Tom Barton
Wyoming vs Colorado St.
Play: Wyoming -6.5
Not many people will be mentioning the Wyoming QB for awards this year but his play has gotten my attention and so has this series history. Brett Smith is an outstanding QB and he should have another big day at home today. Smith has over 1,800 yards passing already this year, 15 TD's and just 4 picks. He ranks 20th in the nation in passing yards per game and they are scoring 38 per contest. Wyoming would be getting a lot more attention if not for an unexplainable road loss 2 weeks ago but even still they have won 4 of their last 5 games and scored 34+ in every game but one this year. Their balanced offense is key as we know what Smith can do but they also rank in the top 30 in rushing yards as well. The Rams have a bad defense and that is putting it nicely. This team is letting up 33 per game and the only to team not see 30 was Cal Poly of the sub division. Smith must be licking his chops after watching David Fales last week pass for 431 yards against this D and it should happen again today. They beat the Rams last year 45-31 and have won 4 straight. In Wyoming they have won the last two games 89-31. I fully expect Wyoming to again get into the mid 40's here and the Rams won't keep pace.
EZWINNERS
West Virginia +5.5
Texas Tech heads to West Virginia ranked #16 in the nation with a perfect 6-0 record but they have played an incredibly weak schedule that ranks 94th in the nation in strength. The Red Raiders have also played four of their games at home and another game in Dallas. Tech's only game out of the state of Texas so far has been against a horrible Kansas Jayhawks team. West Virginia enters this game at just 3-3, but the Mountaineers have played the 11th toughest schedule in college football. WVU has a big home field advantage and you can bet the student section will be in full force with the West "Fuckin" Virginia T-shirts. The Mountaineers will have a lot of motivation for this game with Texas Tech being undefeated and ranked in the top twenty as well as the revenge motivation for a 49-14 loss to the Red Raiders in Lubbock last season. WVU has also had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Mountaineers have lost at home by more than five points only twice in their last 54 home games. Take the points.
Army -1
Army enters this game at 3-4 coming off of their biggest win of the season. The Black Knights rolled up 511 yards rushing last week in their win over Eastern Michigan. Army junior running back Terry Baggett accounted for a school record 304 of those yards and scored four touchdowns as part of the 50-25 win. Temple is still winless and is having a horrible season at 0-6. The Cadets will be highly motivated to ensure that the Owls continue their misery as they surely remember last season's meeting at West Point which was a 63-32 Temple romp. The Black Knights are the number one ranked rushing team in college football and I expect them to have a field day against a Temple defense that ranks 93rd against the run. Stopping the run is going to be a tough task for Temple in my opinion. The Owls are ranked that low against the run despite facing teams that really don't run the ball all that well. Look for the Cadets to use their ground forces to pick up the win. Play on Army.
UCLA +4.5
This is a rematch of last years PAC-12 championship game that saw Stanford come out on top 27-24. I like UCLA to get their revenge in this game as they two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions. Stanford is on a 1-6 slide against the spread as a favorite and their offense just doesn't have the playmakers as they have had in the past. Stanford is just 72nd in the nation in total offense and 91st in the nation in passing offense. Cardinals quarterback Kevin Hogan is solid, but he is not the big play threat that the Bruins have under center. The Bruins defense lacks the experience of Stanford, but they have incrediable team speed that the Cardinals cannot match. UCLA is 5-1 against the spread as an underdog under head coach Jim Mora Jr and they have a big play dual threat quarterback in Brett Hundley. The Bruins outgained the Cardinals 461 to 325 in last season's PAC-12 Championship game against a much better Stanford defense with a young receiver corp that was hit hard by injuries. With a year of experience under their belts and Stanford dropping off some from last year, I like the Bruins in this one. Take the points..
Bob Balfe
Arizona -4
Utah got a huge win over Stanford last week and are high off of that. I don’t want to say they are overlooking Arizona, but they for sure have been partying all week. Utah is just like the Seahawks in the NFL. That home stadium is impossible for opponents to win in. Arizona actually did go in there last year and did win. This Utah team is not a good road team and that is why the Wildcats are favored here. In fact this year I didn’t expect Utah to be that great of a football team. They have played well in a tough schedule, but again they were at home. This is night and day we are talking about. Carey is one of the best if not the best running back in the nation and at home I expect him to run this team to a big win. Arizona has slipped up a little this year, but their defense is very good and I expect them to win big here. Take Arizona.
Carlos Salazar
California vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon -10
Carlos has found another bad line for Saturday as he's showing Oregon St should be listed as at least a 20 point favorite. The Beavers are scoring over 43 points per game while California is giving up over 43 points per game. Carlos is looking for Oregon St. to score early and often in this one and cover the 10 points with ease.
DAVE COKIN
UTAH STATE NEW MEXICO
Take: UTAH STATE
Utah State started the season looking like a legit possibility to capture the Mountain West title. Those hopes pretty much crashed and burned when star QB Chuckie Keeton went down with a season ending knee injury. Now the task for the Aggies is to find a way to regroup and still at least qualify for a bowl game.
The first win post-Keeton should come tonight as Utah State heads to Albuquerque for a clash with New Mexico. The Aggies will be going with a first-time starter at QB as Darell Garretson gets the call. There’s always some trepidation with backing a true freshman making his first start on the road, but Garretson at least got some snaps in the loss last week to Boise State. Beyond that, this shapes up as a good matchup for the visitors. Utah State is tough against the run, and they have familiarity with the offense they’ll be seeing from the Lobos tonight. That’s a significant factor as New Mexico has to run the football well to compete.
The Lobos put up a terrific fight at Wyoming before losing 38-31 last week. But that was against a Cowboys entry that cannot stop the run. That won’t be the case here, and if the Lobos have to go to the air to put together drives, they’re probably in plenty of trouble.
New Mexico also could have QB issues her from a health standpoint. Their top two signal callers are both banged up and it’s possible they might have to turn to untested David Vega, although late week word is that the condition of the top two guys has improved some.
Worse is the New Mexico defense, which is also not healthy and even when they are, cannot stop anything. The Lobos are allowing an astonishing 6.5 ypc while also surrendering a 65% completion rate.
Let’s sum this up. New Mexico is bad to begin with and now has to face a team that defenses the option well. Utah State really needs to prove they can win without their superstar, so there’s very little chance they come into this contest unfocused. But thanks to the Keeton injury, this number is now more than playable. No hesitation here in backing Utah State to roll to the road win and cover.
Triple Threat Sports
Fresno State (-) over UNLV
We are from Vegas so the Rebels are our local team, and we cannot help but notice that the Rebs are feeling a sense of accomplishment having won four in a row, all the while looking forward to next week's game against Nevada, the biggest rival on the schedule. As such, have a hard time seeing UNLV totally focused and ready for this game, and with FSU off a bye and as such well prepared, this one has the makings of a result similar (and likely worse) to UNLV's trip to Minnesota to start the season, a game that the Gophers won by 28.
Nelly
Texas A&M - over Auburn
The Aggies survived last week's big test at Mississippi to move to 5-1 and the next four games are all at home in games Texas A&M should be a solid favorite in. The Aggies are a young team that is a work in progress but like last season by season's end they may be one of the elite teams in the nation. Last season the Aggies won 63-21 over Auburn and while this year's Tigers team is also 5-1 the schedule has been favorable. The lone road game is the lone loss for Auburn and last season Johnny Manziel and company put up 671 yards in this series last season. Auburn has been soundly out-gained in two of its wins and the Texas A&M defense has worse numbers than deserved just based on how quickly the offense has scored and playing with big leads in several games. Jeremy Johnson played well filling in for Nick Marshall at quarterback last week for Auburn but this will be a much tougher matchup than FCS Western Carolina presented last week. Marshall could be back but it is unlikely he could keep pace in this matchup and Auburn has limited options in the passing game. It has been an encouraging start for Auburn but the schedule gets tough down the stretch and the Tigers are likely to fall to the middle of the pack.
Dr Bob
Top 25
Texas Tech (-5½) 32 WEST VIRGINIA 27
My math model favors Texas Tech by 6 points in this game but West Virginia has only lost twice by 6 points or more in their last 54 home games and they beat Oklahoma State straight up her a few weeks ago as an 18 point underdog.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-7½) 25 Tcu 19
As expected TCU has the best defense in the Big 12 and the 37 points and 5.8 yards per play that the Horned Frogs allowed to LSU in their opening day loss doesn’t look so bad now considering how good LSU’s offense is (they’d average 7.5 yppl against an average team). TCU has also held good offensive teams Texas Tech and Oklahoma to 20 points each the Horned Frogs’ stop unit, allowing 4.7 yppl against teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team, has a significant advantage over a surprisingly modest Oklahoma State offense that has been just 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) thanks to a bad rushing attack that has averaged only 3.6 yards per rushing play since running for 286 yards at 7.2 yprp in their opener against Mississippi State.
The strength of the Cowboys is a defense that’s allowed just 20 points per game and 4.8 yppl this season and rates at 1.1 yppl better than average when excluding the chunks of yards that their backups allowed to UTSA in week 2 after building a big lead. TCU is a bit worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) so the Horned Frogs aren’t likely to have much success moving the ball in this game. Oklahoma State won’t have a lot of success offensively either and overall my math model favors the Cowboys by just 6 points in what should be a low scoring game. I should mention that Oklahoma State is 34-10 ATS as a favorite from 5 to 24 points under coach Gundy, but they’ve failed twice this year in that range.
South Carolina (-7) 35 TENNESSEE 26
South Carolina doesn’t have the nasty defense that they had last year, as the Gamecocks rate at just 0.7 yppl better than average defensively after being 1.2 yppl better than average last year. However, the South Carolina offense is 1.3 yppl better than average and should have no troble scoring against a mediocre Tennessee defense that’s allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Tennessee’s offense runs the ball well (5.8 yprp) and should be able to move the chains on the ground against a mediocre Gamecocks’ run defense and my math model projects a decent 5.6 yppl overall for the Volunteers in this game. Overall the math favors South Carolina by 9 points and there are situations favoring both sides in this game. The over (54 points) also looks like a pretty solid play.
Georgia (-7) 34 VANDERBILT 28
Georgia’s prolific passing attack has been derailed the last two weeks by injuries to two of the top 3 receivers and the Bulldogs have gone from averaging 10.9 yards per pass play in their first 4 games to just 5.6 yppp the last two weeks. Despite the last two weeks Georgia still rates as a good passing team based on season long yards per target averages of the available receivers, but Aaron Murray is throwing the ball to his running backs way more often, as 15 of his 20 attempts this season to backs Douglas and Green were in last week’s game and those two only average 6.1 yards per attempt, which is much less than the 10.0 yards per attempt that the receivers and tight ends average for the Bulldogs. I calculate that Georgia should be 1.4 yards per pass play worse than their season average without Scott-Wesley and Bennett based on last week’s pass distribution. That would result in my math favoring Georgia by 9 points in this game but the Bulldogs apply to a negative 83-151-9 ATS road favorite situation that is based on last week’s loss. I’ll lean slightly with Vandy plus the points.
Florida (-3) 26 MISSOURI 19
My season win bet on Missouri over 6 wins is looking pretty good now that the Tigers are 6-0 following their upset win at Georgia. I don’t think the loss of starting quarterback James Franklin will be much of a factor at all, as freshman Maty Mauk was highly touted coming out of high school and his statistics in preseason scrimmages were about the same as Franklin’s numbers. In fact, there was actually some talk about Mauk beating out Franklin. Franklin has had a good season so far but I don’t think Mauk will be much of a drop off, if any. However, there are very few quarterbacks or offenses that are likely to look too good against a great Florida defense that’s allowed just 13 points per game on 234 yards at 4.2 yards per play despite facing a schedule of good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri’s offense is 0.9 yppl better than average but Florida’s opponents are collectively 0.7 yppl better than average so the Tigers aren’t expected to do much better than the rest of the teams that the Gators shut down even if Mauk is just as good as Franklin was.
Missouri does have an average with their defense (0.5 yppl better than average) against a Florida attack that rates as average but Florida’s 1.3 yppl advantage over Missouri’s offense and the Gators’ play advantage over their opponents (they run 12 more plays per game than their opponents while Missouri is at -2 plays) is enough to make them a 56% play at -3 based on the historical performance of my math model. However, Missouri does apply to an 81-27-2 ATS home momentum situation but the line value in favor of Florida is more significant than the situation favoring the Tigers.
Northern Illinois (-15½) 40 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23
Central Michigan is just 3-20 ATS as an underdog or pick when not coming off a bye week under their current head coach but the Chippewas did manage to upset Ohio as a big dog last week. That win could put Northern Illinois on alert and my math model favors the Huskies by 17 points.
Oklahoma (-22½) 35 KANSAS 16
It’s tough to know how Oklahoma will react to their first loss of the season last week against Texas. Generally, teams that start the season 5-0 or better tend to suffer a letdown against mediocre or bad teams that week after their first loss and the Sooners apply to a 4-30 ATS road favorite situation that is based on that premise. However, Oklahoma is also 16-3 ATS in conference games after a conference loss under coach Bob Stoops with a median margin of 28 points (although just 3-2 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more). My math model gives Kansas a 54% chance of covering and that’s the way I’ll lean here.
TEXAS A&M (-13½) 45 Auburn 35
Texas A&M is once against one of the best offensive teams in the nation, as Johnny Manziel has become an even better passer this season. However, the Aggies had a decent defense last year thanks to 1st Team All American DE Damontre Moore, who registered 12.5 sacks and 21 total tackles for loss in 2012. Without Moore the Aggies are terrible defensively, allowing 6.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Auburn has a good offense (6.2 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) that will exploit that weak Aggies’ defense and keep this game relatively close. Texas A&M has scored 41 points or more in every game and should do so again but the Aggies have also allowed an average of 32 points per game and Auburn’s offense is better than the average attack that A&M has faced. The math model actually favors A&M by 12 points (with a total of 80 points) but the Aggies apply to a 20-69 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation. I like Auburn plus the points and I like the over (73 points).
STANFORD (-5½) 27 Ucla 24
Teams with national championship aspirations often suffer a down week after their first loss of the season and Stanford does apply to a negative 8-36 ATS situation that is based on that premise. It certainly wouldn’t be much of an upset if UCLA won this game given that the Bruins are actually just as good from the line of scrimmage. Stanford is known for their strong defense and the Cardinal have been good on that side of the ball (5.0 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team), but UCLA is actually better defensively, rating at 1.5 yppl better than average on the stop side of the ball after excluding the 151 yards on 17 plays that their backups gave up in a blowout win over New Mexico State. Stanford actually has the more efficient offense on a yards per play basis, averaging 6.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) while UCLA’s offense has been just 0.4 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average team). Overall, the yards per play ratings are pretty close and Stanford’s edge in special teams (both are good but Stanford ranks among the best in the nation) is balanced out by UCLA’s edge in projected plays. Overall the math favors Stanford by 5 points but the Cardinal apply to that negative situation that is based on last week’s loss and UCLA applies to a 118-52-4 ATS statistical match up indicator. I’ll lean with UCLA plus the points.
OHIO STATE (-17½) 31 Iowa 18
Ohio State isn’t as good as their lofty #4 rating, as I rate the Buckeyes as the 15th best team in the nation. Urban Meyer’s team beat up some below average team the first few weeks of the season but they’ve struggled against better than average team Wisconsin and Northwestern in their last two games, as they averaged 422 yards at 6.0 yards per play and allowed 419 yards at 6.3 yppl in those two games. Ohio State is a good team, rating at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (with either quarterback) and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively but they’re not good enough to be favored by more than two touchdowns against a pretty solid Iowa squad that 0.3 yppl better than average (0.3 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively). My math model gives Iowa a profitable 53.7% chance of covering in this game against the overrated Buckeyes.
BAYLOR (-33½) 58 Iowa State 24
I mentioned last week that it would be highly improbable that Baylor continued to be as incredibly good on offense as they were in their first 4 games, in which they averaged close to 10 yards a play and scored 69 points or more in every game. Baylor ONLY averaged 7.6 yppl last week against a better than average Kansas State defense in a 35-25, non-covering win. Baylor’s offensive rating is still in unchartered territory at 3.8 yppl better than average (9.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). Iowa State is just average defensively, so it’s certainly possible that Baylor could hang their 63 point average on the Cyclones, but my math model is calling for a 58-24 win.
ALABAMA (-29) 34 Arkansas 10
Despite their 4 game losing streak Arkansas is a better than average team with an offense that is 0.7 yards per play better than average with quarterback Brandon Allen in the game and a defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl. Alabama was great last week in beating up on a decent Kentucky team 48-7 but the Crimson Tide are not as good as they’ve been in recent years and they also haven’t covered the spread in consecutive weeks. Alabama 1.3 yppl better than average on offense and I do think the Tide defense is better than their season numbers of 1.1 yppl better than average since that rating was skewed by the 8.9 yppl that they allowed to Texas A&M in week 3. Using a smoothing technique that dampens that affect of outliers and taking out the yards that their backup defense gave up against Georgia State would result I a defensive rating of 1.7 yppl better than average. However, even after making those adjustments I still get Bama by just 24 points in this game and I have strong situations favoring both sides (a 62-13 ATS on Arkansas and a 69-16 ATS on Alabama) that cancel each other out. I like Arkansas plus the points in this game.
Lsu (-9) 36 MISSISSIPPI 22
LSU surprised me last week with their 17-6 win over Florida, as I thought the Gators would win that game, and it was the Tigers’ defense that was the difference. LSU had been struggling defensively but they allowed just 226 yards at 3.4 yppl to the Gators in that win and now rate at 0.6 yppl better than average for the season defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). If LSU’s defense continues to play as well as they did last week then the Tigers would be scary good considering their offense is among the best in the nation at 2.1 yppl better than average (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Ole’ Miss was exposed as a mediocre SEC team by Alabama a few weeks ago and the Rebels have since added losses to Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi is a better than average team, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.5 yppl better than average on defense but the offense takes a big hit this week if running back Jeff Scott doesn’t play (he’s listed as doubtful with a thigh contusion). Scott has run for 406 yards on just 49 runs (8.3 ypr) in 5 games against FBS opponents while the other two Rebels running backs have combined for just 176 yards on 42 runs in those games for a measly 4.2 ypr. If you replace Scott’s 8.3 ypr with the 4.2 ypr of the other two backs then the Ole’ Miss offense goes from being 0.1 yppl better than average to 0.4 yppl worse than average, which is a significant difference. My math model had LSU by 9 points without accounting for Scott’s injury and now the math gives LSU a 54.4% chance of covering at -9 points and Mississippi applies to a negative 46-120-2 ATS situation.
Florida State (-3) 34 CLEMSON 27
Florida State is a much better team than Clemson but the situation strongly favors the Tigers in this game. Clemson’s strength is an offense that has averaged 6.7 yards per play with quarterback Tajh Boyd is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but that strength is negative by a dominating Florida State defense that’s allowed just 4.4 yppl this season to 5 teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. The other side of the ball is where the Seminoles have their big advantage in this game. Florida State’s attack is led by freshman Jameis Winston, whose numbers are significantly better than Boyd’s numbers. Winston has averaged 10.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and his passing is supported by a great rushing attack that has averaged 245 yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play. Overall the Noles have averaged 8.6 yppl with Winston in the game against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offensive team. Clemson’s defense is improved this season but they Tigers stop unit is just 0.4 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they gave up 551 yards at 8.0 yppl to Georgia, the only other good offense that they’ve faced. Clemson was lucky to win that game and Florida State’s offense is 1.1 yppl better than that great Georgia attack.
I would love to bet Florida State in this game but Clemson applies to a 125-46-4 ATS situation that is 31-9 ATS if the opponent is unbeaten. My math model is more significant than the situation favoring Clemson so I still like the Seminoles to cover.
OREGON (-39½) 50 Washington State 16
My math model favors Oregon by 39 ½ points, so the line is fair, but Washington State applies to a 65-15 ATS subset of a 112-40-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that is based on their 24-52 loss to Oregon State (that game was tied heading into the 4th quarter). That situation is more than enough to get me leaning with Washington State in this game and Oregon could be due for a letdown following their showdown with a very good Washington team and a game with UCLA coming up next week. The under (73 points) also looks like a solid play with my math model projecting just 65 ½ total points, which is also what my compensated scoring model predicts.
FRESNO STATE (-24½) 48 Unlv 27
Fresno State hasn’t really been all that impressive so far this season and the Bulldogs could easily have a couple of losses on tally given their 1 point wins over Rutgers and Boise State. The Bulldogs only beat Hawaii by 5 points and didn’t cover as a 27 point favorite in a 16 point win over Cal Poly. Fresno let up after building big leads against both Cal Poly and Hawaii and they certainly didn’t let up in their 61-14 win over Idaho but they could certainly give up a late touchdown to UNLV if they even do take a lead of more than 24 points in this game, which I actually don’t think is likely. Fresno has only been 5 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage this season and UNLV isn’t so terrible since Caleb Herring took over the quarterback position from an ineffective Nick Sherry, who was averaging just 4.2 yards per pass play. Herring has averaged 6.8 yppp and is only 0.5 yppp worse than average after accounting for opposing defenses. The Rebels have a better than average rushing attack (215 yards at 5.4 yprp) and overall they’re only 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense. That’s hardly bad enough to justify such a big spread and I’ll lean with UNLV plus the points despite their bad history on the road (12-40-1 ATS, but 1-1 ATS this season).
Dr Bob
GEORGIA TECH (-7½) 30 Syracuse 23
My math model favors Georgia Tech by 10 points but Syracuse applies to a 118-52-4 ATS statistical match up indicator based on their likely success running the ball in this game (my math model projects 197 yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play).
Duke (+2½ ) 31 VIRGINIA 28
Duke's offense played well last week with starting quarterback Anthony Boone back from injury and Virginia's pass defense has started to show signs not being as good as it looked like they were - giving up 643 yards at 8.1 yards per pass play the last two weeks to Ball State and Maryland's backup quarterback. My math model picks this game even and the Cavaliers apply to a negative 46-120-2 ATS situation that is based on last week's close loss to Maryland.
Maryland (-5) 31 WAKE FOREST 21
I would love to play Maryland here, as the Terrapins are much, much, better than Wake Forest. However, the Demon Deacons apply to a very strong 55-8 ATS home dog off a bye angle that I certainly don't want to go against. Even with that angle I still was giving some consideration towards making Maryland a Best Bet in this game. It's math model (63% play based solely on the math) against a strong situation that has a 57% chance of winning based on my years of studying the predictiveness of my situations. Maryland is still the side to play based on those percentages.
NORTHWESTERN (-12½) 31 Minnesota 23
Northwestern won their first 4 games of the season as they pretended to be an elite team. They are not. The Wildcats are a better than average team that has outgained an average slate of opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.6 yppl but double-digit losses to Ohio State and Wisconsin have illustrated that the Cats just aren’t ready to compete with really good teams. Minnesota is below average team but I still think Northwestern is a bit overrated and may have trouble getting up for this game after back to back games against marquee teams. In fact, Northwestern applies to a 0-25-1 ATS situation that is based on coming off your first two losses of the season after starting the year at 4-0 or better. Northwestern should move the ball well in this game against a horrible Minnesota secondary (7.5 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would average only 5.5 yppp against an average team) but my math model only favors Northwestern by 10 points in this game and the situation is against them.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-7½) 25 Tcu 19
As expected TCU has the best defense in the Big 12 and the 37 points and 5.8 yards per play that the Horned Frogs allowed to LSU in their opening day loss doesn’t look so bad now considering how good LSU’s offense is (they’d average 7.5 yppl against an average team). TCU has also held good offensive teams Texas Tech and Oklahoma to 20 points each the Horned Frogs’ stop unit, allowing 4.7 yppl against teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team, has a significant advantage over a surprisingly modest Oklahoma State offense that has been just 0.3 yppl better than average so far this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) thanks to a bad rushing attack that has averaged only 3.6 yards per rushing play since running for 286 yards at 7.2 yprp in their opener against Mississippi State.
The strength of the Cowboys is a defense that’s allowed just 20 points per game and 4.8 yppl this season and rates at 1.1 yppl better than average when excluding the chunks of yards that their backups allowed to UTSA in week 2 after building a big lead. TCU is a bit worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) so the Horned Frogs aren’t likely to have much success moving the ball in this game. Oklahoma State won’t have a lot of success offensively either and overall my math model favors the Cowboys by just 6 points in what should be a low scoring game. I should mention that Oklahoma State is 34-10 ATS as a favorite from 5 to 24 points under coach Gundy, but they’ve failed twice this year in that range.
Oklahoma (-22 ½) 35 KANSAS 16
It’s tough to know how Oklahoma will react to their first loss of the season last week against Texas. Generally, teams that start the season 5-0 or better tend to suffer a letdown against mediocre or bad teams that week after their first loss and the Sooners apply to a 4-30 ATS road favorite situation that is based on that premise. However, Oklahoma is also 16-3 ATS in conference games after a conference loss under coach Bob Stoops with a median margin of 28 points (although just 3-2 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more). My math model gives Kansas a 54% chance of covering and that’s the way I’ll lean here.
Ball State (-19½) 38 WESTERN MICHIGAN 17
Western Michigan's offense is bad and the Broncos' attack is a disaster without starting quarterback Tyler Van Tubbergen, who is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. Western Michigan was shutout last week at home by Buffalo and my math model doesn't like their chances to cover this week either. The math gives Ball State a 53.6% chance of covering but the Broncos do apply to a 107-45-3 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams with bad spread records.
Northern Illinois (-15½) 40 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 23
Central Michigan is just 3-20 ATS as an underdog or pick when not coming off a bye week under their current head coach but the Chippewas did manage to upset Ohio as a big dog last week. That win could put Northern Illinois on alert and my math model favors the Huskies by 17 points.
WYOMING (-6) 35 Colorado State 34
WYOMING (-6) 37 Colorado State 33 (if Barrett does not play for CSU)
My math model gives Colorado State a profitable 55% chance of covering if the Rams' star LB Shaquil Barrett. Barrett is in line for All-American honors with his nation's leading 12.5 tackles for loss, including 6.5 sacks, and he also has 2 blocked field goals to his credit. I value Barrett at 2.4 points, which is about as high as it gets for defensive player, so his status is very important. Barrett practiced in limited fashion on Wednesday so he may play, but he may not be 100% if he does play. If Barrett were 100% I would have likely played Colorado State in this game and I'll still lean with the Rams even if Barrett doesn't play at all.
FRESNO STATE (-24½) 48 Unlv 27
Fresno State hasn’t really been all that impressive so far this season and the Bulldogs could easily have a couple of losses on tally given their 1 point wins over Rutgers and Boise State. The Bulldogs only beat Hawaii by 5 points and didn’t cover as a 27 point favorite in a 16 point win over Cal Poly. Fresno let up after building big leads against both Cal Poly and Hawaii and they certainly didn’t let up in their 61-14 win over Idaho but they could certainly give up a late touchdown to UNLV if they even do take a lead of more than 24 points in this game, which I actually don’t think is likely. Fresno has only been 5 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage this season and UNLV isn’t so terrible since Caleb Herring took over the quarterback position from an ineffective Nick Sherry, who was averaging just 4.2 yards per pass play. Herring has averaged 6.8 yppp and is only 0.5 yppp worse than average after accounting for opposing defenses. The Rebels have a better than average rushing attack (215 yards at 5.4 yprp) and overall they’re only 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively and 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense. That’s hardly bad enough to justify such a big spread and I’ll lean with UNLV plus the points despite their bad history on the road (12-40-1 ATS, but 1-1 ATS this season).
Oregon State (-10½) 40 CALIFORNIA 29
Cal's porous pass defense (8.2 yards per pass play allowed) takes on Oregon's Sean Mannion, who has averaged 8.0 yppp), and that is not likely to turn out too well for the Golden Bears. My math model favors the Beavers by 14 points but Cal applies to a 107-45-3 ATS contrary indicator that is based on their bad spread record and Oregon State applies to an 85-197-4 ATS road letdown situation. I'll pass.
Jason Sharpe
Navy (+8.5) over Toledo
This Navy squad is better than they have looked in their last few losses. The Midshipmen were beating a solid Western Kentucky team on the road a few weeks ago only to lose their all-everything quarterback Keenan Reynolds to an injury in the 2nd quarter of that game. Without Reynolds running the show, the Navy offense came to a screeching halt, and they lost by a 19-7 score. After a solid win over Air Force, Navy than went into Duke who was off a bye week and was also getting their starting quarterback from injury. It was just too much to overcome for Navy as the much-improved Blue Devils took advantage of three Navy turnovers and pulled away late in the game. Keep in mind this is also a Navy squad that has a very impressive road victory over Indiana on their earlier season resume also and who won't be intimidated as they have played all their toughest games on the road so far this season.
Toledo comes into this game 3-3 on the season and off of a bye week last weekend. The Rockets, at 2-1 in conference play, have their sights set on winning the Mid-American Conference this year. You have to wonder just how much motivation there is here for them in this nonconference affair against Navy. They have a huge game with Bowling Green coming up next weekend, and that's probably where a lot of their focus and attention is at right now. A lot of teams play better off of a bye week, but that's not been the case with Toledo in the past as they come in having failed to cover any of their last six post bye week contests, going 0-6 ATS in those games.
I still don't think we have seen just how good this Navy team really can be. Both of their last two losses they were in bad spots overall. They can keep this one close here against what should be a Toledo team looking ahead to their big conference game next week. Take Navy and the points in this one.
Strike Point Sports
Washington / Arizona State Over 60
With two offenses that really get up and down the field, I expect this total to be eclipsed by the Sun Devils and Huskies on Saturday. Both have quarterbacks that bring an explosive component to the field; Keith Price with his legs and Taylor Kelly with his spread offense and quick release. Plus, UW should be able to get yards on the ground in chunks with Bishop Hankey. USC was able to run all over ASU, and I feel they are more susceptible to the ground attack than their strong pass defense. I see both offenses putting up 30+ in this one in Tempe. Arizona State will be a little bit better at home, but the total goes above the number with these two. 41-34 to Arizona State.
Sam Martin
Maryland at Wake Forest
Prediction: Maryland
We faded the Terps the last time they went out on the road (Florida State) and looked horrible in a shutout 63-0 loss against the Seminoles. We stayed away from them last week in the obvious letdown spot (but we don't like Virginia either) and they came away with a straight up, one-point win but ATS loss against the Cavaliers. This week, we'll back Maryland as they look to get back on track against Wake Forest who is in a letdown spot of their own. Demon Deacons upset NC State as a big eight-point home underdog two weeks ago (coming into this game off a bye) and their lack of a legitimate rushing attack plus a poor pass defense plays perfectly to Maryland's strengths. Terps should be able to contain WF's rushing attack and score at will on this defense. Wake Forest is only 1-9 ATS at home playing with rest and we like Maryland to win this game big.
Scott Spreitzer
Indiana at Michigan
Prediction: Indiana
The Wolverines fell apart last weekend just when it looked like they had Penn State on ice near the end of regulation. Instead, Michigan was upended in OT and now must look to rebound against a "game" Indiana team. While Michigan will attempt to recover from the loss, Indiana can feel good about their offense despite their loss to Michigan State. The Hoosiers scored 28 points in the 14-point loss, but gained over 140 yards more than the stout Spartan defense had been allowing on the season. Indiana owns the nation's 13th best passing offense and average over 500 total yards per game. It's a potent attack that will face a Michigan defense allowing nearly 230 yards passing per contest and gave up 305 yards passing and 3 TD passes to Penn State freshman QB Christian Hackenburg. Indiana's offense can be counted on to keep the team in games having scored at least 28 points in each of their last seven games. They're catching the Wolverines at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Michigan heads into this one on a 12-29 ATS slide in Big-10 play and I expect another close contest at the Big House. I'm recommending a play on Indiana plus the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Ohio State -17½
The Hawkeyes are outmatched from all the key angles in this game. Iowa's ability to keep games close comes from their strong run defense. They face a lot of run biased teams playing in the Big Ten. While Ohio State has leaned towards the run this season, they are also a great passing team. The Buckeyes have completed 67.1% of their pass attempts for 212 yards per game. Ohio State is averaging 47.2 points per game at home this season, making them an offense that is hard to defend against.
I don't think the Iowa offense is going to be able to put up many points against this stout Buckeyes defense. The Buckeyes are holding opponents to a mere 2.6 yards per carry at home, and Iowa has averaged 47 running plays of their 76 offensive possessions. The passing game has struggled in comparison to the Buckeyes. Iowa is completing under 60% of their pass attempts, and they face a Buckeyes secondary allowing a 57.7% completion rate at home for 181 passing yards per game.
Alex Smart
North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: North Texas -6½
Skip Holtz the skipper of LATech continues to make bad decisions both on and off the field, which dates back to his last days at USF. He has the type of team that plays to survive and not win, and today Im betting he gets out coached and out played by a superior North Texas Mean Green side.