Scott Delaney
My free winner is out of the SEC tonight, as I'm siding with the Georgia Bullogs against the Arkansas Razorbacks. I know this whole Todd Gurley odeal has been a distraction, but it's also serving as motivation for a team that was labeled as one of the nation's best at the start of the season.
And that wasn't just because of Gurley. There was more to it than that, as many said this was the best TEAM coach Mark Richt fielded in quite some time. So when you say the Bulldogs' championship hopes have been dashed because of Gurley's absence, well, it's somewhat disrespectful.
The Dawg will be hungry for this one, and we could see another dominating performance, like the one we witnessed against Missouri last week.
Look for Georgia's defensive front to get after it in this game, and once it's established its presence, and dominanace, it won't ease up. Where I think you'll find this come into play is with stamina and a mental standpoint. See, Arkansas is coming off an all-out brawl in a physical game at Alabama. On the other hand, the Bulldogs got to rest some guys, and get the reserves some playing time in their lopsided win over Missouri.
Lay the road chalk here, as the Bulldogs continue to prove themselves - as a team.
2♦ GEORGIA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Rutgers in Big 10 Conference play.
Yes, I realize laying this many points with a defense that is spotty at best is a bit of a gamble, but the only time I don't like betting on OSU is during night games... they don't seem to play as well under the lights as they do during day games.
So far Ohio State has had two bye weeks and three impressive wins since that devastating game vs. Virginia Tech, and I have a good feeling they'll be more than ready to play again this afternoon... especially against a team that has just one three-point loss all season.
Rutgers is riding high right now but hasn't really been challenged all season to this point. By the numbers, they actually pose a bigger threat to the Buckeyes than any of their previous opponents... but again I say that's because of the lack of competition they've played to date.
Rutgers won't be able to stop Ohio State's running game, and as long as JT Barrett doesn't turn the ball over a bunch, the Buckeyes should be able to win this by 28 or more.
Take Ohio State as your free play of the day.
4♦ OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the underdog Tigers as they visit the Swamp for a night time meeting with the Gators.
Florida found yet another way to lose a game, as they blew the lead last week at home against LSU in a 30-27 loss. That puts Coach Muschamp at just 2-3 against the spread this season, and now 6-16-1 ATS their past 23 lined games!
Mizzou went down about as hard as you go go down, last week as they turned the football over 5 times en-route to an ugly 34-0 home loss to Georgia. Have to expect a fired up effort from the Tigers who did win last year's meeting against UF, and have covered the last pair in this series.
The Tigers are also 9-2 versus the spread their last 11 games following a loss under Gary Pinkel.
Only a matter of time before Will Muschamp is out in Florida, and this game adds another nail to his coffin.
Take the Tigers plus the points.
1♦ MISSOURI
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday is on the Virginia Cavaliers over the Duke Blue Devils, as I think the wrong team is favored here, and we just might see an upset.
I am putting this one on Virginia's defense, as I'm counting on it to stop the Blue Devils, specifically their rushing game. In Duke’s lone setback this year, Duke was limited to 85 yards rushing at Miami. But in the Devils' five wins, their averaging 257 yards on the ground. Virginia boasts the ACC’s second-best rush defense, and comes into this one after slowing Pitt’s James Conner to a season-low 83 yards.
I know Virginia hasn’t won at Duke since 2006, and I realize the Cavaliers have lost three straight at Wallace Wade Stadium by an average final of 43-23, and I also acknowledge I'm well aware Virginia has lost six straight road games, dating back to Nov. 3, 2012. However, I'm giving the Cavaliers the benefit of the doubt, as they've already snapped long droughts against ranked opponents, ACC opponents and FBS opponents.
Look for the Cavs to hang around in this one, and make a run at the end of the game, looking for the outright.
1♦ VIRGINIA
Brad Wilton
Willing to go with Georgia Tech as they hit Chapel Hill off their first loss of the season last week to Duke.
G-Tech faces a North Carolina team that will suffer a letdown after taking undefeated Notre Dame down to the wire in a loss at South Bend. Yet again the Tar Heels defense was gouged, allowing 50 points to be scored against them. That marks the third time in the last four games the Heels have allowed at least 50 points or more to be hung on them.
The Yellow Jackets have gone 3-0-1 as the road favorite since the '12 season, and Paul Johnson has had his way in this series with a 5-0 straight up mark, and a 4-0-1 spread mark in those meetings.
North Carolina is just 1-4-1 against the spread in their 6 games played this season.
Tech notches another series win and cover over UNC on Saturday.
3♦ GEORGIA TECH
Jeffrey James
Georgia -4
I know that RB Gurley is out but did you see what Georgia did last week without him? All they did was win 34 - 0 at Missouri. Now they get to take on an Arkansas team off of a hard fought loss last week to Alabama. The Razorbacks will be on a big downer off of that game and they have only covered 1 of their last 4 games at home against Georgia. Take the Bulldogs to get this win and cover as the play of the day.
Dr Bob
Strong Opinion – OVER (56½) - FLORIDA STATE (-10) 35 Notre Dame 30
Florida State is not nearly as good as they were last season and Notre Dame is not nearly as good as their lofty ranking. Let’s break down this battle of overrated teams. Florida State’s offense is the best unit on the field and while not as potent as they were last season the Seminoles are still dangerous and have been 1.5 yards per play better than average with Jameis Winston on the field. Winston’s numbers have declined with a couple of last year’s star receivers now playing for money but he’s still been 1.8 yards per pass play better than average with 8.3 yppp coming against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. The rushing attack has been 0.8 yards per rushing play better than average with Winston in the game (Clemson stacked the line to stop the run with Winston out, which explains the 3.0 yprp in that game) and overall the pass heavy Seminoles’ attack rates at 1.5 yards per play better than average. Notre Dame’s defense is getting a lot of bad press for allowing 43 points to North Carolina last week but they only gave up 6.1 yards per play in that game, which is not that bad given that the Tarheels would average 5.9 yppl on the road against an average FBS defensive unit. Overall the Irish have allowed just 5.0 yppl this season to a collection of opposing offenses that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit, so they’ve actually been pretty good defensively. My math model still projects 454 yards at 6.6 yppl for the Seminoles in this game.
The big difference between this year’s Florida State team and last year’s dominating squad is the defense. Last year’s defense was among the best in the nation while this season the Seminoles are only 0.2 yards per play better than average, giving up 5.2 yppl to 5 FBS opponents that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Florida State dominated a horrendous Wake Forest offense in week 6 but they have allowed 6.0 yppl or more in 3 of their last 4 games (Clemson, NC State and Syracuse without star QB Hunt). Notre Dame is the best offensive teams that the Seminoles have played so far this season (0.7 yppl better than average) and the math projects 442 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Irish in this game.
Overall, the math likes Notre Dame and the Over and I think I like the over the most given that the total is close to the national average yet both offenses have a pretty significant advantage over the opposing defense in this game. Plus, while situations favor both sides in this game the stronger situations favor Florida State, which will keep Notre Dame from being a play (although I obviously still like the Irish). I’ll consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 58 points or less.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -½ +100 over Philadelphia
Regulation only. The Flyers have picked up two out of a possible eight points with two OT losses and two outright losses to Boston and New Jersey. Overall, the Flyers have surrendered 14 goals in their past three games and things are about to get a whole lot tougher for this laboring franchise. After this game, Philadelphia has Chicago and Pittsburgh on deck, followed by games against Detroit, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay and Florida. They may not get its first win of the season until Game 10 and that’s because they are one of the most beatable teams in the league. Indeed the Flyers can put the puck in the net but too often they are going to “chasing” the game, which is a difficult way to roll. With a defense that gets forced into making poor decisions and numerous mistakes, Philly is really up against it here.
The Stars best game of the year occurred at home when they were on the wrong side of a 2-1 score to the Blackhawks. Fact is, the Stars dominated that game in both shots on net and time of possession in the offensive end. That game took a lot out of them and they proceeded to lose its next game in Nashville and suddenly they were 0-2. Dallas then reeled off back-to-back road wins in Columbus and Pittsburgh and they were extremely impressive in both. They fell behind the Penguins 2-0 seven minutes in and then did not allow another goal for the remainder of the game. Dallas is absolutely loaded. They can wreak havoc on weak defenses with its relentless fore-check and a bevy of several qualified snipers. Now the Stars play just their second home game of the year and after losing their first game here, they MUST establish American Airlines Arena as a nightmare venue for the opposition. Invest with confidence.
Tampa Bay +111 over VANCOUVER
OT included. The Canucks are undefeated in three games but do we really know what type of team they are yet? Here’s what we do know. Vancouver has played Edmonton twice and Calgary once. That’s not exactly the cream of the crop. In fact, the Oilers are winless in five games and Vancouver is the only team that had difficulty defeating them, not once, but twice. Vancouver’s opening night win over the Flames was a strong effort but it was the first game of the year for both sides and Calgary was actually quite flat in that contest. Truth is, the Canucks have not been battle tested yet and while we like what we see in their efforts so far, they are taking a big step up in class here.
Tampa Bay is just 2-2 but they have dominated three games in terms of shots on goal and time of possession in the opposing end. They outshot the Habs 41-17 in a 7-1 victory and outshot the Sens 40-34 in a 3-2 OT loss. In fact, the Lightning has outshot each of their first four opponents and have not allowed more than two goals against in regulation to any of them. We also like that the Bolts have yet to play on the road and this is their first game of a five-game trip through the Canadian West Coast and ending in Minnesota. Teams often put forth their best effort in the first game of such a trip in an attempt to set the tone for the remainder of it. The Lightning are a quality outfit that is playing tremendous defense and that is getting great goaltending from Ben Bishop. A Vancouver victory would not be a surprise but we have to give the Bolts at least an equal or better chance of winning and that prompts us to step in and play the value.
NEW JERSEY -½ +165 over San Jose
3-way betting, regulation only. We’re going to give the Devils a mulligan in its last game, as they opened the year 3-0 and had this home opener on deck when they lost to the Capitals on Thursday. The Devils are so difficult to play against because they seldom sway from their style of jamming up the neutral zone and making it hard for the opposition to get anything going. Devils GM, Lou Lamoriello is a master of his craft and knows exactly what pieces his club needs to improve. Lamoriello addressed those weaknesses in the off-season and the Devils are once again going to be one of the toughest outs in the East. That said, this one is more about fading the most overrated team in the league.
We often hear or read about the “power in the West” that consists of Los Angeles, Chicago, Anaheim, St. Louis and San Jose. There are other powers this season that may include Dallas and Minnesota but from our vantage point, you can remove the Sharks. The Sharks remind us of the Canucks a few years back when Vancouver’s window of opportunity closed quickly. San Jose’s window is now closed after they blew a 3-0 series lead over the Kings in last year’s epic playoff collapse. We now look at this team and see a bunch of older players that look much slower than previous years. Logan Couture looks like a fraction of his former self. The Sharks’ have one scoring line that is logging big minutes while the rest of the cast is a match and mix of whomever Todd McLellan throws together. San Jose’s defense isn’t even average with a collection of unproven players like Jason Demers, Mirco Mueller, Matt Irwin and Justin Braun. Yeah, Brent Burns is somewhat reliable but he’s an offensive defenseman that often gets caught up ice. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is the only stable presence behind the blue-line. San Jose has picked up seven out of a possible eight points and while that looks very nice on paper, truth is, they have been extremely lucky so far. Against the Islanders last night, San Jose was outshot 45-23 and played practically the entire game in its own end. In that 6-5 shootout win over Washington, they were outshot 34-23 but everything got past Braden Holtby. In its 3-0 win over Winnipeg, they were again outshot, 30-26. In fact, San Jose is in the bottom three in average shots on net per game. The Sharkies had 23 shots on net in two games, 26 in one other and 30 in the other. They have not held a possession edge in any game either. So, yeah, the Sharkies are 3-0-0-1 but pretty it was not. The effects of choking every year in the playoffs and doing nothing to improve is going to hit this team hard in much the same way it hit the Canucks. Put San Jose high on our fade radar and we’ll put that to the test here.
RJ Robbins
Cincinnati vs. SMU
Play: SMU +13
SMU finally found it's offense couple of weeks ago against East Carolina. Look for SMU QB Garrett Krstich who went 42-67 for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns vs ECU to put up enough points keep SMU in this contest. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS this year and now is a DD favorite on the road.
BIG AL
Stanford at Arizona State
Pick: Stanford
Taylor Kelly, the first-string Sun Devil quarterback, may return for this game from a foot injury. But Arizona St. certainly didn't miss him in its last game, a 38-34 win at USC, as ASU threw for over 500 yards in that game to pull an upset as an 11.5-point underdog. This is the classic match-up of offense vs. defense. Stanford is giving up just 10 points per game (against opponents who score 29.1 ppg), while Arizona St. is scoring 41.2 ppg (vs. opponents who give up just 32.7 ppg). In match-ups like this, I generally favor the defensive-oriented club, and I'm not going to make an exception here. Indeed, NCAA teams that give up 14 points or less are 55% ATS over the past 35 years, at Game 6 forward, against opponents that give up more than 14 points, provided our defensive juggernaut is not favored by 10 or more points. And this system is red-hot right now, with 11 straight covers since October 26 of last year. And we had two plays out of this system last week. Duke beat Georgia Tech, and the Blue Devils were giving up just 13.6 ppg going into that contest. And Mississippi upset Texas A&M, and the Rebels were giving up just 10.2 ppg heading into that game. Stanford has won four straight in this series, by an average of more than 15 ppg, and I'll lay the short price with the much better defensive ballclub on Saturday.
Bruce Marshall
Nevada at BYU
Pick: Nevada
Once upon a time, BYU could go to the bench and bring in a Steve Young to replace Jim McMahon at QB. Not so fortunate this season, however, as Taysom Hill's leg injury has forced the far more-limited sr. Christian Stewart into the lineup. BYU will have a hard time pulling away from a capable Nevada side that has been close vs. all top-level foes (Arizona, Boise State, Colorado State) this season.
Tony Bucca
Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina +1
I really liked what I saw last week vs Notre Dame. A lot of heart for a change and efficient offense and a real chance to win the game. Different talent levels led to a loss but tonight they play someone who they could beat. Will they stop the run? Absolutely not, their defense is terrible. But continued scoring on offense vs a ball control running game should give them the opportunity to win on a late game TD.
ASA
Boston College +5
Clemson enters this game with their starting QB Deshaun Watson on the shelf. Watson was injured in last week’s tight win over Louisville. He has been the best player on Clemson’s offense throwing for 12 TD’s and rushing for 3 more. The Tigers really struggled offensively after losing him last week. They won the game 23-17 but only scored 9 points on offense with their 2 TD’s coming from the defensive side of the ball. BC has been very solid this year. They whipped USC here earlier in the year and they are coming off a dominating road win @ NC State. The Eagles are 7th nationally rushing for nearly 300 YPG. Clemson will struggle again offensively with a back up QB against a very stout BC defense allowing just 289 YPG (14th nationally). Boston College wins this one outright.
Jeff Scott
3 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/Ole Miss Under 46: This Ole Miss defense is for real, as they come in ranked 13th in total yards and 2nd in points allowed giving up just 11.8 ppg. At home they have allowed just 305.3 ypg and 12 ppg, while Tennessee has averaged just 357 ypg and 21 ppg on the road. This is not an explosive offense and they also are not really a hurry up offense either. I see them struggling to score too many points vs this tough Ole Miss defense. For Ole Miss their problems on offense are running the ball and stopping the run is the weakness of the Vols, so I do look for Ole Miss to try and run the ball more here, which will eat clock. they will have to run the ball to loosen up a pass defense that ranks 6th in the nation, allowing just 160 ypg through the air so far. Overall the Vols have allowed just 19.2 ppg on the year and that ranks 21st in the nation. The Under is 0-5 in the Rebels last 5 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 games overall. Both trends should continue here as this one is played in the mid 30's at best.
BEST OF THE REST
Nevada +12 Over BYU: BYU is not the same team without Taysom hill in there and there defense is not as stout as was expect this year. Even Before Taysom went out BYU was not playing dominant football, beating Virginia and Houston but just 8 points each in their 2 wins prior to the current 2 game losing streak. During their last 4 games the Cougars have allowed 31 ppg, compared to just 8.5 ppg in their first two games and now they face a solid Nevada offense that has averaged 28.5 ppg on the year. The Nevada defense is not all that good and BYU will score on them, but I just don't see the Cougars getting enough stops defensively to win this one easily.
OC Dooley
Florida International +21.5
It is easy to see why undefeated Marshall who has successfully covered the spread all but once in six game has been cast as a prohibitive favorite. Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato is attempting to set an all-time NCAA record this evening (originally set by Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson) tossing a touchdown pass in 39 consecutive contests. Marshall is the only offense in the country to put at least forty points on the scoreboard each week while on the other side of the football their defense is ranked #13 nationally in average touchdowns yielded per week. Despite the statistical advantages one had to consider that tonight is the third time in the past month that Marshall has had to play on the highway. More importantly the last time Florida International played in front of their HOME fans they were nearly a full touchdown underdog pulling off an OUTRIGHT upset versus a geographical rival (Florida Atlantic). At most offshore locations the total for this game opened at 59 points which opens door to a rather shocking long term statistic. When the posted spot is between 56’-and-63 points and the team is playing on the “road” Marshall has been for investors (2-10 ATS) a financial disaster