James Manos
San Jose State at Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State -19
Most bettors would look at a Western Athletic Conference game where you have a 2-3 team favored by 19 points over a 1-4 team and either bet the underdog or pass on the game. Not me.
What you have in this game is a mismatch of epic proportions. While both teams played three out of conference games versus BCS schools, San Jose State was totally outclassed in each game while Fresno State almost won two of the three games on the road versus Wisconsin and Cincinnati.
Fresno State has the top running back in the nation in Ryan Mathews at 148 yards per game. The Bulldogs have run for at least 179 yards in all five games this season and piled up 290 and 320 rushing yards on top-10 opponents Cincinnati and Boise State.
They will be going up against a San Jose State team that has the third-worst run defense in the nation.
When San Jose State does get the ball they are about as one-dimensional as there is in college football today. They have totaled just 103 rushing yards in their four games this season against Division I opponents.
Game, set, match. Fresno State is the play on Saturday and this one shouldn't even be close.
Lee Sterling
South Carolina at Alabama
Pick: South Carolina +17.5
South Carolina's Gamecocks roll into Alabama, catching the Crimson Tide after a huge effort in shutting down Ole Miss in last week's action.
South Carolina has been a spoiler, cashing in on six of its last nine as road dogs against top-10 teams. The team has covered six of eight games against the spread as a road underdog against an undefeated conference opponent after the third game of the season.
Coach Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks also have cashed at a 10-4-1 clip when getting points overall. More importantly, South Carolina has won the yardage battle in all six of its games this season.
The Gamecocks jumped out to an early lead against Kentucky and held on to win. Their lack of a dominant performance against the lowly Wildcats is a good indication that the Gamecocks were looking ahead to this game.
Alabama hasn't lost a regular-season game since 2007 but it has not been profitable for backers when playing within the SEC. The Crimson Tide is just 9-22-2 ATS at home when facing a conference foe.
This is a potential letdown spot for the Crimson Tide, laying more than two touchdowns the week before they take on Tennessee. Alabama is 0-4 against the spread before facing Tennessee and 2-7 against the spread as a conference home favorite of 15 points or more.
At Alabama, Nick Saban is 0-3 against the spread in Tuscaloosa when facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .833 or greater when laying more than three points. Take South Carolina and the points.
Jorge Gonzalez
Wake Forest at Clemson
Pick: Under 49.5
This play is once again based on our offensive efficiency ratings and the value they create versus the posted line. I made the number for this game 44.5 and here we get to play "under" at a substantially higher number all while gaining the key totals of 47 and 49 in our favor.
Clemson has underachieved for the season but owns a stellar defense and should be able to contain what has become a pedestrian Wake Forest attack. Demon Deacon coach Jim Grobe has a history of playing well as a dog and on the road in a tough environment, he should be looking to play conservatively.
These two have a recent history of playing close, lower-scoring games and I'll look for that to continue here. Under, in a tightly contested game.
Vegas Sports Informer
Take BYU (-17.5) over San Diego State
BYU is coming off an easy win on the road against UNLV and I believe that UNLV might be a better team then San Diego State. BYU has outscored San Diego State 136-56 in the last several meetings so Saturday night the Cougars should again have no trouble against the Aztecs. BYU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings against San Diego State and the Aztecs are a poor 1-7 ATS following a win.
Allen Eastman
Take Central Michigan (-6.5) over Western Michigan
Central Michigan has one of the top quarterbacks in the country and a defense that is more than holding up its end of the deal. CMU is coming off a blowout of one in-state rival, Eastern Michigan, and is looking for a sweep of Michigan teams. The Chips have won three straight in this series, including a 10-point win last year, and I don’t see any reason why they won’t lay a big number on the Broncos.
Strike Point Sports
Take Mississippi State (-4) over Middle Tennessee State
A 2-4 record doesn't really suggest much, but this Bulldogs team is playing much better under new head coach Dan Mullen. And where MSU has flourished is their ground attack, putting up over 225 yards per game. With talented tailbacks Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre, there is no reason not to believe this duo won't continue to exploit a Blue Raiders team that has not been able to stop the run all year. Middle Tennessee State gave up 264 yards rushing to Troy last time out, and this SEC run game is even more impressive. Give the points and take Miss. State on the road.
Bet Sports Best
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Selection: Texas Tech Red Raiders +10
Oddsmakers currently have the Cornhuskers listed as 10-point favorites versus the Red Raiders, while the game's total has not yet been posted.
Texas Tech pounded Kansas State 66-14 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Week 6.
Texas Tech covered as a 16.5-point home favorite while the final score played over the 54.5-point total.
Nebraska scored all their points in the fourth quarter as they rallied for a 27-12 victory over Missouri in Week 6. Nebraska covered the 4-point spread, while the combined score went UNDER the posted total of 50.
Zac Lee threw for 158 yards with three touchdowns to lead the way in that win for the Cornhuskers.
Take Texas Tech Red Raiders +10
BIG AL
California at UCLA
In this Pac-10 matchup, two teams in the midst of disappointing seasons will meet in Los Angeles. Jeff Tedford's Bears were ranked in the Top 15 to start the season, but have gotten blasted by Oregon (42-3) and Southern Cal (30-3) in each of their last two games. And UCLA has also lost two straight at Stanford (24-16) and at home to Oregon last week (24-10). So something's gotta give on Saturday, and one of these two institutions will get back into the win column and raise its record to 4- 2 on the year. Currently, California is a 3.5-point road favorite, and the Bears are a dismal 2-14 ATS as road faves of 7 points or less since 1992, and UCLA is a solid 21-7 ATS as a home dog over the same time frame. Last season, Cal defeated the Bruins by 21 points, 41-20, but UCLA has still won six of the last eight meetings straight-up when played at the Rose Bowl in Los Angeles.
Play UCLA
Mississippi St at Middle Tenn St
Middle Tennessee comes into this game after having last weekend off, while Miss State played its 3rd consecutive home game last week, and the Bulldogs lost all three to LSU, Georgia Tech and Houston. Interestingly, Middle Tennessee comes into this contest off three straight road games, and I look for the Blue Raiders to get the cash on Saturday. Not only has Middle Tenn covered all three of its games vs. Miss State over the past 10 years, but it also falls into a 59% ATS system of mine. That angle plays on rested home teams off a loss vs. foes off three straight home games. Take the home dog Blue Raiders.
Play Middle Tenn St
Mike Wynn Sports
Iowa @ Wisconsin Preview
Oklahoma and Texas may be the marquee game on the board this Saturday but there’s a big game in Madison as Iowa travels to Wisconsin to take on the Badgers. Hawkeyes off another prime time win over Michigan are still perfect on the season and ranked 11th in the latest AP poll and they’ve now won 10 straight games dating back to last season. Wisconsin off a loss last Saturday at Ohio St that wasn’t near as bad as the final score would indicate. Badgers gave up 2 interceptions for touchdowns in that game including a 89 yarder and a kickoff return of 96 yards for another score. Badgers dominated the stats with a 22-8 first down edge, a 368-184 total yardage edge and they owned the time of possession by a whopping 42:47 to 17:13. So while Wisconsin looks to bounce back Iowa looks to keep its winning streak intact and keep a Big10 Championship in their sights. So let’s take a look at these two teams a little closer and we’ll start with the visitors from Iowa City.
It hasn’t been a pretty 6-0 for the Iowa Hawkeyes this season, but head coach Kirk Ferentz doesn’t care about how he gets the wins just as long as he gets the wins. Iowa has had narrow home wins over Northern Iowa & Arkansas St this season which has probably kept them from a higher ranking then the 11 they currently sit at. Iowa offense has been inconsistent this season and it has a lot to do with the play of junior QB Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi has looked good at times with 10 touchdown passes this season, but he’s also looked bad at times with 8 interceptions. Iowa running game has been as good as it was suppose to be this season as Iowa’s offensive hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, and injuries to the running backs prior to the season certainly didn’t help. Iowa offense has been inconsistent but the defense as always has been solid under Norm Parker. Hawkeyes are only allowing 15.8 points per game this season and it has a lot to do with the defensive line. Defensive tackles Clayborn and Klug have been absolutely dynamite on the defensive front at pressuring the QB and stopping the run and they just make the whole defense look good with what they’ve been able to do. Iowa defense has forced 19 turnovers this season and there’s no doubt that they’re the main reason the Hawkeyes are where they are this season.
Wisconsin Badgers have been a bit of a surprise team this season. Head coach Bret Bielema has the Badgers at 5-1 this season and big part of their success has been the emergence of QB Scott Tolzien. The 6-3 junior has emerged as a solid QB for the Badgers completing 64.2% of his passes this season for 9 touchdowns against 5 picks. For the most part Tolzien has made good decisions and has been accurate with the football. Of course the bread butter for the Badgers is still the running game. Wisconsin averages 201 yards per game on the ground this season and they love to pound it with their big backs John Clay & Zach Brown. When the running game gets going they love to play action and they have a decent receiving corps to get the ball to, led by Nick Toon and Garrett Graham. Defensively the Badgers are not as dominant as the Iowa defense but they have a quick active front 7 led by O’Brien Schofield on the defensive line and Jaevery McFadden in the linebacking corps. Wisconsin defense is capable of making plays as they’ve turned over their opponents 16 times this season. Badgers feel they should be 6-0 heading into this game and they’ll be eager to knock off a highly ranked hated rival Saturday, especially in front of a homecoming crowd.
Looking at the trends and angles for this game Saturday, it’s been an Iowa series lately. Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS the last 7 versus Wisconsin including 3 straight covers in Madison and the underdog has covered the last 4 games played in Madison. Wisconsin is just 1-8 ATS against good defensive teams that allow less then 17 points per game, however, the Badgers are 20-11 ATS as single digit favorites against Big 10 opponents. This game figures to go down to the wire and I like the under in this one. Iowa tends to play defensive games on the road and their 30-16 under road record under Ferentz bears that out. Iowa also 11-3 under on the road in October and 26-15 under when playing in games where the total is between 42½ and 49 points. This series may not get the hype of a Michigan/Ohio St or Auburn/Alabama, but there’s a genuine distain on both sides and it’ll be a hard hitting affair. 7 of the last 11 in this series have stayed under and we’ll look for another under Saturday.
Vernon Croy
Ohio State vs. Purdue
Play: Ohio State -13.5
This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and we are getting very good line value here with the superior overall team. Minnesota just exposed the Boilermakers defense in the second half of last Saturday's game and the Buckeyes are a lot better than the Golden Gophers that just beat Purdue by 15 points. Purdue's offense depends on their running game but the Buckeyes defense has been solid against the run this season with opponents averaging just 89 rypg against them and just 2.7 yards per rush. The Buckeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after a win and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Buckeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and the Favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games between these two teams. Take the Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday.
Ben Burns
UAB at Mississippi
Prediction: UAB
I respect both of these teams and played on each of them in their most recent game. UAB came through for me, scoring an outright 30-17 win (as 10 point underdogs) vs. Southern Miss. However, Ole Miss failed to get it done, falling 22-3 vs. Alabama.
The Rebels are loaded with talent and even though they couldn't beat the Crimson Tide, they're still one of the top teams in the powerful SEC. That said, this is also the Blazers' best team in recent memory. While many will expect the Rebels to bounce back with a blowout victory, the Blazers have the schedule in their favor. I look for them to be a lot more competitive than expected.
While they're certainly capable of bouncing back with a big win, I feel that the Rebels will have a tough time recovering from last week's loss. After all, that was a game which they had circled since the schedule came out. With another big SEC clash (vs. Arkansas) on deck, it may be easy for them to overlook a team from lowly Conference USA.
On the other hand, the Blazers have had plenty of time to get focused. That's because they haven't played since way back on 10/01. Note that they're a profitable 11-6 ATS their last 17 lined games, when coming off a bye. While just 2-3 overall, the Blazers have only been beaten by more than 13 points once and that was when they were playing the second of back to back road games.
The Blazers are 3-0 ATS their last three games against teams from the SEC. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they faced a team with a winning record. Additionally, they're a profitable 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as underdogs in the +21.5 to +31 range. Consider taking the points.
Scott Spreitzer
Iowa at Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin
The very first number for this contest found Iowa as a short road favorite. Wiscy was laying a couple of points at the time of this write-up, but I believe the line should be a few points higher. If you were with me last week on these pages, you already know that I'm not quite "sold" on the Hawkeyes. I released Michigan plus the points and we cashed the ticket in a two-point Iowa win. It was Iowa's sixth straight win to start the season and 10th in a row, overall, but they barely escaped despite forcing five Michigan turnovers. QB Rick Stanzi is an "okay" signal-caller, but nothing special. He has thrown almost as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (10) on the season. In fact, three of his "picks" have gone for TDs. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are allowing a good chunk of yardage on the ground, something Wisconsin should be able to exploit. Iowa is allowing over four yards per carry on the season. This is good news for Wisconsin RB John Clay who has rushed for over 106-yards per game on five yards per pop. Defensively, the Badgers are getting better by the week. They have held their last three opponents (Michigan State, Minnesota, and Ohio State), to just 81.3 rushing yards per game on 3.17 yards per carry. Wiscy statistically dominated Ohio State last week, but lost 31-13. The Badgers held the Buckeyes to 97 rushing yards on 27 carries; 87 yards through the air on 5-of-13 passing; and just eight first downs. Wisconsin out-gained Ohio State by almost 200-yards and had 14 more first downs, but gave up a pair of defensive touchdowns and one on special teams. Last season, the Badgers collapsed after losing a three-point contest to Ohio State. After starting this season 5-0, they're determined not to fall apart after shooting themselves in the foot against the Buckeyes again. Iowa has covered six of the last seven in this series ATS, but Wisconsin has won two of the last three meetings, outright. I'm still not "buying" in regards to the Hawkeyes, and I believe we'll cash our second straight ticket going against them. I'm laying the points with Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon.
Larry Ness
Hawaii @ Idaho
Pick: Idaho -7.5
Let's hear it for Idaho head coach Robb Akey, who opened his third season at Idaho by ending the school's 14-game road losing streak by winning 21-6 at New Mexico St. The Vandals lost 42-23 at Washington the following Saturday but let's note that Washington owns wins over then-No. 3 USC and Arizona plus lost 37-30 at now-No. 25 Notre Dame. By the way, Idaho has won four straight games since that loss to the Huskies, led by an offense which is averaging 28.7 PPG. That's quite an achievement considering the Vandals failed to average as much as 20 PPG in TWO of the last three years (averaged 19.6 in '08 and 16.9 in '06). QB Nathan Enderle is completing 62.6 percent for an average of 251.5 YPG (8-6 ratio) plus the running attack averages 155.5 YPG (4.4 YPC / 11 TDs). It's a two-headed attack with Woolridge gaining 450 yards (6.1 YPC) and McCarty gaining 331 yards (also 6.1 YPC). As for the Rainbows, is it really just two years ago that Colt Brennan led a 12-0 Hawaii team to a Sugar Bowl meeting against Georgia? The Rainbows lost that game 41-10 (game wasn't as close as the score) and June Jones left for SMU after the season. Greg McMackin led the Rainbows to a 7-6 regular season last year but they then got bombed by Jimmy Clausen (22-of-26 for 401 yards with five TD passes) and Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl (49-21). Hawaii opened the '09 season 2-0 but then lost 34-33 at UNLV. A 27-6 loss followed at La Tech where starting QB Greg Alexander got hurt. Alexander led the nation in total offense (446 yards), ranked second in passing (411.3 yards) and fifth in passing efficiency (178.8) entering the La Tech game but threw for just 199 yards and two interceptions before being knocked out of the game late in the third quarter. Alexander had surgery to repair "major ligament damage," leaving the pass-heavy Warriors with virtually no game experience at the QB position. The Rainbows returned home to lose 42-17 to Fresno State last Saturday night and didn't score a TD until the 4th quarter of that game (trailed 42-3 at the end of three), ending a seven-quarter streak without a TD. Third-string QB Bryant Moniz, making his first career start after Greg Alexander suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Warriors' previous game, threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns. While the Vandals are 1-8 in this series including SEVEN straight losses, that was THEN and this is NOW! Lay it with Idaho.
Matt Fargo
Texas A&M @ Kansas St.
PICK: Kansas St +6
After starting the season with three wins over three relatively weak teams, Texas A&M has dropped its last two games against Arkansas and Oklahoma St. Once this game goes off, we will be more than halfway through October yet this is the first true road game of the season for the Aggies. They did play a neutral field game in Irving, Texas against the Razorbacks and they were handled pretty well in that one. This is a revenge game for Texas A&M who had won five straight meetings but road revenge, especially when this is the first road game of the season, is an angle that should not be looked at. Kansas St. was hammered last week at Texas Tech as it lost by 48 points while getting outgained by 455 total yards. That certainly does not bode well for momentum purposes but that game was on the road as was its one game prior to that which was a win against Iowa St. in Kansas City. That game was won in the final seconds on a blocked extra point so there was a possible letdown factor heading into the game against the Red Raiders. On the season the Wildcats are 0-3 on the road and 2-0 at home and even though both wins came against FCS teams, heading back home now is a big advantage. Despite not being able to stop Texas Tech for the majority of the game, the Wildcats has put up solid numbers this season as a whole on defense, ranking fifth in the Big XII in total defense with 345.8 ypg, seventh in rushing defense with 126.3 ypg and seventh in passing defense with 219.5 ypg. On the other side, the rushing offense has been the strength as it is 38th in the nation with 176 ypg while running back Daniel Thomas is 24th in the country and third in the conference in rushing at 96.3 ypc. Since the schedule has picked up some stream, Texas A&M has not done well against the run as it is allowing 187 ypg on 4.9 ypc over its last three games. This is the same story on offense as well as after averaging 244 ypg through its first three games, it has put up just 111 ypg over its last two. A Bill Snyder-coached team has never allowed 66 points before as the most points ever scored on Kansas St. was during a 64-3 loss at Colorado back in 1990. Snyder was brought back to turn this team around and while it has not gone as planned yet, not many were expecting a turnaround in year one anyway. He has brought his teams ready to play in these spots as his teams have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last eight games coming off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival. This includes a 7-0 ATS mark when that loss took place on the road. It may seem early to talk about this but this week and next week against Colorado are pretty much must wins if the Wildcats want to entertain any hope of postseason play since the final four games of the season are against teams a combined 16-4. 3* Kansas St. Wildcats
Sean Murphy
Washington @ Arizona St.
PICK: Washington +6.5
I really believe that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Washington is riding high after that huge come-from-behind win over Arizona last week, while Arizona State continues to search for its identity and comes off an unimpressive 27-14 win at lowly Washington State.
I backed the Sun Devils last week, thinking that they would finally break out offensively against one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. That didn't happen as QB Danny Sullivan continued to struggle, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions. Their ground game hasn't been picking up the slack, averaging just over 136 rush yards per game on four yards per rush.
Defensively, Arizona State has been solid, and they'll certainly need to be at their best against this high-powered Huskies offense. Washington's aerial attack has thrived thanks to QB Jake Locker, who has thrown for over 1,400 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions this season. He's averaging a solid 7.2 yards per pass. If the Sun Devils have a defensive weakness, it's against mobile QBs like Locker.
Arizona State is 2-1 at home this season, but those two wins have come against the likes of Idaho State and Louisiana Monroe. The win over ULM wasn't all that impressive despite the 38-14 scoreline, as they outgained the Warhawks by only 65 total yards. Two weeks ago the Sun Devils were upset by Oregon State, 28-17 as 5-point favorites.
The betting markets are still down on the Huskies, even after their upset win over USC earlier this season, and it has everything to do with their awful 2008 campaign. Keep in mind, they were without Jake Locker for much of last season, so we can't put too much weight in those results. The fact is, they're playing competitive football, as evidenced by their narrow overtime loss at Notre Dame two weeks ago.
This is a game that could go either way, so I'll gladly take the generous helping of points with the Huskies. Take Washington.