Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 15

Detroit at Texas
The Rangers look to build on their 7-1 record in Derek Holland's last 8 starts as a favorite from -110 to -150. Texas is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150)

Game 921-922: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 14.715; Texas (Holland) 16.384
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under

NHL

Ottawa at Washington
The Senators look to bounce back from their 7-1 loss to Colorado and build on their 12-3 record in their last 15 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Ottawa is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+190)

Game 51-52: Calgary at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.768; Toronto 11.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110); Under

Game 53-54: Colorado at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.923; Montreal 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Over

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.164; NY Islanders 10.773
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-120); Over

Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.193; Philadelphia 12.293
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Under

Game 59-60: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.363; Pittsburgh 12.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Phoenix (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.325; Phoenix 10.924
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+135); Over

Game 63-64: Ottawa at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.162; Washington 10.968
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+190); Over

Game 65-66: Tampa Bay at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.495; Florida 11.130
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); Under

Game 67-68: New Jersey at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.213; Nashville 11.954
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 69-70: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.221; Minnesota 10.993
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under

Game 71-72: Columbus at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.537; Dallas 10.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+135); Under

Game 73-74: Boston at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.530; Chicago 11.982
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over

Game 75-76: Vancouver at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.301; Edmonton 10.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150); Over

Game 77-78: St. Louis at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.323; San Jose 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-165); Under

CFL

Winnipeg at Edmonton
The Bluebombers look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. Winnipeg is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+2 1/2)

Game 293-294: Winnipeg at Edmonton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 114.453; Edmonton 115.615
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 2 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+2 1/2); Under

Ben Burns

Alabama @ Mississippi
PICK: Mississippi

Obviously, Alabama is the stronger team in this one. However, given the venue and scheduling situation, I feel the line will prove to be a little on the high side. While the Crimson Tide will be playing for a seventh straight week, the Rebels had a bye last week, giving them some extra preparation time. Note that they're 2-1 SU (2-0 ATS) last three times that they were off a bye. Also, note that prior to the week off, the Rebels had "gotten healthy" by traveling to Fresno and beating up on the Bulldogs. They were four point underdogs in that one but won by 10.

Last season's meeting between these teams was played at Alabama. The Crimson Tide were 20 point favorites but won by "only" 13. The previous season, when the teams played here at Oxford, the Rebels also stayed within 20, losing 22-3.

Speaking of "large pointspreads," the Rebels are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs in the +21.5 to +31 range. If the line stays above the 24 mark, consider taking the points.

Matt Fargo

Georgia Tech @ Virginia
PICK: Virginia

Georgia Tech is off to a perfect 6-0 start and with these undefeated records come overvalued lines and that is the case here. The Yellow Jackets covered their first three games before an unfortunate push against NC State and then a spread loss last week against Maryland. Despite this, the public continues to hammer Georgia Tech as over 80 percent of the early action has come in on the road team. Sharp money has offset this though as this line has not moved since opening.

Virginia has played better than its 3-2 record indicates as it has yet to lose the yardage battle and realistically, both of its losses could have been wins. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS this season, which gives value as trend players want no part of this record. However, it is a strong contrarian play to go against that as contrarian moves usually mean undervalued situations and this is one of those here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech option attack which is huge when facing these schemes.

The Cavaliers have taken a different approach to preparing for the Yellow Jackets offense as they have been practicing without a football. "You never know who's going to get the football in this offense," Virginia defensive end Billy Schautz said. "So, we want to tackle everybody, every option, take 'em to the ground. It's helped us out a lot." The key to stopping the offense, or at least slowing it down, is to focus on responsibility and not overreact to where the ball is thought to be going.

Virginia needs to keep its own offense on the field to keep the Yellow Jackets offense off the field. Maryland did a good job of that last week and it paid off as Georgia Tech was held to a season low 21 points. Virginia has won the time of possession battle through its first five games of the season, holding the ball an average of 32:42 to 27:18 for opponents. The key though is to remain aggressive on offense as the same time because Virginia needs to get its own offense moving as well.

Georgia Tech is 6-0 for the first time since 1966 which is a major accomplishment for sure. Virginia has had some very average seasons over the last few years but it has held its own against the Yellow Jackets, winning five of the last eight meetings. The Cavaliers have a realistic shot to get bowl eligible, but they may need an upset or two along the way and this is certainly a good opportunity to grab one of those. The Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. 3* Virginia Cavaliers

Brad Diamond Sports

LSU over Tennessee

Our preseason forecast indicated Florida had a shot to test LSU last week, but injuries (Brantley and Demps) pretty much circumvented that possibility. The real key part of the equation was not having the Demps information earlier in the week as it cost us a web selection. Obviously, Muschamp has learned well from the habits of Little Nicky. The Tigers defense held the Florida offense to 9 first downs 213 yards in total offense. In the SEC, there is not much you can do with that type performance, ditto a 41-11 LSU win! At home last week the Vols thought their night time affair would turn out to be a sweet UPSET, but Georgia won out 20-12. The disturbing issue within the encounter was the minus 20 yards rushing formulated by the young Vols. They did manage 290 yards through the air. But, in the second-half QB Tyler Bray was 0-6 in third down situations with 91 yards throwing the football. To add insult to injury the youngster has been lost to injury for at least six-weeks. Last year, UT dropped a difficult game to LSU in Baton Rouge because they had too many men on the field on the last play of the game. On the very next play, the now New England Patriots running back Steven Ridley crossed the goal line for an LSU win 16-14. So, Saturday would have served as a huge UPSET ANGLE before Bray went down. Personally, I don't have much confidence in second-string QB Matt Simms of Tennessee. Add, LSU has probably the fastest defense in American ranked #5 by the NCAA allowing 285 yards per game and 3.85 yards per play, so you can imagine how difficult the battle will become for Simms and the Vols. The Tigers bullish running attack should pretty much control the tempo and new their new weapon punter Brad Wingo will help with field position all day. LSU 30 Tennessee 7

Scott Spreitzer

Northwestern at Iowa
Prediction: Under

The Iowa Hawkeyes play host to Northwestern this week in what has been an underdog series by Vegas standards. Indeed, the team receiving points has covered six straight meetings. It was an interesting side note early this week when a Northwestern player went on record that his HC, Pat Fitzgerald, "hates" the Iowa Hawkeyes. A lot has been made of this in some circles. It has nothing to do with my handicapping, but felt it was worth mentioning for that reason. What does matter to me is that Northwestern has been horrible on defense this season. They're 106th in FBS in total defense, including 100th against the pass and 87th against the run. Those numbers must have Hawkeye QB James Vandenberg champing at the bit. Vandenberg went into last week's game in Happy Valley as the Big-10's top-rated passer. He had a rough day against Penn State, (as we thought he would), but the Nittany Lions' 4th ranked defense and the Wildcats' stop unit are two different animals. And despite the fact that Iowa was held to 253 total yards, they did have chances to cover the spread at the very least. While I expect Iowa to put their share of points on the board, I can't lay the points this week. Northwestern's offensive numbers don't look too hot on the season. But the stats aren't a true gauge since QB Dan Persa missed some time. The problem is that everyone knows the strength of these two offenses is at quarterback, so we saw the linesmaker's post 55 for the opening total. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a final score in the 27-21 neighborhood, which would extend the Under run in this series to 7-0! And it must be noted that once Michigan made defensive adjustments, Northwestern's offense couldn't reach paydirt, unfortunately for me. In fact, their second half drives went like this: 3-plays for minus-6 yards; 4-plays for 23 yards; 5-plays for 44 yards; 8-plays for minus-13 yards; and 10-plays for 79 yards...the final drive of the game when the Wolverines dropped off on defense - leading by 18 points. The final note on this contest: We must remember, with this relatively high total, that last year Iowa led 17-7 in the 4th quarter before Northwestern stormed back for the 21-17 win. Dan Persa led the comeback before suffering a season-ending injury on the game-winning TD pass. The point is, the teams went Under for the 6th straight meeting. I expect more of the same. I'm recommending a play on the Under between Northwestern & Iowa.

Tony Stoffo

Miami Florida vs. North Carolina
Play: Over 51.5

Our first Sharp Money play of the weekend goes here as all the early smart money has come pouring in on the Over as Miami takes on North Carolina here. And I can see why as the Hurricanes offense is clicking on all cylinders right now as there 519 yards of total offense and 35 point outburst against a solid Virginia Tech defense on the road would attest to. Plus add in these solid trends calling for another high scoring game here only adds to a strong release on the Over in this spot today. Coaching Trend Golden is 9-1 Over in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached. Over is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 games as a road underdog. Over is 7-1 in Tar Heels last 8 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between the Hurricanes and Tar Heels.

Tony George

Buffalo vs. Temple
Play: Temple -21

Usually as a pro handicapper I do not promote laying big numbers as a rule, especially in the NFL, but in this NCAA Matchup it is fully warranted. In order to feel comfy laying big numbers in potential NCAA Blowouts, there has to be a serious mis-match. For instance my Game of the Year in College this year was laying 14 points with Georgia Tech against Kansas, final score was 66-24. While I do not think Temple can rack up 66 points in this one, they can eclipse 40. The other side of the equation is simple, Buffalo is off an upset win over Ohio U, and I love to go against teams who are not all that good, off an emotional upset win against a good opponent the following week.

As I look at Temple, all 4 of their wins this season are by 31 points or more, and their losses were to Penn State in a game they led for almost the entire game and blew it, and one where they dropped their dropped their guard against Toledo after beating Maryland (let down spot like this one for Buffalo). The Owls running game is top notch and remember this is a team on the road who dominated and blew out a decent Maryland team. The score in this game was 42-0 last year at Temple. Last week QB Anderson for Buffalo racked up huge yards throwing it against an unprepared Ohio team, but the Temple pass defense is ranked 9th in the nation, and their defense overall allows 11 ppg. The last 2 games against Buffalo the Owls have pounded the Bulls by 66 points combined in those wins. Total mis-match again, Owls roll.

Steve Merril

Michigan vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan +2.5

Michigan has gotten off to another great start at 6-0. The Wolverines opened 2010 at 5-0 and 2009 at 4-0. But 2010 ended with a 7-6 record and 2009 ended with a 5-7 record. The question remains to be answered. Will Michigan continue to win, or fold up their tent as they have in recent seasons? Saturday’s game at Michigan St could very well be the deciding factor; it’s probably the most important game that the Wolverines have played over the last three seasons. Michigan’s seniors have never beaten their in-state rival, but this will definitely be their best chance to do so. Michigan St’s defense is ranked #1 overall in the country. But if you look at their defense from the standpoint of who have they have played, they may not be as strong defensively as the numbers would indicate. So far this season, Michigan St’s opponents have combined to average just 340 yards of total offense per game which ranks 95th nationally. If you take away the Notre Dame game, the average offense drops to 298 yards per game which would rank 112th. The only legitimate offense they faced this season was Notre Dame, and the Spartans lost that game 31-13. We’re not saying that Michigan St’s defense is a total fraud, but their gaudy numbers can be mostly attributed to facing weak offensive teams. Michigan is averaging 38 points per game on over 450 yards of offense per game. The Wolverines are averaging a whopping 7.4 yards per play this season. QB Denard Robinson is the ultimate playmaker, and his performance is usually the key to success for the Wolverines. Michigan’s offense is capable of controlling the clock with their dominating running game (257 yards per game on 6.3 yards per rush). And if they are able to play with a lead, they can rely on their defense which has allowed only 7 points in the fourth quarter all season long; the Wolverines have out-scored their opponents 62-7 in the fourth quarter this season. Overall, Michigan’s defense has improved by 115 yards per game so far this season; they are allowing just 336 yards per game compared to 451 yards per game in 2010. As stated above, no game will make a bigger statement about the condition of the Michigan football program than this one in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wolverines beat their rival for the first time since 2007.

BIG AL

North Texas @ La.-Lafayette
PICK: North Texas +9.5

The Mean Green are on quite a roll in Vegas. Last week, North Texas steamrolled the Owls of Florida Atlantic, 31-17, and that was its fourth straight pointspread win. For the season, the Mean Green are just 2-4 straight up, though, and have been installed as an 8.5-point underdog at the 5-1 Lafayette Rajin Cajuns. I like North Texas in this underdog role on Saturday, as the Mean Green is 6-0 ATS at Lafayette their last six meetings. Additionally, the Cajuns upset Troy State last week as a 6-point underdog, and Lafayette is a poor 0-6 ATS off an upset win over the last three seasons. Grab the points with North Texas.

Larry Ness

Florida St. / Duke Over 54.5

Once upon a time the the Florida State Seminoles were thought to be BCS title-game contenders. However, that seems like a 'lifetime' ago now. In fact, when FSU takes the field in Durham against Duke on Saturday, the Seminoles will be more concerned with just getting a win, than anything else. FSU's three-game slide began back on September 17 when it lost its showdown with then-No. 1 Oklahoma at home in Tallahassee. The then-No. 5 ranked Seminoles looked "out of the Sooners class" that night and subsequent losses have followed at Clemson (first loss to the Tigers since 1951) and at Wake Forest (just Wake's fourth win in 20 ACC meetings with FSU). Meanwhile, Duke began its season 0-2, including am embarrassing 23-21 home loss to FCS-opponent Richmond in its season opener. However, the Blue Devils have ripped off three straight wins since then, including wins at Boston College and FIU, sandwiched around a home rout of Tulane. The record book reveals that Duke has NEVER beaten FSU, going 0-16 all-time, with the average score being 51-16 (no game closer than 19 points!). However, David Cutcliffe's team has to be as confident as any Duke team ever has, leading up to a meeting with FSU. The Blue Devils have had an extra week to prepare and FSU comes in with very little "going right" as of late. That being said, the FSU athletes are vastly superior to Duke's and the Blue Devils defense comes in allowing 28.0 PPG and 401.2 YPG. How can't FSU score here? However, much of Duke's early season turnaround can be attributed to the play of QB Sean Renfree. He has thrown for 1,361 yards and five touchdowns with only two interceptions. Neither team has much of a running game, with Duke averaging 97.8 YPG (107th) and FSU ranking even lower than that with 85.6 YPG (112th). That sets up for an 'over play' and that EXACTLY where I'll be.

Marc Lawrence

South Carolina at Mississippi St.
Prediction: Mississippi St.

We now turn to the SEC and we’ve got quite a quarterback mess to sort out. Mississippi State replaced an ineffective Chris Relf with Tyler Russell in the second half and all Russell did was toss three touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ 21-3 win over UAB last week. Meanwhile, the Ol’ Ball Coach had seen enough of Stephen Garcia's drunken stupors, replacing him with Connor Shaw. Shaw promptly delivered in spades, going 26 of 39 for 311 yards with four TD’s and zero INT’s in last week’s home rout of Kentucky. The thought here, though, is Shaw’s first road start comes against a quality foe looking to get back in the bowl chase and it won’t be all peaches and cream as conference home dogs off a SU win in which they allowed less than 7 points as favorites of 20 or more points are 11-2 ATS when seeking revenge. The live home dog gets the call. We recommend a 1-unit play on Mississippi State.

Sam Martin

Utah St. at Fresno St.
Prediction: Utah St.

We backed the Aggies last week in their big 63-19 blowout win against Wyoming, and we'll back them once again this week as our 5* Member Play. Utah State is a few unlucky breaks away from coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 record, and last week's blowout win gave this roster a much-needed confidence booster. Their rushing game should have no problem moving the ball against a Fresno State team that was once against crushed by Boise State, and the letdown from that awful showing should linger on to this week. Utah State wins this game by double-digits! 5* Play on Utah State.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Georgia at Vanderbilt

We just don't see Vandy scoring many points in this matchup with surging Georgia. The Dawgs have allowed 13 points or less in four straight games (all wins) and face a Commodores' offense that comes in having rushed for 45 yards - on 44 carries - the previous two weeks. Those two games have resulted in combined losses by a score of 55-3 to South Carolina and Alabama. The Commies' passing attack ranks 119th in the country. The team is just 2-9 ATS its last 11 SEC games and 0-7 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Having won their last nine trips to Nashville, eight of them coming by double digits, we look for UGA to win big Saturday night.

Play on: Georgia

Steve Merril

Michigan vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan +2.5

Michigan has gotten off to another great start at 6-0. The Wolverines opened 2010 at 5-0 and 2009 at 4-0. But 2010 ended with a 7-6 record and 2009 ended with a 5-7 record. The question remains to be answered. Will Michigan continue to win, or fold up their tent as they have in recent seasons? Saturday’s game at Michigan St could very well be the deciding factor; it’s probably the most important game that the Wolverines have played over the last three seasons. Michigan’s seniors have never beaten their in-state rival, but this will definitely be their best chance to do so. Michigan St’s defense is ranked #1 overall in the country. But if you look at their defense from the standpoint of who have they have played, they may not be as strong defensively as the numbers would indicate. So far this season, Michigan St’s opponents have combined to average just 340 yards of total offense per game which ranks 95th nationally. If you take away the Notre Dame game, the average offense drops to 298 yards per game which would rank 112th. The only legitimate offense they faced this season was Notre Dame, and the Spartans lost that game 31-13. We’re not saying that Michigan St’s defense is a total fraud, but their gaudy numbers can be mostly attributed to facing weak offensive teams. Michigan is averaging 38 points per game on over 450 yards of offense per game. The Wolverines are averaging a whopping 7.4 yards per play this season. QB Denard Robinson is the ultimate playmaker, and his performance is usually the key to success for the Wolverines. Michigan’s offense is capable of controlling the clock with their dominating running game (257 yards per game on 6.3 yards per rush). And if they are able to play with a lead, they can rely on their defense which has allowed only 7 points in the fourth quarter all season long; the Wolverines have out-scored their opponents 62-7 in the fourth quarter this season. Overall, Michigan’s defense has improved by 115 yards per game so far this season; they are allowing just 336 yards per game compared to 451 yards per game in 2010. As stated above, no game will make a bigger statement about the condition of the Michigan football program than this one in East Lansing on Saturday. The Wolverines beat their rival for the first time since 2007.