Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 19

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Detroit at Boston
The Red Sox look to close out the series and build on their 4-0 record in Clay Buchholz' last 4 starts against the Tigers at home. Boston is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120)

Game 925-926: Detroit at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.410; Boston (Buchholz) 17.865
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under

NHL

Carolina at NY Islanders
The Islanders look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 4-10 in its last 14 road games. New York is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-135)

Game 1-2: Vancouver at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.575; Pittsburgh 11.641
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+150); Over

Game 3-4: Edmonton at Ottawa (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.124; Ottawa 11.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-175); Under

Game 5-6: Colorado at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.863; Buffalo 10.209
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-170); Under

Game 7-8: Nashville at Montreal (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.325; Montreal 10.202
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+160); Over

Game 9-10: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.841; Tampa Bay 12.137
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Over

Game 11-12: Minnesota at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.951; Florida 10.313
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Under

Game 13-14: NY Rangers at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.064; New Jersey 9.778
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+105); Over

Game 15-16: Carolina at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.212; NY Islanders 11.913
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-135); Under

Game 17-18: Columbus at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.310; Washington 10.165
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 19-20: Toronto at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.436; Chicago 12.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-175); Under

Game 21-22: Detroit at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.491; Phoenix 12.963
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-115); Under

Game 23-24: Calgary at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.742; San Jose 11.801
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+230); Over

Game 25-26: Dallas at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.306; Los Angeles 12.690
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TEMPLE (-3) over ArmyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We went against the Cadets two weeks ago and cashed a winning ticket when they traveled to Boston College and got walloped, 48-27, as a 12-point underdog. Army has been dismal on the road the last three years, covering just one of its last 12 games away from home. Temple limps into its homecoming weekend game winless at 0-6, but those losses came against the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Houston. First-year head coach Matt Rhule knows this is one of the few winnable games on the schedule, so he’ll have his team fully focused on the task at hand. The Owls are 6-2 straight up and 7-1 ATS against Army in the last eight meetings and last year the Temple offense erupted for 565 yards of offense in a 63-32 rout as a 3-point dog. True freshman QB P.J. Walker made his starting debut last week against Cincinnati and played well enough to get another start here in a much more manageable situation. Lay the short number.

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa State vs. BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Baylor -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I successfully played against Baylor last week. I acknowledged that it was a little "hard on the nerves" to play against the Bears and that I respected them but also added that I felt they were laying too many points against what I expected to be a determined opponent.
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Last week, the Bears were facing a K-State team which had "revenge" from last year on its mind. (The Bears beat the Wildcats when they undefeated the previous season.) They were also playing at a venue, where they'd struggled, historically. *If anyone is interested, I've pasted an excerpt from last week's Baylor/K-State analysis, at the bottom of this play.
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The Bears are back home now though. Back home where they've gone 4-0 SU/ATS and outscored teams by an average score of 70.5 to 16.2. Back home where they're now 15-2 ATS (or 14-2-1 ATS) the last couple of seasons.
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Unlike last week, Baylor is now the team with payback on its mind. The Cyclones defeated the Bears 35-21 at Iowa State last season.
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While they've covered the spread in each of their last three games, the Cyclones are off back-to-back close losses. In fact, all four of their losses have been by eight points or less.
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One could argue that Iowa State is difficult to "blow out" and that this line is awfully high. I was reading a Baylor message board and even Bears' fans were doing exactly that. However, the fact is that the Cyclones haven't faced an opponent like this one.
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Additionally, large numbers of close losses eventually tend to take a toll on a team. Throw in the fact that the Cyclones are now playing their third road game in the past four weeks and I feel that they're ripe to finally get "crushed."
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Note that the Cyclones lost by 23 when they played here in 2011. The Bears had a 391-181 edge on the ground, a 37-17 edge in first downs. While they don't have Robert Griffin III any longer, this year's team is arguably even more explosive. I feel the situation calls for an even bigger rout. Consider laying the large number with BAYLOR.
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Including his winner on K-State over Baylor, Ben Burns was 7-2 with his NCAA football last week, also winning at every other sport. Fully in his groove, this documented football champion is now with his NCAA selections, over the past three Saturdays. Burns was 17-6 from Friday-Monday and he's expecting another banner weekend. Make sure you're on board!
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Here's an excerpt from last week's winning play on K-State.
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"...Playing against Baylor is likely going to be a little hard on the nerves for some. After all, the Bears are putting up ridiculous numbers on offense, even more so than Oregon. Three of the wins were against weak non-conference foes. But, the Bears did it again against West Virgina last week, a 73-42 win. Still, lets keep in mind that this is their first road game of the season. Also, note that West Virginia also lost 38-0 to Maryland, a team which was just beaten 63-0. So, perhaps blowing out the Mountaineers wasn't as impressive as it seems. Either way, I expect the Bears to receive by far their toughest test yet.
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The Wildcats figure to be highly motivated. Not only do they desperately need a conference victory, but they also haven't forgotten last year's blowout loss at Baylor. The Cats were 10-0 at the time and thinking National Title game. The loss at Baylor killed those dreams. Its fair to say that the Cats, 4-0 at home against the Bears, have had this one circled.
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Although its been a disappointing start to the season, K-State has not suffered any losses by greater than 10 points. Last week, they lost by just four at Oklahoma State.
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While this is obviously an improved team, it should be noted that the Bears are just 3-6 ATS (2-7 SU) the past couple of seasons on the road, 0-3 ATS as road favorites.
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Its true that the Cats could be without receivers Lockett and/or Thompson. Obviously, thats not ideal when going up against such a high-powered opponent. Still, agree with K-State's Ryan Mueller, who said this of his team: " … we have a lot of talent on this team. We're a young group that's talented. We're just going to have to step it up during this week's practice … "
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Including the cover at Ok. State last week, the Cats are 15-4-1 ATS their last 20 conference games, going 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 in October. They're 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were off a conference loss and 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were getting points. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range ... "

Lee WilliamsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. NorthwesternFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota +12½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota actually played more competitively then boxscore showed against Michigan last week,but miscues kept Golphers from making game closer.They get a Northwestern team that is banged up and off 2 tough losses to Wisconsin and Ohio.St,so we arent sure how much energy they will bring into this game on Saturday.Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We will grab points here.

Brandon ShivelyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. MemphisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Memphis -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU comes into this game off a bye week after a tough overtime loss to Rutgers in week 5. They lost 55-52 in a tough game where SMU actually scored the last 21 points in regulation to tie the score, but only to lose in overtime. I feel like this is a tough spot for SMU as they figure to be deflated after that tough overtime loss and I do not think this bye week will be beneficial for them.
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SMU relies strictly on their passing game with a June Jones offense but I am not at all sold on QB Garret Gilbert who only has 9 TD passes on the season, and that is after a career best 5 TD performance against Rutgers.
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SMU has won the last two matchups, including a 42-0 matchup in 2011 @ Memphis and the Tiger seniors will be hungry to make amends from that loss. The difference now is Memphis is a more experienced team with a Head Coach that has his team playing inspired with a 'Defense first' approach. Memphis is 4-0 'ITS' their last 4 games, including out gaining UCF by 123 yards and Arkansas State by 250 yards. I like the Memphis offense as they have installed a quality running game and in effect, have been able to control the clock and keep the opposing team off the field.
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Memphis improved their defense by 107 yards from last year, and have the 9th ranked defense last year, actually 75 YPG better than last year. I do like the Memphis defense to lead the way this afternoon. SMU's defense has slipped 71 YPG from last year and this is a game where Memphis can move the ball, score touchdowns, and rely on their defense to protect the lead. SMU is giving up 187 RYPG their last 3 games, so look for the Memphis running game to move the chains this afternoon.
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I like the FG kicker of Memphis as well. Jake Elliot is 10-for-10 on the season with a long of 50 yards. I also like the punter who is averaging 47 yards per punt. Memphis has the better special teams in this matchup in what could very well prove to be the difference in the game.
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In closing, I will refer back to Memphis being 4-0 'ITS' their last 4 games. They have played formidable opponents and I like the fact that they continue to out gain opponents. They have a MUCH improved defense and great defense will cause turnovers and great field position. Look for Memphis to win this game by a touchdown.
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• SMU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games
• Memphis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss
• Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
• Memphis is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke vs. VirginiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Virginia -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke is 4-2 overall but has played just one road game, which was a 28-14 win at Memphis. Duke has received solid quarterback play from Anthony Boone. He did miss a few games due to an injury but had four touchdown passes in last week's 35-7 win over Navy. Duke did lose at home to Georgia Tech by 24 and was outscored 58-55 by Pittsburgh as Panther QB Tom Savage had six touchdown passes. Last year, David Cutcliffe's team ended the year 1-6 in the last seven games. They did defeat their rival UNC Tar Heels by 3 points but that was their only victory in the second half of the season. Lack of depth and playing better teams did contribute to that losing streak.
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Virginia is 2-4 overall and 2-2 at home. They lost at Maryland last week by one point. QB David Watford played well as he was 27-44 for 261 yards and a touchdown. Coach Mike London was happy to see his quarterback play well leading up to this home game. In this series the home team has gone 6-1 in the last seven. Parker did have 112 rushing yards for the Cavaliers last week with one touchdown and Shepherd added 81 yards. Virginia had 29 first downs while the Terps had just 19.
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Duke did win last year at home versus Virginia but I expect to see the Cavaliers motivated at home playing a team of their caliber. Duke's defense is below average and the Blue Devils struggle to run the ball. I do expect a close game but think Virginia wins and covers the small number, which is -1.5. Take Virginia -1.5 for one unit on Saturday.

Doug UpstoneFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs. MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Memphis -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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PLAY ON teams like Memphis who average 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry running the ball, against a poor rushing team (SMU) who averages 3 to 3.5 yards per carry, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards per attempt in their last game. In the past 10 years, this system is a remarkable 23-3 ATS, 88.5 percent.

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Auburn +13.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Huge revenge game here for the Tigers who were simply embarrassed last year losing 63-21 while hosting Johnny Football and company. The 671 total yards allowed in that game was the most ever permitted in the history of Auburn football. While the Tigers finished the year 3-9 this seasons edition is a much stronger one. Auburn is only permitting 5.8 yards per play which is slightly higher than the FBS average. But this team has faced some pretty good offenses in Washington State, Arkansas State, LSU and Mississippi. Coming off an FCS opponent in Western Carolina you can guess that Gus Malzahn and company worked a bit defending this team in practice last week. With lowly Florida Atlantic on deck you know the team has had this game circled.
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Texas A&M will put up a lot of points in this game, that much is expected. But this defense has many cracks, particularly in the run game in which Auburn can take advantage. The Aggies have yet to cover a game by more than two points all season, as you are always paying a tariff when backing this high scoring unit. With a schedule that provides clear sailing until a trip to LSU on November 23rd, we can easily see this team overlooking an angry foe that they dominated last season. That has been the character of this team with Manziel behind center and this defense simply cannot be trusted.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA vs. StanfordFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinal defense has not been as dominant this season as it was a year ago, and that was obvious this Saturday when Stanford lost on the road in Utah by a score of 27-21.
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These teams have met in each of the last three seasons, and all three of those games saw the total go over the number. Last week's loss to the Utes failed to go over the number, but each of the Cardinal's previous four games saw the points go over the total. That includes both home games against ranked opponents (ASU & WASH).
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The Bruins have seen the under cash a winning ticket in three of their five games, but this total is at least 10 points lower than it was in any of those contests. One of those was a 34-27 victory in Utah, where the Cardinal lost last week.
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Stanford narrowly escaped with a 31-28 victory at home over Washington two weeks ago, and they face a tougher task this Saturday versus a Bruin's offense that is averaging over 45 points per game.
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The Cardinal have seen the total go over in five of their last six games versus Pac-12 opponents, and in nine of 11 when coming off a loss.
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I expect to see these two heavyweights exchange blows, and a close game with both teams scoring their share should push the total over.
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Take OVER 54.

Teddy Covers

UCLA vs. Stanford
Pick: UCLA

Stanford and UCLA met twice last year, less than a week apart. The first meeting was the regular season finale for both squads, but the Bruins had clinched a trip to the PAC-12 title game by beating USC the previous week, while Stanford needed the win to clinch the PAC-12 North Division.

And there was a dramatic difference in the way the two teams approached the game as a result. The Cardinal won 35-17 in a fairly one sided affair.

But Stanford head coach David Shaw knew that the Cardinal didn’t get UCLA’s best shot. Here was his quote about the rematch for the PAC-12 title and a BCS Bowl game the following week: “I expect them to give us everything. I expect this to be a very tough, physical game. It's going to be 10 times harder than this game was. We're going to get their best shot.”

Shaw was right. In the game that mattered for BOTH teams, UCLA outgained the Cardinal by more than 130 yards and led by a TD heading into the fourth quarter. But Stanford rallied back to take a three point lead, and UCLA missed the potential game tying field goal. Stanford got the 27-24 win, but UCLA backers got the money as nine point underdogs right here in Palo Alto.

UCLA is better this year than they were last year. Dual threat QB Brett Hundley is no inexperienced freshman like he was in 2012, and his early season play has been nothing short of stellar: 68% completions, 12 TD’s, 9.2 yards per pass attempt. He’s made big plays on the highway, leading the Bruins to victory on the road at Nebraska and Utah, teams that are a combined 9-1 in all other games (Utah lost by a field goal in OT to Oregon State).

Bruins junior RB Jordon James is averaging 6.3 yards per rush, although his ankle injury doesn’t look good as of this writing. Still, running back depth is not an issue for this team. Nine different receivers have caught at least one touchdown pass. Their defense, while still fairly young, is loaded with NFL caliber talent in the trenches, allowing them to win the rushing battle in every game except last week’s relatively sluggish ‘look-ahead’ against lowly Cal.

The technical trends point towards the Bruins, in addition to their ‘revenge’ motif after Stanford denied them a trip to the Rose Bowl last year. UCLA is 5-1 ATS as an underdog in the Jim Mora era, the lone loss coming in that aforementioned ‘meaningless’ regular season finale for the Bruins last year. That includes outright wins as a dog against Nebraska (twice), USC, Arizona State and their cover at Stanford.

Meanwhile, the Cardinal just aren’t built to win games by big margins; lacking the requisite offensive explosiveness – hence their 1-5 ATS mark in their last six tries as home chalk in conference. Expect a tight game! Take UCLA.

PlayersbetFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alabama vs ArkansasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Alabama -27.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With a point spread this high it clearly tells us one thing…complete mismatch! Yes that is what it is. Question now comes into play with Alabama really cover a 4 touchdown spread….you beat ya they will! We have run this through our system multiple times and we have Alabama winning this game by 35 points. Arkansas will be lucky if they can score in this game to be completely honest with you. Arkansas comes into this match up slowly sliding down hill, losers of their last 4, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Alabama has only allowed 1 TD over their last 4 games allow just 11 ppg while the Hogs; laboring offense has only scored 8.5 ppg in their last 2. Alabama is coming off a 41 point win vs Kentucky last week and we look for a repeat performance against the Hog’s. Bonus Stat: Play On – Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (ALABAMA) averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 straight games. (28-4 over the last 10 seasons (87.5%, +23.6 units)

Big Al McMordie

Our complimentary selection is:

Army +2.5 over Temple.

Is this capper any good? Please look at the thread in The Spread titled: Hottest Handicappers. He is HOT !!!
Here is the thread: http://www.thespread.com/forum?task=topic&id=84419#p308373

Alex Smart

North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: North Texas -6½

Skip Holtz the skipper of LATech continues to make bad decisions both on and off the field, which dates back to his last days at USF. He has the type of team that plays to survive and not win, and today Im betting he gets out coached and out played by a superior North Texas Mean Green side.

Freddy Wills

Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Indiana +10

Indiana has lost the last two meeting by 1 possession and this is arguably their best offense. Michigan is off a devastating loss at Penn State, a team Indiana handled easily by 3 TD's at home. Michigan has been inconsistent all year and has to be looking ahead to their in state rival Michigan St who they face next. This team has seen a lapse in concentration against Akron and Connecticut and this is a great sandwhich game following an emotional loss with a huge game on deck. Michigan's defense has not faced a balanced offense all year and they are about to. As great as Indiana's passing offense has been their rushing offense combo of Coleman and Houston have produced over 6 yards per carry a piece and they have 15 rushing TD's as a team. They've already allowed 3 QB's to throw over 300 yards and up next is Nate Sudfeld who has a 148 QB rating and is averaging over 300 yards passing per game.