Jimmy Moore
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest +7
The Deamon Deacons are getting no respect but they have won 4 in a row this year after losing their opener in OT and their latest win was last week at home against Florida State. V Tech has not covered a game yet this season and now they are being asked to lay a TD to a very good Wake team. Take the points.
O.C. Dooley
Oklahoma / Kansas Under 73
It is easy to see why this total is so high since host Kansas statistically has the worst defense in the entire country. In the past three weeks the Jayhawks have allowed a stunning 60 combined points, but one has to consider it was against three of the country’s highest rated offensive attacks (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech). This is not to say that the top-ranked Sooners cannot light up the scoreboard but I have found out that head coach Bob Stoops is preaching DEFENSIVE intensity for this particular contest. The biggest game on the college schedule one week ago was the Red River Rivalry where the Sooners torched Texas by a 55-17 count at the legendary Cotton Bowl. Despite the easy blowout triumph Oklahoma’s head coach placed heavy emphasis on what he described as breakdowns in pass coverage and overall communication among the defensive personnel. Another troubling area that has received attention in practice is special-teams as Oklahoma has shockingly allowed an opponent to return a kickoff for touchdown FIVE times in the past 13 games which is the most of any school operating at the Division I-A level. Despite tonight’s lofty over/under figure odds are strong that Kansas will have problems finding the endzone as this is the same school that under first-year head coach Turner Gill a year ago ranked a disastrous #113 nationally in offensive production. So far in 2011 the Jayhawks have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot by already committing 12 different turnovers. Turning to the database here is a 71-PERCENT SYSTEM (50-20 past decade) that plays teams like Kansas after allowing 42+ points in consecutive games UNDER the total, against an opponent whose offense is coming off a 37+-point performance. This season totals involving Oklahoma have either been in the mid-50’s or low-60’s. Tonight’s 73-point spot is rather high considering the Sooners defense has allowed “17 or less” points four different times already
Black Widow
1* on Miami (Ohio) -3.5
Kent State is one of the worst teams in college football. The Golden Flashes are just 1-5 this season, with their only win coming against South Alabama. They barely won that game, winning 33-25. Kent State is scoring just 12.0 points/game and averaging 174 total yards/game. There's no question that they have the worst offense in the FBS. Miami (Ohio) is much better than their 1-4 record right now. Remember, the Redhawks won the MAC Championship last season and they have a whopping 17 starters back from that squad. Miami (Ohio) has been dealt a tough schedule that has included Missouri and Cincinnati, and the Redhawks showed well against the Tigers in a 6-17 road loss. They beat Army 35-28 last week behind 503 total yards to get their first win of the season, and we look for them to carry that momentum into this game. Kent State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The Golden Flashes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. Take Miami (Ohio) and lay the points.
John Ryan
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +33
7* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Boise State set to start at 6:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by 30 or fewer points. Boise certainly has a prolific offense and every season seems to be an ongoing debate of just how good the team is when compared to the elite programs in the program. One fact, I can tell you is that CSU has done very well in this role posting an 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing offensive teams scoring 34 or more points per game since 1992. Moreover, when dressed as home dog they have great investments posting a 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) since 1992; 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games after having lost two out of their last three games since 1992. Rams sophomore quarterback Pete Thomas is coming off one of the best performances of his career completing 28 of 43 passes against the San Jose State for a career-best 387 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Now, San jose State is not Boise, but the Spartans did make things very difficult for a strong Hawaii offense in their 28-27 upset win just last night. Boise going through a stretch of inferior foes and will have to work a bit harder than expected in this game allowing the Rams to cover this huge number. Take Colorado State.
Michael Alexander
Colorado vs. Washington
Play: Washington -15½
COLORADO is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
COLORADO is 7-24 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog
COLORADO is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fairway Jay
Kansas State at Texas Tech
Play: Kansas State +3.5
One of the biggest bankroll boosters in the nation is Kansas State as the Wildcats continue to fly under the radar led with legendary head coach Bill Snyder now in his second stint in Manhattan. Kansas State has won three straight games as underdog against solid foes Missouri, Baylor, and Miami (FL). Now on a 4-0 SU/ATS run, they should have the best of it again at the point of attack against Texas Tech. Kansas State runs for over 200 ypg at 4.2 ypr and their defense is by far the best Tech has faced, allowing just 17 ppg and less than 300 ypg. Texas Tech is averaging a whopping 46 ppg and over 520 ypg, but note the patsies on the schedule with Texas State, New Mexico, Nevada and Kansas. Tech lost on this field last week to their only quality opponent despite outgaining Texas A&M 523-393. Tech ran an incredible 105 plays in that game but averaged just 5.0 yards per play. The Red Raiders defense is lacking again allowing 224 rushing ypg at 4.9 ypr. The fundamental advantage at the point of attack favoring Kansas State points to a solid shot to cash ATS. With Snyder 11-5 ATS as an underdog, we’ll fire way with the Wildcats again this week.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +110 over EDMONTON
While everyone has been destroying the Riders lately, the Eskies squeaked by them last week by a score of 17-1 after Saskatchewan turned the ball over five times. Now the Bombers will come in here with a healthy squad and undoubtedly the best defense in the CFL. Edmonton’s passing game is weak and in this league against a good team, if you can’t throw, you cannot win. Winnipeg got off to a huge start this year and came back down to earth a few weeks later but Swaggerville appears to have its swagger back. The Bombers are 5-2 on the road and after playing Hamilton and Montreal twice in three of the past four weeks, they take a step down in class when facing these Eskimos. Edmonton doesn’t have an edge offensively, they’re nowhere near this intruder’s talent on the defensive side of the ball and frankly, this one shouldn’t even be close. Outside of the Riders, no other team has looked worse than the Eskies over the past six weeks. Play: Winnipeg (Risking 3 units).
David Banks
Florida / Auburn Over
East meets West in the SEC Saturday night when the Florida Gators (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS) invade Jordan-Hare Stadium to collide with the Auburn Tigers (4-2, 2-4 ATS); kick-off for this high profile conference clash is set for 7:00 ET on ESPN and ESPN3.com.
The first season of the Will Muschamp era in Gainesville got off to a chomping start for the Gators who rolled their way to a perfect 4-0 start both SU & ATS. With divisional wins already piled up against Tennessee and Kentucky, the Gators looked well on their way towards representing the East in the SEC Championship Game; that was until the wheels completely fell off. Florida found out in a rather harsh way that the competition in the East was a heck of a lot easier to contend with than that in the West evidenced by the fact that UF was trounced by the aggregate score of 79-21 the last two weeks versus Alabama and LSU. It also didn’t help that QB John Brantley went down with an ankle injury early against the Crimson Tide. But even with him healthy, UF was still overmatched on the field. Still, a win tonight would set things up nicely for the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” battle with the Georgia Bulldogs in a couple weeks.
The defending national champions return home from a pounding at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks that saw them fall 38-14 as 10-point Fayetteville underdogs. Coach Gene Chizik’s squad has handled its lesser opposition to date, but didn’t have the offensive firepower nor defense to contend with the big guns in their two losses. That said; the Tigers carry an 11-game home winning streak heading into this contest and certainly won’t take kindly to the fact that they’re dogged. Auburn will look to weaken the Gators stiff defense with its potent ground attack duo of Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb who’ve combined to rush for just under 1000 overall yards. Defensive Coordinator Ted Roof will have his hands full devising a plan to stuff the Gators 32nd ranked rushing attack with his kids allowing a healthy 201.8 yards per game on the ground.
It’s been quite some time since these SEC rivals last met on the gridiron. Auburn toppled the Gators 20-17 as lofty 17-point underdogs in “The Swamp” when these teams last met in 2007; the Tigers have won three of the L/4 overall meetings dating back to 2001 and covered the closing pointspread in each of those contests. Florida covered in its lone road chalk role this season at Kentucky and enters Saturday night’s tussle an impressive 14-3 ATS the L/17 times it was favored away from Gainesville and 15-6 ATS its L/21 road battles. Auburn counters with a perfect 5-0 ATS tally the L/5 times it was dogged at home, but stands 2-9 ATS the L/11 times it played following a straight up defeat.
WEST CAPPER
TIGERS @ RANGERS
Tonight’s game is a rematch from game two in Arlington, in which we had 3 on the Rangers. Derek Holland never really found his command, as he fell behind early but Texas rallied to an extra inning 7-3 win. Texas should be looking at today’s game like an elimination game, because if they allow this series to go seven games, they will face a large disadvantage with Doug Fister on the mound. The righty has been the best pitcher in the AL down the stretch, so the Rangers need to win today and avoid him at all costs if they want to advance to the WS.
Holland goes for the Rangers, looking to control his nerves and get ahead of hitters. The lefty threw incredibly well his last five starts, but has struggled with command in the postseason. He lasted only 2.2 IP in game two and walked four, but this is a guy who was 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in September. His home numbers (8-2, 4.69 ERA at home vs a 8-3, 3.39 ERA on the road) are worse than his road numbers, but that is typical of most Rangers pitchers, as the Ballpark at Arlington is very hitter friendly. The Tigers didn’t face Holland in the regular season, so the brief history the Tigers hitters have is from game two, when Holland wasn’t really Holland. Delmon Young (6-for-12, 2 HR) is heating up and hits Holland really well. Over his last nine starts of the regular season, Holland struck out over a batter an inning, yet in the postseason he only has two strikeouts in nine IP this postseason while walking six.
Justin Verlander saved the Rangers season and bullpen in game five, so they should have the services of Benoit and Valverde to back up starter Max Scherzer. Scherzer has some of the best stuff in the game, but really struggled on the road this season, posting a 5.23 ERA. All of his postseason starts this year have come on the road, and he threw well in game two in Arlington. Elvis Andrus (2-for-15) and the banged up Josh Hamilton (2-for-12) have really struggled against Scherzer, while Beltre and Kinsler have respectable numbers against the righty.
The major difference in game five as opposed to game two is the Tigers offense. Demon Young was banged up in game two, but he finally looked healthy last game and their offense is playing with confidence. So while this was a 3 (it was a 4**** if Delmon Young sat out), today’s game will be smaller. The Rangers better hope to wrap this series up tonight, because if they don’t, I think they are in a lot of trouble tomorrow.
I think Holland calms his nerves a little knowing this isn’t a “win-or-go-home” situation for the Rangers. The lefty has premium stuff, and as long as he can get ahead of hitters I think the Rangers advance. Scherzer has pitched well this post season, but the Rangers hitters are much more familiar with Scherzer than the Tigers are with Holland. Both bullpens are fully rested, so you should give the advantage to the Rangers. Texas will close this series out and wrap up a trip to the World Series tonight. Take the Rangers (-145) for 2** units and the over 9 runs for 1* unit.