LEE KOSTROSKI
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
PICK: North Texas
North Texas is just 1-4 but we like the situational play with Mean Green over Florida Atlantic. Other than a road game @ Alabama, the Mean Green has out-yarded all of their opponents. Excluding the ‘Bama game, North Texas has 803 rushing yards on 159 carries in four games (5.0 YPC). Three players have rushed for more than 183 yards and all three have a carry average above 4.3. They just lost by four points to UL Lafayette, but had 149 more yards and gave up touchdowns on an interception return and a blocked punt. They had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold onto it, falling 38-34. Florida Atlantic isn’t good enough to get outplayed by the Mean Green and still win so we expect a big victory for NT.
Florida Atlantic kicked off the season with two blowout losses to Nebraska and South Carolina by a combined score of 87-19 and gave up 1,007 total yards. Those were two understandable losses, but they bounced back with two more HOME losses to UL-Monroe and Wyoming. They rank near the bottom of the nation in all major defensive categories, allowing 448 YPG, 225 rush YPG, and 36 PPG. North Texas should have a big day on the ground against this porous defense.
The Owls defeated North Texas last season, 46-13; so there will be a revenge factor for the Mean Green. Florida Atl. out-gained the Mean Green by 252 yards and forced 4 turnovers. North Texas is much improved from their 1-11 record last season. 16 total starters, including nine defenders and their top two running backs return from their 2008 team and they will remember being torched by the Florida Atlantic offense. Florida Atlantic is already 0-4 ATS in 2009 and they are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog. Expect North Texas to get the easy ATS cover at home against the owls.
Carlo Campanella
Georgia at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt
Both of these SEC squads are in the middle of disappointing seasons, with Georgia (3-3) losing back-to-back Conference games to LSU and Tennessee and Vandy (2-4) also losing back-to-back games to Ole Miss and Army. The public will be laying points with a Georgia squad that has won 13 of the last 14 meetings in this series, but Georgia is tough to recommend in this road favorite role, knowing that their defense is allowing 31 points per game this season, with [assing defense ranked 11th in the SEC. With 2 Conference losses already under their belt, Georgia doesn't have much to play for against a Vanderbilt squad that has covered the spread the last 3 times these two teams have met. Take the points with home dog Vandy, who should be able to keep this game close, with a ball-control offense, averaging 190 rushing yards per game against a Georgia squad that has only won by 11, 4, and 3 points this season.
7* Play On Vanderbilt
John Martin
1 Unit on Texas Longhorns -3
Texas isn't about to let Oklahoma stand in their way of a National Championship. The Longhorns are on a mission this season after getting snubbed last year, and they know they must win this one if they want any chance of getting a title shot. Texas beat Oklahoma last year and the Sooners had a much more talented team that year than they do this season. The Sooners have already lost to BYU and Miami this season, and even though Sam Bradford only played in half of the BYU game, he can't be blamed for losing both those contests because backup Landry Jones did a remarkable job in his place. The Sooners are lacking playmakers on offense, especially at wide receiver. They had 10 dropped passes in their win last week against Baylor, a sign of immaturity at the wideout position. Texas has 9 offensive starters back from last year's team that put up 45 points on Oklahoma in the win, and they have plenty of playmakers for QB Colt McCoy to spread the ball around to. It's this Texas defense that really give the Lonhorns the edge, allowing a mere 15.0 points/game this season. They are incredibly stout against the run, allowing just 1.6 yards/carry this season and 46 rushing yards/game. Oklahoma's biggest strength offensively is their running game, but Texas will take that away and force Bradford to try and beat them. The fact is that he doesn't have enough weapons around him to do it. Oklahoma is just 20-35 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Cash in with Texas as the favorite.
Jim Feist
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Play: Oklahoma +3½
Oklahoma (3-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) didn’t get the cover last week, a 33-7 win over Baylor, but the events of that game make this one so much more interesting. Junior QB Sam Bradford (2 TDs, no INTs) returned after being sidelined with a shoulder injury and was outstanding: 27-of-49 for 389 yards (6 passes dropped). The 49 passes attempts matched the second most of his career. Think Bob Stoops did that to test his arm for this game? This is a strong defense, with senior DT DeMarcus Granger anchoring a solid line. With two losses already, perhaps this is their national title game. Play Oklahoma!
WUNDERDOG
Ohio State at Purdue
Pick: Ohio St. -13.5
The Buckeyes lost the battle of the stats last week in a big way against Wisconsin. They lost the first down battle 22-8 and were outgained by a 2-1 margin 368-184. They had the ball for just 17 minutes the entire game. Yet they were able to win the game 31-13. What did they do right? Looking at the numbers it is hard to understand how the Buckeyes won by 18. They did it with the No. 11 ranked defense that scored 14 points and special teams that scored on a 96-yard return. They were also very efficient, out-rushing the Badgers by a yard per carry and out-gaining them in the air by a yard per pass attempt. It proved the Buckeyes can win big even if their offense was not prolific. The Boilermakers are not a good football team, sitting at 1-5. They lost on the road to Minnesota last week by 15, in a game they should have been in. QB Joey Elliott will provide the Buckeyes defense with more opportunities as he has already completed nine to the wrong team. The Buckeyes' offense will finda lot more room than they did last week when they face a defense ranked No. 76 that is allowing over 30 points per game. Ohio State's offensive struggles last week do not overly concern me. They have scored 30+ points in five of six games this year (only team they didn't lay 30 on was USC). They have put up 900 yards of offense in their two road games. That's all well and good, but should they be a road favorite after that performance? Consider this! Road favorites that have 5+ returning starters that are coming off a really bad offensive performance (gained under 225 yards) have gone 28-3 ATS over the past fifteen years! On top of that, Ohio State is 9-1 ATS the past three seasons as road chalk. The Buckeyes are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 conference games, including 17-4 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered seven straight after a SU win. The Boilermakers are just 11-24-1 ATS against a team with a winning record.This one is all Buckeyes.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(20) Oklahoma (3-2, 1-3 ATS) vs. (3) Texas (5-0, 1-4 ATS) (at Dallas)
Sam Bradford and the Sooners look to knock archrival Texas from the ranks of the unbeaten as well as the national championship picture as these Big 12 foes clash for the 81st consecutive year in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
After missing 3½ games with a serious shoulder injury, Bradford returned last week and went 27-for-49 for 389 yards with one TD and no INTs as Oklahoma rolled Baylor 33-7. The Sooners had a 586-268 edge in total offense, but had to settle for four field goals of 35 yards or less, costing them a cover as a 27½-point home favorite. In its three victories, Oklahoma has outscored its opponents 142-7.
The Longhorns ran their winning streak to nine in a row with last Saturday’s 38-14 victory over Colorado, though they never threatened to cover as a 33-point home favorite. Texas actually trailed the lowly Buffaloes 14-3 in the final minute of the first half before ripping off five unanswered touchdowns to finish the game. The Longhorns had just 313 total yards (46 rushing), but the defense allowed just 127 total yards and senior QB Colt McCoy was solid, going 32-for-39 for 265 yards with one TD and one INT. Texas has won all five games this year by double digits.
Oklahoma jumped out to leads of 14-3 and 21-10 in last year’s Red River Rivalry, and also led 35-30 midway through the fourth quarter. However, Texas got two rushing TDs from Cody Johnson to rally for a 45-35 victory as a seven-point underdog, the 10th time in the last 11 years that this battle was decided by double digits. The teams were even statistically – the Longhorns had a mere 438-435 edge in total offense – but the Sooners had five turnovers compared with two for Texas. Bradford went 28-for-39 for 387 yards, five TDs and two INTs, while McCoy was 28-for-35 for 277 yards with one TD and no picks, and he also rushed for 31 yards.
The Sooners started this decade with a five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this rivalry, but since 2005, Texas is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma, cashing the last three years as an underdog. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings since 1999, and the underdog is 14-7 ATS in the last 21.
Even without Bradford (58.7 percent completion rate, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) for much of the season, the Sooners have still managed to average 35 points and 457 total yards per game (187.8 rushing ypg, 4.4 yards per carry). The defense, though, has been the big key, allowing a total of six touchdowns (8.4 ppg) while yielding just 256 total yards per contest, including 53.6 rushing ypg (1.8 ypc).
Texas is putting up 47.2 points and 479.4 total yards per game (174.8 rushing ypg, 4.5 ypc). McCoy has thrown six interceptions this year, but he’s still completing 73.4 percent of his throws for 282 ypg with 10 TDs. Defensively, the Longhorns are surrendering 15 points and 233 yards per outing (46.6 rushing ypg, 1.6 ypc).
Oklahoma has followed up a 10-2 ATS runs by failing to cover in four of its last five lined outings going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game loss to Florida. The Sooners are also 1-4 ATS both in their last five neutral-site contests and their last five in October. Otherwise, though, Bob Stoops’ squad is on positive pointspread surges of 6-1 in Big 12 play, 8-2 as an underdog and 11-3 after a SU win.
Texas went 9-3 ATS in the 2008 regular season, but since failing to cover against Ohio State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns are 1-5 ATS (all as a favorite). They’ve also failed to cash in five of their last seven Big 12 contests and 11 of their last 15 when favored by 3½ to 10 points. However, Mack Brown’s team is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral-site outings.
The Sooners have stayed under the total in five straight lined games going back to last year’s BCS Championship Game, and the under is 4-1 in their last five as an underdog. However, nine of the team’s last 10 conference contests have topped the total. Texas carries “under” trends of 6-2 overall and 4-0 in Big 12 play. Finally, last year’s game soared over the 57-point total after the previous two meetings stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
(6) Southern Cal (4-1, 2-3 ATS) at (25) Notre Dame (4-1, 1-4 ATS)
Notre Dame will attempt to defeat Southern Cal for the first time since 2001 when it welcomes the sixth-ranked Trojans to South Bend, Ind., for this traditional non-conference matchup.
Both teams come into this game off a bye. Two weeks ago, USC went to Cal and hammered the Bears 30-3 as a four-point road favorite, piling up 174 rushing yards and 283 passing yards, while the defense permitted just 255 yards and forced two turnovers. The Trojans have given up just two touchdowns and a total of 43 points in five games, and going back to the beginning of last season, USC has surrendered 10 points or less in 13 of 18 games, yielding a field goal or less eight times.
The Irish are coming off a 37-30 overtime victory over Washington, failing to cover as an 11½-point home favorite. QB Jimmy Clausen had another huge game, going 23-for-31 for 422 yards with two TDs and one INT, but the defense yielded 457 total yards (176 rushing).
USC has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry (6-1 ATS, all as a favorite) by an average of 27 points per game, including five wins of 31 points or more. The last two years, the Trojans have outscored Notre Dame 76-3 and outgained them by a combined 911-256 margin, surrendering just 98 rushing yards and 15 first downs in the two contests. Going back to 1996, USC has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings.
The Trojans’ stout defense (8.6 ppg, 238.6 total ypg allowed) is buoyed by an offense that’s averaging 28.8 points and 430.8 total yards per game, including 208.2 rushing ypg (5.5 per carry). Freshman QB Matt Barkley in four games is connecting on 59 percent of his throws for 958 yards with three TDs and two INTs. However, in its first two roadies at Ohio State and Washington, USC’s offense produced just 18 and 13 points, respectively.
Clausen has passed for 1,544 yards (67.6 completion rate) with a 12-2 TD-to-INT ratio, and the junior guides an offense that’s putting up 32.6 points and 470 total yards per game. However, the defense continues to leak. Since a 35-0 rout of Nevada in the season opener, the Irish have allowed an average of 29.8 points and 427.3 total yards per contest.
USC carries positive ATS trends of 21-6 in non-conference play, 14-4 in non-conference roadies, 15-6 against winning teams, 16-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points and 9-1 when laying that price on the road. On the negative end, the Trojans are in pointspread funks of 1-5 on the road (all as a favorite), 5-12 in October and 0-6 after a spread-cover.
Notre Dame is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after a bye and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 in October, but the Irish’s ATS trends turn south from there, including 0-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 6-11 as an underdog, 4-9 as a home ‘dog, 2-8 when catching between 3½ and 10 points and 4-15 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
The Trojans are on “under” streaks of 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 15-5-1 in October, 7-1 versus winning teams and 22-6 after a spread-cover. Similarly, the under is 5-2 in Notre Dame’s last seven against Pac-10 opponents, 12-4 in its last 16 as an underdog and 10-3-1 in its last 14 after a bye, but the over is 6-1-1 in the Irish’s last eight in South Bend.
Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry (2-0 at Notre Dame).
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
(4) Virginia Tech (5-1, 3-3 ATS) at (19) Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-2 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has climbed back into the national championship picture after ripping off five straight impressive wins, figures to face a stiff challenge in this ACC matchup with the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.
The Hokies throttled Boston College 48-14 as a 13½-point home favorite last Saturday, improving to 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in ACC play. By halftime against the Eagles, Virginia Tech had a 34-0 lead and 293 total yards to just 3 total yards for B.C., and it finished with a 441-163 yardage advantage (235-29 rushing) while the defense forced three turnovers. Since a season-opening 34-24 neutral-site loss to Alabama in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome, the Hokies have won five games by margins of 42, 1, 24, 8 and 34 points.
Georgia Tech outlasted Florida State in a shootout last Saturday, winning 49-44 as a three-point road underdog. QB Josh Nesbitt (140 rushing yards, 131 passing yards, four total TDs) had a huge game, but the defense squandered 539 yards while the offense lost three fumbles. The Yellow Jackets have won and covered three in a row since a 33-17 ACC loss at Miami, and they’re averaging 36.4 in their five wins.
The Hokies edged Georgia Tech 20-17 last season, but came up short as a 6½-point home favorite. Virginia Tech is 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in five meetings this decade, including a 27-3 rout as a three-point ‘dog in its last trip to Georgia Tech in 2007. The road team (and underdog) has cashed in the last three clashes (two outright upsets).
Virginia Tech has won 15 of its last 20 ACC road games SU and is on ATS runs of 23-11 on the highway, 29-12 in conference play, 11-4 as a road chalk and 7-1 against teams with a winning record. However, Frank Beamer’s squad has dropped five of six October games against the number.
The Yellow Jackets are on pointspread runs of 10-5 overall, 5-2 at home, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 in October, 7-3-1 as an underdog, 13-3-1 when catching three points or less and 6-0 when getting three points or less at home.
The over is 5-2 in the Hokies’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last six as a road chalk, 4-0 in their last four in October and 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s last seven games on grass. However, the Yellow Jackets are 18-6-2 “under” in their last 26 October outings and 8-1 “under” in their last nine as an underdog of three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
(11) Iowa (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS)
Off to its best start in 24 years, Iowa will try to keep its Big Ten championship and BCS Bowl hopes alive when it treks to Camp Randall Stadium to battle the Badgers.
The Hawkeyes followed up a lackluster 24-21 home win over Arkansas State with last week’s narrow 30-28 Big Ten win over Michigan, falling short as an eight-point home chalk despite forcing five Wolverine turnovers. Iowa is 6-0 for the first time since 1985 and has won 10 in a row going back to last year – its longest such streak since 1923. However, Kirk Ferentz’s squad has failed to cash in the last two after going 5-0 ATS in the previous five. Also, five of the team’s victories during the win streak have come by a total of 12 points.
Wisconsin tasted defeat for the first time in 2009 last Saturday, falling 31-13 at Ohio State as a 16-point road underdog. The Badgers actually dominated the Buckeyes from a statistical standpoint, finishing with a 368 total yards and 22 first downs and allowing just 184 yards and eight first downs, but QB Scott Tolzien had two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown), and Wisconsin also allowed a kickoff return for a score.
The Hawkeyes crushed Wisconsin 38-16 as a 5½-point home favorite last season, improving to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa has cashed in three straight trips to Camp Randall.
Despite failing to get the money the last two weeks, Iowa remains on positive ATS runs of 4-0 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog (4-1 as a road ‘dog) and 10-3 when playing on artificial turf. The Badgers have covered in five straight games as a favorite of three points or fewer and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big Ten contests, but they’re just 3-6 ATS in their last nine in Madison and 1-4 ATS in their last five against opponents with a winning record.
The over is 5-2-1 in Iowa’s last eight in Big Ten play and 3-0-1 in its last four October contests, but otherwise the Hawkeyes are on “under” stretches of 19-9-2 overall, 20-5-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 as an underdog and 18-7-1 as a road pup. However, it’s been all “overs” for Wisconsin lately, including 3-1 overall, 3-1 at home, 5-1 as a favorite (all at home) and 4-1 in Big Ten action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) Ohio State (5-1 SU and ATS) at Purdue (1-5, 3-3 ATS)
The Buckeyes will try to hand Purdue a sixth straight loss when these two Big Ten rivals square off at Ross Ade Stadium.
Ohio State has won four straight in comfortable fashion, with last week’s 31-13 win at home over Wisconsin as a 14½-point chalk being the Buckeyes closest game since a Week 2 home loss to USC. The defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns and they benefited from a 96-yard kickoff return to beat the Badgers, despite getting outgained 368-184 and managing just eight first downs.
The Buckeyes offense is putting up 29.7 points a game and it has scored between 30 and 38 points in all but one game this season (the 18-15 loss to USC). QB Terrelle Pryor has been shaky all season from a passing standpoint, though, throwing for just 941 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. Pryor has rushed for 334 yards (5.1 per carry) and three TDs.
Purdue opened the season with a 52-31 romp over Toledo, cashing as a 10-point home chalk, but nothing has gone well since then, losing five straight (2-3 ATS). That includes last week’s 35-20 setback at Minnesota as a three-point pup, with the Boilermakers finishing with edges of 402-281 in total yards and 23-14 in first downs, but they had three turnovers and had a blocked punt returned for a score. Purdue, which has lost 19 straight games to ranked opponents, has managed just 21, 21, 21 and 20 points in its last four contests, even though QB Joey Elliott is having a fine senior season (1,575 yards, 12 TDs, nine INTs).
Ohio State has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings and eight of the last 10, but Purdue has cashed a ticket in four of the last five, including last year when the Buckeyes won 16-3 as an 18½ point home favorite. The last time this game was at Purdue, Ohio State scored a 23-7 win and cashed as a seven-point favorite, and the chalk has cashed in seven of the last 10.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 35-17 overall, 25-8 in Big Ten action, 10-3 in October, 10-2 on the road, 20-6 on the road in conference (8-0 last eight), 17-4 as a road favorite and 7-0 following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Purdue is on nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 6-19-1 in October, 11-24-1 against winning teams and 10-22-1 after a straight-up loss, but the Boilers have covered in both games as an underdog this season.
The “under” has been the play recently for Ohio State, including, 4-0-1 overall, 4-1-1 in October, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover and 9-2 against teams with losing records. Purdue is also on several “under” streaks, including 33-16-2 at home, 38-17 in Big Ten contests, 10-0-1 as a home underdog, 20-7 in October and 25-10 following a SU loss. Also, the “under” is a perfect 5-0 the last five years in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at (14) Penn State (5-1, 1-4 ATS)
The Gophers bring the Big Ten’s lowest-rated offense into Happy Valley for a matchup with Penn State and the conference’s top-ranked defense.
Minnesota has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last five contests, but the Gophers are coming off a 35-20 win over Purdue, easily cashing as a three-point home favorite despite producing just 281 total yards and 14 first downs. In its lone conference road test this season, Minnesota beat Northwestern 35-24 as a one-point ‘dog on Sept. 26. Even though the Gophers have topped the 20-point mark in every game, they have trailed in every game this season and have been outgained in every contest except the opener at Syracuse. In fact, Purdue, Wisconsin and Cal all outgained the Gophers by more than 120 yards.
The Nittany Lions have the eighth-ranked defense in the country and tops in the conference, allowing just 10.2 points and 255.7 yards per contest. Four of their six opponents have failed to get more than seven points, and they are coming off last week’s 52-3 dismantling of Division I-AA Eastern Illinois in an unlined contest. However, in Penn State’s lone conference home game, it fell 21-10 to Iowa as a 9½-point underdog.
These teams last met in 2006 and played an overtime thriller in Minnesota, with the Nittany Lions getting the 28-27 win, pushing as a one-point chalk. They Lions have won two straight in this series (1-0-1 ATS) after dropping the previous four (1-3 ATS) dating back to 1999. The Golden Gophers are 5-2-1 ATS, all as an underdog, in the last eight meetings, including outright upsets in Happy Valley in 1999 (24-23) and 2003 (20-14).
Minnesota is on ATS slides of 2-5 against winning teams and 0-4 following a spread-cover, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big Ten games, 4-1 in October, 6-1 as a road ‘dog and 4-0 as a road ‘dog of more than 10 points. Penn State has gotten the cash in five of six October contests, but the Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six lined contests overall and 0-4 ATS at home this season (all as a favorite).
The Gophers are on several “over” runs, including 40-17-1 against winning teams, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 in conference play, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and Penn State has stayed below the total in all four home games this season. The “over” was the play when Penn State won the last two clashes in this series, but the “under” cashed in the previous three, all Minnesota SU wins.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
(22) South Carolina (5-1, 4-1 ATS) at (2) Alabama (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The Gamecocks are looking for their fifth straight victory, but it’ll be a tough chore as they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to face undefeated Alabama, the nation’s second-ranked team, in an SEC clash.
South Carolina survived a scare at home last week, edging Kentucky 28-26 but failing to cash as a nine-point favorite. After struggling to score in a 7-3 season-opening victory at N.C. State, the Gamecocks have scored 28 points or more in four of their last five (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS). Leading the offensive surge has been QB Stephen Garcia, who is finally living up to his hype, having completed 61 percent of his throws for 1,268 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions.
Alabama moved ahead of Texas in the latest rankings after a dominating 22-3 road win over Mississippi last week as a 4½-point favorite, intercepting Jevan Snead four times and holding the Rebels to 72 yards on the ground. The nation’s second-ranked defense has held all but one of its last four opponents to seven points or less (4-0 ATS), and the Crimson Tide have produced 22 points or more in every game this season.
These teams haven’t met since 2005 when Alabama went to South Carolina and scored a 37-14 win as a two-point chalk. The teams have split the four meetings this decade with the Crimson Tide holding the 3-1 ATS edge.
The ‘Cocks are just 2-6 ATS in October and 1-4 ATS against winning teams, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 13-6 on the road, 3-0 as an underdog this season, 4-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points and 9-4 as a road pup. On the other side, it’s a plethora of positive ATS streaks for Alabama, including 6-2 at home, 7-1 in SEC contests, 7-2 following a spread-cover, 6-2 as a home favorite and 8-1 on grass.
South Carolina has gone “over” the posted total in four of five overall, six of eight on the road, five of six as a road ‘dog and four of five October contests. The Crimson Tide have gone “over” the total in four of five at home and five of seven overall, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 after a spread-cover, 4-1 in October and 5-1 in SEC battles. In the four meetings between these two this decade, the “over” is 3-1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and OVER
California (3-2, 2-2 ATS) at UCLA (3-2 SU and ATS)
Both the Golden Bears and Bruins come into this Pac-10 matchup in Pasadena, Calif., looking to snap two-game losing streaks and regain the offensive firepower that has eluded them the last two games.
California has had a couple weeks off since USC went to Berkeley and rolled to a 30-3 win as 4½-point favorites. After scoring 146 points in the first three games of the season (2-0 ATS), Cal has managed just two field goals in getting outscored 72-6 in its last two, including a 42-3 blowout loss at Oregon as a 5½-point road favorite.
UCLA gave up three touchdowns in the first four minutes of the second half last week against Oregon, falling 24-10 as a 3½-point home underdog. The Bruins have been outscored 48-26 in the last two games and have failed to reach 20 points in three of their five contests this year. Freshman starting QB Kevin Prince returned to the UCLA lineup last week, but was ineffective, throwing for just 85 yards with no touchdowns, one interception that was returned for a touchdown followed immediately by a lost fumble that led to another score. The Bruins, who also allowed a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD to start the second half, had just 211 total yards against Oregon.
The home team has won nine straight in this rivalry with UCLA holding the 5-3-1 ATS edge during this stretch, including cashing in four of the last five as an underdog. Last year in Berkeley, Cal scored a 41-20 victory, narrowly cashing as an 18-point favorite. The Bears have lost three straight at the Rose Bowl and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Pasadena, and the underdog is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 series meetings.
Cal is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 6-2 in its last eight as a favorite, but it is on several negative ATS trends, including 4-11 on the road, 2-8 as a road chalk, 2-6 in October and 1-4 against winning teams. UCLA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Pac-10 games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, but the Bruins are on positive pointspread runs of 25-9-1 at home since 2004, 21-9 as an underdog, 17-6 as a home ‘dog (10-3 last 13 as a home pup), 20-7 after a SU defeat, 15-6 after a non-cover, 16-6 against winning teams, 12-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 7-0 at home following a double-digit home loss.
The Golden Bears are on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-1 on grass. UCLA is on a bevy of “under” runs that include 18-7-1 overall, 18-6 at home, 21-7-1 in Pac-10 contests, 10-1 after a SU loss, 7-1-1 in October games and 15-5-1 as an underdog. Conversely, the over has been the play in four of the last five years in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
Texas Tech (4-2, 3-2 ATS) at (15) Nebraska (4-1, 5-0 ATS)
Texas Tech shoots for its third straight win overall and its fourth consecutive win over the Cornhuskers when it invades Memorial Stadium for a Big 12 battle.
The Red Raiders rebounded from consecutive narrow road losses at Texas (34-24) and Houston (29-28) with a pair of home blowouts the last two weeks. First, Texas Tech drubbed New Mexico 48-28, falling short as a 34-point chalk, then pummeled Kansas State last week 66-14 as a 16½-point favorite. Against the Wildcats, Texas Tech jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead and finished with 739 total yards while surrendering just 284. QB Steve Sheffield, making his first-ever start in place of Taylor Potts, went 33-for-41 for 490 yards with seven TD passes and one INT.
Sheffield is expected to start today as Potts remains questionable with an injury.
Nebraska woke up just in time at rain-soaked Missouri 10 days ago, scoring 27 points in the fourth quarter to overcome a 12-0 deficit and win 27-12 as a 3½-point road favorite. The Cornhuskers are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in Big 12 play) and they’ve outgained all nine squads, including six by more than 110 yards. The only SU defeat during this nine-game stretch came at Virginia Tech on Sept. 19, when Nebraska allowed an 83-yard, four-play drive in the final 90 seconds to turn a 15-10 win into a 16-15 defeat.
The Red Raiders have had Nebraska’s number in the last three meetings, winning 70-10 in 2004, 34-31 in 2005 and 37-31 in overtime last year. However, the Huskers got the cash in the last two clashes, including covering easily as a 20½-point road underdog in last season’s overtime contest, in which Nebraska had a 471-421 yardage edge and held the ball for more than 40 of the 60 minutes. The underdog is on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry.
Texas Tech is on ATS upticks of 6-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in Big 12 play and 4-1 as a road underdog of more than 10 points. However, it is 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of any price and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Nebraska carries ATS trends of 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-0 against winning teams and 18-3-1 at home against opponents with a winning road mark.
The high-scoring Red Raiders are on “over” runs of 9-3 overall, 6-2 in conference, 4-0 in October, 35-16 after a SU win and 27-10 after a spread-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Nebraska’s last five league contests, but otherwise the Huskers are on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in October and 5-2 as a double-digit favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA
Missouri (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (16) Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-2-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State will take the field without suspended star WR Dez Bryant for the second straight week when it hosts the Tigers in a Big 12 battle.
Missouri entered the fourth quarter with a 12-0 lead over Nebraska last Thursday, then everything fell apart as turnovers and defensive mistakes led to 27 unanswered points by the Huskers, with the Tigers suffering their first defeat of the season and failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. Missouri, which entered the contest averaging 36.8 points and 453 yards per game, managed just 225 total yards on a rain-soaked field. Also, QB Blaine Gabbard (17-for-43, 134 yards, no TDs, two INTs) injured his leg early but stayed in the game and threw his first two picks of the season after passing for 1,161 yards and 11 TDs in the first four games.
With Bryant sitting out after lying to NCAA investigators, the Cowboys struggled to a 36-31 win over Texas A&M last week, pushing as a five-point road favorite. QB Zac Robinson (14-for-25, 279 yards, two TDs, one INT) had a strong game as Oklahoma State piled up 448 yards (169 rushing) while the defense yielded 382 yards (109 rushing). The Cowboys have won three in a row (0-1-1 ATS) since a shocking 45-35 loss to Houston as a 15½-point home favorite on Sept. 12.
Oklahoma State went to Columbia last October and scored a surprising 28-23 win as a 14-point road underdog. The visitor is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four battles between these schools since 2001, and the ‘dog has cashed in six of the last nine meetings (not including one pick-em contest). Despite last year’s upset loss, the Tigers are still 8-4 SU and ATS in the past 12 against Oklahoma State, with the four losses being by a combined 14 points.
Mizzou is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games, 16-7 ATS in its last 23 after a non-cover and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after a double-digit home loss. On the downside, the Tigers are in ATS funks of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-5 in Big 12 play and 0-5 against winning teams.
Oklahoma State is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games and is on ATS upticks of 33-16-2 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk and 4-0-1 in October. However, the Pokes are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight overall, 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big 12 contests.
The Tigers’ last five lined games have stayed under the total, but otherwise they’re on “over” surges of 10-4 on the road, 11-5 as an underdog and 9-3 as a road pup. It’s been all “overs” lately for OSU, including 35-16 at home, 18-7 as a home favorite, 4-1 in league action and 5-0 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas (4-1, 2-2 ATS) at (1) Florida (5-0, 3-1 ATS)
Fresh off a huge SEC road win at LSU, Florida returns to The Swamp looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak while also continuing its dominance of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks dealt Auburn its first loss of the season last week, rolling to a 44-23 win as a 2½-point home underdog, which came on the heels of a 47-19 rout at Texas A&M as a two-point favorite. Against 17th-ranked Auburn, Arkansas raced out to a 34-3 lead midway through the third quarter and finished with 495 yards while holding the Tigers to 375. QB Ryan Mallet (24-for-37, 274, 2 TDs, 1 INT) continued his stellar season and has now thrown for 1,422 yards on the season with a 13-3 TD-to-INT ratio.
Tim Tebow returned from a concussion and helped lead the Gators to a 13-3 win at LSU last week, barely covering as a 9½-point road favorite. Tebow was rather pedestrian statistically (11-for-16, 134 yards, one TD, one INT, 38 rushing yards on 17 carries), but he did account for the game’s only touchdown and guided a ball-control offense that had possession for 36½ minutes. The defense continued to shine, holding LSU to a field goal, 162 total yards, 11 first downs and 1-for-9 on third downs.
Florida has now won 15 in a row, all by double digits, and it is 12-1 ATS in lined action during this stretch. Also, the Gators’ defense has surrendered just 32 points and two touchdowns – both meaningless second-half scores – this season. Going back to last year’s 24-14 national championship game victory over Oklahoma, Florida has given up 14, 3, 6, 13, 7 and 3 points in its last six games.
The Gators went to Arkansas last season and crushed the Razorbacks 38-7, scoring three TDs in the final 12 minutes to cover the 26½-point number. Florida has won and covered seven consecutive meetings with Arkansas in SEC play – going 6-0 ATS as a favorite – with four of the seven victories by 31 points or more.
The Razorbacks are on ATS runs of 6-2 as an underdog, 10-3 as a road pup in SEC games, 5-0 in October and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last five when catching double digits.
In addition to cashing in 12 of its last 13 lined contests, Florida is on a slew of positive pointspread rolls, including 25-6 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-5 in SEC action, 11-4 as a double-digit chalk (7-1 last eight when laying 10 or more), 4-0 in October and 9-1 when coming off a victory of 20 points or more.
The under is 9-4 in Arkansas’ last 13 October contests, but otherwise the team is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in conference and 5-1 after a SU win. The over is also 13-5 in Florida’s last 18 in The Swamp, but the Gators also carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in the SEC and 4-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
Jimmy Boyd
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Iowa +2.5
Iowa's defense gave up some rushing yards against Michigan's spread last week, but I don't expect the Hawks to give up much of anything on the ground to the Badgers. Iowa has struggled against spread looks in the past, but it has been very tough on more traditional offenses. Ohio State made QB Scott Tolzien beat them last week and he was not good enough, throwing two interceptions that were returned for scores and taking a season-high six sacks. I expect Iowa to follow the same game plan and Tolzien won't be able to deliver this week either. Wisconsin is 0-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 310 or less yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa.
Frank Jordan
LAA Angels vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
The Yankees won as the Angels played unangel like baseball committing 3 errors. The Yankees played small ball and scratched out a few runs here and there on their way to a series opening win 4-1. For Game 2 the Yankees are sending AJ and looking for a CC like performance. Burnett went 6 strong innings allowing just one run against Minnesota and is 1-0 in two starts against LA Angels this year. The Angels counter with Joe Saunders who didn't pitch in the ALDS due to the Angels sweeping the Red Sox, but was 1-0 in two starts against the Yankees. Look for another pitchers duel with a cleaner game despite the weather as the Yankees take a commanding 2-0 series lead out to the West coast. Play NY Yankees
Steve Merril
USC vs. Notre Dame
Play: USC -10
Notre Dame is an improved team this season, but they are still no where close to USC in terms of talent. The Trojans have dominated this series the past two years with easy 38-0 and 38-3 wins and it is doubtful that Notre Dame has suddenly closed the gap enough to compete today. Notre Dame has a solid offense, but they will now be facing an excellent USC defense that permits just 8.6 points per game and only 3.7 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 23.5 ppg and 5.1 yppl). USC has held the Irish to just 91 and 165 total yards in the past two meetings. The Trojans have a tendency to letdown against inferior opponents, but USC normally comes ready to play in big games.
John Ryan
California vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA 3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UCLA as they face California set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that UCLA will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 82% probability that UCLA will gain between 150 to 200 net passing yards. UCLA is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992. Cal is just 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. UCLA is a solid 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as a home underdog since 1992. HC Neuheisel is a great coach at stopping small losing streaks. Note that he is a strong 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-3 on the MONEY LINE for 90% winners since 1999. Play against a road team versus the money line that is a good offensive team scoring 5.6 to 6.2 YPP facing a team with a good defense allowing 4.2 to 4.8 YPP and after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game. Take UCLA
Rob Vinciletti
No Illinois vs. Toledo
Play: No Illinois -7
What we want to do is play against certain home dogs like Toledo,that are off a 12 or more point loss as a home favorite of -3.5 or more,if they have a .666 or less win percentage. These home dogs are just 4-21 ats since 1980. Toledo comes in off a bad blow out loss at home to Western Michigan. Northern Illinois looks like they may be one of the better team in the MAC conference this year. They already own a nice Big 10 road win at Purdue,and played Wisconsin real tough in a 28-20 road loss. They smoked Toledo last year 38-7 and appear to be a more talented club this year. Take the Northern Illinois Huskies as the system club play.
Tommy Gill
Arizona State -6
Washington has surprised a lot of Pac 10 teams this season and they are getting a lot more respect from a lot of handicappers. With such a young team though they are going to struggle on the road at different points of the season and I believe this is one of those spots. A big key to this game is that Arizona St. is getting their good kicker back for this game. ASU has dominated Washington the last 5 seasons winning by a 18 points a game. Look for ASU defense to dominate Washington in this game and control the clock and with Washington losing their road games by more than a touchdown this season. Normal sized play here on ASU.
THE PREZ
Illinois @ Indiana
PICK: Over 53.5
Expect Ron Zook and the Illini to make a statement on Saturday, and while the Illinois coaching staff has not announced if Juice Williams or Eddie McGee will start at quarterback this week against Indiana, the obvious answer is Williams. The Illini's only win this season is over FCS member Illinois State, the defense has been a disaster and a move to start McGee over Williams backfired in a HUGE way. All of that changes this week against a good Indiana team, but one that can't match the team speed of Illinois. It is time for Zook to open the playbook and let Williams do his thing, and a matchup against a porous Hoosier defense is just what the good doctor ordered.
It has been extremely painful to watch, what can only be described as stunningly unexplainable, the collapse for Williams, Illinois’ all-time leader in total offense who was benched last weekend after 38 straight starts. Williams’ 324 total yards per game led the Big Ten in total offense a year ago by nearly 80 yards. This season Williams is averaging 126 yards/game through the air and 37.0 yards rushing and has only three touchdowns. The Illini scored 55 against IU a year ago and Virginia was one of the nation’s most anemic offenses statistically last week before it scored 47 on the Hoosiers.
The Illini are 41-16 ATS when they score 28 or more points and the Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS when they allow 28 or more points, this over the last two seasons. Indiana loses by an average margin of 35 points in these scenarios and Illinois wins by nearly 21. In both situations the average final combined score exceeds 68 points.
Neither defense has much to offer in this contest, and the weather in Indiana on Saturday night is expected to be football-perfect. Make a play to the OVER and watch the points mount as quickly as the minutes on the game clock click away.
5* Play on the OVER
Dave Price
1 Unit on USC Trojans -10
USC has defeated the Irish by at least 20 points in each of the last 3 seasons, including a 35-point whooping last year. Notre Dame is improved, but not enough to make up that much ground. Notre Dame's defense is not good enough to keep the Trojans from covering this number, allowing 3 of its 5 opponents to score 30 or more points, while USC's defense has held 3 of its opponents to 6 or fewer points. Here's the clincher: Notre Dame is just 6-21 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 4.5 or less yards/play since 1992, losing by an average of 12.8 points to these teams. Take USC for 1 Unit.