Stephen Nover
Texas Tech +11 at NEBRASKA
Believe it or not, this game opened Nebraska as low as minus 5 1/2. Can the oddsmaker be so off this late in the season?
I'm not buying into that. The early steam on Nebraska has set up a nice value play on the Red Raiders. They certainly are live for the backdoor cover with their high-powered offense and catching double-digits.
One reason for the big line move is that backup quarterback Steven Sheffield is expected to get the start. Starting quarterback Tyler Potts missed last week's Texas Tech game because of a concussion. Potts practiced this week and is making the trip to Lincoln.
But Sheffield is expected to start. I have no problem with that. Texas Tech's spread offense is a system style of offense. Sheffield actually has better numbers than Potts operating the offense. He's completed 53-of-70 passes (75.7 percent) for 780 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception. His average completion yardage is 11.1 yards compared to Potts' 7.7 yards per pass completion. Potts had a 13-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Texas Tech pasted Kansas State, 66-14, last week behind Sheffield. The Red Raiders are going to have three injured starters back who missed the Kansas State game - center Shawn Byrnes, safety Cody Davis and defensive end Daniel Howard.
Nebraska has beaten three Sun Belt teams this season, lost at Virginia Tech and defeated Missouri on the road in a driving rain, which slowed down the Tigers' spread offense. The Cornhuskers traditionally have struggled against strong spread offenses such as what Texas Tech runs.
The Red Raiders have defeated the Cornhuskers in their past three meetings going back to 2004, including last year 37-31 in overtime. Texas Tech has averaged 47 points during these three victories.
Texas Tech has hung with Texas on the road this season covering easily in a 34-24 loss as a 19 1/2-point 'dog. The Red Raiders out-gained the Longhorns, 414-340, held the ball longer and had more first downs.
3♦ TEXAS TECH
Jeff Benton
BYU -17 at San Diego St.
For Saturday’s freebie in college football, I’m laying the chalk with BYU at San Diego State.
There are only two reasons why the 18th-ranked Cougars aren’t laying north of three touchdowns in this game: Because they’re playing on the road for the second straight week and they’re in a potential look-ahead spot, with a crucial conference home game against 12th-ranked TCU on deck. Both are legitimate concerns (the latter way more so than the former), but in my mind, neither override the fact that the talent gap separating these two longtime rivals is as wide as the distance between Provo, Utah, and San Diego.
BYU is a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the season, and while the one defeat was a bad one (54-28 at home to Florida State), the five victories were all impressive. The Cougars beat No. 3-ranked Oklahoma on a not-so-neutral field in Dallas in Week 1, destroyed Tulane 54-3 on the road the next week, and they’ve followed up the Florida State loss with three double-digit blowouts of Colorado State (42-23 at home, with the score 21-0 after the first quarter); Utah State (35-17 at home, and they gave up a TD with 2 seconds left to blow the spread-cover); and, last week, UNLV (59-21 in Las Vegas, and BYU finished with 611 yards of offense).
Trust me when I tell you that aside from Tulane and (maybe … maybe) Utah State, San Diego State is the least-talented team the Cougars have faced this year. The Aztecs’ two wins this year came against New Mexico State and Division I-AA Southern Utah, and the fact SDSU was favored by 17½ points over New Mexico State tells you how awful New Mexico State … and yet the Aztecs still failed to cover. Take out those two wins, and San Diego State has just two other victories since the start of last year (UNLV and Idaho, and Idaho avenged that defeat last month).
San Diego State did cover in Provo last year, but that was as a 36½-point underdog (and BYU still cruised 41-12). Today’s pointspread is half of what last year’s was. Fact is, BYU has won three straight in this rivalry by margins of 29, 21 and 30 points, and the Cougars are 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the last eight meetings, with an average victory margin of 26 points. In fact, in six of their last seven wins against SDSU, the Cougs have given up a TOTAL of 41 points. Forget about the look-ahead, this is a big-time mismatch here and BYU’s rolling by at least 24 points.
7♦ BYU
Scott Delaney
This week I am taking Central Michigan to get it done over Western Michigan.
Looking back to Sept. 5, I'm surprised the Chippewas didn't beat Arizona. So instead of being undefeated at 6-0, Central Michigan comes in at 5-1 after five solid wins, including one at Michigan State.
And the Chipps can credit Dan LeFevour for their offensive success to this point, as he's putting up Heisman-like numbers.
This is a huge test for him too, as it'll be the last time he takes on rival-WMU in his collegiate career. There will be some jitters, I get that. But with his proven track record, consistency, and eagerness to win, I think we're going to see one of his best games against a rather bleak defense.
Western Michigan has the 60th-ranked passing D, the 102nd Rushing defense and 97th ranked defense overall.
This is crunch time for LeFevour, as the Chipps have two road games (next week they're at Bowling Green) before heading to Boston College for a big non-conference showdown.
Don't be surprised if the Chipps roll into that contest on Halloweed with a wealth of momentum and LeFevour steals the show to enter the Heisman race.
But let's not jump too far ahead; play the Chipps in this one.
1♦ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Tony Weston
I delivered yesterday with Pittsburgh a day after delivering with Cincinnati. I’m making it three straight college football Comp Play Winners as I’m taking Arkansas on the road at Florida.
The Gators come into this game having had their share of struggles against the SEC this season, despite being perfect SU.
Florida’s first conference game against Tennessee saw the Gators installed as a 30-point favorite against the Volunteers. But in that game the Gators could only pull out a 23-13 victory. The team took advantage of horrible quarterbacking by Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton. And last week against LSU, the Gators got away with a non-call on the only touchdown of the game, an offensive pass interference that was never called.
Also, in three games against the SEC, the Gators have only won by an average of 18 points per game. In their lone SEC home game, Florida only beat the Volunteers by 10.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has looked impressive the last two weeks, destroying Texas A&M 47-19 and Auburn 44-23 last week as a 1 1/2 point underdog.
In this series, the Gators have only beaten the Razorbacks by an average of 15.2 points per game. And in their two meetings in Gainesville, Florida has only beaten Arkansas by an average of 12.5 points per game, including a 10-point victory in their last meeting in the Swamp in 2006, as Florida won 38-28 as a 3-point favorite.
The Gators are laying 25 points in this one, depending on where you’re playing this, and will get a battle out of the Razorbacks. Take the points and take Arkansas on the road.
3♦ ARKANSAS
Steve Duemig
Navy -7 at SMU
Navy does not fear playing on the road and their punishing ground attack should pummel a very weak SMU defense and they are also smart enough to figure out the tactical air attack of the air force errrrr SMU offense.
Bob Balfe
Iowa State -1 over Baylor
Baylor is not that good of a football team without injured QB Robert Griffith. The whole offense was designed around him and there is no way they can match the Iowa State point total without him. Iowa was one play away from beating Kansas on the road last week. This team has matured a lot from that game and should beat up on Baylor. Take Iowa State.