Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, October 22

MLB

St. Louis at Texas
The Cardinals look to bounce back from their Game 2 loss and build on their 12-3 record in their last 15 games as a road underdog. St. Louis is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165)

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.032; Texas (Harrison) 15.711
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+165); Under

CFL Picks

Montreal at Winnipeg
The Bluebombers look to bounce back from their 24-10 loss at Edmonton last week and build on their 10-2-1 ATS record in their last 13 games following a SU defeat. Winnipeg is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bluebombers favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1 1/2)

Game 495-496: Montreal at Winnipeg (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 114.565; Winnipeg 117.453
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 3; 55
Vegas Line: Montreal by 1 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1 1/2); Over

Game 497-498: BC at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 119.337; Hamilton 116.056
Dunkel Line: BC by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: BC by 1; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-1); Under

NHL

Buffalo at Tampa Bay
The Lightning look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 home games. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105)

Game 1-2: Minnesota at Vancouver (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.873; Vancouver 11.041
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+180); Under

Game 3-4: Nashville at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 9.702; Calgary 11.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-140); Over

Game 5-6: San Jose at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.416; Boston 11.780
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over

Game 7-8: Toronto at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.698; Montreal 11.426
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-125); Under

Game 9-10: Columbus at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.298; Ottawa 11.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-145); Under

Game 11-12: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.349; Philadelphia 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+155); Over

Game 13-14: New Jersey at Pittsbugh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.018; Pittsburgh 11.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Under

Game 15-16: Detroit at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.334; Washington 12.927
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Over

Game 17-18: Carolina at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.674; Winnipeg 9.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-110); Under

Game 19-20: Buffalo at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.151; Tampa Bay 12.000
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Over

Game 21-22: NY Islanders at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.055; Florida 10.861
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100); Under

Game 23-24: Colorado at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.784; Chicago 12.701
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200); Over

Game 25-26: NY Rangers at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.169; Edmonton 11.653
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+105); Over

Game 27-28: Dallas at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.564; Los Angeles 11.388
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+160); Under

Hollywood Sports

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Prediction: Texas Tech

Giving Texas Tech four touchdowns is too much wood to lay against a team that is 6th in the FBS in total offense (533.8 YPG) and 9th in the FBS in scoring (43.8 PPG). The Red Raiders (4-2) have lost two games in a row -- but that makes them dangerous here as a road underdog where they have covered 5 of their last 7 games when getting more than ten points. Texas Tech has historically been very reliable in bounce-back situations with their 44-18-1 ATS in their last 63 situations coming off a defeat. The Red Raiders lost to Kansas State by a 41-34 score last week as a 3.5-point favorite -- and they are a decisive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a point spread loss. Remember, Oklahoma (6-0) only defeated Missouri by a 38-28 score on their home turf earlier this season. The Sooners come off a 47-17 win over Kansas last week while holding the Jayhawks to only 252 yards of offense -- but Oklahoma has failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games after holding their previous opponent to 250 yards or less. Take Texas Tech with all those points.

Tradeline Sports

Oklahoma State at Missouri
Play: Oklahoma State -6.5

After a miserable performance in Manhattan against Kansas State, James Franklin, accounted for five touchdowns in Missouri's 52-17 thrashing of Iowa State. On the season, MU sits as the nation's No. 13 offense with an average of 496.2 total yards per contest, but most of their yards have come against the weak and undermanned. In the offensive-minded Big 12 their No. 13 ranking represents only the sixth-best average in the league. The Tigers will have to not only be good Saturday against Oklahoma State they will need Franklin to be his best and the offense will have to gain at least 250 yards on the ground to win. Oki State is 14-4 ATS when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons winning by an average margin of 21 points in this situation. Do you really believe that Missouri can hold the Cowboys to three touchdowns under their season average - 49-plus points per game? Me neither. The Tigers have issues with their field goal kicker and they don't have a big play receiver that can do what any of the top four on the Cowboys sideline can do on any given play.

Ben Burns

Marshall @ Houston
Pick: Houston -22.5

This figures to be one of the bigger "mismatches" on the Saturday board. Houston is a perfect 6-0 on the season, covering the spread in four of those six. In their last two home games, the Cougars won by scores of 56-0 and 56-3. Meanwhile, Marshall has lost three of its four road games and all three of those losses came by double-digits. While the Herd actually covered the spread in a couple of those losses, they're still an awful 28-49-3 ATS their last 80 road lined games. While the Herd have been outscored by a 26.7 to 10.7 margin on the road, the Cougars are outscoring opponents by a 50-12.3 maring at home. Consider laying the points.

Sam Martin

USC at Notre Dame
Prediction: USC

Way too many points for Notre Dame to be laying here, especially against a USC offense that is vastly improved from the beginning of the season. We backed the Trojans last Thursday in their blowout win against Cal, and not only is their passing game effective, but their rush defense is also very good. That's important here, as ND relies on their ground game to open up the secondary, and we think USC does have a shot at winning this game outright. This big line is a gift, and we'll gladly take the points here. 5* Play on USC.

Matt Fargo

North Carolina @ Clemson
Pick: North Carolina +10.5

Clemson has been on an absolute roll and there is no reason to think the public won't be all over the Tigers once again. They are reaching a territory this program has not seen in a long time and it may be time to bail. As of Wednesday, 87 percent of the betting action has come in on Clemson and that will likely only go up as we get closer to game day. The Tigers are a perfect 7-0 straight up and a perfect 6-0 ATS against FBS teams so with the public once again riding this string, we will sell while it is high.

North Carolina is coming off a loss against Miami last week as it outgained the Hurricanes by 118 total yards but its comeback fell short after falling behind by 24 points. The Tar Heels will be facing a strong offense so they cannot fall behind early like they did it each of their last two games so it will be up to the defense to hold its own and for the offense to finally get some early production. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more.

North Carolina will have one goal in mind and that is to control the clock which means plenty from the running game and that should not be an issues. Clemson's quest will be to slow down running back Giovani Bernard, who will be trying to become the first back in North Carolina history with six consecutive 100-yard games. The Tar Heels have some size up front, so Clemson's defensive line may get its toughest test of the season. North Carolina's offensive line checks in at close to an average of 320 lbs.

On the other side, the Tar Heels are ranked 24th in the country in scoring defense and while Clemson is coming off the most ever points it has scored in an ACC road game, this is as of the tougher tests it will have. When facing the two toughest defenses through six FBS games, Clemson was held to its lowest offensive output against Florida St. and Virginia Tech, an average of 383 ypg, which was over 100 ypg fewer than its season average. So don't expect a repeat of last week.

The comeback and subsequent win last week by Clemson was no doubt impressive but with that comes public backing as expected as well as a letdown of sorts. The Tar Heels fall into that contrarian situation. Play against teams that are coming off a road win scoring 38 or more points, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential actually favoring the play-on teams by +5.4 ppg. 3* North Carolina Tar Heels

Dave Essler

Mississippi / Arkansas Under 56.5

Arkansas simply should not be able to maintain the intensity of two home games against Texas A & M and Auburn, and before that playing AT Alabama. On top of that, Ole Miss CAN run the ball, the defending of which is not a strength of the Hogs. So, I would fully expect them to try and control the ball/clock in this one. On top of that, a number like this in an Arkansas game seems to be begging for me to take the over. Not this time, and not on the road.

GoodFella

Purdue +4

I really see Purdue as a live home dog here. They are catching "#23 ranked" Illinois in a "sandwich scheduling spot" here. They are coming off a 17-7 loss at home to Ohio St last weekend, & they travel to play AT Penn St. following this game at Purdue.....Illinois has played ONE ROAD GAME all season...and that was at lowly Indiana....I really look for Purdue to be very up for this home game, and think they come out fired up, right out of the gate & give Illinois all they want in this game. I would not be surprised with the outright win from Purdue in this spot, so I will grab the +4 with the Boilermakers.

Larry Ness

Wake Forest vs Duke
Play: Wake Forest

Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons opened the 2011 season back on September 1 with a Thursday night game in the Carrrier Dome vs Syracuse. Wake allowed a 29-14 fourth-quarter lead to slip away in that one, as the Orange scored two TDs (converted a two-pointer on the second one) to send the game to OT. Syracuse would walk away with a 36-29 win, despite Wake outgaining them 406-to 299 in total yards. However, Wake didn’t let that loss get to them, as the Demon Deacons reeled off four consecutive wins, opening ACC play 3-0 for the first time in school history, However, the team’s four-game winning streak came to an abrupt halt last Saturday at home vs Va Tech, as after Wake opened a 10-0 lead, the Demon Deacons were outscored the rest of the way 38-7. QB Logan Thomas (two passing TDs on 280 yards while adding two more TDs on the ground) plus RB Wilson (136 YR with one TD) proved to be too much for Wake’s D. Wake travels to Durham this Saturday, where they’ve won five starlight visits, as well as 11 consecutive meetings overall vs the Blue Devils. Duke saw its three-game win streak snapped last week at home vs FSU, as the Seminoles, on a three-game losing streak of their own, won 41-16 while making it 17-0 all-time vs the Blue Devils.Duke allowed 481 yards to FSU (239 passing / 242 rushing)m and that defense should have all sorts of trouble with Wake QB Tanner Price. He’s completing 61.5% for an average of 267.7 YPG with 12 TDs and just three INTs. Wake running game, once the bed rock of Grobe’s offense, is averaging a poor 103.5 YPG plus a sad-sack 2.8 YPC but Duke’s allowing 4.4 YPC on the season, so Price may get a little more help from his running game in this one. Duke’s running game is even worse than Wake’s, averaging 92.0 YPG on 3.0 YPC and while QB Renfree is completing 69.0% for an average of 264.5 YPG, he has just five TDs passes all season (on 229 attempts). I doubt he’s much of a match vs Price. I’ve already noted that Wake’s won 11 straight overall in this series, including five straight in Durham, although I’ll add here that they’ve never scored less than 41 points in any win. While Duke entered this season 22-106 SU since 2000 (that’s an average of just two wins per season over 11 years), the Blue Devils, at 3-3 so far in 2001, have already surpassed te team’s yearly average win total. That being said, I don’t see them having much of a chance here of turning around recent series history, considering the are only getting about a FG. Let’s remember that Duke is a pathetic 15-56 SU (.211) at home since 2000 and just 8-21 ATS as a home dog (usually getting WAY more than a FG!) since 2005. Take the visitor, as Wake wins again in Durham.

Marc Lawrence

Oregon St. at Washington St.
Prediction: Oregon St.

You’re about to witness history tonight in Pullman. And while it may not be as important as Neil Armstrong stepping on the Moon, it is one giant step for Cougar football as HC Paul Wulff has been given the label of favorite for the first time ever in a conference matchup. Wulff has faced 30 Pac-10/12 foes and all 30 times he has taken points, going 3-27 SU in those games. One of the three conference wins that the Cougars have garnered under Wulff was last season in Corvallis – as 23.5-point dogs! However, the Beavers’ last five trips to Martin Stadium have resulted in three SU wins and all five ATS covers. Furthermore, the Cougs’ three FBS wins this season have come against foes that are just 4-16 SU combined on the season. As we like to profess, those who ignore history are bound to repeat it. The feeling here is the Beavers look to be hungry with revenge and they get our call tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oregon State.

Steve Merril

Penn State vs. Northwestern
Play: Penn State -4

There comes a time when a team’s line value has gone as low as it can go. That time is now for Penn St. The Nittany Lions have been, on average, a 9-point favorite in their games so far this season. They have out-scored their opponents by an average of just 6 points per game this season. So even though they come into this game with a 6-1 SU record, they own a dismal 1-5 ATS record. The fact that Penn St is failing to cover pointspreads is definitely reflected in the fact that they are a mere 4-point road favorite against a far inferior Northwestern team. The Penn St defense has been phenomenal this season. They are 6th in the nation in points allowed (12 points per game) and they are 6th in yardage allowed (264 yards per game). The Nittany Lions rank 7th against the pass (161 yards per game) and 22nd against the run (103 yards per game). With stout defensive numbers like that, Penn St should own a much better pointspread record. But their offense has stalled them. They are only averaging 22 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. However, we should recognize that they have played Alabama and Temple who are 1st and 5th respectively in the nation in yards allowed this season. It should also be noted that while the Penn St offense has struggled scoring points, they have out-gained their opponents in each game this season with the exception of the Alabama game. Penn St’s offense should get going against Northwestern considering the Nittany Lions rolled up 531 yards of total offense against the Wildcats last season while winning 35-21. The Wildcats have slipped drastically since their opening day win at Boston College. They have had plenty of opportunities to have more than 2 wins, but they have not found the ability to close anyone out so far this season. Quarterback Dan Persa is a decent college quarterback, but his ability to read keys off of the option will be greatly reduced against a tough Penn St defense. Northwestern has been out-gained in all but two of their games this season, and we do not expect that to change this week. The Nittany Lions are tremendously undervalued in this game so we’ll lay the short price with them on the road at Northwestern.

James Patrick Sports

Tennessee vs. Alabama

With a showdown with LSU looming on Nov. 5, this week's visit from Tennessee has all the makings of a trap game for No. 3 Alabama. Lot of points to lay the Volunteers who are (6-1-1) ATS in their last (8) meetings in Alabama with the Road team (13-2-1) ATS in their last (16) meetings. Big Game James Patricks Saturday College Football complimentary selection in SEC action is Tennessee Volunteers.

BIG AL

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
PICK: Oklahoma -28.5

Last week, we played against Oklahoma, and took Kansas +37 points, and the Jayhawks rewarded us with a pointspread win. But this week, we will play ON the Sooners, as Oklahoma falls into a 119-55 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back-to-back wins. Additionally, Texas Tech lost at home to Kansas State last week, 41-34, and teams that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game are an awful 29% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off back to back 30-point wins if our 'play-against' team (here, Texas Tech) is not getting 48 points! The Sooners have won 39 straight in Norman, and seven in a row vs. the Red Raiders at home. Take Oklahoma minus the points.

Tony George

Georgia Tech +3

The Hurricanes laying a premium number here as GT off a loss and Miami off a huge win. Miami has covered just 20 out of their last 63 home games and will have issues in the middle of their defense stopping the vaunted GT triple option attack. GT was a 2 for 8 passing last week for 24 yards against Virginia, I think their ability to penetrate the run defense of Miami opens up the passing game in the middle seam and they find some success through the air and have more balance this week. Miami off a big win last week at North Carolina and are playing better, but in this high scoring game, and the more capable offense that can eat up yards on the ground will prevail, and that is GT. Paul Johnson is a great coach and will have the Yellow Jackets ready to bounce back after 3 turnovers cost them huge last week.