Joe Gavazzi
UCLA -7
Are the Bruins the most underachieving team in the country? Expected to contend for the National Title, UCLA has dropped their last 2 decisions to Utah (30-28) and last week to Oregon (42-30). Before we castigate the Bear, know that in that contest, they both outrushed and out-passed Oregon for a yardage edge of 563-468. Yet, this team has not tossed the towel. Expect a huge bounce back against a Cal team who comes off an embarrassing loss of their own. That was by the count of 31-7, in which their high-powered attack was held to 375 yards by the Huskies. But, it is that Cal defense that is consistently their undoing. For the season, they allowed 39 PPG, over 400 PYPG and 518 total YPG. Well aware that at this site series history has favored Cal. UCLA is 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS here. UCLA qualifies under the same value laden situation as Washington last week. That is a winning team, who is 3 games or more under .500 ATS and is coming off a loss. Play UCLA to bounce back against the defenseless Bears.
Joe D'Amico
Missouri at Florida
Pick: Missouri
Missouri comes back strong this week after the Tigers gained just 147 yards their last outing, a 34-0 defeat to the Bulldogs. QB, Mauk played the poorest game of his career accounting for 5 TO's in the loss. The standout will make a statement here with his stellar receiving corps and solid ground game. Florida HC, Will Muschamp announced that both Driskell and Harris will see action here. The offense continues to struggle as the "D" has had big problems when facing offensive squads that consist of well-balanced attacks. I see Mizzou's DE, Ray wreaking havoc and causing TO's here. The Gators are 1-5 ATS their L6 games played at home, 1-5 ATS their L6 games played vs. teams with a winning record, and 2-5 ATS their L7 games played overall. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS their L8 games played on the road, 10-2 ATS their L12 following a SU loss, and 14-5-1 ATS their L20 games played overall.
Jim Feist
Texas A&m at Alabama
Pick: Alabama
A&M started the season with a perfect 5-0 S/U record and a big win against then No 9 South Carolina, 52-28. However, they haven't done well against the Mississippi schools the last two weeks. They lost at #12 Mississippi State, 48-31 and then lost at home to #3 Ole Miss, j35-20. It doesn't get any easier this week against their third straight ranked opponent in #7 Alabama. The Aggies have the 8th best scoring offense in college football. However, take that with a grain of salt as they scored 52 in their opening game at South Carolina and 73 the next week against Lamar and 58 against a bad SMU team. Now they face the 9th best scoring defense in the country in Alabama. The Tide are 5-1 S/U this year with their lone loss coming at Ole Miss, 23-17. The Aggies haven't fared well on the road of late, posting a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven away contests. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games. Should be an excellent contest here with two ranked clubs. The Tide's defense though will be the difference. They haven't allowed over 23 points yet this season and over 20 points just twice in six games.
Kyle Hunter
Kentucky +10½
These aren't the same LSU Tigers you have been seeing the past few years. They also aren't the same Kentucky Wildcats you have been accustomed to seeing. LSU is way down this year, and Kentucky is much better than they have been. LSU has a major hole at the quarterback spot right now, and the LSU defense isn't good enough to shut out teams as they have in the past. Kentucky's defense is far better this season. The Wildcats should have beaten Florida at the Swamp, and LSU needed a last second field goal to beat Florida in Gainesville last week. This line implies that LSU would be favored by almost a touchdown on a neutral field, and I don't think that's correct. Kentucky should stay in this game. Grab the 10.5 points here.
Jack Jones
Colorado +21
While it isn't reflected in their 2-4 record, the Colorado Buffaloes are a vastly improved team from a year ago. The statistics tell it all when you look away from the win/loss record. They have only been outgained in two games this season. They were outgained by 25 yards to Colorado State in their season-opening 17-31 loss. They were also outgained by only 14 yards by Oregon State in their 31-36 loss last week.
In their other four games, the Buffaloes outgained their opponents, including three times by more than 100 yards. They outgained UMass by 103 yards in their 41-38 road victory. They outgained Arizona State by 119 yards in their 24-38 home loss. They outgained Hawaii by 119 yards in their 21-12 home win. They also outgained California by 45 yards in their 56-59 (OT) road loss.
Colorado is scoring 31.7 points per game and averaging 476.5 yards per game of total offense. It is giving up 35.7 points and 417.3 yards per game defensively. As you can see, it is outgaining opponents by nearly 60 yards per game, which would be the sign of a 4-2 team rather than one that is 2-4. However, that poor record has the Buffaloes undervalued as 21-point underdogs in this game.
This Buffaloes offense has been hitting on all cylinders this season behind the play of quarterback Sefo Liufau, who is one of the most underrated signal callers in the country. He is completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 1,887 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. Nelson Spruce is having a monster season at receiver, catching 62 balls for 732 yards and 10 scores.
USC (4-2) clearly has some issues this season. Sure, it has blowout wins over Fresno State and Oregon State, but each of its other four games were decided by six points or less. The 31-37 road loss to Boston College just shows how vulnerable this team is. They should never have beaten Stanford on the road as they were outgained by 122 yards in that game. In fact, they have been outgained in four of their six games this season and probably should be 2-4 instead of 4-2 because of it.
USC is 5-14 ATS following one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. The Buffaloes are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games. They only lost to USC 29-47 last year. That was a much better USC team than the 2014 version, while there’s no question that this 2014 Colorado team is much better than last year’s version. I look for the Buffaloes to stay within three touchdowns of the Trojans once again this year.
Dave Price
Arizona State +3.5
Motivated by four consecutive losses to Stanford and having had an extra week to prepare, Arizona State is in great position to cover the number Saturday. The Cardinal check in off a 34-17 win and cover against Washington State, but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a cover. They are also 0-6 ATS since the beginning of last season following a victory of 17 points or more. It's a known fact that having extra preparation time is a big advantage, and ASU has put its extra time to good use. Since 1992, it is 10-1 ATS in home games when playing with two weeks of rest or more and has won these contests by an average of 14.0 points. Todd Graham is one heck of a coach, and his teams are 9-1 ATS all-time as home underdogs of seven points or less. It's also worth noting that the Sun Devils are on a 20-8 ATS run at home versus teams that have a win percentage of 60-75%. The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Kentucky +10½
It shouldn’t take a whole lot of convincing that this is the best team Kentucky has fielded in recent years. Kentucky had won a combined 4 games the last two years and hadn’t won a conference game since 2011 before knocking off South Carolina 45-38 at home. The only loss on the season for the Wildcats is a 30-36 overtime defeat at Florida. It just so happens that LSU just got done playing on the road against the Gators and they barely scraped by with a 30-27 win.
The simple fact that LSU has been one of the dominant SEC teams over the last decade and Kentucky has been a bottom feeder has the Tigers overvalued in what I think are two evenly matched teams. There is some concern with this game being a home game at night for LSU, but we have already seen the Tigers get embarrassed on their home turf by Mississippi State.
One of the big reasons why I like Kentucky to keep this game close, is the Wildcats have the talent offensively to take advantage of arguably the worst defense LSU has fielded in the Les Miles era. Kentucky comes in ranked 38th in the country in total offense (448.5 ypg) behind a well balanced attack. The Wildcats are averaging 184.2 ypg on the ground and 264.3 ypg through the air.
What stands out to me is just how much more success Kentucky had moving the ball against a strong Florida defense, compared to what LSU did against the Gators. The Wildcats put up 532 yards of total offense at the swamp, while the Tigers managed just 306 yards. Not only is Kentucky capable of keeping this game within single digits, I think they have an outside shot at winning outright.
The fact that LSU comes in having played their last two games on the road, puts us in a great spot to fade the Tigers. LSU is just 4-13 ATS since 1992 after playing two straight on the road. The Tigers are also just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the number last time out.
Chip Chirimbes
Georgia vs. Arkansas
Play: Arkansas +3½
The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost 15 consecutive SEC games and have yet to win a conference game under coach Bret Bielema who says his team is ready for a win after nearly upsetting Alabama last week losing 14-13. The Bulldogs of course will be without Todd Gurley and are off a 30-0 routing of Missouri recording their second shutout of the season (Troy 66-0). The Razorbacks will continue their huge efforts (5-1 ATS) and get the cash here.
Steve Janus
Michigan State Spartains -16
Indiana lost starting quarterback Nate Sudfield for the season in last week's loss to Iowa and the offense was a complete mess without him. The Hoosiers have a big time talent in running back Tevin Coleman, but without the threat of a passing game, he's not going to continue to put up the kind of numbers we have seen so far, especially against a talented defensive team like Michigan State. What I like here is that all the Spartans have been hearing over the past couple of weeks is how they can't finish games. Michigan State is going to be out to make a statement and should have no problem building up a big cushion against a awful Indiana defense. Indiana will be starting a true freshman at quarterback and that's almost certainly going to lead to some turnovers. I wouldn't be surprised if the Spartans' defense didn't score a touchdown or even two. This game has blowout written all over it. It would take a truly bad performance from Michigan State to not win by at least 3 scores.
Doug Upstone
Rutgers vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -21½
On Saturday, Play On home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Ohio State, with an incredible offense averaging 6.4 or more yards per play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in two consecutive games. When favorites in this price range get the offense cranked up, they are nearly impossible to contain. How much so, what about 31-5 ATS since 2005, good for a 86.1 percent win percentage.
Great Lakes Sports
Tennessee vs. Ole Miss
Play: Ole Miss -16
The Mississippi Rebels is having one of their greatest seasons ever, as they are a perfect 6-0 and the number #3 ranked team in the country. The Mississippi Rebels are a rock solid 4-1 ATS against the Tennessee Volunteers the last five meetings in this series and the Rebels are an outstanding 3-0-1 ATS when playing in their last four home games. The Rebels is also a very nice 4-0-1 ATS their last five games following a straight up win and they are a whopping 3-0-1 ATS their last four games following a ATS win. We look for the Mississippi Rebels to blowout the Tennessee Volunteers and grab the home ATS win & cover this Saturday.
Sam Martin
Iowa at Maryland
Prediction: Iowa
We'll start off our CFB Saturday by taking the points with visiting Iowa, fully expecting the Hawkeyes to win this game outright. Maryland was exposed two weeks ago in their blowout home loss against Ohio State, and after a number of games that Maryland was able to win despite losing the statistical battle, their luck finally ran out against the Buckeyes.
Terps now have to adjust to life in the Big Ten, which is a very physical schedule week in and week out. Iowa comes in underrated here despite their 5-1 record and good showings against Pittsburgh (won outright as a 6.5-point road underdog) as well as 16-point home win and ATS cover last week vs. Indiana. Maryland has given up a ton of yardage defensively - especially on the ground and that is where the Hawkeyes can exploit this Maryland team. Don't like the matchup on the other side of the ball for the home side and we look for Iowa to lead this game by 3-10 points almost the entire way!
SPORTS WAGERS
Sunderland +1 -109 over SOUTHAMPTON
Southampton is the classic case of a table-topping team being sold at an extremely high price. Conversely Sunderland is a mid-tier squad offered at a low wager. Southampton and Sunderland have had interesting dealings historically with five of the last 10 match-ups resulting in a draw. Sunderland has won on two occasions while Southampton has won three times. Most notably, the two wins Sunderland acquired, both transpired at St. Mary’s Stadium, the home pitch of the Saints.
This weekend’s fixture will take place in Southampton yet again and the last contest between the two at St. Mary’s Stadium resulted in a 1-1 draw. Despite their mediocre eight points, Sunderland has lost just one game on the year, an away shocker at Loftus Road where the Black Cats fell to the Queens Park Rangers. Otherwise, Sunderland regardless of whether it was home or away, managed to accumulate five draws in the remaining six matches. The Black Cats will be entering this fixture on a high note, as they enter the contest after earning their first win against Stoke City at 3-1. Simply put, Sunderland knows how to manage the game, but does not look as appealing on paper as Southampton. Southampton has earned 13 points but accumulated most of their figures on a four point winning streak, including: Queens Park Rangers, Newcastle, West Ham United and Swansea City. With the exception of the Swansea City victory, the remaining three teams are squads of auspicious caliber. Southampton’s most recent result was a 0-0 draw against West Bromwich Albion, another team with a rather nefarious reputation when it comes to elite classification. Furthermore, this result occurred on Southampton’s own pitch and with a Sunderland team entering this game, flying high on a respectable win, we’ll gladly scoop up the full goal and lay a little juice.
DAVE COKIN
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING AT VANCOUVER CANUCKS
PLAY: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING +115
The Canucks are off to a sharp 3-0 start, but I’m taking that with a large grain of salt. Fact is, anything less than a perfect spot would have been a disappointment considering the competition. The Canucks have feasted on a menu of Calgary, Edmonton and Edmonton again. Tonight’s challenge is considerably more difficult as the Lightning make the trip west.
Tampa Bay comes into the season with high expectations, and the early returns have been okay, if not spectacular. The Lightning have only won two of their first four games, but they’ve looked better than that record might indicate.
The big difference between last year’s TampaBay entry and the current edition is that they’re going to be more physical. I really liked the acquisition of defenseman Jason Garrett. The former Canuck is a great fit with a Lightning team that’s determined to play with more of a defensive mindset. Garrett figures to be revved up for his return to Vancouver tonight, particularly since his being asked to waive his no-trade clause this summer was not especially well received when it happened.
I see one of the keys tonight resting with this being the second of back to backs for the Canucks. Vancouver had a tough time in this scenario last season and I believe they’re going to be vulnerable to the fresher and faster Lightning legs tonight.
Several of my early season plays are based on my pre-season perceptions of various teams. I’m not especially high on this Canucks squad, and feel the 3-0 start against soft opposition is a mirage. Tampa Bay represents a significant step up in competition, and with the Canucks being unrested, I don’t see them being up to the task at hand tonight. I’ve certainly got no problem with the price tag since the visitors are getting underdog odds right now. I’ll side with the Lightning to get the road win tonight.
Andy Iskoe
New Mexico St. / Idaho Over 68
This game features a pair of "defenseless" teams that have average to slightly above average offenses. The defensive stats for both New Mexico State and Idaho are downright ugly. In looking solely at games against FBS competition, of the 128 teams in the FBS Division, both rank 110 or lower in total defense (allowing a combined 992 yards per game), scoring defense (allowing a combined 81.0 points per game and defensive yards per play (NMS allows 7.4 ypp, #125, and Idaho allows 6.7 ypp, #116). Neither offense is especially adept at running the football but both are well above average in the passing game (ranking #15 and #41 in passing yards per game). Each team averages the same 25.3 points per game -- and that is against defenses better than their own. The elements will not be a factor as this game will be played inside the Kibbie Dome. On a yards per play basis Idaho's best defensive effort this season was in allowing "just" 6.5 ypp in its opening 38-31 loss at Louisiana Monroe. Ignoring the game against FCS Cal Poly SLO (4.7 ypp) New Mexico State's best defensive ypp effort (vs FBS teams) the 5.7 allowed to Georgia Southern (first season removed from being an FCS team) while allowing all other FBS foes to gain at least 6.0 yards per play. Given these stats we should see plenty of missed tackles, long runs and long pass completions. My model projects this game to produce a total of between 74 and 81 total points.