Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 16,2010

Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Mexico St. at Fresno St.
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Fresno State's defense was exposed last week by a Hawaii team that put up 35 points on them in the second half on the way to their 49-27 win. The Bulldogs will not face that kind of firepower against an Aggies' offense that threw the ball only twelve times for 38 yards in their 16-14 win over New Mexico last week. While that win for New Mexico State may have proved that they are not the absolute worst team in the FBS, they are not far away from that status. Their offense ranks 117 in both scoring (12.6 PPG) and yardage (262.6). Unfortunately, their defense is almost as ineffective as they are allowing 39.6 PPG (114th in the FBS) and 488.2 total YPG (118th in the FBS). Fresno State has an explosive offense that scores 34.4 PPG along with 383.2 total YPG. The Bulldogs will have a bad taste in their mouth after their second half collapse last week and will take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico State. Lay the points.

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland vs. ClemsonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Clemson -15.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sometime, I just have to ignore some trends. Terps have dominated the ATS trends going 5-0 in Clemson and 8-2 ATS last 10 overall. So why is it that we have the Tigers here laying more than 2 TDs and on a 3 game losing streak. The 2-3 Tigers lost outright on the road last year to these guys as 12.5 point faves. Clemson HC Dabo Sweeney will have this team chewing nails and spitting fire by high-noon Saturday. Looking at the Terps, I see a joke. Really. Now, we cashed with them at home as dogs vs Navy. But their 2 previous wins over Duke and Florida International shouldn't make a Maryland backer warm and fuzzy inside. In their only road game, they got blasted by West Va (who we had) 31-10. How do you get outgained by over 700 yards on the year and be 4-1 SU. That is some sun is shining on your ass stuff right there. So we have Clemson, in a desperate, must-win double revenge roll. Against a team that has clearly got some breaks to start the year.

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. NavyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: SMU +1.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mustangs are looking like a contender to win Conference USA under the leadership of head coach June Jones. Their offense is more balanced this season with quarterback Kyle Padron already having thrown for 1,564 yards, with 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Plus he is coming off of back to back 300 yard passing games. While their running game is showing signs of life with Zach Line leading the conference in rushing. Add in the fact that SMU played toe to toe with both TCU and Texas Tech this year, and held the powerful Tulsa offense to just 18 points last week makes me feel they are the superior team taking the field here today. Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Midshipmen are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Tom StrykerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulane vs. TulsaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Tulsa -18.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Since posting a 34-27 home win over SMU back on September 25th, 2008, Tulane has hit the skids running up a less than impressive 5-20 SU and 7-15-1 ATS record in its last 25 games. Things won’t get any easier for the Green Wave on Saturday night. Tulsa returns home off a hard-fought three-point loss at SMU and the Golden Hurricane will be all about getting back on the winning track.
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Knocking off Tulane hasn’t been a problem for Tulsa. In fact, in the last five meetings, the Golden Hurricane are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in this series and have won by margins of 24, 35, 24, 49 and 24 points respectively. That’s an average beating of 31.2 points per game!
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Statistically speaking, this is a terrible matchup for the low-octane Green Wave offense. Tulane is having all kinds of trouble moving the football. The Green Wave average only 288 total yards per game and are picking up a dismal 2.8 yards per rush and 6.1 yards per pass. There is no way this Tulane offense will be able to trade scores with a high-octane Tulsa unit that has posted an average of 36.2 points and 484 total yards per game!
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With the history in this series being one-sided, some believe that the Golden Hurricane may overlook the Green Wave. That’s not going to happen. Back on October 2nd, Tulane (+17) strolled right into Rutgers and upset the Scarlet Knights 17-14. That victory caught the attention of many especially Tulsa head coach Todd Graham. Rest assured, Coach Graham understand the importance of this conference game and he will keep his troops focused and ready.
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Tulane is ranked 23rd against the pass and the Green Wave have played well defensively. However, it’s Homecoming inside H.A. Chapman Stadium and Tulsa has been known to raise its level of play in its own backyard. The fact that the Golden Hurricane has a bye next week before making the trek to South Bend will only help keep them focused on Tulane. Lay the lumber here men. Take Tulsa!

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nevada vs. Hawaii
Play: Over 74FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Defense is nearly non existent for these teams. Even better the offenses can score on nearly every possession. NEV is averaging 43 and HAW 39 pts per game. HAW is 4-1 on overs as well this season. This one has shootout all over it as NEV and HAW can score very quickly. Special teams is a bonus here as both have above average return games.

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU @ TCUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TCU -29FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Frogs are ranked #4 in the Country and have cemented their status as one of the elite defensive teams with back-to-back shutouts of Colorado State two weeks ago, and Wyoming last week. They held the Rams to just 161 yards of offense, and the Cowboys to 191 yards, and it was the first time they recorded back-to-back shutouts since 1955, when they had three in a row. Not surprisingly, TCU is the #1-ranked defense currently in the country with an average of 230 yards given up, and TCU is 2nd in scoring defense at 10.2 ppg. I like TCU to continue its roll here vs. BYU, as the Horned Frogs fall into a super system of mine that is 63-33 ATS since 1984. What we want to do is play on any home team, priced from -2 to -33 points that's off a home shutout win, in which it scored 40+ points. This system had one play earlier this year and it was a nice winner on Iowa, which blew out Penn State 24-3 after it shutout Ball State 45-0 the previous week. Now, obviously, there's nothing wrong with 63-33, but we can improve our record to 42-14, 75% ATS, if we eliminate all opponents which won their previous game by 4 or more points. TCU would fall under that 42-14 tightener. Lay the points with Andy Dalton & Co.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise St. @ San Jose St.
PICK: Boise St. -40.5
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I'm not in the habit of laying 40 plus points in a game. But I'll make an exception in the San Jose State-Boise State matchup.
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If this isn't a case of the best meeting the worst it's darn close. The third-ranked Broncos are the only team in the nation to be ranked in the top-five both on offense and defense.
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Boise State has motivation to bury teams in order to impress the pollsters. The Broncos' goal is to play in the championship game. They need to go undefeated and post huge victory margins to have a shot at that goal.
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San Jose is a perfect patsy for them. The Spartans playing at home, where they've failed to cover the past six times, is actually a disadvantage because the Broncos have a shorter road squad dressing fewer players. That means more time for the first and second string.
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The Spartans are averaging 10.3 points per game, which ranks last in the nation. They've played an absolutely brutal schedule losing by an average of 33.3 points to Alabama, Wisconsin, Utah and Nevada. It's taken a toll - physically and mentally.
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The Broncos have covered 13 of their last 16 road contests. They are 7-1 ATS as road chalk of 21 or more points. Their offense is in top gear averaging 51 points in their last four games.
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As far as high point spreads, no problem. In the last two weeks, Boise State covered a 43 1/2-point road spread against New Mexico State and a 38-point spread against Toledo.
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Boise State hosts Louisiana Tech in its next game, so there's no look-ahead.
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Note that David is 70-49-5 on his college football selections during the past two years and has three big plays going Saturday. David also is on a 12-3 baseball run heading into the two championship series.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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California @ USCFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PICK: Over 53FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal shutdown the UCLA attack on Saturday, but I'm not sold on Norm Chow's Bruin offense, anyway. So while I respect what the Golden Bears did, I believe the Bears will have a much tougher time slowing down USC's offense this week. After all, although the Trojans have lost two of their six games, the offense has looked like a well-oiled machine more often than not. USC has scored at least 31 points in five of their six games, averaging 35.7 ppg. But the Trojans' defense has plenty of holes and should be exploited again. USC has been lit-up for 32 points or more on three occasions, half their games. They're allowing an un-Trojan-like, 26 ppg on the season, a number that would likely be higher if not for the mediocre offenses of Virginia, Minnesota, and Washington State. They're a young defense without much quality depth from an experience standpoint. While the Under has been the way to go in this series, I believe the total has been set too low, despite the fact it was set higher than in recent meetings. This is obviously not the same USC defense we saw under Pete Carroll. Over tickets are on a 10-1 run when USC hosts a team with a winning road record and I believe that stat will be 11-1 after this one. I'm playing the Over between Cal and USC on Saturday.

Dennis MacklinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tulane Green Wave vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Play: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes -18½
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Don't normally like to lay this type of number on the road but today's Tulsa/Tulane matchup looks like a case of CUSA status quo. In fact the Golden Hurricanes have pummeled the Waves five straight meetings by an average of 31 point-per-game. Tulane simply cannot move the ball and average less than 300 yards total offense per game. Tulsa not as explosive as recent Canes editions but 300 yards simply will not cut it against an offense that has averaged 36.2 ppg and 439 ypg versus better. In the last visit by Tulane, Tulsa rolled 56-7 .... today we'll call it 45-7.

Brad DiamondFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Have great respect for HC Gary Pinkel (145-83-3) and his 5-0 Tigers. However, this is difficult situation for Mizzou going on the road in their true road test of the season. The most difficult game this season for the Tigers came in week #1 when they defeated Illinois on a neutral site in St. Louis 23-13. Now they must face the Aggies in College Station one of the more difficult venues in all of College Football. A&M enter this campaign off 6¬-7 season, but with 16 former starters. The Aggies show Saturday, though, only 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) off back-to-back SU road losses to Oklahoma State & Arkansas. In the Arkansas game, the Aggies gave away 4 turnovers and managed only 112 yards on the ground. But remember, that was an SEC defense (Arkansas) that did the dirty work. If A&M is to win this game, they will need ball position, insuring their running attack controls the tempo. The home club has won 3 straight in this series, while Mizzou will be play their initial game on natural grass. A&M is 9-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses, while Colorado is 0-3 ATS after Colorado. One injury note, QB Gabbert is expected to start for Mizzou.

Joel Tyson

Miami-Florida (-19') at DUKE

I fully expect the Miami-Florida Hurricanes to take out a little of their frustration from last week's humiliation at home against Florida State on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham in the early afternoon.

Duke is coming off a bye-week, but that should hardly matter, as the 'Canes stop-unit will find the going a bit easier against this limited Duke offense.

The visitor is on a 3-0 spread run in this series, and Miami has also covered their last 3 when installed as the road favorite their last 3 tries overall.

The Blue Devils have been a money-burner when hosting FBS opponents, going just 1-6-1 against the line their last 8 tries.

Miami takes out last week's loss on Duke in this one.

Lay it with the Hurricanes.

5♦ MIAMI-FLORIDA

Chuck O'Brien

Texas (+10) at NEBRASKA

I've hit both of my complimenatry releases this week on the Giants-Braves UNDER from Monday and Kansas State in a rout last night. Let's make it three in a row with a look-ahead to Saturday’s college football action, and I’ll take the points with Texas at Nebraska.

Strictly a value play here, as you’ve got 5-0 Nebraska coming off a 35-point conference road win at Kansas State while Texas is coming off back-to-back losses to UCLA and Oklahoma. If this game had been played three weeks ago, Nebraska would be a 3 or 3½-point favorite at most – in fact, back in June you could’ve gotten the Cornhuskers at -2½. Now they’re laying 10 points.

That’s a huge overreaction by the oddsmakers and public, as both groups have become infatuated with Nebraska freshman QB Taylor Martinez, and rightfully so. The kid has already rushed for 737 yards and 12 TDs, and he’s averaging 10.8 yards per rushing attempt, and on top of that he’s completing better than 60 percent of his passes for 10.3 yards per pass attempt and three TDs (vs. three INTs). However, as great as Martinez has been, look at the competition: Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, South Dakota State and Kansas State.

Not one of those teams plays a lick of defense … but Texas does. The Longhorns are holding opponents to just 254 yards per game (Nebraska’s stout D gives up 275 ypg), including only 104 rushing ypg and 2.6 yards per carry (Nebraska gives up 147 rushing ypg and 3.7 ypc). In the 28-20 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago, Texas allowed the Sooners to rush for 124 yards but on 52 carries!

Texas will stay in this game and keep it close because of that defense, and since coach Mack Brown knows he can’t afford ANY turnovers on offense, he’s going to take the ball out of the hands of erratic QB Gale Gilbert (4 TDs and 5 INTs) run it all day long (which will shorten the contest). And keep in mind that Brown has had two weeks to prepare (the Longhorns had a bye last weekend).

True, this is a HUGE revenge game for Nebraska, which believes it got screwed out of a win over Texas in last year’s Big 12 championship game (after time seemingly expired, officials put one second on the clock and allowed the Longhorns to kick a field goal to steal a 13-12 win). That said, Texas is still 8-1 in the last nine meetings, with the underdog going 6-2-1 ATS. Also, the Longhorns (6-2 ATS last eight as a ‘dog) haven’t lost three in a row since the 2000 season, while the Huskers have failed to cash in six straight games as a home favorite.

3♦ TEXAS

Scott Delaney

Ohio State (-4) at WISCONSIN

The House of Pain that is Camp Randall is one of the most feared places to play in college football. Unfortunately for the host Badgers, the top-ranked Buckeyes, who are in town this week for their annual Big 10 date, aren't scared one bit.

Granted, the last three matchups between these two teams have been battles, and I suppose this one figures to be no different; however, this is a Wisconsin team has shown too much vulnerability over the course of the first half of the season, and it doesn't seem to matter where the Badgers are playing.

I really don't believe Wisconsin is poised enough to pull off the upset as quarterback Scott Tolzien is prone costly mistakes, the same kind that doomed the Badgers last season when he threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. The Badgers have gone four games without a turnover, but they haven't faced a defense like the Buckeyes, currently ranked third in the nation.

You might see top-ranked Ohio State play a bit conservatively to start, but with quarterback Terrelle Pryor improving as a passer and coming off a career-high 334-yard performance last week, I suspect Ohio State will throw the ball much more, forcing the Badgers to expand their defense by stretching the field.

I also believe the Buckeyes' defense will make the game-changing turnover in the second half, swaying the momentum in their favor, and essentially putting the nail in the coffin.

The Buckeyes are on a 21-6 ATS charge on the road, while they're on a 10-3-1 spread streak as the road chalk. On the flipside, Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS versus 1-A foes this season and is mired in a 0-3 spread slide against Ohio State.

2♦ OHIO STATE

Chris Jordan

Air Force at SAN DIEGO STATE (+1)

Only one shot at beating the Falcons, and that's with a stellar defensive coordinator. Chalk one up for the Aztecs.

I've been a big fan of Rocky Long ever since his tenure at New Mexico, where he revitalized a Lobos program into a Mountain West threat. Now, while they're a doormat, the Aztecs tend to be dangerous when playing at home.

And the fact this line is so low leads me to believe San Diego State is the play here.

See, there are so many who are touting Air Force's blowout win over BYU as a staple to this season, but the Cougars are crap this season. Heck they're getting more than four touchdowns from TCU this week.

Sure, the Falcons are 5-1 overall and 3-0 in league play, but the Aztecs' two losses have been by three points, each: a 27-24 setback to Missouri in nonconference play and a 24-21 loss to BYU. Both were on the road, and both conceivably could have gone the Aztecs' way.

Now I know what you're thinking, I just said the Cougars are crap, so why did San Diego State lose to them. Could have been the road factor. Could have been the altitude. I don't have the answer.

But I do know those losses were lessons learned. And I do know that Air Force isn't the only offense to worry about.

Quarterback Ryan Lindley's 1,394 yards passing lead the MWC and he has thrown for nine touchdowns. He also leads the conference in total offense with 1,382 yards. And it's not just passing, there's a balanced running game as well, as freshman Ronnie Hillman leads the MWC with 118.8 rushing yards per game.
San Diego State is in triple-revenge, it has the 31st-best defense in the nation and certainly won't be looking ahead to lowly New Mexico and it has Rocky Long to read all of Air Force's schemes.

As for the Falcons, they're ripe for an upset, they don't have a passing game to turn to when Long's defensive schematics shut down the running game and they have a trip to Texas Christian on deck.

Play the Aztecs.

4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE