Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Scott Spreitzer

Alabama at Tennessee
Prediction: Alabama

The joint will be jumping in Knoxville on Saturday night, but by the end of the game, HC Dooley's hot seat will be even hotter, in my opinion. Tennessee's three step-up games against Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi State have not gone well. The Vols not only lost all three, while allowing 43 ppg, but they were heavily out-gained. The Vols averaged just 393 yards per game against those teams and gave up an average of 521.7! Tyler Bray, who Alabama didn't have to face last season, did not exactly light things up against those three SEC defenses. Bray completed just 59 of 111, or 53% of his passes, while tossing as many INTs (6) as TDs. Yes, Alabama QB A.J. McCarron has been practicing with a brace on his knee during the early portion of this week, but HC Nick Saban says he expects the Tide's signal caller to play on Saturday. Even if he's limited, I believe the Tide will be able to rely on their defense, which ranks first in the nation in total yards per game, passing yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. At the same time, the offense should be able to run their way to a wide margin win. Don't forget, Tennessee allowed Florida to run for 336 yards on 7.81 yards per carry. Alabama is on a 5-0 ATS run at this venue. Meanwhile, the Vols are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 SEC tilts and 1-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. I'm recommending a play on Alabama minus the points.

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San Diego St. at NevadaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State (4-2) enters this game coming off their 38-14 win against Colorado State -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Aztecs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Nevada (6-1) has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams from the Mountain West. Take the Under in this one.

Matt Fargo

BYU vs. Notre Dame
Play: BYU

Notre Dame enters this week coming off a very controversial win over Stanford last weekend in overtime but it was a solid come-from-behind victory that kept it undefeated. The Irish are ranked fifth in the initial BCS rankings as they are now 6-0 on the season and looking very strong across the board. This game is a tough one however as they are surely in for a letdown after that big win and with a game at Oklahoma next week, the lookahead is a strong possibility as well. BYU dropped to 4-3 following its home blowout loss against Oregon St. which is also undefeated, but the game was not as lopsided as that score indicates. The Cougars were outgained by only 64 total yards but three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown for the last score, did them in. their previous two losses were by a combined four points and those came on the road so they have fought very hard away from home. This is easily the biggest line BYU has seen all year. Notre Dame was able to cover against Miami in its last game when it was favored by double-digits but this game presents a much tougher challenge. Notre Dame has struggled on offense this season for the most part as it is 76th overall and 68th in scoring and it will have another challenge here. BYU is extremely tough on defense as it ranked fifth in total defense and seventh in scoring defense. Holding Boise St., Hawaii and Utah St. to 10 points combined over a three-game stretch is very impressive. The concern here is the BYU offense against the Notre Dame defense. The Irish have not allowed more than 17 points all season long as they are second in the country in scoring defense and 11th in total offense. The Cougars have struggled at times but they have also shown some very positive signs and the effort that Notre Dame has given over the last four games is going to be tough to keep going as if there was a time for a defensive letdown, this is it with the Sooners on deck. Playing tough defenses has hurt the Irish as they are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games against teams that are allowing 285 or fewer ypg and they have been outscored by over 11 ppg in those contests. To no surprise, Notre Dame has average just 16.6 ppg on offense. BYU meanwhile is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg in two straight games while going a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.

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Iowa State vs. Oklahoma StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Iowa StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma State's No. 1 ranked offense and strong revenge motive have pushed this line past the two-touchdown mark. But are the Cowboys really two touchdowns better than Iowa State? I don't believe so. The spunky Cyclones have the better defense and have covered their last five road games. They are 6-3 ATS as a road 'dog since last season, including beating Iowa and TCU straight-up as road 'dogs this year. Before getting hung up on revenge - Iowa State derailed Oklahoma State's title hopes with a 37-31 double overtime win last year - let's just see how good the Cowboys are. Oklahoma State just slipped past Kansas, 20-14, last week as 26 1/2-point road favorites. The Cowboys have failed to cover the last four times they've won straight-up. The Cowboys have fancy offensive numbers such as a nation-best 601.4 yards per game and scoring 48.6 points per game. But really how good of a team are they if they can barely defeat the Jayhawks? There was some weather-related issues that worked against Oklahoma State's high-octane offense, but it's not just that game. Oklahoma State lost 59-38 to Arizona. The Wildcats are 0-3 in the Pac-12 with a 49-0 loss to Oregon and a home loss to Oregon State. The Cowboys lost 41-36 at home to Texas, which just was slaughtered by Oklahoma, 63-21. So that loss looks worse now. These are signs that Oklahoma State is overrated. The Cowboys have put up their fancy numbers versus soft defenses. Iowa State is the most physical defense they will face. The Cyclones rank 34th in total defense despite facing three of the top 50 teams in total offense. I'm not totally convinced Oklahoma State is even better than Iowa State. Now, because of the revenge angle and fancy offensive numbers, the oddsmaker has made the blatant assumption that the Cowboys are two touchdowns better than a solid, below-the-radar Iowa State squad with a history of road point spread success. On top of this, early market activity has pushed the number past 14. I do put some stock in college revenge. But I also strongly consider value, too. The price of revenge has gotten way too high in this matchup.

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Georgia vs. KentuckyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bulldogs have given up a total of 79 points in their last two games alone. They suffered a devastating 35-7 loss at the hands of South Carolina before heading into last scheduled bye week. Those are some pretty big numbers for a team that always considers itself a good defensive team. Georgia has now played in two games where the betting total has gone over total line.
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It’s very likely the Bulldogs will be looking for a huge comeback game on the road where will be looking to shut down a Wildcats team that played them pretty hard last year.
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Last year’s game between Kentucky was a 19-10 low scoring game where the Wildcats played their hearts out to stay with the Bulldogs, while I don’t really see that happening this year, it should be noted that the Wildcats do have some pride going in.
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Kentucky has really struggled to score against the SEC, being held to an average of just 9.5 points in four conference games this year. The Wildcats have had to use four different quarterbacks due to injuries leading an average of just 215 yards passing in conference play.
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Kentucky is coming off blowout loss to Arkansas where they gave up 49 points. You can expect the Wildcats to make all efforts to keep the score down at home this week against a tough opponent.
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Georgia will be looking to get the run game going as they have to the 19th best rushing offense in the nation. Their two freshmen tailbacks in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall ranking amongst the best rushers in the SEC. Look for those two to get a lot of action in this road game.
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The Bulldogs go in this game with a chip on their shoulders looking to blood. You have to think the Wildcats are in tough, but will make it tough on team that they put a real scare in to last year.

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UNLV vs. Boise StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boise StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With five straight wins and back to back "covers," the Broncos have got their swagger back. Now, they catch a weak opponent in a difficult spot. It should result in a blowout.
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Off a tough loss against rival Nevada, UNLV figures to be a little flat. Listed as double-digit underdogs, the Rebels were up 17 points at halftime. However, the Wolfpack outscored them by a 28-6 margin in the second half, leaving UNLV on the short end of a 42-37 final.
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Having come that close to winning the "coveted Fremont Cannon," only to let the opportunity slip by, may have the Rebels thinking "what if."
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Of course, it doesn't much matter what they're thinking, when the Rebels are clearly outmatched on the field.
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Looking at last year's meeting and we find that the Broncos were favored by 43 points, at UNLV. Now, we're getting a significantly lower line, despite the fact that the Broncos are now playing at home.
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Note that UNLV is 1-13-2 ATS its last 16 road games, losing all 16 of them SU.
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Boise won by "only" 27 points last season. Playing at home and catching UNLV in a difficult spot, the Broncos should win by even more than that on Saturday. If you can get a line of 28 or less, consider laying the points. (Note: If line climbs above 28, I'd recommend passing.)

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Western Michigan vs. Kent State
Pick: Kent StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Michigan will travel to Dix Stadium Saturday to take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in this matchup.
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The Broncos are 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 0-3 SU on the road, 0-3 ATS on the road, 1-2 MAC, 5-5 ATS L10 and 1-4 ATS L5 road games.
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Kent State is 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home, 2-0 ATS at home, 3-0 MAC, 4-0 ATS L4, 8-2 ATS L10 and 5-0 ATS L5 home games.
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The Golden Flashes are currently available -3 at many sports books.
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The Broncos dropped a 30-24 OT decision Saturday at 4-3 Ball State. They are 0-3 on the road this season against teams with a combined record of 10-10 getting outscored 82-54. They are averaging 29.3 ppg on offense and 25.4 ppg on defense for a net +3.9. Backup QB Van Tubbergen struggled against the Ball State 107th ranked offense on Saturday throwing 16-31 for 202 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. He will be in for a much tougher time against Kent State and their 55th ranked defense on October 20th. Senior starting QB Alex Carder remains out indefinitely with a hand injury.
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The Golden Flashes are 2-0 at home this season against teams with a combined record of 7-6. They have won 4 straight games by a combined score of 140-81. They are averaging 32.5 ppg on offense and 24.8 ppg on defense for a net +7.7 ppg. RB Dri Archer went off Saturday vs. Army for 222 yards rushing on 12 carries. The all purpose back now has an awesome 13 TDs combined on the season. RB Travion Durham has 524 yards on the ground and 7 TDs on the year making the pair of RBs one of the top duo's in the country. The team is ranked 27th in the nation posting a massive 215.3 YPG on the ground.
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These two teams have met once at Dix Stadium in the past 3 years with Kent State easily winning SU and ATS 26-14. In their history, the Broncos have owned the Golden Flashes 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS however these two teams have only met twice in the past 6 years and haven't played each other since 2010.
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These two teams are going in the opposite directions right now, with Kent State a mere 3 point favorite at home, jump on the home team ATS!

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Northern Illinois vs. Akron
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We've seen shootout after shootout in the MAC this season, and this matchup gives us the opportunity to exploit another seemingly high, but realistically low total.
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Northern Illinois hasn't missed a beat offensively, despite losing do-it-all senior QB Chandler Harnish to graduation. Jordan Lynch has stepped in and played exceptional football, throwing 11 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions, while also rushing for a whopping 11 scores. The Huskies are an extremely well-balanced offensive team, averaging over eight yards per pass play and 6.5 yards per rush.
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It's highly unlikely that an Akron defense that's giving up six yards per play, and has already been torched for exactly 56 points on two different occasions this season, will be able to stand in the Huskies way on Saturday. Note that NIU has scored 76 points in two previous road games this season, and hasn't been held to less than 31 points in a true road game since scoring 28 points at Western Michigan way back in October of 2010.
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The good news for Akron is, it can trade points with anyone in the MAC. The Zips have developed a fairly explosing passing attack led by QB Dalton Williams, who is in his first year as a starter. He's already tossed 19 touchdowns compared to nine interceptions, compiling over 2,200 passing yards along the way.
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In three MAC contests, the Zips have scored 87 points, despite being held to only 10 points against Bowling Green two weeks ago. That poor showing at home against the Falcons should certainly have them focused and ready to come out firing on Saturday. Keep in mind, they went on the road and put up 28 points against a good Ohio team last Saturday - outgaining the Bobcats in terms of total yardage.
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This is a team that won't quit, even if it falls behind by a substantial margin, as we saw in last week's near comeback against the Bobcats. I'm not sure they'll ever fall farther tham arm's reach behind Northern Illinois on Saturday, however, as the Huskies haven't gone on the road and manhandled anyone defensively this season, allowing a combined 63 points in a pair of away games against Army and Ball State.
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The 'under' has gone a perfect 2-0 in each teams' last two contests, but that only serves to keep this total in a playable range. Expect the Huskies and Zips to air it out early and often in this game, leading to a typically wild, high-scoring MAC affair.

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Brigham Young vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Brigham Young
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The Cougars have played two ranked opponents this year, and they have lost both those games. Last week they were neck and neck with Oregon State, before suffering a fourth quarter collapse, allowing 21 points in the final frame.
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Previously they played the Boise State Broncos on the road, in an epic defensive battle that they would lose 7-6. The Cougars defense ranks 7th in the country allowing an average of just 13 points per game this year.
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Notre Dame is also very strong defensively, in fact they rank 2nd overall in the country behind the Alabama Crimson Tide, allowing an average of just 8.7 points per game.
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Neither team has been very impressive offensively, however the Cougars are ranked higher than the Irish in yards per game, as well as total points scored.
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Notre Dame has scored 20 points or less in three of their four home games this season, and this BYU defense is likely the strongest they have faced so far.
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They needed overtime to get past Stanford last week, despite being heavily favored to win that game.
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I don't see how anyone could pass on BYU as a double digit dog here.

Greg Shaker

Texas A&M +3.5

I am not going to bore you too much with this one. BIG RIVAL Game here and more so with CBB but the fact is, these two teams while not playing often, have fans that cross paths a lot. LSU just won a huge game, no doubt. But they are still offensively challenged and they proved at Florida that they can get rattled in a hostile environment. That is what this is going to be. A&M lost a little love with their close win at La Tech but this team continues to win and they certainly have done that well here at home. The only loss in fact was 3 points to Florida. Didn't Florida beat LSU? I thought so. LSU might think that after playing the Gators and Gamecocks, that this is going to be like a vacation. Not so I am afraid and I have the Aggies winning here outright by 2.2..

Johnny Detroit

New Mexico +11

Getting 11-points is a gift. So is 10.5 and 10. This line should only be around 7 and New Mexico is a VERY LIVE DOG on Saturday. Air Force in their win over Wyoming gave up 447 yards on offense, including 252 on the ground. The Lobos are ranked 7th in the nation piling up 280 yards per game on the ground. In their win over Hawaii last Saturday, they put up 452 yards, with 332 on the ground. Kasey Carrier ran for 161 and Cole Gautsche 100 as New Mexico has a very balanced ground game. Toss in Air Force rolled over New Mexico 42-0 last year, pretty sure a much improved Lobos squad has this game circled. Balanced running game from a motivated team equals an easy cover.

Dave Essler

Toledo +7

This is the Bearcats' FIRST road game, and it's of course a non-conference game. Clearly with a game at Louisville next week, Cincinnati cannot be expected to give a 100% effort for 60 minutes. Both teams should score plenty here, but there's no way this shouldn't be a last possession game. Cincinnati does have a top-rated, statistically, defense. However, they haven't played an actual offense yet other than perhaps Virginia Tech, and that's questionable at best, at least to date. Toledo beat a Pac-12 team (Arizona) on the road this season, so at home, catching a touchdown, I've got every reason they can win this game straight up, although for our purposes they don't have to.

Bobby Conn

Michigan State vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan State

I'll take the points with the Spartans today. It hasn't been a good year so far for Michigan State and last week's loss at home to Iowa had to really hurt. Michigan on the other hand is rolling, but the Wolverines have struggled against their in-state rivals. I think this one stays close and Michigan pulls out a close win. I'll take the points.

Brad Diamond

Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Play: Nebraska

The ‘Cats are 6-1 SU & ATS and now face Nebraska in Evanston. The visiting Cornhuskers lineup on Saturday 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS after being mauled by Ohio St. 63-38. In the preseason we had Northwestern in the bottom half of the Leaders Division of the Big-10, considering they enlisted just 11 returning starting starters. NW has defeated one winning FBS team this season Minnesota last week. Nebraska as most experts indicated would be the #1 choice to win the Legends Division in the Big-10. However, the Nebraska defense has faltered this season against the upper level units. HC Bo Pelini brought back 7 defensive starters that relinquished only 23.4 points per game in 2011. Against quality offenses like UCLA, Wisconsin and Ohio State, the ‘Huskers stop troops scoring defense has allowed on average 42 points per game this season. Ohio State gashed the Nebraska front for almost 400 yards on the ground. This equates to TOP, drive definition and scores, obviously!

NW showed some leakage on Saturday in their 21-13 win over Minnesota. The Golden Gophers had a 21-13 first down advantage, while the ‘Cats compiled only 67 yards throwing the football. The MAJOR EDGES inside this encounter is REVENGE for Nebraska from last years’ 28-25 loss to NW in Norman, a game that broke the hearts of many Nebraska followers. After, the school ended up going to the Capital One Bowl where they were waxed 30-13 by SEC South Carolina! In addition, a key here is a week of rest, something Pelini can only hope will stoke the fires within his defense that exhibits problems stopping running quarterbacks. We heard talk over the weekend that “5” linebackers could be on the field against Northwestern. Technically, this scenario fits Nebraska very nicely thank you at 7-1 ATS as road chalk laying under 7 and 6-1 ATS in road tests off a bye. This would be a huge win for coach Fitzgerald (46-37) of NW who runs a quality program. However, NEXT WEEK the ‘Cats have HOMECOMING and a REVENGE GAME versus hated Iowa. The ‘Cats are 0-5 ATS B/4 Iowa. In Las Vegas Northwestern will be a public UNDERDOG as soon as the windows open.