SPORTS WAGERS
Arkansas +3½ over AUBURN
Call Bobby Petrino what you will but the fact of the matter is the man can recruit and the man can coach. Those reading this space last year know what a huge prize Ryan Mallet was for the Razorbacks and this year Mallet has simply obliterated opponents with his cannon arm and pinpoint accuracy. Mallet has completed close to 69% of his passes while throwing for 2150 yards, adding 16 touchdowns and only throwing seven interceptions. He is going to be a surefire first round NFL draft pick and is completely trustable on the road against elite competition. Auburn is 6-0 but the dirty little secret is that their schedule has been very weak, save for the win at home against South Carolina. Auburn’s 2 SEC road games have come against awful Kentucky and massively overrated Mississippi State while their 2 non conference games have come against Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe. So yeah, they sport that 6-0 record but Arkansas is going to be the best team They’ve faced all season and by far the best quarterback the Tigers defense has seen this year. The Tiger defense ranks dead last in the SEC in passing yards against and even the most ardent Auburn supporters know that’s a deadly problem for today’s tilt. If Petrino and Mallet can get the Razorbacks to average almost 465 yards per game while playing 60% of their games on the road, consider it a virtual guarantee that they will move the chains against the suspect Auburn defense. Gene Chizik and co. can take all the credit for getting Auburn to 6-0 but they’re in for a massive fall this week and beyond. They have Louisiana State at home next week and go on the road to play Ole Miss the week after. They will most likely be 6-3 at that point and will no longer be laying points to teams with better talent. So this wager is as much about betting the better team as it is taking advantage of an artificially inflated Auburn win total. Play the Razorbacks as underdogs before having to start laying road chalk with Petrino and Co. Play: #189 Arkansas +3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
NY Yankees –1 +1.05 over Texas
The Rangers blew a huge opportunity last night in the disastrous eighth inning and if nothing else, that horrible loss had to take a whole lot of steam out of them. That’s a tough loss to rebound back from and chances are they won’t. Colby Lewis famously got his foundering career on track pitching in Japan then returned to help the Rangers with sterling results in 32 starts. He relied on a 57%-27% fastball/slider mix this season, and skewed a little to the flyball side, not optimal facing the slugging Yanks lineup in this HR-friendly ballpark. He did not face New York this season, but in limited plate appearances by Yankee hitters, Lewis has a shaky control rate (4.2 bb/9) and surrendered a .786 OPS, including two HR by Derek Jeter. The Yanks, meanwhile, after a very poor outing by CC Sabathia, give the ball to Phil Hughes. Hughes had a great outing in Game Three against MIN and was flipped into this game (Andy Pettitte flopping to Game Three) because Hughes was more effective on the road than at home, especially at keeping the ball over the plate – and in the park. Hughes didn’t see the Rangers this year, but his career against current Texas hitters has been outstanding. In limited plate appearances, he has held the Rangers to a .079 BA and .257 OPS, with no jacks, by far the best marks among Yankee pitchers. But for the Rangers to right their suddenly sinking vessel, they’ll need to rebound in two areas that seemed like strengths, their bullpen and their baserunning. Oh, and Ron Washington managed the game like an idiot. RHP Darren O’Day and LHP Darren Oliver, were worse than useless. Oliver nibbled around the edges to issue two straight walks, then O’Day gave up a two-RBI hit to 3B Alex Rodriguez on the first pitch, then LHP Clay Repada – freshly activated for the series – gave up an RBI hit to 2B Robinson Cano, also on the first pitch, then Derek Holland gave up an RBI hit to Marcus Thames. And each of these pitchers was supposedly taking advantage of a platoon split. This is where Washington’s managerial decisions look questionable at best. He brought in the lefty Oliver not to face left-handed hitters, against whom he has a substantial advantage, but to face two switch-hitters, Swisher and Teixeira. This had the effect of letting those two guys hit right-handed. But both of them were substantially better at reaching base this season as RH hitters Note that Swisher’s OBP as a RHH was 84 points higher than as a LHH, and Teixeira’s was 71 points higher. Other analysts will make the point that an inning spiraling out of control – runs in, the heart of the order due, and more runners aboard - is exactly the high-leverage situation crying out for the manager to bring in his best reliever. But Nefti Feliz never got off his butt. Later, though, the “no excuses” file should have an additional sheet for Ian Kinsler, who worked a walk off Kerry Wood, then got picked off. There might be 9000 different ways to play that situation for a baserunner, but number one is: DON’T GET PICKED OFF! But here, again, we have to wonder about Washington’s decision-making, if indeed he called on Kinsler to steal. Wood had by that point thrown six pitches, five of them outside the strike zone. The Rangers should have given Wood the opportunity to be wild throughout the inning. Ron Washington did not shine in Game One and now the Rangers are at a big disadvantage everywhere. Suddenly, the relievers are fragile, the manager is fragile and no team is better at sniffing out a kill then the Yanks. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +1.01 over MONTREAL
Perhaps the Canadiens weren’t so crazy after all to let go fan favorite Jaroslav Halak and go with Carey Price. Price is the only reason the Habs are 2-1-1 to start the year but he simply can’t carry this team on his back every single game. Fact is, the Canadiens struggle miserably to score goals and that’s not about to change anytime soon. Montreal has scored just 10 times in four games and that is not going to result in a winning record much longer. This is a bad hockey team with great goaltending that has been badly outplayed in three of its four games and grossly outplayed in at least two of those. They’ll now play its third game in four days and the tail-end of back-to-backs after a less than impressive win last night in Buffalo. The Sens were very flat to open the year and proceeded to lose its first two before taking the Caps to OT and subsequently beating the Canes on Thursday. They were much sharper in its last two and you can expect more of that here against this bitter rival. The Sens one win is not an indication of this team. They’re going to win plenty of games this year with a gritty bunch and a very talented offense. If Price steals another, so be it, but we’re getting the team that is almost guaranteed to outplay their opponent and that’s a wager worth making. Play: Ottawa +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.00 over PHOENIX
We’ll all find out soon enough if the Coyotes were a one-hit wonder last year but this is not the game that will put that to the test. One thing is certain, however, and that is the Red Wings are back among the elite teams. Detroit is coming off back-to-back losses to Colorado and Dallas so you know they’ll be ready to go here. Also note that the game against Colorado went into OT and in Dallas, the Wings lost because Osgood was only able to stop 11 of 15 shots. Clearly, Detroit was the better team and they’ll go with the ever-reliable Jimmy Howard here. Howard is quickly getting recognized as one of the best in the business and when he’s in net the Wings chances of winning increase dramatically. Detroit has outplayed every team thus far in its four games and they catch the home team in a difficult spot. The Coyotes opened the year by splitting its first two games overseas against the Bruins. They’ve played two less games than the Red Wings and they simply can’t be as well prepared as their counterparts here. Phoenix has been off for a full week and they’ll return home from a “vacation” of sorts. They’ll have to be at 100% plus to beat the Wings tonight and that’s likely not going to happen. Play: Detroit +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +2.10 over SAN JOSE
The Sharkies are in the same position as the Coyotes in that they, too, return home after opening the season in Sweden. They split that series with the Jackets but could’ve easily lost or won both, as both ended 3-2 and both came right down to the wire. Incidentally, the Jackets were crushed last night at home by the Blackhawks and looked extremely flat. It’s simply an unfavorable situation for any team to be in and the Thrashers are no pushovers. The Sharkies have had two games and a whole slew of practices in the past two weeks while the Thrashers will play its fourth game this week. That’s a big advantage for Atlanta and they should not be tired because they played on Tuesday and last night and it’s also worth noting that they’ve played some strong teams in Tampa Bay, Washington and Los Angeles. San Jose is also a little unstable in net with Anti Niemi and he’ll make his home debut in is new digs. So, not only are the Thrashers in a favorable position, they also are an undervalued squad while the Sharkies are an overvalued one, thus creating a huge overlay in this contest. With a tag like this we’ll definitely take our chances should the game go into OT and thus we’ll include OT in this wager. Play: Atlanta +2.10 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +1.02 over DALLAS
The Stars are 3-0 to open the year but things aren’t always as they appear. They beat two vulnerable clubs in New Jersey and the Islanders and then they returned home to win its home opener vs the Red Wings. Dallas has been completely dominated for long stretches at a time and that includes its game vs the Islanders in which they were outshot 47-22 and out-chanced by about a 10-1 margin. They’ve ran into three shaky goaltenders thus far, DiPietro, Brodeur and Osgood and quite frankly, they’re lucky they’re not 0-3. They managed just 15 shots on net vs Detroit. By contrast, the Blue Notes have outplayed each of its three opponents and should be 3-0 but they’ll take a 2-1 start because they’ve played great hockey in every period they’ve been on the ice. These Blue Notes are a strong team that is somewhat undervalued right now and the time to jump on them is right now before the odd makers make the adjustment. Play: St. Louis +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay –1.02 over FLORIDA
With all due respect to the Maple Leafs, the Lightning are simply the most improved team in the league and it might not be close. Not only are they the most improved but they’re a real threat to win it all with a great mixture of youth, experience, talent, heart and grit. They already have a win in Philadelphia and they completely dominated both Montreal and Atlanta in its other two wins. The Panthers are most definitely another undervalued squad but this is a tough spot for them in that they opened the year with three games on the Canadian West Coast and that’s a very difficult stretch of games to open the year with. The Panthers are definitely on our radar but not tonight, as the Lightning are feeling it and they catch Florida at precisely the right time. Play: Tampa Bay –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Toronto +1½ over Hamilton
The Argos are coming off a huge win and unlikely win in Saskatchewan and that might have some believing this is a letdown spot. It’s also worth nothing that the TiCats have beaten the Argos twice already this season in two tries and have the blueprint for beating them. However, that win last week instills confidence and it’s just so difficult for one team to beat the other three times in the same season. Cleo Lemon has to step up his game for this one because Hamilton has been able to stop the running of Cory Boyd. If the Argos turn to Boyd again they’ll very likely suffer the same fate as the first two games. It’s not rocket science. You can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different results. So, expect the Argos to change it up here against what might be a complacent Tigercat squad. Play: Toronto +1½ (No bets).
Yoshihiro Akiyama +165 over Michael Bisping
Michael Bisping might be a beast when he fights on his home soil, sporting a 5-0 record in the UFC when fighting there, but he's still lost two of his last four overall. Bisping generally seems to be overrated and more importantly overbet in most of his fights, especially those that take place in England. Having said that, a lot of money has been pouring in on Akiyama since the line for this contest originated but anything over 3/2 is still worth a play. Akiyama will be trying to rebound from a shocking submission defeat to Chris Leben at UFC 116. The loss was a forgivable one though, as Leben was a late replacement that Akiyama would have had little to no preparation for. Since that fight, the man they call "Sexyama" has joined forces with MMA guru Greg Jackson. He won't just add technical aspects to Akiyama's arsenal but he is the best in the business for studying an opponent and developing a solid game plan for his fighter. Bisping's résumé isn't as nearly impressive as he or the UFC would like you to believe. Akiyama will be a more complete fighter and is bound to bounce back with a big effort here. It will be hard to overcome Bisping's home-octagon advantage but with Greg Jackson in Akiyama's corner and plus money in our favor he is the prudent play. Play: Akiyama +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
Travis Browne +1.65 over Cheick Kongo
Travis Browne entered the UFC in fine fashion with a first round TKO of James McSweeney. It certainly wasn't the toughest obstacle for his debut but the win extended his professional MMA record to 10-0. Seven of those victories came in the first round and he's only allowed one of his fights to go to a decision. He is taking a huge step up in class here but at least he's fighting a guy that should be on a lot of cappers "fade list". Cheick Kongo rebounded from two straight losses with a complete domination of Paul Buentello back in March. Kongo was able to manhandle his opponent on that night but don't expect that to happen here against a 6"7', 251 pound behemoth. Kongo's prior losses came to Cain Velasquez via unanimous decision and a horrible first round choke out to Frank Mir. He might have the experience edge but Browne will be one punch away from ending the contest at all times. It just doesn't make any sense to lay more than 8-5 on an inconsistent fighter that hasn't beat anyone noteworthy in over a year. Many would argue that Browne hasn't beat anyone either but he's also never tasted defeat and his ceiling is still unknown. It's never a good idea to back an athlete or team to do something they have never done before and that certainly applies to those taking a stand against Browne. He has never tasted defeat in his MMA career and the plus money value is too great to pass up. Play: Browne +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
C. Patrick (inside the distance) +1.35 over J. Wilks
Claude Patrick appears to have a promising career ahead of him in the UFC. The Canadian was dominant in his UFC debut against Ricardo Funch but even more impressive is the fact that he hasn't lost a fight in over eight years. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career and his wins have all come inside the distance with nine coming by submission and three via TKO. His only loss came in the second fight of his career when he allowed a fight to go the distance, so it's very clear that he doesn't want to let his fate be determined by the judges again. James Wilks most impressive victory came in the finale of the TUF 9 against DeMarques Johnson. Since then he lost to Matt Brown, who dropped his next two in the UFC , and then beat a fighter who is still winless since joining the UFC in Peter Sobotta. Wilks is 7-3 in his MMA career and two of those losses came by submission and TKO respectively. Patrick will give him all he can handle, as he is a seasoned grappler who should only improve in his 2nd appearance in the UFC. Patrick will win this fight and add to what is shaping up to be a very remarkable résumé. All of Patrick's wins have come inside the distance so it behooves us to take plus money on that proposition instead of laying almost 2-1. Play: Patrick (Inside the Distance) +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees (-125) at TEXAS
Today's FREE winner on the diamond comes from Game 2 of the ALCS as I go with the Yankees to make it 2-0 against the Rangers with a big win behind right-hander Philip Hughes.
For my free winner, it was an excruciating loss for the Rangers on Friday night, blowing a 5-0 lead and losing to the Yankees in Game 1 and putting all kinds of doubt in their heads as this series continues today. That’s why I’ll lay the chalk with New York and Hughes (19-8, 4.03 ERA) in today’s Game 2.
Texas was in complete control of the opener Friday night, leading 5-0 and cruising along with a party atmosphere in Arlington. Then the eighth inning rolled in and it seemed the Rangers couldn’t get an out and when the dust settled, they found themselves down 6-5 and eventually lost by the same score.
That crushing loss will carry over to today and you’ll see Hughes completely shut down the Texas bats. Hughes is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.86 ERA and he was great against the Twins in the ALDS, shutting them out for seven innings on four hits and striking out six in the 6-1 series clincher. Hughes has dominated the Rangers in his career, making two starts, both in Texas and throwing two shutouts. He’s allowed no runs and only three hits in 14.1 innings of work, striking out 12 in two easy New York victories.
Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.63 ERA) goes for the Rangers today and he hasn’t started against the Bronx Bombers since 2003. He made a start in the ALDS against the Rays, blanking them for five innings on two hits, but his bullpen imploded in the 6-3 loss. The Rangers have dropped three of his last four home starts.
New York’s mastery of the Rangers continues in the postseason, winning now 10 straight against them in playoff action. The Yankees are also on surges of 24-10 with Hughes on the hill, 6-2 when he faces A.L. West teams and 5-1 in playoff road games. Texas is just 4-11 in Lewis’ last 15 starts, 2-5 with him at home and 3-10 when he faces a winning team.
I’ll pay the price and look for the Yankees to take a 2-0 series lead behind the pitching of Hughes.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Stephen Nover
Iowa at MICHIGAN (+3')
I am on a 78-52-2 hot streak with my free baseball selections. I am also on a 6-1 with my free college picks, after going 2-0 the past two Saturday with complimentary releases.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last nine times. Iowa scored a late touchdown to win last year's game in Iowa City, 30-28, failing to cover as 9-point favorites.
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is one of the best all-purpose quarterbacks in the country. I give him a strong edge over Ricky Stanzi.
Iowa does have a tremendous defense, but Robinson is a special player. He's near-impossible to defend because of his running and passing talents. Robinson has rushed for 991 yards - which is double that of Iowa's leading rusher Adam Robinson - and he's also thrown for 1,223 yards. Robinson has accounted for 17 touchdowns.
The Hawkeyes are an overrated team. They shouldn't be laying points to Michigan in Ann Arbor. Iowa lost its lone road test falling to Arizona, 34-27. Wildcats quarterback Nick Foles threw for more than 300 yards against the Hawkeyes with two touchdown passes.
Iowa's wins have been against Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, Ball State and Penn State. The win against Penn State doesn't look so impressive now considering how bad the Nittany Lions have looked.
The Wolverines are finally comfortable in Rich Rodriguez's system. It took a couple of years, but the Wolverines are ready for a signature victory in the Rodriguez era. This is it.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Ohio State (-4) at WISCONSIN
I am on a 78-52-2 hot streak with my free baseball selections. I am also on a 6-1 with my free college picks, after going 2-0 the past two Saturday with complimentary releases.
No doubt Wisconsin will be sky-high or this game. Badgers coach Bret Bielema has never defeated the Buckeyes.
The line has come down in this matchup as early money has all been on the Badgers. I don't see it, though. Wisconsin can't play from behind and they are missing injured star linebacker Chris Borland, who was an emotional leader, too.
The Badgers just aren't that good. They defeated a terrible San Jose State team, which has the worst offense in the country, by just 13 points at home and nipped Arizona State by one point at home. Wisconsin then lost a crucial game to Michigan State.
The Badgers have surrendered seven touchdowns and 799 yards in their two Big Ten matchups against Minnesota and Michigan State.
Ohio State is arguably the best team in the country, deserving of its No. 1 ranking. Terrelle Pryor is a far better quarterback than Scott Tolzien, who hasn't been helped by a nicked up wide receiving corps that has been dropping too many passes.
The Badgers need to run effectively to win. Ohio State, however, ranks fourth in the country in run defense allowing only 79 yards on the ground per game.
The Buckeyes have won 12 in a row. They're not only well-coached and super talented, but they are physical enough to also beat the Badgers at the line of scrimmage, which is Wisconsin's strength.
Another factor is Wisconsin's hideous special teams coverage teams. Ohio State ranks 10th in the nation in kickoff return yardage. The Buckeyes should win the battle of field position with superior return skills.
The Buckeyes just don't lose these type of Big Ten challenges. They are 10-0 ATS when conference chalk of 10 or less points.
5♦ OHIO STATE
Derek Mancini
Ohio State at WISCONSIN (+4)
Okay, let's get something straight... Just because Terrelle Pryor picked apart a terrible Indiana defense, doesn't mean he's all of a sudden an "accomplished" pocket passer! We're talking about a Hoosiers defense that gives up over 400 yards of total offense/game, and was overmatched at every single position on the field. Oh yeah, and they were on the road too! Stop believing the hype and understand that the only true pocket passer in this game is Scott Tolzien. He may not have the numbers Pryor has, but he doesn't need them, not with the Badgers two-headed monster at running back.
Herein lies the biggest match up of this contest: the Badgers running attack vs the Buckeye's vaunted rush defense. Look guys, it's high time the public gave the Badgers the respect they're due. They've got a mammoth offensive line, and two RBs that complement each other perfectly, in the bruiser (Clay) and the burner (White). What's the best way to keep Pryor from hurting you? Keep him off the field with long, sustained drives behind that huge o-line. What's the best way to beat this aggressive Ohio State defense? Set up the play action pass with the run, which is exactly what I expect Wisconsin will do tonight.
Don't believe the Badgers offense can beat this Buckeyes' defense? You need to rewatch their meeting last season, where Wisconsin outgained the OSU by 184 yards and had a 22 to 8 first down advantage! Why did they lose 31-13? Simple, three, count'em three, special teams touchdowns. The Badgers won't make that mistake again, and that said, I wouldn't be shocked if Wisconsin pulled the outright upset here.
Given the home field advantage, and the all the factors mentioned above, I'll gladly take the points with Wisconsin in this contest. By the way, for all the talk about how good Pryor is as a passer, did you see his only road game this season? He threw for 76 yards, 2 TDs and a pick... Before you go annointing him the "next coming," let's see him get it done on the road. Wisconsin plus the points over Ohio State Saturday.
3♦ WISCONSIN
Michael Cannon
Arkansas (+3') at AUBURN
Take the points with Arkansas today on the road over Auburn.
Auburn has been having trouble putting its opponents away and that could be its undoing today.
That’s because Arkansas has the better defense and a superior passing attack with quarterback Ryan Mallett.
Mallett is completing 69 percent of his passes and is averaging 350 ypg. He has big play wide receivers in Joe Adams and Greg Childs.
Auburn’s secondary is suspect and I expect Mallett to find the holes in it.
The Tigers are allowing opponents to hit 65 percent of their passes and have surrendered eight TDs against only four INTs.
Most SEC games tend to be tough battles and I’ll gladly take the points with the better overall defense and passing game.
Take the points with Arkansas.
4♦ ARKANSAS
Derek Mancini
South Carolina at KENTUCKY (+5)
This is a classic letdown spot, one week removed from upsetting Alabama, the Gamecocks will be hard-pressed to maintain their focus in what is a tougher than expected conference road game tonight in Lexington. I know all about the series history, Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky, I get it. But we also know South Carolina has lost six straight conference road games, so counting on them to deliver here is a stretch at best.
I was impressed with Kentucky last week, in what was a tough loss to Auburn. They're 3-0 ATS at home this season, and are led by one of the more dynamic players in college football in Randall Cobb. While people are busy talking up Stephen Garcia after last week's effort, let's not forget Mike Hartline had a fantastic game against Auburn last week as well, completing 23 of 28 passes for 220 yards and a TD! To be honest, I'll take Hartline at home, over Garcia on the road anyday.
While we give the edge to South Carolina on defense, I like the match up for the Wildcats o-line, which has been their most consistent unit this season.
The 'Cats will be likely be without Derricke Locke, but they have enough depth to keep the chains moving between youngsters Russell and Sanders. For all the good we saw from South Carolina last week, I expect a much different effort on the road here tonight. Grab the points with Kentucky as they catch the Gamecocks in the perfect spot (off their biggest win ever). Wildcats are hungry coming off the tough loss last week, and that'll be the difference as SC fails to match their intensity Saturday.
1♦ KENTUCKY
Michael Cannon
Air Force at SAN DIEGO STATE (+1)
Take San Diego State at home over Air Force.
San Diego State should be in a foul mood here after losing at Byu last week. The Aztecs were on the wrong end of a couple of home town calls that ultimately led to the loss. On one, San Diego State appeared to have recovered a fumble at its own 25 late in the 3rd quarter. Replays showed the runner clearly lost the ball before his knee was down, but officials stayed with the ruling on the field.
Byu scored five plays later and went up by 10.
After that, San Diego State closed to within three, then had a questionable pass interference call go against them and Byu ran out the clock.
Last year Air Force scored 23 of its 26 points off turnovers against the Aztecs.
The chalk is just 2-9 ATS in this series, and Air Force is listed as a one-point favorite across the board.
Take San Diego State as it bounces back from last week’s loss to Byu with the home win tonight.
2♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Bobby Maxwell,
Air Force (-1) at SAN DIEGO ST.
By Featured Handicapper
Today's FREE winner from the college gridiron comes from the Mountain West Conference where I'm dishing out a winner on Air Force as the Falcons are in San Diego to take on San Diego State.
Air Force is off to a great start in the Mountain West Conference and today they take that 3-0 record to San Diego State to take on the Aztecs, who have also surprised a few teams this season.
The Falcons have the nation’s best rushing attack at 352.7 yards per game, but they were held to “just” 248 last week in a 49-27 win over Colorado State (falling short as 24-point favorites). The reason the rushing numbers were so low is because QB Tim Jefferson actually threw the ball a few times, completing five passes for 160 yards and two TDs.
Air Force finished with 185 yards passing, the most for that school in three seasons.
San Diego State’s two losses were both on the road and both by just three points, losing at Missouri and at BYU. They rushed for just 53 yards last week in their 24-21 loss to the Cougars, falling as 4 ½-point favorites. The Aztecs were in the Top 25 in the country with their rushing attack at 213.5 yards per game but the MWC’s leading rusher, Ronnie Hillman, was held to just 62 yards.
The difference tonight will be San Diego’s inability to stop the run. They gave up 271 yards rushing to BYU last week and now they have to take on the best running game in the country. The Aztecs have lost 23 straight games against ranked opponents, dating back to 1996. And they have lost three in a row to Air Force, including a 26-14 road loss last year, allowing 243 yards rushing and only managing 39.
Last time Air Force rolled in to San Diego, the Falcons took a 35-10 win and easily cashed as 10 ½-point favorites. I’m going to play Air Force in this one and look for them to win this one by 10 points at least.
4♦ AIR FORCE
Chris Jordan
Air Force at SAN DIEGO STATE (+1)
Only one shot at beating the Falcons, and that's with a stellar defensive coordinator. Chalk one up for the Aztecs.
I've been a big fan of Rocky Long ever since his tenure at New Mexico, where he revitalized a Lobos program into a Mountain West threat. Now, while they're a doormat, the Aztecs tend to be dangerous when playing at home.
And the fact this line is so low leads me to believe San Diego State is the play here.
See, there are so many who are touting Air Force's blowout win over BYU as a staple to this season, but the Cougars are crap this season. Heck they're getting more than four touchdowns from TCU this week.
Sure, the Falcons are 5-1 overall and 3-0 in league play, but the Aztecs' two losses have been by three points, each: a 27-24 setback to Missouri in nonconference play and a 24-21 loss to BYU. Both were on the road, and both conceivably could have gone the Aztecs' way.
Now I know what you're thinking, I just said the Cougars are crap, so why did San Diego State lose to them. Could have been the road factor. Could have been the altitude. I don't have the answer.
But I do know those losses were lessons learned. And I do know that Air Force isn't the only offense to worry about.
Quarterback Ryan Lindley's 1,394 yards passing lead the MWC and he has thrown for nine touchdowns. He also leads the conference in total offense with 1,382 yards. And it's not just passing, there's a balanced running game as well, as freshman Ronnie Hillman leads the MWC with 118.8 rushing yards per game.
San Diego State is in triple-revenge, it has the 31st-best defense in the nation and certainly won't be looking ahead to lowly New Mexico and it has Rocky Long to read all of Air Force's schemes.
As for the Falcons, they're ripe for an upset, they don't have a passing game to turn to when Long's defensive schematics shut down the running game and they have a trip to Texas Christian on deck.
Play the Aztecs.
4♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Karl Garrett
UL-Lafayette at TROY (-19)
The Ragin' Cajuns are a MASH unit right now with plenty of injuries. Troy, who soundly beat Middle Tennesee State on the road 42-13 last Tuesday is healthy, (and gets a few days extra rest).
More importantly, just the week prior, Middle Tennessee State did crush the Ragin' Cajuns 34-14, and that was in Louisiana.
Both teams have lost to Oklahoma State: UL-Lafayette losing 54-28 at home last weekend, and they actually did play well early on surprising Oklahoma State with a "wildcat" QB formation not yet seen due to new QB and starters out on the offense. That element of surprise will not be there this weekend, as Troy will be ready for that package.
The Trojans lost a close one 41-38 at Stillwater - a game they should have won, but lost two fumbles inside the Cowboy's 10 yard line killing two 2nd half TD drives. Last weekend, OSU converted on 9-of-15 3rd downs and wore down the Cajun defense. This weekend, Troy will score and score and score....QB Corey Robinson has thrown for over 250 yards in all five games, with 11 touchdown passes, and only 3 picks.
Troy takes this one in a rout.
2♦ TROY
Jeff Benton
On today's free pick. I've now hit three straight free-play winners as Cincinnati got the job done at Louisville on Friday, so I’m now on a 141-112-2 run with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday’s college football freebie, take the points with Ole Miss at Alabama.
I certainly don’t expect the Crimson Tide to lose for a second straight week, nor do I even expect the final score to be in the single digits. That said, you have to figure Alabama will have a bit of a hangover after seeing its 19-game overall winning streak and 29-game regular-season winning streak come to a halt in last week’s humbling 35-21 loss at South Carolina.
Besides, Nick Saban’s troops have to be physically and mentally worn out, coming off a five-game stretch that went as follows: home vs. Penn State, at Duke, at Arkansas, vs. Florida, at South Carolina. This is now ‘Bama’s seventh straight week without a break, while Ole Miss is coming off a bye following back-to-back comfortable home wins over Fresno State (55-38) and Kentucky (42-35).
Granted, the Rebels haven’t faced an opponent the caliber of Alabama to date – not even close – but you can’t argue with their rushing success on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss is outrushing its opponents by an average of 116.4 yards per game (232-115.6), and it is averaging 1.5 more yards per carry (5.0-3.5) than its opponents.
The Crimson Tide have won six straight meetings in this rivalry, but the average margin of victory has been 8.7 ppg, with four of the last five wins by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points (and the Rebels are 4-1 ATS over this five-game stretch). More startling than those numbers are these: Ole Miss has cashed in 10 of its last 11 games as a road favorite in SEC action, while Alabama is 1-6 ATS following a SU loss in the Saban era.
Too many points to pass up here, especially with Rebels QB Jeremiah Masoli (formerly of Oregon) finally grasping Houston Nutt’s offense at Ole Miss.
5♦ OLE MISS
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boise State at San Jose State
Boise State faces off against weak San Jose State, who are getting 40.5 points! Boise State is coming off two huge Blowout wins against terrible Toledo and New Mexico State teams so don’t expect another huge blowout win. San Jose State is coming off three terrible games so you can expect a solid performance out of them tonight. Boise State is definitely a much better team than San Jose State but they will not get this huge cover! Take San Jose State plus the points!
Play on: San Jose State
Wunderdog
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Anytime you can get Roy Halladay in a big game, you have to consider your chances of winning very high. Halladay already has a no-no in his pocket this playoffs season. He is a great pitcher that is red hot as he has now tossed back-to-back complete game shutouts. The Phillies are 6-0 in his last six starts, and 12-2 in his last 14. Tim Lincecum made some headlines himself with a dominating 14 strikeout-effort vs. the Braves. I have a lot of respect for Lincecum, but the Phillies are a different lineup than the Braves, and in his four years in the big leagues, the Giants have yet to win a game in Philly with him on the mound. The Giants’ track record as an underdog from +151 to +200 is a discouraging 20-42. The Phillies have dominated as a playoffs favorite, turning in a 15-1 mark in their last 16. Philadelphia wins game one.
Freddy Wills
UTEP Miners vs. UAB Blazers
Play: UAB Blazers -2½
The Situation…. No not the guy from Jersey Shore!
Opposite records for two division foes as UTEP is only a win away from bowl eligibility and UAB is 1-4 looking at a season of not playing in a bowl game. So why are they favored at home? UTEP has had one of the weakest schedules in the country and that’s not to say they cannot still win this game. UAB was embarrassed at home against Central Florida last Wednesday 42-7. This game will have a large impact on how the rest of the year will go for the Blazers.
Why UTEP Can Win?
The Miners will look to do what every team has done against UAB throw, throw and throw. QB Trevor Vittatoe has 14 TD’s already on the season and a 28th ranked passing offense to boot. UAB’s secondary has done nothing to stop anyone giving up 11 TD passes and forcing only 1 interception. However, Vittatoe is going up against a better pass defense than he has been accustomed to this season despite UAB’s rank as UTEP has gone up against an average pass defense ranked 92nd.
Why UAB Can Win?
While it was not really possible to see against a very tough Central Florida defense last week the UAB offense has shown plenty on offense. UTEP really has not been able to get much of a pass rush and they have not been tested on defense despite their 50th total defense rank they have only faced an average offensive team ranked 93rd on average. UAB ranks 47th and is pretty balanced with their dual QB situation with Bryan Ellis the pocket passer and David Isabelle the speedster who can pick up large chunks of yards. I really expect UAB to be able utilize Isabelle more and also find time in the pocket for Ellis to connect to his playmaking receivers Frantrell Forrest, Mike Jones, Patrick Hearn, and Jackie Williams, but Isabelle will make the biggest impact on the ground.
Take UAB -2.5 (2.2 Dimes)
That brings up a good question and the public is all over UTEP and rightfully so considering their record, but the home team will prevail here. UAB has extra rest playing on Wednesday of last week while UTEP played on Saturday. This is a bigger game for UAB who wants to go to a bowl game and they are home and should play like it. They have faced an average defense 64th and offense 64th while UTEP comes in with 106 and 93rd. I’m not trusting UTEP’s record and playing on the road against a desperate team is different. Now this is not my strongest play of the weekend, but off a 5-1 NCAAF Saturday last weekend come visit my site for more!