Jack Jones
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +7
Vanderbilt is hungry for its first taste of victory in SEC play. It comes in on two weeks’ rest having last played on October 5, so it will certainly be fresh and ready to go in this one. The Commodores handled themselves very well in their first two SEC contests, losing 35-39 to Ole Miss in the closing seconds and rallying for a 25-35 loss at South Carolina. Sure, they were blown out by Missouri 28-51, but they still put up 468 total yards in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.
The Commodores go up against a Georgia team that is without almost all of its top skill players, which is the biggest reason why the Bulldogs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three games. They needed overtime to beat Tennessee on October 5, and fell 26-41 at home to Missouri last weekend.
The Bulldogs are without their top receiver from last season in Malcolm Mitchell, as well as two of their top three receivers this year in Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley. All three guys are lost for the season. As is second-string running back Keith Marshall. Also, starting running back Todd Gurley remains questionable with an ankle injury after sitting out last week’s loss to Missouri.
The last time these teams met in Nashville, Vanderbilt played a great game but lost by a final of 28-33 as a 13.5-point underdog. The Commodores were blown out by the Bulldogs last season by a final of 3-48 on the road as everything that could go wrong for them, did. They certainly want revenge from that defeat heading into this one.
This isn't the same Georgia team that nearly played in the BCS Championship last year, losing to Alabama by the narrowest of margins in the SEC Title game. Realizing that their chances of winning a BCS Championship are all but out the window with two losses already, the Bulldogs may not even show up Saturday. They could easily suffer a hangover from their loss to Missouri last week.
I like what I’ve seen from the offense this season. The Commodores are averaging 33.7 points and 425.0 yards per game to rank 55th in total offense. There are certainly some holes in this Georgia defense, which is allowing 33.7 points per game this season. Austyn Carta-Samuels is completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,561 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, while also rushing for 86 yards and five scores. Jordan Matthews has 47 receptions for 709 yards and five touchdowns.
Vanderbilt is 11-3 against the spread in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Mark Richt is 2-10 against the number off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival as the coach of Georgia. The Commodores are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 13-6 against the number in its last 19 home games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.
Steve Janus
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia +5½
There’s no question the Mountaineers have suffered a couple of ugly losses. On top of that 43-73 beating by Baylor they were also shutout 0-37 at the hands of Maryland. On the flip side of this, West Virginia lost by just 8-points on the road to Oklahoma and pulled off that huge upset at home against Oklahoma State. This team is clearly capable of winning this game and you have to wonder if oddsmakers haven’t set this line so low to entice bettors to jump on the ranked Red Raiders.
One thing you can’t overlook is that it’s very difficult for a lot of these Big 12 teams to play at Mountaineer Field. It’s a lengthy distance for a lot these teams to travel. Not only is their concern with the distance between Lubbock and Morgantown, but Texas Tech is in a letdown spot with a huge road game at Oklahoma on deck next week. It’s going to be very easy for the Red Raiders to not take this game seriously after watching the way the Mountaineers lost to Baylor and after last year’s 35-point win at home over West Virginia.
Another factor favoring the Mountaineers in this matchup is that they are coming into this game off a bye. Head coach Dana Holgorsen has had two full weeks to try and get his offense on track. This could be the breakout game everyone has been waiting for from junior quarterback Cody Trickett, who has shown flashes since being inserted in the starting lineup the last two games. Texas Tech ranks just 63rd in the country against the pass, giving up 231.7 ypg and that’s important to note considering the Red Raiders have faced a lot of mediocre offenses in the early portion of their schedule.
One of the hidden stats in this matchup is turnovers. West Virginia has 15 takeaways in six games, while Texas Tech has turned it over at least three times in four of their six games in 2013, including three last week against Iowa State. This sets up a favorable system for the Mountaineers. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who have forced 3 or more turnovers in two consecutive games against an opponent who had a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest are 26-4 (86.7%) ATS since 1992.
Adding to this play, is the fact that Texas Tech could once again be playing without starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who didn’t play against the Cyclones and is listed as questionable for Saturday.
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North Texas vs. Louisiana TechFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Louisiana Tech +7.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas has had a decent season in C USA thus far. They come into this game playing better on 3rd down and owing a nice edge in the passing game. But LT is a young team that had only 6 starters back and may be starting to find its way. They are coming off a bye and have a sizable edge in the running game. Neither teams pass D has been overly impressive thus far, but the ability for improvement lies on the LT side in my opinion. I like LT's kicking game and feel the NT Dl can be pushed around and have difficulty generating pressure on the QB. The Meen Green are out of their role as road favorites and covering a TD is a tall task. Take the home dog with LT.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Saturday's college football card is on Texas State minus a big number, but certainly loaded with value, against visiting Georgia State.
Interesting game we have here, as both teams are supposed to be experiencing transitional seasons, and that is probably the case given the Bobcats are 3-3 and Georgia State is 0-6 in their inaugural year as FBS teams.
But wait, a team in transition that is 3-3 on the year is laying 17 points. Makes you wonder, right?
Georgia State is 1-17 in the last two years, and now is playing on the road against a team ripe for its first Sun Belt Conference win. The 'Cats already have three non-conference wins - two of them impressive, for a transitional team - as they've knocked off Southern Mississippi and Wyoming.
Take a look at Robert Lowe, who has carried the offensive load for Texas State and comes into this game as the team's leading rusher with 442 yards, which ranks second in the conference.
Georgia State has struggled terribly with a suitcase in hand this season, as it's averaging 5.0 points per game, while allowin a whopping 43.0 ppg. in return.
Trust me, I'm just fine with laying the points with the home team in transition.
2♦ TEXAS STATE
Brad Wilton
Your free play winner for Saturday is to look for the Ohio University Bobcats to bounce-back from their shocking 23-26 loss (as the -19 1/2 point favorite!) to Central Michigan with a romp on the road against lowly Eastern Michigan.
Eastern Michigan just allowed a whopping 50 points in their loss last weekend to Army, as the Eagles bring a 5 game losing streak into Ypsilanti this Saturday afternoon.
EMU is just 1-5 versus the spread this season, and are on an overall 2-9 spread slide dating back to last season. Included is a 45-14 blowout loss at Ohio in a game the Bobcats ran for over 300 yards.
Ohio U is on a 5-1-1 spread run in this series, so chances the Bobcats atone for last week's hiccup seem pretty strong.
Eastern Michigan has allowed 42 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games.
I can smell the blowout in this MAC meeting.
3♦ OHIO
Brett Atkins
My free winner for Saturday is on third-ranked Clemson, in its huge ACC showdown in Death Valley against the Florida State Seminoles. I was impressed by how the Tigers fought back from a fourth-quarter deficit last week to score 14 unanswered points to nab the win.
Now the Tigers are in what is being billed as the biggest game in conference history, and I like them getting points at home. I know Florida State is in after a bye week, but that might not be the better than an upset scare like the Tigers had last week. It's not rust, but it's complacency that could unravel the Seminoles. Especially in what a game being hyped as a quarterback duel between Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd.
And I'm sorry, though the 'Noles are averaging about 10 points more than Clemson, I'm a big fan and big believer in Boyd, who has a 27-6 record as a starter at Clemson. He is eighth in the nation in passing efficiency with a 172 figure. He is also ninth in the nation in touchdown passes with 15 and 12th in total offense per game at 328.3.
Clemson ranks 10th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 16.2 points per game overall and a mere 15.5 per game in four ACC contests, while it also ranks fourth in turnover margin.
I also like the revenge factor in this game, as the Tigers led 27-13 in Tallahassee last season in what was a top-10 showdown, when the Seminoles rallied for a 49-37 victory. Since Florida State has struggled in Death Valley, where it hasn't won since 2001, I have to believe Clemson will play with a lot of confidence.
Clemson has covered 10 of its last 13 in conference play while the home team has covered 12 of the last 15 meetings. Take the home pup, and if you're being offered a flat-3 points, I want you to buy the half point up.
2♦ CLEMSON
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Georgia St. / Texas St. Under 50FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Very likely a Yawner on this one and a number here of 44.7 is what I have. Offensive output not significant for either team but Texas State with a fairly solid D team. They should have little difficulty stopping Georgia State who has been outgained in every affair this year save for the opening with Samford and just barely there. The visitors coming off games with 2 high octane offenses in Alabama and Troy and that has skewed their D numbers up quite a bit. It's time to sell high. There are other reasons to play this one that are significant but those are not something that I readily share. We can expect the visitors to drain the clock with their average of 36.3 rushing attempts per contest. This is IMO a high percentage play and we even have a decent chance that field conditions will not be up to par.
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Louisiana Tech +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We've obviously got the much better of this number, but since Ryan Higgins, the Freshman LaTech quarterback, took over for Scotty Young, LaTech's stock has been on the rise. That Tulane loss was the kids' first game, and he as well as the offense (duh) have improved every week since. They played at Kansas and barely lost, and while I do know how good Kansas is not, they are bigger and faster and a Big 12 team. North Texas has not won a road game, so why should be be laying points with them, since they TOO lost at Tulane. We shouldn't. The Mean Green will give LaTech every chance to win this game outright. LaTech has lost five straight ATS at home, something that not long ago was unthinkable. THAT is quite likely, combined with the perception that UNT is better than they are (I do like McCarney but they're still a year or two away) is why this line went up so fast. We'll take it and run.
Scott Delaney
My free play in college football for Saturday is on the Oregon Ducks minus all those points against the Washington State Cougars.
Is it risky laying this many points in a conference rivalry? Usually, yes.
But with the Oregon Ducks, there may not be enough points. And in this game, there really might not be enough to lay.
The Ducks have won the last six meetings against Wazzou, averaging 50.8 points per game during that span, and have never scored less than 43. Oregon comes into this one ranked second nationally in scoring offense (56.8) and total offense (630.5), while ranking third in rushing (324.0).
But here's the deal, on the other side of the ball, the Ducks rank sixth in the nation in scoring defense (13.8), fifth in passing efficiency defense (94.31) and 18th in total defense (338.7). Oregon leads the Pac 12 in all of those categories.
Talk about balance, this is a team at home and that knows how to strike quick. Of Oregon’s 45 touchdown drives this season, 33 (73.3 percent) of them have lasted less than two minutes.
The second-ranked Ducks come into this conference showdown on ATS win streaks of 6-1 in Eugene, 10-1 against winning teams and 22-8 overall. The home team has covered 6 of 8 in this series. Lay the points, as Oregon continues to make a statement.
3* OREGON
John Ryan
UNLV at Fresno St.
Play: Fresno St.
The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 26 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-12 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2002. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (FRESNO ST) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. I had outlined this system in a previous 5* writeup and they won ATS. This system is 3-2 ATS for the season and 12-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Remember that all of my releases are graded by my neural network (back propagation) simulator and then supported, reinforced, and confirmed by the matchup analyses, systems, metrics, and just hard data. The systems are powerful tools in their own right, but the results are always significantly better when they support the SIM projections. Here is a second system that ahs gone 66-29 ATS for 70% winners since 2002. It has posted a 3-2 ATS mark this season and 19-8 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (FRESNO ST) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins and is undefeated on the season. Fresno enters this game off a strong performance, especially in the turnover department. They are a resounding 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. Take Fresno State.
Larry Ness
Florida St at Clemson
Prediction: Clemson
No. 3 Clemson hosts No. 5 Florida St Saturday night, the ACC’s first top-five showdown in eight years. Florida State owns an 18-8 series advantage against Clemson and won last year's game 49-37 in Tallahassee. However, the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series, with Clemson winning FIVE in a row here in Death Valley against FSU (Seminoles last won at Clemson back in 2001). Jimbo Fisher's Seminoles should be well rested as they were idle last week, after routing Maryland 63-0 on Oct 5. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney's Tigers looked sluggish last weekend at home against Boston College, needing to rally down the stretch to post a 24-14 victory.
That sets the stage for Saturday night’s clash. FSU is averaging 53.6 PG on 549.0 YPG, led by redshirt freshman QB Jameis Winston. Winston is completing a 73.2 percent of his passes, for 1,441 yards, with 17 TDs against just two interceptions. The running game averages 228.2 YPG on 6.0 YPC. FSU's offensive production is quite impressive but note that its “D” is allowing only 12.0 ppg (3rd nationally) on 276.8 YPG (7th). Clemson is averaging 40.8 PPG on 514.5 YPG, while showing excellent balance as well (172.5 YPG on the ground / 342.0 YPG through the air).
Winston’s opposite number is Clemson QB Tahj Boyd. Boyd has completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,783 yards with 15 TDs and just two INTs. He has also added five TDs on the ground, keeping defenses honest with his ability to improvise. Clemson is no slouch defensively either, ranking 10th in scoring defense (16.2 PPG), while leading the nation in sacks (24).
Clemson was ahead 27-13 in Tallahassee last season but then collapsed, before getting a late TD to the cover the huge pointspread. As a three-point home dog, Clemson will likely have to win this game outright to cover in this one but why can’t the Tigers do just that? As I’ve already noted, they’ve won the last five times the Seminoles have invaded Death Valley. Both teams feature skilled passers and Heisman Trophy contenders in Boyd and Winston but I’ll stick with the senior over the freshman and with the history of the series which has seen the home team win 10 of the last 11 meetings. Take the home dog.
Matt Fargo
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois +14½
This is where we expected this line to go after opening in the 10 range so waiting this one out paid off as it continues to climb. Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win last week at home against Northwestern and while we on that side, it was more of a play against the Wildcats after leaving everything on the field the previous week against Ohio St. now the Badgers hit the road where they are winless on the season, losing at Arizona St. and at Ohio St. Granted those team are superior to Illinois however that is being reflected in the number as there is over a 21-point different in the spread from those games to here. Wisconsin is a solid team no doubt but I do not think it deserves that much credit in a line swing that big. Illinois is coming off a loss at Nebraska two weeks ago so it has had an extra week to rest and prepare for Wisconsin which is never a bad thing. The Illini had won three of its previous four games including an impressive victory against Cincinnati while falling to Washington on a neutral field by just 10 points. This would be a huge win for Illinois as it looks to get back into the national scene after some horrific years under Ron Turner and Ron Zook. This is just the 23rd home night game in the history of the program and the first against a Big Ten team since 2008 which makes this a pretty big affair. These teams played just over a year ago in Wisconsin and while the Badgers won by 17 points, they were favored by the same amount there as they are now which is saying that these teams are eight points further apart now and that is hardly the case. Illinois was just 2-10 a year ago so this team is well above last year's edition. While the Illini are coming off a poor effort against Nebraska on offense, this is a strong unit still. The revamped Illinois offense, directed by new offensive coordinator Bill Cubit, has jumped at least 75 spots in the national rankings from last year to this year in first downs, long scrimmage plays, scoring offense, turnovers lost, total offense, passing efficiency and passing offense, with the biggest turnaround a whopping 99-place improvement in first downs. The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 20 points and they have failed to cover in four of the last five meetings in Champaign. Illinois falls into an outstanding contrarian rushing situation as we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against teams that are allowing between 190 and 230 rushing ypg. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1992.
Dave Price
Louisiana Tech +4
North Texas hasn't been the same team on the road. The Mean Green are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in the last seven road games. They put a hurt on Middle Tennessee State last week, but they are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win and 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following an ATS win. It's also worth noting that North Texas is 0-6 ATS following a win over a conference rival under coach McCarney. Louisiana Tech picked up a confidence-boosting win at UTEP its last time out, and it has had an extra week to prepare for this one. The Bulldogs are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Until McCarney's troops show they can get the job done on the highway, I'll look to fade them away from home, especially when they're laying points.
Bill Biles
Northern Illinois -15
Huskies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Huskies are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
They have to keep pace with Ball State in the conference so look for them to rebound after a tough game last week.
Bruce Marshall
Colorado State at Wyoming
Pick: Colorado State
Those unfamiliar with Rocky Mountain regional dynamics might be surprised at the intensity of this border war. And CSU hellbent to snap current 4-game losing streak to most-hated rival. Not sure Ram QB Garrett Grayson can fire more scoring shots than Wyo counterpart Brett Smith. But lack of playmakers on Cowboys' 90th ranked "D" making it harder for Wyo (no covers last 2 games) to extend margins.