Karl Garrett
UL-Lafayette at TROY (-19)
The Ragin' Cajuns are a MASH unit right now with plenty of injuries. Troy, who soundly beat Middle Tennesee State on the road 42-13 last Tuesday is healthy, (and gets a few days extra rest).
More importantly, just the week prior, Middle Tennessee State did crush the Ragin' Cajuns 34-14, and that was in Louisiana.
Both teams have lost to Oklahoma State: UL-Lafayette losing 54-28 at home last weekend, and they actually did play well early on surprising Oklahoma State with a "wildcat" QB formation not yet seen due to new QB and starters out on the offense. That element of surprise will not be there this weekend, as Troy will be ready for that package.
The Trojans lost a close one 41-38 at Stillwater - a game they should have won, but lost two fumbles inside the Cowboy's 10 yard line killing two 2nd half TD drives. Last weekend, OSU converted on 9-of-15 3rd downs and wore down the Cajun defense. This weekend, Troy will score and score and score....QB Corey Robinson has thrown for over 250 yards in all five games, with 11 touchdown passes, and only 3 picks.
Troy takes this one in a rout.
2♦ TROY
Matt Fargo
Texas @ Nebraska
PICK: Texas +10
How bad is Texas right now? Not that bad actually. The Longhorns have dropped two straight games against UCLA and Oklahoma and while those appear as losses on the slate, they were not that bad. Texas outgained both opponents and it is guilty of just one bad half, the second half against UCLA, which hurt it. We are dealing with a Texas team that is still Texas in that it has the players and coaches that compete. The Longhorns have not dropped three straight regular season games since 1997.
We won with Nebraska last Thursday over Kansas St. and while we switched gears with the Wildcats on Thursday after that bad performance, we will switch gears with the Huskers after their good performance. This is the biggest game for Nebraska in quite some time and it pales in comparison to last year’s Big XII Championship where the Huskers got the shaft. They will be out for revenge but going from a 14-point underdog to a 10-point favorite in this matchup in a span of just seven games is too aggressive.
The key to this game is the Texas defense. The Longhorns obviously need to slow down the Nebraska offense and with two weeks to prepare, defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will have his unit ready. Nebraska looked like the old Nebraska last week at Kansas St. as the Huskers ran up and down the field like it was playing a scrimmage. The situation is not the same this week as Texas has speed on defense and we cannot forget that this unit is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense and 19th in rushing defense.
On the other side, the Longhorns need to be efficient on offense and that starts with quarterback Garrett Gilbert. The running game is not up to Texas standards this season so handing the ball off is not going to work. Gilbert will need to manage the game out of the shotgun and take some chances. Gilbert has taken a backseat in this quarterback matchup yet he is the one with big-game experience as he nearly led the Longhorns back from an insurmountable deficit against Alabama in the BCS Championship.
While Nebraska has no doubt improved, the Longhorns have not fallen that far and the two-game losing streak helps us here as it provides both motivation and line value. This game is about respect and Texas is getting none. It is a 24-point swing from last season and while both teams have done a flip-flop, the flop has not been that big to constitute a more than three-touchdown swing. I guarantee that the no-respect card will be played before this one kicks off.
The Longhorns fall into a great contrarian situation here. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more straight losses going up against an opponent after four or more straight up wins. This situation is 83-33 ATS (71.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Texas has been an underdog of 6.5 points or more only three since 2005 and it won two of those games outright while covering all three. Nebraska has yet to be challenged this season until now. 3* Texas Longhorns
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Arkansas vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -3.5
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Lets go with Auburn Tigers, at home, in a very tough place to play. As I look at the resume of both teams, the more impressive one is that of the Auburn team here. Arkansas has given away leads in games all year and has had issues with Mallet at QB in terms of turnovers. Last week against an outmatched Texas AM they got by with it barely, but if you change momenteum in Auburns home stadium you are done, and THAT will be the key in this game, QB Mallet for the Hogs throwing a crucial interception, MARK MY WORDS. This kid is good, but forces it into coverage. Big mistake on the road in this stadium.
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Dual threat QB Newton is a HUGE factor on the ground and also through the air. Auburn has had a way tougher schedule and prevailed, Clemson, Miss State, both games they were down and found ways to win. They also have a quality win over South Carolina and also beat a good Kentucky team last week. The Razorbacks failed in their big test against Alabama and that was at home too. Overall the ground game favors Auburn, the home field is worth 4 points here and a back to back roadies for Arkansas is going to be tough.
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All this adds up to an Auburn Win, let the war eagle fly boys!
JR O'Donnell
Illinois/ Michigan State Under 51
Huge Power rating Overlay here as the exclusive JR O POWER RATINGS check in @ 45.7 points.. Jr's camp has been following the Illini's ball club very closely this season. We broke down the Fighting's big win last week @ Beaver stadium vs. the PSU Lions and it was all about the Big D, We are very high on new defensive coach V. Koenning as he has the Illinois crew ranked 21st nationally in points allowed (17.0 ppg), 20th in total defense (304.8 ypg). Look for the offense to shorten the game as hometown product RB Mikel Leshoure from Champaign, Ill. will pound the rock all game long. Leshoure ranks second in the Big Ten and 11th in the nation in rushing with 119.4 ypg.
The Illinois leader Ron Zook has the boys running the rock! Illinois leads the conference in rushing yards per game. The Illinois D held a PSU squad to 2.5 yds per carry, 7 first downs and 13 points! The Illinois O is a slow and steady O that just does not make the big plays. On the Flip side; Michigan State held ( Michigan Qb Shoelace) in check last week and made him throw the rock to win! The Michigan State D only allows 19 points per game and and allows opponents to run @ a 112 rushing yards per battle. This will be a game similar to last seasons battle a 24-14 ugly battle. The Spartans Qb Kirk Cousins is a super smart leader and will not force any bad throws and he will not give the llini a short field! Looking @ a few strong #'s here boys, The Michigan State crew is a Under machine as a home favorite... 10-4 Under @ home! The Fighting Illini are 6-2 under in conference!!
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Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
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Terrelle Pryor continued his push for the Heisman Trophy last week, completing 80% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns, in Ohio State's 38-10 victory over Indiana.
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Wisconsin rebounded from their first loss of the season with a 41-23 win over Minnesota. The Badgers were unstoppable on the ground, racking up a staggering 250 yards rushing.
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Ohio State opened as a 6-point favorite at Pinnacle and the #1-ranked Buckeyes are currently receiving 77% of spread wagers. While the betting public is all over Ohio State, the line has moved in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, dropping to -3.5.
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A quick scan of the Betting System plays on this game show there is value on the home underdog. Two positive Steam Moves and three positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Pinnacle (+11.11 units), have been triggered on Wisconsin.
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The market-setting sportsbooks have Wisconsin getting 3.5 points, but many others have moved to a full 4. Do some line shopping and grab the Badgers +4.
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Wisconsin +4
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Missouri at Texas A&M
Prediction: Missouri
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The Tigers and Aggies battle in a big Big 12 showdown in College Station early Saturday with a lot on the line for both teams. An Oklahoma look-ahead shouldn’t be a factor for Missouri here as Gary Pinkel’s bunch is a brash 7-1 ATS before hooking up with Okie. Nor should series history. After having their way with Mizzou in the ‘90’s (4-0 SU), the Tigers turned the tables on the Aggies last decade, posting a 3-1 SU record. A&M did cover two out of the last three in the series but that was all as dogs. They’ll be laying points this afternoon for the first time in the series since 2002. The Aggies’ 9-1 ATS mark at home off back-to-back losses is a concern but we can offset that with their recent 0-3 ATS log in Game Six. In what may very well be a case of the last team with the ball wins in this high noon showdown, we have no choice but to grab the points with another ranked underdog. We recommend a 1-unit play on Missouri.
Bettor Wins
Utah vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming +20.5
Utah shoots for its second 6-0 start in the past three seasons when it travels to Wyoming. The Utes have been a force on offense, averaging 49 points per game. The Cowboys are having trouble keeping teams out of the end zone, allowing 32 points per game. Of course, Wyoming is also playing its fourth AP top 11 team this season. Utah has won nine of the last 10 matchups with Wyoming, and leads the all-time series 50-31-1. We still like the points here.
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Play: Virginia Tech Hokies -22½
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After their slow start in losing first two games, Virginia Tech is starting to put into high gear, especially on offense. The Hokies are averaging 417.5 yards per game in last two contests, scoring a total of 86 points. They have been like bulldozers on the ground with 547 yards rushing in last pair and face a Wake Forest defense that has been run over for 246.7 yards per game on the ground in their last four outings.
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With Virginia Tech sporting a veteran cast on offense, Play On favorites of 21.5 to 31 points, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games, with eight offensive starters back. This college football system is awesome 28-4 ATS, 87.5 percent including 3-0 this season.
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Air Force Falcons vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Play: San Diego State Aztecs +1½
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This game caught my eye the moment I saw this match-up as San Diego State comes off a beating by of all teams BYU while Air Force continues to pound the ball and their opponents. Although the Falcons are 5-1 they have failed to 'cover' the number in their last three after dominating play. With TCU up next the 'Fly-boys' may be caught looking ahead as they are 0-3-1 before the Horned Frogs. Aztecs have covered last four as dogs at home home of seven-points or less and with Rocky Long running the defense he's prepared for the Falcons running game before. Take SAN DIEGO STATE!
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Eastern Mich vs. Ball State
Play: Eastern Mich +15
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We're quite surprised by this line as Ball State was just a 2 point favorite last year at Eastern and they won that game by exactly 2 points. Now they are laying a whopping 14 points at home. Ball State won two games last year while Eastern went winless. This year Ball State has won two games thus far with Eastern again winless. Simply put bad teams do not deserve to be laying this type of number. And make no mistake about it the Cardinals are a bad team. Teams just happy with a win do not have killer instinct, they always leave the door open for a back door cover but in this case we don't think we'll need it.
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Eastern has now dropped 18 straight games but they are actually improving under second year coach Ron English. They easily covered at home against Army and at Miami Ohio, another team not worthy of laying this type of spread. They were tied at the half in both games and were never in doubt of cashing. They have been beaten badly by teams much better than they are but that won't be the case on Saturday. Last week the Eagles traveled to Vanderbilt in a paycheck game and were beaten 52-6. But that's not a game English knows he can win, this week is a winnable game and we expect a solid effort from the visitor.
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Ball State is 4-16 the last 20 times they have taken the field. Only one of those wins was by more than today's spread and that was a 27-10 win over SE Missouri State in a game that was tied at the half. Ball State's only impressive victory this year was a 31-17 win at Central Michigan in a game in which they held a plus three turnover edge. We don't think they will have that advantage this week as the Eagles are only down four turnovers on the season and amazingly did not have a turnover deficit against Ohio State or Vanderbilt, two teams with much stronger and bigger players.
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These two teams are very similar but it's not showing up in the line based on Eastern Michigan's long losing streak. The Eagles easily covered against Army and Miami Ohio two teams somewhat similar in strength to Ball State. This one goes down to the wire.
Jim Feist
Mid Tenn St Blue vs. G Tech
Take: Over 58
Middle Tennessee (2-3 SU/1-3 ATS) has star QB Dwight Dasher (0 TDs, 1 INT) back after being suspended the first 4 games for accepting a $1,500 loan in violation of NCAA amateurism legislation. He’s the best player in the Sun Belt. The defense, though, is a problem, as we saw last week giving up 42 points to Troy. The defense was blistered for 238 rush yards by Troy – bad news when matching up with G-Tech. Georgia Tech (4-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) is loaded with speed behind senior QB Josh Nesbitt (5 TDs, 2 INTs). Georgia Tech posted its best rushing total in an Atlantic Coast Conference game to beat Virginia 33-21 on Saturday with a dazzling 477 yards on the ground. Play Georgia Tech/Middle Tennessee State Over the total!
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Illinois vs. Michigan State
Play: Illinois +7
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Both teams are off huge dog wins last week. Illinois surprisingly blew out Penn. St on the road and Michigan St. is off a huge rivalry win at Michigan. Looking at some of the angles in this one we see that Michigan St is 1-9 ats as a home favorite vs an opponent off a dog win, 1-5 ats home off back to back wins vs an opponent off a win of 10 or more. Illinois is 6-0 ats vs an opponent off back to back wins and 6-1 ats with revenge vs an opponent off a win of 10 or more points. Michigan St has the better chance of falling flat in this game. They are laying 7 points here and may win, but this one could very well go down to the wire. Take the points with Illinois here today.
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Army Black Knights at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Play: Army Black Knights +7
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This is going to be one of the last chances for the Black Knights to score that elusive fifth win of the season. If they can get that fifth 'W' and take care of lowly VMI, they'll be heading to a bowl game for the first time in seemingly forever.
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Army is looking more like the Navy Midshipmen of old this season, as it is running up and down the field and taking down names as it plows people over. There aren't dominating forces on this team, but everyone seems to do their own part. Jared Hassin leads the team in rushing with 393 yards and six scores, but Trent Steelman, Malcolm Brown, Brian Cobbs, and Patrick Mealy all have at least 180 yards in six games as well.
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With the offense struggling mightily under the direction of Tom Savage, Chas Dodd is going to be the man under center. This is quite the change from the norm for the Scarlet Knights, as this is an offense that Savage was supposed to be operating all year long as a sophomore. Instead, off of a 322 yard passing day against the Connecticut Huskies, Dodd will get the nod.
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Before throwing your hard earend money on the home team, you need to know that the Scarlet Knights are just 0-6-1 ATS in their L/7 games as favorites of 3.5-10 points. Army has to be getting tired of the way that Rutgers has dominated this series. The Scarlet Knights have won six straight SU and seven straight ATS, including some awfully ugly results mixed in. Last year, Rutgers took a 27-10 win in West Point, but this year, the tide is going to turn. Don't be shocked to see an upset.
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Florida Int @ N Texas
PICK: Under 47.5
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Sun Belt totals are not on the betting menu for most recreational bettors. That’s a real shame, because this week provides an outstanding opportunity to get involved with an Under play as North Texas and Florida International battle it out in Denton.
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The Mean Green have suffered a myriad of offensive injuries so far this season, most notably at the quarterback position. They are playing without their top two QB’s, and fourth stringer Chase Baine took the majority of snaps behind center last week. Head coach Todd Dodge, talking about how the Mean Green have been forced to change their identity: “We are not going to win games when both teams get into the 30’s….We can give up 28 points max.”
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In North Texas’s competitive five point loss to Arkansas State last week, they slowed down the tempo dramatically. Arkansas State likes to play uptempo, with an average of 146 snaps in their games. We saw North Texas keep the pace at their level, with only 130 plays run in the game. And the defense stepped up, holding the Red Wolves to a single field goal in the second half.
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Dodge: “Our defense is absolutely gaining confidence. Corner-backs] Royce Hill and D’Leon McCord did a great job on their outside receivers. Our concern was that we would get the run stopped and they would throw it right over the top with their two big guys. Part of the reason we were successful was our blitz package and our coverage. The combination was outstanding.”
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Florida International has a solid defense of their own, and an offense prone to mistakes and turnovers. They’ve only reached 400 yards of total offense once this season, and last weeks’ 28 point outburst against winless Western Kentucky matched their season high. Look for a slow pace and a dearth of big plays, keeping this game Under the total. 2* Take the Under.
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina @ Virginia
Pick: North Carolina -6.5
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North Carolina opened the season playing LSU in the Georgia Dome with seemingly half its team sitting out due to suspensions. The Tar Heels almost came back and won that game and after a loss to Ga Tech, have come back with three straight wins. Carolina now looks to break a four-game losing streak to Virginia (lost 10 of last 12 meetings), in what is the ACC's oldest football rivalry. Virginia is in a major rebuilding role under first-time head coach Mike London and comes in 2-3 with wins over just Richmond and VMI. The Cavs have given up 67 points in ACC losses to FSU and Ga Tech, allowing an incredible 733 yards on the ground (6.3 YPC). That should 'wake up' Carolina's rushing attack (122.4 YPG / 3.5 YPC) plus QB Yates is hitting 65% with eight TDs and just one INT in 160 attempts. The Tar Heels are playing with a lot of confidence and determination right now. Carolina has lost the last three years to Virginia, despite being favored (Tar Heels were favored by 13 points when they lost 16-3 LY) and ENOUGH is ENOUGH! Take the Heels.