Jesse Schule
Iowa State at Texas
Pick: Iowa State
The Texas Longhorns came quite close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma last week, and now they find themselves favored by double digits at home to Iowa State this Saturday. The Cyclones are just 2-4, but I think they've played for better than that record would suggest. Some would say that they haven't gotten a fair shake from the officials, and when you take a look at the replay of the final play of the first half of their loss to Oklahoma State, it's easy to see why the Cyclones were not happy. It appeared that Desmond Roland was stopped short of the goal line as time expired in the half, but officials reviewed the play and decided he got in for the TD. It's worth a look on Youtube, I can't see how anyone could have said that there was indisputable evidence of a TD. The Cylcones lost that game by 17 points, which doesn't give us an accurate indication of how close the game actually was. Iowa State also played a tough game against Kansas State, losing by just four, and they beat Iowa outright 20-17 on the road. Texas looked impressive last week, but I still think it's asking too much of the Longhorns to cover a big number here. Last year Texas won by a score of 31-30 in Iowa, and the visitors have covered six of the last eight in this series.
Carolina Sports
Akron -2½
Akron is favored on the road at Ohio? Yep and they should be. The Zips come into this game on a 3-game winning streak and playing some of their best football in years. The defense has been stellar only allowing 17.3-ppg for the season and 5.2-ypp. That does not bode well for an Ohio U team that is absolutely awful on offense as they are only avg 5.4-ypp and 18.1-ppg. Ohio U. is 5-14 ATS against conference opponents the last three years. Look for the Akron defense to control this game and get the win and cover on the road.
Anthony Michael
Missouri +5.5
The Gators are favored in an SEC game? Against a quality opponent? Really??? They have played 4 SEC games with only 2 SU wins, one in OT and the other by 1 point. Missouri will be very ready to atone for their horrible game last wee getting shut out by Georgia. The Tigers have covered their last 4 games as road dogs and their defense will be able to keep the Gators from scoring too many points here.
Larry Ness
Clemson vs. Boston College
Pick: Boston College
Last year’s 11-2 Clemson team, which would wrap its season with a 40-35 win over Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl, almost lost at home to a BC squad which finished 2013 at 7-6, after getting crushed 42-19 by Arizona St in a bowl game.The Eagles kept senior QB Taj Boyd and the Tigers out of synch offensively while using big plays to carry a 14-10 lead into the final period. However, the Tigers fought back with two 4th-quarter TDs to win 24-4 (BC was 24-point underdogs). 24th-ranked Clemson enters this game 4-2 and has lost stellar freshman QB Deshaun Watson, who is out for at least the next month.
Watson had surgery Monday to set a broken bone in a finger on his right hand with four screws. Cole Stoudt started Clemson's first two games, passing for 446 yards with a touchdown and an interception but gave way to Watson early in an overtime loss to Florida State on Sep 20. Watson led Clemson to wins over North Carolina and NC State, leading the Clemson offense to 91 points. He threw for 702 yards in those two contests, with eight TDs and just one INT (added 90 yards rushing for two more scores). It was a very choppy showing last weekend against Louisville by Stoudt and the offense, after Watson broke a small bone in a finger of his right, throwing hand in the opening quarter.
Clemson did beat the Cardinals 23-17 but the Tigers, who entered the game as the ACC leader in total offense and scoring, managed only 229 yards and did not score an offensive touchdown. Stoudt was recuperating from a left shoulder injury sustained a week earlier with Clemson in control against North Carolina State in a mop-up role. He did not practice much during the week and acknowledged he was not far from fully healthy against Louisville's top-rated defense. Stoudt finished 20 of 33 passing for 162 yards but he was sacked three times, threw an interception and was twice stopped short on crucial runs that ended drives and cost the Tigers.
The Tigers' offense will face another stout defense in Boston College, which ranks rank eighth in the FBS, surrendering 289.8 YPG. The Eagles allowed North Carolina State to cross midfield only ONCE in the second half of last Saturday's 30-14 win and outrushed the Wolfpack 310-43. Florida transfer Tyler Murphy (more of a runner than a thrower) leads a Boston College offense that ranks fourth in the FBS in rushing, averaging 315.7 YPG. Murphy has run for a team-high 711 yards (8.3 YPC) and RB Jon Hilliman (454 rushing yards and seven TDs) will surely be tested by a Clemson rush D which allows a modest 100.5 YPG on 3.0 YPC.
BC upset then-No. 9 here in Chestnut Hill 37-31 back on Sep 13 and just may slew another ‘dragon’ (or top-25 team, if you will) this Saturday. Take the points.
Harry Bondi
NEW MEXICO (+10) over Air Force
Not only has Air Force been outgained by its opponent in four out its last five games, but the Fly Boys are a dismal 9-22 ATS the last three seasons and an even worse 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when labeled the favorite. On top of that, Air Force has a huge game on deck when it travels to Army. New Mexico has had success in this series covering three of the last four and the Lobos have the kind of running game that can slow this game down and help them keep it close throughout. Take those points!
Dr. Bob
Top 25
Baylor (-7½) 43 WEST VIRGINIA 40
I hope Baylor pulls this game out because I have a play on the Bears to win the National Championship game, but an upset here would not surprise me and I’ll certainly favor West Virginia to cover. Baylor’s defense wasn’t as bad last week as the 58 points they allowed to TCU makes it appear, as the Bears allowed a reasonable 6.0 yards per play to a Horned Frogs’ offense that would average 6.4 yppl on the road against an average defense, and overall the Bears have been very good defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). However, West Virginia is a very good offensive team that has averaged 6.3 yards per play against FBS teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack, so the Mountaineers have the advantage and will also run a lot of plays in a game between two high paced offensive teams. Baylor’s offense actually doesn’t rate as highly as the West Virginia offense, as the Bears have been 1.0 yppl better than aveage against FBS competition, but West Virginia is just average defensively (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl) and Baylor should also amass a lot of yards with a lot of plays. Overall, Baylor is expected to have a 91 yards edge but West Virginia has better special teams, which will help with field position and on the occasions when drives do not end in touchdowns (WVA had a very good kicker and Baylor has a horrible kicker). Baylor also isn’t nearly as good on the road as they’ve been at home in recent seasons, as the Bears have been 17-2 ATS at home the last 4 seasons and just 6-10 ATS on the road. I like West Virginia plus the points.
Strong Opinion – Kansas State (+7) 26 OKLAHOMA 28
The line has come down on this game from +10 to +7 but there is still some value in favor of Kansas State here. I’m not going to waste time making a case for the Wildcats based on matchups or line value – although my math model does only favor the Sooners by 5.2 points – since this Strong Opinion is about a very strong 43-4-2 ATS game 6 situation that applies to Kansas State. That same angle applied to my Best Bet win on Colorado State last week and on Louisville at Syracuse the week before that and has been 10-0 ATS since 2009. I don’t make Best Bets on games strictly because of the situation but the situation and a bit of line value make this game worthy of a Strong Opinion. I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
OHIO STATE (-22) 40 Rutgers 23
Ohio State played their best game of the season against Maryland before their bye week and the Buckeyes are a good team that rates at 1.0 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average on defense. However, the line on this game is too high, as Rutgers is a better than average team that makes up for their questionable defense (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) with a very good offense that has averaged 6.7 yppl (against FBS teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). The math model actually gives Rutgers a profitable 54.7% chance of covering now that the line has gone above 21 points. I like Rutgers plus the points.
ALABAMA (-13½) 40 Texas A&M 27
Alabama has covered the spread only once all season (against Florida) but the line may have caught up to the Tide’s current level of play. Alabama is still an elite team that rates at 1.5 yppl better than average offensively (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and 1.1 yppl better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combie to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), and the Crimson Tide offense should post good numbers against a mediocre A&M defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than the average rating of the defensive units that Alabama has faced this season. Bama has only averaged 33.2 points per game but they should score more than that in this game against a worse defensive team and with more plays expected. The real battle here is a very good Alabama defense against a very good Texas A&M offense that has averaged 39 points per game and has been 1.8 yppl better than average (7.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). The Aggies were held in check the last two weeks by good defensive teams from the state of Mississippi, averaging just 5.4 yppl and 25.5 points per game. My math model projects a bit more than that here but overall the math favors Alabama by 13 ½ points, which is right on the number.
Michigan State (-16) 38 INDIANA 25
Michigan State, known for their defense, actually has been better on offense so far this season, as Connor Cook has used play action to push the ball down the field while the rushing attack has averaged 251 yards per game. The Spartans have averaged 503 yards per game and rate at 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively while their defense is a good, but not great, 0.7 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. That defense has been inconsistent and actually rates worse than a very good Indiana offense that has averaged 6.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Unfortunately, the Hoosiers are a bit worse than average defensively and will give up a lot of points here. However, the math only favors Michigan State by 12 ½ points and I’ll lean with Indiana plus the points.
TCU (-10) 37 Oklahoma State 26
TCU proved last week in their epic 58-61 loss that they are an elite team and their stats show that too, as the Horned Frogs rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has shown that they’re a pretty mediocre team from the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys have been just average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and only 0.1 yppl better than average on defense (5.2 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl. What makes Oklahoma State a solid team overall is their great special teams but that’s not enough to compete with TCU most weeks. However, TCU is in a major letdown mode today, as the Horned Frogs apply to a very negative 35-121-3 ATS situation that is based on their close loss to highly ranked Baylor. I’ll still lean with TCU slightly since my math model really likes that side (a 55.4% play at -10 based solely on the math) but I respect the situation enough to stay away from this game.
Strong Opinion – Colorado (+21) 21 USC 36
USC is not as good as their #25 ranking, as the Trojans have been just 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.6 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive unit. USC actually has been 11 points better than average because they take care of the ball (just 3 offensive turnovers) and have run 8 plays per game more than their opponents. However, the Trojans are not good enough to be favored by 3 touchdowns against a decent Colorado team that has outgained an average schedule of opponents by an average of 61 total yards per game. Colorado is actually 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively but the Buffaloes run a ball control offense that moves the chains and they’ve averaged 18 more plays per game than their opponents, which makes up for the negative compensated yards per play numbers. My math model projects the plays evenly in this game and forecasts USC to have a yardage advantage of 485 yard at 6.5 yppl to 367 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Buffs. The Trojans also have a 0.9 turnovers advantage but all of that is not enough to justify this huge line. My math model gives Colorado a profitable 54.3% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my model and I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at +21 points or more.
Marshall (-22 ½) 35 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 16
Marshall has been ripping off 40-plus points per week all season and have scored at least 42 points in every game while averaging 48 points. However, the Thundering Herd have also played a collection of bad defensive teams and today they match up against a better than average Florida International stop unit that’s allowed an average of just 19.9 points per game and has not allowed more than 6.0 yards per play in any game. Granted, FIU has faced mostly bad offensively teams but the Panthers have been 0.2 yards per play better than average after accounting for opposing offenses faced (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team) and they allowed an average of just 5.3 yppl to Pitt and UAB, the two better than average offensive teams they’ve faced. My math model does project 458 yards at 6.5 yppl for Marshall in this game but that’s much less than the Herd have been averaging and my math model gives Florida International a profitable 54% chance of covering and the math also favors the Under. Marshall has been a 4 game spread winning streak against those bad defensive teams but FIU has covered 5 of 6 and the Panthers’ games have gone over just once all season.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (46½) - MISSISSIPPI (-16½) 28 Tennessee 11
Ole’ Miss is now 6-0 ATS and while it looks like the line has finally caught up to how good the Rebels are, it still hasn’t quite got the total low enough. Mississippi has gone under the total in 5 of their 6 games and the Rebels are facing a defensively strong and offensively weak Tennessee team that has gone over just once all season. Mississippi has allowed an average of just 11.8 points this season and only 4.3 yppl despite facing a schedule of better than average offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Tennessee has averaged a defense 28.0 points in their 6 games, but that disguises the fact that the Volunteers are a below average offensive team that has managed to average only 4.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). The Vols are actually only 0.3 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Justin Worley in the game but are projected to gain just 247 yards at 3.5 yppl against a dominating Ole’ Miss defense.
Mississippi’s offense has also been good, averaging 6.3 yppl and 35.7 points per game and rating at 1.0 yppl better than average with quarterback Bo Wallace in the game but Tennessee’s defense is just as good, yielding only 4.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. That stalemate is projected to produce 402 total yards at 5.6 yppl for the Rebels. Overall the math favors Ole’ Miss by 17 points with a total of 38.5 points and a compensated points model also suggests that the total on this game is too high. Tennessee’s games have averaged 47.2 total points while their opponents have combined to average 55.0 total points per game – so the Vols’ games have been 7.8 points lower scoring than average based on their opponents’ combined average total points per game. Mississippi, meanwhile, has averaged a combined 47.5 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combines to average 56.0 total points per game, so the Rebels games have been 8.5 points lower scoring than their opponent’s average. If Tennessee is 7.8 points lower scoring than average and Mississippi’s games are 8.5 points lower scoring than average then it’s reasonable to project a game that is 16.3 points lower scoring than the national average of 55.6 total points, which puts the compensated points model prediction at 39.3 total points. A real compensated points model is a little more complicated than that but comes up with similar results. I like the Under here but 47 is a key number and I’ll insist on that number to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion from 45 to 46 ½ total points and I’d go UNDER 47 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet.
Strong Opinion - Nebraska (-6½) 33 NORTHWESTERN 21
Northwestern has played better since starting the season with home losses to Cal and Northern Illinois but Nebraska is just too good and the Wildcats are likely to lose by more than a touchdown even if they play as well as they have their last 3 games (2-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS). This game will be determined by how much Northwestern’s good defensive unit (5.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) can slow down an elite Nebraska offensive attack that has averaged 41.5 points on 533 yards per game at 7.0 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Northwestern has had mixed results against very good offensive teams, holding Cal to just 5.3 yppl (but 31 points) while giving up 6.4 yppl to Wisconsin (although just 14 points). Wisconsin is actually the better comparison to Nebraska because both teams rank among the best running teams in the nation and the Wildcats could not stop Wisconsin’s rushing attack, allowing 290 ground yards at 8.1 yards per rushing play. Wisconsin quarterbacks threw 4 interceptions, which is why Northwestern managed to win that game, but it’s certainly a concern for their defense today that they couldn’t stop Wisconsin’s ground game given that Nebraska has averaged 312 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per rushing play. Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong can also throw the ball (7.8 yards per pass play), so I expect Nebraska to move the ball pretty well in this game, as they bounce back from a poor performance against Michigan State’s good defense. I’d consider that bad outing (4.2 yppl) an outlier given that the Cornhuskers have averaged 6.8 yppl or more in all of their other 5 games, including 7.0 yppl against a good Miami-Florida defense. My model projects 452 yards at 6.2 yppl for Nebraska in this game but I realize there is some variance in that projection given the disparate results of Northwestern’s defense against the two good offenses they’ve faced and Nebraska’s equally divergent results agiasnt the two good defensive teams they’ve faced.
One thing that is easier to predict is that Northwestern’s sub-par offense (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) is likely to struggle against good Nebraska defense that’s yielded just 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. Northwestern has averaged 5.2 yppl or less in all of their games and was under 5.0 yppl in 5 of their 6 contests, so I’d be surprised if they got close to 5.0 yppl in this game. My math model gives Nebraska a very profitable 58.5% chance of covering based solely on the math but unfortunately the Huskers apply to a 25-65-2 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off their first loss of the season after starting the season with at least 5 wins. Nebraska did have a bye week to get over their loss to Michigan State, so I do think they’ll be focused – although that angle is 5-13 ATS even if the team is off a bye. Regardless, the situation is not nearly as strong as the line value in favor of Nebraska and I’ll consider Nebraska a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Notre Dame at Florida State
Strong Opinion – OREGON (-20½) 45 Washington 19
I’m not going to spend any time talking about this matchup since that’s not why I like Oregon here. My math model favors Oregon by 21.3 points (with a total of 63.9 points) and the reason I like the Ducks here is a very negative 24-82-1 ATS road underdog situation that applies to Washington based on their misleading upset of Cal (turnovers accounted for a 24 point swing in a 24 point win). Washington’s reputation and 5-1 record are enough to get the full attention of a Ducks team that played well last week at UCLA are knows they must continue that trend if they want to catch the attention of the playoff selection committee. I’ll consider Oregon a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less based on the strong situation.
Dr Bob
South Florida (-1½) 30 Tulsa 23
South Florida coach Willie Taggart is now 19-4-1 ATS on the road in his coaching career (after starting 0-2 ATS) and the Bulls apply to a solid 146-84-2 ATS statistical matchup indicator against a defensively soft Tulsa team that is allowing even bad offensive teams to have success. I like USF in this one.
Cincinnati (-13) 39 SMU 30
SMU has been better since head coach June Jones and Garrett Krstich was inserted as the starting quarterback. The SMU offense is still not good but Cincinnati has a horrible pass defense (8.4 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.8 yppp against an average defense), which is a favorable matchup for the pass heavy Mustangs, who average nearly 50 pass plays per game. Cincinnati will post some big offensive numbers, as other good teams have against SMU's defense but my math model projects a closer than expected game and for a lot of points to be scored.
LOUISVILLE (-17½) 30 NC State 12
My math model likes Louisville in this game but the Cardinals apply to a 26-64 ATS situation based on last week's disappointing loss to Clemson and NC State applies to a 143-73-4 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is based on their loss to BC. I'll pass on the side and lean with the Under as my math predicts that Louisville will continue to trend of going Under in every game.
NORTH CAROLINA (pick) 37 Georgia Tech 34
You may find it surprising that a 5-1 Georgia Tech team would be a pick with a North Carolina team that has lost 4 straight games, but the Tarheels' 4 losses have come against better than average competition and Georgia Tech's defense is much worse than the 25.0 points per game they've allowed would suggest. The Yellow Jackets have given up an average of 6.4 yards per play this season and the only two better than average offensive teams that they've faced gained 9.3 yppl (Georgia Southern) and 8.0 yppl (Miami-Florida). North Carolina has a better than average offense and the Tarheels are hungry from a win. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, applies to a negative 25-65-2 ATS situation that plays against teams following their first loss of the season.
MARYLAND (-5) 26 Iowa 19
Maryland played their first bad game of the season prior to last week’s bye, a 24-52 loss at Ohio State, but the bye week allowed starting quarterback C.J. Brown and other banged up members of the Terrapins to get some much needed healing in and the Terps should play well here. Maryland has been better than average both offensively (6.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) and the Terps have an edge over an Iowa team that had been 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense (just 5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) and 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). Overall, Iowa has a huge edge in yards per play but Iowa is projected to have the ball much, much longer so the total yards work out pretty evenly. Maryland’s deciding advantage is their outstanding special teams against Iowa’s sub-par special teams units. There is a 2.6 points per game difference in the place kicking alone between these teams and overall the math model likes Maryland enough for me to lean with the Terrapins despite an 89-35-1 ATS statistical match up indicator that favors Iowa.
LOUISIANA TECH (-12½) 27 Texas San Antonio 16
UTSA's top two quarterbacks are injured but that may turn out to be a blessing given how well freshman quarterback Austin Robinson played in his debut last week. Robinson completed 14 of 17 passes and averaged 7.4 yards per pass play while adding 68 yards on 13 runs against a better than average Florida International defense. My math model would favor Louisiana Tech by 13 1/2 based on UTSA's season numbers but it appears likely that Robinson is an upgrade at quarterback.
Western Kentucky (-5) 37 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 35
My math model gives Florida Atlantic a profitable 54% chance of covering based solely on the math but the Owls apply to a 12-56-1 ATS situation that is based on last week's upset loss. The worst part of that angle doesn't apply (it's not as bad for underdogs) so I'll still lean with FAU plus the points.
Army (-3½) 28 KENT STATE 21
Kent State is so bad offensively (11.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play against an easier than average schedule of defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) that the Golden Flashes are unlikely to take advantage of a horrible Army defense that's 1.4 yppl worse than average. Kent has faced 3 bad defensive teams (Ohio, Northern Illinois, and U Mass) and has averaged only 15 points in those games while not scoring more than 17 points in any game all season. So, there is evidence to suggest that they won't score much more than 17 points against Army, who held a horrible Wake Forest attack to just 24 points. I'll lean with the Cadets.
OHIO (+3) 25 Akron 24
Akron's starting quarterback Kyle Pohl is doubtful with a concussion but backup Tommy Woodosn's compensated numbers are exactly the same as Pohl's and Woodson has not thrown an interception in 53 passes (and Kohl only threw 3 in 210 pass attempts). Despite Akron's backup being the same level as the starter the line value favors Ohio here and it favors the over.
BOWLING GREEN (-2½) 36 Western Michigan 35
My math model likes Western Michigan in this game, giving the Broncos a 55.5% chance of covering based solely on the math. However, Bowling Green applies to a 101-35-6 ATS home momentum situation while Western Michigan applies to a very negative 17-64-1 ATS subset of a 118-223-5 ATS letdown situation. The math historically has an edge over the situations when both are significant so I'll lean with Western Michigan.
Army (-3½) 28 KENT STATE 21
Kent State is so bad offensively (11.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play against an easier than average schedule of defenses that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) that the Golden Flashes are unlikely to take advantage of a horrible Army defense that's 1.4 yppl worse than average. Kent has faced 3 bad defensive teams (Ohio, Northern Illinois, and U Mass) and has averaged only 15 points in those games while not scoring more than 17 points in any game all season. So, there is evidence to suggest that they won't score much more than 17 points against Army, who held a horrible Wake Forest attack to just 24 points. I'll lean with the Cadets.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-8) 33 Ball State 21
Central Michigan is improved offensively with star RB Thomas Rawls back the last 3 games (499 yard the last two) after missing weeks 3 and 4, and with All-Conference WR Titus Davis averaging 121 receiving yards per game the last 3 weeks after missing nearly all of the Chippewas' first 4 games (1 catch in game 1 before being hurt). The math model likes Central Michigan after making the adjustments for current personnel.
AIR FORCE (-9½) 33 New Mexico 19
Games between two option teams tend to go Under because teams that run an option offense usually have defenses and coaching staffs well versed in defending the option. Not only do I like the Under here for that reason but I also like Air Force based on my math model giving the Falcons a 55% chance of covering. I considered making Air Force a Best Bet but I find that games between two option teams can be more unpredictable than most games as far as the side is concerned. So, just leans with Air Force and the Under.
San Jose State (-2 1/2) 23 WYOMING 22
The math model favors San Jose State by just 1/2 a point with a total of 45 points.
COLORADO STATE (-5½) 30 Utah State 29
I've been on both of these teams as Best Bets the last two weeks for 4 wins and the math favors Utah State with Darell Garretson emerging as a star in place of injured QB Chuckie Keeton. Colorado State has a great offense (7.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) but Utah State's good defense (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) should slow that attack down while Garretson does enough against CSU's bad defense to keep this one interesting until the final gun.
SAN DIEGO STATE (-7) 28 Hawaii 21
My math model favors San Diego State by 7.5 points with at total of 49.5 points with Aztecs' starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler back in the lineup.
Strong Opinion – OVER (64½) – TROY (-6½) 41 Appalachian State 33
Troy and Appalachian State are two of the worst defensive teams in the FBS, as Troy ranks 117th in my defensive ratings at 1.1 yards per play worse than average while Appalachian State ranks 124th out of 128 teams at 1.9 yppl worse than average. I expect both offenses to take advantage, as Appalachian State has a pretty decent attack that has averaged 5.8 yppl (excluding their 66-0 win over a horrible Campbell team) against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and the Mountaineers have been a bit better than that when starting quarterback Taylor Lamb has been in the game. Appalachian has faced three bad defensive teams in Campbell, Southern Miss and Liberty, who have an average defensive rating that is just 0.1 yppl worse than Troy’s defense at home and the Mounties have averaged 44.5 points in those 3 games and just scored 48 points (all in regulation) in an overtime loss to Liberty last week. My math model projects 506 yards at 6.9 yppl and 33 points for Appalachian State in this game.
Appalachian’s defense is horrendous, as if you couldn’t tell by giving up 48 points in regulation to Liberty, as the Mountaineers have allowed 35 points per game even if you include their shutout against Campbell, a team that is about 43 points worse than an average FBS team (which is why I threw that game out of my model). Appalachian has allowed 40.4 points per game (in regulation) in their other 5 games and Troy, while 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively, has averaged 38 points in two games against bad defensive teams (Abilene Christian and New Mexico State), who are both better defensively than Appalachian State is. My model projects 529 yards and 41 points for the Trojans in this game.
Overall the math favors Troy by 8 with a total of 74 ½ points and normally that would be a big enough difference to trigger a Best Bet. However, my model doesn’t do as well with high totals, so while there is certainly value with the over I will resist making this a Best Bet. I’ll consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 66 points or less.
Strong Opinion – New Mexico State (+5) 36 IDAHO 35
Winless Idaho take on a New Mexico State team that has lost 5 straight games since starting the season with two minor upset wins. Both of these teams rank among the worst FBS teams in the nation but I rate New Mexico State as the better team overall and this is a good matchup for the Aggies. Idaho has the worst defense in the nation, allowing an average of 39.2 points and 496 yards per game at 7.6 yards per play despite facing a below average slate of opposing offensive units that would combine to average only 21.8 points and 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. New Mexico State has a horrible offense that rates at 1.4 yppl worse than average (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average attack. However, that’s 1.1 yppl better than Idaho’s defense and New Mexico State has averaged 29 points in 6 games other than against LSU, so they’ve proven that they can score on worse than average defensive teams. Now the Aggies are facing a defense much worse than any they’ve faced and the Vandals have allowed 34 points or more in every game they’ve played this season, including allowing an average of 36 points to two teams (UL Monroe and South Alabama) that are just as bad offensively as New Mexico State is. My math model projects just over 36 points for the Aggies in this game, which is certainly reasonable based on Idaho’s consistently bad defensive efforts.
Idaho’s offense is a bit better than New Mexico State’s offense, as the Vandals rate at 1.0 yppl worse than average (4.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and the Aggies’ defense has been 1.2 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team). What works for New Mexico State here, from a matchup perspective, is that the Aggies’ defensive weakness is defending the run, which is not likely to be taken full advantage of by an Idaho offense that prefers to throw the ball (50 pass plays per game). New Mexico State actually has allowed more yards per rushing play (6.5 yprp) than they have allowed per pass play (6.4 yppp), which is extremely rare. The Aggies are 1.7 yprp worse than average and have been only 0.2 yppp worse than average. However, I have noticed that New Mexico State’s pass defense numbers have an interesting split. They’ve given up just 30 passing yards at 2.7 yppp against the 3 teams that have option elements (Cal Poly and New Mexico are pure option teams and Georgia Southern runs elements of the option like Auburn does) but have struggled against non-option teams. I decided to adjust New Mexico State’s pass defensive numbers to reflect this trend since it’s very pronounced but the Aggies still rate much better against the pass than against the run, which is good against a pass heavy team like Idaho. My math model projects only 36 points for the Vandals in which shapes up to be a toss-up game based on how these teams have played thus far. The math model gives the Aggies a profitable 54.2% chance of covering and I’ll consider New Mexico State a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d make the Aggies a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
LT Profits
Baylor vs West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia +8
The Baylor Bears were challenged for the first time all year last week and they trailed an excellent TCU team by 21 points early in the fourth quarter before rallying for the exhilarating 61-58 win. Things will not get any easier here with the Bears playing in a wild environment in Morgantown visiting the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mounties are 4-2 and they were competitive vs. national powerhouses in the two losses losing 33-23 at Alabama and 45-33 to Oklahoma. Perhaps the biggest key here for West Virginia besides its usually large home field advantage is that it is allowing only 213.7 passing yards per game on 6.4 yards per attempt, so the Mountaineers could possibly rattle Baylor’s Bryce Petty playing at home. And remember the West Virginia offense is not shoddy either ranking eighth nationally in total offense. Baylor is 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 games as a conference road favorite of -3 or more.
SPORTS WAGERS
WEST VIRGINIA +8 over Baylor
After escaping the clutches of TCU in a thrilling 61-58 shootout, the Baylor Bears will now travel to Morgantown, West Virginia in what will be billed a showdown between two of the nation’s best quarterbacks. This is none other than Baylor’s Bryce Petty and West Virginia’s Clint Trickett. When a team can score 50 points in their sleep like the Bears can, it’s difficult to put up an accurate number that will “balance the books”. Throw in the fact that the Bears are 6-0 and what we have here is an inflated number that we’ll attempt to exploit.
West Virginia is just 4-2 on the season, however, it must be noted that West Virginia’s two losses came against two top-five ranked opponents in Alabama and Oklahoma. In retrospect, West Virginia lost both games by double digits but the score was not indicative of the quality of both its performances. The Mountaineers feature two excellent receivers in Kevin White and Mario Alford and an obvious superior talent in Clint Trickett that can deliver them the ball effectively. The speed of White and Alford can give any defense fits and for a Baylor defense that surrendered 58 points against TCU, it is certainly feasible that the Mountaineers put up an extremely crooked number on Baylor again. West Virginia has played the tougher schedule and that figures to serve them well here. We also have the highly ranked Baylor Bears spotting road points to a formidable unranked opponent, which is an angle that has a profitable return and one we’ll look to take advantage of.
CALIFORNIA +6½ over UCLA
The California Golden Bears have resurrected their program, after suffering a deplorable campaign in 2013 that culminated in an atrocious record of 1-11. Now, Sonny Dykes has successfully implemented his “Bear Raid” offense and he has a quarterback in Jared Goff that has effectively and efficiently anchored this successful unit. The 4-2 Bears would be 5-1 if they did not fall victim to a game-winning Hail Mary against a then undefeated Arizona Wildcats team in Phoenix, last month. Now, the Golden Bears will play host to a UCLA team that enters on a two-game losing streak after beginning the season as a top-10 squad with many analysts predicting the Bruins had the potential to win a national championship. The Bears enter the game after suffering a crushing 24-point defeat at the hands of an apparently good Washington Huskies team and perhaps that huge loss has painted the Golden Bears in a different color entering this contest. However, that was a look-ahead game with this on deck and now we get to take advantage of a favorable number because of that 31-7 loss. The Bears have outdueled both Washington State and Colorado, teams that feature prolific quarterbacks like Connor Halliday and Sefo Liiufau.
On the other side, UCLA has had too many sluggish showings this season which included one at Virginia to start the season and they didn’t look much sharper in Week 2 against Memphis, as that game was tied 35-35 in the fourth quarter before UCLA won by 7. Quarterback Brett Hundley is completing a high percentage of his passes but the Bruins offensive line has struggled in each game, as Hundley takes numerous sacks almost every game and that takes a toll. The Bruins have talent at the skill positions and obviously have the offensive firepower to come in here and leave victorious but this is an overpriced squad that can’t be laying this type of weight to a rising program ready to play its best game of the season.
Missouri +5½ over FLORIDA
After suffering a 34-0 shutout at home against Bulldog Nation last week, the Missouri Tigers stock significantly this week and that makes us instant buyers. Truth be told, the Bulldogs were clearly overlooked last week, due the suspension of their star rusher Todd Gurley and many failed to realize the Red and Black are anchored by a talented crop of running backs and wide receivers, complemented by an athletic defense that has finally played up to its full potential. Missouri is an excellent team and has some dynamic playmakers in Russell Hansborough and Marcus Murphy and in no way should they be a bigger pooch against Florida than they were against Georgia, no matter where the game is being played.
The Gators on the other hand have appeared in poor form all season. The program is currently in disarray from a variety of off the field issues. In addition to this, the Gators have also struggled mightily on defense all year and have one home win to their credit, a controversial overtime escape against Kentucky. We have already seen this season what happens when Missouri is undervalued on the road against a suspect and mediocre challenger when they went into #13 South Carolina and defeated the Gamecocks by a point. Mizzou QB, Maty Mauk could have the worst day of his career and still be the best QB on the field today. Coming off a rather humiliating loss, a big bounce back by the Tigers against a very beatable team is likely to occur. Don’t be afraid to play Mizzou outright in a couple of money line parlays. We’re calling for the upset.
W.Michigan +120 over BOWLING GREEN
It’s easy to get caught up in the Falcons’ impressive 3-0 road record but what sticks out to us is a defense that is statistically ranked among the worst in the country. Furthermore, the Falcons have been walking a tight rope by winning three of their five games by less than three points, which includes a one-point victory over Buffalo two weeks ago. Bowling Green’s signature win this year occurred against Frank Solich’s Ohio Bobcats. However, Ohio has regressed badly this season and it’s worth noting that the Falcons were absolutely destroyed by W. Kentucky, Nebraska and even UMass hung a 42 on them. Bowling Green’s 3-0 record in the MAC comes courtesy of playing the conference weaklings. Things are about to change for this imposter.
We’re now directed our focus towards one Jarvion Franklin. He is Western Michigan’s secret weapon. Franklin could be one of the best running backs in the country, rushing for 15 touchdowns on the year in just six games. Franklin complements this impressive feat with over 850 yards on the ground, averaging over 140 yards of rushing per game. That figures to bode well against Falcons non-existent defense that allows 217.9 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are the much more balanced team that actually has a defense. WMU’s three losses occurred against Toledo, Purdue and Va Tech and the loss to conference leader Toledo was by just one point. We think this year's Broncos team can take a punch and keep swinging and much prefer them to execute at a high level. WMU outright.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
ALABAMA -13 over Texas A&M: The last couple of year the Tide has really struggled with this Aggies team, but that was with Johnny Football at QB. Now Kenny Hill is the QB and while he had a great start to his season, he has shown the last few weeks that maybe he is just not as good as that start showed. Now he faces a very tough Bama defense that will be looking for some payback after allowing Texas A&M to put up 71 points on them the last 2 years combined. The Aggie defense looked very good earlier in the year vs some weak competition, but in their last 3 games vs stronger offenses they have allowed 460 ypg and 37 ppg. The Tide's offense has sputtered in the last two weeks but this still is a very good offense that ranks 20th in total yards and averages 33.2 ppg. The Tide has not played very well overall in their last 2 games and I feel they will take it out on the Aggies in this one. The Tide is still in the thick of the playoff race and will get back on track with a win of at least 17 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: The Aggies are 0-18 ATS as road dogs after being in the role as a home favorite.
Akron/ Ohio Under 42: This game figures to be a very low scoring game as both offenses have struggled this year, but the defenses haven't been all that bad. Akron comes in having scored 60 points in their last two games, but that was vs Miami-Oh and Eastern Michigan's defenses, plus it was also with QB Pohl, who is listed as doubtful in this game. On defense, the Zips have been very solid and have allowed just 11.2 ppg in games they have played vs teams NOT named Marshall. This is a very good defense and without Pohl in their on offense they will be a very conservative group as well. Ohio put up 70 points combined vs FCS Foe Eastern Illinois and FBS weakling Idaho, but in their other 5 games they have averaged just 11.4 ppg in their other 5 games. I can see both teams having problems scoring in this one as we get a game in the lower 30's at best.
North Carolina/ Georgia Tech Over 70: North Carolina has already played 4 games in the 80s or higher this year and this one could be another. The Heels run a high tempo explosive offense that has averaged 433 ypg and 37 ppg. Last week they hung 43 points on one of the best defenses in the nation, but unfortunately for them their defense allowed 50. The defense has been a sore spot for this team all year as they have allowed 50+ points 3 times so far, on their way to allowing 508 ypg and 43.3 ypg for the year. This is a bad defense. Georgia Tech comes in averaging 33 ppg, so I do look for them to get plenty of points tonight vs this very bad defense. The Ga Tech defense is very average, but few teams have stopped the Heels this year and I don't expect them to be able to do so here. Punters can take the day off as this one hits 75+ points.
Stanford/ Arizona State Under 54: Last week the Stanford defense kept a high powered Washington State offense in check as they allowed just 266 yards and 17 points in the game. The Cardinal have now allowed just 238 ypg (2nd in nation) and 10 ppg (1st in nation), and have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game thus far. Arizona State averages 41.2 ypg, but have yet to face a defense close to the one they are facing tonight. They did put 38 on USC last week, but we have seen that the USC defense is not as good as thought to be entering the year. The Sun Devil defense is very bad, but Stanford does run a conservative ball control offense, which will keep the clock rolling and keep that high powered ASU offense on the sideline where they can't do any damage. The Under is 11-1 in Stanford's last 12 games vs a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 road games. Both trend should continue here as this one is played in the 40's.
BEST OF THE REST
Army/ Kent State Under 51.5: This Kent State offense is pathetic this year as they rank 123rd in the nation in total yards and 127th in scoring (11.8 ppg), while not scoring more than 17 points in a game so far. They will be taking on a bad Army defense, but they only scored 17 points on a bad UMass defense last week, so just cause they are playing a bad defense doesn't mean they will score allot. The Army offense is all about the run and that will help keep the clock moving. Army has been involved in some high scoring games this year, but this will not be one of them.
NORTHWESTERN +7 over Nebraska: This has been a tight series as he last 3 meetings have all been decided by a FG or less and the Cats have been playing much better than the start that put them at 0-2 out the gate. They have won 3 of their last 4 games, which includes a 20-14 win over Wisconsin on this same field. Nebraska has had a nice start this year, but really who have they played. They beat Miami by 10 and lost to Michigan State on the road by 5 points. The rest of their schedule has consisted of FAU/ McNeese State (who they struggled with), Fresno State and Illinois. Not murderers row by any stretch. The Cats play very good defense and Nebraska had problems moving the Ball on the only good defense they have played this year, in Michigan State. The Husker defense isn’t all that great and I feel that Northwestern will score enough to keep the game close, and maybe even outright. I look for the Cats to pull another upset here or at the very least this should be another game decided by a FG or less.
Missouri/ Florida Under 47: The Missouri offense is having problems scoring right now and this gator’s defense is allot better than they showed last week and vs Alabama a few weeks ago. I feel they will get back on track defensively in this one. The Gator offense woke up a bit last week, but this offense isn’t really geared to do it two weeks in a row and they may be a bit flat after their battle with the Tigers last week. Just don’t see this game nearing 50 points at all.
Don Best Consensus
Washington at Oregon
Pick: Washington
Washington is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and new HC Peterson has stated he will make this a rivalry again. Oregon looked great on the road last week however UCLA's defense ranks in the bottom half of the NCAA rankings. Washington ranks 27th against the run, allowing only 3.08ypc and 3tds on the season. Oregon is expected to win however they have not been running up the score since HC Kelly left for the NFL - the Ducks are just 2-4 ATS this season including 0-4 on spreads over 20.
Jeff Alexander
Texas-San Antonio +13
UTSA has struggled since playing well against Houston and Arizona the first 2 weeks of the season. However, it managed to end a four-game skid with a win last week and enters this contest with momentum on its side. The Roadrunners are not getting the respect they deserve here. They return 20 starters from a team that kicked Louisiana Tech 30-10 last season. They were 16.5-point favorites in that game and now they're catching 13 points. Louisiana Tech may be off a bye, but that's still way too much of a line swing. The Bulldogs rolled over UTEP last time out but are on a 6-20 ATS slide off a win of 21 points or more over a conference foe. The Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. The Roadrunners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games and 18-9 ATS all-time as an underdog under coach Coker. Plays on road teams that scored and allowed 17 points or less last game are 56-19 ATS the last 10 seasons provided their opponent scored 24 points or more in the first half of its last game.
John Ryan
Kentucky +344
The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Looking at the matchups, this could be the shocker of the day even though nether team is playing for any conference title hopes at this point. However, Kentucky is a proven 5-1 and off to one of their best starts in years while LSU already has a disappointing 2-loss season and are accustomed to playing deep into the season with title hopes and greater aspirations. LSU is just 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games after playing 2 straight conference games since 1992; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry in the Miles era. I am confident that Kentucky will contain the LSU ground attack (not stop it). I believe you will see solid stops on first down and force LSU into passing situations, which is by far their greatest weakness presently. Kentucky will run a balanced offensive attack that will keep LSU off balance and guessing and if Kentucky can win the turnover battle, they just might win this game SU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-12 mark using the Money Line and has made a whopping 37 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a road team using the money line (KENTUCKY) after 3 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. The average play as been a +142 under dog.
Tony Karpinski
Kansas State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Kansas State +7½
Kansas State has themselves a very solid offensive team built around Charles Jones. This will be their 1st road game in 4 games, so going to Oklahoma will be tricky. Oklahoma also comes in with a very big offense, dropping 45 or more in 3 games this year. Big game at home, where they seem to blow teams out, the majority of the time. The Big 12 has been awesome this year, with a lot of top notch play in the conference. Kansas State has to give their defense a chance to rest, they cannot leave them on the field all game long. Kansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games and always plays tough when they are underdogs.
Will Rogers
Florida vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Washington Capitals will put their undefeated record to the test tonight as they host the Florida Panthers. The visitors started the season with three consecutive losses, but managed to pick up a win against at Buffalo last night. I think they'll suffer a let down against a hot Washington team tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Panthers Inefficiency - The visitors have only managed to average one goal per game over their first four. Their special teams have been a disaster, only scoring one power play goal on 18 opportunities while allowing six goals in shorthanded situations for a nasty 72.7% kill rate.
2. Alexander Ovechkin - The 29 year old Russian led the NHL in scoring in 2013-2014 with his 51 goals. He's already tallied five in the first four games this season.
3. X-factor - The Captitals have won nine of the last 10 meetings overall, and 14 of the last 17 meetings at Verizon Center.
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