Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 18

DUNKEL INDEX

NHL

Tampa Bay at Vancouver
The Lightning head to Vancouver tonight to face a Canucks team that is coming off a 2-0 win at Edmonton last night and is 1-7 in its last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. Tampa Bay is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110)

Game 1-2: San Jose at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.312; New Jersey 12.709
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-105); Under

Game 3-4: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 13.419; Pittsburgh 12.338
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+140); Over

Game 5-6: Florida at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.478; Washington 11.586
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-225); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+185); Over

Game 7-8: Boston at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.517; Buffalo 11.012
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-215); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-215); Over

Game 9-10: Colorado at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.674; Montreal 11.519
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 11-12: Columbus at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.528; Ottawa 12.297
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-130); Under

Game 13-14: Toronto at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.709; Detroit 11.616
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Over

Game 15-16: Philadelphia at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.312; Dallas 12.897
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-165); Over

Game 17-18: Nashville at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 13.986; Chicago 12.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+170); Under

Game 19-20: St. Louis at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.404; Arizona 12.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over

Game 21-22: Tampa Bay at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.816; Vancouver 11.430
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Over

CFL

Calgary at Winnipeg
The Stampeders head to Winnipeg tonight and come into the contest with a 4-0-1 ATS record in their last 5 games versus the Blue Bombers. Calgary is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2)

Game 493-494: Montreal at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 116.738; Toronto 118.168
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Toronto by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+4 1/2); Over

Game 495-496: Calgary at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 117.057; Winnipeg 103.752
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 13 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Calgary by 8 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-8 1/2); Over

Sleepyj

Notre Dame +11.5

This number will only go down...Way to many points..way to many...My numbers have say -8 FSU...That's just a number..The eye test tells me..ND is very very live...I would not be shocked to see FSU lose this game one bit..I would grab this at 11.5 right now..10.5..and stop at -10...I would not be shocked to see this close in the -9 to -7 range...great value IMO.

Nevada +11

BYU was lucky to get a close loss last week...UCF miscues helped that more than anything..They are short handed..Im not a fan of the defense right now..BYU is short handed and they just are not that good...Nevada is a quality club..They have played a tough schedule..Nevada will be looking to knock this BYU team of..They will be live here coming off a loss..BYU has Boise St on deck next week...This is to many points here..Grab +11 id take up to +9.5.

Alex Smart

Hawaii vs. San Diego State
Play: Hawaii +9½

Hawaii football took a nose dive last season, as is evident by a 1-11 campaign and 0-8 record in the MWC. Coach Norm Chow has suffered numerous family instabilities and losses this season, and injuries have taken their toll on the team. But perseverance seems to be the key word and thought process with this coach and team, as they finally notched a 38-28 come from behind victory vs Wyoming last week snapping their conference losing streak. Can they continue to move forward? Im betting yes, despite of injuries. I like the Warriors offensive power formations, and with back Joseph Iosefa expected to play this week and formerly benched QB Ikaika Woolsey coming off the bench to lead his team to victory last time out , a new optimism surrounds this team which gives hope to the future and more importantly their chances to cover for us this week vs a inconsistent SDSU. I know Defense has been nightmarish in the past , but now the Warriors have shown they have a bend and dont break group on board now , as is evident by having stopped 28 percent of third-down conversion attempts, ranking them 10th in the country. Good energy surrounds this team, and with that said, getting points, seems like a prudent investment, via a minimal outlay.

Alex Smart's Featured Package

Brad Diamond

Rutgers vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -19

The recharged Buckeyes are coming off a week of rest and now have Rutgers in Columbus. Ohio State is 4-1 SU & ATS after crushing Maryland 52-24 (College Park) on October 4th. In that game OSU posted a 233 yard advantage on offense a 6.9 yard per play edge. Helping the Bucks were 4 interceptions which often afforded solid field position. Last weekend was the second recorded off date this season (9/20) for Ohio St.. The following week the Buckeyes coasted 50-28 over Cincinnati. Ohio State is now 7-0 SU off a bye winning by 20 points per game dating back to the 2008 season. When we talk about defensive stalwarts, Stanford comes to mind ranked #1 allowing only 238 yards per game to opposing offenses. Ohio State too, is special ranked #2 holding the opposition to 314 yards per meeting. On offense the Bucks show #57 scoring 44.6 points per game, averaging 527 yards per game. OSU is 5-2 ATS off a bye week, while going 4-1 ATS in October.

Rutgers is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS after defeating Michigan 26-24 on October 4th, showing here after a bye week. The five wins for the upstart Scarlet Knights were against Washington State, Howard (FCS), Navy, Tulane and Michigan. In the last outing QB Nova (23-40,402) had a huge day vs. the porous Big Blue secondary (Nova: 78.2 QBR ranked #14 in the country). Overall Rutgers had a 140 yard advantage on offense, but just 74 yards on the ground. On offense (#64) the Scarlet Knights are averaging 29.5 points per and 427 yards per game. Defensively, the Knights are #64 limiting the opponents to 21.7 per game (397 yards). Rutgers is 1-6 SU against teams in the AP top twenty-five and 1-4 ATS in the month of October. There is no tenuous look angle here, so expect the TALENT ADVANTAGE for OSU to take over in the second-half in a 48-24 win (FIRST MEETING).

Ben Burns

Virginia vs. Duke
Play: Duke -2½

While the competition has been a little on the weak side,

Duke has been destroying teams here at home. Indeed, in three games here, the Devils are 3-0 SU/ATS, winning by a combined score of 140-29. That’s an average score of 46.7 to 9.7.

While the Cavs are 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3, the Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS the last six times that they played when the game fell in that range.

The Devils won 35-22 at Virginia last season and they hammered the Cavs 42-17 in the game here at Duke in 2012. In both cases, the pointspread was less than a field goal. Assuming this number stays below that mark, consider backing the home team.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Matt Fargo

Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Kansas State

We will take a shot on Kansas St. which has a good shot at pulling off the outright upset. The Wildcats have bounced back from their loss against Auburn with two straight blowout victories. While they were outgained by Auburn by just 74 total yards, in their four victories, the Wildcats have outgained their opponents by at least 152 yards each time out. Obviously, this presents a very tough test but this is one team that will not be intimidated on the road. Oklahoma is one of many teams that were expected to make a run at the playoff but have suffered a damaging loss. It will be hard for the Sooners to get back into the mix and even harder knowing they are not playing well. They have been outgained in three straight games including last week against Texas as their five-point win over the Longhorns was good but they fact they were outgained by 250 yards in the process is not. Kansas St. has covered 11 of its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Wildcats are 12-3 ATS under head coach Bill Snyder as a road underdog exemplifying the non-intimidation on the road. The road team has covered five straight meetings in this series and I expect that to continue here.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

CLEMSON AT BOSTON COLLEGE
PLAY: BOSTON COLLEGE +5

This opinion certainly can’t be classified as a value play, as the line has already been hit thanks to the Clemson injury information. But I’m still of the belief Boston College is worth taking a long look at in this battle at Chestnut Hill.

BC is making some real noise in Steve Addazio’s second year the helm of the Eagles. This is definitely a program that’s back on the rise. Addazio, who previously did some good work at Temple, is starting to earn some notice nationally thanks to the recent play of the Eagles, and a win here would be huge for Boston College.

BC has not yet mastered the art of consistency, but I think it’s now a virtual given that they can play. No doubt the Eagles would love a couple of mulligans for the losses to Pittsburgh and Colorado State. But that hammering of USC was mighty impressive and the Eagles absolutely crushed North Carolina State last week. The one thing that was really noticeable in each of those wins was the physicality of this football team. They have not shown any tendency to pull back when they get a lead. Make no mistake, I’m very biased when it comes to the style of play we get from Boston College. I like teams that pound it on the ground and won’t allow their opponents to do the same. BC’s whole mindset is to win in the trenches, and that formula is working very well for them so far this season.

Clemson is likely going to be determined to show they can function at a high level without injured QB Deshaun Watson. But I’ve got substantial doubts that’s possible, as there’s a major difference in the talent level between Watson and Cole Stoudt. I can see the latter as a reasonable game manager, but he’s simply not nearly as explosive as Watson.

The key to this game is likely going to be the Clemson defense. The Tigers got run over by Georgis in the season opener, but have since really toughened up against the run. If they can force Boston College QB Tyler Murphy to throw the ball more often than is desired, the Tigers will be in great shape here. But if that BC overland attack gets cranked up, Clemson’s offense will be spending more time than they want on the sidelines.

Clemson is saying all the right things as they approach this battle. But I’m not sold that’s really the case. It’s not that the Tigers have nothing to play for, but it’s also true that there’s now a ceiling on what they can accomplish this season, particularly with Watson now merely a spectator.

Don’t overlook the revenge motive here. A much stronger Clemson entry was given fits last season by a considerably lesser BC squad. The Tigers came perilously close to getting stunned by the Eagles in Death Valley last year, with BC actually leading onto the fourth quarter of that affair. Clemson eventually prevailed on a fairly short drive followed by a fumble return for six that put the game away. But Boston College have what at the time was the $3 rated team in the polls a huge scare and the Eagles will not be short on confidence here.

This game appeals to me on some key stats as well as what I believe will be the mental aspect of the game. The betting line is no longer ideal, but it’s not terrible either. I’ll opt for Boston College to give the Tigers all they want and more, and I’ll side with the Eagles in the home dog role.

Red Dog Sports

Virginia vs. Duke
Play: Duke -2½

Duke is 4-1 with a nice road win at Georgia Tech this past week. They are well coached by David Cutcliffe and led by senior QB Anthony Boone. Duke won 35-22 at Virginia last season. UVA has a nice home win vs. Louisville and managed a backdoor cover at BYU but the Cougars were huge favorites in that game. The Cavalier's defense is decent but their quarterbacks have been inconsistent. RB Parks gets the job done and his running is one of the keys to the UVA attack. I think we see Duke win by 7 to 10 points and cover on Saturday.

EZWINNERS

Northwestern +7

This is a big revenge game for Northwestern who lost to these Huskers last season in Nebraska on a Hail Mary. If the Wildcat defense can do a decent job on Husker running back Ameer Abdullah, which I expect them to do, Northwestern will have a chance at the upset. Nebraska will want to try to establish the run, but their offensive line is still an area of concern. Last week the Wildcat defense held Minnesota running back David Cobb to under 100 yards for the game. Coming into that game Cobb was averaging over 144 yards per game and I expect Northwestern's defense to have another strong effort in this game. I like Northwestern to get it done in their homecoming game. Take the points.

Arkansas +4

Georgia is coming off of a huge shutout win over Missouri last week in their first game without their suspended star running back Todd Gurley. The players dedicated the game to Gurley and as teams often do in their first game without their star they rose to the occasion in a big way. Freshmen running back Nick Chubb rushed for 143 yards and the Bulldogs defense forced Missouri into five turnovers. Now the Bulldogs must take to the road for the second straight week as a more then a field goal favorite against an ever improving Arkansas team. The Hogs are 0-3 in SEC play, but in their last two games lost in overtime against A&M and by one point to Alabama. The Arkansas defense held ‘Bama to just ten first downs. Hogs quarterback Brandon Allen is also playing well to compliment the bruising running game. Take the points.

Harry Bondi

GEORGIA TECH (-2.5) over North Carolina

The Tar Heels got their first cover in six games this season last week in a thrilling 50-43 loss to Notre Dame as a 17-point underdog. But we can’t see them having much left in the tank here after that “empty your bucket” type of effort. What’s more, this is simply a bad match-up as NC allows 194 yards per game on the ground and now face a tricky Yellow Jackets offense that’s averaging nearly 300 yards rushing a game. Lay the short number.

Soccer Authority

Leicester City vs. Newcastle
Pick: Over

Leicester play host to Newcastle in a crunch game for the magpies whi are under huge pressure!

Alan Pardews men have been playing horribly this season, but they'll take some pride from their recent 2-2 draw away at Swansea.

Leicster is proving a tough place for any team to win at, and they remain unbeaten in 4 home games!

If there's olne thing we've seen from Leicester's home games is that they tend to be open, free flowing games with plenty of scoring opportunities.

3 of Leicesters last 4 home games have seen over 2.5 goals scored and with this Newcastle side desperate for a win here I'm expecting both sides to have a free flowing shoot out here!

Newcastle haven't lacked goals away from home either this season, having scored 5 in their last 2 away games!

This is all set up for goals galore here! Get involved and jump on over 2.5 goals!!

Ray Monohan

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green
Play: Bowling Green -2

The Falcons have traded defense for offense this season. They are the top scoring team in the MAC but at the same time nobody has given up more points. They are also one of 3 undefeated teams in MAC play and this one is big given the strength Akron so far. Western Michigan is MAC average and the Falcons will take care of business at home. It might be wacky but they will get it done. They only have to win by a FG.

Tony Stoffo

Syracuse vs. Wake Forest
Play: Under 42.5

Even though the odds makers have posted an extremely low total here I have to make a release on the under as Syracuse is now down to their third string quarterback which is a true freshmen - while the Demon Deacons offense has in their last 2 games a total of only 225 offensive yards. Under is 17-4 in Orange last 21 games following a bye week. Under is 7-0 in Demon Deacons last 7 games in October. Under is 7-1 in Demon Deacons last 8 home games. Under is 8-2 in Demon Deacons last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. So let's not be scared away from this total and send it in on the under in this spot.

Joe Gavazzi

West Virginia +8

CFB history buffs will remember that these two teams have combined for 248 points in their previous 2 meetings. Based on last week's momentum, it would be no surprise if those kind of shootout numbers continue. Last week, WVU rallied from 14 down for a 37-34 win at TTRR. In that game, the Mounties ran and passed for 249 or more yards. Baylor had an even greater miracle comeback in a 61-58 victory against TCU. In that contest, Baylor trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter. For the game, Baylor amassed 78 2 yards. Part of the Bears' problem was allowing kickoff and interception returns for TDs. The rumor is untrue that the Baylor training staff has spent the better part of the week reattaching the right arm of Bears' QB Petty, who passed for over 500 yards and 6 TDs last week. Very tough for the Bears to get up for this contest after last week's comeback, knowing they won this game 73-42 last year. Bears just 3-8 ATS as road chalk, while WVU QB Trickett now lighting it up through the airways.