Carlos Salazar
California vs. Oregon State
Play Oregon State -10
Carlos has found another bad line for Saturday as he's showing Oregon St should be listed as at least a 20 point favorite. The Beavers are scoring over 43 points per game while California is giving up over 43 points per game. Carlos is looking for Oregon St. to score early and often in this one and cover the 10 points with ease.
River City Sports
Southern Miss at East Carolina
Play: East Carolina -22.5
A rough year looks to possibly get worse Saturday as So Miss visits East Carolina, fresh off a loss last week to Tulane in 3OT. So Miss is truly one of the worst offensive teams in the country (ranked 119) and only average 303 yds per game. East Carolina, who is at home for the first time in a month, has been stingy defensively until last week and we think they will make it very difficult for So Miss to score. ECU is scoring 34 pts per game and So Miss is only scoring 12 on their own. We are going against some trends here as the visitor has won the last 3 games SU and in the last 8 contests, they are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. With all of that said, this is a terrible So Miss team that will be completely destroyed by an angry Pirate team coming home.
Marc Lawrence
Indiana vs. Michigan
Pick: Indiana
Leading by 10 points in the 4th quarter, Brady Hoke’s bunch saw the Nittany Lions come back to tie the game before UM kicker Brendan Gibbons missed a 52-yard field goal to force overtime. Gibbons then missed two more kicks in the extra session and Bill Belton dashed into the end zone to give PSU a 43-40 four-overtime win over the Maize-and-Blue, knocking Michigan from the ranks of the unbeaten. Thanks to that result, the Wolves qualify as an ‘OUT OF GAS’ fade from Marc’s Best of the Black Book, involving home favorites off an overtime loss. Even worse, this is also a classic ‘Bubble Burst’ role for UM who suffered its initial loss of the season after opening 5-0. Meanwhile, Indiana’s loss at Michigan State came as no surprise since the Hoosiers were playing their FIRST road game of the year after completing a season-opening 5-game home stand. Lost in the midst of the 42-28 defeat: the 347 yards IU put on the Spartans was the highest yardage total yielded by MSU this season. This will be Indiana HC Kevin Wilson’s first crack at Michigan in his 2+ seasons at Bloomington (predecessor Bill Lynch lost but covered both meetings with UM) and his 19 returning starters are anxious for a piece of the Wolverines here. The Hoosiers are still averaging over 41 PPG and their quick-strike passing game should have Michigan’s DBs running in circles all afternoon. Take the points as the hangover hosts look to have their hands full in the Big House once again today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Indiana.
John Ryan
Arkansas at Alabama
Play: Arkansas
The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 28 points. On the surface, the irrational exuberance demonstrated by public betting on Alabama is quite supportive for this graded play. More than 68% of all bets are being made on Alabama. Normally, I like seeing 73%+, but given the hefty number, it is still valid to note. For a wide array of reason, the Tide is just 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games when playing poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992. Arkansas is a solid 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992. Arkansas can run the ball though and I believe they will be far more successful than most believe possible. SIM shows that they will gain150 to 200 rushing yards. In past games, Alabama is just 7-23 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 to 200 rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-9 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (ARKANSAS) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry and after gaining 6 or more rushing yards/attempt last game. Take Arkansas.
Kyle Hunter
Oregon State vs. California
Play: Oregon State -10½
The Oregon State Beavers have quarterback Sean Mannion and receiver Brandin Cooks absolutely lighting up every defense in sight right now. Cal's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Bears don't have a very good home field advantage, and Oregon State has already gone on the road and beaten decent teams at Utah and Washington State (two much tougher places to play). Cal's Jared Goff is prone to turnovers and Mannion and the Beavers offense should cash in on those opportunities. Look for Oregon State to win this one comfortably.
Tony Karpinski
UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -4½
Saturday's College Football FREE WINNER is Stanford over UCLA, giving the points. UCLA has been led by a very good QB in Brett Hundley, who can hit anyone in stride, with his big arm. They keep the ball moving and will be pushing it with their WR corps to do so. Stanford is having some injury troubles on their front line, which could help out the running game for UCLA. Stanford will move the ball well in the air vs the suspicious pass defense of UCLA. Stanford has proven to be a consistent scoring team regardless of where they play, so pts will come frequently in this game for them, there is no question about that. Stanford can lock down the running game of opponents, so UCLA will have to make sure they get good push from their front for Jordon James to get running room. Stanford hasn't lost back-to-back games since Oct. 2009, the odds of it happening are clearly hard, they are a top notch program who needs to be watched warily. UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Stanford. I project the Cardinal wins by 14 on Saturday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
USC vs. Notre Dame
Play: USC +3
USC emerged with a solid win last week after replacing Lane Kiffin.. Now they benefit form a solid system that plays against Notre Dame here tonight as we want to play against home teams that are dogs or favorites lf less than 4 that are off 1 exact road dog win at +6 or higher, if they won by 3 or more points and their opponent is .600 or less. These home teams have failed to cover 24 of 33 times. Notre Dame is 2-7 ats as a home favorite of 10 or less and 1-5 ats after scoring more than 34 points. They have failed to cover 3 of 4 the last 4 with rest. USC is 4-1 ats on the road with revenge, which they have for last seasons loss as they played without Qb Barkley. The Trojans are 5-1 with 8 days rest and 9-2 off a conference win. Perhaps the most interesting indicator though is their 15-0 straight up road record in games where the total is 49.5 to 52. Look for USC to get the cash tonight.
Chip Chirimbes
UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: UCLA +4½
At first glance I 'wanted' Stanford, after all, 'we' had against them last week with our Megabucks Winner Utah so to come back with them feels natural. Well, upon further review and I hope not to regret this I have come to the other side. The Cardinal defeated the Bruins not once but twice last year (PAC-12 Championship) and are coming off their FBS Bowl bubble has burst. Now, they might be down off of that but with exams this week the can get caught here. UCLA has moved on under Mora and I don't want against him here.
Jeff Alexander
Wake Forest +6
Maryland managed to pull off a 27-26 victory over Virginia despite giving up 505 yards. The Maryland defense has given up an average of 559.5 yards the last two weeks, and that's a major concern. Consider that the Terrapins are 0-7 ATS the last three seasons after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Wake will be the fresher, healthier and more prepared side following a bye. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Additionally, home field has been huge in this series. The home side is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with a 19.5-point average margin of victory. Take Wake.
Joseph D'Amico
Florida State vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson +3½
FSU has yet to be a single-digit favorite this season, facing teams like Nevada, Bethune-Cookman and Boston College (all as a minimum of a 3+ TD fav). At 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), the Seminoles are deserving of their #5 ranking. Jameis Winston, however, is still a freshman QB. Despite his impressive numbers, he still hasn't faced a real defensive unit, especially that of the speed that the Tigers possess. The 4th-ranked Clemson squad opened up their season with an outright victory over Georgia and took down a respectable NC State team. Their defense has not allowed more than 14 points in their L5 contests, yielding just 16.2 PPG on the year. Dual-threat, Tajh Boyd has 1783 YP, a 15/2 TD/INT ratio, 187 YR, and 5 TDs on the ground. The QB is the difference in this matchup. His receiving corps has 11 players each with at least 1 TD reception. Clemson has covered the L4 in the series. The Home Team is 12-3 ATS the L15 meetings. The Seminoles are 0-8 ATS their L8 games played at the Tigers and 1-7 ATS their L8 road games. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS their L10 games played in October and 11-5 ATS their L16 games played overall. Take Clemson.
Jim Feist
Florida State vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson +3
Florida State hasn’t won in Death Valley since 2001. The Seminoles are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. This is a big test for the Seminoles defense against an incredible Clemson offense, one that averages 41 points, 341 yards passing (11th in the nation), 173 yards rushing led by senior QB Taj Boyd (14 TDs, 2 INTs). The Tigers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 conference games. When these teams meet the home team is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings and the Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Clemson. Play Clemson!
SPORTS WAGERS
NOTRE DAME -2½ over USC
We’ll have more college plays on Saturday morning but we’re posting this one early because we’re suggesting you get on it early before the number goes up. Everything about this game points to the Irish. The Irish have a coach with more than 200 wins who is coveted by the NFL. The Trojans have an interim coach with an 11-25 career record. The Irish have an elite staff with one coordinator a reigning Broyles Award winner and the other a former head coach with a 74-7 career record. The Trojans have a short-handed, recruiting-oriented, lame-duck staff with one coordinator a new play-caller and the other in his first year with the program. Brian Kelly's staff has spent its four years at Notre Dame building a deep roster that produced a BCS title game appearance and its best run in more than a decade. Lane Kiffin's staff has spent its four years at USC, with the help of sanctions, crafting a severely depleted roster and leading the school to its worst run in more than a decade.
This week, Notre Dame is coming off an open date, after which Kelly is 11-3, while USC is coming off an emotionally draining victory and now have to travel across the country to play in a crazy, hostile environment. Nothing about these programs is remotely comparable right now, and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Trojans have no shot to win this one.
Harry Bondi
INDIANA (+9) over Michigan
Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the country and finds itself in a major letdown situation here. Last week, the Wolverines dropped a heartbreaking 43-40 four-overtime decision to Penn State. Next week, they play rival Michigan State. There is simply no way they will be able to put forth a focused effort here today and that will spell trouble against a much-improved Indiana team. The Hoosiers' quick-strike offense is averaging 41.7 points per game and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to the Big House. Look for Indiana to hang around here until the very end and have a chance to win the game outright. Take the generous points.
Tom Stryker
Akron vs. Miami
Play: Akron -7
Akron probably owns the most impressive 1-6 SU record in college football. The Zips did get pummeled by Central Florida in their season opener. However, losses to Michigan (by four) Louisiana Lafayette (by five) and Northern Illinois (by seven) show that the UA program is getting close.
Miami Ohio, on the other hand, will easily replace Akron as the worst team in the MAC. The RedHawks own a nasty 0-6 SU mark (0-2 SU in the MAC) and they are nowhere near as strong as the first seven schools the Zips have faced this season. Offensively, Miami is ranked 12th in the conference averaging a shocking 9.0 points per game and dead last in total offense posting an average of 213.7 yards per game.
The RedHawks defensive unit isn't much better. Miami allows an average of 32.5 points per game (ranked 9th in the MAC) and an average of 484.3 yards per game (ranked last in the MAC). Even with a 1-6 SU record, the Zips find themselves ranked fourth in the conference in passing (228.1 ypg) and they should have no trouble throwing all over a RedHawks secondary that allows an average of 263.6 yards per game (ranked 12th in the MAC).
Not counting FCS member James Madison, Akron's first six FBS opponents this year all played in a bowl game last season. To say this is a step down in class for head coach Terry Bowden's kids would be an understatement. UA's 30-game road losing streak comes to an end today. Take Akron.
SPORTS WAGERS
Umass +19½ over BUFFALO
The Bulls have reeled off four in a row and have scored a lot of points over that span but those four wins have come against garbage competition in Stony Brook, UConn, Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan. It took Buffalo 5 OT sessions to defeat Stony Brook and the other three teams have one win combined in 18 games. Now the Bulls are being asked to spot more points than they’ve ever spotted in their football history and they have not shown enough to warrant it.
These two met last season when the Minutemen were not even an FBNS member yet. UMass led that contest 13-0 at the half before Buffalo rallied for a 10-point victory. This year the Minutemen are better and they’re also coming off their first ever FBS win. UMass has also played a tough schedule this season in Bowling Green, Vandy, K-State and Wisconsin so its weak offensive numbers are skewed the wrong way. The Minutemen are not going to light it up here but they will play their usual sound defense, methodically use the clock and likely stay well within this range the entire contest.
Connecticut +15½ over CINCINNATI
This line is out of whack. This is not the same Bearcats squad as last year’s team that went 10-3. Cincinnati has a weak passing game, a defensive line that returned just one starter (its worst starter, no less) and they’ve also played one of the easiest schedules of all the well-known’s. The Bearcats have not come close to demonstrating that they are worthy of a 15½ point spot to anyone.
The Huskies are being offered this many points because of their 0-5 record which includes a 15-point loss to Towson, a 12-point loss to Maryland and a 19-point loss to Buffalo. However, let us point out that UConn’s loss to Buffalo came the week after they nearly upset #15 Michigan, losing 24-21. The Huskies also played South Florida tough, eventually losing by just three points. The Huskies get some key healthy bodies back this week and no way are they TD’s + worse than these overrated imposters from Cincinnati. Huge overlay.
MISSOURI +133 over Florida
The Gators are favored here because Missouri lost its starting QB last week. With James Franklin out three to five weeks with a separated right shoulder, Marty Mauk is now the guy, and the 14th-ranked Tigers, who were so hot, have to turn to the youngster to get through the meat of the SEC schedule. We’re not concerned in the least and it actually works to our benefit because with Franklin, Mizzou would have been favored by at least three and probably four. The Gators have been pure fade material the entire season and they still are because they are not that good and against quality teams they are definitely not very good. Florida’s four wins have come over Toledo, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. They’ve played two quality teams in Miami and LSU and lost them both. The Gators are also coming off a grueling and physical contest at LSU last week and will travel again here. The Gators possess a very sound defense that played well against LSU’s grinding and physical style but it won’t play the same against the Tigers creative and explosive offense.
Missouri is 6-0, it is ranked eight positions higher than the Gators, it has scored 38 points or more in every game and it is getting points at home against a less quality club than some of the clubs it has already defeated. The Tigers defeated Vanderbilt by 23 points and Georgia by 15. Marty Mauk isn’t James Franklin but he doesn’t have to be. The kid has shown promise in his limited opportunities and he has a ton of weaponry around him. Mauk ran a similar offense in high school as offensive coordinator Josh Henson runs now. He can extend plays with his fight and he’s faster than Franklin. WR Marcus Lucas also said he's made some big throws from the pocket in practice. When a big name QB goes down, the team often rallies around the replacement and this Missouri outfit is about to show the Gators than this is not a one-man show. Keep the points, Mizzou outright.
NOTRE DAME -3 over Southern Cal
Everything about this game points to the Irish. The Irish have a coach with more than 200 wins who is coveted by the NFL. The Trojans have an interim coach with an 11-25 career record. The Irish have an elite staff with one coordinator a reigning Broyles Award winner and the other a former head coach with a 74-7 career record. The Trojans have a short-handed, recruiting-oriented, lame-duck staff with one coordinator a new play-caller and the other in his first year with the program. Brian Kelly's staff has spent its four years at Notre Dame building a deep roster that produced a BCS title game appearance and its best run in more than a decade. Lane Kiffin's staff has spent its four years at USC, with the help of sanctions, crafting a severely depleted roster and leading the school to its worst run in more than a decade.
This week, Notre Dame is coming off an open date, after which Kelly is 11-3, while USC is coming off an emotionally draining victory and now have to travel across the country to play in a crazy, hostile environment. Nothing about these programs is remotely comparable right now, and it will be evident within minutes of kickoff that the Trojans have no shot to win this one.