensively overall, allowing just 15.8 ppg on the year, while at home they have allowed just 16.7 ppg. This is a tough spot for K-State, especially playing at ISU, where the Cyclones play well and have been known to pull some upsets. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST any undefeated from game 5 on out off a DD ATS win vs a .750 or greater opponent that's off a SU & ATS win. Teams in this spot are 3-25-1 since 1980.
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Florida -8.5 over VANDERBILT: The Gators are playing at a very high level right now, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I do not see a letdown from this team in this one. The Gators have been very special on defense, allowing just 284 ypg and 11.4 ppg, but whats more impressive is their 2nd half defense where they have allowed just 13 points all year on ZERO in the 4th quarter. This team that just gets stronger as the game goes on. The Vandy offense is not all that good, despite the fact that they average 366.2 ypg and 21.2 ppg on the year, but a closer look shows us that they average just 306.5 and score just 12 ppg vs FBS foes. For you prop bettors out there I do NOT see the Vandy offense putting up more that 10 points on this defense. On defense Vandy has surprised some but they has still allowed 389.5 ypg and 25.8 ppg vs FBS foes this year. The Gator offense is not flashy, but they will pound you as evidenced by their 214 ypg on the ground and that is not really good for a Vandy team that allow 179 ypg on the ground. That ground game really wears teams out and is a big reason why the Gators have outscored their opponents by a 78-13 count in the second half and a 41-0 count in the 4th quarter. The Gators had a close one last year vs Vandy and the Commodores just came off a road upset of Missouri, so Florida will not take them lightly here. The Gators have just too much defense in this one and will wear down Vandy in the second half on their way to a 17+ point win.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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LSU/ South Carolina Under 40: Boy I was surprised to see this line open at 42.5, but not surprised to see it dropping. in watching the Florida/ LSU game it was very evident that the LSU offense is very bad. Sure they have put up 33.5 ppg and 394 ypg, but in their 2 SEC games they have averaged just 9 ppg and 275.5 ypg. Last week the Tigers could muster just 200 yards and 8 first downs vs a very tough Florida defense and will be facing one that is just as good this week. Last week South Carolina allowed a powerful Georgia offense just 224 yards and 7 points, while for the year they allow just 278 ypg and 10.5 ppg. Since allowing 44 points to Arkansas last year the Gamecocks have allowed just 12.1 ppg and has allowed just 2 teams over that stretch to post more than 13 points. This is a tough defense that should have little problems in slowing down this sorry LSU that will have problems vs SEC defenses this year. Now knowing that LSU has offensive problems you can bet that Miles will use field position and his defense to try and win this one. The LSU offense may be bad, but their defense is still solid as ever, allowing just 221 ypg and 12.8 ppg. South Carolina's offense has been very good this year, but not this week at LSU where the Tigers play their best defense. LSU has no shot of winning this game getting into a high scoring game, so I fully expect a conservative game plane from less, knowing that he has a stout defense to keep the Gamecocks under wraps, which will give him his best shot at winning.
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BYU/ Oregon State Under 37: Google News Play This is my kinda game. A tough defensive battle. The BYU Cougars come in allowing just 8.8 ppg on the year (3rd in nation) and they allow just 229 total ypg, which is 5th in the nation. The Cougar defense also ranks first in the nation vs the run, allowing just 59.5 ypg. Now I feel that is significant, because OSU's 9th ranked passing game has taken a hit with the loss of Sean Mannion and they will have to turn to the run more in this one and they only rank 106th in that department this year. That will put young Cody Yaz (48 career passes, 35% comp Pct) in some long yardage downs, which I do not expect him to be able to pick up, especially vs a BYU defense that is 3rd in the nation in 3rd down pct (25%). This team knows how to get their defense off the field, but so does Oregon State as they come in raked first in the nation in 3rd down defense, allowing just 20.4%. The Beaver defense has been stout all year, allowing just 17 ppg (24th) and 355.8 ypg (42nd), while also ranking in the top 5 in rush defense (67.5 ypg), just like BYU. Now like the Beavers, the Cougars also don't run the ball well and they have gotten horrible play from their QB spot, which would indicate that they will too try and establish the run, but against the Beavers run defense I also see them in plenty of long yardage downs as well and they just don't have the weapons to get out of them. This should be a classic field position game with much more defense than offense and im not really expecting this game to escape the 20's.
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TCU/ Baylor Over 68: Google News Play The TCU Horned Frogs showed that they can move the ball last week without Pachall, as they put up 23 points and 455 yards of offense vs a much better defense than they will see in this one. Trevor Boykin threw for 270 yards last week and will take aim at Baylor defense that has allowed 400 yards passing per game on the year so far. Now no matter how good the TCU defense is, they will surrender plenty of points vs a Bears offense that has averaged 601.5 ypg and 543.3 ppg on the year. No One has stopped this offense yet and I don’t expect TCU to be able to stop them either. TCU will have to throw plenty in this game if they hope to stay in it and they should be able to do so with good success, while the Baylor offense will have great success of its own. Baylor’s 3 FBS games this year have averaged 101.7 ppg and I see no reason why this game can’t put at least 80 points on the board.
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POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY
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Play AGAINST home dogs of 14.5 or more off a loss of 21 more vs an opponent that is off a game in which 60+ points were scored. This play is 33-6 the last 5 seasons. Play on Oklahoma State -28 over Kansas
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Play AGAINST any road teams off an OT game if they lost ATS in the game and are playing a team off a SU & ATS win. This play is 21-5 since in its last 26 times it came up, including 11-0 in it's last 11. Play on Notre Dame -7 over Stanford
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Play AGAINST Any undefeated road teams from game 6 on out if they are playing with rest. Teams in this spot are just 5-30 ATS (11-24 SU). Play On Pittsburgh +4 over Louisville
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California at Washington St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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California (2-4) is feeling pretty good about themselves after their 43-17 win as a 2.5-point underdog against UCLA -- and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Zack Maynard may have played his best game as the quarterback for Cal in this game as he completed 25 of 30 passes for 295 yards while tossing four touchdown passes to just one interception -- but California has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Washington State (2-4) looks to rebound from their 19-6 loss at Oregon State in a game where they managed only 227 yards of offense. They did cover the 15.5-point spread as an underdog in that game -- and the Under is 33-16-3 in their last 52 games after a point spread victory. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played in the month of October. Take the Under.