Chris Jordan
Cincinnati at South Florida
Give me this game a few weeks back, and I might wonder about the home underdog Bulls. But South Florida has lost two in a row - at Pittsburgh and at Connecticut - after winning its first four of the season. Perhaps that win at Notre Dame was a fluke, I'm not sure. But following that season-opening victory with wins over Ball State, Florida A&M and Texas-El Paso surely didn't help the Bulls as they entered Big East competition.
Now they have to play a surging Cincinnati team that has won four straight, is 5-1 on the year and 1-0 in conference play and can make a big statement with a win on the road in league play. Usually I'd be bragging about the Cincinnati offense, and I actually will shortly, but what's impressed me about the Bearcats this season has been their defense. Other than the 45-23 loss at Tennessee in the second week of the season - an outcome I think would be different if they met again now - this stop unit hasn't allowed more than 16 points in any of their games. Their scoring defense ranks 15th in the nation, allowing 16.5 point per game, while the defense is 28th in the country.
And while I know South Florida has a balanced offensive attack, Cincinnati ranks fourth in the country with its rushing defense, and by taking away the ground game from the Bulls, it forces them to go to the air, which the 'Cats will already be expecting.
Last week's 16-10 loss to a UConn team that had lost four of its previous five games exposed some weaknesses in this South Florida team, and has somewhat told me Skip Holtz's bunch is on its way to medocrity once again. This is just the wrong time to be hosting a team like Cincinnati, which is playing with such vigor, it's showing it refuses to falter in any situation. The wrong team is favored in this game, so I'm taking the points.
I see the line is flat +3 points across the board, so in the event this one stays close and comes down to the wire, do the smart thing and buy the half point up on this one and take +3' points.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Oregon State at Washington State
It's a quiet week, in terms of games per day, as there are some college football games scattered throughout the next five days, and the World Series getting underway on Wednesday. So I'm going to reveal one of the best value numbers I've already played, late Sunday night, at a Station Casinos sports book in Las Vegas. I love Washington State -4 in its home state against Oregon State this coming Saturday night in Seattle, as I believe the Cougars will outclass the struggling Beavers and win this going away by double digits.
I'm quite aware that Oregon State has covered nine of the last 11 meetings, while winning three of the last four and five of the last seven, but the fact is, I don't believe coach Mike Riley is going to see his Beavers make their traditional second-half run this season. It's become a running joke in Corvallis, that the season doesn't begin until the last five or six weeks of the season, as they generally close out on an incredible winning streak that makes them bowl eligible. But I'm sorry, this doesn't look like an improving team that opened the season with a 29-28 loss to Cal State-Sacramento - in Corvallis.
Washington State, on the other hand, has a lot to play for after getting blasted by Stanford at home, on homecoming weekend, 44-14. The Cougars administration should've scheduled this week as their homecoming game, so they could celebrate a win in Pullman. Instead, they need to take their frustrations out in Seattle at CenturyLink Field.
The Cougars might have been outscored the past couple weeks 72-39, during a two-game skid, but they still have the 11th-best passing attack in the nation, and 24th-best scoring offense. And I just feel that'll be too much for Oregon State, which has the ninth-worst pass efficient defense, and 90th-ranked pass defense in the nation. Even further, the Beavers are allowing 31.83 points per game, 96th in the land.
To think OSU can traveland compete with the Cougars, who won in Corvallis last season and would like to get revenge "at home" - as the de facto home team - for a loss to the Beavers in Pullman in 2009, is a joke.
I know the road team is 4-1 SU in this conference clash since 2006, but the Beavers just don't have the personnel to hang with the explosive Cougars, who won their first two home games by a combined final of 123-28, over Idaho State and UNLV. And for what it's worth, as much as I believe the Cougars are the home team in this one, they're both on the road. This is a step down in class for Wazzou, after last week's debacle against BCS No. 8 team Stanford.
Get this game cheap, as the line is sure to climb. Play the Cougars.
5♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Brad Diamond Sports
Auburn + over LSU
Here we have quite possibly the LETDOWN GAME OF THE WEEK. The kids from Baton Rouge show up barely #1 in the BCS pissing off Little Nicky and the Tide backers. Not to worry Tide, early November is not far off the calendar. For LSU, the Saturday afternoon sun brings Auburn into Tiger Stadium, where the home unit leads the SU series 24-20. Last year Auburn defeated LSU 24-17 behind 440 yards of rushing offense. Gone from that team is QB Cam Newton, but the 5-2 start this season has some experts giving great respect to the few recruiting classes of HC Gene Chizik (32-26). Auburn survived a very injured Florida last week 17-6 in game that booked just seven completed passes for the War Eagles. With a very fast offense, but limited over top, their chances of winning here are very slim, especially considering the REVENGE MOTIVE for LSU. Les Miles is 97-38 SU as the LSU head coach and now approaches the most critical part of the 2011 season. The next three of five games, include Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Statistically on defense, the Tigers are #4 nationally holding opponents to 251 yards per game, while running up only 369 yards per game (#80) on offense. Recently, QB Jordan Jefferson has been squeezed back into the lineup in certain run and option situations giving opposing defenses more complex coverage issues. Without question Miles has played the tedious morale card wisely, touting the Lee/Jefferson roles as “dual” in nature. LSU stopped Tennessee 38-7 compiling 260 yards on the ground over 5 yards per carry. They should have the same success Saturday rolling up yards and a victory in another celebratory affair in front of Mike VI. However, we caution when laying your hard earned dollars this time, as LSU is looking down the barrel at their #1 BCS ranking and a bye week, no less a date with Alabama on November 5th. No matter, what technical trends or systems you can locate in the free world, EMOTION is the winning angle on Saturday with the line movement accruing even more value.
Scott Spreitzer
NC State at Virginia
Play: NC State
No Russell Wilson? No problem. At least not in the Wolfpack's passing game. Wilson, who threw 25 INTs the last two seasons combined, is off to Wisconsin, while new QB Mike Glennon has been taking much better care of the football. Glennon has connected on 64% of his passes, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, with 16 TDs and only 4 INTs. I expect Glennon to have a strong game against Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers have played well, but must take on a diverse offense with no less than four dependable receivers, Glennon, and a solid RB in James Washington. NC State is coming off a bye week and will be well rested and prepared. The Cavs are off a big win over Ga Tech, but their previous wins have come against soft opposition. While they covered last week, they're just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 ACC games. Meanwhile, the Pack have been a terrific underdog money-maker. They're on a 27-11-1 ATS underdog run on the road, including 9-3-1 when getting 3 1/2 to 10 points. I'm backing NC State on Saturday.
Charlie Scott
Air Force vs. Boise State
Play: Air Force +30
The Bookies have Not kept it a secret that the Public Top 10 College Teams have been Winning & Winning Big No matter how high the line is. Boise St is 1 of those public Teams ! Air Force is a quality disciplined team and keep in mind that the Boise defense while very good is Not used to playing against the option. Using Last week's Gold Sheet Power Rating Boise st should be -23. I went back 5 Years and the most I could find Air Force as a dog is 1 game +20 and another +19. This Season at home vs TCU AF was a +1.5 dog, at Notre Dame +14.5 today @ Boise +30, just doesn't make sense.
Dennis Macklin
North Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: North Carolina +11½
Put the Clemson Tigers on upset alert. The Dabs have sleepwalked to wins over Boston College and Maryland the last two weeks, coming from 18 down in the second half last week vs the Terps. North Carolina is athletic and willing and may just have the people to stop the Clemson train. The Heels are 7-3 ATS L10 on the series and have covered eight straight as a touchdown+ underdog. UNC QB Renner is completing 75% of his passes and RB Bernard should have some success vs Tiger stop unit that was torched all day long by Maryland first-time starter. UNC rallied from 24 down last week to go down to the wire with Miami providing further evidence that the back door is wide open, Take the points.
Black Widow
1* Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan OVER 57.5
Both Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan feature soft defenses which should lead to a ton of points in this in-state rivalry Saturday. WMU gives up 25.9 PPG and 404 total yards/game, while EMU allows 26.6 PPG and 379 yards/game. The Broncos feature a potent offense that is putting up 31.0 points and 408 yards/game. Their strength is a passing attack that produces 68.1 percent completions and 281 passing yards/game. EMU's weakness on defense is their secondary, where they are allowing 231 passing yards/game and 62.9 percent completions. EMU's strength is a rushing attack that produces 229 yards/game and 5.1/carry. Western Michigan's biggest weakness is a run defense that yields 217 yards/game and 5.9/carry. As you can see, both team's biggest strengths are their opposition's biggest weaknesses. This should mean that both squads will be able to move the ball at will, which is exactly what happened in last year's meeting. WMU beat EMU 45-30 in 2010 for 75 combined points as the Broncos compiled 518 total yards (349 passing), while the Eagles accounted for 491 total yards (277 rushing). We expect a similar result in their 2011 showdown. Take the OVER 57.5 points here.
Jack Jones
Texas Tech +30
The Oklahoma Sooners are getting way too much respect Saturday night against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. This is a team they have struggled with recently, and I don't see them being able to cover this massive spread in their 2011 meeting. The Sooners are clearly overvalued in this one.
Both of Texas Tech's losses this season have come against ranked opponents in Texas A&M and Kansas State by a combined 12 points. They even outgained Kansas State 580-339, but committed four turnovers and allowed two return touchdowns. They also held a 523-393 yard edge on Texas A&M.
Texas Tech can light up the scoreboard with the best of 'em. The Red Raiders rank sixth in the nation with 533.8 yards per game and ninth with an average of 43.8 points. Seth Doege is one of the best quarterbacks in the country that nobody talks about. Doege is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 2,167 yards and 18 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.
The Red Raiders are 3-3 against Oklahoma over the last six seasons. Texas Tech is 44-18-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a S.U. loss, including 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. In fact, they are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games off a home loss. Oklahoma is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. Bet Texas Tech Saturday.
Jimmy Boyd
Notre Dame -9
Last November, Notre Dame snapped an 8-game losing streak against USC with a 20-16 victory in Los Angeles. I believe that win will serve as the turning point in this rivalry.
The Irish haven't played since Oct. 8, and this will be the first night game at Notre Dame Stadium since 1990. In other words, the Golden Domers will be chomping at the bit to get on the field, and they'll be pumped up by the electric atmosphere.
Bye weeks have typically treated the Irish well as they are 60-15-2 all-time following an off week. The Fighting Irish are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a bye week.
The USC defense has been extremely suspect against the pass. In fact, it ranks 105th in the country with 271.7 passing yards allowed per game. That likely doesn't bode well for the Trojans. Led by QB Tommy Rees and WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame has one of the best passing attacks in the country. Floyd will be a nightmare cover for the USC secondary. We're talking about a guy who is tied for 6th with nearly 9 catches per game. He also ranks 13th nationally with 106.5 receiving yards per contest. Don't be surprised if he makes some noise in the return game as well. Coach Kelly has said he'll use Floyd as a returner this week.
The USC offense is pretty one-dimensional, and after losing leading rusher Marc Tyler to a shoulder injury, it will likely become even more pass happy. This will allow the Notre Dame front to put a hand in the dirt and really get after Matt Barkley.
There is also a strong situational element in support of our play. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team with a winning record, are 30-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 18.1 points. We'll take Notre Dame.
Steve Janus
Missouri +7.5
I really like the Tigers getting over a touchdown on their home field. Missouri's three losses this season have came against Arizona State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State, all of which were played on the road. Two of the losses were decided by a touchdown, and the other a 10-point loss against the Sooners.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Missouri won this game outright. Oklahoma State has a high-powered offense that can put up a lot of points, but they have the 98th ranked defense in the country. The Tigers offense averages 35.5 ppg, and I expect them to match what Oklahoma State does offensively. Don't count out the Missouri defense either. They are going to make some stops and force Oklahoma State to punt the ball.
Missouri is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. BET THE TIGERS!
SPORTS WAGERS
MICHIGAN ST +7/+244 over Wisconsin
8:00 PM EST. We’re going to play this one on both the money line and the point-spread. The betting public has fallen in love with the Badgers because they’ve won each of their first six games by at least 30 points. However, the Badger’s have played a bunch of marshmallows, with the only true test coming against Nebraska at home. They won easy but Nebraska was overmatched and again, the game was in Wisconsin. The only time the Badgers left campus was to play Northern Illinois in Chicago on a neutral field, but most of the fans were wearing Wisconsin colors. Another reason the line is high is because Sparty is coming off a big win over Michigan and a letdown is expected. In reality, they weren’t even that sharp in that game. They committed 13 penalties that resulted in a whole bunch of nullified plays and first downs for the Wolverines, yet MSU still won by 14. Last year, the Spartans were a –3 in the turnover department and beat Wisconsin 34-24. There’s not a lot of difference between last year’s two clubs and this year’s two clubs and although the Badgers are improved, so, too are the Spartans. Michigan State ranks behind only the Alabama Crimson Tide in total defense and demonstrated their physicality in its beating of Michigan last week. This team has plenty of offensive weapons as well, and it appears to be peaking just in time for a visit from the Badgers. Wisconsin hasn't won in East Lansing since 2002 and is a touchdown favorite, the largest price laid to a home-standing Michigan State team in the Mark Dantonio era. Expect a response to this insulting line, as the Spartans are every bit as good as the Badgers and they're a lot more battle tested. Play: #390 Michigan State +7 +101 (Risking 2 units) Play: Michigan State +244 (Risking 1 unit).
Georgia Tech +121 over MIAMI
3:30 PM EST. Miami bounced back from a tough loss against the Virginia Tech Hokies by building a big lead at North Carolina and holding on for a 30-24 win despite a tough day for Lamar Miller, who managed just 29 yards on 16 carries. Jacory Harris is playing the best football of his career and has gone three straight games without an interception. Harris and the offense are carrying an unusually bad Miami defense that has been shuffling personnel all year due to injuries and suspensions. The Hurricanes' 48th-ranked scoring defense is a mirage, propped up solely by stellar red zone performance that is masking what is an abysmal unit by any other standard. Don't expect the Canes to get healthy against a Georgia Tech team that rarely fails to finish red zone drives and is poised to deliver its best performance of the season. The loss to the Virginia Cavaliers was the wake-up call the Yellow Jackets needed, as Tech had been playing lackluster football for a month and getting away with it. Paul Johnson knows how to rally the troops. He's 3-0 after Tech's first loss of the season and 8-3 off a loss overall. If the Jackets finally bring their A-game this week, they should pick up a comfortable victory, as Miami's defense is ill-equipped to handle Tech's potent attack. Beyond the defensive woes, Miami is an oft-penalized team for which poor field position is a constant. Tech excels in those areas and brings in the first 3-4 defense the Canes have seen this year. Georgia Tech is still the team it appeared to be before the Jackets brought their C-game last Saturday to a place in which they rarely win. Miami is still a rebuilding outfit under a moderately accomplished first-year staff that enjoys scant home-field advantage at its suburban NFL stadium. Wrong side is favored here. Play: #319 Georgia Tech +121 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +20½ over STANFORD
8:00 PM EST. Stanford has a rookie head coach, hasn't played a winning team yet and is substantially weaker at receiver and linebacker than last year's Orange Bowl squad. However, Stanford still has Andrew Luck, a pair of All-American-caliber offensive linemen, a strong defensive line and a trio of tight ends who cause matchup problems for everyone. That said, three touchdowns is pretty rich to lay on a 5-1 Washington team that's far better than the squad that took a beating here last year. The Huskies have the Pac-12's leading touchdown-maker in QB Keith Price, the league's leading rusher not named "LaMichael" and a much more diverse and effective receiving corps than Jake Locker had at his disposal last year. The Washington defense has been disappointing this year but Nick Holt's crew has played much better of late. Washington hasn't seen an offense like Stanford's, and the thin Huskies linebacking corps will have trouble covering the outstanding Cardinal tight ends. But the Huskies can put some points up themselves, and with the physical Chris Polk running the ball for UW, this will be the game Stanford finally feels the loss of defensive stalwart Shayne Skov, who suffered an injury at Arizona. Expect to see both sides move the ball as the Huskies get some moral measure of redemption for last year's blowout by hanging around in this game. Play #385 Washington +20½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
NOTRE DAME –9½ over USC
This game sets up poorly for the first USC team in school history to be 5-1 and unranked.
USC is a young, injury-riddled team whose principal contributors are mostly first and second-year players. The Trojans have played a season and a half of alarmingly mediocre pass defense under coordinator Monte Kiffin and are now down to just three healthy cornerbacks. The Matt Barkley-to-Robert Woods combo is one of the nation's best, but the team is still trying to find someone to boost a struggling ground game that ranks just 77th in rushing yards per game and 101st in rushing touchdowns. The Irish, meanwhile, are still a top-10 team in disguise. A whopping 10 turnovers cost Notre Dame two games that it dominated on both sides of the ball, and the two checks in the loss column have masked the overall excellence of this squad. The Irish have been turnover-free the past two games, and the results are starting to look like the ones that Brian Kelly got at his previous three coaching stops. Kelly is 8-1 after an open date, and for a team as talented, experienced and healthy as this Irish edition, anything in single digits is a reasonable price to lay against an outmanned USC squad. Play: #382 Notre Dame –9½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
LOS ANGELES -½ -104 over Dallas
When things are going your way a lot of good things happen. Case in point the Dallas Stars. They played in Anaheim last night and 13 seconds in they got one of the flukiest goals you’ll ever see. One again they were badly outplayed and once again they won a game they probably shouldn’t have after being outshot 36-19. The Stars keep getting outplayed but keep winning and that’s a trend that is about to end. Dallas has been outshot 76-37 over its last two games, both wins and the only club they really outplayed this season has been the winless Jackets. The Kings have won three in a row after a two-game trip to Europe to open the season. They’re coming off back-to-back shutouts over the Blues and Coyotes in which they outscored that pair by a combined 7-0. The scary thing is that they’re going to improve, as they get more familiar with one another. The Kings have created a lot of buzz in L.A. and the joint was absolutely rocking in its only home game of the year when they knocked off the Blue Notes 5-0. This is just its second home game of the season and with the misleading 6-1 Stars coming in expect the Kings best performance to date. Play: Los Angeles -½ -104 (Risking 3.12 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH -½ +107 over New Jersey
Marc Andre Fleury is on his game and the Penguins, despite some key injuries, have been just as sharp. They made the Canadiens look like a Junior-A team in its last game and when you watch these Pens you get a sense that no team is more focused. James Neal has been spectacular. Kris Letang returns after serving his two-game suspension and they may even get Evgeni Malkin back for this game. The real kicker is that Sidney Crosby is close and will likely return before the end of the month. In practice, Crosby has been flying all over the place and what that does is get the rest of the team completely amped up. The Devils played last night and looked liked the Devils of last year. They took the Sharkies to OT but don’t buy it. They were clearly outclassed and they’re not taking a step down in class against these Penguins. The Penguins are the most determined team in the NHL in this early going and they should have little trouble disposing of this rival. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +107 (Risking 3 units).
Detroit +132 over WASHINGTON
Two undefeated clubs meet here. The Caps are 6-0 after beating the Flyers 5-2 in what has to be considered a little misleading in terms of the scoreboard. A large portion of play was in the Caps end and the Flyers lost because of goaltending. Vokoun was great, Bryzgalov was not. The Caps other five wins were also rather unimpressive, as they beat a Panthers team playing its third game in four nights, they beat Ottawa 2-1, Tampa 6-5, Pittsburgh 3-2 in OT in a game they were outshot 41-19 and finally they beat the Canes, also in OT, on opening night. Now they get a Wings team that is playing the tail-end of back-to-backs but Detroit had been off for six days before barely breaking a sweat in last night’s 5-2 win over Columbus. The Red Wings are 5-0. They’ve outscored the opposition 18-7 in those five games and two of those goals were scored against them in the third period when they had a 5-1 lead. The Red Wings are an elite team but we’re not convinced that the Caps are just yet. In any event, when we can take back a tag like this on Detroit, you can pencil us in, as they’re more than capable of beating anyone, anytime. Play: Detroit +132 (Risking 3 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +105 over Montreal
Important game that could ultimately decide which team wins the East. Montreal has won four in a row, however, the last three have all been nail-biters, including a six-point win over these same Bombers three weeks ago in Winnipeg. The Als return to the scene of that game and they’re not likely to be as sharp. When they won here by six and were outgained in that game, the Als were playing their second game in 12 days. Montreal will now play its third game in 12 days after games against rivals Toronto and Hamilton. That makes this assignment a tough one indeed. The Bombers will be ready. They return home after two straight on the road and after playing four of its last five on the road. We could go into all the stats and who’s hot and who’s not but this one is all about playing against the Als in a rather difficult scheduling assignment. Three games in 12 days ios tough enough early in the year, but this late in the year, after 15 games and a lot of bruising punishment, give the Bombers in Swagerville a huge scheduling advantage. Play: Winnipeg +105 (Risking 2 units).
B.C. Lions –1 over HAMILTON
The Lions were not at their best last week but still managed to win over a game Riders squad. The Leos have now won eight in a row and simply put, this team is too hot to be wagering against and therefore we will not. B.C. has been a little off for consecutive weeks and if they’re on their game they should bury this erratic host. You really never know what you’re going to get from the Tigercats. They look like gangbusters one week and brutally awful the next. The Tabbies have dropped two in a row and four of its past six games. It’s still not known whether Kevin Glenn or Quinton Porter will start at quarterback and the Cats will also be without rookie running back Terry Grant. All this doesn’t add up well for the host and it’s not going to take much for the fans to turn on them if they get off to a rough start. The Lions are no fluke. They come to play and they play to win. Hamilton is a self-destructive club that caves in like a Tijuana back-room breast augmentation when things go wrong. The Cats have only outgained three of their last 10 opponents and they haven’t seen the Lions since July 22, the fourth game of the season when the Lions were still asleep. B.C. has not forgotten that 39-31 loss and things are a whole lot different now. What do they say about paybacks? Play: B.C. Lions –1 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
EZWINNERS
Northwestern Wildcats +4.5
Penn State has a very good defense, but their offense is another story as they struggle to put points on the board. The Nittany Lions are 78th in total offense and 96th in scoring offense. To make matters worse, PSU's best playmaker wide receiver Derek Moye is out with a foot injury. Moye has accounted for 55% of the receiving yards for the struggling Nittany Lion passing game. PSU has not been tested on the road by a team that is capable of putting up points in a hurry in their two road games this season, but both of those games were struggles. PSU knocked off Temple 14-10 and Indiana 16-10 in there two road games and neither of those teams have the quick strike capability of the Wildcats. Last season Northwestern jumped out to a 21-0 lead in Happy Valley, so this spread offense can do some damage against this defense, but if PSU gets into a hole in this one, they don't appear to have the weapons to come back. Penn State is on a 1-8 slide against the spread, Northwestern is 24-8 against the spread in their last thirty two games as an underdog of 3-10 points and the home team is 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve meetings between these two teams. Take the points.
Eric Williams
Illinois vs. Purdue
Play: Illinois -3½
I like the 21st-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini to put a solid spanking on the mediocre Purdue Boilermakers in this Big Ten matchup after suffering a humbling 17-7 defeat at the hands of the rebuilding Ohio State Buckeyes as a 3.5-point home favorite no less. Purdue may be playing at home but they’re coming off a dismal 23-18 loss to Penn State a week ago, though they did manage to cover the spread as a 12-point road underdog. The Boilermakers have alternated SU wins and losses since the start of the regular season, but I think they’re going to suffer consecutive losses to a superior –and desperate – Illinois ballclub. The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games following an SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games while Purdue has compiled an uninspiring 4-9-1 ATS mark in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Freddy Wills
Fresno State vs. Nevada
Play: Nevada -11.5
I don't normally take the large favorites like this, but there are a few things that I like about this game that makes me confident backing a double digit home favorite. For one thing is 3rd downs. Fresno State can't seem to stay on the field only converting 39% of their 3rd down's this year while Nevada has been great allowing opponents just 35.6% conversions on the year and that's a real stat considering who they have played. Their offense on the other hand has been great converting 49% of their 3rd downs. The next thing is red zone defense as Fresno is allowing opponents 75% TD's once they get to the red zone. Nevada should be there plenty on Saturday. The reason they should be there plenty is their offense keeps improving they are 10th in rushing offense this year and Fresno is allowing 5.36 yards per carry over their last 3 games 5.04 on the year. I think Nevada should be able to run whenever they want. Nevada is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 as a home favorite.