Teddy Covers
Central Florida @ Mustangs
PICK: Central Florida +3.5
The betting markets have soured on Central Florida following their third consecutive ATS loss last week. The money had poured in on George O’Leary’s squad in each of the previous three games. Against Florida International, heavy UCF money drove the line from -4.5 to -7. At BYU, UCF money drove the line from +3.5 down to +1. And last week, against Marshall, the money absolutely poured in on the Knights, driving the line from -14.5 to -20. Central Florida lost two of those games outright, and never sniffed a spread cover in last week’s 16-6 win over Marshall.
That gives us the ideal elements in play to support the Golden Knights as they travel to SMU on Saturday. Instead of laying points, we’re taking points. Instead of being a hot wiseguy team, taking big money every week, the Knights are now officially on the ‘wiseguy’ fade list. That, folks, is the definition of what ‘value’ really means.
UCF still has the single best defense in Conference USA, by a fairly wide margin. Looking at UCF’s aggregate stats for the year defensively, this team ranks right with Alabama, Michigan State and Penn State in both yards and points allowed! The Knights held SMU to a single touchdown in last year’s C-USA championship game. Both SU losses this year have come due to muffed punts, not defensive breakdowns.
June Jones offense lights up weaker defenses, but, even dating back to his tenure at Hawaii, Jones’ spread has not worked consistently against top notch stop units. Let’s not forget how poor SMU has been in this particular role: 1-10-1 ATS as home favorites in the four years that Jones has been here. The ‘revenge’ motif for this game gives us another pointspread value boost in a game that is every bit as meaningful and important to road dog as it is to the ‘revenging’ home favorite. Take UCF.
Steve Janus
Georgia Bulldogs -11
Georgia head coach Mark Richt has came out and said how the Bulldogs are going to commit more to the running game behind star freshman running back Isaiah Crowell. Vanderbilt has just got done going up against the great rushing attacks of South Carolina and Alabama, and it is going to be hard for them to get up for another physical game. Vanderbilt allowed 284 rushing yards in those two games. I actually think by committing to the run, it is going to open up Georgia's offense for more big plays in the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia has a very underrated defense. The Bulldogs haven't allowed more than 13 points in three straight games, and have held each of those teams to less than 56 yards on the ground. Vanderbilt's offense figures to make things even easier on the Georgia defense. The Commodores have the 116th ranked offense, averaging just 244.4 total yards a game.
Georgia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite, and 15-5 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. BET THE BULLDOGS!
Jeff Scott Sports
6 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
TEXAS A&M -9.5 over Baylor: Just my second 6 Unit Play on the year and I hope for better results than the first one. Yes I know how awesome RG3 has been this year, hitting 80% of his passes with a 19-1 TD to INT mark, but I feel he will not have great success today. The Aggies defense has had its problems this year on the road, but at home this year they have allowed just 339 ypg and 17 ppg. That 12th man really pays dividends at home and that defense is a HUGE edge that goes to Aggies. I know the Aggeis are 99th overall amd 107th vs the pass, but Baylor is not just a passing team as they are ranked 10th in the nation in rushing at 239 ypg, and that is one the the Aggies know how to stop as they allow just 77 ypg on the ground and a measly 2.3 ypc. Baylors defense checks in at 61st overall (374 ypg) and 76th in points allowed (28.2), but a closser look and we see that one of their games was a shutout win vs an FCS team, so their rankings vs FBS teams is 79th overall (415.8 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35.2 ppg). Now let's go even further. In Baylor's last 3 games they have played the 68th, 107th and 97th ranked offenses and they still allowed 399 ypg and 31 ppg. Today they take on the highest ranked offense they have faced so far. The Aggies offense has been great this year, putting up 493 ypg (12th) and 39 ppg (18th) and I just don't see the Baylor Bears being able to stop it. Two other BIG edges for the Aggies are Special Teams (one of the tops in the country) and their infamous 12th man. The last home game they had was a 1 point loss to OSU, so you know they've been looking foreward to coming home and playing well. RG3 is having a great year, but this day will belong to the Aggies as they win by 14+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST any team that has covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games if they have won 80%+ of their games and are playing a team with a win pct of 51% to 60%. This system has gone 27-6 the last 5 years.
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
South Florida -7.5 over CONNECTICUT: The Bulls were rolling right along until they ran into ma fired up Panthers squad last Thursday and were throttled 44-17. Now the Bulls have had 16 days to get ready for this one and they should be fully focused to get back on track. Uconn has not been that good in the early going as they are just 2-4 so far, with the 2 wins coming vs Fordham and Buffalo. Not all that impressive. Uconn won the Big East last year, but they still outgaind by 67 ypg vs SFB and this year is no different as they come in having been outgained 81 ypg vs FBS foes. The Huskie offense has been dismal, ranking 101st overall (331 ypg) and 88th in points scored at 23.3 ppg and even though they are decent on defense, they will not be able to a powerful Bulls offense down enough for their own offense to keep this one close. Two weeks ago this Bulls offense was stymied by Pitt, but they have had extra time to correct the mistakes and get this 10th rated offense back on track. The Bulls average 510 ppg and 39.8 ppg and will be just too much for this UConn defense to handle. The Bulls were embarrassed on National TV two weeks ago and they have been chomping at the bit to get back on the field and show that that was a fluke. I say they make their own statement here with a 17+ point win. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play ON any road team off a 21+ point blowout loss to a conference opponent if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. This system has gone 29-5 over the last 10 seasons.
4 UNIT PLAY
MISSOURI -15.5 over Iowa State: At the beginning of the year I pegged the Tigers as a team to watch, but they haven't played to their potential yet as they come in at 2-3 on the year. I still feel that this will be a team to watch down the stretch. Despite their 2-3 record the Tigers do have some very good numbers on both sides of the ball, Their offense comes in averaging 479 ypg and 32.2 pgg, while on defense they have allowed just 336 ypg and 21 ppg. Now on the other side we see a Cyclone team that is 3-2, but they do not have good numbers across the board, as their offense has put up 386 ypg (61st) and 25.6 ppg (81st), while their defense is 94th overall, allowing 419 ypg and 98th in points allowed at 33.2 ppg, plus we note that ISU has been outscored by 23 ppg in their 2 Big 12 games thus far. This is a home coming game for the Tigers and they are really looking to put a hurting on a team and today that team is Iowa State. I look for a 21+ point win by a Missouri team that needs to start playing well or they will be left out of the post season party.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MICHIGAN STATE -2 over Michigan: At the beginning of the year I had the Spartans winning their division and playing Wisconsin in the Big 10 Title and I will not deviate from that thought process as the Spartans take on Michigan this week. The Spartans have been dominant on both sides of the ball and they check in with the Nation's top rated defense, allowing just 173 ypg. Sparty is also 2nd vs the pass, allowing just (109.4 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (10.2 ppg). Granted I know the level of competition they played isn't the greatest, but they did hold the Irish to just 275 yards and look at what that offense has been doing lately. On the other side we have a Michigan defense that has also been playing well. The Wolverines come in ranked 30th in yards allowed (323 ypg) and 9th in points allowed (12.5 ppg), but like the Spartans, they haven't really played anyone yet. The big thing though is that Michigan allowed 513 yards to the Irish, while the Spartans allowed just 275. This Michigan State defense is for real and they should be able to contain Robinson like they did last year. Michigan does have the edge on offense and they have put up 38 ppg, but they also have been the recipient of turnovers and that has led to short fields and easy scores. Yes they beat the Irish, but ND did turn the ball over 5 times and last week vs the Cats a close game was broken open by two 2nd half Northwestern TO's. In this game Michigan won't get the same breaks as the Spartans just don't turn the ball over that much.
Toledo -7.5 over BOWLING GREEN: The Falcons looked good out the gate as they won their first 2 games crushing Idaho and Morgan State, but since then they have dropped 3 of 4 and in their last 2 games they were out scored by 45 and 24 points. The Falcons defense has been shredded for 610 ypg and 50 ppg over their last 2 games and now they face a hot Toledo offense that has put up 428 ypg and 40 ppg over their last 3 games. Overall Toledo is 42nd in total offense (427 ypg) and 26th in scoring (32.8 ppg) and will be facing a Falcon defense that is 78th overall (400 ypg) and 88th in points allowed (29.8 ppg). The Bowling Green offense is decent as they put up 412 ypg and 30.8 ppg, but the Toledo defense is beginning to come around as they have allowed just 29 points in their last 2 games. Toledo is the class of the MAC this year and they a5re starting to play that way, while the Falcons are headed in the other direction. Toledo wins this one easily. KEY TRENDS--- Toledo is 15-4 ATS at home off a win of 28 or more since 1992, while Bowling Green is 0-7 ATS after losing 2 out of their last 3 games the last 2 years.
2 UNIT PLAYS
RUTGERS -4 over Navy: Rutgers is 18-5 ATS since 1992, when the total is between 49.5 to 56, while Navy is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.25 ypp in their last game. The Knights have had a good year so far and last week they sent a message to the rest of the big East after beating Pitt by 24 as 6.5 home dogs. The Rutgers defense has been stout this year coming in at 18th overall and 11th in points allowed, plus we note that Schiano's defense has held the last 8 Option teams to just 269 total yards per game. Navy is not playing well right now and Rutgers will take advantage with another easy win here.
PITTSBURGH -7 over Utah: The Panthers took an embarrassing loss last week at the hands of the Knights, but I expect them to bounce back here. Pitt is 11-1 ATS following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Utah checks in at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss of 20+ points. Pittsburgh should bounce back strong vs a Utah team this is just not playing well this year.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Texas Over 64.5: OSU is 2nd in total offense and 103rd in total defense. Their games have averaged 79 ppg this year. The Texas offense has had their problems this at times, but they have still averaged 30.8 ppg. I see this game hitting 70 with ease.
Kansas State +3.5 over TEXAS TECH: 5-0 teams in game six that are not laying points have gone a very nice 36-13-1 ATS. The KSU defense has become stout once again and they have held each offense they have faced to their season low. They should come away with their 3rd straight upset here.
TEXAS SPORTS WIRE
OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS
6th-ranked Oklahoma State (5-0 SU/4-1 ATS) obliterated Kansas last week in a 70-28 home win as -31 point favorites. QB Brandon Weeden tossed four touchdowns in the first quarter as the sixth-ranked Cowboys dominated the Jayhawks. Weeden completed 24-of-28 passes for 288 yards and five touchdowns in less than two quarters before sitting out the rest of the game with matters well in hand. Hubert Anyiam and Justin Blackmon each caught two TDs for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a 600-478 edge in total yards and pulled their starters in the second quarter. Okie State led 56-7 at the half and won the turnover battle 4-0. Oklahoma State’s 70 points were the most they have scored in a game in the modern era (since 1915). They beat Southern Illinois 70-7 in 1973. Their 56 points in the first half also matched the most they had scored in the first half, also in that same Southern Illinois game. Texas (4-1 SU/3-2 ATS) was hammered last week in a 55-17 loss to Oklahoma as +11 point ‘dogs. David Ash and Case McCoy split time at quarterback, with neither faring too well. McCoy connected on 9-of-16 throws for 116 yards and Ash completed 11-of-20 passes for 107 yards with a touchdown, but the two were under constant pressure all day from a Sooner defense that registered eight sacks. The Longhorns turned it over five times overall, which resulted in 31 points for Oklahoma. Texas only had 259 yards of offense and the Longhorns’ offense had 17 plays that resulted in negative yardage. The Longhorns are playing with revenge this week after dropping a 33-16 decision to the Cowboys in Austin last year as +4 point home ‘dogs. Oklahoma State rolled up 308 yards in taking a 26-3 lead into halftime and finished with 532 yards to break a 12-year losing streak to Texas. Oklahoma State has been on a nice ATS roll (13-3) and the Cowboys are 21-5-2 ATS when favored between -3½ and -10 points. Okie State is also 44-17-2 ATS as a favorite and 18-7-1 ATS on the road. Conversely, Texas is on a dismal 6-14 ATS run and the Longhorns have underachieved in Austin, going a mere 5-15-1 ATS as a host.
SELECTION: OKLAHOMA STATE
Rocketman
Buffalovs. Temple
Play: Temple -21
Buffalo is 0-6 ATS last 3 years in a road game when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points. Buffalo is 3-11 ATS last 3 years after playing a conference game. Temple is 5-1 ATS in all games this year. Temple is 17-4 ATS last 3 years when playing on Saturday. Temple is 10-3 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Buffalo is scoring only 17 points per game on the road while allowing 34.7 points per game on the road this season. Temple is allowing only 11.2 points per game overall this year. Temple is the best team in the MAC this year in my opinion and they'll show why even more here today. We'll recommend a small play on Temple today!
Jack Jones
LSU -17
The Tennessee Volunteers stand no chance of keeping this game close against LSU Saturday. They are without two of their best players on offense, including quarterback Tyler Bray, who is out until mid-November with a broken thumb.
Bray had been spectacular before getting hurt last week in a 12-20 loss to Georgia. He was completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 1,579 yards with 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. One of Bray's favorite targets, sophomore wide receiver Justin Hunter, is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.
Tennessee's offense is not going to be able to move the ball on arguably the best defense in the country. The Tigers give up an average of 12.5 points - tied for eighth-best in the FBS - and rank fifth in total defense at 254.0 yards allowed per game. They held Florida to 213 in a 41-11 win over the Gators last Saturday.
LSU's offense has been getting great field position due to the play of their defense, and they've been capitalizing behind a power-running game. The Tigers are scoring 38.5 points and averaging 183 rushing yards/game.
Tennessee is just 2-16 ATS in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. The Vols are also 1-9 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992. The Vols are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is 4-0-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Bet LSU Saturday.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -3.5
Texas Tech is off their first loss last week vs Texas A@M. Tonight they take on an undefeated Kansas St team that comes in off 3 straight dog wins. That Scenario sets Them up in a negative system here tonight. The system and some solid angles give Texas Tech the edge here. The Red Raiders are 7-0 ats in the second of back to back home games and 12-1 with 11 covers as a home favorite from -3.5 to -7. Kansas St is 0-8 ats on the road off a win of less than 10 points and 1-5 ats on the road off a dog win. Kansas St has the edge on defense but Texas Tech has a big offensive edge in what figures to be a higher scoring game. Look for Texas Tech to move to 7-1 ats in the series between these two.
Hollywood Sports
Oklahoma at Kansas
Prediction: Kansas
Take Kansas plus all those points against an Oklahoma team playing their second game in a row on the road that is due for a letdown after producing three defensive touchdowns en route to their blowout 55-17 win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners (5-0) held the Longhorns to just 259 yards of offense -- but Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after holding their previous opponent to 275 yards or less. The last time these two teams played in 2009, Kansas lost by 22 points. The Jayhawks (2-3) do two things well that helps a big underdog cover the spread. First, Kansas' offense can put up their share of points as they rank 29th in the FBS by scoring 36.3 PPG. Second, the Jayhawks run the football well by generating 236 rushing YPG which is 11th best in the FBS. This ground game should burn time off the clock to limit the number of offensive plays the Sooners will have. Kansas may have been buried last week by a 70-28 score but that was at Oklahoma State and the Jayhawks score over 40 PPG when they are back in Lawrence. Take the points with Kansas.
Ray Monohan
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
The Detroit Tigers called on ace pitcher Justin Verlander to extend the season by winning game five of the ALCS, and Verlander delivered. The Tigers also got some much-needed run production from a batting order that had not delivered much in this series. The game was the win that the Tigers needed to stay in the ALCS, but it was not the dominating performance that Detroit was expecting from its pitching ace. The Tigers send Max Scherzer to the mound to try and atone for his performance in game two that ended in the sixth inning with a Nelson Cruz home run that eventually won the game for Texas. Derek Holland is also trying to atone for a bad performance in game two with a better performance in game six. In game two, Holland only lasted two and two-thirds innings but gave up three runs. The two pitchers with the two worst performances in this ALCS meet again in game six. The Rangers still have the offensive edge over Detroit and that will play a huge part in ending this series.
Charlie Scott
South Carolina vs. Mississippi St
Play: South Carolina -3
After Steve Spurrier threw a temper tantrum this week at his press conference, we should get a focused, motivated, South Carolina team that is loaded with talent ready to play Today. With QB Stephen Garcia recently dismissed from the team for what SC calls discipline problems, but the internet rumors say Garcia is being investigated for point shaving allegations. When the Arizona St Basketball team was being investigated by the Feds a couple of yrs ago for their role in point shaving, then Head Coach Bill Freider Told his team at half time, "If You Boys ain't doing anything wrong You better go out there and prove it & Win Big." Expect the same kind of speech from Spurrier this week ! The line of -3 looks pretty cheap considering the way QB Garcia was playing there's not much of a downside to QB Shaw, + SC has a very good running game with RB Lattimore and 1 of the best defense's in NCAAF.
SEAN MURPHY
Boise St. @ Colorado St.
PICK: Under 54
While Boise State is thought of as a high-flying offensive team, the fact is, the Broncos have posted a 7-10-1 o/u record dating back to the start of last season. That includes a 2-8-1 o/u mark over their last 11 contests.
Chris Petersen's team continues to play a suffocating brand of defense, allowing just under 15 points per game on 293 total yards per game this season. Is there any reason to believe Colorado State is poised for a breakthrough against this group? I don't think so.
The Rams are averaging over 25 points per game on 340 total yards per contest, but those numbers are slightly skewed by a double overtime game against Utah State. This is a fairly pedestrian offense that averages just 3.6 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass play. Remember, they were held to 14 points against both New Mexico and Colorado earlier this season.
I do expect the Rams to man up on defense in this spot. They haven't been awful on that side of the football, holding the opposition to 4.4 ypr and 6.3 ypp. It's worth noting that they've had an extra week to prepare for the Broncos after sitting idle last Saturday.
I'll also point out that the 'under' is 5-1-1 in Colorado State's last seven games as a double-digit home underdog.
Boise State hasn't appeared quite as concerned with impressing the BCS committee this season, regularly pulling its starters in the fourth quarter. Note that they've scored only 34 fourth quarter points in five games this season. No surprise if this turns into a blowout, and no surprise if the final score falls well beneath the posted total. Take the under (5*).
Dennis Macklin
South Carolina vs. Mississippi St
Play: South Carolina -3
The South Carolina Gamecocks are a pretty good team without Garcia and may be that much better with this punk in the rearview mirror. Connor Shaw (26-39, 311, 4 TDs LW vs Kent) is more than adequate and will have the benefit of the entire week working with the first team. The Bulldogs will also likely go with a QB change with superior throwing Tyler Russel taking over for Chris Relf. Mississippi State’s OL is real banged up and that doesn’t bode well against a defense that leads the SEC in sacks with 14 and takeaways with 22. We haven’t even mentioned USC’s stud back Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina still has bigger fish to fry and can still win the SEC. Mississippi State has yet to take the next step from a second tier SEC outfit. South Carolina 38-24.
SPORTS WAGERS
MICHIGAN STATE –2½ +100 over Michigan
12:00 PM EST. Between Michigan State's last national championship in 1966 and Rich Rodriguez' 2007 arrival in Ann Arbor, the Spartans won more games in a season than Michigan just once and defeated the Wolverines fewer than one time in every four meetings. Now the Spartans are riding a three-game winning streak against their rivals and are equipped to make it four in a row with a capable offense and the nation's leading total defense. Brady Hoke has reunited the Michigan fan base and assembled an excellent coaching staff. His regime will probably see Michigan reclaim the upper hand in this series, but despite an undefeated start and lofty ranking, the Wolverines can't count on breaking the losing streak to MSU in year one of the Hoke era. Coordinator Greg Mattison will have a top-five defense in Ann Arbor within four years, but while this year's crew is 180 degrees improved from last year's sad-sack unit, it's merely a decent group, still suffering from the recruiting deficiencies of the Rodriguez/Greg Robinson era. Michigan can certainly score, but the offense is just six games into the marriage of Denard Robinson with an all-new brain trust. Michigan is on its way, but a win in East Lansing and division title is a lot to ask from Hoke's very first squad. Play: #152 Michigan State –3 (Risking 2 units).
ILLINOIS –3½ +104 over Ohio St.
3:30 PM EST. You can lay –3 -115 cents at most joints but we’re going to play this at Pinnacle and lay -3½ and take back a little juice. Illinois is on the rise after a post-2009 staff shakeup that brought coordinators Paul Petrino and Vic Koenning to Champaign. QB Nathan Scheelhaase leads an Illini attack that's rolling up 35 points per game. A punishing ground game, an ace go-to wideout, a dominant defensive line and a shutdown corner are the other key ingredients for an undefeated Illini squad that's not top-to-bottom good enough to win the league but looks ready to make a statement that it's a contender for double-digit wins. Ohio State has moved smoothly from an offseason of scandal and disgrace into a season of ineptitude, injuries and suspensions. The latest chapter was an epic second-half collapse -- triggered by an injury to budding star quarterback Braxton Miller -- against a Nebraska team that did its best to give the game away for three quarters. Beleaguered coach Luke Fickell and his Buckeyes deserve credit for circling the wagons heading into Lincoln last week. But after the results unfolded as they did, it's unrealistic to be able to expect them to do it again. About the only disaster that hasn't befallen the Buckeyes yet is a real blowout loss. That's coming soon, quite possibly this week. Play: #154 Illinois –3½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona St +15 over OREGON
10:15 PM EST. The Ducks are an offensive force, scoring 40 points or more in every game thus far. Prior to last week’s 43-15 win over California, Oregon racked up 69, 56 and 56 points respectively. That was against Nevada, Missouri St and Arizona. OU RB LaMichael James led the charge as usual with 239 yards and a score on 30 carries. However, he suffered an injury and will not suit up for this one. QB Darron Thomas is now forced to live without James and with backup RB’s and that’s something he’s not used to. James was and is the focal point of the Ducks offense, period. When a team racks up points at will like the Ducks have, the number comes in higher than it should be and that’s precisely the situation here. The Sun Devils can play. They, too, have an explosive offense that has scored 35 or more in five of its six games. They surely can keep pace in a shootout. Only once has the ASU defense allowed more than 22 points and that came against Missouri in OT. Oregon is probably the better team even wihtout LaMichael James, and the Ducks usually don’t slip in Autzen Stadium, where they've won 19 straight. But the Devils are also explosive in all three phases, and 15 points is too much weight for Dennis Erickson's best Arizona State team yet. Play: #143 Arizona St +14 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
TEXAS A&M –8 +100 over Baylor
12:00 PM EST. The Aggies were projected to do great things this year but have grossly underachieved with a 3-2 record. A&M’s three wins have come against SMU, Idaho and they just got by Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has cost a lot of people money all year and now everyone is jumping off them as a big favorite over a Baylor club that can rack up points like crazy. Now we get a chance to “buy low” on the Aggies and we’re stepping in. Baylor's defense is horrible and isn't about to shut down anyone anytime soon. They gave up 31 points to Rice, 36 to K-State, and 26 to a pedestrian Iowa State offense last week. The last two games these two played at Kyle Field, the Aggies pasted this squad by scores of 38-3 and 34-10 and there’s no reason to believe this one will be any different. Again, the Aggies are so much better than the Bears but this underachieving club has stumbled. They'll put it all together against a team they have a ton of confidence against. Play: #146 Texas A&M –8 +100 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
NY ISLANDERS +111 over N.Y Rangers
The Rangers are coming back from an opening season two-game trip to Europe. The Rangers scored three goals in the two games, they produced a combined 41 shots on net and they’ve been off for a week. The fact that they’re winless and favored here is a little bit out of whack. The Islanders are 2-1 and they’re coming off a confidence building 5-1 over the Lightning in a game they dominated in the first two periods. The Islanders are an undervalued squad and although he didn’t produce a point last game, Mark Streit had his best game of the year after sitting out all of last year. The Islanders are loaded up front with a whole slew of scorers while the Rangers look to be offensively challenged again. We get a tag on an Islanders club at home that has played three games and has looked better with each passing game against a Ranger club looking for its first win after an energy draining trip overseas. Sweet. Play: N.Y. Islanders +111 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +125 over MONTREAL
The Canadiens probably deserved a better fate against the Flames in their last game, a 4-1 loss but so what. They have key injuries already to Mike Cammalleri, Jaroslav Spacek and Chris Campoli and they don’t have the depth to make up for it. In the Habs two losses to Toronto and Calgary they scored one goal. Meanwhile, the Av’s are completely amped up to get back on the ice after three straight wins. Colorado is coming off a 7-1 thumping over the Sens after beating Columbus and the Bruins, all on the road. The Av’s are brimming with confidence. They’re creating a lot of chances and they’re getting great goaltending from Semyon Varlamov. The Av’s roll out three strong lines and the third line of rookie sensation Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly and Daniel Winnik just might be playing the best of the three right now. That’s scary. Montreal rolls out nothing close to that and its defense isn’t very good either. Carey Price is going to have to win this one on his own because it’s very unlikely that Montreal outplays the Av’s. Definite overlay. Play: Colorado +125 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA +106 over Tampa Bay
The Panthers are considered a bottom feeder. The Lightning are considered to be contenders after an outstanding season a year ago and those two things combined has created an early season misperception. The Panthers are much better than they’re getting credit for. In fact, this is probably the best team the Panthers have iced in years. They made some strong off-season moves to add to an already decent core of players. Stephen Weiss, Thomas Fleischmann, David Booth, Kris Versteeg, Scotty Upshall, Marcel Goc, Sean Bergenheim, Tomas Kopecky and even Matt Bradley are all quality NHL forwards and that’s not even the Panthers strength. They added Ed Jovanovski and Brian Campbell to a defense that already has one of the most exciting young defenseman in the league in Dmitry Kulikov. The Panthers are playoff contenders. Meanwhile, the Bolts look lost out there. Their defense is horrendous and their goaltending is worse. The Bolts are not creating much offense either. They opened the year with a 5-1 win over the Canes but have dropped three straight since and have allowed 15 goals in the process while scoring just once in two of three games. Tampa is in big trouble, especially in its own end. Wrong side favored. Play: Florida +106 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +160 over SAN JOSE
The Blues 1-2 record is the most misleading in the NHL at this early stage but what it does is gives us an opportunity to take back a sweet tag on them. St. Louis is 1-2 but they’ve absolutely dominated play in all three games and if Jaroslav Halak were just a little sharper they would be 3-0. The Blue Notes outshot Dallas 38-24 in their last game but lost 3-2. In their 5-2 win over Calgary the whole game was played in the Flames’ end and St. Louis outshot them 35-17. In the Blue Notes opening night lost in Nashville, they outshot the Preds 33-16 and once again dominated from start to finish. Now they go into San Jose to face a Sharks team that lost 1-0 to the Ducks last night. Remember, Anaheim was one of four teams that returned from Europe. The Sharks ran into a hot Jonas Hiller last night and surely they can win this one. However, in terms of value, the Blue Notes offer up plenty of it here and surely, they, too, can win this game. Halak has to be better. Play: St. Louis +160 (Risking 2 units).
Columbus +147 over DALLAS
What a great chance for the Jackets to get off the mattress and into the “W” column. Columbus is winless in four games but they have not been outplayed in any of them. With a couple of breaks they could easily be undefeated instead of winless, as they’ve lost three of their four games by a single goal and had third period leads on both Colorado and Vancouver. Now they take to the road and that will absolutely relieve a little pressure from being winless and playing at home. Dallas is 2-1 and that also is one of the more misleading records in the league. Had it not been for Kari Lehtonen standing on his head in the two wins the Stars would be 0-3. In all three games against Chicago (a 5-2 loss), Phoenix and St. Louis, Dallas was the second best team on the ice by and it wasn’t even close. The Blue Jackets will come in here and play their hearts out for 60 minutes and frankly, we’re getting the team that is playing better, the better team and we’re taking back a rather ridiculous price. This might be the biggest overlay on the board today. Play: Columbus +147 (Risking 2 units).
Bob Balfe
Purdue +12 over Penn State
Penn State is not a good offensive team so its tough for them as double digit favorites and even more so without their top wide receiver Derek Moye. Both teams should run the ball a lot and the edge in addition to the passing game goes to Purdue. The Penn State Linebackers are inexperienced and I look for Purdue to exploit them. I could see the Boilermakers winning this game outright at +340. Look for Purdue to cover this generous number. Take Purdue.