WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho at Louisiana TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Louisiana Tech -30.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you put an SEC team name on the home jerseys in this one, with the same stats for both of these teams, you'd be looking at a 5+ TD spread. But instead, the name reads Lousiana Tech. Many thought that the unbeaten Ragin’ Cajuns were somewhat of an illusion at 5-0 before last week's game vs. Texas A&M. When they trailed in the game 39-13, it certainly looked as if those sentiments were on the money. They then came roaring back and were a 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime. This is a legitimate offensive powerhouse, and a team that has reached 52 points in five of their six games, and 44 points in their other game. They put up 57 points and 615 yards on a legit defense. Geno Smith is not the only perfect QB this season, as Tech's Colby Cameron has passed for 1,897 yards for 18 TDs and 0 INTs. If that hasn't been good enough, the Cajuns have run for 22 more TDs. The Vandals are in big trouble here, as they have allowed 167 points in their last three road games, scoring just 21 points. To put things in perspective, the Vandals’ 21 points in their last three road games is going against an LA tech team that has scored 21 or more in a single quarter in all but one game - in that one they scored 20. Enough said. My computer matchup predicts a huge LA Tech win here. I agree. Take the Cajuns!
Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan St. at MichiganFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Michigan St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A big game in the Big 10 finds the sputtering Spartans riding a five-game ATS losing skein. But they have beaten the Wolves each of the last four seasons and are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in this series behind HC Mark Dantonio. And if you're thinking revenge, forget about it as the Maize-and-Blue are a head-turning 0-15-1 ATS with conference revenge. They are also 2-9 ATS as conference home favorites of 10 or less points and that doesn?t bode well against a Sparty bunch that is a surprising 5-0 ATS before waltzing with Wisconsin and 4-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games. Even with their alarming lack of success when looking to avenge a conference loss, we still considered backing the Wolverines as their only losses to date are against Top Five competition (Alabama and Notre Dame). However, HC Brady Hoke?s personal 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark with revenge versus a foe off a SU favorite loss is just too much to overcome. Sparty again. We recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan State.
Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A couple things here that are different form years past. First of all these teams are separated by just 8 miles and this is a major rivalry more so in basketball but in football Duke still takes this game seriously while North Carolina sees their rival more as NC State who they actually play next week. Also this game is usually played during thanksgiving break and lacks a home field advantage. Well this game will be featured while school is in session but also it will be a rare night game.
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Despite the way they finished last week Duke has played extremely well and even led 20-7 against Virginia Tech, but they could not over come -3 turnover margin. North Carolina on the other hand looked really bad against a bad Miami team whose only strength is passing the ball. Well Duke can pass the ball and should be able to take advantage of North Carolina's poor pass defense in this game and they do just about everything else better than Miami which almost won 18-14 last week. Duke has shown inconsistencies against the run that they need to get back to this week if they want a chance to win. I think being back at home in a rare night game against their rival should be good enough motivation to stop the run. After all they did hold Stanford's rushing attack in check once upon a time ago.
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NC State -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time NC State stepped on the field they upset then No. 3 Florida State at home 17-16. There are going to be a lot of people who jump on Maryland in this game expecting the Wolfpack to suffer a major letdown after that huge win. I don't think that will be the case at all. NC State is coming off a bye week and I can assure you Tom O'Brien has repeatedly reminded his players that they still have a lot to prove.
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Even though I'm not huge on Maryland this season, we are getting some decent value on NC State because the Terrapins come in leading the ACC Atlantic at 2-0. However, if you look close enough you know this team is overrated. Their two conference wins came against Wake Forest and Virginia, who are a combined 1-6 in conference play. This is also the same Maryland team that lost at home to a below-average Connecticut team earlier this season.
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The Wolfpack feature an explosive offense that can beat you with both the run and the pass. Just a couple games ago they put up 664 yards of total offense on the road at Miami. While they ended up losing that game by a touchdown, they would have won had they not turned the ball over six times.
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Maryland is okay on defense, but the key is they won't be able to keep up offensively in this one. The Terrapins are extremely one-dimensional. They are 118th in the country in rushing, averaging just 71.3 ypg. That is down right pathetic. They aren't much better throwing the ball, as they rank 95th in passing offense at 196.2 ypg.
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Even if the Terrapins defense is able to hold NC State's offense in check, I still think they come away from this game with at least 24 points. It might not seem like much, but it's enough to cover this small spread.
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Michigan St +9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Michigan State Spartans are simply catching too many points Saturday against the Michigan Wolverines. MSU is undervalued at this point of the season due to suffering three losses already, but those three setbacks have come against teams with a combined 17-2 record.
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Their losses came against Notre Dame (6-0), Ohio State (7-0) and Iowa (4-2). Their last two against the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes came by a combined four points. This team is much better than its 4-3 record, but it isn't getting treated like it by oddsmakers heading into this showdown with the Wolverines.
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Michigan State is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Michigan. The Spartans simply have the Wolverines' number, winning three of those four meetings by 14 points or more. This is a great match-up for MSU because of its ability to stop the run.
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The Spartans have one of the best stop units in the country as they rank 7th in total defense (270.1 yards/game), including 8th against the run (92.7 yards/game). Michigan's biggest strength is its 16th-ranked rushing offense (232.5 yards/game) behind Denard Robinson.
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MSU bottled up Robinson in last season's 28-14 victory. It held him to 9 of 24 passing for 123 yards wth one touchdown and one interception. Most impressively, it limited Robinson to just 42 rushing yards on 18 carries. With eight starters back on defense, the Spartans certainly have the formula to contain Robinson once again in 2012.
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The Spartans are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 conference games. Michigan is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska Cornhuskers -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As if getting its tail kicked 63-38 at Ohio State isn't enough motivation, Nebraska will be further fueled by last season's 28-25 home loss to Northwestern. Having had an extra week to prepare, there's no doubt the Huskers will be ready to exact revenge on the Wildcats.
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Northwestern is 6-1, but forgive me if I'm not sold. It only has one victory this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In fact, five of its wins have come against teams that are currently 2-4 or worse.
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Consider that Northwestern is just 4-12 ATS in home games when matched up against a team with a winning record under coach Pat Fitzgerald. It has lost by an average score of 33.5 to 22.9 in this situation.
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The Nebraska offense has been awesome. It is averaging 43.7 points on 507.3 yards per game and should have little trouble moving the football on a Northwestern stop unit that ranks 56th in the country in total defense.
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Nebraska's issue, at times, has been its defense, but I'm expecting its best defensive performance of the season to date in this highly motivated spot and following a bye week. The numbers are certainly in our favor as the Huskers are a perfect 7-0 ATS under coach Bo Pelini after giving up 17 points or more in the first half in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 37.6 to 19.6 in this situation. Lay the points.
Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke has fielded what I believe is their best team in a long time, and are not easily manhandled by any opponent, including what my own power rankings suggest is a good but greatly over rated North Carolina side with a new coaching staff. Duke has played North Carolina tough in the recent past as five of the last eight games have been decided by eight points or less. Final notes & Key Trends: Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State Spartans +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spartans are being undervalued here against against a Michigan team with no impressive wins. Michigan State's win over Boise State and one-point loss to Ohio State are more impressive than anything the Wolverines have done this season. The Spartans have won 4 in a row against their in-state rivals. All 4 wins have come by at least 6 points and 3 of them have come by a minimum of 14 points. The Wolverines would like nothing more than to end this skid, but it won't be easy because Michigan State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. It ranks 7th in total defense, giving up just 270.1 yards per game. It also ranks 13th in scoring defense, allowing only 15.7 points per game. Michigan's bread and butter is its running game but stopping the run is what the Spartans do best. They rank 8th in the nation against the run with 91.3 yards allowed per game. The Spartans will get enough stops to keep this one within the generous number.
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BYU +14FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After improving to 6-0 with a 20-13 overtime victory over rival Stanford last week, this is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have a road game at Oklahoma on deck, so this is certainly a trap game for them. The Cougars are 4-3 this season, but two of their losses have come by a combined four points, so this team is certainly better than its record. BYU has the type of defense that will keep it competitive Saturday for four quarters. The Cougars rank 5th in the country in total defense (260.9 YPG), including 3rd against the run (67.9 YPG). Notre Dame hasn't been able to throw the ball with any kind of consistency this season as it is just 86th in passing offense (206.5 YPG). This is not a very good matchup for the Irish at all, and having to win by two touchdowns is simply asking two much in what will be a defensive battle similar to the Stanford game. BYU is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Notre Dame is 5-20 ATS versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Take BYU and the points.
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Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Play: Kansas StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS while WV is 5-1 SU and 2-4 against the number. The Wildcats are alone in 1st place in the BIG 12 while the Mountaineers were exposed LW in their 49-14 beat down at the hands of the Red Raiders. With a strong showing here, K State QB, Collin Klein will be in the Heisman hunt along with West Virginia's Geno Smith. Klein has a 66.9% CR, 1074 YP and another 510 YR, accounting for 17 scores. I give State a big edge on the ground here, which means they keep Smith and his offense off the field by controlling the clock. On defense, the Mountaineers have allowed 157 points in their 3 BIG 12 contests. The Wildcats are more physical and will take note of how Texas Tech held the WV offense to just 14 pts LW. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS their L5 Conference games, 1-4 ATS their L5 games played at home, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played vs. teams with a winning record. The Wildcats are 19-6-1 ATS their L26 Conference games, 6-1-1 ATS their L8 games played on the road, and 5-2-1 ATS their L8 games played against teams with a winning record.
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Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Expect no letdown from Iowa following last week's double-overtime win at Michigan State. The Hawkeyes have had Penn State's number, and they'll be hungry to avenge last season's loss in Happy Valley. Iowa has won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Penn State, including 4 in a row at home. One thing the numbers tell us is that you don't have to be scared of Iowa in the small chalk at home. That's because it is on a 13-4 ATS run as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning by an average of 13.6 points in this spot. RB Mark Weisman could miss the game, but I still like Iowa laying this small number because of how strong it has been defensively. The Hawkeyes rank 20th in the nation in both total and scoring defense, giving up 317.2 yards and 17.2 points per game. The stop unit gets better and better each week. Penn State has yet to see a defense as talented and as physical as Iowa's this season, and it will show. Lay the points as Iowa continues its dominance of the Nittany Lions.
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Stanford vs California
Pick: CaliforniaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford has a Top 25 ranking, but this team is winless on the road...and this is no ordinary game, a rivalry Pac 12 contest. The Cardinal is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and they come off a heart breaking loss at Notre Dame on the final play. In fact, they are off consecutive overtime games, a wild 54-48 game against Arizona, and now a crushing loss at Notre Dame. This Cal team has won 2 in a row and the offense has been smoking under QB Zach Maynard, scoring 43 and 31 the last two games. The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. And in this rivalry game the Cardinal is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Play Cal!
Tony George
Virginia Tech +8.5
Frank Beamer and Beamer Ball in serious trouble of going 4-4 on the season with a loss here. Clemson beat the daylights out of VT last year twice, once in the ACC Championship, and VT has had this one circled all all year. I am not laying 8.5 points with Clemson when they are allowing 37 ppg on defense against ACC opponents YTD. With QB Logan playing better, and the Hokies back against the wall, I am taking the points here as VT will pull out all the stops here to win this. I expect a supreme effort and while Clemson's offense is prolific, I expect Bud Foster to throw everything including the kitchen sink at them here. VT makes a stand, grab the generous points here.
Larry Ness
South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: Florida
The Ol’ Ball Coach heads back to “The Swamp” on Saturday afternoon, as his 9th-ranked Gamecocks take on the 3rd-ranked Gators (No. 2 in the 1st BCS standings!). The game comes a week after South Carolina saw its perfect 2012 season end in LSU’s version of “Death Valley,” last Saturday night (also ended South Carolina’s school-record 10-game winning streak). The Gamecocks were 6-0 after a 35-7 win over Georgia on Oct 6 but were dominated by LSU last Saturday, despite a 23-21 final. South Carolina’s first two TDs were set up by a long INT return and a long punt return plus its final score was of the ‘backdoor’ variety, coming with 1:41 left. Florida is 5-0 in the SEC East and South Carolina 4-1. The winner is in great shape to represent the East in the SEC championship game. South Carolina has just one SEC championship game appearance (got CRUSHED 56-17 by Auburn in 2010), while Florida has made the most SEC championship appearances (10) but hasn't played for the title since Tim Tebow and the then No. 1 Gators were upended 32-13 by No. 2 Alabama three years ago. Florida (6-0) is off to its best start since that team opened 12-0, and it’s quite an improvement over Will Muschamp's first season (Gators were just 7-6 in 2011). The Gators rank 6th in the nation in points allowed (12.3 PPG) and 13th in yards allowed (297.2 YPG) with its defense really shining in the second half. Florida has outscored its opponents 98-23 in the second half this season! South Carolina has won TWO straight over Florida with its 2010 win at Gainesville ending an 0-12 losing streak in “The Swamp.” The Gamecocks will NOT make it three straight wins over the Gators. Lay the small spot with Florida.
Steve Merril
Louisiana State vs. Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M
Texas A&M blew a big lead and barely held on for a 59-57 win versus Louisiana Tech last week. Normally, that might leave a team flat, but Texas A&M should remain focused this week at home against a Top 10 opponent like LSU. Most of the offensive damage last week was done by Louisiana Tech's passing attack (450 yards) as Texas A&M allowed just 3.9 yards per rush on the ground. Overall this season, the Aggies are permitting just 3.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 4.3 ypr), so Texas A&M's strong rush defense matches up well against LSU's run-based offense that rushes the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this season. LSU lacks a consistent passing attack and is the reason why they have struggled on the road this season, going 0-2 ATS. In fact, LSU has thrown for 169 yards or less in three of their past four games, going 0-4 ATS overall during that span.