Jeffrey Brandes
Wisconsin -14
Key Trends:
Wisconsin Badgers are 16-4-2 ATS After 2 Unders (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini are 144-174-4 ATS All Games (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini are 69-98-3 ATS As Home (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini are 66-88-3 ATS After 1 Losses (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini are 63-89-3 ATS After 1 As Dog (All Lines)
Illinois Fighting Illini are 43-61-2 ATS After Playing a Good Team (All Lines)
Andy Iskoe
Georgia -6.5
Last week's loss to Missouri was damaging but not fatal to Georgia's hopes of reaching the SEC Title game, although they likely no longer have a shot at the BCS Title even if they win the SEC Championship. Vanderbilt also lost at home to Missouri prior to last week's Bye. Both teams posted similar offensive statistics against the Tigers but Georgia's defense fared better in its loss, allowing just 375 yards while Vandy allowed 523, and faring much better on a yards per play basis (5.5 vs 7.4). Vandy is down considerably this season and has faced a much weaker schedule than the Bulldogs. Georgia has dominated this series, winning 9 of 10 over the past decade including 6 straight. 4 of the last 5 wins have been by double digits including wins by 45, 43 and 24 points. The gap in talent is huge with Georgia's depth enabling them to cope with early season injuries. A much tougher schedule has Georgia's defensive stats giving the appearance of a weak unit. The defense has improved, especially vs the run.
Brady Kannon
Clemson +3.5
I went to Georgia at Clemson to kick off Week One of college football and it was an incredible day. ESPN Game Day on campus bright and early and 84-thousand fans there until late at night.. but my guys tell me this one will be bigger.. which is hard to believe, but I do. Game Day is there again and this match up of Top 5 teams in the country ought to be large. From a spread perspective, what I like about this game is that quite a few folks, early in the week, were ready to jump on Florida State -2.5 and apparently they did as we see the line has gone north of that.. but I am not ready to give Clemson over a field goal at home. Florida State ripped Maryland and then took a week off.. and how about this.. The Seminoles are 1-and-6 on the road after a bye and Coach Fisher is 1-and-4 ATS on the road against a .700 or better opponent. Meanwhile, The Tigers are 4-and-0 ATS in this series. With Clemson's ability to disrupt Jameis and the fact that they are an underdog in Death Valley - by over a field goal.. can't sell me on that. In what hopes to be a beauty, were going to grab the points and watch The Tigers run down the hill and run over The Seminoles.
Charlie Scott
Colorado State vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming -6.5
Note the 11am Kickoff for Today's game in the "Border War" a matchup between Mountain West Teams Colorado St at Wyoming. This is the oldest rivalry West of Missouri. Wyoming has won the "Border War the last 4 Years and I expect them to win Today and keep the "Bronze Boot!" Scoring points won't be a problem as Wyoming runs a fast paced offense led by QB Brett Smith vs a Colorado St defense that struggles to stop the pass.
Doug Upstone
Kansas vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -22
On Saturday, PLAY ON road favorites like Oklahoma, an excellent rushing team, averaging 4.8 or more yards a carry, against a poor rushing team like Kansas, who averages 3 to 3.5 yards per carry, in conference games. In the last five years, this college football system is 34-8, 81 percent, including 3-0 this season!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
BYU Houston Under 64: I really don't get this line and the 10 point line move from the opening number scares me a but but still I don't see how this game reached 60 points. BYU has played just one game that put up over 58 points and that was the 61 points that were scored in the Texas game. The BYU style of play and their defense just won't make for a lot of high scoring games. BYU likes to run the ball plenty and that will eat clock, while their defense is comes in allowing just 17.3 ppg, 345.6 ypg and 4.5 yards per play on the year. This is a tough defense that will be taking on an inconsistent Houston offense. The Cougars have scored 39.8 ppg this year, but have scored just 34.5 ppg vs FBS teams and have scored more than 31 points only twice in their 5 games. For BYU their bread an butter on offense is their run game that has averaged 263 ypg, to rank 13th in the nation, but the strength of this Houston defense is their run defense that as allowed just 126.6 ypg to rank 26th in the nation, while they also have allowed just 3.5 ypc. Both defenses are more than capable of stopping their opponent in this one and with BYU running allot and Houston's average offense we should see a game in the LOW 50's at best here. Hell it may not get out of the 40's.
3 UNIT PLAY
Indiana/ Michigan Over 67: Indiana does not like to play low scoring games as evidenced by the fact that their games have averaged 74.5 ppg. The OU is 5-1 in their games this year and with Kevin Wilson as coach of the Hoosiers, the Over is 17-3 when they are an underdog. The Indiana offense has been great this year, putting up 504 ypg and 41.7 ppg, while their defense has been awful, allowing 456.5 ypg and 32.8 ppg this year. Last week Indiana put up 351 yards and 28 points vs a much tougher defense (Michigan State) than they will face in this one. Now to show just how bad they are on defense, they allowed 473 yards and 42 points to one of the weakest offense in the Big 10 last week. The Michigan offense has been very solid this year as they have put up 395.7 ypg and 39 ppg on the year and should have no problems topping at least 8 points in this one, while Indiana should be good for at least 31 of their own. This has the feel of a 42-34 type game.
2 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota +12 over NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats are beat up at RB and QB and their defense is a mess this year, allowing 447.3 ypg and 28.3 ppg on the year. The Gophers come in at 4-2 on the year and have vowed to play hard the rest of the year for coach Jerry Kill, who has taken a leave to deal with his seizures. The Gophers also have the better defense here as they have allowed 383 ypg and 24.3 ppg on the year. With Northwestern 2-10 ATS as Big 10 home favorites of 8 or more, I will look for the Gophers to keep this one close.
1 UNIT PLAYS
BUFFALO -19.5 over UMass: The Minutemen got a win last week over Miami OH, but that is nothing special and they did score just 17 points in the game. Buffalo comes in hot as they have won their last 3 games by 29, 28 and 33 points and UMass will be the weakest teams they will have played over that stretch. Buffalo by at least 24 points in this one.
LSU/ Ole Miss Over 60: The SEC is no longer just a defensive league. A lot of the games in the league this year have been shootouts and I see this one as the same. The LSU offense is no more a conservative one as they look to put up points in bunches and come in averaging 41.4 ppg. Their defense has not been up to LSU standards and should allow a very good Ole Miss offense to put up plenty points of their own. I see this one finishing like 35-28.
UNLV + 25 over Fresno State: I will go with the momentum of the Rebels in this one. In no way do I expect them to pull the outright upset, but this team is a very confident one right now and should be able to hang with in the big number. Both teams possess high powered offenses and UNLV should be able to match points with a Bulldog squad that has allowed 33.4 ppg and 444.8 ypg on the year. Yes the UNLV defense has allowed 36 ppg on the year, but just 28.3 ppg in their last 3 games. The stats for these teams are pretty even, so in know way would I expect the Rebels to lose this one by 24+ points. The Fresno defense will keep this highly motivated UNLV squad in the game the whole four quarters.
Top 5 Power Angles For The Week (8-6-1)
Eastern Michigan is 0-16 ATS at home is the OU line is less than 64 and they are coming off a road loss. Play On Ohio -16.5 over Eastern Michigan
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is 2-13 ATS when coming off at least consecutive wins. Play On Clemson +3 over Florida State
California is 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games FBS opponents. Play on Oregon State -10.5 over California
Mississippi is 12-0-1 ATS in the 2nd game of at least a 3 game home stand. Play On Mississippi +10 over LSU
Purdue is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss of 30 or more points. Play On Michigan State -28 Over Purdue
A Little Something Extra (5-2-1)
West Virginia is 21-3 straight up at home when playing with rest. The 3 losses were by 1, 3 and 4 points. Play On West Virginia +5 Over Texas Tech
Teams with a record worse than .750 and ran for 500+ yards in their last game are 19-2-1 ATS vs an opponent that lost their last game by 3 or more points. Play On Army 1.5 Over Temple
System Of The Week (2-1)
Play on any dog from game 6 on out if both teams are undefeated and the dog is off a SU win of 7 or more and their opponent is off a spread win of 7 or more. Teams in this spot are 24-4-2 ATS, since 1980. Play On Clemson +3 over Florida State
The Real Animal
Virginia / Duke Over 52.5
There was talk about UVA having a legitimate defense early in the season. But that’s gone by the wayside after allowing 48 points and over 500 yards to Ball State and then 27-points and 468 yards to Maryland with the Terps missing QB C.J. Brown and while committing three turnovers. That lack of defense is what’s primarily responsible for a three-game losing streak and making this line so cheap. There’s nothing wrong with the Cavalier offense right now. Last week they compiled over 500 yards against Maryland the week before had 236 rushing and 223 passing despite four turnovers against Ball State. Meanwhile Duke got a boost last week when QB Anthony Boone got a surprise start and tossed three touchdown passes in a 28-point blowout win over Navy. But that came after the Blue Devils surrendered 31 to troy, 58 to Pittsburgh, and 38 to Georgia Tech. Duke is on a 6-0 ‘OVER’ streak when they allow 150 or more rushing yards. UVA has ran for 236 or more in three of their last four games. The Blue Devils are also 10-2 ‘OVER’ the total when listed as an underdog the past two years. Those 12 games have produced an average of 70.7 points a game. Since the Oregon game on September 7, Virginia is 4-1 ‘OVER’. We saw 59-points scored last year when Duke destroyed Virginia 42-17. In that contest both teams averaged over five yards a carry and we saw almost 500-yards in passing with 79 attempts. Go ‘OVER’ 52 ½.
Lee Williams
Vancouver vs. Pittsburgh
Play: 5½
Pittsburgh and Vancouver continue to draw perceptions as high octane offensive teams and thus a 5.5 Total on this game. Penguins games have only totaled over 5 on 2 of 7 occasions this season.Under is also 17-8 in Penguins last 25 home games and Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.We look for a close had fought game and like Under here
Red Dog Sports
Tampa Bay +104
The TB Lightning are at home and 5-1 in their last 6. Boston is just 1-4 in their last 5 trips to Tampa. Some books still have Tampa Bay as an underdog (+104) while others have moved it to -105.
Bill Biles
Northern Illinois -15
Huskies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Huskies are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
They have to keep pace with Ball State in the conference so look for them to rebound after a tough game last week.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +106 over Boston
Regulation only. We’ve lost such a high percentage of OT games over the past three years that we’re going to exclude extra time from our bets until further notice. So, all of these games from now on will either be -½ puck or + juice in regulation only.
The Bruins favored in Tampa Bay is incorrect. Boston won its first two games of the year over Tampa and Detroit but both those games were in Boston, the B’s were outplayed by the Lightning and they are just 2-2 since with wins over Florida and Columbus. The Bruins are good but they are not better than they were a year ago or even two years ago for that matter. Zdeno Chara’s minutes are way down because the Bruins don’t want to burn him out during the regular season. Boston no longer has Tyler Seguin, Nathan Horton, Rich Peverly, Jaromir Jagr or Andrew Ference and that group played a huge role in the success of this team in the past.
In case you hadn’t noticed, the Bolts have won five of seven games with only losses occurring against Pittsburgh, 5-4,(Anders Lindback was in goal) and the aforementioned game against Boston. Among their wins, the Bolts have defeated Chicago, they buried the Kings, 5-1 and they also whacked the Panthers 7-2. Tampa’s strong start is not an aberration. The Lightning have plenty of point producers, their D-corps is stacked – Victor Hedman is a stud, Matt Carle is too, and guys like Sami Salo, Mattias Ohlund and Eric Brewer aren’t exactly duds. The best part however, or most important addition was goaltender Ben Bishop. This guy is a true giant in net that could end up being one of the top three goalies in the league and a perennial all-star for years. He’s that good. No way should the B’s be favored here.
Nashville +161 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. The Canadiens are hot with four wins in a row to run their record to 5-2. However, they have yet to defeat a team above .500 (Philly, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Edmonton and Columbus) and they also lost to the Flames in Calgary. The Habs also blew a 3-0 lead over the Jackets in their last game but scored with just over a minute left in regulation to pull out the victory. That was Montreal’s first game back from a four-game swing to the Canadian West Coast, making this its second game back. Nashville plays a similar style to that of the Jackets, which is a style that Montreal usually does not thrive in. The Predators are also quietly heating up.
Nashville has picked up points in four of its past five games. The only game in which they did not pick up a point was against Toronto in a game in which they were clearly the better team in. In four of the past five seasons, everyone has counted the Predators out ahead of the season. Last year educated observers nailed it, as the Preds struggled mightily. For once a massive loss in free-agency proved too much for the Preds. As it turns out, Ryan Suter’s defection was more than “just a flesh wound” for the NHL’s Black Knight. Still, we’re talking about one of the smartest, best run organizations in professional hockey. At the end of the day, smart guys like Barry Trotz and Dave Poile won’t be kept down for long. The Predators made some adjustments and now it’s more minutes for the likes of Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones, Craig Smith, Matt Hendricks and Colin Wilson. The Predators snapped up seemingly every available above average second and third line forward on the market. They’ve got a serious surplus of quality forwards, which will allow them to run four lines and beat up on tired opponents late in games. In a league with increasing parity, depth rules, and the versatile Predators forwards have that in spades. On the back-end Shea Weber remains the second best defenseman on planet earth, Roman Josi is coming into his own and learning how to control games and Seth Jones is getting better with each passing period. In goal the Predators still employ a certain freak of nature named Pekka Rinne. Rinne is unequivocally the most unique, dominant force in goal in the entire NHL. Rinne combines the best glove hand in the league (by a country mile), with Brodeur-quality puck-handling. When he’s down in his butterfly, he’s a giant (stands 6,5). He’s also faster and more agile than any man his size has any right to be. Scoring on Rinne is tough enough, doing so with Weber in front of him is a nightmare. The Preds are going to play a 200 foot game like they always do. They won’t score too much but they’ll grind out wins with polish and professionalism and as a +161 pooch in any game, they offer up a ton of value.
InsiderAngles Sports
Arkansas vs Alabama
Pick : Alabama
The top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0, 3-3 ATS) have been smothering people all year and things should be no different when they host the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4, 2-5 ATS) from Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL Saturday night at 7:00 ETon ESPN. If not for a 49-42 win over Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies, people would be including the 2013 Tide with some of the best defenses ever. Now, Arkansas has to deal with that defense with either a backup quarterback or a starter whose performance lately has been hindered by a finger injury on his right throwing hand.
If you take away that one game vs. Texas A&M where Alabama allowed the most points ever with Nick Saban as coach, the Crimson Tide allowed 10, 6, 0, 3 and 7 points respectively in their other five victories. Yes, the Tide are just 3-3 ATS, but one of the non-covers came vs. A&M and in the other two ATS losses, they were favored by 40 points over Colorado State and by 54½ points over Georgia State, and they still won those games emphatically even without covering. Alabama ranks second in the country in scoring defense at 11.3 points per game and eighth in total defense at 278.2 yards per contest, and it would obviously be at or near the top in both categories if not for Johnny Football. The Tide have been fine offensively too averaging 38.8 points, and something in that neighborhood here should be good enough to cover the spread in a game where Arkansas may struggle to score 10 points.
Arkansas starting quarterback Brandon Allen missed a 28-24 loss at Rutgers on September 21st, which was the first loss of the year for the Razorbacks after a 3-0 start, but they then lost their last three games also with Allen playing through the injury, and very ineffectively at that, completing a horrible 47.2, 41.5 and 33.3 percent of his passes respectively, lowering his completion percentage for the season to 48.1 percent overall while passing for 864 yards on only 6.5 yards per attempt with a nondescript ratio of eight touchdown passes vs. five interceptions. He does not figure to improve vs. the outstanding Alabama defense should he continue to give it a go this week, a status that is up in the air as he is listed as questionable. His backup A.J, Derby has completed only 18-of-34 passes for 173 yards on a meager 5.1 yards per attempt, so regardless of who is under center, Alabama should have its way with the Arkansas offense.
Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 October games and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Arkansas is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing at least 450 total yards in its previous game.
LT Profits
Mississippi +9.5
While we have a lot of respect for the LSU Tigers, as they are improved offensively this season with quarterback Zach Mettenberger being unleashed after some conservative play-calling last year, we think they are overpriced here on the road vs. the Mississippi Rebels. While the offense is improved, the LSU defense is not quite up to snuff with recent seasons, especially against the run where they allow 152.6 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush. That is an area the balanced Mississippi offense can exploit as the Rebels are averaging 433.8 total yards per game with 175.8 of those yards coming on the ground on 4.6 yards per carry. Mississippi is also averaging 258.0 passing yards, so if quarterback Bo Wallace can complete some passes early, it would make the running game even more effective. Mississippi is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing at least 450 total yards in its previous game.
Detroit / Boston Over 7
The Detroit Tigers are starting Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer in Game 6 of the ALCS, but Clay Buchholz of the Boston Red Sox has not looked sharp in two post-season starts and that could be enough for an ‘over’ at this low total. Buchholz went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts during a season interrupted by three months on the Disabled List, but he has struggled in the playoffs, allowing eight earned runs on 15 hits in 11.2 innings. Also the Tigers are one team that has given Buchholz trouble, as he has allowed 14 earned runs in 17.2 innings in his last three starts against them. Scherzer is great but he does not have a Complete Game in his career and the Detroit bullpen blew a 5-1 lead for him in Game 2. The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in Scherzer’s last nine starts vs. the Red Sox.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN/B.C. Lions Under 51
Total is about two points less than it would be if this game were played in July. Wind, rain and cold are all commonplace at Mosaic Stadium in mid-October and you can be sure that at least two of those three variables (wind and cold) will be present tonight. There’s always a good chance of rain as well.
Furthermore, intensity levels increase this time of year and this one will have the feel of a playoff game, as the Green & White look to clinch a home playoff game with a win. The Riders defense has been outstanding over the past three weeks, allowing just over 14 points per game and will now face a Lions team that will play in the wind and cold for the first time this season. Both teams figure to run the ball exclusively when the wind is against them and eat up every second on the play clock because going into that win is a huge disadvantage. In fact, it’s near impossible to sustain a long drive into the wind. Very often in last month the of the regular season, you will see nothing but goose eggs for teams going into the wind and that makes this under wager an easy choice.
MLBPredictions
Tigers / Red Sox Under 7
The St Louis Cardinals won 9-0 last night in Game 6 of the NLCS to advance to the World Seires. Tonight we've got the Tigers and Red Sox in Game 6 of the ALCS as the Tigers hope to force a Game 7, while the Red Sox look to advance to the World Series with a win tonight. On the mound for Detroit we've got Max Scherzer who is 2-0 in the postseason with a 2.25 ERA. In this series he was given a no decision after going 7 innings allowing just 2 hits and 1 earned run with 13 strikeouts and 2 walks. Scherzer has been great all season on the road going 9-2 with a 2.28 ERA, .177 OBA and 0.92 WHIP during the regular season. Clay Buchholz will be on the mound for Boston and although he has had a rough go so far in the postseason I expect a good start from him. Over two starts he has a 6.17 ERA, but most of the damage came in two rough innings. In his start vs Detroit he had allowed just 1 run through the first 5 innings before giving up 4 runs in the 6th inning. The same thing happened in Tampa Bay when he was cruising until a three run homerun later in the game. I expect him to be on a shorter leash tonight, but with that said I don't expect him to come out early. During the regular season he was 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA, .208 OBA and 1.09 WHIP. With a chance to make it to the World Series on the line I expect Buchholz to have his best stuff tonight. The UNDER is 11-4-1 in the Tigers last 16 overall, 19-7 in their last 26 road games, and 6-1 in Scherzer's last 7 road starts. When these two teams met last we had the under, but Big Papi hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th inning to put it over the total. Tonight we will be enjoying a pitching performance between two great starting pitchers. I'm on the UNDER.