Wunderdog
Southern Miss @ North Texas
Pick: Southern Miss +9.5
The glory days and a long consecutive Bowl streak went out the door when Coach Larry Fedora moved on. Southern Miss has endured some trying times to say the least. The better news is here we are through six games and the Golden Eagles have already won two games - more than they accomplished the previous two seasons. They have four losses, but Alabama and Miss State are excusable. They are certainly a much improved team, and came within 6 points in their last game at Middle Tennessee of getting to .500. North Texas has two wins as well, but one vs. Nichols State, and the other came vs. SMU who went scoreless for 11 quarters this season already. Their four losses have all been by 3 TDs or more, after being 1-23 the last two years, and Southern Miss is vastly improved, but no one wants to touch them. North Texas is right within their grasp, and taking 10 or so points on the road makes them an under-the-radar live dog here. Grab the points on Southern Miss in this one.
Freddy Wills
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Kansas State +7
Kansas State is very much flying under the radar here and could easily be 5-0 except for their heartbreaking loss at home to Auburn. Kansas State is off a bye here 5-1 ATS the last two years off byes as Bill Snyder is one of the best head coaches in the country. Oklahoma has had struggles vs. teams that can stop the run. Both TCU and Texas cans top the run and force an offense into a third and long and QB Trevor Knight has been unable to convert in those situations as Oklahoma has only converted 36% of their third downs this year and were 8-29 against top 50 run defenses of which they have only faced 2. Kansas State is ranked 5th allowing 2.7 ypc and that ranking is legit holding Auburn under 3 yards per carry and just about everyone else. They held UTEP who is averaging over 300 yards per carry to 59 yards rushing. What's flying under the radar here is the play of Kansas State's QB Jake Waters who has better numbers than Trevor Knight, but doesn't get the hype that Knight gets. He's got a 147 QB rating completing 65% of his throws and 8.4 yds /attempt. He's also got Tyler Lockett to throw to and even better running numbers than Knight too so what do you have to say about that Katy Perry? Oklahoma's pass defense has allowed 300+ yards in three straight games now and Tyler Lockett had 12 receptions for 278 yards a year ago. This Kansas State team is much better than last year and is fully capable of pulling off the upset!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ALABAMA -13 over Texas A&M: The last couple of year the Tide has really struggled with this Aggies team, but that was with Johnny Football at QB. Now Kenny Hill is the QB and while he had a great start to his season, he has shown the last few weeks that maybe he is just not as good as that start showed. Now he faces a very tough Bama defense that will be looking for some payback after allowing Texas A&M to put up 71 points on them the last 2 years combined. The Aggie defense looked very good earlier in the year vs some weak competition, but in their last 3 games vs stronger offenses they have allowed 460 ypg and 37 ppg. The Tide's offense has sputtered in the last two weeks but this still is a very good offense that ranks 20th in total yards and averages 33.2 ppg. The Tide has not played very well overall in their last 2 games and I feel they will take it out on the Aggies in this one. The Tide is still in the thick of the playoff race and will get back on track with a win of at least 17 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: The Aggies are 0-18 ATS as road dogs after being in the role as a home favorite.
Akron/Ohio Under 42: This game figures to be a very low scoring game as both offenses have struggled this year, but the defenses haven't been all that bad. Akron comes in having scored 60 points in their last two games, but that was vs Miami-Oh and Eastern Michigan's defenses, plus it was also with QB Pohl, who is listed as doubtful in this game. On defense, the Zips have been very solid and have allowed just 11.2 ppg in games they have played vs teams NOT named Marshall. This is a very good defense and without Pohl in their on offense they will be a very conservative group as well. Ohio put up 70 points combined vs FCS Foe Eastern Illinois and FBS weakling Idaho, but in their other 5 games they have averaged just 11.4 ppg in their other 5 games. I can see both teams having problems scoring in this one as we get a game in the lower 30's at best.
BEST OF THE REST
Army/Kent State Under 51.5: This Kent State offense is pathetic this year as they rank 123rd in the nation in total yards and 127th in scoring (11.8 ppg), while not scoring more than 17 points in a game so far. They will be taking on a bad Army defense, but they only scored 17 points on a bad UMass defense last week, so just cause they are playing a bad defense doesn't mean they will score allot. The Army offense is all about the run and that will help keep the clock moving. Army has been involved in some high scoring games this year, but this will not be one of them.
NORTHWESTERN +7 over Nebraska: This has been a tight series as he last 3 meetings have all been decided by a FG or less and the Cats have been playing much better than the start that put them at 0-2 out the gate. They have won 3 of their last 4 games, which includes a 20-14 win over Wisconsin on this same field. Nebraska has had a nice start this year, but really who have they played. They beat Miami by 10 and lost to Michigan State on the road by 5 points. The rest of their schedule has consisted of FAU/ McNeese State (who they struggled with), Fresno State and Illinois. Not murderers row by any stretch. The Cats play very good defense and Nebraska had problems moving the Ball on the only good defense they have played this year, in Michigan State. The Husker defense isn’t all that great and I feel that Northwestern will score enough to keep the game close, and maybe even outright. I look for the Cats to pull another upset here or at the very least this should be another game decided by a FG or less.
Missouri/Florida Under 47: The Missouri offense is having problems scoring right now and this gator’s defense is allot better than they showed last week and vs Alabama a few weeks ago. I feel they will get back on track defensively in this one. The Gator offense woke up a bit last week, but this offense isn’t really geared to do it two weeks in a row and they may be a bit flat after their battle with the Tigers last week. Just don’t see this game nearing 50 points at all.
Matt Fargo
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Kansas State +7½
We will take a shot on Kansas St. which has a good shot at pulling off the outright upset. The Wildcats have bounced back from their loss against Auburn with two straight blowout victories. While they were outgained by Auburn by just 74 total yards, in their four victories, the Wildcats have outgained their opponents by at least 152 yards each time out. Obviously, this presents a very tough test but this is one team that will not be intimidated on the road. Oklahoma is one of many teams that were expected to make a run at the playoff but have suffered a damaging loss. It will be hard for the Sooners to get back into the mix and even harder knowing they are not playing well. They have been outgained in three straight games including last week against Texas as their five-point win over the Longhorns was good but they fact they were outgained by 250 yards in the process is not. Kansas St. has covered 11 of its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Wildcats are 12-3 ATS under head coach Bill Snyder as a road underdog exemplifying the non-intimidation on the road. The road team has covered five straight meetings in this series and I expect that to continue here.
Tom Stryker
Kansas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -13
Currently on an ugly 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS Big 12 run, Texas Tech will be elated to see Kansas come to town. The Red Raiders have dominated the Jayhawks to the tune of 14-1 SU and have quietly won seven straight in this series by an average of 19.0 points per game.
Kansas put forth an inspired effort at home against Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Jayhawks (+19) nearly pulled off the upset over the Cowboys but fell short 27-20. This will be a tough emotional encore for KU. Rock-Chalk is on a woeful 13-50 SU and 23-35 ATS run including a shocking 4-29 SU and 9-24 ATS if they played at home last. With those two parameters live and Kansas off an ATS win, this team trend crashes to an ugly 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS. Please note: Those 12 losses came by an average of 32.9 points per game.
Even with their 2-4 SU record, this is a sound technical spot for Texas Tech. At home going into revenge, the Red Raiders own a money-making 34-7 SU and 28-13 ATS record including a strong 26-4 SU and 23-7 ATS mark in this set tackling an opponent that played in the comforts of home last. With those two parameters working and TTRR not off a blowout win of 10 points or more, this team trend explodes to a jaw-dropping 18-2 SU and ATS.
The Red Raiders haven't started 0-4 in the conference since they joined the Big 12 back in 1996. With TCU, Texas and Oklahoma on deck, head coach Kliff Kingsbury knows his troops must get the "W" here or they'll be in danger of starting the season 0-7 SU in the conference.
River City Sharps
Duke -2
We have a big game for bragging rights in the ACC’s Coastal Division on Saturday when HC Mike London and the Virginia Cavaliers travel to Durham to take on the Duke Blue Devils. The Cavaliers have used a platoon system at quarterback this season as both Matt Johns and Greyson Lambert have seen time as the Cavs signal caller. That’s not the case at Duke where Anthony Boone continues to run the Blue Devils offense. Virginia did get some extra time to get healthy as they come off a bye week, defeating Pitt 24-19 back on October 4th. The Blue Devils came up with a big win last week, defeating Georgia Tech 31-25 in Atlanta. Duke enters the game at 5-1 on the season while Virginia is 4-2. Here are some things to consider when looking at this matchup…Duke’s offense, especially at home, has been prolific, scoring almost 47 ppg. Virginia has enjoyed lots of home cooking this season and this will only be their second game of the year away from Charlottesville. This is a series that Duke has owned in recent memory, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Virginia. Duke is 11-2 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons and 9-1 as the home favorite in that time. One thing to watch in this game will be the turnover battle, because much of Virginia’s success has come from their ability to turn their opponents over. The Cavaliers have forced 19 turnovers already this season, a total that may be difficult to add to with these Blue Devils. Duke has committed just five turnovers in their six games this year. For the Sharps, this story stops and starts with the fact that Duke is at home, a place where they have been very difficult to beat. They have won five of the last six matchups with Virginia and they have won seven straight home games. The line movement suggests there is some decent action coming in on the visitor and the line is the best we are going to get…we fully believe the Sharps will be stepping in here very soon to start buying Duke back.
Nelly
Colorado + over USC
USC has featured no shortage of drama this season as a week after getting beat on a Hail Mary, the Trojans allowed a successful on-side kick that should have allowed Arizona to steal a game if not for a missed kick. Arizona was the last remaining undefeated Pac-12 team so that was a big game for USC and while this is homecoming, Colorado won't be the same draw. The Buffaloes have consistently sat at the bottom of the conference since joining the league in 2011 but this year's team has competed well in three losses in conference play. Colorado was off last week to boost the preparation for one of the biggest games on the schedule and with a heavy underdog price on an offense that can put up points the Buffs are worth a look. Colorado out-gained both Arizona State and California in losses this season and only was out-gained by 14 yards against Oregon State as this is an elite passing team that has proven it can compete in the Pac-12. USC has only had two convincing wins this season, seemingly playing close games almost every week and there could be a letdown situation after last week's dramatic win. USC has been out-gained in four of the last five games and the Trojans don't have great depth on defense to keep pace with Colorado's great passing attack that will keep firing, even if they get down early.
LT Profits
Baylor vs West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia +8
The Baylor Bears were challenged for the first time all year last week and they trailed an excellent TCU team by 21 points early in the fourth quarter before rallying for the exhilarating 61-58 win. Things will not get any easier here with the Bears playing in a wild environment in Morgantown visiting the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mounties are 4-2 and they were competitive vs. national powerhouses in the two losses losing 33-23 at Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma. Perhaps the biggest key here for West Virginia besides its usually large home field advantage is that it is allowing only 213.7 passing yards per game on 6.4 yards per attempt, so the Mountaineers could possibly rattle Baylor’s Bryce Petty playing at home. And remember the West Virginia offense is not shoddy either ranking eighth nationally in total offense. Baylor is 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 games as a conference road favorite of -3 or more.
AC Dinero
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Play: Texas A&M +14
Texas AM comes in on a 2 game slide to take on the Crimson Tide that returns home of a 1-1 road trip. Alabama looked human in those games, including a loss that saw them uncharachteristically make several mistakes that cost them the game. The running game isn't as dominant as in years past, mainly due to an inconsistent OL. The AM defense has been OK this season, especially on 3rd down (36%). The offense is still potent, though not consistent. The Bama defense is better this year, but still has issues with tempo offenses like Texas AM. The Aggies have been the more productive team in teh red zone and the kicking game. This game opened at 14, and has dropped a few points. That's rare for Alabama at home. Not calling for an upset, but double digits is alot for a team that is unproven defending tempo offenses
Jeff Clement
Tennessee vs. Mississippi
Play: Tennessee +16.5
The Volunteers have Justin Worley at quarterback who has passed for 1,388 yards with 12 TD's and his two playmakers at receiver Marquez North & Pig Howard will need to make some plays in this game to give them a chance to win. Ole Miss is coming off an impressive 35-20 win over Texas A&M last week are ranked #3 in the nation. Bo Wallace has been outstanding with 1,700 yards passing and 15 TD's for the Rebels. Both defenses are solid with the Vols allowing 19.2 points per game and Ole Miss only allowing 11.8 which is 2nd in the nation. I expect a little bit of a let down by Ole Miss in a low scoring slug fest. Prediction: OLEMISS 27 TENN 19.
Michael Alexander
Miami Ohio vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Miami Ohio +14
Northern Illinois is nowhere near the team they used to be as they have had only 14, 17, 17 point efforts lately and have gone from 275 rushing yards, to 181, to 110, and are -72½ points ATS in their last 3 games. Miami (OH) on the other hand is +40½ points this year while QB Hendrix has 789 passing yards in their last 2 contests.
Marc Lawrence
Clemson at Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Edges - Eagles: 7-0 ATS after facing NC State; and 6-0 ATS with conference revenge; and head coach Addazio 7-1 ATS home with revenge. Tigers: First road game in a month and 0-3 SU last three away games. With BC owning the better offense and the better defense in games versus FBS opposition this season, the points became the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Boston College.
Tony George
Nevada +12
This line is confusing to say the least, and I feel 100% public perception based. This is anywhere from -10 to -12 depending on your outlet. Nevada runs to the Pistol attack on offense to perfection and QB Fajardo is another in a long line of QB’s for the Wolfpack that can rack up some yards and put points on the board. BYU on the other hand was expected to possibly go undefeated this year however losing their star QB Hill to a season ending injury has dashed their hopes of that but yet still oddsmakers favor them this week into the double digit range. WHY – BYU reeling off 2 straight losses and are very banged up.
One thing about Nevada,, who beat Washington State earlier this year, is that they will give you 4 quarters of football. This is a veteran , well coached team. They have competed in every game they played this year, and two very close losses to Boise State and Colorado State, both very good teams, and both games they could have won. Nevada ranked 26th in total yards on offense in the nation, and their defense is not all that bad, ranking 55th in total yards allowed. What this says to me is that this is a team who will compete, can strike quick, and rack up some offensive numbers.
Rob Vinciletti
Missouri vs. Florida
Play: Missouri +5.5
Bounce back is order for Mizzou as they were shutout vs Georgia last week. The Tigers are 5-1 ats as SEC Dogs and have covered 10 of 12 on the road in conference play with revenge. The Gators are 1-4 ats prior to games vs Georgia and have failed to cover 5 of 6 before a bye. Coach Muschamp is 0-8 ats off a loss, while coach Pinkel has covered 16 of 19 off a loss of 17 or more. To tie is a solid power system we note that road dogs off a home dog loss and spread loss have covered 13 of 15 times since 1980 if they were shutout and their opponent is also off a home loss. The Gators may be flat off a bad blown loss to LSU last week. Missouri is 5-0 ats after scoring 14 or less.
Scott Spreitzer
N. Illinois -13.5
We went against the Huskies last weekend and cashed when underdog Central Michigan won outright. But I expect much better results for the Huskies when they host Miami. Despite the loss last week, NIU still owns a powerful ground game, averaging 231.7 yards rushing per game. They're also in a good spot, going against a Miami squad that's playing their fifth road game in six weeks. The Redhawks allow over 425 total yards per game and over 32 ppg, but can't produce on the offensive side of the line of scrimmage where they rank 123rd in the nation on the ground and average under 23 ppg. Poor numbers and a team that could be a bit drained by the scheduling dynamics and I suspect they'll get pushed around by a quality running team. I'm recommending a play on Northern Illinois minus the points on Saturday.