Alex Smart
Army @ Temple
PICK: Temple -10
Temple enters into this home game against Army leading the MAC East Division and are currently in a good position to notch their 4th straight win this Saturday vs a Knights side in a let down spot after a grueling 16-13 OT win vs Vanderbilt last week. The Owls defense has been staunch so far this season, forcing 14 turnovers -eight interceptions and 14 sacks . Temple's run stopping prowess has been especially effecient, allowing just 90.4 ypg on just 2.9 yards per attempt, and remains their strongest suit. This should once again prove to be difference maker against a Army attack that moves the chains, on offense , almost exclusively via the ground game. My projections for this contest estimate that Army will gain less than 250 yards on offense which is not a good omen for their chances at covering in this spot as dogs as they have failed in 10 of their L/11 ATS under these statistical parameters ,losing SU by an average of 16.2 PPG. Projected score: Temple 27 Army 10
Joseph D'Amico
Navy vs. SMU
Play: Navy -7
Navy crushed SMU 34-7 a year ago. The Midshipmen come into this game winning 3 straight. They are 8-1 ATS their last 9 games played in the state of Texas. Navy's relentless ground attack is too much for the defenseless SMU squad. The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS their last 6 vs. SMU, 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a road fav', and 4-1 ATS their last 5 non-conference games. The Mustang's are 1-5 ATS their last 6 vs. the Indep. and 3-9 ATS their last 12 at home. Navy and their ground game put a hurting on SMU.
Mitch Wilson
South Carolina vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -17
Two SEC rivals meet for the first time in four years as the Alabama Crimson Tide host the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Alabama is off to a monster start this season and are receiving votes as the number one team in the country. While there is little to do to control how people vote, the Tide just need to keep winning and if they do that they know their destiny is in their own hands. It hardly seems like a little over a month ago many were concerned with a first year starter at QB and losses along the offensive front in Tuscaloosa. It is obvious that the Tide put a lot into conditioning being the reason for last season's late losses that arguably cost the Tide the National Title and this team is in top condition. When the second half and fourth quarter have come around, Alabama has clearly looked like the fresher and stronger team all the way around. The Tide defense has been on lock down against both the run and the pass and the offense has been playing well within itself and utilizing everything, especially their strong stable of running backs. It is going to take a huge effort to beat Alabama this season and even then it make take Alabama making some costly mistakes as well.
South Carolina made believers out of a lot of people a few weeks back when they got a Thursday Night win against Ole Miss. This is clearly a different Gamecock squad as they have more offense then we have seen in the past several years with Stephen Garcia at QB. With Garcia, it gives South Carolina options that they haven't had as his mobility opens things up as does his arm. On the defensive side, South Carolina has been the same rock we have grown accustomed to the past several seasons though we have seen them stumble and allow other teams to go on so runs. South Carolina gave up a lot of yards on the ground last week and if that isn't something they improve on right away, this could be a very long day for the Gamecocks.
Alabama is 4-0 against the spread in their last four as a favorite, 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home, games and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight SEC games. South Carolina is 4-1 against the number in their last five as an underdog of 10 or more points, 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 road games, but just 1-4 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.
I think South Carolina is improved but I think they are in big trouble in this spot. I do not think the way Kentucky ran for over 200 yards against the Gamecocks is a good omen and I think Alabama puts some drives together and really takes South Carolina out of their gameplan and then lets the defense take over.
Pick: Alabama -17
Black Widow
1* on Southern Miss -14
Southern Miss is a much better football team than their 3-3 record indicates. Their three losses have come by an average of 7.3 points/game, and coming off 3 straight setbacks the Golden Eagles will be very hungry for a win when they return home Saturday. All three losses came on the road, but Southern Miss is 3-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 15.3 points/game where they average 38.3 points/game on their home field. Memphis is just 2-4 this year, including 0-2 in road games where they are losing by 17.5 points/game away from home. Those 2 road losses came against the likes of Middle Tennessee State and UCF, two teams that aren't nearly as talented as Southern Miss. USM is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home meetings with Memphis. The Golden Eagles are 11-6 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Tigers overall. The Tigers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a S.U. win. Take Southern Miss and lay the points.
Dennis Macklin
Colorado State vs. TCU
Play: Colorado State +22
Don't really understand this line that features two teams pretty stout against the run (TCU 83 ypg, CSU 111 ypg) with the Frogs seventh overall in the NCAA (249 ypg)in total defense. That said, TCU is not much on offense having scored 103 points (26 ppg) vs anyone not named Texas State. TCU in clear look ahead spot with BYU on deck and we're asking Frogs to pitch a shutout JUST to cover the number. The Under is 4-1 L5 in the series, the last two games 24-12 and 13-7 last year. TCU should be VERY happy to get outa Dodge with a win so give me the three plus touchdowns with Colo State.
John Anthony
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Under 47½
This is a huge game for both teams. Iowa is 6-0 and with a win here and a November 14th win at Columbus, could with some luck back door their way to the National Championship game. Wisconsin is 5-1 off their first loss last week at Ohio State in a game where they had the ball 43 minutes, outgained the Buckeyes 368-184 but were victomized by two pick-sixes and a 90-yard kickoff return. Both teams have bad habit of playing up/down to their competition but with so much at stake, count on this being a Big 10 in-the-trenches defensive street fight. We saw the Hawkeyes defense at their best when they held Penn State to just 307 yards (80 on first play)in their house and pitching a second half shutout. Wisky off monster effort holding Pryor to 5-13, 87, and a pick. Most of this play is between the 20's and this one stays well under the 48 posted total.
Steve Zukiel
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Iowa +3
The 6-0 Hawkeyes are off to their best start since 1985 and they have won 10 straight for the first time since 1923. Wisconsin might have the slight offensive edge, but Iowa has the huge defensive and special team edges. I like the points in this one.
Freddy Wills
Illinois vs. Indiana
Play: Illinois -3
I think the Illinois team that was one of the better offenses will finally arrive on Saturday when they face Indiana on the road. Illinois ranked #1 in passing offense a year ago in the Big 10 and now are last and all they lost were two linemen, so what gives? Well they have not faced the easiest schedule thus far that's for sure. Illinois have faced an average 26th ranked overall defense. 45th against the pass and 24th against the run. Illinois has been able to run the ball pretty well good enough for 44th int he nation against some tough defenses. Illinois will face a very weak Indiana defense that ranks 72nd overall including 79th against the pass and 67th against the rush. If Jameel Sewell can throw for 308 yards against Indiana last week than I'm confident Juice Williams and company can be productive too as they have much more talent in their receivers than Virginia has. Illinois won in 2008 55-13 in an absolute blow out and many Indiana returners remember that game, but with most of the Illinois team back they know they can beat this team so confidence will be there. Illinois coach Ron Zook already expressed how badly Illinois needs this game stating, "I don't care if we play in Central Park, We've got to go win a football game." That much is clear and despite going on the road I think Illinois finally benefit from a weak line as they play an opponent that is finally beatable.
Bob Wingerter
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -2.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are ranked 30 on offense, averaging 422.3 yards per game. The Badgers are averaging 200.7 yards rushing and 221.7 yards passing so far this season. The Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked 67 on offense, averaging 363.0 yards per game. The Hawkeyes are averaging 130.2 yards rushing and 232.8 yards passing so far this season. The Wisconsin Badgers are 4-0 at home this season, 2-1 against conference opponents and 3-0 against non-conference opponents. At home the Badgers are averaging 36.0 scoring, and holding teams to 23.8 points scored on defense. Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Fresno –19.5 vs San Jose
Ohio State –13 vs Purdue
NC State +2 vs BC
Single Plays
Temple –10 Army
North Texas pk vs Florida Atlantic
Ohio –14 vs Miami, OH
Houston –16 vs Tulane
Nebraska –11 vs Texas Tech
TCU –22 vs Colorado State
Northwestern +14.5 vs Michigan St.
Colorado +10 vs Kansas
Arkansas +26 vs Florida
Idaho –8 vs Hawaii
Tom Stryker
Marshall vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -21
West Virginia and Marshall have played three times in the past three years and the Mountaineers have dominated the Thundering Herd winning all three by the combined score of 117-36. This year’s Backyard Brawl favors WVU again.
Since taking over for Pat White, West Virginia quarterback Jarrett Brown has been in a zone. Through five games, Brown has passed for 1,190 yards and accounted for 1,384 yards of total offense. Rest assured, this fifth year senior will rip apart a Marshall pass defense that is currently ranked 68th in the country!
The Thundering Herd isn’t exactly college football’s best road team either. On foreign soil, Marshall owns a dismal 20-37 SU and 18-37-2 ATS record dating back to the start of the 2000 season including a miserable 2-11 ATS in this role checking in off a blowout victory of 21 points or more. Even worse, as an underdog priced at +8 or more, the Herd is a pathetic 1-16 SU and 4-12-1 ATS including a stunning 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in this role in non-conference action.
There is a strong system that goes against Marshall here too. Since 1980, road dogs priced at +15’ or more are a soft 23-39 ATS provided they covered as a road favorite in their last game. If our guest is matched up against a non-conference opponent, this situation crashes to a dismal 9-21 ATS. The Thundering Herd applies to the general system and the tightener.
If West Virginia QB Brown doesn’t get the job done, then Mountaineers RB Noel Devine will absolutely shred a Marshall rush defense that is currently ranked 91st in the country. WVU simply has too many weapons for this poor-traveling Thundering Herd bunch. Take West Virginia!
Marc Lawrence
Hawaii at Idaho
Play: Hawaii
The Warriors travel to Idaho to take on the Vandals in a WAC showdown knowing they are taking on a whole new role in this series this week. Aside from having been underdogs in all six games this season, Idaho have the last four in a row SU as puppies. That's never good considering that favorites off three SU underdog wins in row are just 4-19 ATS. Add to that the fact the Spuds are 4-12 ATS as a favorite this decade, including 1-9 when laying three or more points. With Hawaii having been favored by 24, 25 and 26-points the last three years in this series, we'll take the generous points in this overlay.
Tom Freese
Utah at UNLV
Play: Utah
Utah is 20-7-3 ATS their last 30 games as favorites of 10.5 or higher and they are 36-17-2 ATS off a straight up win. The Utes are 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 October games and they are 5-2 ATS vs. losing teams. UNLV is 8-17-1 ATS their last 26 October games and they are 12-30-1 ATS after rushing for less than 100 yards. The Runnin' Rebels are 4-11 ATS their last 15 games off a double digit home loss and they are 0-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. PLAY ON UTAH -
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota @ Penn St.
PICK: Penn St. -17
I’m not convinced that Minnesota is going to find the end zone even once on a very nasty Saturday in Happy Valley. We’re looking at snow, blustery winds and a game time temperature hovering around freezing. Penn State ranks among the nation’s top 10 in rushing defense, scoring defense, total defense, sacks and tackles for loss; a pretty impressive quintet. They’ve yet to allow a touchdown in the first half this season – in fact, they’ve only allowed six first half points through their first six games.
Minnesota is really struggling to get the kinks out of their new pro-style offense. QB Adam Weber has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year, bad news for a third year starter. His only weapon, WR Eric Decker, is likely to be a non-factor in these conditions against this defense. The Gophers running game has been inconsistent at best, and they are down to their third string center on offense.
Penn State has the ability to score on defense in these conditions, and their run-first offense is also well suited to move the football on a nasty day. Since the loss to Iowa, the Nittany Lions offensive line has shown dramatic signs of improvement, resulting in back-2-back 500+ yard efforts and 87 points scored. Meanwhile, the Gophers defense is ranked ninth in the Big Ten. They athleticism and speed both on the defensive line and in the secondary – all the big plays and touchdowns here should come from the Penn State side. 2* Take Penn State.
DAVID MALINSKY
Minnesota @ Penn St.
PICK: Under 48.5
On a blustery afternoon in State College in which we can expect freezing rain and possibly snow, the conditions do not set up well for the offenses. But even on the best of days we were not going to see much flow in this matchup anyway, and that means outstanding value for this setting.
For as good as the Penn State defense has been statistically this season, the Nittany Lions are even better than that. It would not have been difficult to have pitched shutouts vs. both Akron and Syracuse to open the season, with both of those teams getting their only points in the second half of one-sided affairs. Then Temple did not find the end zone, and the Iowa offense did not reach paydirt until there was 8:32 remaining in the game. The following week Illinois did put up 17 points, but that game was 28-3 midway through the fourth quarter before the Illini could score a TD. The bottom line shows some strong charts, but it gets even better when you note that this defense has allowed only six first-half points all season (Iowa also scored on a safety), and that of the five TD’s they have allowed, four came in the fourth quarter, three of the latter in games that State was leading by at least 21 points when the TD’s were scored.
Penn State has also been doing this at less than full health, but with key LB Sean Lee ready to go again this unit can go to an even higher level. That helps to set the tone for this one, while the Lion offense also keeps the pace down in a similar fashion, with Joe Paterno once again being content to merely grind away with a lead. In theory the key to this offense would be the mobility of QB Daryll Clark, who brings the kind of mobility that allows for a lot of run/pass options. But because there is such little experience behind Clark there has been a major emphasis on him taking as few hits as possible, which explains the low count of 27 rushes for 111 yards through six games. We will see him carry the ball more in the Big 10 showdown games later, but not here.
Minnesota does not bring much to threaten this defense. We are at least seeing the ground game improve, something that Tim Brewster was making a major emphasis this season (44 carries for 207 yards vs. Purdue last week), but big-play ability is lacking – while the first three Big 10 scoreboards show them with 35 points vs. Northwestern, 28 vs. Wisconsin and 35 vs. Purdue, note that they only averaged 322.7 yards in those games, getting TD’s on a fumble return and a blocked FG. They have a legitimate weapon outside in Eric Decker, but while he is difficult to stop, the fact that opposing teams can key on him (he has 46 receptions, no one else has more than 13) keeps the yardage down – he is only averaging 13.7 yards per catch.
Look for yet another methodical Penn State win here in a game that should not get near the Total that has been set.