Rocketman
Colorado at Southern
Play: Southern Cal -40
The Colorado Buffaloes travel to take on the Southern Cal Trojans on Saturday. Colorado is 1-5 SU overall this year while Southern Cal comes in with a 5-1 overall record on the season. Colorado is allowing 494.2 yards per game overall this year and I expect Southern Cal to get every bit of that and then some. Colorado is allowing 41.3 points per game overall this year and 41.7 points per game on the road this season. Southern Cal is scoring 32.3 points per game overall this year and 38 points per game at home this season. Southern Cal is allowing only 9.5 points per game at home this season. Colorado is 2-12 ATS last 3 years on the road. Colorado is 1-10 ATS last 11 games on grass. Colorado is 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games after a SU loss of 20 points or more. Colorado is 8-21 ATS last 29 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. Matt Barkley and Southern Cal will blow out Colorado here in this one. We'll recommend a small play on Southern Cal tonight!
Rob Vinciletti
Army vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan fits a nice system that plays on winless home dogs at this juncture of the season. We also want to play against an Army team that is 1-8 to the spread as a road favorite and 2-7 vs MAC teams. The Cadets have played 2 road games and allowed 40+ plus in both games. Eastern Michigan has covered 4 of the last 5 as a home dog of 3 or less. They are off back to back home losses and finally woke up offensively last week. Look for Eastern Michigan to get the cash on Saturday.
Dave Cokin
Kansas State vs West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia
Kansas State gets more out of its talent than any team in the country. But this is still a very difficult trip into an ultra-hostile environment and the Mountaineers are off an utter humiliation. I'll have to back West Virginia to drop the Wildcats from the ranks of the unbeaten.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS A&M +3½ -105 over LSU
LSU has played two road games this season. At Auburn on Sept 22 they won 12-10. Two weeks ago at Florida, they lost 14-6. Last week, hosting South Carolina, they won 23-21. The Tigers will now play its third straight contest against a quality opponent and that takes a toll. The real kicker here is that they will host #1 Alabama next week and that figures to take quite a bit of focus off this one. In terms of situational betting, it doesn’t get much better than this for the Aggies.
QB Johnny Manziel and the Aggies have exactly the kind of offense that can capitalize on a defense that has to be a little gassed after back-to-back intense games. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M has a nothing game on deck next week, meaning all their focus is on the visiting Tigers. LSU doesn’t blow out quality teams. They are a methodical, low scoring club that plays field position and relies on the opposition to make mistakes. At its best, LSU can’t be trusted laying 3½ road points. With the Crimson Tide on deck next week in the biggest game of the year, the Tigers are more likely to be off their game than the Aggies.
Indiana +123 over NAVY
The Hoosiers won their opening two games but have dropped four in a row to drop to 2-4 on the season. On paper that record doesn’t look so good but a close look reveals four losses in a row to four very good football teams in Ball State, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State. Three of those four losses were by four points or less.
Indiana's offense has taken flight in Kevin Wilson's second season, scoring 76 points the past two weeks against the Spartans and Buckeyes. Indiana is on the right track. They are much more battle tested than the Midshipmen and they appear to be incredibly well prepared each and every week. Against Ohio State they were a 19-point pooch and against Michigan State they were getting 15 points. They could have won both. The Hoosiers are hungry for a win and take a huge step down in class here.
By comparison, Navy was a 14½-point dog against Notre Dame on a neutral field and lost 50-10. They also lost at Penn State 34-7 and didn’t score a single point in a 12-0 loss to San Jose State. One of Navy’s three wins came against Virginia Military Institute. Now we get to take back a tag with the far superior team coming off four losses? Pencil us in.
TOLEDO +193 over Cincinnati
This is an angle we always look out for in that the Bearcats crossed the threshold this week and moved into the National rankings for the first time at #21. With that comes some extra accolades, more recognition and most importantly of all, an inflated price. The Bearcats 5-0 record comes after playing four cupcakes and a completely disorganized Pitt team in the season opener. They barely got by a weak Virginia Tech team and last week against FCS opponent Fordham, they were given a bit of a scare with a small lead for the entire first half before breaking it open in the second half. Against Delaware State, the Bearcats scored three points in the second half and won 23-7.
The Rockets lost all-purpose superstar Eric Page to graduation but are still explosive behind triplets Terrance Owens, Bernard Reedy and David Fluellen. This is a high-powered attack that will hit some long gainers on an aggressive Cincinnati defense susceptible to the big play. Toledo has had some big-time performances in the past and logged near-misses against Ohio State last season and Arizona in OT in this year's opener. The Glass Bowl is a tough place to play, especially at night, and this is Cincinnati's first true road game of the season.
It wouldn't surprise us to see Cincinnati struggle to handle its success. The Bearcats have a big game with Louisville on deck, they don’t deserve this billing, as they have really not proved anything yet other than they can beat some third-tier college football teams. Rockets outright.
Joe Gavazzi
Texas A&M +3.5
This is a very tough situation for an LSU team who just blew a halftime lead at Florida 2 weeks ago before holding off South Carolina last week (23-21). After facing those ground oriented teams, they must now face the best spread offense they will encounter all season. Yes, this price has dropped significantly because of a net-129 AFP favoring LSU. I don't believe it's enough. QB Mettenberger has yet to emerge in a way that can provide offensive balance for the Tigers. Should they fall behind it would be a huge task to catch up. That could well happen against an underrated Aggies rush defense that allows 125/3.3. It's the ideal remedy to slow the Tiger ground game. When last we left our top rated play on the Aggies, they were blowing a 34-7 lead vs. La Tech when their thoughts began to turn to this matchup. The ensuing win (no cover) was costly last week, but at least maintains home dog value for this. No doubt, "Johnny Football" will find the going a bit harder than against any foe he has faced this year since the Aggies opening week loss on this field 20-17 to Florida. The Aggies offense with a combination of HC Sumlin/QB Manziel has grown by leaps and bounds since that 1st game. Not really a surprise to this bureau if LSU is exposed when being unable to play from behind against a team with a good run defense and balanced explosive offense. Many Aggie players still remember the 2010 Bowl loss to LSU. It's REVENGE TIME.
Andy Iskoe
TCU +1.5
These former members of the old Southwest Conference have been reunited in the Big 12 as TCU is now a member along with West Virginia, the team that Texas Tech just routed at home last week 49-14, ending WVU's unbeaten season. It was a nice win for Tech that followed their lone defeat of the season when they were routed at home by Oklahoma a week earlier. TCU also rebounded from its lone loss a week earlier to Iowa State with a most impressive rout on the road at Baylor. Though not at the level of the past few seasons, TCU is still strong on defense. Tech actually has the better defensive stats but those were largely accumulated against 3 very weak teams to start the season. Clearly Tech is improved but it may be a bit early to favor them on the road against a team that's been as consistently successful and well coached as has TCU. The Horned Frogs are 41-4SU at home since 2005 and are a home underdog for the first time in this time frame. Their home loss to Iowa State 2 weeks ago came amid unusual circumstances as their starting QB was suspended 48 hours before the game. TCU pulls the mild upset.
Charlie Scott
Baylor vs. Texas
Play: Under 79.5
High total which is down from 80, but will probably go back up. Texas's defense has highly recruited athletes, but has struggled the last couple of weeks. With Texas starting QB out and McCoy in look for Texas to run the ball and throw short intermediate passes and try to use game clock to keep Baylor's offense off the Field. PLAY UNDER betting Over any Total in the 80's is for squares !
Chuck O'Brien
It's Homecoming Weekend in Kent, Ohio, and the Golden Flashes are going to be all riled up for Western Michigan's visit. And with all that rile, should be plenty of confidence, as the Golden Flashes have won seven straight games against teams currently in the Mid American Conference. And dating back to Oct. 29, 2011, Kent State has won nine of its last 11 games overall.
And it's hard to ignore how well this offense is clicking, as the Flashes have totaled 604 rushing yards over their last two games. The Flashes have surpassed 400 yards of total offense four times, a feat only reached once last year. And talk about protecting the football, Kent State did not turn the ball over last week at Army and raised its season turnover margin to plus-10.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are coming in off a tough overtime loss at Ball State after blowing out UMass 52-14. And while I know the Bronco passing offense ranks 39th in the nation, averaging 263.7 yards per game, and WMU ranks second in the MAC in total defense, allowing 369 yards per game, but I don't think it can match offensive wits with Kent State in this one. Especially since the Bronos are 0-3 on the road this season.
Since the beginning of the 2010 season, Kent State has gone 10-4 at home. It's in on additional ATS runs of 5-0 at home, 9-0 on turf, 4-1 versus losing teams, 7-1 in conference play, 6-2 in the month of October. and 4-0 overall. On the other hand, we have a Western Michigan team that is in on ATS slides of 1-4 in the month of October, 3-10 when visiting teams with a winning home mark and 0-4 on the road.
Lay the points with Kent State, and be sure you're laying ONLY a field goal. I know there are a majority of 3-1/2s out there, so be sure you buy the half point down and lay only -3 points with the Golden Flashes.
5♦ KENT STATE
Matt Rivers
38-23 free play run heading into Saturday's action.
Free play winner for Saturday is the Georgia Bulldogs as the heavy chalk in Lexington this afternoon versus the door-mat Wildcats.
Kentucky is just one bad team this season - only lightning could prevent them from taking another spread loss last week versus Arkansas! The Wildcats are now on a five game losing streak, and are 1-6 straight up this year while failing to cover in any of their lined losses.
Georgia has had an extra week to stew over their 35-7 trouncing at South Carolina, and they do have their annual "Cocktail Party" game with Florida up next, but I expect Aaron Murray and his cast of receivers to have a huge day against the injury-riddled Wildcats secondary.
UGa has covered five of their last seven when listed as the away favorite, while UK is only 6-14-1 against the line their last 21 home conference dates.
Forget the fact the Bulldogs have failed four of the last five in this series against the number, this one has blowout written all over it.
Georgia to name it here!
4♦ GEORGIA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Colorado Buffaloes plus a million points in Los Angeles against the underachieving Trojans of Southern Cal.
Lane Kiffin? How about more like "LAME" Kiffin, as USC is a money-burning 1-5 against the spread this season. The Trojans five wins have come against teams that are collectively 4-16.
USC ranks dead last in all of college football in penalties,105th in tackles for loss allowed, and 116th in third down conversion percentage. Nice job Lane!!!!....with all that talent???
While it is true that Colorado has been god-awful, I still feel the price on this game is way out of line. Laying 40 or 41 points is more like a Pete Carroll spread than a Lame Kiffin spread.
Calling for the Buffs will grind out 2 touchdowns as the Trojans get lazy towards the end of the game and fail to cover this monster impost. Call it USC 52-14 over Colorado.
1♦ COLORADO
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Ohio State Buckeyes over Purdue.
On November 12 last year in West Lafayette, Indiana, Ohio State thought it had scored the game-winning touchdown. Jordan Hall caught a 13-yard touchdown pass from Braxton Miller with 55 seconds remaining in the game. All OSU needed was a Drew Basil conversion kick.
It didn't happen.
You see... Purdue's Bruce Gaston blocked the extra-point try, leaving the game tied at 20 and eventually sending it to overtime. Big mistake for Ohio State... big mistake.
The Buckeyes got a 33-yard field goal from Basil for a 23-20 lead in the first possession of OT, but Purdue's Robert Marve scored on a 1-yard run on the Boilers' overtime possession to snag the win. It was a gut-wrenching experience for the Bucks and one that they surely haven't forgotten.
Revenge and redemption are clearly on their minds today.
After wins over Michigan State and Nebraska, the Buckeyes (7-0) are 2-0 this season against teams that defeated them last season as part of an uncharacteristic 6-7 season under Luke Fickell.
What's different this year? Urban Meyer. Is OSU the most talented team in the country? Of course not... but they have athletes and have bought into Meyer's system --- and it's working like a charm.
Purdue, winning last season, would make it three redemption wins in a row for the Buckeyes, when they win.
The one good thing about backing Ohio State is that you don't have to worry about Tressel ball. If Urban Meyer has a chance to score with 55 seconds left and you need 5 points for a cover, you should still like your chances. That's how much he wants to push these kids.
That fact alone would sell me.
Folks, this game won't be close. Take OSU as your free play of the day.
3♦ OHIO STATE
Scott Delaney
Taking a look at Saturday's free winner, I like the Oregon State Beavers minus the points versus the Utah Utes. Ranked eighth in the nation, I'm a little baffled at how low this number is, to be quite honest, as I see the Ducks being able to win this game by at least two touchdowns - if not three or four.
I know Utah has won four of the last five meetings, but this is the first time Utah has been in Corvallis since the 2007 season. And the Utes are likely in store for a raucous occasion and hostile crowd, as it's Homecoming for the Beavers.
Oregon State (5-0, 3-0 in Pac-12) is one of 12 Football Bowl Subdivision teams that remains undefeated, and I don't really think Utah (2-4, 0-3) is a threat to the Beavers, who would become bowl eligible with a win in this game.
The Beavers have one of the fiercest defensive units in the nation, ranking 45th in the nation overall. And while that may seem average, they enter the week fourth in the nation and first in the Pac-12 for rush defense, allowing 70 yards per game. Only Alabama (55.3 yds), Rutgers (60.8) and BYU (67.9) rank higher in the country.
That's going to spell trouble for one of the most lethargic offenses in the nation. Utah has the 114th-ranked offense out of 124 teams ranked in Football Bowl Subdivision. And the Utes - on the road for the second straight week and third time in four games - have lost three in a row.
And if and when they try to goto the air, the Utes will run into lockdown cornerbacks Jordan Poyer and Rashaad Reynolds, who are like glue in man-to-man coverage. They rank among the national leaders for passes defended (breakups and interceptions). Reynolds is tied for third in the nation, averaging two passes defended per game, while Poyer is ninth at 1.8.
On offense, the Beavers will be led by fourth-year senior Markus Wheaton and sophomore Brandin Cooks - of the most dangerous receiving duos in the nation. Cooks is second in the nation with 131.8 yards receiving per contest while Wheaton is 10th at 112.8 - only West Virginia can match the Beavers with two players in the top 10. Also, Cooks has 354 yards following his receptions or an average of nearly 71 yards per game, while Wheaton has 145 yards, an average of 29 yards per contest.
This is a complete mismatch guys. I want you playing the Beavers on Saturday night against Utah.
4♦ OREGON STATE
Chris Jordan
My complimentary winner for you is going to be the Northwestern Wildcats (6-1 SU/ATS) plus the points at home against the visiting the Nebraska Cornuskers (4-2/3-3) on Saturday.
Hey, I don't care what anyone says, a good nap never hurts anyone.
Apparently coach Pat Fitzgerald agrees, cause not only are his Wildcats breaking out their all-black uniforms, they'll also have a mandatory lights-out sleep session prior to taking the field at 12:30 p.m. Vegas time.
Apparently after seeing how sluggish his team came out for an even earlier start on Sept. 15 against Boston College, which led 10-9 in the second quarter, he realized the bump in kick time for that game affected his team's "snooze time."
Hey, who am I to argue, right?
Looking to gain the upper hand in the Big Ten Legends Division, this figures to be an epic clash in front of a sold-out Ryan Field Saturday. The Huskers are making their first appearance in Ryan Field in 82 years, having last visited Evanston for the 1931 season-opener. Roughly 30,000 Cornhuskers fans reportedly flocked to Madison, Wis., last year for Nebraska's first Big Ten game, so game officials are expecting an infusion of red in the visitors' side of the stadium.
I, personally, am expecting an infusion of energy from the Wildcats - a rested-Wildcats team I might add - as they enter play this week as the only Big Ten team to already have become bowl-eligible after earning their sixth win of the season at Minnesota last Saturday. The Wildcats are 10-2 in their last 12 regular season games dating to Oct. 29, 2011.
We're backing the Big Ten's No. 2 rush defense against a Huskers rushing attack that averages a Big Ten-best 292.0 ground yards per game. Conversely speaking, Nebraska's 91st nationally ranked rushing defense will be forced to contend with an NU ground game that ranks 18th nationally with 229.9 yards per contest.
I know the Huskers are in off a bye, but Northwestern has gone 2-0 in its first two games against Big Ten teams coming off an open date. And I might add, Nebraska might have had a better team last season, and the Wildcats went into Lincoln on Nov. 4, 2011 and pulled out a 28-25 win as a 17'-point underdog.
The Huskers roll into Evanston, IL on ATS losing skids of 1-5 in Big 10 play, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-5 on the highway. On the flipside, Northwestern rolls into this huge game on ATS win streaks of 4-0 at home, 4-1 after SU and ATS victories and 6-1 overall.
My early free pick for Saturday, the Northwestern Wildcats.
Now it's nap time.
2♦ NORTHWESTERN
My second free winner for Saturday is going to be the Duke Blue Devils plus the points at home against the North Carolina Tar Heels, in a crucial Atlantic Coast Conference clash.
Honestly, I have no clue what the oddsmakers are thinking in this game, the annual battle for the Victory Bell. The Blue Devils are 5-2 overall with a 2-1 mark in ACC play after losing to Virgina Tech, 41-20, last weekend. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are 5-2 overall and 2-1 in league play after winning at Miami, 18-14.
Duke’s 5-1 start matches the third-best six-game opening to a season since the inception of the ACC in 1953, and with just one more win Duke will make its first bowl appearance since 1995.
And though I realize the Tar Heels have won eight straight, and 21 of the past 22 meetings, including last year’s 37-21 decision in Chapel Hill, this year's game at Wallace Wade Stadium figures to be huge.
North Carolina is ineligible for postseason football play this year due to NCAA violations, so I'm sure the Tar Heels are making this a bowl game in itself since it's its No. 1 rival. But the Devils are no slouch.
Truth be said, this is probably the best team Duke’s fielded since the ol' ball coach was roaming the sidelines. Steve Spurrier won the league back in 1989, and the Devils look every bit the part of another ACC title team. There are a lot of seniors, and a lot of returners that have been with this program the entire time during a rebuilding process and this would mark a huge win for the program.
If you haven't had a chance to watch the Devils play, you must to know just how in sync each unit seems to be. And what's different about this year's team, than in years past, is it truly believes it is going to win. That’s a credit to the coaching staff because head coach David Cutcliffe has everyone believing.
Again, one win away from going to a bowl game, and the Devils can get it done with a win over their arch-rivals.
Duke has outscored its opponents 247-192 this season and turns to the passing game behind a two-quarterback system (redshirt senior Sean Renfree and redshirt sophomore Anthony Boone). The Blue Devils have thrown for more 2,000 yards compared to just 778 rushing yards, and with the crowd fired up this week, you better believe the aerial attack is what's going to keep them inside this ludicrous number.
Take the 10-1/2 with the Devils.
3♦ DUKE
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
OHIO STATE -17.5 over Purdue: Allot of talk in the early part of the season was about how good the defense was of the Boilermakers, especially their defensive line, but this team comes in having been shredded in their last 3 games, allowing 529.3 ypg and 41 ppg over that stretch. During those 3 games this DL has been pounded for 288.7 ypg on the ground at 6.5 yards per pop.. Not good numbers at all when your about to face an Ohio State squad that has averaged 263.6 rushing ypg at 5.8 ypc on the year, including 309.3 ypg and 6.4 ypc in their last 3 games. Oh boy, will Braxton Miller and company have a field day in this one. On the other side of the ball we have a Purdue squad that has averaged 386.5 ypg and 32.8 ppg on the year, but away from home they have struggled averaging just 288 ypg and 17 ppg. I know that OSU has struggled with their defense of late, but after allowing 49 points last week to Indiana you can bet that Urban Meyer will be looking for a much better effort from his stop troops in this one. Ohio State really has nothing to play for this year, but Urban is trying to build for the future. Last week they had a big lead vs Indiana and nearly lost in in the end, winning by just 3. He will make sure his team stays focused and play the entire 60 minutes. Purdue will not be let back in this one. Ohio State by 25+ points in this one.
4 UNIT PLAY
LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 over Idaho: Google News Play I have had the pulse of the La Tech Bulldogs this year and they have been very good to me. This is a team that has an unstoppable offense as they come in averaging 538.7 ypg and a whopping 53.8 ppg. Last week they took on a Texas A&M team that had a decent defense and put up 57 points on them. La Tech has now played and SEC Defense a Big 10 defense and an ACC defense and have averaged 51 ppg in the 3 games. So what will they do vs an Idaho team that has allowed 55.7 ppg in their last 3 road games. In that stretch they allowed 63 points to an LSU offense that is having offensive problems and last week they allowed 38 points to a Texas State team that was averaging just 18.8 ppg vs FBS foes prior to that game. Even more troubling for Idaho may be their offense as they were able to put up just 7 points on a Texas State team that had allowed 35 ppg vs FBS teams prior to that game. Overall the Vandals are 111th in total offense (315.5 ypg) and 121st in scoring 14.3. Even vs a soft defense like the Bulldogs I just don’t see Idaho putting up enough points to keep this one close. La Tech is off their first loss of the year and teams in that situation usually struggle, but not this time. La Tech can still have a special season and will now turn their sights to a WAC title, so I don’t expect them to let down here. This one just has blowout written all over it.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
TENNESSEE +20 over Alabama: We all know how god the Bama defense is, but after Michigan who have the really played? An Arkansas team that was without QB Wilson, Ole Miss, a Missouri team that was a using a backup QB and Backup center and a couple of Sun Belt squad. This defense hasn’ t has not been tested by the passing attack they will face this week. This Tennessee offense has a lot of pop as they have averaged 4872 ypg and 38 ppg on the year so far. In their last 3 games they have put up 510.3 ypg and 39.3 ppg and two of those games were on the road vs a couple of solid defenses in Georgia and Miss State. The Vols have thrown for 299 ypg and should be able to move the ball on this untested Bama secondary. On defense the Vols are poor, but Bama is mostly a power running team, and that should eat clock and shorten the game which will not allow them to run away and hide in this one. The defense won’t keep this one close, but I believe it will be their offense that will have enough big plays to keep this one under the number. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST Any team with a defense that allows 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in previous game. This play is 35-6 the last 10 seasons.
LSU -3 over TEXAS A&M: The Tigers of LSU showed a bit better offense last week vs a tough South Carolina defense. They are off BB tough games vs South Carolina and Florida, but this is still a huge game because they are not out of the National picture race just yet. A loss here though would knock them out. The tigers do have Bama on deck but they do have a week off after this one, so they will be fully focused for the task at hand. The Aggies do have the advantage on offense, but are clearly out matched on the defensive sided of the ball and I believe that will cost them here big time. The Aggie defense ranks 73 overall and 111th vs the pass and that could have Mettenberger looking at a solid day. The Aggie offense is 6th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense, but in their only game vs a defense of this caliber (Florida), they were able to put up just 17 points (0 in second half) and just 334 yards. Now they face a Tigers defense that is 2nd in the nation in total defense (219.6 ypg), 2nd vs the pass (130.6 ypg) and 8th in points allowed (14 ppg). It will not be all that easy for A&M to move the ball in this game. The team with the better defense should win this game and that is clearly on the side of the Tigers. They have momentum from last weeks win over South Carolina and have a week off before Bama, so look for a focused effort from this squad as they win by at least a TD.
Stanford/ California Under 49: The Cal Bears are starting to play much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have allowed just 17 points in each of their last 2 games. The Cal defense has allowed 403 ypg and 26.5 ppg at home this year, but they will be taking on a Stanford squad that pays very conservative on the road, thus not scoring many points. Stanford has had just 2 road games this year, but they were both big games (like this one) and that has them playing conservative and they have scored just 13 points in each of those games. Overall Stanford has scored 21 points or less in 4 of their 6 games. The Cal offenses is starting to come around again as they have put up 74 points in their last 2 games, but they will be going up against a very tough Stanford defense in this one. Stanford had one bad defensive game, but if you take out the 48 points they allowed vs Arizona (In OT) then they have allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg in their other 5 games. Both of these defense are in fine form right now and I don't expect allot of points in this one. Look for high 30's at best in this one.
South Carolina/ Florida Under 41: Google News Play Both of these defense are solid and really playing at a high level right now and that should keep the scoring down. The Florida Gators have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 297 ypg and a mere 12.3 ppg on the year. They have also allowed just 2.2 ppg in the 3rd quarters this year and 1.7 ppg in the 4th, so their defense is even tougher in the second half of games. The South Carolina defense has also been very tough this year as they have allowed just 12.3 ppg on the year and for the first time in 11 games (dating back to last year) they allowed more than 20 points in the loss to LSU last week. Both teams like to run the ball and with two elite defenses I just don't see more than 35 points in this one.
3 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY
Play AGAINST any CFB road faves if they have a win pct of .600 or less and are off an OT win in which they scored at least 24 points in that win. Teams in this spot are 3-17-1 ATS. Play ON Central Michigan +3.5 over Ball State.
Play AGAINST any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater, off its first loss of the year, if they were favored and allowed 35 or more points in the loss – and they won 9 or more games last season. Teams in this spot are 3-17 ATS. Play ON Kansas State +2.5 over WEST VIRGINIA
Over the last 3 seasons, Notre Dame has gone 11-1 to the Under if they allowed 14 points or less in their last game. Play Notre Dame/ BYU Under 40.
John Ryan
Western Michigan vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State
The simulator shows a high probability that Kent State will win this game by four or more points. Kent State as posted a 5-1 season record and have covered all the games they have won. They have won four straight to the number by a combined margin of 60 ½ points or slightly better than 15 points per game. Their first tow wins of this streak they were installed as dogs and now the line is just beginning to reflect the talent of this Kent State team. Still, the line is nowhere close to where this team has been playing and how they are improving on both sides of the ball each week. Last week they traveled to West Point and soundly defeated the Cadets of Army 31-17. In this game they set a season high gaining 283 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Western Michigan has had their problems defending the run this season allowing 278 rushing yards to Toledo and 168 last week to Ball State. Where WM has it’s issues is in the secondary where every team has complete at least 55% of their past attempts. Kent State is certainly a run-first offensive scheme, but this will set up big play through play action and read-option plays. I like Kent State to win this game easily.