Bob Balfe
Eastern Michigan +14.5 over Toledo
Eastern Michigan has a senior quarterback and running back that is behind a very experienced offensive line. Toledo lost all of their key starters on the defensive line and I expect Eastern Michigan to win the battle up front. Toledo has dominated this series as of late, but this is Eastern Michigan’s best shot for their seniors to get a win against a banged up football team. Toledo did not look that impressive last week against CMU and really won the game on gift interception returns for quick points. Look for EMU to keep this close and to get the cover. Take Eastern Michigan.
Florida State -28 over Boston College
Florida State had a lead over NC State last week on the road and were shocked in the final minutes of that game. Boston College is pretty much without every key starter on defense today and I expect FSU to put them away before halftime. This is a good Florida State Defense looking for revenge for last weeks letdown. Boston College has been horrible on defense this year which is not like them at all. With all of these injuries it should best easy for the Noles to have a field day. Take Florida State.
Auburn +6 over Ole Miss
Last year Auburn was very young and really impressed as they beat some quality teams. This team has a lot of young players with good experience. Ole Miss has young players without experience as they have a lot of first time starters on the field this year. Auburn has a pretty solid defense with a lot of depth on the defensive line. The Tigers played a tough schedule so far this year and their record is not a true indicator of the type of team they are. Auburn has won this game with ease over the past few series and I think the coaching is just better in addition to the players on the field. Look for the Tigers to get a big road win. Take Auburn.
Illinois +25 over Michigan
I don’t know why the odds makers have this game set so high. Illinois might not be having a good season, but they have talent players with a lot of experience. The forecast calls for gusty winds today so throwing perfect balls is going to be tough. Its going to be tough to score and still I cant get over why this line is so high. Michigan never really seems to be able to cover big spreads. A lot would have to go right for them today in addition to Illinois turning the ball over for quick points. I don’t see that happening and think this line has tremendous value. Take Illinois.
Arkansas -17 over Kentucky
Its no secret that Arkansas has struggled this year. When Wilson went down so did their team, but now he is back and I think they will be OK. Kentucky will be without their starting quarterback and running back. On defense they will be missing just about all of their secondary and this team is just flat out bad. Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson could have went to the NFL and made millions. He now is facing his worst nightmare. You can bet this team is going to beat up on anybody once they get a chance to get his numbers back up. Look for Arkansas to win big. Take the Razorbacks.
Texas Tech +4 over WVU
Geno Smith has been the most impressive QB in the nation so far, but he only played one game outside of West Virginia and in the win against Texas was very lucky the game went the way it did with some bonehead plays. Smith has 24 TD passes to 0 INT’s. That is amazing, but lets see how he does against a pretty good veteran defense and against a team that can score a lot with their offense. Texas Tech has a senior quarterback that will also have a big passing day against a WVU Defense that is not that good at all. The more balanced team is Texas Tech, but nobody is talking about them this year. Its hard for a team that is thin at running back to continue to throw the ball all over the field while playing bad defense. Its just a matter of time before it all catches up with them. Take Texas Tech at home.
Rice -2.5 over UTSA
Its very impressive that Texas San Antonio is 5-0 this year, but go look at who they have played. Never in the history of College Football has a program stepped up to D-1 Football and ran the table. This team is not ready to play with bigger programs. Rice is a young team especially on the offensive and defensive line, but instead of playing cup cakes they played some pretty decent teams. Rice is a bigger program and have much better players. They should get the home win here. Take Rice.
Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State vs. Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas St. is coming off another big win last week against Kansas which isn't saying much. The Wildcats improved to 5-0 on the season and are really starting to hear the BCS talk but I still do not think it has what it takes to get it done. Three win by wide margins saw them outgain their opponents by just 75, 20 and 87 yards and while the score is obviously the most important, winning games with similar yardage margins is not going to keep happening as the breaks will eventually go the other way. Iowa St. has snuck into the polls following the win over TCU last Saturday and I will be the first to admit that it wasn't that impressive of a win over the Horned Frogs. They were outgained by 105 total yards and benefitted from the suspension of TCU quarterback Casey Pachall earlier in the week. Even with that, the Cyclones are still a very solid team and can be a real sleeper with all of the experience they have. They are in a great spot as home underdogs here Saturday. Kansas St. is fifth in the nation yet it is an average 41st in the nation in total offense and 44th in total defense yet those offensive and defensive rankings in scoring go to 11th and 16th respectively. This is because the Wildcats are fifth in the country in turnover margin and makes a huge difference as they play offense on a short field and stop teams on defense after giving up yardage. These turnovers are hard to predict and as said before, those breaks will eventually dry up. The improvement of Iowa St. in recent years is evident in the fact that the Cyclones have now beaten a ranked opponent in each of the last three seasons which is the first time in school history that has happened. Possibly even more impressive that the Cyclones are a much improved team is that they have won six straight games decided by less than five points or in overtime since the beginning of last season. Good teams win close contests and Iowa St. has proved it. The Cyclones are getting done with defense this season as they are ranked 28th overall and 18th in scoring defense and that defense could be the difference here Kansas St. has won its last four games against Iowa St., but none by more than eight points so another close battle is in our favor when backing the underdog. This has proven right in the past as the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings in this series. Iowa St. is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
JR STEVENS
SYRACUSE +8 (-20) UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF THE WEEKAND MONEYLINE +245)
I don't care that RU is undefeated--they are a HUGE FRAUD! And the Cuse is the perfect team to take them down BIG today! Let's play the Cuse with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road team are a PERFECT 36-0 ATS if seeking revenge for a previous season loss and are facing an opponent who have won at least 3 consecutive SU and ATS wins! PREDICTION: SYRACUSE 30 RUTGERS 17
(PICK: FRESNO STATE +7.5 AND MONEYLINE +250)
Boise is coming off B2B games in which they scored 72 total points so their offense appears to be clicking again!! And today it's only reasonable to think they should blow out Fresno again given the fact they have won the last 6 meetings by a combined score of 299-93. Let's take Fresno with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road teams are a PERFECT 21-0 ATS if they are seeking revenge for B2B blowout losses!! The average line for the past 3 meetings in Boise was 23.5 with nothing lower than 21--there's a reason why the line is more than 2 TDs lower this time around!! PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE 27 BOISE STATE 23
(PICK: VANDERBILT +9 AND MONEYLINE +285)
Florida enters off their biggest win in recent years, a home game, and now has another huge home game on deck (South Carolina), a classic "sandwich" spot! Let's play Vandy with tremendous confidence knowing that certain conference road faves of 10.5 points or less are a PERFECT 0-24 ATS if coming off a home conference SU win as a dog and facing an opponent playing on revenge! PREDICTION: VANDERBILT 23 FLORIDA 17
(PICK: SOUTH CAROLINA +3 AND MONEYLINE +125)
LSU got shocked last week in Florida so it's only reasonable to think they will rebound at home, right?? WRONG!! Let's play SC with tremendous confidence knowing that certain home conference teams are a PERFECT 0-19 ATS if they are coming off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses and were outgained by their opponent the previous week!! PREDICTION: SOUTH CAROLINA 24 LSU 13
Frank Jordan
Stanford vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame
Stanford is number 17th in the country with a 4-1 record. Two weeks ago they lost at Washington 17-13, but bounced back nicely in overtime last time out at Arizona winning 54-48. Now is their biggest test of the season as they head to number 7th Notre Dame who undefeated at 5-0. Notre Dame is 2-0 so far this season against top 20 teams winning 20-3 at number 10 Michigan State and against number 18 Michigan 13-6. Notre Dame's has scored 20 or more points in four of their five wins and more impressive is their defense as they haven't allowed more than 17 points in all of their five games. Look for another great defensive performances from the Irish as they win 24-13. Play Notre Dame
Ray Monohan
Ohio State vs. Indiana
Play: Indiana
I think Saturday's matchup between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers is closer than most expect. The Hoosiers are quietly playing better football each week. Last week they had a 27-17 fourth quarter lead over Michigan St. before losing 31-27. They can move the ball. Indiana’s offense is putting up 469 yards of total offense per game. They average 11.4 more points per game, 111 yards more in total offense and 105 yards more in passing. Indiana's 11 passing touchdowns in five games has surpassed last year's season total of 10 in 12 games. Not to shabby. Meyer’s Buckeyes destroyed the Cornhuskers 63-38 in Columbus last week, and now enter this game 6-0 and ranked eighth in the nation. Sophomore quarterback Braxton Miller is playing like an All-American and potential Big Ten Player of the Year candidate. Not calling for an outright win or anything since Indiana hasn't beat OSU since 1988 but I like the Hoosiers to keep this one respectable. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
SPORTS WAGERS
UFC 153 – Rio de Janiero
Rick Story +130 over Demian Maia
Rick "The Horror" Story started his UFC career by winning six of his first seven fights and getting into title contention. Losses to Charlie Brenneman and Martin Kampmann stopped his momentum but a win over Maia in his home country would certainly put him back on track. Story is a former collegiate wrestler and is also a very good boxer with knockout power, which makes this matchup a favorable one for him.
Demian Maia is one of the best submission aces not just in the UFC, but in the world. His accolades in the best grappling tournaments in the world speak for themselves. After his UFC career stalled out in the middleweight he deemed that a drop in weight class was in order. His first fight at welterweight ended in less than a minute due to his opponent suffering a freak injury. In reality, we don't yet have an accurate barometer of how Maia is going to perform at his new weight. He had cardio issues at times when he was a middleweight. If his weight cut to 170 LBS is a tough one he will be drained in the second half of this fight. Maia will look to try to close distance and clinch with Story and then try to trip him to get the fight on the mat where he can put his submission skills to good use. Maia's striking has come a long way and is serviceable but will never be the way for him to win fights at the upper levels in the welterweight or middleweight divisions.
Story will try to keep this fight standing. It would be foolhardy for him to attempt any takedowns and give Maia exactly what he wants. Story is very strong and Maia will not have an easy time of it trying to take him down. Additionally, Maia has had trouble with heavy-handed punchers and he will get tagged a few times in this one as he's trying to close the distance. Story is very capable of winning by KO or decision over a gassed Demain Maia.
SPORTS WAGERS
PURDUE -1 +100 over Wisconsin
The Boilermakers’ stock took a huge drop last week after that blowout loss to the Wolverines. They’ve now lost to both quality teams they’ve played this season and that raises questions as to their credibility.
The schedule has provided them with an opportunity to respond against another perceived decent team but we’re not buying into the Badgers even for a moment. This is the most offensively inept Wisconsin team in a decade with its four wins coming against weak opposition (UTEP, Northern Iowa, Utah State and Illinois). Despite the weak competition, the Badgers rank 95th passing and 88th rushing in the nation.
The Boilermakers have to respond this week. The Big-10 championship is up for grabs and this team is too talented to settle for a minor bowl bid. Expect Purdue to come out with an intense desire and focus. This week’s opponent is beatable. The Badgers are a power team that lacks a QB and that suits the Boilermakers much better than Michigan’s style. Nothing less than a redemptive performance will be acceptable and that’s precisely what we expect.
UAB +13 -105 over HOUSTON
In the season’s first two weeks we were able to fade an overpriced Cougar team that we insisted were a fraction of the team they were in their previous three years. As prohibitive favorites, they lost straight up to both Texas State and Louisiana Tech. They also lost to UCLA in week 3 but were expected to do so. Back-to-back winning weeks have followed, which provides us another fade opportunity against this imposter.
UAB has been perennial bottom feeders for years but Coach Garrick McGee has them on the right track. The Blazers haven’t beaten an FBS team yet but it has played well at Ohio State and South Carolina and is seeing the offense click nicely after a quarterback change. UAB is unlikely to stop the Cougars but this Houston team tends to stop itself at times and the Blazers can shoot it out with the best in C-USA. Seldom will we endorse a team that we don’t think can win outright. This one is no different with the double-digits offered being more than enough to tempt us in a road game where the underdog can pull off the upset.
South Carolina +3 -110 over LSU
Featured game has the 9th ranked team in the country hosting the 3rd ranked team but only one of those rankings is legit.
LSU is 5-1 and they have a nice win over Washington but last week’s loss to a quality Gators team that plays defense revealed some glaring issues with this year’s edition of the Tigers. LSU’s offense is predictable, it has significant QB issues and it lacks leadership. Contrary to popular belief, the 2012 Tigers are falling well short of the dominant teams that are associated with this program.
South Carolina is still the favorite in the SEC East and the biggest threat to Alabama. They’re a complete team with championship calibre talent, coaching, experience and leadership. Steve Spurrier's charges are in a class above LSU this year and have the maturity to handle a tough road game after a big 35-7 win over #5 Georgia in a contest they barely broke a sweat in.
Southern Miss +17 -105 over UCF
Southern Miss is a proud program riding a lightly publicized but very impressive streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons that is very likely to end this season with its current 0-5 record. That record has them grossly undervalued here. This week's contest with a familiar conference foe is a game Southern Miss can win straight up. The Eagles have played a very tough schedule and things begin to ease up here.
Central Florida is a solid, complete team but the Knights may not be giving this visitor much credit after waxing an East Carolina squad that humiliated the Eagles in their home opener. Southern Miss matches up physically with the Knights in a way that many C-USA teams do not and it's also 6-1 against UCF in a series that has been dominated by the underdog. The Eagles haven't quit on the season yet and this is a very large number for what could be a defensive game between two teams with comparable rosters and a competitive history. Eagles keep this one unexpectedly close.
Jimmy Moore
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
Play: Toledo
The Rockets have won 5 games SU in a row after a season opening OT loss at Arizona and they look to be unstoppable here since the Eagles defense is looking completely pathetic. Toledo has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and 10 of 11 looks to be coming on Saturday afternoon.
Scott Delaney
Bad time for the Buffalo Bulls to roam into Dekalb, Illinois, as it's homecoming for the Northern Illinois Huskies, and you best believe it'll be lively at at Huskie Stadium. We have the top two rushing attacks in the Mid American Conference ready to do battle, and my money is on the Huskies running away with this one, literally.
Northern Illinois (5-1, 2-0 MAC) has won five in a row after dropping its first game, and leads the MAC with 245 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th best in the nation.
And while the Huskies know how to run the pill, keep an eye on quartback Jordan Lynch, who is having a remarkable campaign, ranking eighth in the nation in rushing average with 131.5 yards. The dual-threat beast has a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while his passing efficiency rating of 142.4 ranks 40th in the nation.
Buffalo, primarily a rushing team, has to rely on quarterback Alex Zordich, who hasn't been very effective for the Bulls. He's completed less than 50 percent of his passes and has thrown just 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. It's uncertain whether he'll have the balance he needs from running back Branden Oliver, the star of this offense.
Oliver missed the last two games because of a knee injury, and though he is expected to return against the Huskies, I don't know how healthy he'll be, which is why I said the Bulls will be relying on Zordich.
The Bulls come into this one mired in ATS slides of 5-12 ATS in conference play, 3-9 against winning teams and 1-5 after an ATS cover. On the other hand, Northern Illinois is on ATS win streaks of 5-0 at home, 9-2 in October, 14-6 in conference play and 6-1 overall.
This game marks Buffalo's third straight road game and again, this is the wrong week to be visiting the Huskies. The Bulls will keep it close for a bit, but the Huskies will have no trouble pulling away late for the win and cover.
4♦ NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Chuck O'Brien
My early freebie is going to be on the Minnesota Golden Gophers against the Northwestern Wildcats, as I think the home dog is rabid and ready to strike. Make note, as soon as this game kicks off at 9 a.m. pacific, I will have your late free winner available here, as I breakdown the TCU-Baylor contest that kicks off at 4 p.m. Vegas time.
Now, let's breakdown the Golden Gophers, who roll in on ATS win streaks of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 6-0 at home, 5-0 againt winning team, 5-1 in Big 10 polay and 8-2 overall.
Northwestern quarterback Kain Colter ranks ninth in the Big 10 Conference with an average of 65.8 yards rushing per game. He's good enough to move to wide receiver, while making room for sophomore signal-caller Trevor Siemian, the more pure passer of the two. That being said, the Gophers have the 20th-best pass defense, and I don't think the multi-quarterback ploy is going to work. Not when Minnesota is stinging from its Sept. 29 loss in Iowa, and would love nothing more than to even its Big 10 record to 1-1 after taking last week off.
Penn State may have laid the blueprint last week for the idle Gophers, as the Nittany Lions tamed the Wildcats' offensive game in a come-from-behind, 39-28 win.
I've watched this Minnesota team up close, and I think it's a dangerous team for any unassuming Big 10 squad that thinks this is the same ol' Big 10 pushover from year's past.
Apparently senior quarterback MarQueis Gray returned to practice this past week after suffering knee and ankle sprains on his left leg at the end of a run on Sept. 15 against Western Michigan. I don't think he'll start, but he is ready to go, and can provide an electrive spark if fill-in Max Shortell runs into trouble. Shortell has had plenty of experience under center, filling in for Gray last season too.
Northwestern, as powerful as its been this season, arrives on University Ave in Minneapolis, Minnesota on ATS losing streaks of 2-5 against winning teams, 5-13 in Big 10 play, 1-4 after losses both SU and ATS and a dismal 2-10 in the month of October.
The Wildcats have been Minnesota's homecoming opponent in six of the last 18 seasons, and Northwestern has knocked off the Gophers to spoil the gig in five of those games. Plus, Northwestern has won five of the last seven road games against the Gophers.
What does all that mean to this year's roster? Nothing, really. But it's strong bulletin board material for an improving Gophers team that could use a big win here, before heading to Madison, Wisconsin to play the Badgers next week.
Take the home underdog here.
5♦ MINNESOTA
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on Ohio State/Indiana to go OVER the total.
This year's version of OSU's defense isn't much different than last year's, and coming off an emotional win over Nebraska last week, I've got to think their defense is going to come out flat.
Shoot, OSU might even fall behind. Remember, this is a night game and the folks in Bloomington will have all day to get nice and "waspy"!! They will be loud, obnoxious, and supportive of their Hoosiers... win or lose.
HC Kevin Wilson has done a nice job with this offense since taking over, but the defense is another story. They couldn't even hold a double digit lead vs. Michigan State in a game they probably should have won. And today they face an Ohio State offense that racked up 600 yards of offense and 63 points in a big win over Nebraska last week.
No, I'm not saying OSU is going to score 63 points again today, but I don't see any reason they can't come in around 48-49. That means I only need a few TDs from Indiana... and that's not going to be a problem.
Take OSU/Indiana to go OVER the posted total as your free play of the day.
2♦ OHIO STATE-INDIANA OVER
Jeff Benton
Navy outright last night for free.
Now a 15-7 freebie run.
Your Saturday freebie is Florida State as the big chalk at home against Boston College.
No doubt in my mind the Seminoles will be seething after blowing a 16-0 lead last week at N.C. State in a 17-16 loss - their first of the season. Expect the Sems to show no mercy on the backsliding Eagles who come to Tallahassee having lost each of their last three games both straight up and against the spread, as Boston College is now just 1-4 this year with their only win coming against Maine.
Boston College allowed nearly 600 yards of offense in their loss to Army, and they also allowed 5 sacks of the quarterback in that setback. The Florida State defense should be in the backfield all night long in this one, and the fact they are allowing only 18 points per game through their first six games does not bode well for the Eagles at all.
Florida State romped BC 38-7 last season in Chesnut Hill, and a similar final would be no surprise at all in this season's meeting.
It is a four touchdown impost, but I see the Seminoles taking this one by a full five touchdowns.
Lay it with the Sems in a big blowout.
4♦ FLORIDA STATE
Chris Jordan
My free winner is going to be taking you to Saturday's Red River Rivalry, as I jump ahead to the annual Texas-Oklahoma battle.
Amazingly, there's a little more to this annual showdown - one college football's most colorful rivalries - than is usually at stake. It's not too often we find neither team ranked in the Top 10 - this is the first time since 1999 - and it'll mark the first time in 15 seasons both tams will have a conference loss upon meeting.
Survival of the fittest during the Texas State Fair. And something tells me the money has to go on the 'Horns in this one, as I just don't beleive the Sooners are going to be able to stop Texas' lethal running game. The Longhorns average 209.4 yards per game behind a power trifecta of Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron and Johnathan Gray. And the Sooners check in with a sub-par ranking of 56th in the nation against the rush, allowing more than 140 yards per game. That number will swell against the aggies.
This is a double-revenge situation for the Longhorns (4-1, 1-1), as the Sooners (3-1, 1-1 Big 12) have won the last two games. So there is even more motivation for Texas, who I think will be poised under the guidance of quarterback David Ash. He's prospered nicely under offensive coordinators Bryan Harsin and Major Applewhite, not to mention the complement of having three gifted backs.
The biggest question mark coming into this season was whether or not Ash and/or Case McCoy could avoid turnovers and avoid breakdowns on the road. Well, Ash has thrown 11 touchdowns versus just one interception this season, and ranks third nationally in passer efficiency. And, the Longhorns are 2-0 on the road with a 66-31 win at Ole Miss and a 41-36 win at Oklahoma State. Overall, Texas ranks sixth in the nation in producing an average of 46.8 points per game.
On defense, I honestly think by the end of this season we could be looking at a seasoned Longhorns stop unit with the best pass rush and pass defense in the Big 12. The team's linebackers wreak of potential, and though they come in off a breakdown - and the team's first loss - against West Virginia, I reserve the right to remind everyone the Mountaineers may have the most electrified offense in the land.
I know Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones is on pace to break Steve Davis' school record with a 33rd career win, as he's sitting at 32-8. I know Sooners coach Bob Stoops is 8-5 head-to-head against Texas' Mack Brown, including wins the last two seasons. And I know the higher-ranked Sooners will be looking to carry over momentum from last year's 55-17 win in this game.
But believe me when I tell you this is a team that would make one helluva statement with a win here, because Brown has been quoted in saying his Longhorns are maybe two or three seasons away from another national title run. It's going to take season-building wins - big wins - like this game against Oklahoma. Big game for the 'Horns, and I'm going to take the points. I'll even buy the half point up to +3-1/2, in case the line goes back down to +3.
2♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
Saturday free play winner on the underdog Commodores plus the points as they play host to Florida in what we like to call a "sandwich game".
Florida is fresh off their huge emotional upset win at home over LSU, and they do have a home clash with Top-Five South Carolina up next, not to mention their annual "cocktail party" with Georgia the weekend after. It will be interesting to see if Will Muschamp can keep his team on even keel this weekend in Nashville.
Vandy got a jolt in the arm with their upset win at Missouri last weekend, and they are a perfect 9-0 against the spread at home under head coach John Franklin, including their opening night underdog cover against South Carolina in a game they surely could have won outright.
Florida has not lost outright to Vanderbilt since the late 1980's, and I do not expect them to lose outright in this spot, but the dynamics are certainly there for Vandy to keep the Gators on their toes for all four quarters.
Live home underdog in this one.
Play Vanderbilt plus the points.
2♦ VANDERBILT
Harry Bondi
Wisconsin +1
Purdue stepped up in class last week and got waxed by a very average Michigan team at home, 44-13, and we could see a similar result today. The Badgers' offensive line and tight ends are big enough to handle Purdue's defensive front, and that will allow the offense to be aggressive with their play-calling, just like last week when it steamrolled Illinois. The Badgers -- who have covered 5 of their last 6 as an underdog -- have been a different team on offense since Joel Stave took over the starting quarterback duties from Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien, averaging 31.7 points and 381.7 total yards per game, compared to 16.3 points and 276 total yards in its first three games with O'Brien at the helm. The Badgers have won the last four in the series by an average of 31 points per game and get the "W" again today as they close in on a berth in the Big 10 Championship Game.